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AI Short '26: AI-Obsolete Software (view performance)

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Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).

Bull / Bear Details

The AI Short '26: AI-Obsolete Software theme remains compellingly bearish. Advanced AI increasingly commoditizes core software functions and enables agentic sys

Thesis

The AI Short '26: AI-Obsolete Software theme remains compellingly bearish. Advanced AI increasingly commoditizes core software functions and enables agentic systems, threatening traditional tools. While incumbents adapt with strong AI integration and data moats, and face adoption friction, the long-term obsolescence thesis is gaining traction.

Bull case

  • The rapid advancement of generative AI models and 'world models' increasingly automates complex tasks, creating 'good enough' alternatives that bypass specialized commercial software. This commoditizes core functionalities, leading to value abstraction and reducing the need for traditional deterministic workflow tools.

  • The increasing availability of high-performance open-source AI models and hyperscalers bundling comprehensive AI and data tools empowers enterprises to build custom, AI-driven solutions. This reduces reliance on commercial off-the-shelf software, enabling 'homegrown' tools or internal scripts that displace existing vendors.

  • Autonomous AI agents are increasingly orchestrating complex workflows across disparate systems, abstracting away the need for direct user interaction with traditional software interfaces. This shifts value accrual to the agentic layer, potentially leading to 'agentic overhead' for incumbents if not effectively monetized, and displacing traditional software.

Bear case

  • Leading software providers are aggressively embedding AI into their core platforms, expanding AI-powered offerings, and demonstrating strong AI-driven revenue growth and monetization. This proactive adaptation transforms existing software into 'AI-native' solutions, extending their relevance and delaying obsolescence.

  • Established software companies possess vast, proprietary datasets and 'world models of work' or 'context engines,' built on decades of enterprise workflow data. This deep, mission-critical data provides an unmatched advantage for their AI solutions, enabling trusted, auditable, and differentiated outcomes that pure-play AI models cannot easily replicate.

  • Enterprises face significant 'AI anxiety' and practical challenges in fully adopting and realizing value from new AI features. Emerging legal challenges, such as AI bias lawsuits (e.g., Workday), and increasing regulatory hurdles (e.g., EU AI Act) create friction, slowing the pace of AI deployment and monetization for incumbents.

LLM_Approved · Updated 2026-09-07

Overview

Hiring Trend Watchpoints

High-performing operators are actively leveraging AI to maintain flat or reduce overall headcount, particularly in non-AI engineering, operational, and administrative roles, while aggressively increasing hiring for AI/ML engineers, prompt engineers, and AI governance specialists. This trend is driven by AI-driven productivity gains and automation substitution, as seen with Workday and monday.com achieving more with flat headcount or boosting developer output. To confirm theme execution (strengthening short thesis), watch for a sustained or accelerating divergence where AI/ML/prompt engineering/AI governance roles grow significantly faster than traditional software development, operations, or administrative roles. Look for explicit management commentary on AI-driven headcount optimization or productivity gains leading to substitution. A warning of deterioration (weakening short thesis) would be a slowdown in AI/ML job posting growth, a re-acceleration of traditional software development roles, or companies increasing overall headcount without a clear AI-driven productivity narrative, indicating AI is not effectively displacing traditional tasks.

Forum Watchlist

  • subreddit — r/singularityHigh

    Discussions on AGI, AI's disruptive potential, and impact on traditional software paradigms, particularly on job displacement and software commoditization

  • forum — Hacker NewsHigh

    New AI tools, open-source models, developer trends, and AI's impact on software development and enterprise solutions

  • subreddit — r/MachineLearningMedium

    Technical discussions on new AI model releases, practical applications, and advancements that could commoditize software functions

  • subreddit — r/artificialMedium

    General AI news, ethical debates, and discussions around enterprise AI adoption challenges and opportunities

  • forum — LessWrong/Alignment ForumLow

    Discussions on AI safety, agentic AI, and long-term impacts on human work and software systems

Industry Publications

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Second Order Trends

The acceleration of 'Agentic Enterprise Transformation' continues, with AI agents moving beyond features to orchestrate entire workflows, leading to potential 'agentic overhead' for incumbents if not effectively monetized. A significant second-order trend is the increasing focus on AI Governance, Ethics, and Compliance, driven by emerging regulations (e.g., EU AI Act) and legal challenges (e.g., Workday AI bias lawsuit), which create 'AI anxiety' and friction, slowing the pace of AI deployment and monetization for incumbents. Furthermore, customers are increasingly scrutinizing AI token costs (as seen with S&P Global) and exploring building custom AI solutions in-house using open-source models, potentially commoditizing commercial APIs and displacing traditional software offerings. This also contributes to a broader trend where AI innovation outpaces customer adoption and value realization, leading to monetization headwinds for many incumbents despite strong AI usage metrics. Finally, an aggressive freemium AI strategy (e.g., Adobe) is emerging, aiming for massive user acquisition but potentially impacting short-term Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth from individual subscribers, accelerating the commoditization of basic software features.

Search Keywords Brand Product

  • Agentforce
  • Now Assist
  • Firefly AI
  • Acrobat AI assistant
  • Adobe Express AI
  • Vector AI
  • Unity 6
  • iLEVEL S&P Global
  • ChatIQ S&P Global
  • Bits AI Datadog
  • Sana Travel Agent
  • Sana for ITSM
  • Headless 360 Salesforce
  • Data 360 Salesforce
  • Customer 360 Salesforce
  • Creative Cloud AI
  • Document Cloud AI
  • Experience Cloud AI
  • Jira Software
  • Jira Service Management
  • Confluence
  • Trello
  • Rovo AI
  • monday AI work platform
  • monday Work OS
  • monday CRM
  • monday Service
  • monday dev
  • One AI
  • Workday Sana
  • Workday Adaptive Planning
  • Workday Data Cloud
  • Workday GO
  • HiredScore AI
  • Paradox AI
  • Claudeforce
  • AI Force
  • Slack Code
  • Agentforce Coworker
  • Agentforce Operations
  • Slackbot
  • Tableau
  • MuleSoft
  • Slack
  • Regrello
  • Contentful
  • Fin AI
  • Datadog platform
  • Datadog for AI
  • Real User Monitoring
  • Log Management
  • Cloud SIEM
  • GPU Monitoring
  • Agent Observability
  • Data Observability
  • Infinite Cardinality Metrics
  • AI Guard
  • Bits Security Analyst
  • Teamwork Collection
  • Service Collection
  • Teamwork Graph
  • Jira Align
  • Bitbucket
  • Opsgenie
  • Compass
  • Unity 7
  • Unity AI
  • Unity Commerce
  • LevelPlay
  • SpeedTree
  • Parsec
  • Ziva Dynamics
  • SyncSketch
  • Unity engine
  • HubSpot AI
  • HubSpot agents
  • HubSpot AEO
  • Revenue Hub
  • Agent Builder
  • Agent Hub
  • Breeze Assistant
  • Marketing Hub
  • Sales Hub
  • Service Hub
  • Smart CRM
  • S&P 500 Index
  • Platts
  • Capital IQ
  • Kensho
  • ClearPar
  • Capital IQ Pro
  • RatingsXpress
  • WSO
  • Visible Alpha
  • With Intelligence
  • S&P Pantera Digital Asset Index
  • datacenterHawk
  • Agusto & Company
  • CERA Titan
  • Kensho LLM-ready APIs
  • Adaptive Retrieval
  • MCP applications
  • Debtdomain
  • Pricing and Reference Data
  • Lending Solutions
  • Now Platform
  • IT Service Management
  • IT Business Management
  • IT Operations Management
  • IT Asset Management
  • Security Operations
  • Governance Risk and Compliance
  • Human Resources
  • Legal Service Delivery
  • Workplace Service Delivery
  • Customer Service Management
  • Field Service Management
  • Employee Works
  • Agent Client Collector
  • Now Code
  • Now Protect

Search Keywords Policy Regulatory

  • AI bias lawsuit
  • AI governance regulation
  • AI ethics enterprise
  • AI data privacy
  • AI regulation software
  • AI compliance framework
  • EU AI Act impact
  • AI hiring discrimination
  • AI liability software
  • FedRAMP High certification
  • HIPAA compliance
  • Colorado AI Act
  • data sovereignty AI
  • responsible AI governance
  • PII handling

Search Keywords Event Phrases

  • Cannes Lions Adobe
  • GDC AI authoring beta
  • Workday AI bias lawsuit ruling
  • Hyperscaler AI model launch
  • S&P Global Mobility spin-off
  • Unity Runtime Data integration
  • Microsoft Ignite AI
  • AWS re:Invent AI
  • DASH user conference
  • Team '26 Europe
  • HubSpot Analyst Day
  • Sana AI Summit
  • One AI acquisition
  • Workday Financial Analyst Day
  • Workday Rising
  • Dreamforce
  • Anthropic partnership
  • Unity Unite Conference
  • Unity 7 release
  • Unity AI beta
  • S&P Global Investor Day

Google Trend Product Category Intent

• Acrobat AI assistant reviews • Adobe Express AI features • Salesforce Agentforce demo • Workday AI solutions pricing • ServiceNow Now Assist benefits • Unity Vector ad network performance • Datadog Cloud SIEM comparison • HubSpot AI tools for marketing • Sana Travel Agent reviews • Firefly AI image generation • ChatIQ S&P Global features • Bits AI Datadog • AI software alternatives • build custom AI solution • open source AI enterprise • AI workflow automation tools • agentic AI software

Google Trend Consumer Intent

• AI tools for graphic design • AI for customer service automation • AI for HR management • AI for game development • AI for financial analysis • AI for IT operations • AI for marketing professionals • AI for business workflows • AI productivity tools • AI code generation tools • AI for small business CRM • AI for restaurant management • AI for project management

Google Trend Macro Policy Terms

• AI job displacement • AI ethics in hiring • AI data security • AI regulatory framework • EU AI Act enterprise • AI liability software • AI impact on jobs • AI automation economy • AI governance standards

Economic Data Watch

1. Gartner, IDC, or Forrester Research — Worldwide AI Software Market Forecasts

Metric/field Annual Growth Rate of Global Enterprise Spending on AI-Native Software Solutions (YoY %)

Cadence Annually (with interim quarterly updates/forecasts)

Why it matters Sustained high growth (>30% YoY) indicates rapid adoption of AI-native solutions, accelerating traditional software obsolescence, supporting the short thesis.

Signal to watch Increasing growth rate suggests faster obsolescence of traditional software.

Confidence: high

2. LinkedIn Economic Graph, Indeed Hiring Lab, Burning Glass — Job Postings Data

Metric/field YoY Growth Rate of AI/ML Job Postings vs. YoY Growth Rate of Traditional Software Development Job Postings

Cadence Monthly/Quarterly

Why it matters A sustained higher growth rate in AI/ML job postings compared to traditional software development roles indicates AI-driven automation is displacing traditional tasks, supporting the short thesis.

Signal to watch Widening gap (AI/ML growing faster) indicates accelerating displacement.

Confidence: high

3. Gartner, IDC — Worldwide IT Spending Forecast

Metric/field Total Enterprise IT Spending Growth (YoY %)

Cadence Quarterly/Annually

Why it matters Overall IT spending growth provides a baseline. If AI-native software grows significantly faster than overall IT, it signals a shift in spending priorities.

Signal to watch Decelerating overall IT spending growth combined with accelerating AI-native software spending growth.

Confidence: medium

4. Government bodies (EU Commission, US States), Legal News Outlets — AI Regulation Status/Legal Filings

Metric/field Number of new AI regulations enacted or significant legal rulings on AI liability/bias

Cadence event_driven/quarterly

Why it matters Increased regulatory scrutiny or adverse rulings could slow the pace of AI deployment and monetization for incumbents, creating friction and potentially delaying obsolescence.

Signal to watch More stringent regulations or adverse legal outcomes suggest increased friction for AI adoption.

Confidence: high

5. IMF, World Bank, National Statistical Offices — World Economic Outlook / GDP Statistics

Metric/field Real GDP Growth Rate (YoY %)

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Overall economic health influences enterprise software budgets. A strong economy might mask the shift, while a weak economy could accelerate the move to more efficient AI solutions.

Signal to watch Weakening GDP growth could pressure all software spending, potentially accelerating the shift to AI-driven efficiency tools.

Confidence: medium

Free Alt Data Watch

1. Google Trends — Search Interest Data

Metric/field Relative search interest for "AI automation" compared to "enterprise software" (worldwide)

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Increasing relative search interest in AI automation suggests growing awareness and intent to adopt AI-driven solutions, potentially displacing traditional software.

Signal to watch "AI automation" search interest consistently rising faster than "enterprise software" search interest.

Confidence: high

2. GitHub — Open-Source Project Data

Metric/field Monthly average stars/forks for top 10 open-source generative AI models (e.g., Llama, Stable Diffusion) on GitHub

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Increased activity and adoption of open-source AI frameworks indicate a growing capability for enterprises to build custom AI solutions, reducing reliance on commercial off-the-shelf software.

Signal to watch Sustained high growth in stars/forks suggests increasing developer interest and capability in open-source AI, enabling alternatives to commercial software.

Confidence: high

3. Reddit — Subreddit Activity (r/singularity, r/artificialintelligence)

Metric/field Number of posts/comments discussing "AI job displacement," "software commoditization," or "AI replacing software" on r/singularity and r/artificialintelligence

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Increased discussion volume on these topics indicates growing public and professional sentiment around the disruptive potential of AI on traditional software and labor markets.

Signal to watch Sustained increase in discussion volume around AI's disruptive impact.

Confidence: medium

4. Microsoft, AWS, Google Cloud official newsrooms/blogs — Product Announcements, Partnership News

Metric/field Number and scope of new AI model/tool launches or significant AI partnerships by hyperscalers (e.g., Microsoft, AWS, Google Cloud)

Cadence event_driven/monthly

Why it matters Hyperscalers bundling comprehensive AI and data tools empowers enterprises to build custom solutions, reducing reliance on commercial software. Frequent, impactful announcements accelerate this trend.

Signal to watch Frequent announcements of powerful, accessible AI tools and models from hyperscalers.

Confidence: high

5. LinkedIn Economic Graph (public reports/insights) — Skill Endorsement Data

Metric/field YoY growth rate of AI/Machine Learning skill endorsements on LinkedIn profiles (global)

Cadence quarterly/annually

Why it matters A rapid increase in AI/ML skill endorsements indicates a growing workforce capable of implementing and developing AI solutions, supporting the "homegrown" tools thesis.

Signal to watch Accelerating growth in AI/ML skill endorsements.

Confidence: medium

Paid Alt Data Watch

1. Gartner, IDC, Forrester Research — Market Share & Forecasts for Enterprise Software

Metric/field Market share and growth rate of "AI-native" or "AI-first" software solutions vs. "traditional" or "legacy" enterprise software by segment (e.g., CRM, ERP, HCM)

Cadence Quarterly/Annually

Why it matters Directly tracks the shift in enterprise spending away from traditional software towards AI-native solutions, validating the theme's core premise.

Signal to watch Accelerating market share gains and growth for AI-native solutions, coupled with stagnation or decline in traditional software.

Confidence: high

2. Thinknum Alternative Data, Revelio Labs — Job Postings Data

Metric/field Number of job postings for "AI/ML Engineer" vs. "Software Engineer" (excluding AI/ML) within the enterprise software industry (e.g., for CRM, HCM companies)

Cadence weekly/monthly

Why it matters A significant shift in hiring priorities towards AI/ML roles within traditional software companies indicates their internal pivot and the displacement of traditional development.

Signal to watch Sustained increase in AI/ML engineer postings relative to traditional software engineer postings within theme-relevant companies.

Confidence: high

3. Apptopia, Sensor Tower — App Usage & Download Data

Metric/field Monthly Active Users (MAU) or Downloads for AI-enabled versions/features of enterprise software apps (e.g., Adobe Express AI, Workday Mobile with AI features) vs. non-AI versions

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks real-world customer adoption and engagement with AI features within existing software, indicating whether AI is driving new usage or simply being integrated.

Signal to watch Strong MAU/download growth for AI-enabled features, especially if it cannibalizes or significantly outpaces non-AI usage.

Confidence: medium

4. Gartner Peer Insights, G2 Crowd (premium data access) — Customer Review Data

Metric/field Sentiment analysis (positive/negative mentions of "AI," "automation," "agent") and ROI discussions in customer reviews for enterprise software products (e.g., Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow)

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Direct customer feedback on AI features, particularly regarding ROI and ease of adoption, can signal whether "AI anxiety" or "monetization headwinds" are impacting real-world value realization.

Signal to watch Increasing negative sentiment or complaints about ROI/complexity for AI features, or positive sentiment for "good enough" open-source/hyperscaler alternatives.

Confidence: medium

5. S&P Global Market Intelligence, Bloomberg Terminal, FactSet — Company Financials / Analyst Estimates

Metric/field Aggregate AI-Native Revenue Contribution (as % of total revenue) for major enterprise software vendors (e.g., ADBE, CRM, WDAY, NOW)

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters A rapidly increasing percentage indicates AI is becoming the dominant revenue driver, displacing traditional software, supporting the short thesis.

Signal to watch A rapidly increasing percentage (>5% QoQ) indicates AI is becoming the dominant revenue driver, displacing traditional software.

Confidence: high

LLM_Approved · Updated 2026-09-07

Key Metrics3 rows
MetricCadenceWhat It SignalsUpdate Source
Annual Growth Rate of Global Enterprise Spending on AI-Native Software SolutionsAnnually (with interim quarterly updates/forecasts)Sustained high growth (>30% YoY) indicates rapid adoption of AI-native solutions, accelerating traditional software obsolescence, supporting the short thesis.LLM_Approved
Aggregate AI-Native Revenue Contribution for Major Enterprise Software VendorsQuarterly (as companies report earnings)A rapidly increasing percentage (>5% QoQ) indicates AI is becoming the dominant revenue driver, displacing traditional software, supporting the short thesis.LLM_Approved
Number of AI Bias & Compliance Lawsuit Filings and Regulatory Actions against Enterprise Software VendorsQuarterly/OngoingAn increasing trend signals growing regulatory and legal friction, slowing enterprise AI adoption and monetization, supporting the short thesis.LLM_Approved

Gartner, IDC, or Forrester Research (e.g., "Worldwide AI Software Market Forecasts") · Updated 2026-09-07

Upcoming Catalysts29 rows
CatalystEstimated TimingEstimated Date StartEstimated Date EndWhy It MattersTicker Or Theme SpecificSource TypesContributing TickersMention CountBase ScoreSource WeightSpecificity WeightMacro BridgeMacro Bridge MultiplierTheme ScoreDate AggregatedManual OverrideBridge Mention CountTheme Base ScoreTheme Importance ScoreCatalyst SourceCatalyst IDTranscript DateSource Type
Ongoing compliance with the EU AI Act's transparency obligations for generative AI, including machine-readable watermarks for AI-generated content, with a grace period for existing systems extending until December 2026.September - December 20262026-09-072026-12-02This directly impacts how AI-driven software operates within the EU, potentially increasing compliance costs and operational complexities for vendors, and influencing customer adoption due to new transparency requirements for AI-generated content. The ongoing nature of compliance and potential deferrals for other high-risk systems create continued uncertainty and friction for enterprise AI adoption.Themetheme_composerADBE, CRM, WDAY, NOW, U, SPGI, DDOG, HUBS, TEAM, MNDY, PAR110.02131.181.0Economic1.253.14792026-09-07False22.1728320.4936Theme composer
Upcoming Q3 2026 (or Q1 FY27 for Atlassian) earnings reports from major enterprise software vendors will provide crucial updates on AI-native revenue growth, customer adoption rates of AI features, and management's outlook on AI's impact on traditional software.September - December 20262026-09-102026-12-01These reports will directly signal whether AI is accelerating the obsolescence of traditional software (supporting the short thesis) or if incumbent companies are successfully integrating and monetizing AI, leveraging their data moats and adapting their offerings. Key metrics like AI-native ARR and customer adoption will be closely watched.Themetheme_composerADBE, CRM, WDAY, NOW, U, SPGI, DDOG, HUBS, TEAM, MNDY, PAR110.02131.181.0Economic1.253.14792026-09-07False22.1728320.4936Theme composer
Further legal proceedings, potential settlement discussions, or a trial date are expected in the class-action lawsuit alleging discrimination in Workday's AI hiring tools, following the June 22, 2026, ruling allowing key claims to proceed.Ongoing, Q3 2026 and beyond2026-07-312027-06-30This lawsuit could set a significant precedent for AI governance and ethics in enterprise software, directly impacting Workday's HR solutions and potentially increasing 'AI anxiety' and caution among enterprises considering AI adoption across various software categories, thus slowing monetization for multiple vendors.Themetheme_composerADBE, CRM, WDAY, NOW, U, SPGI, DDOG, HUBS, TEAM, MNDY, PAR110.02181.180.92Court/Legal1.33.07552026-09-07False12.1728306.6483Theme composer
The unpredictable announcement or release of a significantly more capable generative AI model from a major hyperscaler or a breakthrough in open-source AI frameworks.Q3 2026 - Q4 20262026-07-312026-12-31Such a development could accelerate the commoditization of core software functionalities, providing 'good enough' alternatives that bypass commercial platforms and reducing reliance on specialized software, thereby supporting the 'AI-Obsolete Software' short thesis for multiple tickers.Themetheme_composerADBE, CRM, WDAY, NOW, U, SPGI, DDOG, HUBS, TEAM, MNDY, PAR110.01951.180.921.02.12112026-09-07False12.1728235.8833Theme composer
Appointment of Adobe's next permanent CEO.Our goal is to have Adobe's next CEO in place. To put their stamp on planning for fiscal 27 and beyond.2026-09-012026-11-30This is a significant leadership transition that will shape Adobe's strategic direction for fiscal year 2027 and beyond. A strong appointment could boost investor confidence and ensure continuity in execution.TickerADBE (ticker)ADBE_e03306042026-06-11earnings_transcript
Initial phase of compliance and market adaptation to the Colorado Artificial Intelligence Act (SB24-205).effective on July 1, 20262026-07-012026-10-01This state-level AI legislation sets a precedent for US domestic AI regulation, requiring companies to adapt their agentic systems for compliance and influencing areas like data privacy and ethical AI development.ThemeADBE (ticker)ADBE_7037521c2026-06-11earnings_transcript
Salesforce's Dreamforce event, including Investor Day and major product announcements.next month2026-09-012026-09-30Dreamforce is a major platform for showcasing new products, strategies, and financial frameworks, generating customer and investor excitement and providing updates on key AI initiatives.TickerCRM (ticker)CRM_17f82e042026-08-26earnings_transcript
General Availability (GA) launch of Claudeforce, a new product combining Anthropic's AI with Salesforce's CRM.in September to everyone at Dreamforce2026-09-012026-09-30This launch is expected to unlock significant value and drive new demand, especially for premium editions, impacting revenue and competitive position in the AI-driven CRM market.TickerCRM (ticker)CRM_b18913f52026-08-26earnings_transcript
Completion of the Contentful and Fin acquisitions.in the coming weeks2026-08-262026-09-30These acquisitions are expected to contribute $200 million to FY 2027 revenue guidance, indicating a direct financial impact and strategic expansion of Salesforce's offerings.TickerCRM (ticker)CRM_2aa0aa5a2026-08-26earnings_transcript
The full rollout and widespread adoption of Agentforce Coworker, making autonomous agents built into all Salesforce applications available to all customers.as we get Agentforce Coworker live for all of our customers2026-07-012026-09-30This product is expected to significantly enhance Salesforce applications, driving increased token usage, customer adoption, and potential upsell opportunities, impacting revenue and product stickiness.TickerCRM (ticker)CRM_535edcb82026-05-27earnings_transcript
Successful development and implementation of monetization strategies for the Headless 360 platform, expanding Salesforce's addressable market.next leg of our path to FY '302026-04-012030-01-31This strategy aims to drive new revenue streams by allowing customers to access Salesforce capabilities through any interface. Successful monetization will positively impact long-term growth and valuation.TickerCRM (ticker)CRM_9849145f2026-05-27earnings_transcript
Salesforce achieving organic revenue reacceleration as guided for the second half of fiscal year 2027.second half of FY '272026-08-012027-01-31This is a critical management guidance metric. Achieving reacceleration would validate their strategy and execution, positively impacting revenue growth and investor sentiment.TickerCRM (ticker)CRM_0574a23d2026-05-27earnings_transcript
General Availability (GA) launch of a new AI-native conversational service desk experience product, which is the first of many net new AI native products.very shortly, soon will be GA, in the weeks to come2026-07-232026-10-23This new product-led motion expands ServiceNow's total addressable market (TAM) to the Fortune 500,000, potentially driving significant new customer acquisition and revenue growth from AI-native offerings.TickerNOW (ticker)NOW_37f037492026-07-22earnings_transcript
Achievement of ServiceNow's Q3 2026 financial guidance, including subscription revenues between $3.975 billion and $3.980 billion, and 20% constant currency CRPO growth.For Q32026-07-012026-09-30Meeting these short-term financial targets would signal continued strong execution and demand for ServiceNow's offerings, providing positive momentum and validating management's outlook.TickerNOW (ticker)NOW_45fcb1362026-07-22earnings_transcript
Retirement of approximately $500 million in debt using proceeds from the Mobility Global spin-off dividend.primarily for the repurchase of shares with about $500 million for some debt retirement2026-07-012026-09-30This debt reduction improves the company's balance sheet and financial flexibility, contributing to a stronger financial profile and potentially reducing interest expenses.TickerSPGI (ticker)SPGI_97b802892026-07-28earnings_transcript
Large-scale debt offerings from hyperscalers for AI infrastructure CapEx.We expect that to continue in 2026, albeit spread more throughout the year.2026-09-102026-09-30Aggregate hyperscaler debt issuance exceeding $50 billion in H1 2026 would be bullish, providing upside to Ratings guidance and demonstrating a new source of demand.TickerSPGI (ticker)SPGI_ad8834e92026-02-10earnings_transcript
HubSpot's Annual Analyst Day at Unbound will take place in Boston.September 172026-09-172026-09-17This event is expected to provide further details on HubSpot's strategic direction, AI roadmap, and financial outlook, which could influence investor sentiment and future growth expectations.TickerHUBS (ticker)HUBS_287659972026-08-05earnings_transcript
Achievement of ServiceNow's updated 2026 AI Annual Contract Value (ACV) target of $1.5 billion, tracking ahead of the initial target.by the end of 20262026-10-012026-12-31Exceeding this raised target would signal strong adoption and successful monetization of ServiceNow's AI offerings, reinforcing the bullish investment case for its AI-native platform.TickerNOW (ticker)NOW_330b8d992026-07-22earnings_transcript
Completion of headcount rationalization post-acquisitions (Moveworks, Vesa, Armis) to pre-acquisition levels.complete this cycle of 2026 and start 20272026-10-012026-12-31This indicates successful integration and cost discipline, expected to drive operating and free cash flow margin expansion, reinforcing the company's financial strength and commitment to the 'Rule of 60' target.TickerNOW (ticker)NOW_e6ce8e312026-07-22earnings_transcript
Official launch of CERA Titan, S&P Global Energy's new AI-native platform for upstream data.later this year2026-10-012026-12-31This launch expands S&P Global's AI-native offerings in the Energy division, potentially driving new revenue and strengthening its competitive position in upstream data and insights.TickerSPGI (ticker)SPGI_22c9aad22026-07-28earnings_transcript
Beta launch of Unity 7, an open collaborative platform enabling developers, artists, producers, and coding agents to work together.Q4 of 20262026-10-012026-12-31This beta release will provide initial insights into the adoption and impact of Unity's next-generation software, which is anticipated to significantly expand the creation of interactive entertainment.TickerU (ticker)U_9a620c6a2026-08-06earnings_transcript
Atlassian's Team '26 Europe conference in Amsterdam. Management indicated that further improvements related to the Teamwork Graph and AI will be showcased.October2026-10-062026-10-08This event is expected to reveal new product innovations and enhancements, particularly around AI and the Teamwork Graph, which are key drivers for customer adoption, expansion, and monetization of Atlassian's platform.TickerTEAM (ticker)TEAM_bd76166d2026-08-06earnings_transcript
Workday's annual customer conference, Workday Rising, will feature major innovation announcements, live demos, and customer testimonials. The Financial Analyst Day will also be held during this period.October 12-152026-10-122026-10-15This event is a key platform for Workday to showcase its latest AI innovations and strategy, which could drive investor sentiment and provide deeper insights into future financial performance.TickerWDAY (ticker)WDAY_f2ea061f2026-08-27earnings_transcript
Sana's conversational AI experience will become the default home screen for Workday.By Workday Rising in October2026-10-122026-10-15This represents a significant shift in user experience, deeply embedding AI into the core Workday platform, which is expected to accelerate AI adoption and monetization.TickerWDAY (ticker)WDAY_a2aca8852026-08-27earnings_transcript
Unity plans to pay off its 2026 convertible debt.November2026-11-012026-11-30This action will delever Unity's balance sheet, transitioning the company to a net cash position and providing significant flexibility for future capital allocation.TickerU (ticker)U_56bdf3e02026-08-06earnings_transcript
Major hyperscaler conferences, including Microsoft Ignite and AWS re:Invent, will feature significant announcements regarding AI infrastructure, new models, and pricing strategies.November - December 20262026-11-172026-12-04These events are key platforms for showcasing advancements that could further commoditize core software functionalities or alter the cost structure for AI integration, impacting the competitive landscape and profitability of enterprise software vendors.Themetheme_composerADBE, CRM, WDAY, NOW, U, SPGI, DDOG, HUBS, TEAM, MNDY, PAR110.0211.181.05Conference/Council1.23.12842026-09-07False12.1728323.0576Theme composer
Full commercial release of Unity 7, a new generation of software designed for open collaboration and AI-powered development.Q1 of '272027-01-012027-03-31This is expected to be Unity's most impactful release, fundamentally changing game creation, expanding the addressable market, and driving increased platform usage and downstream revenue.TickerU (ticker)U_8263b60e2026-08-06earnings_transcript
Slack achieving $10 billion in annual revenue.in short order2027-05-272028-05-27This represents a major growth milestone for Slack, confirming its successful integration and expansion within Salesforce's portfolio, and would positively impact overall revenue and valuation.TickerCRM (ticker)CRM_f0e419cf2026-05-27earnings_transcript
Slack reaching a point where the number of AI agents using the platform surpasses the number of human users.In 2 years2028-05-272028-05-31This milestone would demonstrate a significant shift towards agentic enterprise operations, validating Slack's strategic importance and potentially leading to substantial growth in usage and monetization.TickerCRM (ticker)CRM_1b0887fa2026-05-27earnings_transcript

LLM_Approved · Updated 2026-09-07

Notes3 rows

Transcript Summary

DateTypeCommentDetailSentimentTickers
2026-08-09Theme UpdateThe theme refresh confirms "AI Short '26: AI-Obsolete Software" remains compellingly bearish. Advanced AI increasingly commoditizes software and enables agentic systems, gaining traction for obsolescence. While incumbents like Adobe and Salesforce show strong AI-driven growth and data moats, "AI anxiety" and adoption friction persist, highlighting ongoing challenges for traditional software.

Transcript Summary

BearishADBE, CRM, WDAY, NOW, U, SPGI, DDOG, HUBS, PAR
2026-08-21Theme UpdateThe theme remains compellingly bearish. Recent earnings confirm AI innovation outpaces customer adoption, creating monetization headwinds for many incumbents despite strong AI usage metrics (CRM, WDAY, HUBS). While some (ADBE, NOW) show robust AI-driven growth, widespread 'AI anxiety' and regulatory friction (WDAY lawsuit, EU AI Act) persist, slowing value realization and reinforcing the long-term obsolescence thesis for traditional software.

Earnings Summary

BearishADBE, CRM, WDAY, NOW, HUBS, MNDY, DDOG, TEAM, SPGI, U
2026-09-07Theme UpdateThe theme remains compellingly bearish. While several incumbents (ADBE, CRM, WDAY, NOW, U) show robust AI-driven growth and strong data moats, the broader trend reveals AI innovation outpacing widespread customer adoption and monetization. Persistent "AI anxiety," regulatory friction, and customer scrutiny over AI costs (SPGI) are creating headwinds and driving some towards in-house solutions, reinforcing the long-term obsolescence thesis for traditional software.

Transcript Summary

BearishADBE, CRM, WDAY, NOW, HUBS, MNDY, DDOG, TEAM, SPGI, U

LLM_Approved · Updated 2026-09-07

Constituents

  • ADBET2
    — Adobe Inc.
  • CRMT2
    — Salesforce, Inc.
  • HUBST2
    — HubSpot, Inc.
  • MNDYT2
    — monday.com Ltd.
  • NOWT2
    — ServiceNow, Inc.
  • TEAMT2
    — Atlassian Corporation
  • WDAYT2
    — Workday, Inc.
  • DDOGT3
    — Datadog, Inc.
  • PART3
    — PAR Technology Corporation
  • SPGIT3
    — S&P Global Inc.
  • UT3
    — Unity Software Inc.
  • ADSKT3
    · no notes yet
  • BRZET3
    · no notes yet
  • RPDT3
    · no notes yet
  • SAPT3
    · no notes yet