Tempus AI, Inc.
Tempus AI, Inc. is a healthcare technology company leveraging genetic testing and AI for personalized patient care. Its Diagnostics segment (approx. 75% revenue
Tempus AI, Inc. is a healthcare technology company leveraging genetic testing and AI for personalized patient care. Its Diagnostics segment (approx. 75% revenue) provides oncology and hereditary tests, while the Data and Applications segment (approx. 25% revenue) licenses de-identified medical insights. Tempus serves pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, and researchers, recently announcing the acquisition of Personalis to boost its minimal residual disease testing capabilities.
Not in registry
Source Direct materials for Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) tests, including whole genome, exome, and transcriptome sequencing. Tempus uses Illumina NGS instruments, which require proprietary reagents and kits.
Confidence: high
Not in registry
Source Essential for Tempus's AI and data platform, including foundation models and the Lens application. The company explicitly mentions 'connecting and provisioning GPUs' and 'cloud' as significant investments.
Confidence: high
Not in registryaccess=api
Source Highly skilled labor is required for performing complex genetic tests, operating sequencing instruments, and interpreting results in Tempus's diagnostics business.
Confidence: high
Not in registry
Source Includes items like pipettes, tips, tubes, gloves, and other general supplies necessary for daily lab operations.
Confidence: medium
Not in registry
Source Costs associated with the transportation of patient samples to Tempus's laboratories and the delivery of test results.
Confidence: medium
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Metric/field Total Health Expenditures
Cadence monthly
Why it matters Overall healthcare spending indicates the market size and health for diagnostic services, directly impacting the addressable market for Tempus's diagnostic and data businesses.
Signal to watch Increasing expenditures suggest a growing market.
Confidence: low
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Metric/field Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing, All Employees
Cadence monthly
Why it matters Growth in pharmaceutical employment can indicate increased R&D and commercial activity, which drives demand for Tempus's data licensing and modeling services from pharma clients.
Signal to watch Increasing employment suggests a healthy and expanding pharma R&D landscape.
Confidence: low
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Metric/field Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS)
Cadence monthly
Why it matters Influences Tempus's cost of capital for debt financing (e.g., convertible notes) and the broader investment environment for growth companies.
Signal to watch Stable or declining rates are generally favorable for growth companies.
Confidence: high
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Metric/field Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Cadence monthly
Why it matters Reflects the overall economic health, which can influence healthcare spending, investment in new technologies, and the financial stability of Tempus's customers.
Signal to watch Sustained GDP growth indicates a strong economic environment.
Confidence: high
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Metric/field Producer Price Index by Industry: Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing (PCU3254--3254-)
Cadence monthly
Why it matters Tracks pricing power and cost trends within the pharmaceutical industry, relevant for Tempus's pharma clients and their R&D budgets.
Signal to watch Stable or increasing prices suggest a healthy industry environment for Tempus's data clients.
Confidence: high
Not in registry
Metric/field Study Status (e.g., 'Completed', 'Terminated', 'Active, not recruiting')
Cadence weekly
Why it matters Tracks the progress and outcomes of clinical trials related to Tempus's diagnostic areas (MRD, liquid biopsy) and those involving its pharma partners, indicating market development and potential for new indications.
Signal to watch Increase in completed trials or positive outcomes for relevant indications/technologies.
Confidence: high
Not in registry
Metric/field Approval/Clearance Date for 'xT CDx', 'xF liquid biopsy', 'Personalis NeXT Personal'
Cadence event_driven
Why it matters FDA approvals directly impact Tempus's ability to commercialize its diagnostic assays (like xF liquid biopsy) and achieve higher ASPs, as discussed in the earnings call.
Signal to watch Receipt of FDA approval for xF liquid biopsy or new indications for xT CDx/Personalis NeXT Personal.
Confidence: high
Not in registry
Metric/field 8-K filings for 'TEM' (Tempus AI) and 'PSNL' (Personalis)
Cadence event_driven
Why it matters Provides real-time updates on significant corporate events, such as new strategic collaborations, acquisitions (like Personalis closing), debt offerings, or material business changes.
Signal to watch Announcements of new large pharma deals, progress/completion of the Personalis acquisition, or other strategic developments.
Confidence: high
Not in registry
Metric/field Search term volume for 'Tempus AI', 'MRD testing', 'liquid biopsy cancer'
Cadence weekly
Why it matters Indicates public and physician interest and awareness in Tempus and key diagnostic technologies, signaling potential market adoption and competitive landscape shifts.
Signal to watch Sustained or increasing search interest for Tempus AI and its core diagnostic areas.
Confidence: medium
Not in registryaccess=api
Metric/field Award Amount for contracts with 'Tempus AI' or related NAICS codes (e.g., 541715 for Research and Development in Biotechnology)
Cadence daily
Why it matters Tracks government funding or partnerships related to Tempus's technology or the broader AI/genomics in healthcare space, indicating potential new revenue streams or validation.
Signal to watch New or increasing federal contract awards to Tempus or its subsidiaries.
Confidence: medium
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Metric/field CPT code utilization for molecular diagnostic tests (e.g., specific codes for liquid biopsy, MRD, CGP) for Tempus and competitors
Cadence monthly
Why it matters Provides granular, independent data on actual test utilization, market share, and reimbursement trends for Tempus's diagnostic products, including MRD, which is currently constrained by reimbursement.
Signal to watch Increasing utilization of relevant CPT codes for Tempus's tests, indicating growing adoption and improved reimbursement.
Confidence: high
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Metric/field Number of job postings for 'Sales Representative - MRD', 'AI Scientist', 'Data Engineer' at Tempus AI
Cadence weekly
Why it matters Indicates Tempus's investment in expanding its sales force (especially for MRD as reimbursement improves) and its R&D capabilities in AI and data, aligning with management's strategic priorities.
Signal to watch Significant increase in sales force hiring for MRD or AI/data science roles.
Confidence: high
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Metric/field Unique Visitors and Engagement Metrics (e.g., time on site) for 'investors.tempus.com' and 'tempus.com'
Cadence monthly
Why it matters Reflects investor interest and customer engagement with Tempus's corporate and product information, providing insights into market attention.
Signal to watch Sustained or increasing web traffic and engagement, particularly to investor relations pages.
Confidence: medium
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Metric/field Spend data or contract renewals for 'Tempus AI' or 'AI/Data Licensing' services by pharmaceutical companies (e.g., AstraZeneca, BioNTech, Merck)
Cadence monthly
Why it matters Provides insights into actual spending by Tempus's key pharma clients on its data licensing and modeling services, validating the 'Data Owner' thesis and contract value.
Signal to watch Increasing spend or favorable renewal trends from major pharma partners.
Confidence: medium
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Metric/field Market size, growth forecasts, and competitive landscape analysis for 'Precision Oncology', 'AI in Healthcare Diagnostics', 'Genomic Sequencing Services'
Cadence irregular
Why it matters Offers macro-level insights into the growth trajectory and competitive dynamics of the markets Tempus operates in, informing long-term strategic positioning.
Signal to watch Upward revisions in market growth forecasts or Tempus gaining market share in key segments.
Confidence: high
Tempus AI is a premier 'Data Owner' in healthcare AI, leveraging its expanding multimodal data and proprietary distribution to drive accelerating high-margin da
Tempus AI is a premier 'Data Owner' in healthcare AI, leveraging its expanding multimodal data and proprietary distribution to drive accelerating high-margin data licensing and precision diagnostics. The strategic Personalis acquisition significantly boosts its MRD capabilities, while substantial FDA-driven ASP uplifts for xT CDx and xF solidify its diagnostic profitability. With confirmed 2026 adjusted EBITDA profitability and a clear path to positive free cash flow, Tempus reinforces its unique position as vital infrastructure for pharmaceutical R&D and clinical decision-making. (Updated: 2026-10-20)
Tempus's Data and Applications segment continues its strong momentum, with Q2 2026 revenues increasing 28% year-over-year and Insights growing 36%. The successful delivery of its foundation model to AstraZeneca and new multi-year data licensing agreements with BioNTech, Daiichi Sankyo, LevelSet Bio, and Incyte Pharmaceuticals, totaling $200 million in bookings, validate its 'Data Owner' position and provide strong visibility for sustained 30%+ long-term growth.
The FDA approval for tumor-only xT CDx, expected to provide an estimated $200 ASP uplift ($85 million annually starting 2027), and the anticipated FDA approval of the xF liquid biopsy in H2 2027, projecting an additional $550 ASP lift, are significant catalysts. These approvals are expected to generate approximately $400 million in total revenue uplift in 2028, substantially enhancing diagnostic profitability and market position.
The agreement to acquire Personalis strategically accelerates Tempus's entry and market penetration in the rapidly growing $20 billion+ minimal residual disease (MRD) testing market. With MRD test volumes growing 38% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, the acquisition rounds out Tempus's portfolio and strengthens its multimodal data flywheel, despite current sales force constraints.
Despite robust MRD volume growth, Tempus continues to face significant reimbursement hurdles, with sales efforts remaining 'highly constrained' due to unit economics. The company plans to ramp up its MRD sales force only when ASPs reach break-even, indicating that delays in securing broad reimbursement or favorable CMS decisions could impact the full commercialization potential and long-term margin targets for this high-growth segment.
The Hereditary testing segment experienced slower growth, up only 5% in Q2 2026, attributed to lapping periods of abnormally high growth. While management expects a return to mid-teens growth by year-end, this segment's volatility and reliance on the successful uptake of new products like GenomeNext highlight potential revenue lumpiness and increased dependence on other segments to maintain overall growth targets.
While Tempus achieved GAAP net income and positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 and expects positive free cash flow by year-end, the inherent capital intensity of maintaining high-tech labs, continuously investing in GPU capacity for advanced AI models, and financing a large portion of the Personalis acquisition with debt could pressure financial flexibility and lead to unexpected cash flow fluctuations.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | What To Watch | What It Signals | Where/How To Track | Free Alt Data | Paid Alt Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Achievement of Positive Free Cash Flow by Year-End 2026 | Achieving positive free cash flow by year-end 2026 demonstrates strong financial discipline and operational efficiency, driven by interest expense savings from the convertible notes offering and improved operating activities, signaling a clear path to self-sufficiency. | Quarterly Free Cash Flow figures in Q3 and Q4 2026. Management commentary on operating activities and the impact of the $30 million annual interest expense savings. | Bullish: Free cash flow turns positive by year-end 2026, with continued improvement in Adjusted EBITDA in 2027. Bearish: Free cash flow remains negative by year-end 2026 or shows unexpected deterioration. | Company press releases, SEC filings (10-Q/K), future earnings calls. | [] | [] |
| FDA Approval of xF Liquid Biopsy and Associated ASP Uplift | This approval unlocks a significant revenue stream and margin expansion, contributing to an estimated $400 million total revenue uplift in 2028 from xT CDx and xF, validating Tempus's advanced diagnostic capabilities and market positioning. | FDA decision on the xF liquid biopsy submission. Confirmation of ADLT pricing for xF at or above the anticipated $7,500. | Bullish: FDA approval for xF in the latter half of 2027 and confirmation of ADLT pricing at or above $7,500. Bearish: Delays in FDA approval beyond H2 2027 or lower-than-expected ADLT pricing. | Company press releases, SEC filings (10-Q/K), future earnings calls. FDA website for device approvals. | [] | [] |
| Integration of Personalis and Acceleration of MRD Testing Volume/Reimbursement | The acquisition of Personalis accelerates Tempus's entry into the rapidly growing $20 billion+ minimal residual disease (MRD) market, strengthening its portfolio and multimodal data flywheel. Successful integration and improved reimbursement are crucial for scaling MRD testing profitably. | Updates on the Personalis acquisition closing (expected Q4 2026 - Q1 2027). Quarterly MRD test volume growth rates (Q2 2026 was 9,000 tests, up 38% Q/Q). Management commentary on Personalis's ASP improvements and expansion of sales force selling MRD tests. | Bullish: Acquisition closes as planned, Personalis secures coverage for additional indications leading to ASP improvements, and Tempus ramps up its MRD sales force dramatically when ASPs reach break-even. Bearish: Delays in acquisition closing, slower-than-expected ASP improvements for Personalis, or continued constraints on MRD sales force expansion. | Company press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-Q/K), future earnings calls. | [] | [] |
| Insights Segment Momentum and New Strategic Collaborations | The strong performance and new large multi-year data licensing and modeling agreements, such as with BioNTech, validate Tempus's 'Data Owner' thesis and its AI capabilities, providing long-term revenue visibility and high-margin growth. | Announcements of new strategic collaborations of similar magnitude to BioNTech, AstraZeneca, or Merck. Data and Apps revenue growth rates (Q2 2026 was 28% Y/Y, Insights 36% Y/Y). Updates on the adoption and expansion of the foundation model with AstraZeneca and other partners. | Bullish: Continued signing of large multi-year data licensing and modeling agreements, maintaining Data and Apps revenue growth in the close to 30% range or higher. Bearish: Slowdown in new strategic collaborations or deceleration of Data and Apps revenue growth below 28% year-over-year. | Company press releases, SEC filings (10-Q/K), future earnings calls. | 1. Google Trends — Search InterestNot in registry Metric/field Search term volume for 'Tempus AI data licensing' AND 'Tempus AI BioNTech' Cadence weekly Why it matters Indicates public and industry interest in Tempus's data licensing deals and partnerships, signaling potential market awareness and adoption. Signal to watch Sustained or increasing search interest in Tempus's data partnerships. Confidence: Medium | [] |
| Hereditary Business Reacceleration to Mid-Teens Growth | Reacceleration of the hereditary testing segment to mid-teens growth by year-end is important for the overall health and diversification of the Diagnostics business, offsetting slower growth seen in Q2 2026 due to lapping abnormally high growth. | Hereditary revenue growth rates in Q3 and Q4 2026. Management commentary on the performance and adoption of new products like GenomeNext. | Bullish: Hereditary unit growth returns to mid-teens or higher by year-end 2026. Bearish: Hereditary unit growth remains below mid-teens in H2 2026 or shows further deceleration. | Company press releases, SEC filings (10-Q/K), future earnings calls. | [] | [] |
This metric indicates the performance of a key diagnostic segment that experienced slower growth. Its reacceleration to mid-teens growth is a management expecta
| Key reported metrics | Rerating thresholds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Last period | Why it matters | What's needed for rerating | Rerating context | Earnings date |
| Hereditary Revenue | 5% | This metric indicates the performance of a key diagnostic segment that experienced slower growth. Its reacceleration to mid-teens growth is a management expectation and a watchpoint for investors. | Hereditary Revenue needs to demonstrate year-over-year growth of 15% or higher for the upcoming Q3 2026 earnings report. | Reaccelerating Hereditary Revenue growth to mid-teens validates the stability of this diagnostic segment and the successful uptake of new products like GenomeNext, reducing revenue lumpiness concerns and supporting overall diagnostic profitability. | |
| Data and Apps Revenue | $93.2 million (28% year-over-year growth) | This high-margin segment is central to Tempus AI's "Data Owner" thesis, demonstrating the successful monetization of its proprietary data through AI in drug discovery and development. | Data and Apps Revenue needs to report year-over-year growth of 30% or higher for the upcoming Q3 2026 earnings report. | This high-margin segment is central to Tempus AI's 'Data Owner' thesis. Sustained growth above 30% validates the successful monetization of proprietary data through AI, driving future profitability and justifying a premium valuation. | |
| Total Revenue | $382.5 million (22% year-over-year growth) | This is the primary indicator of Tempus AI's overall market penetration and growth across its diagnostics and data businesses, crucial for validating its integrated AI and diagnostics model. | Total Revenue needs to exceed analyst consensus estimates of approximately $409.4 million and report at least $420 million for the upcoming Q3 2026 earnings report. | Total Revenue is the primary indicator of Tempus AI's overall market penetration and growth. Exceeding consensus and demonstrating accelerating growth validates its integrated AI and diagnostics model, supporting its premium valuation and scalability. | |
| Key reported metrics | Rerating thresholds | Earnings results | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Last period | Why it matters | What's needed for rerating | Rerating context | Earnings date | Actual reported | Hit target? | Notes |
| Diagnostic Revenue Growth | 35% | This metric indicates clinical adoption of NGS testing, which simultaneously generates proprietary molecular data for the Insights library and powers algorithmic diagnostic tools, fueling Tempus's AI flywheel. | Sustained Diagnostic Revenue Growth above 30% year-over-year, ideally maintaining the Q1 2026 level of ~35% or showing acceleration. This must be coupled with tangible progress on FDA approvals for xF liquid biopsy or tumor-only amendments, significant advancements in broad MRD reimbursement to unblock sales, and the reacceleration of the Hereditary business to mid-teens growth in H2 2026, all contributing to the projected $500 incremental ASP uplift. | Sustained high diagnostic growth, fueled by FDA approvals and improved reimbursement, validates Tempus's integrated AI and diagnostics model. It expands the proprietary data moat, drives cash flow for AI development, and confirms market share gains, justifying a premium valuation as a 'Data Owner' in healthcare AI. | $289.3 million (20% year-over-year growth) | No | Diagnostic business revenue increased 20% year-over-year, which is a deceleration from the prior quarter's 35% and below the 30% rerating trigger. Hereditary revenue was up 5%, falling short of the mid-teens growth expected for H2 2026. However, the company did receive FDA approval for tumor-only xT CDx, expecting a $200 ASP uplift, and has its xF liquid biopsy in front of the FDA, anticipating an additional $550 ASP lift upon approval in late 2027. MRD test volumes grew 38% quarter-over-quarter. | |
| Data and Applications Business Revenue Growth | 40.5% | This high-margin segment is central to the 'Data Owner' thesis, validating the monetization of Tempus's proprietary data through AI in drug discovery and development, and is a key driver for future profitability. | Data and Applications Business Revenue Growth needs to accelerate to 55% year-over-year or higher, significantly exceeding the current 40.5% and the analyst's projected continuation of 40% growth. | Achieving this accelerated growth validates Tempus AI's 'Data Owner' thesis, demonstrating successful monetization of its proprietary, high-margin data through AI in drug discovery and development. This justifies a tech-premium valuation and de-risks concerns about data contract volatility, driving future profitability. | $93.2 million (28% year-over-year growth) | No | The Data and Apps business grew 28% year-over-year, with the Insights business growing at 36% in the quarter. This represents a deceleration from the prior quarter's 40.5% and did not meet the rerating trigger of 55% or higher. Management noted strong momentum in signing deals and expressed confidence in maintaining long-term growth in the close to 30% range. | |
| Total Revenue | 36% | Total revenue growth confirms market share gains in NGS and clinical data markets. Sustained growth is essential to support Tempus's premium valuation and prove the scalability of its integrated diagnostics and data-driven business model. | Total Revenue growth needs to consistently exceed 35% year-over-year, significantly outperforming management's long-term 25% CAGR guidance and the current 32.8% consensus. This sustained outperformance must be primarily driven by the high-margin 'Insights' segment maintaining 38%+ growth, demonstrating consistent conversion of its Total Contract Value (TCV) bookings into recognized revenue. | Sustained Total Revenue growth above 35%, particularly from the high-margin Insights segment, validates Tempus as a scalable AI platform, not just a diagnostic lab. This proves the 'Data Owner' thesis, showing proprietary data drives recurring pharmaceutical licensing revenue, justifying a tech-premium multiple and de-risking contract lumpiness concerns. | $382.5 million (22% year-over-year growth) | No | Overall revenues increased 22% year-over-year, which is a significant deceleration from the prior quarter's 36% and well below the 35% rerating trigger. While the company increased its 2026 guidance to $1.595 billion-$1.605 billion, representing approximately 25% growth, the Q2 performance did not demonstrate the sustained outperformance required for a rerating. | |
Will Tempus AI successfully integrate Personalis to accelerate MRD testing volume and improve ASPs, and can it maintain momentum towards the anticipated FDA app
Will Tempus AI successfully integrate Personalis to accelerate MRD testing volume and improve ASPs, and can it maintain momentum towards the anticipated FDA approval of its xF liquid biopsy in late 2027, securing the projected $550 incremental ASP uplift?
Can Tempus AI sustain the strong growth and momentum in its Data and Applications business, evidenced by continued large strategic collaborations and successful delivery of its foundation model to partners like AstraZeneca, to maintain its long-term growth target of 30%+?
Will Tempus AI achieve positive free cash flow by year-end 2026 and demonstrate continued improvement in Adjusted EBITDA in 2027, particularly given the Personalis acquisition and the $30 million annual interest expense savings?
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. **Driving ASP uplift and expanding diagnostic capabilities through FDA approvals:** Management highlighted the FDA approval for tumor-only xT CDx, expecting an estimated $200 uplift in ASP, and the submission of their liquid biopsy xF to the FDA, anticipating an additional $550 ASP lift upon approval in late 2027, totaling approximately $400 million of revenue uplift in 2028. 2. **Accelerating growth and strategic partnerships in the Data and Apps business:** The company emphasized the strong momentum in Data and Apps, with 28% year-over-year growth and Insights growing at 36%. They noted signing large multi-year data licensing and modeling agreements with BioNTech, Daiichi Sankyo, LevelSet Bio, and Incyte Pharmaceuticals, contributing to $200 million in total bookings, and the successful delivery of their foundation model to AstraZeneca. 3. **Strategic acquisition of Personalis and achieving financial targets:** Management announced the agreement to acquire Personalis to accelerate commercial adoption of their MRD test, round out their portfolio, and strengthen the multimodal data flywheel. They also highlighted achieving GAAP net income of $5.6 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $8 million, and expect to achieve positive free cash flow by year-end, saving over $30 million annually in interest expense from a convertible notes offering. | Call Takeaway & ToneThe overall takeaway of the call was highly positive and confident. Tempus AI reported an exceptional Q2 2026, demonstrating strong revenue growth across all segments, particularly in Diagnostics and Data and Apps. Management expressed significant optimism regarding the impact of recent FDA approvals on ASPs, the robust momentum in their data business with new strategic deals, and the strategic benefits of the Personalis acquisition. The company is on track to achieve positive free cash flow by year-end and improved Adjusted EBITDA, reinforcing a strong financial outlook. The tone was upbeat and focused on sustained long-term growth and strategic execution. | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentIn Q1 2026, Total Revenue was up a little over 36% year-over-year. Diagnostic revenue was almost 35% growth. Hereditary business slowed down (Q4 2025 was 23% y/y growth). Data and applications business revenue was 40.5% year-over-year growth, with data licensing and modeling business insights growing over 44%. | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. **Personalis acquisition's underlying ASP assumptions and MRD data integration:** Analysts questioned the ASP assumptions for Personalis and how incremental MRD data would feed into Tempus's data business. Management responded that Personalis has secured coverage for several indications, with more coming, and they anticipate ASPs to improve over time. They also noted that MRD data is becoming a compelling component of their overall data offering for biopharma clients seeking earlier signals of cancer recurrence. 2. **AstraZeneca foundation model delivery and future contracting for 2027 and beyond:** Analysts inquired about the delivered foundation model to AstraZeneca and the agreement's structure for 2027 and beyond. Management confirmed the foundation model's acceptance, stating it met performance criteria and can now serve as a foundation for AstraZeneca's R&D. They clarified that the current agreement extends for several years, and they expect AstraZeneca to remain a large client, likely opting into long-term extensions for preferential pricing. 3. **xF FDA clearance tailwind change and Personalis termination risk:** Analysts asked about the increased xF FDA clearance tailwind ($550 vs. $230 previously) and the possibility of Personalis terminating the acquisition if Tempus's shares trade below $46. Management explained the xF pricing change is due to evolving market prices for liquid biopsies from other approvals. Regarding Personalis, they stated they cannot envision a scenario where the deal doesn't close, as Tempus has cash and stock as levers, and Personalis highly desires the transaction. | Revenue SegmentsOverall revenues increased 22% to $382.5 million. Diagnostics business revenue increased 20% year-over-year to $289.3 million. Hereditary revenue was up 5% to $107.4 million. Data and Apps revenues increased 28% year-over-year to $93.2 million, with the Insights (data licensing and modeling) business growing at 36% in the quarter. |
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. **Sustaining strong revenue growth and achieving profitability:** Management highlighted total revenue growth of over 36% and increased full-year guidance to a range of $1.59 billion to $1.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of about $65 million, emphasizing the business is performing "at or above plan" and on track for a "great year." 2. **Expanding and deepening data and AI collaborations with pharmaceutical companies:** This was evidenced by new large strategic collaborations with Merck and an expanded relationship with Gilead, along with strong bookings and the trend of pharma companies building proprietary models leveraging Tempus's extensive de-identified data. 3. **Advancing diagnostic assays through FDA approvals and improving average selling prices (ASPs):** Management discussed the xF FDA submission and an amendment for tumor-only cases to accelerate migration to ADLT, anticipating an incremental ASP lift of approximately $500 over the next one to two years as more assays achieve FDA approval. | Call Takeaway & ToneThe overall takeaway of the call was highly positive and confident. Tempus AI reported a strong Q1 2026, with total revenue up over 36% and the Data and Applications business showing robust 40.5% growth. Management expressed strong confidence in achieving its increased full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, driven by accelerating growth in both diagnostics and data, deepening strategic partnerships with pharma, and the anticipated positive impact of FDA approvals on ASPs. The tone conveyed optimism about the company's unique position, proprietary data, and AI platform, with a clear focus on sustained long-term growth and profitability. | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentIn Q4 2025, Oncology unit growth was 29% year-over-year, indicating a slight deceleration in Q1 2026. Hereditary unit growth was 23% year-over-year in Q4 2025, showing a deceleration in Q1 2026. Data licensing business (Insights) was up 69% year-over-year in Q4 2025 (including a one-time warrant impact), with Q1 2026's 40.5% growth slightly exceeding the prior projection of roughly 40%. | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. **Analyst Question:** How discussions with large Pharma customers are trending, particularly regarding AI interest and the longevity/extension potential of de-identified data agreements. **Mgmt Response:** Eric Lefkofsky stated that core big data relationships are very strong, with a history of renewing agreements at or above historical levels. He highlighted new large strategic collaborations (Merck) and expanded relationships (Gilead), noting the increasing trend of customers building models with Tempus's data. 2. **Analyst Question:** Visibility and confidence in hitting the implied $410 million data revenue guidance, especially with the new Merck and Gilead deals, and potential levers for upside. **Mgmt Response:** Jim Rogers expressed high visibility, noting that the $350 million of TCV earmarked for 2026, combined with the strong pipeline including Merck and Gilead, provides significant confidence. He also mentioned that Total Contract Value (TCV) increased in Q1, indicating a growing backlog for future revenue. 3. **Analyst Question:** The progression of Free Cash Flow, given it was down in Q1, and the durability of billing for xT, xR, and xF assays once FDA-approved. **Mgmt Response:** Jim Rogers explained that Q1 Free Cash Flow was elevated due to typical timing of payables and bonus payouts, anticipating significant improvement in Q2 as payables normalize and large Insights contracts transition to quarterly payments. Eric Lefkofsky added that FDA approvals would not change how tests are ordered or billed individually but are expected to lead to an incremental ASP lift of about $500 over the next year or two. | Revenue SegmentsTotal Revenue was $348.1 million, up a little over 36% year-over-year. Diagnostic revenue was $261.1 million, representing almost 35% growth, with Oncology unit growth at about 28%. Hereditary business slowed down. Data and applications business revenue was $87 million, representing 40.5% year-over-year growth, with data licensing and modeling business insights growing over 44%. |
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. **Accelerating Growth and Market Share**: Management highlighted that both Diagnostics and Data businesses are growing rapidly and performing above expectations, with Oncology unit growth accelerating and the Data business growing even faster. They also emphasized their platform advantage in driving growth across all assay types. 2. **Leveraging AI and Proprietary Data**: Eric Lefkofsky stressed the unique position of Tempus with its proprietary data (over 450 petabytes of connected multimodal data) and distribution network (5,500+ hospitals, 8,500+ oncologists) as a key differentiator against competitors in the AI space. The company is doubling down on foundation model efforts, expecting them to be catalytic for both diagnostic and data businesses. 3. **Achieving Profitability and Strong Financial Health**: The company guided to approximately $65 million of positive adjusted EBITDA for 2026 and noted its balance sheet is in great shape, indicating a focus on sustainable financial performance. | Call Takeaway & ToneThe overall takeaway of the call is that Tempus AI had an exceptional 2025, with both its Diagnostics and Data businesses growing rapidly and exceeding expectations, and is well-positioned for a strong 2026. Management expressed high confidence in the company's AI advantages, proprietary data moat, and ability to achieve sustainable profitability. The tone was highly positive and optimistic, emphasizing accelerating growth, strategic investments in AI, and strong financial health. | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentFor Q3 2025, Oncology unit growth was 27% year-over-year, indicating an acceleration in Q4 2025. Hereditary unit growth was 37% year-over-year in Q3 2025, showing a deceleration in Q4 2025. Data Licensing/Insights grew 38% year-over-year in Q3 2025, which accelerated significantly to 69% in Q4 2025 due to a one-time impact. | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. **AI's value distribution and Tempus's data protection**: Analysts questioned how Tempus's position is protected on the data side given traditional AI players entering healthcare. Management responded that Tempus is uniquely positioned with both proprietary data (450+ petabytes of connected multimodal data) and proprietary distribution (connected to 5,500+ hospitals and 8,500+ oncologists), making it difficult to replicate. 2. **MRD volumes and the sales force strategy**: Analysts inquired about the significant potential for MRD volumes (20x higher) if the sales force was fully engaged. Management clarified that the 20x higher figure was a hypothetical highlighting the strength of their MRD offering, which is currently highly constrained due to reimbursement considerations. They intend to ungate this effort over time as reimbursement is established. 3. **Data and Services revenue guide and visibility for 2026**: Analysts asked about the embedded data and services revenue in the 2026 guide and visibility into in-year bookings. Management stated that strong bookings have provided greater visibility into 2026 revenue than ever before, with a high percentage of revenue already committed. They also noted that the vast majority of this segment is data licensing. | Revenue SegmentsTotal core business revenue (including Ambry acquisition) was up over 33% year-over-year. In Diagnostics, Oncology unit growth was 29% year-over-year, and Hereditary unit growth was 23% year-over-year. The Data licensing business (Insights) was up 69% year-over-year, factoring in the one-time impact of the AstraZeneca warrant, with a projection of roughly 40% growth for Q1 2026. |
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. Profitability Milestone: Achieving positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time in company history ($4M excluding the Paige acquisition). 2. Data Licensing Scale: Executing high-value contracts, highlighted by $150M in new total contract value (TCV) bookings this quarter. 3. Durable Growth: Maintaining a consistent 25% growth trajectory for the next three years by optimizing the sales force and expanding the MRD (Minimal Residual Disease) and liquid biopsy portfolio. | Call Takeaway & ToneTakeaway: Tempus has reached a critical inflection point, proving it can achieve profitability (Adjusted EBITDA positive) while simultaneously accelerating year-over-year growth in its core segments. The massive $150M in data bookings reinforces their 'Data Owner' moat in the AI space. Tone: Highly confident, disciplined, and focused on long-term scale over short-term volatility. | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentQ2 2025 Y/Y Growth: Genomics (Overall): 26%; Data Licensing/Insights: 31%. (Growth accelerated in both major segments in Q3). | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. Drivers of Genomics Volume: Analysts asked if growth was due to market shifts or internal execution. Mgmt attributed it to a more efficient, better-trained sales force and the integration of their technology into physician workflows. 2. MRD and Reimbursement: Analysts questioned the go-to-market speed for MRD testing. Mgmt responded they will 'dial up' volume as reimbursement is secured to ensure sustainable, long-term growth rather than artificial short-term spikes. 3. Data Booking Disclosures: Analysts asked about the $150M in new bookings and backlog. Mgmt explained that while they usually report TCV annually, these specific deals were significant enough to highlight the widening gap between Tempus and its competitors in data licensing. | Revenue SegmentsGenomics (Overall): 33% y/y growth (Oncology: 27%, Hereditary: 37%); Data Licensing/Insights: 38% y/y growth. |
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| About Expanding Eligible MarketTempus received FDA approval for tumor-only xT CDx, which is expected to provide an estimated $200 uplift in ASP, equating to approximately $85 million on an annual basis starting in 2027. The company's liquid biopsy, xF, is currently in front of the FDA, with anticipated approval in the latter half of 2027, which is expected to bring an additional ASP lift of $550. Combined, xT CDx and xF approvals are projected to result in approximately $400 million of revenue uplift in 2028. Tempus announced an agreement to acquire Personalis, noting that minimal residual disease (MRD) testing represents a $20 billion+ market and is one of the fastest-growing segments in oncology diagnostics. MRD test volumes grew 38% quarter-over-quarter, from approximately 6,500 tests in Q1 to 9,000 tests in Q2. The company signed a large multi-year data licensing and modeling agreement with BioNTech, adding to its roster of pharma partners including AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Merck. Initial results from and the first version of Tempus's foundation model were successfully delivered to AstraZeneca, used to predict patient responses in clinical trials. The launch of GenomeNext for rare disease showed strong initial uptake, exceeding expectations by 50% in the first month. | About CompetitionTempus's data and modeling capabilities are becoming instrumental to pharma, as evidenced by new large deals with BioNTech, Daiichi Sankyo, LevelSet Bio, and Incyte Pharmaceuticals. The company's xF liquid biopsy assay is comparable in size and complexity to Guardant's recently approved assay, and Tempus expects to follow similar ADLT pricing precedents set by competitors. Eric Lefkofsky stated that he does not believe there is "beachfront real estate" to be procured in the MRD market, suggesting a different competitive dynamic compared to therapy selection where Foundation Medicine did not dominate over Tempus and Caris. The data business is experiencing significant momentum, with more deals being signed than in a long time, indicating strong competitive performance. | About The Broader IndustryMinimal residual disease (MRD) testing is identified as a $20 billion+ market and one of the fastest-growing segments in oncology diagnostics. The market for liquid biopsies and ADLT pricing is evolving, with other companies setting precedents that influence Tempus's pricing expectations for its xF assay. Biopharma clients are increasingly seeking MRD data to understand clinical trial endpoints and detect signs of cancer recurrence earlier, often six to twelve months before scans. This trend highlights the value of early signals for drug companies to initiate treatment sooner. | Where Things Are HeadedTempus anticipates an estimated $200 uplift in ASP for tumor-only xT CDx, translating to approximately $85 million annually starting in 2027. With the expected FDA approval of its liquid biopsy, xF, in the latter half of 2027, an additional ASP lift of $550 is projected, leading to a total anticipated revenue uplift of approximately $400 million in 2028 from both xT CDx and xF approvals. The company expects to achieve positive free cash flow by year-end 2026, partly due to saving over $30 million annually in interest expense from a convertible senior notes offering. Tempus is increasing its 2026 guidance to $1.595 billion-$1.605 billion in revenue, representing approximately 25% growth, and expects 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $65 million, a $72 million improvement over 2025. Even with the Personalis acquisition, Tempus intends to see continued improvement in Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow in 2027. The company plans to finance a large portion of the Personalis acquisition with debt to minimize shareholder dilution. MRD ASPs are expected to continue improving as Personalis secures coverage for additional indications, and Tempus plans to ramp up its MRD sales force dramatically once ASPs reach break-even. The data business aims to maintain long-term growth in the close to 30% range for multiple years. The hereditary business is expected to reach mid-teens growth by the end of the year. | Updates On ThemeDiagnostics | Broader Themes EmergingThe increasing importance of multimodal data integration, particularly combining genomic and clinical data with MRD insights, for pharmaceutical R&D and clinical trial endpoint analysis. The evolving landscape of AI foundation models in drug discovery and development, with a focus on predictive capabilities. The strategic value of proprietary data and platforms in securing long-term partnerships with major biopharma companies. | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Q2 was an exceptional quarter for Tempus. Overall, our revenues increased 22% to $382.5 million. June saw some of the strongest growth we have seen to date across the portfolio. We expect an estimated $200 uplift in ASP, which equates to approximately $85 million on an annual basis beginning in 2027. We anticipate approximately $400 million of revenue uplift in 2028. Our data and modeling capabilities are becoming instrumental to pharma. This transaction allows us to save over $30 million annually in interest expense, enabling us to achieve positive free cash flow by year-end. MRD testing represents a $20 billion+ market and is one of the fastest-growing segments in oncology diagnostics. We are delivering growth rates that have exceeded our expectations, running approximately 9,000 tests in Q2, growing 38% quarter-over-quarter. We are increasing guidance to $1.595 billion-$1.605 billion in 2026, representing approximately 25% growth. We expect 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $65 million, an improvement of about $72 million over 2025. The data business is just on fire. We have great visibility into our growth rates, not just in 2026, but 2027. We really are interested in maintaining long-term growth in that close to 30% range plus. The pricing here is just higher than we expected, and so it's a significant benefit to us. We're in a great spot where the core business is now starting to generate so much gross margin and gross profit dollar growth. The launch [GenomeNext] was great. | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Slower growth in hereditary cancer testing was offset by higher growth in CGP testing. Q2 of 2025 was a period of abnormally high growth, which we are now lapping. Hereditary revenue for the quarter was up 5%. We just want to time the full unshackling of these efforts to having the tests at an ASP level be basically break even. If you're losing money, if your margin's negative and you rush to run an extra 100,000 tests, you're just burning money. We don't believe there's beachfront real estate to be procured. We only have one month of data, obviously, we're trying to ramp up our hereditary growth rates. | HiringTempus plans to equip additional sales reps with NeXT (MRD test) over time as reimbursement improves. The company will ramp up the sales force "pretty dramatically" once ASPs for MRD tests start to climb and break-even is in sight. The core business's strong gross margin growth allows for investments like sales force growth without negatively impacting EBITDA or cash flow. |
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| About Expanding Eligible MarketTempus AI reported Diagnostic revenue of $261.1 million, representing almost 35% growth, with Oncology business unit growth of about 28%, driven by strong performance in solid tumor and liquid biopsies, and even better performance in MRD volume. The data and applications business saw $87 million in revenue, a 40.5% year-over-year growth, with data licensing and modeling business insights growing over 44%. The company had its third straight quarter of bookings north of $100 million. Tempus added Merck as a very large strategic collaboration and expanded its relationship with Gilead, now having almost half a dozen pharma clients with $100 million-plus agreements. They are increasingly building proprietary models with partners, including foundation models with AstraZeneca, leveraging their database of over 500 petabytes. While the vast majority of data licensing is currently in Oncology, recent multi-million dollar wins in Neurology, such as a multimodal model in Alzheimer's disease, indicate expansion into other disease areas. Tempus expects its data and modeling business in the U.S. to reach multi-billion dollars, with significant opportunities internationally. The company has an xF FDA submission and is making an amendment to its FDA-approved assay to cover tumor-only cases, which will accelerate migration to the ADLT version. ASPs are expected to rise by about $500 over the next 1-2 years as more assays receive FDA approval. Management believes the therapy selection market is still in its early to middle stages, with significant unit volume growth potential for the industry over the next 3 to 5 years. MRD growth is robust, but its sales force is currently constrained due to reimbursement, with plans to roll it out more aggressively as reimbursement improves. The hereditary business is expected to return to mid-teens growth in the second half of the year, particularly as the RARE product takes hold. Algorithms like Homologous Recombination Deficiency, Tumor Origin, and Immune Profile Score are driving ordering behavior by providing physicians with advanced tools. | About CompetitionTempus AI's data business and modeling business has reached a scale and durability that management believes few anticipated, with almost half a dozen pharma clients signing $100 million-plus agreements, a feat considered impressive even with one or two clients. The company attributes its faster growth in therapy selection compared to most others to its comprehensive technology platform. Management stated that Companion Diagnostics (CDx) have had no impact on physician ordering in the U.S. and will not affect the growth of companies in external sequencing. Tempus believes that if it were to fully unconstrain its MRD sales efforts, it would become a 'very, very formidable MRD player in the United States'. | About The Broader IndustryThe broader industry is seeing evolving interest in AI, with de-identified data holding a high position in the hierarchy of needs for large pharmaceutical customers. There is an increasing trend of companies building proprietary models to enhance their internal R&D programs. Physicians are overworked and seeking platforms that can help them make real-time data-driven decisions, analyze data, and arrive at correct answers efficiently. Despite advancements, a significant volume of physicians are still not ordering comprehensive genomic profiling for cancer patients. The Solid-Tumor Profiling and Liquid Biopsy markets are considered healthy, with the Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) market being even healthier due to its relative newness. | Where Things Are HeadedTempus AI increased its guidance for the year to a revenue range of $1.59 billion to $1.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of about $65 million. The company expects its Hereditary business to return to mid-teens growth in the second half of the year. Management anticipates that its core big data relationships will continue to renew at or above historical levels and expects to add more large new strategic clients. The trend of pharmaceutical companies building proprietary models leveraging Tempus's data is projected to continue its upward trajectory. Free Cash Flow is expected to see significant improvement in Q2, followed by continued improvements as adjusted EBITDA increases. Over time, Tempus anticipates all of its main assays (xT, xR, xF) will be FDA-approved, which is expected to drive a rise in ASPs by approximately $500 over the next 1-2 years. The company projects 25% top-line growth over the next three years. EBITDA is expected to progress throughout the year, with the latter half being stronger for the data business, leading to expanded margins. Tempus plans to roll out its MRD sales force more aggressively as reimbursement improves, aiming to become a significant player in the MRD space. The back half of the year is expected to be much better for the hereditary business as the RARE product gains traction. | Updates On ThemeDiagnostics | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)We had a great quarter. Revenue was $348.1 million, up a little over 36% year-over-year. Our data business, data and applications business did extraordinarily well, $87 million of revenue, representing 40.5% year-over-year growth. We had our third straight quarter of bookings north of $100 million. The business is doing extremely well. We're on track for a great year, and as a result, increased our guidance. All of our core big data relationships are very strong. We feel great about that trend continuing. We now have almost half a dozen folks at that level where people are signing these very large strategic agreements with more coming. The Insights business is really performing incredibly well at this stage. We've never been at this point in the year with this level of visibility into the overall number. Our TCV actually increased in the first quarter, which is incredibly impressive. We can see the data business -- especially the data and modeling business in the U.S., getting to multi-billion dollars. Lots of legroom. We feel great about our cash position. We don't need more cash. We're going to generate cash, we're going to be EBITDA positive. Nothing about the current trend is anything but significantly positive. The differential in growth rates, the fact that we're growing faster than others or and most others in therapy selection, is predominantly related to the technology platform we built, which is comprehensive and allows physicians to do their job well. We see no sign of that slowing down. It does feel like it's a healthy space in terms of Solid-Tumor Profiling, Liquid Biopsy and then even healthier on the MRD side. The growth is really robust. If we really put a bunch of wood behind this we would be a very, very formidable MRD player in the United States. We expect 25% growth not just in 1 year, but over 3 years. And at our scale, that's not a small number. | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Hereditary slowed down a bit, which was to be expected given that we're lapping some extreme growth rates from a year ago. We don't expect that to have any impact on pricing or ASPs in 2026. CDx have been part of therapy selection for years. There are many of them. They've had no impact on physician ordering in the U.S. It's hard to move the units. We had a slower start to the first half of this year. The unit economics until reimbursement is better... it's very hard to unshackle all that volume because we would just be generating massive loss for them. We have to meter it, which we're doing, which we're doing in close coordination with them. Jim and I have never -- we've been at this for a long time. We've never had a quarter where everything goes our way. Something always doesn't go our way. |
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| About Expanding Eligible MarketTempus's MRD growth rate was 56% quarter-over-quarter, described as extraordinary. Hereditary unit growth was 23%. The company launched Paige Predict, which can generate insights from digitized pathology slides even when sequencing fails, making tests 'a little better than somebody else'. ASPs are expected to reach over $2,200 in the coming years, primarily driven by the migration of xT CDx to the FDA-approved version by the end of 2026. The xF liquid biopsy has been submitted to the FDA, with contributions expected in 2027. There is also anticipated upside from commercial payers. Foundation model efforts are expected to accelerate insights for the diagnostic business. The company has a whole genome heme offering going live this year. MRD volumes were around 4,700 tests in Q4, with 56% quarter-over-quarter growth, despite a 'highly constrained sales effort' which, if unblocked, 'could be 20x higher'. The Ambry acquisition broadened the comprehensive nature of their testing, especially in hereditary profiling. | About CompetitionTempus believes it is 'uniquely positioned' due to its proprietary data and distribution at scale, possessing over 450 petabytes of connected multimodal data. The CEO stated that replicating their data business would be 'an enormous lift' that they have been on for 10 years, and 'other people have been unable to replicate it'. The company feels it is 'pulling further and further away from the competition' in the data licensing space. Their core technology advantage is seen as driving the growth across all five of their assays (xT, xR, xF, xH, xE). In solid tumor, Tempus is growing 'faster than others'. They also noted that they didn't have to 'overly push on the accelerator for tumor naive' products, implying a strong position in tumor-informed offerings. | About The Broader IndustryThe markets are 'a bit anxious around AI and how value is getting distributed within that ecosystem', with 'traditional AI players push into the healthcare sphere'. The most interesting AI business models, particularly for large language or multimodal models, are seen as centering around access to proprietary data for training and proprietary distribution for insights. The market for sequencing is growing, with sequencing becoming 'more prevalent amongst our ordering physicians and ultimately patients'. There is a significant trend of provider partners wanting to contribute de-identified data to platforms like Tempus's to accelerate research and drug discovery, driven by the ongoing challenge of cancer mortality and the need to 'stop the waste'. The 'goalposts keep moving' for tumor-naive products, requiring continuous improvement. | Where Things Are HeadedTempus guided to $1.59 billion in revenue, in line with its 25% long-term growth expectations, and approximately $65 million of positive adjusted EBITDA, positioning them for a 'phenomenal 2026'. The licensing business is projected to grow roughly 40% this quarter, with net revenue retention at 126%. The foundation model for AstraZeneca hit its Q1 benchmarks, and Tempus has procured a second, larger cluster of GB200s for additional internal models across various data types. These models are expected to be 'catalytic' for both diagnostics and data businesses. Oncology volume growth is not expected to see a 'massive slowdown', while Hereditary growth is anticipated to moderate to 'high teens longer-term growth rate' with some lumpiness in 2026. The company plans to 'ungate' its MRD sales effort eventually, expecting to become a 'very large MRD supplier'. Core Oncology Diagnostic and data businesses are projected to grow '30-plus percent'. A whole genome heme offering will go live this year. Investment priorities remain focused on bringing technology and AI to diagnostics to ensure data-driven decisions. | Updates On ThemeData | Broader Themes EmergingAI integration and value distribution in specialized industries, Data Moats and Proprietary Distribution in the Age of AI, Multimodal AI and Foundation Models in Healthcare. | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)2025 was an exceptional year for Tempus. Our Diagnostic business is accelerating and performing above expectation. Our data business is growing even faster. Net revenue retention was 126%, which is super strong. We're poised for a phenomenal 2026. Tempus is uniquely positioned in that. We have both of those at scale. The data business is just kind of having a moment and the growth is actually accelerating. We're incredibly long on the value that these models are going to deliver. Our unit growth in Oncology is really strong and showing no signs of slowing down. We just have got crazy amounts of demand for our data products. | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Markets are a bit anxious around AI and how value is getting distributed. All next-generation sequencing has some amount of error. Some percentage of the time... you have results that can't be returned to a physician. Hereditary growth rates in 2026... might be a little bit lower in Q1. It's a function of reimbursement. The goalposts keep moving. We realized that we just weren't getting the performance off the first version of our assay. It's tough to continue growing at the same rate. | HiringIn terms of the sales force, we've made no big moves to reorg the sales force. We did that, obviously, early '25, and we announced the impact of that. And so the good news is we're long lapping that. |
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| About Expanding Eligible MarketTempus is expanding its reach through MRD reimbursement, which is currently on track, and the planned regulatory filing of its liquid biopsy xF later in 2025. The company raised its Hereditary growth expectations to the low to mid-20s. Additionally, the acquisition of Paige AI allows Tempus to expand into digital pathology, enabling them to return results even when traditional NGS sequencing fails or lacks sufficient tissue material. The company is also scaling its 'rare' business, aiming to become a major player in that niche over the next 12-18 months. | About CompetitionTempus competes against large, well-funded, established diagnostic companies, but claims a significant advantage through its unique data asset and proprietary software. CEO Eric Lefkofsky noted that unlike some competitors who may be seeing 'one-time benefits' from shifting between solid and liquid testing, Tempus's growth is driven by sales force efficiency and a comprehensive portfolio. The company believes it is 'pulling further and further apart' from peers in the data licensing space due to the scale and integration of its clinical and molecular datasets. | About The Broader IndustryThe industry is seeing a general tailwind as more biomarkers are identified, leading to increased NGS testing volumes. The broader Hereditary cancer market is estimated to be growing in the low double digits. Lefkofsky highlighted a structural necessity for AI in the U.S. healthcare system, noting that with $5.7 trillion in annual spending growing at 7.5%, the only solution to waste and error is the deployment of predictive and preventative 'intelligence' or AI. | Where Things Are HeadedTempus has issued a long-term guide of 25% growth for the next three years. The company achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time in Q3 2025 and expects to be slightly positive for the full year. Its foundation model, developed with AstraZeneca and Pathos, is finishing the pretraining phase, with first versions expected in Q1 2026. Throughout 2026, the company plans to migrate the majority of its testing volume to FDA-approved or ADLT versions to close the reimbursement gap with peers. | Updates On ThemeData | Broader Themes EmergingMultimodal data integration (combining molecular, pathology, and imaging data) is emerging as the next frontier for precision medicine. There is also a focus on the 'NVIDIA moment' for healthcare AI—the potential for rapid, high-margin revenue scaling once algorithmic diagnostic tests (dry lab) achieve standardized reimbursement paths similar to traditional wet lab tests. | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)“Q3 was a great quarter all around.”; “Positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time this quarter.”; “Our data product is just really differentiated.”; “We're just pulling further and further apart from anybody else we know of in the data space.”; “We expect to grow at about 25% for the next 3 years.” | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)“Hereditary growth will moderate a bit.”; “Any time you make changes to sales forces... you kind of cause havoc.”; “Total reimbursement on average is... well below parity with our peers.”; “It isn't well reimbursed, if at all [referring to algorithmic tests].” | HiringThe company highlighted its technical depth, mentioning it has '400 PhDs' and a significant number of software engineers on staff. It also noted recent significant changes and reorganization of its sales force to better align with the MRD portfolio and improve efficiency. |
| Date | Comment | Comment Type | Comment Sentiment | Link | Price Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Tempus AI reported strong Q4 2025 results, with core revenue up 33% and data licensing accelerating, projecting 40% growth for Q1 2026. They guided for $1.59 billion revenue and $65 million adjusted EBITDA in 2026, emphasizing significant MRD potential and AI advancements. Despite beating expectations, the stock dropped 7.32% (underperforming SPY), indicating persistent market concerns over reimbursement, data licensing volatility, or execution risks. | Other | Bearish | -7.32% (vs SPY: -8.16%) |
