Home / Themes / AI Short '25: Expected AI Losers
AI Short '25: Expected AI Losers (view performance)
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Theme no thesis · 2/5 sections · Tickers 4 with notes · 24 pending
Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).
Overview
Hiring Trend Watchpoints
Investors should monitor for a divergence in hiring trends. For companies successfully adapting to AI, expect increased hiring for specialized AI-related roles such as 'AI model and application development,' 'AI literacy specialists,' 'prompt engineers,' and 'AI orchestrators' who combine technical AI fluency with domain expertise. Evidence of internal reskilling programs and reallocation of existing talent towards AI integration (e.g., SAP reallocating consultants to build agents [cite: SAP.XETRA_TranscriptTidbits]) would signal effective adaptation. Conversely, a strengthening of the 'AI Losers' thesis would be confirmed by sustained hiring freezes, significant layoffs, or a reduction in overall headcount in roles highly susceptible to automation, such as administrative support, basic content creation, entry-level customer service, and data entry. The ManpowerGroup 2026 Talent Shortage Survey indicates that AI skills are now the hardest to find globally, suggesting a bottleneck in talent acquisition for companies attempting to pivot.
Forum Watchlist
- Reddit — r/singularityHigh
Discussions on AI's societal impact, job displacement, and the future of work.
- Reddit — r/freelanceHigh
Freelancer sentiment, rate changes, and adoption/impact of generative AI tools.
- Reddit — r/legaltechMedium
Discussions on AI tools in legal practice, attorney roles, and efficiency gains.
- Reddit — r/webdesignMedium
Impact of AI website builders, template obsolescence, and new design workflows.
- Reddit — r/insurtechMedium
AI's role in underwriting, claims processing, and competitive moats in insurance.
- LinkedIn Group — Future of WorkHigh
Professional discussions on AI's impact on employment, skills, and organizational structures.
- Niche Forum — Etsy Seller ForumsMedium
Seller discussions on AI-generated products, policy changes, and market saturation.
- Niche Forum — Stock Photography ForumsMedium
Discussions on AI image generation, copyright, and licensing challenges for stock media providers.
Second Order Trends
The primary second-order trend is the widespread **AI Adaptation and Pivot** by many companies initially identified as 'losers.' Instead of being displaced, companies like Wix, Lemonade, Five9, Paychex, Monday.com, and Asana are actively integrating AI to enhance their platforms, automate processes, and create new revenue streams [cite: WIX_BullBearDetails, 3, 6, 8, 13, 15, 18, 29, 31, 35, 37, 40, 43, 46, 47]. This weakens the broad 'loser' thesis but creates new competitive battlegrounds.
A second trend is the emergence of the **'AI Orchestrator' Economy**, where lower-complexity AI execution tasks are becoming commoditized with declining earnings, while roles that combine AI fluency with human judgment, domain expertise, and workflow design are commanding higher premiums. This signifies a shift in the value chain of work.
Third, **Agentic AI and Autonomous Enterprise** are becoming central to enterprise software strategies, with companies like SAP, Paychex, and Five9 developing AI agents that can perform end-to-end business processes autonomously [cite: SAP.XETRA_Overview, SAP.XETRA_BullBearDetails, 18, 29]. This pushes automation beyond simple chatbots.
Fourth, **Copyright and Licensing in Generative AI** remains a critical and evolving area, particularly for creative content and stock media providers. Companies like Getty Images are engaged in legal battles while simultaneously exploring licensing partnerships with AI developers. This highlights the complex intellectual property challenges and potential new monetization models.
Finally, **AI Cost Optimization** is an emerging focus, as companies scaling AI-heavy products, like Wix, grapple with elevated AI compute costs and seek to improve gross margins through efficiency [cite: WIX_BullBearDetails, WIX_TranscriptTidbits].
Search Keywords Brand Product
- ChatGPT
- Midjourney
- Stable Diffusion
- Generative AI
- AI Tutors
- AI Content Moderation
- AI Customer Service
- AI Legal Discovery
- AI Website Builder
- AI Insurance Underwriting
- AI Project Management
- AI HR Automation
- AI Search Engine Optimization
- AI Voice Agents
- AI Staffing
- AI Business Process Automation
- AI-generated designs
- AI Stock Photography
- Joule Work
- WISE platform
- Singularity XDR
- Base 44
- Wix Harmony
- Voice AI Agents
Search Keywords Policy Regulatory
- AI copyright infringement
- AI data privacy
- AI job displacement regulation
- AI content disclosure
- AI ethics guidelines
- AI liability
Search Keywords Event Phrases
- VivaTech Startup Challenge
- Customer Contact Week
- Sapphire conference
Google Trend Product Category Intent
• AI tutor
• AI website builder
• AI image generator
• AI legal assistant
• AI HR software
• AI customer service bot
• AI project manager
• AI insurance quote
• AI content creation tools
Google Trend Consumer Intent
• Jobs replaced by AI
• AI job loss
• Freelance AI impact
• Learn AI skills
• AI career change
• AI side hustle
• AI generated art for sale
• AI automation jobs
Google Trend Macro Policy Terms
• AI regulation
• Future of work AI
• AI workforce impact
Top datasets to track
1. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Type: Economic Data · Provider: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: Tracks overall job growth/loss and sector-specific employment, providing macro context for AI-driven job displacement and workforce shifts. Suggested query: BLS employment situation report Confidence: High
2. Upwork Future Workforce Index / Freelancer Earnings Data Type: Alternative Data · Provider: Upwork Inc. Cadence: Annually/Quarterly Why it matters: Directly measures the impact of AI on freelance earnings, contract volume, and skill premiums on a major platform, indicating commoditization vs. value-add in the gig economy. Suggested query: Upwork Future Workforce Index Confidence: High
3. ManpowerGroup Talent Shortage Survey Type: Alternative Data · Provider: ManpowerGroup Inc. Cadence: Annually Why it matters: Identifies the hardest-to-find skills globally, including AI-related skills, and employer sentiment on hiring difficulty, signaling the pace of workforce transformation and skill gaps. Suggested query: ManpowerGroup Talent Shortage Survey 2026 Confidence: High
4. Etsy Seller & Listing Growth (with AI disclosure trends) Type: Company-level Data / Alternative Data · Provider: Etsy Inc. (earnings reports) / Third-party analytics Cadence: Quarterly / Ad-hoc Why it matters: Monitors the volume of AI-generated products, seller adoption of AI, and policy enforcement, indicating how creative marketplaces are adapting to generative AI. Suggested query: Etsy earnings AI products Confidence: Medium
5. Lemonade Gross Loss Ratio & Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) Ratio Type: Company-level Financial Data · Provider: Lemonade Inc. (earnings reports) Cadence: Quarterly Why it matters: Directly measures the operational efficiency and underwriting accuracy driven by Lemonade's AI, indicating whether its AI moat is strengthening or weakening against incumbents. Suggested query: Lemonade earnings loss ratio Confidence: High
- Industry Publications
- [{"name": "Staffing Industry Analysts (SIA)", "domain": "staffingindustry.com", "why": "Covers global staffing trends, AI's impact on employment, and workforce transformation, highly relevant for companies like ManpowerGroup and general job displacement trends."}, {"name": "Legaltech News", "domain": "legaltechnews.com", "why": "Provides in-depth coverage of AI adoption, innovation, and challenges within the legal sector."}, {"name": "CMSWire", "domain": "cmswire.com", "why": "Focuses on customer experience, contact center technology, and business process automation, relevant for Five9 and BPO players."}, {"name": "Insurtech Insights", "domain": "insurtechinsights.com", "why": "Specializes in the intersection of insurance and technology, tracking AI's role in underwriting, claims, and competitive dynamics for companies like Lemonade." }, {"name": "EdSurge", "domain": "edsurge.com", "why": "Covers education technology, AI tutors, and digital learning platforms, relevant for Chegg, Coursera, and Pearson."}, {"name": "Adweek", "domain": "adweek.com", "why": "Reports on trends in creative industries, generative AI's impact on content creation, and digital marketplaces like Fiverr and Upwork."}, {"name": "The Information", "domain": "theinformation.com", "why": "Offers deep dives into tech business models, competitive dynamics, and strategic shifts driven by AI across various sectors."}]
Upcoming Catalysts
| Catalyst ID | Estimated Timing | Estimated Date Start | Estimated Date End | Catalyst | Why It Matters | Ticker Or Theme Specific | Transcript Date | Source Type | Catalyst Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAP.XETRA_01b3c188 | Over the next few weeks | 2026-07-23 | 2026-08-31 | Internal rollout of Joule Work desktop across SAP's functions. | This internal deployment serves as a crucial validation and testing phase for Joule Work, demonstrating SAP's confidence in its own AI tools and driving internal productivity before broader market adoption. | Ticker | 2026-07-23 | earnings_transcript | SAP.XETRA (ticker) |
| SAP.XETRA_8b5425e4 | this quarter | 2026-07-01 | 2026-09-30 | General availability launch of the new SAP Business AI platform. | This platform is foundational for SAP's AI strategy, enabling the creation, context, and governance of AI agents, crucial for driving enterprise AI adoption and future revenue growth. | Ticker | 2026-07-23 | earnings_transcript | SAP.XETRA (ticker) |
| SAP.XETRA_117ee27b | this quarter | 2026-07-01 | 2026-09-30 | General availability launch of the new end-to-end user experience, Joule Work. | Joule Work provides a unified interface for users to interact with AI agents across SAP's portfolio, dramatically accelerating outcomes for end users and driving AI adoption. | Ticker | 2026-07-23 | earnings_transcript | SAP.XETRA (ticker) |
| S_d1c5f63d | For the full fiscal year 2027 | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | SentinelOne's ability to meet or exceed its full fiscal year 2027 guidance for revenue ($1.195B-$1.205B), operating income ($110M-$120M), EPS ($0.32-$0.38), and adjusted free cash flow margin (tracking operating margin). | Achieving or surpassing these financial targets would validate management's strategy for profitable growth and positively impact investor confidence and valuation, while missing them could lead to negative sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript | S (ticker) |
| S_ec3cb123 | For the full fiscal year 2027 | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | SentinelOne's ability to achieve a year-over-year improvement in net new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for fiscal year 2027, as implied by its revenue outlook. | Sustained improvement in net new ARR is a key indicator of market demand, competitive strength, and future revenue growth potential, which is crucial for investor confidence. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript | S (ticker) |
| S_2ec5c046 | this year | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | The actual shift in SentinelOne's net new ARR seasonality from a 40/60 first-half/second-half dynamic to approximately a 50/50 split in fiscal year 2027. | A more balanced seasonality, particularly a stronger first half, could lead to more predictable and consistent revenue and ARR growth, potentially improving investor perception of execution. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript | S (ticker) |
| S_c9054e56 | still influence deal timing and sales cycles across the industry | 2026-03-18 | 2027-01-31 | The actual impact of the evolving macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainties on SentinelOne's deal timing and sales cycles. | A deterioration in macro conditions could lead to extended sales cycles and reduced customer spending, negatively impacting SentinelOne's ability to meet its financial targets. | Theme | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript | S (ticker) |
| S_3844628e | next year | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | SentinelOne's success in executing its strategy to optimize its sales force and achieve improved sales productivity throughout fiscal year 2027. | Enhanced sales productivity and an optimized go-to-market strategy are crucial for driving operating leverage and accelerating the path to the Rule of 40, directly impacting profitability and valuation. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript | S (ticker) |
| S_872ff40f | rising contributions from our emerging solutions, including AI, Data, Cloud, Wayfinder, and others | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | The sustained strong adoption and increasing revenue contribution from SentinelOne's emerging solutions, specifically AI security (Prompt Security), Data solutions (AI SIEM, DSPM), Cloud security, and Wayfinder Threat Services. | Continued robust growth in these diverse, high-demand areas validates the company's platform expansion strategy and is critical for long-term revenue growth and market leadership in the AI era. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript | S (ticker) |
| S_abee4b06 | Once fully implemented, we expect this action to result in approximately $45 million in annualized cost savings. | 2026-08-01 | 2027-07-31 | Realization of approximately $45 million in annualized cost savings from SentinelOne's workforce optimization initiative, following a one-time restructuring charge in Q2 FY27. | These savings are expected to provide financial flexibility, allow reinvestment in key growth areas, and contribute to significant operating margin expansion, positively impacting profitability and shareholder value. | Ticker | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | S (ticker) |
| S_2ae1066b | For the full fiscal year '27 | 2026-05-01 | 2027-04-30 | SentinelOne's ability to meet its full fiscal year 2027 guidance for revenue ($1.195 billion - $1.205 billion), operating income ($115 million - $125 million), and diluted earnings per share ($0.32 - $0.38). | Achieving or exceeding this guidance would validate management's strategy for durable growth and profitability, positively impacting investor sentiment and valuation. Missing it could lead to negative sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | S (ticker) |
| S_a0597409 | throughout the year | 2026-05-01 | 2027-04-30 | The rate of customer adoption and the resulting revenue contribution from SentinelOne's AI-native solutions, including Prompt Security, Purple AI, AI SIEM, and Cloud Security. | Strong adoption and revenue growth from these emerging solutions are critical for SentinelOne to expand its market share, diversify its revenue streams, and achieve its long-term growth targets, reinforcing its AI leadership. | Ticker | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | S (ticker) |
| S_e9ee3423 | structural tailwinds throughout the year | 2026-05-01 | 2027-04-30 | The evolving impact of frontier AI models (e.g., Mythos, GPT 5.5) on the cybersecurity threat landscape, customer spending behavior, and the expansion of the attack surface. | Increased AI-driven threats and an expanding attack surface could accelerate demand for SentinelOne's AI-native defense solutions, creating significant structural tailwinds and market share opportunities. | Theme | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | S (ticker) |
| WIX_10b3823a | expanding Wix Harmony globally in other languages, and over time, we plan to gradually make Harmony the default experience for new and existing users | 2026-03-07 | 2028-12-31 | Global expansion of Wix Harmony and its gradual transition to become the default user experience for new and existing users. | This product ramp is expected to drive meaningful long-term impact across conversion, engagement, retention, and monetization, fundamentally reshaping how individuals and small businesses build online. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | WIX (ticker) |
| WIX_7f018fe4 | explosive growth at Base 44, which we expect will become a profitable and meaningful long-term growth engine. ... continued outperformance of Base 44 as we expand our reach across the entire online creation journey. | 2026-03-07 | 2026-12-31 | Continued hyper-growth and scaling of Base 44, including its expansion into the broader online population and becoming a profitable, meaningful long-term growth engine. | Base 44 represents a significant expansion of Wix's total addressable market and is a key driver of future bookings and revenue growth. Its performance will materially impact overall company results and investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | WIX (ticker) |
| WIX_def59a6f | we expect to complete the large majority of our $2,000,000,000 repurchase program this year. We plan to do this as quickly and aggressively as we can. | 2026-03-07 | 2026-12-31 | Completion of the $2 billion share repurchase program. | This strategic action signals management's strong conviction in the company's valuation and future prospects, potentially enhancing shareholder value and boosting investor confidence. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | WIX (ticker) |
| WIX_560ff87c | We anticipate non-GAAP gross margin for Base 44 to improve sequentially throughout 2026 as we proactively optimize AI model usage and costs primarily through enhancing prompt caching, batching requests, focused model routing, and more favorable pricing from LLM providers. We expect Base 44 gross margin to increase as the year progresses. | 2026-03-07 | 2026-12-31 | Sequential improvement in Base 44's non-GAAP gross margin due to optimization of AI model usage and costs. | Improved margins for Base 44 are crucial for its profitability and overall company financial performance, addressing investor concerns about the impact of AI compute costs on profitability. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | WIX (ticker) |
| WIX_89c202a3 | we anticipate bookings and revenue growth to accelerate this year. ... For the full year 2026, we expect bookings and revenue for the consolidated business to grow at mid-teens percentage year over year. | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Achievement of mid-teens percentage year-over-year growth for consolidated bookings and revenue in 2026. | This is the core financial guidance for the year, reflecting the success of strategic initiatives like Wix Harmony and Base 44, and will directly impact investor sentiment and valuation. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | WIX (ticker) |
| WIX_3c1d7773 | For the full year 2026, we expect free cash flow margin in the low to mid-20% range assuming current capital structure excluding acquisition expenses. This wider than normal guidance range reflects the dynamic hyper-growth trajectory of Base 44 and the inherent variability that accompanies this level of rapid growth. | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Achievement of free cash flow margin in the low to mid-20% range for the full year 2026, with potential for lower end if Base 44 outperforms. | Free cash flow margin is a key indicator of profitability and financial health. The range highlights the trade-off between aggressive growth investments in Base 44 and near-term cash generation, impacting investor confidence. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | WIX (ticker) |
| WIX_278ec4b2 | a material currency headwind on our total payroll expense base net of our hedging activity as the U.S. dollar continues to significantly weaken against the Israeli shekel | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Continued significant weakening of the U.S. dollar against the Israeli shekel, leading to a material currency headwind on payroll expenses. | This macro-economic factor could negatively impact the company's free cash flow margins by increasing operational costs, potentially affecting profitability and guidance achievement. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | WIX (ticker) |
| NTNX_2ca36c8d | late 2026 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-12-31 | First jointly developed Nutanix-powered agentic AI platform with AMD, with initial customer delivery expected in late 2026. | Could unlock a new enterprise AI platform opportunity for Nutanix, expanding addressable AI workloads and potentially boosting bookings and ARR if the collaboration meets milestones. | Ticker | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript | NTNX (ticker) |
Constituents
- — SAP SE
- NTNXT3— Nutanix, Inc.
- ST3— SentinelOne, Inc.
- WIXT3— Wix.com Ltd.
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