TEM

Tempus AI, Inc.

Next est. report 2026-07-30 · AMC

AI '25: Data Owners AI '25: Healthcare ApplicationsData Owners '25: Healthcare, Claims & Clinical DataGenomics '25: Molecular Diagnostics & Clinical GenomicsMedTech Long '26: Diagnostics & Early Detection

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Overview

Tempus AI, Inc. uses genetic testing and AI-driven data analysis for personalized patient care. Its Diagnostics segment (75% revenue) offers oncology and heredi

Tempus AI, Inc. uses genetic testing and AI-driven data analysis for personalized patient care. Its Diagnostics segment (75% revenue) offers oncology and hereditary tests. The Data and Applications segment (25% revenue) licenses de-identified medical insights to pharmaceutical companies like Merck and Gilead, serving thousands of hospitals and researchers.

What They Do (Plain English & Analogies): Tempus AI is like a "Google for Cancer Data" that's expanding beyond just cancer. They run advanced labs that perform genetic tests (like DNA and RNA sequencing) for patients to understand their disease at a molecular level. But their real strength comes from combining this genetic information with a huge library of other patient data, including medical records, pathology images, and radiology scans. They use powerful Artificial Intelligence (AI) to analyze all this diverse data to generate insights. Imagine a regular GPS that just tells you where you are. Tempus is more like a Waze for healthcare; it takes your location (your test results) and combines it with real-time data from millions of other "drivers" (patients) to suggest the best "route" (treatment) and predict where the "traffic" (disease) might go next. They then license these insights and data to pharmaceutical companies to help them discover and develop new drugs faster, and they also provide tools to help doctors make more informed treatment decisions and match patients to clinical trials.
Very Brief History: Founded in 2015 by Eric Lefkofsky (co-founder of Groupon) after his wife's cancer diagnosis highlighted a lack of data-driven treatment options. Initially known as Tempus Labs, the company focused on building a vast multimodal data library. Key milestones include changing its name to Tempus AI in January 2023 to emphasize its AI focus, and strategic acquisitions such as Ambry Genetics in February 2025 to boost hereditary testing, Paige in March 2025 to integrate AI-driven digital pathology, and Deep 6 AI in March 2025 to enhance clinical trial recruitment capabilities. The company achieved its first quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA in late 2025.
"Street Stereotype": The "Street stereotype" for Tempus AI has evolved from being seen as a high-burn venture project or a commoditized testing lab with an "AI" marketing wrapper. Recent performance has shifted this narrative, with the company now largely perceived as a legitimate "Data Owner" that can monetize its extensive data library through high-margin pharmaceutical partnerships while also achieving profitability.
Subsidiaries On Linked In*: Ambry Genetics — Wholly owned subsidiary focused on genetic testing, particularly hereditary conditions.; LinkedIn: ambry-genetics
Paige — Acquired in March 2025, specializing in AI-powered computational pathology.; LinkedIn: paige-ai
Deep 6 AI — Acquired in March 2025, focused on AI for clinical trial recruitment.; LinkedIn: deep-6-ai
Customer Sectors & Example Clients: Tempus AI's customer sectors include Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology companies, Health Systems (Hospitals), and Academic Research Institutions. Specific clients mentioned in the transcript and existing text include AstraZeneca AB, Pathos AI, Inc., GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS), Merck, and Gilead. The company is connected to over 5,500 hospitals, more than 8,500 regularly ordering oncologists, and approximately 65% of all U.S. academic medical centers, partnering with 95% of the top 20 pharma oncology companies.
New Customers / Segments They'Re Targeting: Tempus AI is expanding its data and modeling business beyond its primary focus on oncology. They are actively targeting other disease areas, with recent wins and projects in Neurology, specifically mentioning building a multimodal model in Alzheimer's disease. They also entered the Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) space and the hereditary space to be comprehensive across all major assays in Oncology, from assessing patient risk to treatment monitoring.
Supply Chain And Sourcing Geographies: The provided transcript and existing text do not contain specific details about Tempus AI's supply chain or sourcing geographies for its products or components. Their operations primarily involve genetic sequencing laboratories and data platforms.
Sales Geographies And Expansion Plans: Tempus AI primarily operates and sells its services in the United States. The transcript mentions physician ordering in the U.S. and the data and modeling business in the U.S. While there's a mention of Paige operating across North America and Europe, the overall context for Tempus's direct sales and expansion plans in the transcript is focused on the U.S. market. No explicit plans for expanding sales into new international geographies were disclosed in the provided information.
How Key Themes May Help/Hurt: **Help:** * **Diagnostics & Early Detection:** Tempus AI is a core constituent of this theme. Continued advancements in genomics and AI directly drive the development and adoption of their diagnostic tests (e.g., xT, xR, xF liquid biopsy, MRD, hereditary testing). The rising global prevalence of cancer creates sustained demand for their advanced diagnostic solutions. Supportive regulatory environments, such as potential ADLT status for their tests, can enhance market access and accelerate commercialization, leading to higher average selling prices (ASPs). Their AI-powered platform helps physicians make data-driven decisions, which aligns with the theme's focus on personalized medicine. * **AI '25: Data Owners / Healthcare Applications:** Tempus's business model is deeply rooted in being a "Data Owner" in healthcare. Their proprietary multimodal data library and AI platform are central to these themes. The increasing focus on tangible monetization and ROI from AI strongly favors Tempus, as they license their data and models to pharmaceutical companies for drug discovery and development. The transition to agentic AI and its integration into healthcare workflows can unlock operational efficiencies and enhance decision-making, which Tempus's platform aims to provide. * **Genomics '25: Molecular Diagnostics & Clinical Genomics:** Tempus is a strong fit for this theme due to its blend of molecular diagnostics, AI, and clinical data. Their oncology and hereditary testing, combined with their data/applications business built on clinical and molecular datasets, positions them as a clean data-native clinical genomics name. **Hurt:** * **Reimbursement Pressures:** Despite progress, Tempus continues to face reimbursement gaps compared to established peers, particularly for new assays like MRD. Delays in FDA approvals or unfavorable CMS decisions could impact long-term margin targets and the ability to fully ungate sales efforts for high-potential areas like MRD. The "highly constrained" sales effort for MRD due to reimbursement highlights this ongoing challenge. * **Regulatory Hurdles:** Significant regulatory hurdles and lengthy approval processes for novel tests can impede the timely rollout and broad adoption of new diagnostic technologies. While Tempus is actively pursuing FDA approvals, delays could impact their growth trajectory. * **Intensifying Competition:** The diagnostics and early detection space is highly competitive. While Tempus believes its data moat is strong, maintaining differentiation requires constant, expensive reinvestment in technology and talent. Competitors investing heavily in AI and data could put pressure on pricing and commercialization costs.

3 Main Long-Term Bull Details

Proprietary Multimodal Data Moat and AI Advantage: Tempus possesses an extensive and growing library of over 500 petabytes of connected multimodal data (molecular, clinical, imaging, pathology). This unique, real-time dataset, combined with their advanced AI platform and foundation model development (e.g., with AstraZeneca), creates a significant and difficult-to-replicate competitive moat, driving growth in both diagnostics and high-margin data licensing.
Accelerating High-Margin Data Licensing (Insights) Growth: The Insights segment, which licenses Tempus's proprietary data and technology to pharmaceutical companies, is a powerful growth engine with software-like margins. It demonstrated 40.5% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026, with bookings north of $100 million for the third straight quarter and rising Total Contract Value (TCV). This segment's strong performance and increasing TCV validate the monetization of Tempus's data asset and its value in drug discovery and development.
Robust and Expanding Diagnostics Business with ASP Upside: Tempus's core Oncology Diagnostics business continues to perform strongly, with unit growth of about 28% in Q1 2026, driven by solid tumor and liquid biopsies. The Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) volume is performing even better, and the company anticipates significant ASP lift (around $500 incremental ASP) over the next year or two as more assays get FDA-approved, including the expansion of their FDA-approved solid tumor profiling assay and the liquid biopsy assay (xF) currently in front of the FDA.

3 Main Long-Term Bear Details

Persistent Reimbursement Gaps and Uncertainty: Despite efforts, Tempus continues to face a significant reimbursement gap compared to established peers, particularly for new and rapidly growing assays like MRD. The path to securing ADLT status and consistent Medicare pricing for these novel tests is not guaranteed, and delays or unfavorable CMS decisions could impact long-term margin targets and the ability to fully ungate sales efforts for high-potential areas like MRD.
Capital Intensity and Execution Risk of AI Models: Maintaining high-tech laboratories while simultaneously funding massive AI compute power for foundation models and integrating disparate data modalities is technically challenging and capital-intensive. If algorithmic tests or AI-driven insights fail to gain standardized reimbursement or widespread clinical adoption, the heavy R&D spend could significantly drag on profitability and dilute the core diagnostics business.
Competition and Potential Commoditization of Data/AI: While Tempus currently boasts a strong "data moat," the rapid evolution of AI and the potential for large language models to become more commoditized could put pressure on the long-term value of raw data libraries. Established players and new entrants are also investing heavily in AI and data, and maintaining a differentiated edge requires constant, expensive reinvestment in technology and talent, with the risk that competitors could develop similar capabilities.

Competitors And Differentiation: Tempus AI competes against large, well-funded, established diagnostic companies. While specific competitor names are not extensively detailed in the transcript, the existing text mentions incumbents like Natera and Guardant Health in the context of genomics revenue and MRD testing. Tempus differentiates itself through several key aspects: * **Proprietary Multimodal Data Moat:** They possess a vast and growing library of over 500 petabytes of connected multimodal data, including molecular, clinical, imaging, and pathology data. This unique, real-time dataset is difficult to replicate and is used for training AI models and generating insights. * **AI-Powered Platform:** Tempus leverages advanced AI and machine learning to analyze this data, providing comprehensive insights and algorithmic diagnostics (e.g., Homologous Recombination Deficiency algorithm, Tumor Origin algorithm, Immune Profile Score). * **Extensive Distribution Network:** They have a significant distribution network, connected to over 5,500 hospitals and 8,500 oncologists, which helps drive adoption and data collection. * **Comprehensive Portfolio:** Tempus aims to be comprehensive across all major assays in Oncology, from hereditary to therapy selection to MRD, and expanding into other disease areas.
Recent Performance & What The Market'S Focused On: Tempus AI reported a strong first quarter of 2026, with total revenue of $348.1 million, up over 36% year-over-year. Diagnostic revenue was $261.1 million, growing almost 35%, driven by strength in Oncology (28% unit growth), solid tumor, liquid biopsies, and particularly strong MRD volume. The data and applications business performed extraordinarily well, with $87 million in revenue, representing 40.5% year-over-year growth, and bookings north of $100 million for the third straight quarter. The company increased its full-year 2026 guidance to a range of $1.59 billion to $1.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of about $65 million, up from a negative $3 million in Q1. The market is focused on the continued acceleration of the data business, the "ungating" and scaling of MRD volumes as reimbursement improves, the migration of assays to FDA-approved versions to boost ASPs, and the company's ability to achieve its adjusted EBITDA profitability guidance while investing in AI and foundation models.

Revenue Segments And Estimated Mix: Diagnostic revenue — Mix: ~75%; Source: Q1 2026 earnings transcript; Trend: $261.1 million, representing almost 35% growth year-over-year. Driven by strength in Oncology (28% unit growth), solid tumor, liquid biopsies, and MRD. Hereditary slowed down but expected to return to mid-teens growth in H2 2026.
Data and Applications business — Mix: ~25%; Source: Q1 2026 earnings transcript; Trend: $87 million, representing 40.5% year-over-year growth. Particular strength in data licensing and modeling business insights (over 44% growth). Third straight quarter of bookings north of $100 million.
Product Brands: Tempus Platform
Hub
Lens
xT
xR
xF
xH
xE
MRD
nP assay
Insights
Organoids
Trials
Next
Algos
Paige Predict
Immune Profile Score
Homologous Recombination Deficiency algorithm
Tumor Origin algorithm
Tempus ECG-Low EF
Notetaker
Paige Prostate Suite
Paige Breast Suite
Paige GI Suite
Paige PanCancer Suite
Paige Alba
Deep 6 Precision Research Ecosystem
Cohort Builder
Trial Recommender

Bull / Bear Details

Tempus AI is a premier 'Data Owner' in healthcare AI, leveraging its expanding 500+ petabyte multimodal data and proprietary distribution to drive accelerating

Thesis

Tempus AI is a premier 'Data Owner' in healthcare AI, leveraging its expanding 500+ petabyte multimodal data and proprietary distribution to drive accelerating high-margin data licensing and precision diagnostics. As of July 17, 2026, the company has confirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA profitability and sustained 30%+ core business growth, reinforcing its unique position as vital infrastructure for pharmaceutical R&D and clinical decision-making, making the bull case highly compelling.

Bull case

Tempus leverages its proprietary 500+ petabyte multimodal data and extensive distribution to drive accelerating high-margin data licensing. New strategic collaborations with Merck and expanded Gilead relationships, leading to nearly half a dozen $100M+ pharma agreements, validate its unique "Data Owner" position. This reinforces the increasing trend of partners building proprietary AI models on its platform, now expanding into new disease areas like Neurology.
Tempus delivered robust Q1 2026 revenue growth of over 36% and increased its full-year guidance to $1.59B-$1.6B revenue with $65M adjusted EBITDA. This demonstrates sustained operational discipline and a clear path to profitability, with strong visibility into future data revenue from rising Total Contract Value (TCV) and improving Free Cash Flow expected in Q2.
The Diagnostics business grew almost 35% in Q1, driven by strong Oncology unit growth (28%) and robust MRD volumes, despite current reimbursement constraints. Ongoing FDA submissions for xF liquid biopsy and an amendment for tumor-only cases are expected to drive an incremental $500 ASP lift over the next 1-2 years, further enhancing profitability and market position.

Bear case

Tempus continues to face significant reimbursement hurdles, particularly for its high-growth MRD testing, where sales efforts remain "highly constrained" due to unit economics and the need for improved reimbursement. Delays in securing ADLT status or favorable CMS decisions for new assays like xF could impact long-term margin targets and the full commercialization potential of these innovative diagnostics.
The Hereditary testing segment experienced a slowdown in Q1 2026, attributed to lapping periods of extreme growth. While management expects a return to mid-teens growth in the second half of the year, this lumpiness and reliance on the successful uptake of new products like RARE highlight potential revenue volatility and increased dependence on other segments to maintain overall growth targets.
Despite guiding to positive adjusted EBITDA, Q1 Free Cash Flow was elevated due to typical operational timing. While improvements are anticipated in Q2, the inherent capital intensity of maintaining high-tech labs and continuously investing in GPU capacity for advanced AI models, coupled with potential for unexpected cash flow fluctuations, could pressure financial flexibility.

Bull / Bear Case

Bear Case: Valuation remains a key headwind. The near-term revenue surge relies on lumpy data licensing tied to multiyear TCV deals (e.g., the AstraZeneca warrant) and a one-time uplift that may not repeat. Reimbursement for new assays (including MRD, xF/ADLT) remains uncertain, leaving a persistent gap between clinical value and realized revenue. MRD volumes are highly sensitive to payer coverage and sales-force deployment, which is only partially ungated. Competitive threats from large AI players and traditional diagnostic peers could compress pricing and erode Tempus's moat. Opex for global AI compute and platform integration could limit margin expansion, leaving EV/Revenue multiple under pressure if growth slows or profitability stalls. Additionally, data license revenue is inherently cyclical and can disappoint when large bookings don't convert promptly.
Bull Case: Tempus AI sits at an inflection point where accelerating Diagnostics growth (on Oncology + MRD and Hereditary) pairs with a fast-rising Data/Insights business, supported by a proprietary multimodal data moat. 2025 results showed core revenue up about 33% with the Ambry acquisition, and Insights licensing up 69% year over year (126% net revenue retention), with more than $1.1 billion of total contract value. The company guides to roughly $1.59 billion of revenue and about $65 million of positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026, underscoring a shift toward profitability. A foundation-model program with AstraZeneca and Pathos could unlock additional data-driven insights, while Paige Predict expands diagnostics where sequencing fails. The installed base—5,500 hospitals and 8,500 oncologists—supports scalable, high-margin licensing, with a path to accelerating 25%+ growth over the next three years.
More Compelling & Why: Bear. Valuation appears stretched relative to peers on forward revenue. Anchor: EV/Revenue, which is likely in the high single-digit to low double-digit range vs peers near mid-single digits. The strongest argument is the data licensing revenue is lumpier than expected and reimbursement/ADLT timing remains uncertain, risking multiple compression. To flip the view, Tempus would need sustained >25%+ revenue growth with EBITDA margins improving meaningfully and a lower EV/Revenue multiple (4-5x) or clear, recurring FCF >6%.

Key Factors5 rows

Key Factor	Why It Matters	What To Watch	What It Signals	Where/How To Track	Free Alt Data	Paid Alt Data
Hereditary Business Reacceleration to Mid-Teens Growth	The hereditary testing segment experienced a slowdown but is expected to return to mid-teens growth in the second half of 2026, driven by the RARE product. This reacceleration is important for overall diagnostics segment health.	Hereditary business unit growth rates in Q2, Q3, and Q4 2026. Management commentary on the performance and adoption of the RARE product.	Bullish: Hereditary unit growth returns to mid-teens or higher in H2 2026; Strong adoption and positive commentary on the RARE product. Bearish: Hereditary unit growth remains below mid-teens in H2 2026; Delays or underperformance of the RARE product.	Company earnings calls, press releases, SEC filings (10-Q, 10-K).	Industry reports on genetic testing market trends, particularly for hereditary and rare diseases.
2026 Adjusted EBITDA Achievement & Cash Flow Progression	Achieving the guided $65 million positive adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is a critical financial milestone, demonstrating operational discipline and a shift towards sustainable profitability, which de-risks the investment thesis.	Quarterly adjusted EBITDA figures throughout 2026. Management commentary on cost management, operating leverage, and Free Cash Flow improvements, especially in Q2.	Bullish: Quarterly adjusted EBITDA consistently improves and remains on track to meet or exceed the $65 million full-year 2026 guidance; Significant improvement in Q2 Free Cash Flow. Bearish: Quarterly adjusted EBITDA turns negative unexpectedly or shows significant deviation from the $65 million full-year guidance; Free Cash Flow does not improve as anticipated in Q2.	Company earnings calls, press releases, SEC filings (10-Q, 10-K).
FDA Approvals for Diagnostic Assays & ASP Uplift	FDA approvals for assays like xF and amendments for existing tests (xT/xR tumor-only) are crucial for accelerating ADLT migration, improving reimbursement, and driving a significant increase in average selling prices (ASPs).	FDA decisions on the xF liquid biopsy submission. FDA decision on the amendment for tumor-only cases for the existing FDA-approved assay. Updates on the expected $500 incremental ASP lift over the next 1-2 years.	Bullish: FDA approval for xF or the tumor-only amendment received; Management confirms progress towards the $500 ASP uplift. Bearish: Delays or rejection of FDA submissions; Lower-than-expected ASP increases or delays in realization.	Company press releases, SEC filings, FDA announcements, earnings calls.	FDA 510(k) clearances diagnostics, PMA approvals oncology (via FDA website).
MRD (Minimal Residual Disease) Volume Growth & Reimbursement Progress	MRD testing offers substantial future growth, but its full market potential is currently limited by reimbursement. Progress in securing favorable reimbursement will unlock significant volume and revenue, validating Tempus's long-term diagnostic strategy.	Quarterly MRD unit growth rates. Management commentary on specific timelines or approvals for broad MRD reimbursement (e.g., from Medicare or private payers).	Bullish: Management announces specific timelines or significant progress on broad MRD reimbursement, or an unblocking of the sales force. Bearish: Continued delays or setbacks in reimbursement discussions, or no significant acceleration in sales force expansion.	Company earnings calls, press releases, SEC filings (10-Q, 10-K), investor presentations.	Industry news on MolDx updates, CMS announcements regarding MRD test coverage.	Thinknum: Sales force headcount growth for MRD-focused roles.
Insights Segment Total Contract Value (TCV) & New Strategic Collaborations	The high-margin Insights business, driven by data licensing and AI models, is central to Tempus's 'Data Owner' thesis. Strong TCV and new large pharma deals validate its competitive moat and future revenue visibility.	Total Contract Value (TCV) backlog updates. Announcements of new strategic collaborations (e.g., Merck, Gilead-magnitude deals). Data and Applications revenue growth in subsequent quarters.	Bullish: TCV continues to rise, exceeding $1.1 billion; New $100M+ strategic collaborations announced; Data and Applications revenue growth meets or exceeds 40.5%. Bearish: TCV growth slows or declines; No new significant strategic collaborations announced; Data and Applications revenue growth misses projections.	Company earnings calls, press releases, SEC filings (10-Q, 10-K), investor presentations.	Industry news on pharma partnerships in AI/data.	PitchBook: Strategic investments in AI/data platforms by large pharma.

Key Reported Metrics, Reratings Triggers & Results3 rows

This metric indicates clinical adoption of NGS testing, which simultaneously generates proprietary molecular data for the Insights library and powers algorithmi

Metric	Why It Matters	Last Period
Data & Services Revenue Growth (Insights)	This segment is central to the 'Data Owner' thesis, representing high-margin licensing of Tempus's multimodal library to pharma. It validates the monetization of proprietary data through AI in drug discovery and development.	69%
Diagnostics Oncology Unit Growth	This metric indicates clinical adoption of NGS testing, which simultaneously generates proprietary molecular data for the Insights library and powers algorithmic diagnostic tools, fueling Tempus's AI flywheel.	29%
Total Revenue	As a high-growth AI healthcare leader, total revenue growth confirms market share gains in NGS and clinical data markets. Sustained growth is essential to support Tempus's premium valuation and prove the scalability of its integrated diagnostics and data-driven business model.	33%

Key Questions

Will Tempus AI's Diagnostics segment achieve the anticipated reacceleration of Hereditary growth to mid-teens in H2 2026 and demonstrate concrete progress in un

Will Tempus AI's Diagnostics segment achieve the anticipated reacceleration of Hereditary growth to mid-teens in H2 2026 and demonstrate concrete progress in unconstraining its MRD sales force through improved reimbursement, contributing to the projected $500 incremental ASP lift from FDA approvals (including the imminent tumor-only amendment and xF submission)?

Question 2: Can Tempus AI sustain the accelerated growth and high visibility in its Data and Applications business, evidenced by continued rising Total Contract Value (TCV) and new large strategic collaborations (like Merck and expanded Gilead deals), and further expand its 'Data Owner' moat by driving adoption of proprietary model building with pharma partners and successfully entering new disease areas like Neurology?
Question 3: Following a negative Q1 adjusted EBITDA and elevated Free Cash Flow, will Tempus AI demonstrate significant Free Cash Flow improvement in Q2 2026 and maintain a clear trajectory to achieve its full-year $65 million positive adjusted EBITDA guidance through sustained operating leverage and strong performance in its high-margin data business in the back half of the year?

Earnings Transcript Summary3 rows

2026-05-05 · 2026Q1 Earnings Call

3 Things Management Is Most Focused On	Call Takeaway & Tone	Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment	3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)	Revenue Segments
1. Sustaining strong revenue growth and achieving profitability: Management highlighted total revenue growth of over 36% and increased full-year guidance to a range of $1.59 billion to $1.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of about $65 million, emphasizing the business is performing "at or above plan" and on track for a "great year." 2. Expanding and deepening data and AI collaborations with pharmaceutical companies: This was evidenced by new large strategic collaborations with Merck and an expanded relationship with Gilead, along with strong bookings and the trend of pharma companies building proprietary models leveraging Tempus's extensive de-identified data. 3. Advancing diagnostic assays through FDA approvals and improving average selling prices (ASPs): Management discussed the xF FDA submission and an amendment for tumor-only cases to accelerate migration to ADLT, anticipating an incremental ASP lift of approximately $500 over the next one to two years as more assays achieve FDA approval.	The overall takeaway of the call was highly positive and confident. Tempus AI reported a strong Q1 2026, with total revenue up over 36% and the Data and Applications business showing robust 40.5% growth. Management expressed strong confidence in achieving its increased full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, driven by accelerating growth in both diagnostics and data, deepening strategic partnerships with pharma, and the anticipated positive impact of FDA approvals on ASPs. The tone conveyed optimism about the company's unique position, proprietary data, and AI platform, with a clear focus on sustained long-term growth and profitability.	In Q4 2025, Oncology unit growth was 29% year-over-year, indicating a slight deceleration in Q1 2026. Hereditary unit growth was 23% year-over-year in Q4 2025, showing a deceleration in Q1 2026. Data licensing business (Insights) was up 69% year-over-year in Q4 2025 (including a one-time warrant impact), with Q1 2026's 40.5% growth slightly exceeding the prior projection of roughly 40%.	1. Analyst Question: How discussions with large Pharma customers are trending, particularly regarding AI interest and the longevity/extension potential of de-identified data agreements. Mgmt Response: Eric Lefkofsky stated that core big data relationships are very strong, with a history of renewing agreements at or above historical levels. He highlighted new large strategic collaborations (Merck) and expanded relationships (Gilead), noting the increasing trend of customers building models with Tempus's data. 2. Analyst Question: Visibility and confidence in hitting the implied $410 million data revenue guidance, especially with the new Merck and Gilead deals, and potential levers for upside. Mgmt Response: Jim Rogers expressed high visibility, noting that the $350 million of TCV earmarked for 2026, combined with the strong pipeline including Merck and Gilead, provides significant confidence. He also mentioned that Total Contract Value (TCV) increased in Q1, indicating a growing backlog for future revenue. 3. Analyst Question: The progression of Free Cash Flow, given it was down in Q1, and the durability of billing for xT, xR, and xF assays once FDA-approved. Mgmt Response: Jim Rogers explained that Q1 Free Cash Flow was elevated due to typical timing of payables and bonus payouts, anticipating significant improvement in Q2 as payables normalize and large Insights contracts transition to quarterly payments. Eric Lefkofsky added that FDA approvals would not change how tests are ordered or billed individually but are expected to lead to an incremental ASP lift of about $500 over the next year or two.	Total Revenue was $348.1 million, up a little over 36% year-over-year. Diagnostic revenue was $261.1 million, representing almost 35% growth, with Oncology unit growth at about 28%. Hereditary business slowed down. Data and applications business revenue was $87 million, representing 40.5% year-over-year growth, with data licensing and modeling business insights growing over 44%.

2026-02-24 · 2025Q4 Earnings Call

3 Things Management Is Most Focused On	Call Takeaway & Tone	Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment	3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)	Revenue Segments
1. Accelerating Growth and Market Share: Management highlighted that both Diagnostics and Data businesses are growing rapidly and performing above expectations, with Oncology unit growth accelerating and the Data business growing even faster. They also emphasized their platform advantage in driving growth across all assay types. 2. Leveraging AI and Proprietary Data: Eric Lefkofsky stressed the unique position of Tempus with its proprietary data (over 450 petabytes of connected multimodal data) and distribution network (5,500+ hospitals, 8,500+ oncologists) as a key differentiator against competitors in the AI space. The company is doubling down on foundation model efforts, expecting them to be catalytic for both diagnostic and data businesses. 3. Achieving Profitability and Strong Financial Health: The company guided to approximately $65 million of positive adjusted EBITDA for 2026 and noted its balance sheet is in great shape, indicating a focus on sustainable financial performance.	The overall takeaway of the call is that Tempus AI had an exceptional 2025, with both its Diagnostics and Data businesses growing rapidly and exceeding expectations, and is well-positioned for a strong 2026. Management expressed high confidence in the company's AI advantages, proprietary data moat, and ability to achieve sustainable profitability. The tone was highly positive and optimistic, emphasizing accelerating growth, strategic investments in AI, and strong financial health.	For Q3 2025, Oncology unit growth was 27% year-over-year, indicating an acceleration in Q4 2025. Hereditary unit growth was 37% year-over-year in Q3 2025, showing a deceleration in Q4 2025. Data Licensing/Insights grew 38% year-over-year in Q3 2025, which accelerated significantly to 69% in Q4 2025 due to a one-time impact.	1. AI's value distribution and Tempus's data protection: Analysts questioned how Tempus's position is protected on the data side given traditional AI players entering healthcare. Management responded that Tempus is uniquely positioned with both proprietary data (450+ petabytes of connected multimodal data) and proprietary distribution (connected to 5,500+ hospitals and 8,500+ oncologists), making it difficult to replicate. 2. MRD volumes and the sales force strategy: Analysts inquired about the significant potential for MRD volumes (20x higher) if the sales force was fully engaged. Management clarified that the 20x higher figure was a hypothetical highlighting the strength of their MRD offering, which is currently highly constrained due to reimbursement considerations. They intend to ungate this effort over time as reimbursement is established. 3. Data and Services revenue guide and visibility for 2026: Analysts asked about the embedded data and services revenue in the 2026 guide and visibility into in-year bookings. Management stated that strong bookings have provided greater visibility into 2026 revenue than ever before, with a high percentage of revenue already committed. They also noted that the vast majority of this segment is data licensing.	Total core business revenue (including Ambry acquisition) was up over 33% year-over-year. In Diagnostics, Oncology unit growth was 29% year-over-year, and Hereditary unit growth was 23% year-over-year. The Data licensing business (Insights) was up 69% year-over-year, factoring in the one-time impact of the AstraZeneca warrant, with a projection of roughly 40% growth for Q1 2026.

2025-11-04 · 2025Q3 Earnings Call

3 Things Management Is Most Focused On	Call Takeaway & Tone	Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment	3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)	Revenue Segments
1. Profitability Milestone: Achieving positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time in company history ($4M excluding the Paige acquisition). 2. Data Licensing Scale: Executing high-value contracts, highlighted by $150M in new total contract value (TCV) bookings this quarter. 3. Durable Growth: Maintaining a consistent 25% growth trajectory for the next three years by optimizing the sales force and expanding the MRD (Minimal Residual Disease) and liquid biopsy portfolio.	Takeaway: Tempus has reached a critical inflection point, proving it can achieve profitability (Adjusted EBITDA positive) while simultaneously accelerating year-over-year growth in its core segments. The massive $150M in data bookings reinforces their 'Data Owner' moat in the AI space. Tone: Highly confident, disciplined, and focused on long-term scale over short-term volatility.	Q2 2025 Y/Y Growth: Genomics (Overall): 26%; Data Licensing/Insights: 31%. (Growth accelerated in both major segments in Q3).	1. Drivers of Genomics Volume: Analysts asked if growth was due to market shifts or internal execution. Mgmt attributed it to a more efficient, better-trained sales force and the integration of their technology into physician workflows. 2. MRD and Reimbursement: Analysts questioned the go-to-market speed for MRD testing. Mgmt responded they will 'dial up' volume as reimbursement is secured to ensure sustainable, long-term growth rather than artificial short-term spikes. 3. Data Booking Disclosures: Analysts asked about the $150M in new bookings and backlog. Mgmt explained that while they usually report TCV annually, these specific deals were significant enough to highlight the widening gap between Tempus and its competitors in data licensing.	Genomics (Overall): 33% y/y growth (Oncology: 27%, Hereditary: 37%); Data Licensing/Insights: 38% y/y growth.

Transcript Tidbits3 rows

2026-05-05

About Expanding Eligible Market	About Competition	About The Broader Industry	Where Things Are Headed	Updates On Theme	Broader Themes Emerging	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Hiring
Tempus AI reported Diagnostic revenue of $261.1 million, representing almost 35% growth, with Oncology business unit growth of about 28%, driven by strong performance in solid tumor and liquid biopsies, and even better performance in MRD volume. The data and applications business saw $87 million in revenue, a 40.5% year-over-year growth, with data licensing and modeling business insights growing over 44%. The company had its third straight quarter of bookings north of $100 million. Tempus added Merck as a very large strategic collaboration and expanded its relationship with Gilead, now having almost half a dozen pharma clients with $100 million-plus agreements. They are increasingly building proprietary models with partners, including foundation models with AstraZeneca, leveraging their database of over 500 petabytes. While the vast majority of data licensing is currently in Oncology, recent multi-million dollar wins in Neurology, such as a multimodal model in Alzheimer's disease, indicate expansion into other disease areas. Tempus expects its data and modeling business in the U.S. to reach multi-billion dollars, with significant opportunities internationally. The company has an xF FDA submission and is making an amendment to its FDA-approved assay to cover tumor-only cases, which will accelerate migration to the ADLT version. ASPs are expected to rise by about $500 over the next 1-2 years as more assays receive FDA approval. Management believes the therapy selection market is still in its early to middle stages, with significant unit volume growth potential for the industry over the next 3 to 5 years. MRD growth is robust, but its sales force is currently constrained due to reimbursement, with plans to roll it out more aggressively as reimbursement improves. The hereditary business is expected to return to mid-teens growth in the second half of the year, particularly as the RARE product takes hold. Algorithms like Homologous Recombination Deficiency, Tumor Origin, and Immune Profile Score are driving ordering behavior by providing physicians with advanced tools.	Tempus AI's data business and modeling business has reached a scale and durability that management believes few anticipated, with almost half a dozen pharma clients signing $100 million-plus agreements, a feat considered impressive even with one or two clients. The company attributes its faster growth in therapy selection compared to most others to its comprehensive technology platform. Management stated that Companion Diagnostics (CDx) have had no impact on physician ordering in the U.S. and will not affect the growth of companies in external sequencing. Tempus believes that if it were to fully unconstrain its MRD sales efforts, it would become a 'very, very formidable MRD player in the United States'.	The broader industry is seeing evolving interest in AI, with de-identified data holding a high position in the hierarchy of needs for large pharmaceutical customers. There is an increasing trend of companies building proprietary models to enhance their internal R&D programs. Physicians are overworked and seeking platforms that can help them make real-time data-driven decisions, analyze data, and arrive at correct answers efficiently. Despite advancements, a significant volume of physicians are still not ordering comprehensive genomic profiling for cancer patients. The Solid-Tumor Profiling and Liquid Biopsy markets are considered healthy, with the Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) market being even healthier due to its relative newness.	Tempus AI increased its guidance for the year to a revenue range of $1.59 billion to $1.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of about $65 million. The company expects its Hereditary business to return to mid-teens growth in the second half of the year. Management anticipates that its core big data relationships will continue to renew at or above historical levels and expects to add more large new strategic clients. The trend of pharmaceutical companies building proprietary models leveraging Tempus's data is projected to continue its upward trajectory. Free Cash Flow is expected to see significant improvement in Q2, followed by continued improvements as adjusted EBITDA increases. Over time, Tempus anticipates all of its main assays (xT, xR, xF) will be FDA-approved, which is expected to drive a rise in ASPs by approximately $500 over the next 1-2 years. The company projects 25% top-line growth over the next three years. EBITDA is expected to progress throughout the year, with the latter half being stronger for the data business, leading to expanded margins. Tempus plans to roll out its MRD sales force more aggressively as reimbursement improves, aiming to become a significant player in the MRD space. The back half of the year is expected to be much better for the hereditary business as the RARE product gains traction.	Diagnostics		We had a great quarter. Revenue was $348.1 million, up a little over 36% year-over-year. Our data business, data and applications business did extraordinarily well, $87 million of revenue, representing 40.5% year-over-year growth. We had our third straight quarter of bookings north of $100 million. The business is doing extremely well. We're on track for a great year, and as a result, increased our guidance. All of our core big data relationships are very strong. We feel great about that trend continuing. We now have almost half a dozen folks at that level where people are signing these very large strategic agreements with more coming. The Insights business is really performing incredibly well at this stage. We've never been at this point in the year with this level of visibility into the overall number. Our TCV actually increased in the first quarter, which is incredibly impressive. We can see the data business -- especially the data and modeling business in the U.S., getting to multi-billion dollars. Lots of legroom. We feel great about our cash position. We don't need more cash. We're going to generate cash, we're going to be EBITDA positive. Nothing about the current trend is anything but significantly positive. The differential in growth rates, the fact that we're growing faster than others or and most others in therapy selection, is predominantly related to the technology platform we built, which is comprehensive and allows physicians to do their job well. We see no sign of that slowing down. It does feel like it's a healthy space in terms of Solid-Tumor Profiling, Liquid Biopsy and then even healthier on the MRD side. The growth is really robust. If we really put a bunch of wood behind this we would be a very, very formidable MRD player in the United States. We expect 25% growth not just in 1 year, but over 3 years. And at our scale, that's not a small number.	Hereditary slowed down a bit, which was to be expected given that we're lapping some extreme growth rates from a year ago. We don't expect that to have any impact on pricing or ASPs in 2026. CDx have been part of therapy selection for years. There are many of them. They've had no impact on physician ordering in the U.S. It's hard to move the units. We had a slower start to the first half of this year. The unit economics until reimbursement is better... it's very hard to unshackle all that volume because we would just be generating massive loss for them. We have to meter it, which we're doing, which we're doing in close coordination with them. Jim and I have never -- we've been at this for a long time. We've never had a quarter where everything goes our way. Something always doesn't go our way.

2026-02-24

About Expanding Eligible Market	About Competition	About The Broader Industry	Where Things Are Headed	Updates On Theme	Broader Themes Emerging	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Hiring
Tempus's MRD growth rate was 56% quarter-over-quarter, described as extraordinary. Hereditary unit growth was 23%. The company launched Paige Predict, which can generate insights from digitized pathology slides even when sequencing fails, making tests 'a little better than somebody else'. ASPs are expected to reach over $2,200 in the coming years, primarily driven by the migration of xT CDx to the FDA-approved version by the end of 2026. The xF liquid biopsy has been submitted to the FDA, with contributions expected in 2027. There is also anticipated upside from commercial payers. Foundation model efforts are expected to accelerate insights for the diagnostic business. The company has a whole genome heme offering going live this year. MRD volumes were around 4,700 tests in Q4, with 56% quarter-over-quarter growth, despite a 'highly constrained sales effort' which, if unblocked, 'could be 20x higher'. The Ambry acquisition broadened the comprehensive nature of their testing, especially in hereditary profiling.	Tempus believes it is 'uniquely positioned' due to its proprietary data and distribution at scale, possessing over 450 petabytes of connected multimodal data. The CEO stated that replicating their data business would be 'an enormous lift' that they have been on for 10 years, and 'other people have been unable to replicate it'. The company feels it is 'pulling further and further away from the competition' in the data licensing space. Their core technology advantage is seen as driving the growth across all five of their assays (xT, xR, xF, xH, xE). In solid tumor, Tempus is growing 'faster than others'. They also noted that they didn't have to 'overly push on the accelerator for tumor naive' products, implying a strong position in tumor-informed offerings.	The markets are 'a bit anxious around AI and how value is getting distributed within that ecosystem', with 'traditional AI players push into the healthcare sphere'. The most interesting AI business models, particularly for large language or multimodal models, are seen as centering around access to proprietary data for training and proprietary distribution for insights. The market for sequencing is growing, with sequencing becoming 'more prevalent amongst our ordering physicians and ultimately patients'. There is a significant trend of provider partners wanting to contribute de-identified data to platforms like Tempus's to accelerate research and drug discovery, driven by the ongoing challenge of cancer mortality and the need to 'stop the waste'. The 'goalposts keep moving' for tumor-naive products, requiring continuous improvement.	Tempus guided to $1.59 billion in revenue, in line with its 25% long-term growth expectations, and approximately $65 million of positive adjusted EBITDA, positioning them for a 'phenomenal 2026'. The licensing business is projected to grow roughly 40% this quarter, with net revenue retention at 126%. The foundation model for AstraZeneca hit its Q1 benchmarks, and Tempus has procured a second, larger cluster of GB200s for additional internal models across various data types. These models are expected to be 'catalytic' for both diagnostics and data businesses. Oncology volume growth is not expected to see a 'massive slowdown', while Hereditary growth is anticipated to moderate to 'high teens longer-term growth rate' with some lumpiness in 2026. The company plans to 'ungate' its MRD sales effort eventually, expecting to become a 'very large MRD supplier'. Core Oncology Diagnostic and data businesses are projected to grow '30-plus percent'. A whole genome heme offering will go live this year. Investment priorities remain focused on bringing technology and AI to diagnostics to ensure data-driven decisions.	Data	AI integration and value distribution in specialized industries, Data Moats and Proprietary Distribution in the Age of AI, Multimodal AI and Foundation Models in Healthcare.	2025 was an exceptional year for Tempus. Our Diagnostic business is accelerating and performing above expectation. Our data business is growing even faster. Net revenue retention was 126%, which is super strong. We're poised for a phenomenal 2026. Tempus is uniquely positioned in that. We have both of those at scale. The data business is just kind of having a moment and the growth is actually accelerating. We're incredibly long on the value that these models are going to deliver. Our unit growth in Oncology is really strong and showing no signs of slowing down. We just have got crazy amounts of demand for our data products.	Markets are a bit anxious around AI and how value is getting distributed. All next-generation sequencing has some amount of error. Some percentage of the time... you have results that can't be returned to a physician. Hereditary growth rates in 2026... might be a little bit lower in Q1. It's a function of reimbursement. The goalposts keep moving. We realized that we just weren't getting the performance off the first version of our assay. It's tough to continue growing at the same rate.	In terms of the sales force, we've made no big moves to reorg the sales force. We did that, obviously, early '25, and we announced the impact of that. And so the good news is we're long lapping that.

2025-11-04

About Expanding Eligible Market	About Competition	About The Broader Industry	Where Things Are Headed	Updates On Theme	Broader Themes Emerging	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Hiring
Tempus is expanding its reach through MRD reimbursement, which is currently on track, and the planned regulatory filing of its liquid biopsy xF later in 2025. The company raised its Hereditary growth expectations to the low to mid-20s. Additionally, the acquisition of Paige AI allows Tempus to expand into digital pathology, enabling them to return results even when traditional NGS sequencing fails or lacks sufficient tissue material. The company is also scaling its 'rare' business, aiming to become a major player in that niche over the next 12-18 months.	Tempus competes against large, well-funded, established diagnostic companies, but claims a significant advantage through its unique data asset and proprietary software. CEO Eric Lefkofsky noted that unlike some competitors who may be seeing 'one-time benefits' from shifting between solid and liquid testing, Tempus's growth is driven by sales force efficiency and a comprehensive portfolio. The company believes it is 'pulling further and further apart' from peers in the data licensing space due to the scale and integration of its clinical and molecular datasets.	The industry is seeing a general tailwind as more biomarkers are identified, leading to increased NGS testing volumes. The broader Hereditary cancer market is estimated to be growing in the low double digits. Lefkofsky highlighted a structural necessity for AI in the U.S. healthcare system, noting that with $5.7 trillion in annual spending growing at 7.5%, the only solution to waste and error is the deployment of predictive and preventative 'intelligence' or AI.	Tempus has issued a long-term guide of 25% growth for the next three years. The company achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time in Q3 2025 and expects to be slightly positive for the full year. Its foundation model, developed with AstraZeneca and Pathos, is finishing the pretraining phase, with first versions expected in Q1 2026. Throughout 2026, the company plans to migrate the majority of its testing volume to FDA-approved or ADLT versions to close the reimbursement gap with peers.	Data	Multimodal data integration (combining molecular, pathology, and imaging data) is emerging as the next frontier for precision medicine. There is also a focus on the 'NVIDIA moment' for healthcare AI—the potential for rapid, high-margin revenue scaling once algorithmic diagnostic tests (dry lab) achieve standardized reimbursement paths similar to traditional wet lab tests.	“Q3 was a great quarter all around.”; “Positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time this quarter.”; “Our data product is just really differentiated.”; “We're just pulling further and further apart from anybody else we know of in the data space.”; “We expect to grow at about 25% for the next 3 years.”	“Hereditary growth will moderate a bit.”; “Any time you make changes to sales forces... you kind of cause havoc.”; “Total reimbursement on average is... well below parity with our peers.”; “It isn't well reimbursed, if at all [referring to algorithmic tests].”	The company highlighted its technical depth, mentioning it has '400 PhDs' and a significant number of software engineers on staff. It also noted recent significant changes and reorganization of its sales force to better align with the MRD portfolio and improve efficiency.

NotesTable

Date	Comment	Comment Type	Comment Sentiment	Link	Price Reaction
2026-02-24	Tempus AI reported strong Q4 2025 results, with core revenue up 33% and data licensing accelerating, projecting 40% growth for Q1 2026. They guided for $1.59 billion revenue and $65 million adjusted EBITDA in 2026, emphasizing significant MRD potential and AI advancements. Despite beating expectations, the stock dropped 7.32% (underperforming SPY), indicating persistent market concerns over reimbursement, data licensing volatility, or execution risks.	Other	Bearish		-7.32% (vs SPY: -8.16%)

Upcoming Events6 rows

Catalyst ID	Estimated Timing	Estimated Date Start	Estimated Date End	Catalyst	Why It Matters	Ticker Or Theme Specific	Transcript Date	Source Type
TEM_8da9f10b	middle of this year	2026-07-01	2026-08-31	Completion of a multi-million dollar multimodal model in Alzheimer's disease.	This represents a significant win in expanding Tempus's data business into new disease areas beyond oncology, demonstrating the broader applicability and monetization potential of their data platform.	Ticker	2026-05-05	earnings_transcript
TEM_30f7dd10	by the end of 2026 to be exiting with the vast majority of volume on that FDA-approved version	2026-01-01	2026-12-31	Completion of the migration of Tempus's xT CDx testing volume to the FDA-approved version.	This migration is the biggest driver of the expected $500+ ASP upside, directly impacting gross margins and revenue per test. Bullish if completed as planned, bearish if delayed.	Ticker	2026-02-24	earnings_transcript
TEM_b3d020d3	as we get into '27, we'll start to contribute	2026-10-01	2027-03-31	CMS granting of Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test (ADLT) status for Tempus's xF liquid biopsy assay.	ADLT status is crucial for securing favorable and consistent reimbursement, leading to a significant ASP lift and closing the reimbursement gap with competitors. Bullish if granted, bearish if delayed or denied.	Ticker	2026-02-24	earnings_transcript
TEM_cfd0d81c	unlikely to have much of a '26 impact from ASP, but as we get into '27, we'll start to contribute	2026-01-01	2026-12-31	FDA approval of Tempus's xF liquid biopsy assay, which has been submitted to the FDA.	FDA approval is a prerequisite for ADLT status and broader reimbursement, expected to significantly increase ASPs and contribute to revenue starting in 2027. Bullish if approved, bearish if rejected or delayed.	Ticker	2026-02-24	earnings_transcript
TEM_0bbe29e3	at some point, we'll have a really nice assay market	2026-07-01	2027-12-31	Launch of Tempus's second-generation tumor-naive MRD assay.	This new assay aims to offer improved performance and compete more effectively in subtypes where tissue is sparse, potentially expanding market reach and driving volume. Bullish if launched with strong performance, bearish if further delays or poor performance.	Ticker	2026-02-24	earnings_transcript
TEM_a4910b39	goes live this year	2026-01-01	2026-12-31	Launch of Tempus's whole genome heme offering.	This expands Tempus's diagnostic portfolio, potentially attracting new customers and increasing revenue from the heme oncology market. Bullish if launched successfully and gains traction.	Ticker	2026-02-24	earnings_transcript