Home / Themes / Fiscal Spend '24: Jet Makers
Fiscal Spend '24: Jet Makers (view performance)
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Theme thesis · 3/5 sections · Tickers 4 with notes · 4 pending
Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).
Bull / Bear DetailsThe thesis for AIR FP (Airbus SE) in Spring 2025 is mixed. While there is potential for growth driven by fiscal spending on defense and aerospace, recent geopol
Thesis
The thesis for AIR FP (Airbus SE) in Spring 2025 is mixed. While there is potential for growth driven by fiscal spending on defense and aerospace, recent geopolitical tensions and tariffs imposed on European goods by the Trump administration pose challenges. The company's ability to capitalize on increased government contracts while managing supply chain disruptions will be crucial in determining its outlook.
Bull case
European governments have increased defense budgets, providing opportunities for Airbus to secure new contracts.
Airbus has a strong backlog of orders, which provides revenue visibility and stability in the near to medium term.
Advancements in sustainable aviation technology give Airbus a competitive edge in the market, aligning with global environmental goals.
Bear case
The imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration on European goods could increase costs and disrupt supply chains for Airbus.
Increased competition from U.S. manufacturers benefiting from domestic fiscal policies under the current administration might pressure Airbus's market share.
Currency fluctuations and potential retaliatory tariffs from the EU could impact profitability and operational efficiency.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Cadence | What It Signals | Update Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defense Budget Allocations | Annual | Indicates potential contract volumes | Google_Sheets |
| Tariff Impact Analysis | Quarterly | Cost implications and supply chain risk | Google_Sheets |
| Order Backlog | Quarterly | Revenue visibility and stability | Google_Sheets |
Upcoming Catalysts
| Catalyst ID | Estimated Timing | Estimated Date Start | Estimated Date End | Catalyst | Why It Matters | Ticker Or Theme Specific | Transcript Date | Source Type | Catalyst Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BA_611b0b0c | pricing that in the fall time frame according to the current schedule | 2026-09-01 | 2026-11-30 | Pricing of the follow-on tanker contracts for the US Air Force, for which Boeing is the sole source. | This is an opportunity for Boeing to secure a new contract with improved margins and risk-sharing, moving away from the loss-making existing contract. Favorable pricing is bullish for BDS profitability. | Ticker | 2026-01-27 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| BA_956a0486 | between now and the October time frame | 2026-07-28 | 2026-10-31 | Successful resolution of contract negotiations with the Puget Sound Engineering Union (SPEEA). | A timely agreement avoids potential work stoppages, ensuring stability in engineering operations and supporting ongoing program execution and production ramps. | Ticker | 2026-07-28 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| BA_aece0071 | this summer | 2026-07-01 | 2026-09-22 | Boeing reaching a sustained 737 production rate of 47 airplanes per month. | This operational achievement signals improved factory health and supply chain stability, crucial for meeting delivery targets and driving commercial airplanes revenue growth. | Ticker | 2026-07-28 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| BA_416c1300 | very soon | 2026-08-01 | 2026-09-30 | FAA amended type certification for the 737-7 aircraft. | This certification is a critical regulatory milestone enabling the start of 737-7 deliveries in 2027, which will contribute to future revenue and de-risk the program. | Ticker | 2026-07-28 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| BA_647b02da | third quarter | 2026-07-01 | 2026-09-30 | Resumption of GE9X engine deliveries for the 777X program following modification finalization with the FAA. | Consistent engine deliveries are essential for the 777X program to progress with certification flight testing and remain on track for its first delivery in 2027. | Ticker | 2026-07-28 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| BA_b7790899 | later this year at a low rate of initial production | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | The new 737 North Line in Everett begins initial operations at a low rate of production. | This new production line is essential for enabling future 737 rate ramps above 47 per month to 52 per month, crucial for meeting demand and improving long-term financial performance. | Ticker | 2026-04-22 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| BA_2ef67317 | still anticipate certification for both the 737-7 and 737-10 in 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | FAA certification of the 737-7 and 737-10, including approval of the final design changes for the engine anti-ice issues. | Certification is essential for beginning deliveries of these models, unlocking significant revenue and cash flow, and reducing inventory drag. Delays would be bearish, while on-time certification is bullish. | Ticker | 2026-01-27 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| BA_076bd55b | later this year | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | Boeing's planned increase of 737 MAX production rate from 42 to 47 airplanes per month, following an FAA rate review and monitoring factory health. | This rate increase is critical for boosting commercial deliveries and improving cash flow. Successful execution is bullish, while delays or quality issues would be bearish. | Ticker | 2026-01-27 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| BA_ebc832c1 | remain on track for schedule of first delivery in 2027 | 2026-04-24 | 2027-12-31 | GE finalizing the modification for the 777X engine durability issue and Boeing incorporating it into the certification plan. | Resolution is essential for the 777X certification and maintaining the 2027 first delivery target, which is crucial for the program's financial performance and investor confidence. | Ticker | 2026-04-22 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| BA_28751fcf | second half of the year | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | Expected payment to the Department of Justice. | This payment is assumed in the free cash flow outlook and will directly impact the company's cash position in the second half of the year. | Ticker | 2026-04-22 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| BA_a4bec4e3 | Implicitly 'later this year' to meet full year delivery goals of 90-100 airplanes. | 2026-04-24 | 2026-12-31 | Resolution of premium seat certification delays impacting 787 deliveries. | Unlocks deliveries of already built 787s, directly impacting commercial airplane revenue and cash flow, and is necessary to meet the full-year delivery target. | Ticker | 2026-04-22 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| BA_a200f89a | later this year | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | Boeing increasing the 787 production rate to 10 airplanes per month. | This rate increase is a key operational milestone, directly impacting delivery volume, revenue growth, and free cash flow for the Commercial Airplanes segment. | Ticker | 2026-04-22 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| BA_2785c04e | For production above 47, we'll add our new North Line in Everett | 2026-10-01 | 2027-12-31 | Activation and staffing of the new North Line in Everett to support 737 MAX production rates above 47 airplanes per month. | This facility expansion is essential for meeting future demand and further increasing production, directly impacting long-term revenue and profitability. Successful ramp-up is bullish, delays are bearish. | Ticker | 2026-01-27 | earnings_transcript | BA (ticker) |
| GD_0d0dbc18 | fourth quarter | 2026-10-01 | 2026-12-31 | General Dynamics' Aerospace segment expects its operating margin in the fourth quarter of 2026 to be its strongest for the year. | This anticipated improvement in Aerospace operating margin is driven by favorable mix and learning curve efficiencies, which will positively contribute to the company's overall profitability and earnings per share. | Ticker | 2026-07-29 | earnings_transcript | GD (ticker) |
| SAAB-B.ST_05f8d5d4 | early next year | 2027-01-01 | 2027-03-31 | Inauguration of the new Dynamics manufacturing facility in India. | This facility, expected early next year, will further enhance Saab's global production capacity for Dynamics products, supporting long-term growth and meeting increasing international demand. | Ticker | 2026-07-17 | earnings_transcript | SAAB-B.ST (ticker) |
| SAAB-B.ST_e170dd82 | coming into play next year (2027) | 2027-01-01 | 2027-12-31 | Saab's new Carl-Gustaf manufacturing facility in India commencing significant production and contributing to results. | Expands production capacity to meet strong market demand for Dynamics' portfolio, supporting future revenue growth and strengthening Saab's 'Make in India' commitment. | Ticker | 2026-02-05 | earnings_transcript | SAAB-B.ST (ticker) |
| SAAB-B.ST_a1bffaf2 | a couple of years more (from Feb 2026), looking at '28, '29 actually. | 2028-01-01 | 2029-12-31 | Saab's portion of the T-7 Red Hawk trainer program reaching profitability, driven by increased deliveries and potential contract renegotiations. | Improved profitability in the Aeronautics segment by reducing under-absorption in the West Lafayette facility and potentially securing additional contract value. | Ticker | 2026-02-05 | earnings_transcript | SAAB-B.ST (ticker) |