SAAB-B.ST

T12.5% portfolio

Saab AB (publ)

Next est. report 2026-10-23 · AMC

Drones '26: Subsea Drones & UUVs Fiscal Spend '24: Jet Makers Global Defense '26: European Warfare & Defense Modern Warfare '26: Defense Primes Modern Warfare '26: Greenland & Arctic Defense Modern Warfare '26: Hypersonics & Missile Defense Modern Warfare '26: Integrators Modern Warfare '26: SONAR & Subsea Systems Modern Warfare '26: Sovereign Military AircraftModern Warfare '26: Warfare in IranTrumpPolicy PreElection Long '24: EU Defense

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Overview

Saab AB (publ) provides defense and security solutions across Aeronautics (Gripen fighters), Dynamics (missiles), Surveillance (radars, GlobalEye), Naval (subma

Saab AB (publ) provides defense and security solutions across Aeronautics (Gripen fighters), Dynamics (missiles), Surveillance (radars, GlobalEye), Naval (submarines), and Combitech (tech services). With 33% from Surveillance and 29% from Dynamics, it serves global militaries and governments, recently securing major contracts for submarines in Poland and Gripen E for Ukraine, driving a record SEK 318 billion backlog.

What They Do (Plain English & Analogies): Saab is like a high-tech workshop for defense and security, building everything from advanced fighter jets, like the Gripen, to submarines that can operate silently underwater. They also make a wide range of weapons, from missiles to anti-tank systems, and sophisticated radar systems that act as the 'eyes and ears' for military forces, capable of seeing air, sea, and land threats simultaneously. Beyond physical hardware, they develop complex software for things like air traffic control, cybersecurity, and training simulations for soldiers. Essentially, if a country needs to defend itself, monitor its airspace, or secure its digital infrastructure, Saab provides many of the cutting-edge tools and expertise to do so, operating across air, land, and sea, and even offering consulting services to help organizations become more resilient to threats.
Very Brief History: Saab AB was incorporated in 1937 in Sweden as Svenska Aeroplan Aktiebolaget, initially focusing on aircraft production. It diversified into automobile manufacturing in the mid-1940s, changing its name to Saab Aktiebolag (AB) in 1965. After a merger in 1969, the automotive division became independent in 1990 and was later acquired by General Motors. Saab AB became independent again in 1995 and strengthened its defense focus with the acquisition of Celsius in 2000. Today, it is primarily a defense and security company headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
"Street Stereotype": Saab is generally perceived by investors and analysts as a leading European defense and security prime contractor, known for its high-tech, innovative solutions, particularly in fighter aircraft (Gripen), submarines, and advanced radar and electronic warfare systems. It's seen as a beneficiary of increased global defense spending, especially in Europe due to geopolitical tensions and NATO expansion, and is often viewed as a 'pure-play' on European rearmament and strategic autonomy.
Subsidiaries On Linked In*: {"subsidiaries":[{"name":"Saab Aeronautics","linkedin_hint":"","notes":"Business area focusing on military and civil aviation technologies."產業: "Aerospace & Defense"},{"name":"Saab Dynamics","linkedin_hint":"","notes":"Business area focusing on ground combat weaponry, missile and torpedo systems, and training & simulation."產業: "Aerospace & Defense"},{"name":"Saab Surveillance","linkedin_hint":"","notes":"Business area focusing on radar systems, electronic warfare, and command & control solutions."產業: "Aerospace & Defense"},{"name":"Saab Naval","linkedin_hint":"","notes":"Business area focusing on naval systems, including submarines, surface combatants, and autonomous vessels. Formerly Saab Kockums."產業: "Aerospace & Defense"},{"name":"Combitech","linkedin_hint":"","notes":"Independent company within Saab, providing technical consulting services, cybersecurity, and digital solutions."產業: "Information Technology & Services"}]}
Customer Sectors & Example Clients: Saab's customers are primarily in the military defense, aerospace, and civil security sectors. Specific clients and customer groups mentioned include: European nations and the pillar of NATO, Sweden, Brazil, Colombia, France (for NLAW), Germany (for Eurofighter electronic warfare capacity and frigate components via TKMS), Poland (for A26 submarines), Ukraine (for Gripen E fighter jets), the U.S. Air Force (for T-7 trainer aircraft) and U.S. Army (for vehicle training systems), Canada (for GlobalEye), Lithuania (for Carl-Gustaf M4), Australia (for surface vessels), and the UAE (for GlobalEye). They also serve air navigation service providers, airports, and airlines globally for air traffic management solutions.
New Customers / Segments They'Re Targeting: Saab is actively targeting new customers for its GlobalEye airborne early warning and control system, with Canada and NATO having selected the system and negotiations for contracts ongoing. They also have 'more in pipeline' for GlobalEye. For the Gripen E fighter, they are diligently working with Ukraine on the 'next batch' after the initial contract. The company is also seeing increasing interest in its Combat Boat from many countries. Furthermore, Saab is investing in and sees big potential in its counter-UAS (unmanned aerial system) portfolio, which is an open-architecture system for detecting and neutralizing aerial threats. They are also pursuing new campaigns for Gripen fighters and exploring industrial collaboration with Poland for submarines and Ukraine for Gripen fighters.
Supply Chain And Sourcing Geographies: Saab's supply chain is global, with significant investments in expanding production capacity across multiple geographies. They have existing and expanding operations in Sweden, including production ramp-up in Karlskrona and Landskrona for naval systems, an automated weapons factory in Linköping, and ammunition manufacturing in Karlskoga. New facilities are being established in the U.S., with a manufacturing facility in Grayling, Michigan, expected to be inaugurated in October, and an Indian factory coming into play early next year. Management highlights that the material supply and the broader supply chain are critical areas of focus, with diligent work to ensure the ecosystem of companies they work with supports their growth journey. This includes putting more in stock (like titanium, aluminum alloys, special steel, and some components), certifying alternative suppliers for redundancy, and insourcing a few things to do it themselves. They acknowledge that managing the supply chain is the biggest bottleneck to faster growth.
Sales Geographies And Expansion Plans: Saab currently sells its products globally, with operations on every continent. Key sales geographies and customer regions mentioned include Sweden, Brazil, Colombia, France, Germany, Poland, Ukraine, the U.S., Canada, Lithuania, Australia, the UAE, and Nordic countries. Sales related to markets outside Sweden accounted for 59% of total sales in 2025. The company is actively pursuing new campaigns, including potential GlobalEye sales within NATO and to other countries, and is looking to expand its Gripen fighter presence in the market, potentially building new manufacturing hubs beyond Sweden and Brazil if successful. They are also working on establishing industrial collaboration with Poland for submarines and with Ukraine for Gripen fighters. Saab is also creating a hub in Canada and potentially another location in Europe to support GlobalEye operations.
How Key Themes May Help/Hurt: Saab is exceptionally well-positioned to benefit from the 'Modern Warfare '26: Integrators' theme. The company's core business revolves around providing integrated defense and security solutions, from multi-domain surveillance systems like GlobalEye (integrating air, sea, and land data with AI) to command and control systems for naval vessels and counter-UAS portfolios. The global shift towards 'War from Home' and the massive fiscal realignment towards advanced defense technologies, particularly in electronic warfare, missile defense, C-UAS, and ISR, directly drives demand for Saab's offerings. Its investments in R&D for autonomy, next-generation sensor capabilities, advanced weapon systems, and AI-enabled command and control systems align perfectly with the theme's focus on technological advancements. Major contract wins for integrated platforms like GlobalEye and A26 submarines, along with its Combitech segment providing cybersecurity and digital solutions, underscore its role as a key integrator. While the theme is largely beneficial, potential program delays or shifts in funding priorities for specific integrated systems could pose a risk, as could intense competition from other defense primes and integrators.

3 Main Long-Term Bull Details

Record Order Backlog and Strong Market Demand: Saab has a record order backlog of SEK 318 billion, driven by unprecedented global demand for defense capabilities due to geopolitical tensions. This substantial backlog provides excellent revenue visibility and a strong foundation for sustained growth, with both short-term and long-term delivery components increasing significantly.
Strategic Contract Wins and Diversified Portfolio: The company has secured major, strategic contracts, including three A26 submarines for Poland (SEK 47 billion), 16 Gripen E fighter jets for Ukraine, and the selection of GlobalEye by Canada and NATO (roughly 10 aircraft). These wins, across its Aeronautics, Naval, and Surveillance segments, demonstrate the competitiveness and relevance of Saab's diversified portfolio to evolving defense priorities.
Aggressive Capacity Expansion and R&D Investment: Saab is making significant investments in expanding its production capacity globally, with new facilities in the U.S. and India, and ramp-ups in Sweden for naval, weapons, and ammunition production. Concurrently, it is heavily investing in R&D (SEK 700 million increase in H1 YoY, SEK 4.4 billion rolling 12-month) in key areas like AI, advanced sensors, and autonomous systems, ensuring future growth and technological leadership.

3 Main Long-Term Bear Details

T-7 Red Hawk Program Under-absorption and Delays: The T-7 trainer aircraft program continues to experience under-absorption issues at its West Lafayette, Indiana facility, negatively impacting profitability in the Aeronautics segment. This is expected to persist for a 'couple of years more,' likely until 2028-2029, requiring a significant ramp-up in deliveries to become a positive contributor.
Supply Chain Constraints and Resilience Challenges: Despite efforts to increase internal capacity, Saab identifies managing its supply chain as the biggest bottleneck to faster growth. Persistent 'pain points' related to material supply (e.g., titanium, aluminum alloys, special steel, components) and the need to certify alternative suppliers or insource certain items pose risks to timely execution of its substantial order backlog, potentially leading to delivery delays and increased costs.
Political Volatility and Contract Execution Risks: While recent contract wins are significant, large defense deals are susceptible to geopolitical shifts, changes in political priorities, and administrative hurdles. The finalization and execution of substantial contracts, such as the Gripen E for Ukraine (which has administrative conditions related to EU funding) and the GlobalEye negotiations, can be impacted by external factors, introducing uncertainty into future order intake and revenue recognition.

Competitors And Differentiation: Saab operates in a highly competitive defense market. For submarines, they were selected by Poland in 'fierce competition,' attributing the win to the A26's capabilities adapted to the Baltic Sea, interoperability with Swedish naval forces, security policy alignment, and plans for industrial collaboration. For GlobalEye, Saab believes it has a 'great offer with a great schedule' for NATO initiatives, implying a competitive advantage due to its ability to cover air, sea, and land simultaneously, sophisticated information digestion (including AI capabilities), passive detection systems, and short lead times. In Canada, the F-35 is a potential competitor as Canada considers a dual fleet with Gripen. The broader UUV market is characterized by intense competition from both established defense primes and smaller, innovative companies. Saab differentiates itself through its advanced technology, integrated solutions, and ability to deliver critical capabilities with relatively short lead times, as well as through industrial collaboration and strategic partnerships.
Recent Performance & What The Market'S Focused On: Saab delivered another strong second quarter in 2026, marked by significant momentum and major contract wins, including SEK 47 billion for submarines to Poland and 16 Gripen E fighter jets for Ukraine. The company reported a record order backlog of SEK 318 billion, strong organic growth of almost 30%, and increased profitability driven by more efficient operations and an improved gross margin. R&D investments increased by approximately SEK 700 million in the first half-year compared to last year. The market is focused on Saab's ability to convert this record backlog into deliveries, its capacity ramp-up across all business areas (especially for GlobalEye and Gripen), the resolution of the T-7 program's under-absorption issues, and the impact of supply chain constraints. Investors are also tracking the timing of advance payments for large contracts like the Polish submarines, the development of new capabilities such as the Unmanned Airborne Early Warning system, and the overall trajectory towards its medium-term financial targets of around 22% CAGR organic sales growth and EBIT growth higher than sales growth.

Revenue Segments And Estimated Mix: {"segments":[{"segment_name":"Dynamics","estimated_mix":"29%","source_or_comment":"FY2025 Annual Report, Q2 2026 Transcript","yoy_or_trend_comment":"Very good growth of 36% quarter-over-quarter, record EBIT, increasing share of total sales revenues."產業: "Aerospace & Defense"},{"segment_name":"Surveillance","estimated_mix":"33%","source_or_comment":"FY2025 Annual Report, Q2 2026 Transcript","yoy_or_trend_comment":"Excellent growth of 47% quarter-over-quarter, EBIT growth of 55%, increasing share of total sales revenues."產業: "Aerospace & Defense"},{"segment_name":"Naval","estimated_mix":"12%","source_or_comment":"FY2025 Annual Report, Q2 2026 Transcript","yoy_or_trend_comment":"High demand, huge backlog due to Poland contract, profitability weaker due to SEK 200 million write-down related to Swedish frigate program."產業: "Aerospace & Defense"},{"segment_name":"Combitech","estimated_mix":"~6.3% (SEK 5 billion of SEK 79.1 billion total sales in FY2025)","source_or_comment":"Q4 2025 transcript and FY2025 Annual Report, Q2 2026 Transcript","yoy_or_trend_comment":"Sales a bit flat due to mix effects, but profitability increasing, growing commitments."產業: "Information Technology & Services"},{"segment_name":"Aeronautics & Corporate/Other","estimated_mix":"~19.7% (remaining)","source_or_comment":"Calculated based on other segments and total sales, Q2 2026 Transcript","yoy_or_trend_comment":"Growth connected to good pace in Gripen deliveries and tactical software. Still negative contribution from T-7 program."產業: "Aerospace & Defense"}]}
Product Brands: Gripen (fighter aircraft)
Gripen E (fighter aircraft)
Gripen F (two-seater fighter aircraft)
GlobalEye (airborne early warning and control system)
A26 (submarine)
T-7 (trainer aircraft, in partnership with Boeing)
RBS 70 (missile system)
Carl-Gustaf (recoilless rifle)
Carl-Gustaf M4 (recoilless rifle)
Giraffe (radar systems)
Giraffe 1X (radar system)
Arthur (weapon locating radars)
NLAW (anti-tank weapon)
Combat Boat
Unmanned Airborne Early Warning system (with General Atomics)
Counter-UAS portfolio (counter unmanned aerial system)

Bull / Bear Details

Saab is exceptionally positioned to capitalize on surging global defense spending, particularly in Europe, driven by geopolitical tensions. A record SEK 318 bil

Thesis

Saab is exceptionally positioned to capitalize on surging global defense spending, particularly in Europe, driven by geopolitical tensions. A record SEK 318 billion backlog, fueled by major wins like Poland's submarines and Ukraine's Gripen E, underscores robust demand for its diversified advanced defense solutions. Aggressive investments in capacity and R&D are set to drive sustained growth and profitability through 2027 and beyond. (Updated 2026-07-17)

Bull case

Saab reported a record order backlog of SEK 318 billion, a significant increase, and achieved almost 30% organic sales growth in Q2 2026. This robust performance, driven by escalating global defense spending and strong demand across its diversified portfolio, provides exceptional revenue visibility and underpins the company's upgraded medium-term growth targets, signaling sustained top-line expansion and operational efficiency.
Saab secured transformative contracts, including a SEK 47 billion deal for three submarines with Poland, an initial batch of 16 Gripen E fighter jets for Ukraine, and the selection of GlobalEye by both Canada (six aircraft) and NATO (ten aircraft). These major wins, alongside a SEK 9 billion contract for German frigates, highlight Saab's competitive strength and its portfolio's alignment with critical European defense priorities.
To meet surging demand, Saab is aggressively expanding production capacity, aiming to increase GlobalEye output to six aircraft per year by 2030 and Gripen production to 25-30 aircraft annually. Significant R&D investments, up SEK 700 million in H1, focus on future capabilities like AI-enabled command and control and next-generation sensors, ensuring technological leadership and long-term growth.

Bear case

The T-7 Red Hawk program continues to face significant under-absorption issues at its West Lafayette facility, with management indicating it will take "a few quarters more and a couple of years" to achieve good numbers. This protracted negative contribution from a key Aeronautics program extends the drag on segment profitability and overall financial performance.
Despite aggressive capacity investments, management explicitly identified the supply chain as the "biggest bottleneck" to faster growth. Persistent material supply "pain points" and the challenge of ensuring resilience through alternative suppliers and insourcing efforts pose risks to timely execution of the substantial order backlog, potentially leading to delivery delays and increased production costs.
Execution risks remain, as evidenced by the SEK 200 million write-down in the Naval segment due to not being selected for the Swedish frigate program. Furthermore, some large international contracts are structured with "open-book contract policy," which typically results in lower margins compared to competitive wins, potentially impacting overall profitability mix despite strong order intake.

Bull / Bear Case

Bear Case: Despite strong order intake, Saab faces significant operational and execution risks. The T-7 Red Hawk program continues to experience protracted under-absorption issues at its West Lafayette facility, with management indicating it will take 'a few quarters more and a couple of years' to achieve good numbers, extending the drag on Aeronautics' profitability. Management explicitly identified the supply chain as the 'biggest bottleneck' to faster growth, with persistent material supply 'pain points' and challenges in ensuring resilience through alternative suppliers or insourcing. These issues pose risks to timely execution of the substantial order backlog, potentially leading to delivery delays and increased production costs. Furthermore, execution risks are evidenced by the SEK 200 million write-down in the Naval segment due to not being selected for the Swedish frigate program. Some large international contracts are also structured with 'open-book contract policy,' which typically results in lower margins compared to competitive wins, potentially impacting overall profitability mix despite strong order intake.
Bull Case: Saab is exceptionally positioned to capitalize on surging global defense spending, particularly in Europe, driven by geopolitical tensions. The company reported a record order backlog of SEK 318 billion, a significant increase, and achieved almost 30% organic sales growth in Q2 2026. This robust performance, fueled by escalating demand across its diversified portfolio, provides exceptional revenue visibility and underpins the company's upgraded medium-term growth targets. Transformative contract wins, including a SEK 47 billion deal for three submarines with Poland, an initial batch of 16 Gripen E fighter jets for Ukraine, and the selection of GlobalEye by both Canada and NATO, highlight Saab's competitive strength. Aggressive investments in capacity expansion (e.g., GlobalEye output to six aircraft per year by 2030, Gripen to 25-30 annually) and significant R&D (up SEK 700 million in H1) in future capabilities like AI-enabled command and control ensure technological leadership and sustained long-term growth and profitability.
More Compelling & Why: Bull. Given the current market sentiment and the stock's outperformance relative to the SPY post-earnings, the Bull Case is more compelling. The record SEK 318 billion order backlog, driven by transformative contract wins like the Poland submarines and GlobalEye selections, provides exceptional long-term revenue visibility and validates Saab's strong market position in a high-demand defense environment. This backlog underpins the company's aggressive growth targets and operational leverage, justifying a robust valuation. My view would flip if the identified supply chain bottlenecks lead to widespread, significant delivery delays and substantial cost overruns, or if the T-7 program's negative contribution persists much longer than anticipated, materially eroding overall profitability and cash flow.

Key Factors5 rows

Key Factor	Why It Matters	What To Watch	What It Signals	Where/How To Track	Free Alt Data	Paid Alt Data
Official booking of the initial batch of 16 Gripen E fighter jets for Ukraine.	This contract represents a major success for the Gripen program and Saab's Aeronautics segment. Its booking will significantly contribute to the order backlog and signal strong demand for advanced fighter aircraft.	Confirmation in Saab's Q3 2026 earnings report that the contract has been booked. Management commentary on the administrative hurdles (EU funding) being resolved.	Bullish if the contract is booked in Q3 2026 as anticipated, demonstrating successful conversion of political intent into firm orders. Bearish if booking is delayed beyond Q3 2026 due to administrative issues.	Saab's Q3 2026 earnings report (expected around late October/early November 2026). Company press releases.	Ukrainian Ministry of Defence announcements, EU funding news related to defense aid for Ukraine.	S&P Global Market Intelligence: Saab AB (SAAB-B.ST) backlog updates, defense sector contract tracking.
Progress in mitigating supply chain bottlenecks and successful ramp-up of production capacity across key business areas (Dynamics, Surveillance, Naval, Aeronautics).	Supply chain resilience is identified as the 'biggest bottleneck' to faster growth. Effective mitigation and capacity expansion are critical for converting the record SEK 318 billion backlog into revenue and meeting aggressive growth targets.	Management commentary on supply chain stability, material availability, lead times, and progress on alternative supplier certifications or insourcing initiatives. Updates on production rates for high-demand products like Giraffe 1X (aiming for >300 systems/year) and Gripen (aiming for 25-30 aircraft/year).	Bullish if management reports significant improvements in supply chain efficiency, reduced lead times, and successful achievement of production ramp-up targets. Bearish if supply chain issues persist or worsen, leading to further production delays or cost overruns.	Saab's Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 earnings reports. Management's Q&A responses during earnings calls.	Industry reports on global defense supply chain trends. Public procurement databases for component orders by Saab or its suppliers.	ImportGenius: Tracking of specific component shipments to Saab's manufacturing facilities. Supply chain intelligence platforms (e.g., Everstream Analytics) for defense sector.
Finalization and booking of GlobalEye Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) system contracts with Canada (6 aircraft) and NATO (approx. 10 aircraft).	These selections represent significant breakthroughs, validating GlobalEye's advanced capabilities and securing substantial future revenue. Contract finalization will add to the backlog and drive production ramp-up.	Official announcements from Saab, Canada, or NATO regarding signed contracts, specific unit numbers, and total contract values. Updates on production capacity ramp-up towards 6 aircraft per year by 2030.	Bullish if contracts are finalized quickly and for the expected number of units (6 for Canada, 10 for NATO), reinforcing revenue visibility and market leadership. Bearish if negotiations are prolonged or contract values/units are significantly lower.	Saab's Q3 2026 earnings report, company press releases, Canadian Department of National Defence announcements, NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) statements.	Google News alerts for 'Saab GlobalEye Canada contract' or 'NATO GlobalEye procurement'. Defense industry news sites (e.g., Janes, Defense News).	FactSet: Saab AB (SAAB-B.ST) order intake analysis, defense contract databases.
Updates on the T-7 Red Hawk program's progress, specifically regarding the resolution of under-absorption issues at the West Lafayette facility and the timeline for achieving positive profitability.	The T-7 program continues to negatively impact Aeronautics' profitability. Any acceleration in production ramp-up or a clearer, earlier path to positive contribution would significantly improve segment margins and overall financial performance.	Management commentary in quarterly reports on T-7 production rates, delivery milestones, and revised timelines for achieving positive financial contribution.	Bullish if management indicates an accelerated path to profitability or a positive contribution before the previously projected 2028-2029 timeframe. Bearish if under-absorption issues worsen or the timeline for profitability extends further.	Saab's Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 earnings reports. Boeing's earnings calls (as the prime contractor).	U.S. Air Force official statements or press releases on T-7 program milestones. Defense industry news outlets covering the T-7 program.	Thinknum: Job postings for Saab's West Lafayette facility (indicating hiring/ramp-up activity).
Booking and initial advance payments for the SEK 47 billion A26 submarine contract with Poland.	This substantial contract, already secured, significantly boosts Saab's record backlog. The receipt of advance payments is crucial for immediate cash flow, funding the rapid ramp-up of shipyard capacity, and demonstrating financial strength.	Official confirmation of advance payment receipts in financial reports. Management commentary on the payment schedule and its impact on cash flow and working capital.	Bullish if advance payments are received as expected, supporting quick capacity ramp-up and positive cash flow for the year. Bearish if payments are delayed or smaller than anticipated, indicating potential liquidity strain.	Saab's Q3 2026 earnings report and subsequent financial statements. Company press releases or investor updates.	Polish Ministry of National Defence announcements, defense industry news on naval projects in Poland.	Bloomberg Terminal: Saab AB (SAAB-B.ST) cash flow statements, working capital trends.

Key Reported Metrics, Reratings Triggers & Results3 rows

This metric reflects Saab's ability to convert its record backlog into revenue and capitalize on strong market demand, validating its upgraded growth targets fo

Key reported metrics			Rerating thresholds			Earnings results
Metric	Last period	Why it matters	What's needed for rerating	Rerating context	Earnings date	Actual reported	Hit target?	Notes
Organic Sales Growth	29.8%	This metric reflects Saab's ability to convert its record backlog into revenue and capitalize on strong market demand, validating its upgraded growth targets for the coming years.	Organic Sales Growth of 25% or higher.	Sustained organic sales growth above 25% validates Saab's ability to convert its record backlog into revenue, reinforcing its competitive position in a high-demand defense market. This signals robust operational execution and potential for continued profitability, justifying a higher valuation multiple.
Order Intake	141%	Crucial for replenishing and expanding the substantial order backlog, this metric provides long-term revenue visibility and demonstrates continued market demand for Saab's defense solutions, especially with major potential contracts.	Order Intake for Q2 2026 needs to exceed SEK 60 billion, primarily driven by the booking of the SEK 47 billion Polish A26 submarine contract, demonstrating a strong rebound from Q1 2026 and sustained demand.	This threshold is crucial as it validates Saab's ability to convert strong market demand into substantial orders, especially after a Q1 miss. It reinforces the investment thesis of robust growth and revenue visibility, strengthening its competitive position and driving a positive valuation rerating.
EBIT Growth	41%	This metric demonstrates Saab's ability to leverage its increased sales into higher profitability, indicating operational efficiency and successful scaling of its business, aligning with management's target to grow EBIT more than sales.	EBIT Growth needs to exceed 26%. This target is based on analyst projections for operating income CAGR over the next three years and aligns with management's guidance to grow EBIT at a higher rate than the implied 20% organic sales growth for 2026-2027.	EBIT growth exceeding sales growth validates Saab's operational efficiency and ability to convert its record backlog into profitable revenue. This demonstrates strong leverage from increased defense spending, crucial for sustained valuation and competitive positioning.

Key Questions

Will Saab receive the anticipated advance payments for the SEK 47 billion Poland submarine contract in the next quarter, and how will this impact its cash flow

Will Saab receive the anticipated advance payments for the SEK 47 billion Poland submarine contract in the next quarter, and how will this impact its cash flow and working capital?

Question 2: Will the T-7 Red Hawk program show any signs of mitigating its under-absorption issues or accelerating its path to profitability in the next quarter, or will it continue to negatively impact Aeronautics' margins?
Question 3: How effectively will Saab demonstrate progress in mitigating its identified supply chain bottlenecks and successfully ramp up production across key programs like GlobalEye and Gripen to meet delivery schedules in the next quarter?

Earnings Transcript Summary2 rows

2026-07-17 · 2026Q2 Earnings Call

3 Things Management Is Most Focused On	Call Takeaway & Tone	Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment	3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)	Revenue Segments
1. Operational Execution and Capacity Expansion: Management emphasized improving operational execution, which is driving gross margin and profitability. This includes significant efforts in production ramp-up, increasing capacity, and recruiting skilled employees, with approximately 3,000 net new hires per year. 2. Investing in Future Capabilities and R&D: There is a strong focus on increasing R&D investments, which rose by SEK 700 million in the first half of the year compared to last year. These investments target future capabilities in areas such as autonomy, next-generation sensor systems, advanced weapon systems, and AI-enabled command and control systems to ensure long-term growth and technological leadership. 3. Securing and Delivering on Major Contracts: Management highlighted recent significant contract wins, including the SEK 47 billion submarine deal with Poland, the initial batch of 16 Gripen E fighters for Ukraine, and the selection of GlobalEye by Canada and NATO. These contracts are seen as major breakthroughs contributing to a record order backlog and future revenue streams.	The call conveyed a highly confident and positive tone, reflecting a strong second quarter performance driven by significant contract wins and robust organic growth. The key takeaway is that Saab is effectively leveraging increased global defense spending, particularly in Europe, by securing major platform contracts (submarines, Gripen, GlobalEye) and demonstrating strong operational execution in its product-focused business areas (Dynamics, Surveillance). Management is aggressively investing in production capacity and R&D to meet surging demand and maintain technological leadership. Despite analyst inquiries about margin mix, payment terms, and capacity constraints, management consistently expressed confidence in their strategic direction, delivery capabilities, and ability to achieve medium-term targets, while acknowledging ongoing efforts to strengthen the supply chain.	Overall Organic Sales Growth (Q1 2026): 23.6%. All business areas and Combitech reported double-digit growth in Q1 2026, with particularly strong development noted in Surveillance and Dynamics. Specific individual segment percentages for Aeronautics, Dynamics, Naval, and Combitech were not provided in the Q1 2026 summaries.	1. Group Gross Margin and Component Inflation: Analysts inquired about the group's gross margin performance given the product mix and the impact of component inflation. Management responded that the gross margin improved, driven by strong performance in Dynamics and Surveillance, and is expanding as the company scales. They noted that while the mix between higher-margin products and longer-term platform contracts can fluctuate, the overall bottom-line margin remains robust. Regarding component inflation, management stated that Saab is not a major volume buyer and is not as severely affected as other industries, but they are actively mitigating price increases through various means. 2. Advance Payments for the Poland Submarine Contract: An analyst sought more specific details on the advance payments for the SEK 47 billion submarine contract with Poland. Management clarified that while they would not disclose specific percentages, the payment schedule includes a 'good advance payment' that supports the rapid ramp-up of shipyard capacity, ensuring Saab does not need to act as a bank for the contract. 3. Capacity Ramp-up and Bottlenecks, particularly for GlobalEye and Dynamics: Analysts pressed on the company's ability to ramp up production for new large orders, specifically asking about GlobalEye's capacity and the biggest bottlenecks to faster growth. Management indicated plans to increase GlobalEye production from two to six aircraft per year by 2030, supported by investments in Linköping and potential new hubs. The primary bottleneck identified was within the supply chain, requiring ongoing efforts in material stocking, certifying alternative suppliers, and insourcing, rather than a limitation in recruitment.	Overall Organic Sales Growth: almost 30%. Dynamics: 36% quarter-over-quarter. Surveillance: 47% quarter-over-quarter. Aeronautics: Reported good pace and increasing deliveries of Gripen aircraft and tactical software capability development. Naval: Profitability was weaker due to a writedown related to not being selected for the Swedish frigate program; however, a huge contract for submarines with Poland (SEK 47 billion) is expected to contribute to sales for many years. Combitech: Sales were a bit flat due to timing effects, but the segment is performing well on its growth trajectory.

2026-02-05 · 2025Q4 Earnings Call

3 Things Management Is Most Focused On	Call Takeaway & Tone	Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment	3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)	Revenue Segments
1. Sustaining and accelerating growth and delivery: Management emphasized achieving 25% organic growth for the full year and 35% organic growth in Q4 2025, driven by strong delivery capabilities and capacity investments. They also upgraded their medium-term target for average growth from 18% to 22% over 2023-2027, implying 20% average growth for 2026-2027. 2. Capitalizing on high market demand and geopolitical landscape: Management highlighted record order bookings (SEK 169 billion in 2025, SEK 100 billion in Q4) and a record backlog of SEK 275 billion, driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe and the NATO pillar, necessitating increased defense spending. 3. Expanding capacity and investing in future capabilities: They are actively increasing capacity with new facilities, including a U.S. factory (late 2026) and an Indian factory (2027), to support growth and meet market demand. They also stressed continued investment in R&D and new technologies, such as next-gen fighter capabilities and autonomous systems.	The call conveyed a highly positive and confident tone, reflecting a stellar performance in Q4 and full-year 2025. The key takeaway was Saab's exceptional growth, record order intake, and substantial backlog, which has led to an upgraded medium-term growth target. Management is focused on expanding capacity, leveraging strong market demand driven by geopolitical factors, and continuous innovation. While analysts pressed on specifics regarding future margins and growth phasing, management maintained a positive outlook, emphasizing their strategic positioning and ability to deliver.	Overall Organic Sales Growth (Q3 2025): 18.3%. Aeronautics (Q3 2025): 34%. Dynamics (Q3 2025): Specific y/y sales growth percentage not explicitly provided in search results, but "all business areas reported sales growth". An analyst preview expected ~25% y/y growth. Surveillance (Q3 2025): Specific y/y sales growth percentage not explicitly provided in search results, but "all business areas reported sales growth". Kockums (Q3 2025): Specific y/y sales growth percentage not explicitly provided in search results, but "all business areas reported sales growth". Combitech (Q3 2025): Specific y/y sales growth percentage not explicitly provided in search results, but "all business areas and Combitech reported growth".	1. Operational margin development in 2026 and order visibility/mix: An analyst asked for more information on operational margin development in 2026 given strong order visibility. Management responded by stating they would not provide specific numbers or ranges for operational margins, reiterating their guidance to grow EBIT more than sales, and noted that the mix of product vs. platform contracts would define quarterly variations. 2. Phasing of the 20% growth target for 2026/2027 and how much is secured by existing orders: An analyst inquired about the phasing of the implied 20% growth for 2026 and 2027 and the proportion secured by existing orders. Management pointed to the backlog spread over the years as a source of confidence for achieving the average 20% growth but declined to provide specific guidance for 2026 versus 2027 separately. 3. Surveillance margins and the T-7 program's negative impact/timeline: An analyst asked about Surveillance margins, particularly regarding unprofitable business, and the T-7 program's negative impact and timeline to become positive. Management stated that Surveillance should be on or above 10% margin and that they are still working to mitigate loss-making business. For T-7, they indicated the negative impact would continue for a couple more years, likely until 2028-2029, but emphasized it would eventually be a good business with many aircraft delivered.	Overall Organic Sales Growth: 35%. Dynamics: 50%. Surveillance: Above 50%. Kockums: 20%. Aeronautics: Mentioned as "now growing for us going forward", but no specific Q4 y/y percentage provided. Combitech: Mentioned as "growing in a very nice way", but no specific Q4 y/y percentage provided.

Transcript Tidbits2 rows

2026-07-17

About Expanding Eligible Market	About Competition	About The Broader Industry	Where Things Are Headed	Updates On Theme	Broader Themes Emerging	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Hiring
Saab secured major contracts including three submarines for Poland, 16 Gripen E fighter jets for Ukraine (first batch), and GlobalEye selections by Canada (six aircraft) and NATO (roughly ten aircraft). The company also won contracts for NLAW support weapons to France, Carl-Gustaf M4 to Lithuania, and a vehicle training system to the U.S. Army. Demand for Giraffe 1X sensors is so high that Saab is manufacturing them on speculation, aiming for over 300 systems a year. A contract with TKMS for four F128 frigates for Germany, valued at almost SEK 9 billion, was a significant breakthrough. Interest in the Combat Boat is increasing in many countries, leading to a new production facility in Docksta. The Unmanned Airborne Early Warning system, developed with General Atomics, is currently test-flying and is already for sale.	Saab was not selected for the Swedish frigate program with Babcock, which impacted Naval's profitability due to a SEK 200 million write-down. However, the company secured a significant contract with TKMS for German frigates, demonstrating its competitive offering. GlobalEye's attractiveness is attributed to its ability to cover air, sea, and land simultaneously, sophisticated information digestion, AI capabilities, short lead times, and its role in filling a critical capability gap. The company noted that some international contracts come with an open-book policy, which typically results in lower margins compared to competitive wins.	The industry is experiencing high demand, particularly in the Naval market, driven by security needs such as increasing underwater capability in the Baltic Sea. The focus on future capability is evident with increased R&D investments, including SEK 700 million in the first half of the year. The GlobalEye's capabilities, including AI for sensor information fusion, highlight the industry's shift towards advanced, multi-domain surveillance and intelligence. The growing counter-UAS portfolio also indicates a significant industry trend towards addressing aerial threats.	Saab expects to book the Gripen E contract with Ukraine in the next quarter and will diligently work on subsequent batches. Negotiations for the GlobalEye contract with Canada are ongoing and expected to move quickly, with NATO also selecting GlobalEye for approximately ten aircraft. GlobalEye production capacity is targeted to increase from two to six aircraft per year by 2030. The T-7 program is anticipated to take a few more quarters and a couple of years to achieve good numbers, eventually becoming an excellent franchise program. Dynamics will see more new products and investments. Naval production capacity is ramping up in Karlskrona and Landskrona, with a new facility for Combat Boats in Docksta. Saab is confident in delivering positive cash flow for the year, on track for 60% cash conversion. R&D is focused on autonomy, next-generation sensor capabilities, advanced weapon systems, and AI-enabled command and control systems. The company remains confident in its medium-term targets of 22% CAGR organic sales growth (2023-2027), EBIT growth higher than sales growth, and cash conversion above 60%. The supply chain is identified as the biggest bottleneck, and efforts are focused on making it more resilient through stock, alternative suppliers, and insourcing. Gripen production is aiming for 25-30 aircraft per year, almost doubling current capacity.	Integrators:	AI in defense (GlobalEye's AI capabilities, R&D focus on AI-enabled command and control systems), Counter-UAS (dedicated portfolio for unmanned aerial systems), Supply Chain Resilience (identified as the biggest bottleneck, efforts to make it more resilient), Sustainability in Defense Manufacturing (robot-assisted welding, 3D printing to reduce emissions).	“This was another strong quarter with lots of momentum on the business side.” “Huge breakthroughs and successes, of course.” “We have a record order backlog, SEK 318 billion, very strong prospects for the future growth.” “This is only the first batch. We will diligently continue to work with the next batch.” “Big breakthrough. I think it shows an evidence of how important it is to be in the alliance as a country.” “We delivered a record gross margin for the single quarter.” “We remain confident that we are well progressing towards our medium-term targets in cash conversion as well.” “We are well positioned to reach our medium-term targets of organic sales growth in this period, 2023-2027, of around 22% CAGR.”	“We still have issues when it comes to under absorption, when it comes to getting up and running on the pace of delivering T-7s from our facility in West Lafayette.” “But it will take a few quarters more and a couple of years, I would say, before we actually get back to good numbers on this side.” “The profitability of the Naval side is a little bit weaker than the comparable quarter, but that's due that we took sort of an effect of that we didn't get selected on the Swedish frigate side, together with Babcock.” “We're not a huge buyer of components, but of course, we pay attention to the fact that we don't have limitations on access to components yet, but the prices are increasing…” “If I need to point at a bottleneck, it's probably more in the supply chain than anywhere else.” “Some of the international contracts come with an open-book contract policy, which is normally a bit lower margin.”	Saab is recruiting many skillful employees, roughly 3,000 net up a year, to increase capacity and deliver to customers. The company continues to invest heavily in talents to support future growth and deliver on commitments. Recruitment is not seen as the real limitation or bottleneck.

2026-02-05

About Expanding Eligible Market	About Competition	About The Broader Industry	Where Things Are Headed	Updates On Theme	Broader Themes Emerging	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Hiring
Saab sees significant growth driven by European nations expanding NATO capabilities and taking responsibility for their own continent's threat environment. The company is expanding capacity with new factories in the U.S. (late this year) and India (next year). Notable contract wins include Gripen to Colombia, GlobalEye to France, A26 submarines for Sweden, and electronic warfare for German Eurofighter. Saab is actively pursuing new Gripen campaigns and sees strong demand across its Dynamics portfolio (training, camouflage, missile, ground combat). Kockums is expanding submarine capacity and sees high customer interest in autonomous underwater systems. Combitech's growth is supported by Sweden's total defense initiatives and civil aviation. GlobalEye has strong interest from NATO (9 partner countries), Nordic countries, France (option for 2 more), and the Middle East. Canada is exploring sovereign aeronautics capacity, potentially a dual fleet with Gripen, and Saab is providing detailed information on technology transfer and manufacturing hubs.	Saab was selected by Poland for the A26 submarines in 'fierce competition,' attributing the win to the A26's capabilities adapted to the Baltic Sea, interoperability with Swedish naval forces, security policy alignment, and plans for industrial collaboration. For GlobalEye, Saab believes it has a 'great offer with a great schedule' for NATO initiatives, implying a competitive advantage. In Canada, the F-35 is a potential competitor as Canada considers a dual fleet with Gripen. The broader UUV market is characterized by intense competition from both established defense primes and smaller, innovative companies.	The industry is experiencing high customer demand driven by geopolitical tensions and the need for European nations to expand their capabilities within NATO, taking more responsibility for their own continent's threat environment. This is leading to significant defense spending in Europe. Sweden's total defense perspective is also generating business for the industry. Modern warfare is characterized by a 'War from Home' era, emphasizing technology over traditional forces. The escalating threat from low-cost, stealthy subsea drones, as demonstrated by recent conflicts, highlights critical vulnerabilities for naval assets and ports, driving urgent investment in both offensive and defensive subsea capabilities. Sweden and Denmark are jointly spending SEK 2.6 billion on counter-UAS systems for Ukraine.	Saab expects its U.S. factory to be operational late this year and an Indian factory next year. The company anticipates finalizing the A26 submarine contract with Poland during this year. For Gripen, Saab is looking into next-gen fighter capabilities, starting with complementing Gripen E with collaborative combat aircraft and autonomous systems. The T-7 program is expected to continue with under-absorption in its Indiana facilities for a 'couple of years more,' likely until '28 or '29, but is projected to be a 'good business' with '1,000 aircraft and beyond' eventually delivered. Saab hopes to see Ukraine flying Gripens, contingent on financing and industrial collaboration. Dynamics will see more capacity increases in India and the U.S. Surveillance is expected to improve further this year by mitigating loss-making business and aims for a 10% or above EBIT margin. Saab Kockums is campaigning to be part of new Swedish frigates/corvettes. Saab has upgraded its medium-term average growth target for 2023-2027 to 22%, implying roughly 20% average growth for 2026-2027, and reiterates targets of growing EBIT more than sales and maintaining cash conversion above 60%. CapEx will remain high, 'not less than the 7.2%' seen this year. GlobalEye deliveries to Sweden are expected in the 'next couple of years,' and Saab is increasing its capacity to deliver more aircraft per year. Saab is investing in innovation, including an AI agent for Gripen pilots, counter-UAS systems, and autonomous systems across all domains. The company emphasizes diligent work on the supply chain to support growth.	European	War from Home, AI in defense	ended up with almost SEK 80 billion in organic growth, SEK 79.1%, which was excellent, 25% organic growth. record order bookings... SEK 275 billion. This is absolutely the best quarter, I think, that Saab has ever generated. increasing our now target to 22% in average over the period of '23 to '27. we have a very good market position. we have a great product. AI agent supporting a pilot in a fighter aircraft like the Gripen E is something quite unique.	still affected by the under absorption that we have in the facilities in West Lafayette, Indiana, and that will be continuing for a couple of years more. it's not this year, I would say, if I'm going to be honest. we're not done yet. That will continue a bit this year to improve even further. it's the material supply, it's the supply chain that we work diligently... There are pain points there.	Saab has increased its number of employees by around 10,000 people, now totaling 28,000. The company is able to ramp up by increasing its workforce and is an 'attractive company to come and work for.' Combitech's growth is driven by an increased number of consultants.

NotesTable

Date	Comment	Comment Type	Comment Sentiment	Link	Price Reaction
2026-07-17	Saab reported a strong Q2 2026 with nearly 30% organic sales growth and a record SEK 318 billion backlog from major contract wins (Poland submarines, Ukraine Gripen E, GlobalEye). Management expressed high confidence in future growth and capacity expansion, despite supply chain bottlenecks and T-7 program issues. The market reacted very positively, with SAAB-B.ST outperforming SPY by over 10% in two days, aligning with the bullish outlook.	Earnings Transcript	Positive		+9.42% (vs SPY: +10.41%)

Upcoming Events8 rows

Catalyst ID	Estimated Timing	Estimated Date Start	Estimated Date End	Catalyst	Why It Matters	Ticker Or Theme Specific	Transcript Date	Source Type
SAAB-B.ST_05f8d5d4	early next year	2027-01-01	2027-03-31	Inauguration of the new Dynamics manufacturing facility in India.	This facility, expected early next year, will further enhance Saab's global production capacity for Dynamics products, supporting long-term growth and meeting increasing international demand.	Ticker	2026-07-17	earnings_transcript
SAAB-B.ST_3d28a923	early July	2026-07-01	2026-07-31	NATO's official announcement regarding the selection of Saab's GlobalEye as its future long-range detection device.	A positive decision would lead to substantial new orders for Saab's GlobalEye system, significantly boosting the Surveillance business area's backlog and revenue.	Ticker	2026-02-05	earnings_transcript
SAAB-B.ST_b8c11c25	next quarter	2026-07-01	2026-09-30	Booking of the contract for 16 Gripen E fighter jets for Ukraine.	This contract for 16 Gripen Es will significantly increase Saab's order intake and backlog, demonstrating strong international demand and successful execution in the fighter aircraft segment.	Ticker	2026-07-17	earnings_transcript
SAAB-B.ST_70a4819a	Q3 2026 or later	2026-07-01	2026-09-30	Finalization of the GlobalEye Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) system contract with NATO.	NATO has selected GlobalEye for roughly 10 aircraft to replace the E-3A, which will significantly boost Saab's order backlog and reinforce its strategic position as a key provider of advanced surveillance capabilities to the NATO alliance.	Ticker	2026-07-17	earnings_transcript
SAAB-B.ST_a1bffaf2	a couple of years more (from Feb 2026), looking at '28, '29 actually.	2028-01-01	2029-12-31	Saab's portion of the T-7 Red Hawk trainer program reaching profitability, driven by increased deliveries and potential contract renegotiations.	Improved profitability in the Aeronautics segment by reducing under-absorption in the West Lafayette facility and potentially securing additional contract value.	Ticker	2026-02-05	earnings_transcript
SAAB-B.ST_e170dd82	coming into play next year (2027)	2027-01-01	2027-12-31	Saab's new Carl-Gustaf manufacturing facility in India commencing significant production and contributing to results.	Expands production capacity to meet strong market demand for Dynamics' portfolio, supporting future revenue growth and strengthening Saab's 'Make in India' commitment.	Ticker	2026-02-05	earnings_transcript
SAAB-B.ST_c786110b	exactly when they will make that decision, I don't know. (Still under consideration as of early June 2026)	2026-07-03	2027-12-31	Canada's high-level political decision on potentially adopting Gripen fighters for a dual fleet strategy or establishing sovereign aeronautics capacity, following ongoing discussions.	A positive decision would open a new, potentially large market for Gripen fighters and industrial collaboration, significantly impacting Saab's Aeronautics segment's future order intake and revenue.	Ticker	2026-02-05	earnings_transcript
SAAB-B.ST_5d9b6c4b	That will continue a bit this year to improve even further... No, not yet. We're working it. And we'll tell you when we have done it completely. (2026)	2026-07-03	2026-12-31	Completion of efforts to mitigate or divest loss-making business within the Surveillance segment.	Will improve the overall profitability and EBIT margin of the Surveillance business area, contributing to group-level financial performance.	Ticker	2026-02-05	earnings_transcript