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Home / Themes / AI Short '25: Expected AI Losers

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Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).

Overview

Hiring Trend Watchpoints

Investors should monitor for a divergence in hiring trends. For companies successfully adapting to AI, expect increased hiring for specialized AI-related roles such as 'AI model and application development,' 'AI literacy specialists,' 'prompt engineers,' and 'AI orchestrators' who combine technical AI fluency with domain expertise. Evidence of internal reskilling programs and reallocation of existing talent towards AI integration (e.g., SAP reallocating consultants to build agents [cite: SAP.XETRA_TranscriptTidbits]) would signal effective adaptation. Conversely, a strengthening of the 'AI Losers' thesis would be confirmed by sustained hiring freezes, significant layoffs, or a reduction in overall headcount in roles highly susceptible to automation, such as administrative support, basic content creation, entry-level customer service, and data entry. The ManpowerGroup 2026 Talent Shortage Survey indicates that AI skills are now the hardest to find globally, suggesting a bottleneck in talent acquisition for companies attempting to pivot.

Forum Watchlist

Reddit — r/singularityHigh
Discussions on AI's societal impact, job displacement, and the future of work.
Reddit — r/freelanceHigh
Freelancer sentiment, rate changes, and adoption/impact of generative AI tools.
Reddit — r/legaltechMedium
Discussions on AI tools in legal practice, attorney roles, and efficiency gains.
Reddit — r/webdesignMedium
Impact of AI website builders, template obsolescence, and new design workflows.
Reddit — r/insurtechMedium
AI's role in underwriting, claims processing, and competitive moats in insurance.
LinkedIn Group — Future of WorkHigh
Professional discussions on AI's impact on employment, skills, and organizational structures.
Niche Forum — Etsy Seller ForumsMedium
Seller discussions on AI-generated products, policy changes, and market saturation.
Niche Forum — Stock Photography ForumsMedium
Discussions on AI image generation, copyright, and licensing challenges for stock media providers.

Industry Publications

Staffing Industry Analysts (SIA) (staffingindustry.com) — Covers global staffing trends, AI's impact on employment, and workforce transformation, highly relevant for companies like ManpowerGroup and general job displacement trends.
Legaltech News (legaltechnews.com) — Provides in-depth coverage of AI adoption, innovation, and challenges within the legal sector.
CMSWire (cmswire.com) — Focuses on customer experience, contact center technology, and business process automation, relevant for Five9 and BPO players.
Insurtech Insights (insurtechinsights.com) — Specializes in the intersection of insurance and technology, tracking AI's role in underwriting, claims, and competitive dynamics for companies like Lemonade.
EdSurge (edsurge.com) — Covers education technology, AI tutors, and digital learning platforms, relevant for Chegg, Coursera, and Pearson.
Adweek (adweek.com) — Reports on trends in creative industries, generative AI's impact on content creation, and digital marketplaces like Fiverr and Upwork.
The Information (theinformation.com) — Offers deep dives into tech business models, competitive dynamics, and strategic shifts driven by AI across various sectors.

Second Order Trends

The primary second-order trend is the widespread **AI Adaptation and Pivot** by many companies initially identified as 'losers.' Instead of being displaced, companies like Wix, Lemonade, Five9, Paychex, Monday.com, and Asana are actively integrating AI to enhance their platforms, automate processes, and create new revenue streams [cite: WIX_BullBearDetails, 3, 6, 8, 13, 15, 18, 29, 31, 35, 37, 40, 43, 46, 47]. This weakens the broad 'loser' thesis but creates new competitive battlegrounds. A second trend is the emergence of the **'AI Orchestrator' Economy**, where lower-complexity AI execution tasks are becoming commoditized with declining earnings, while roles that combine AI fluency with human judgment, domain expertise, and workflow design are commanding higher premiums. This signifies a shift in the value chain of work. Third, **Agentic AI and Autonomous Enterprise** are becoming central to enterprise software strategies, with companies like SAP, Paychex, and Five9 developing AI agents that can perform end-to-end business processes autonomously [cite: SAP.XETRA_Overview, SAP.XETRA_BullBearDetails, 18, 29]. This pushes automation beyond simple chatbots. Fourth, **Copyright and Licensing in Generative AI** remains a critical and evolving area, particularly for creative content and stock media providers. Companies like Getty Images are engaged in legal battles while simultaneously exploring licensing partnerships with AI developers. This highlights the complex intellectual property challenges and potential new monetization models. Finally, **AI Cost Optimization** is an emerging focus, as companies scaling AI-heavy products, like Wix, grapple with elevated AI compute costs and seek to improve gross margins through efficiency [cite: WIX_BullBearDetails, WIX_TranscriptTidbits].

Search Keywords Brand Product

ChatGPT
Midjourney
Stable Diffusion
Generative AI
AI Tutors
AI Content Moderation
AI Customer Service
AI Legal Discovery
AI Website Builder
AI Insurance Underwriting
AI Project Management
AI HR Automation
AI Search Engine Optimization
AI Voice Agents
AI Staffing
AI Business Process Automation
AI-generated designs
AI Stock Photography
Joule Work
WISE platform
Singularity XDR
Base 44
Wix Harmony
Voice AI Agents

Search Keywords Policy Regulatory

AI copyright infringement
AI data privacy
AI job displacement regulation
AI content disclosure
AI ethics guidelines
AI liability

Search Keywords Event Phrases

VivaTech Startup Challenge
Customer Contact Week
Sapphire conference

Google Trend Product Category Intent

• AI tutor • AI website builder • AI image generator • AI legal assistant • AI HR software • AI customer service bot • AI project manager • AI insurance quote • AI content creation tools

Google Trend Consumer Intent

• Jobs replaced by AI • AI job loss • Freelance AI impact • Learn AI skills • AI career change • AI side hustle • AI generated art for sale • AI automation jobs

Google Trend Macro Policy Terms

• AI regulation • Future of work AI • AI workforce impact

Top datasets to track

1. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Type: Economic Data · Provider: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: Tracks overall job growth/loss and sector-specific employment, providing macro context for AI-driven job displacement and workforce shifts. Suggested query: BLS employment situation report Confidence: High

2. Upwork Future Workforce Index / Freelancer Earnings Data Type: Alternative Data · Provider: Upwork Inc. Cadence: Annually/Quarterly Why it matters: Directly measures the impact of AI on freelance earnings, contract volume, and skill premiums on a major platform, indicating commoditization vs. value-add in the gig economy. Suggested query: Upwork Future Workforce Index Confidence: High

3. ManpowerGroup Talent Shortage Survey Type: Alternative Data · Provider: ManpowerGroup Inc. Cadence: Annually Why it matters: Identifies the hardest-to-find skills globally, including AI-related skills, and employer sentiment on hiring difficulty, signaling the pace of workforce transformation and skill gaps. Suggested query: ManpowerGroup Talent Shortage Survey 2026 Confidence: High

4. Etsy Seller & Listing Growth (with AI disclosure trends) Type: Company-level Data / Alternative Data · Provider: Etsy Inc. (earnings reports) / Third-party analytics Cadence: Quarterly / Ad-hoc Why it matters: Monitors the volume of AI-generated products, seller adoption of AI, and policy enforcement, indicating how creative marketplaces are adapting to generative AI. Suggested query: Etsy earnings AI products Confidence: Medium

5. Lemonade Gross Loss Ratio & Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) Ratio Type: Company-level Financial Data · Provider: Lemonade Inc. (earnings reports) Cadence: Quarterly Why it matters: Directly measures the operational efficiency and underwriting accuracy driven by Lemonade's AI, indicating whether its AI moat is strengthening or weakening against incumbents. Suggested query: Lemonade earnings loss ratio Confidence: High

Upcoming Catalysts4 rows

Catalyst ID	Estimated Timing	Estimated Date Start	Estimated Date End	Catalyst	Why It Matters	Ticker Or Theme Specific	Transcript Date	Source Type	Catalyst Source
NTNX_2ca36c8d	late 2026	2026-10-01	2026-12-31	First jointly developed Nutanix-powered agentic AI platform with AMD, with initial customer delivery expected in late 2026.	Could unlock a new enterprise AI platform opportunity for Nutanix, expanding addressable AI workloads and potentially boosting bookings and ARR if the collaboration meets milestones.	Ticker	2026-02-25	earnings_transcript	NTNX (ticker)
S_abee4b06	Once fully implemented, we expect this action to result in approximately $45 million in annualized cost savings.	2026-08-01	2027-07-31	Realization of approximately $45 million in annualized cost savings from SentinelOne's workforce optimization initiative, following a one-time restructuring charge in Q2 FY27.	These savings are expected to provide financial flexibility, allow reinvestment in key growth areas, and contribute to significant operating margin expansion, positively impacting profitability and shareholder value.	Ticker	2026-05-28	earnings_transcript	S (ticker)
WIX_def59a6f	we expect to complete the large majority of our $2,000,000,000 repurchase program this year. We plan to do this as quickly and aggressively as we can.	2026-03-07	2026-12-31	Completion of the $2 billion share repurchase program.	This strategic action signals management's strong conviction in the company's valuation and future prospects, potentially enhancing shareholder value and boosting investor confidence.	Ticker	2026-03-04	earnings_transcript	WIX (ticker)
WIX_560ff87c	We anticipate non-GAAP gross margin for Base 44 to improve sequentially throughout 2026 as we proactively optimize AI model usage and costs primarily through enhancing prompt caching, batching requests, focused model routing, and more favorable pricing from LLM providers. We expect Base 44 gross margin to increase as the year progresses.	2026-03-07	2026-12-31	Sequential improvement in Base 44's non-GAAP gross margin due to optimization of AI model usage and costs.	Improved margins for Base 44 are crucial for its profitability and overall company financial performance, addressing investor concerns about the impact of AI compute costs on profitability.	Ticker	2026-03-04	earnings_transcript	WIX (ticker)

September 2026

Sep 23Novartis defeats drug-purchaser lawsuit over delay of Entresto generics
Reuters
Sep 23Erin Brockovich and Justin Pearson Urge Communities to Act Against Data Centers
The New York Times — PSO
Sep 23Paychex's Sales Growth Slows
The Wall Street Journal — PAYX

Constituents

LAWT2
— CS Disco, Inc.
MNDYT2
— monday.com Ltd.
SAP.XETRAT2
— SAP SE
NTNXT3
— Nutanix, Inc.
ST3
— SentinelOne, Inc.
WIXT3
— Wix.com Ltd.
APX.AUT3
· no notes yet
ASANT3
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CHGGT3
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CNDTT3
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CNXCT3
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COURT3
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ETSYT3
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FIVNT3
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FVRRT3
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GETYT3
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IBEXT3
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KFRCT3
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LMNDT3
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MANT3
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NRDYT3
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PAYXT3
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PSOT3
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SSTKT3
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TEP.PAT3
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TRIPT3
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UPWKT3
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YEXTT3
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AI Short '25: Expected AI Losers (open on stockthemes)