RBRK
T2Rubrik, Inc.
OverviewRubrik, Inc. (RBRK) provides cyber resilience solutions, protecting data, applications, and identities from cyberattacks. Its platform offers data protection, i
Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) provides cyber resilience solutions, protecting data, applications, and identities from cyberattacks. Its platform offers data protection, identity resilience (over $50M ARR), and AI operations via Rubrik Agent Cloud for safe AI agent deployment. Cloud services drive 89% of its $1.57 billion subscription ARR. Rubrik primarily serves large enterprises and government agencies, targeting IT and security leaders.
- What They Do (Plain English & Analogies)
- Rubrik, Inc. provides a comprehensive cyber resilience platform that acts like a digital safety net and control system for businesses in the face of cyber threats and artificial intelligence. Imagine it as a combination of a high-security bunker and an intelligent autonomous driving system for a company's digital assets. If hackers launch a ransomware attack and lock up a company's data, Rubrik can quickly 'rewind' everything—data, digital identities, and applications—to a clean, safe state from before the attack, much like a time machine. This is their 'cyber resilience' solution, ensuring a business can recover rapidly and continue operating. Beyond just protection, Rubrik also helps companies safely manage and govern their AI agents, which are like 'superhuman' digital assistants. With their 'Rubrik Agent Cloud,' they provide real-time guardrails to monitor what these AI agents are doing, ensure they follow company rules, and even 'rewind' their actions if they make a mistake or get compromised. This allows businesses to use powerful AI tools without fear of catastrophic errors or security breaches.
- Very Brief History
- Founded in 2013 by Bipul Sinha, Arvind Jain, Soham Mazumdar, and Arvind Nithrakashyap, Rubrik initially revolutionized the traditional backup market with a 'converged' appliance. The company evolved from a hardware-centric backup provider to a cloud-native SaaS data security platform. Rubrik went public in April 2024. In June 2025, Rubrik acquired Predibase to accelerate its entry into AI operations and agentic AI adoption, marking a significant strategic pivot to include 'AI Operations' and positioning itself as a leader in 'Cyber Resilience' and 'AI Governance.'
- "Street Stereotype"
- The Street generally views Rubrik as the 'modern, high-growth alternative' to legacy backup vendors like Veritas and Dell. It is often stereotyped as a 'CISO-friendly' backup company that successfully rebranded itself into a pure-play cybersecurity firm. Analysts see it as a 'beat and raise' machine with high execution consistency, though some remain cautious about the intense competition with its primary rival, Cohesity (especially following Cohesity's merger with Veritas).
- Subsidiaries On Linked In*
- Predibase — Acquired by Rubrik in June 2025 to accelerate entry into AI operations and agentic AI adoption.; LinkedIn: predibase
- Customer Sectors & Example Clients
- Rubrik serves a wide range of sectors including financial, retail, trade, transportation, energy, industrial, healthcare and life science, education, technology, media, communications, and public sectors. Specific examples from recent earnings include a large U.K. public sector organization, a Global 2000 insurer, and a large U.S. agricultural organization. Other examples from previous earnings include a Fortune 500 global hospitality company, a leading European financial services firm, a major global logistics provider, a Fortune 500 U.S. financial services firm, and a major U.S. healthcare provider.
- New Customers / Segments They'Re Targeting
- Rubrik is actively targeting new customer segments by expanding beyond its traditional CIO and CTO buying personas to include CISO organizations and identity teams, driven by the rise in identity-based attacks. They are rapidly disrupting the identity protection market with their Identity Recovery and Resilience products. Additionally, with the Rubrik Agent Cloud, they are targeting enterprises looking to accelerate trusted AI transformation by providing an AI operations platform to dynamically monitor, control, and remediate agentic actions, addressing the risks introduced by AI agents. This includes customers adopting platforms like AWS Bedrock and Microsoft Copilot. They are also seeing interest in sovereign infrastructure environments in Europe and the Middle East due to geopolitics and data locality concerns.
- Supply Chain And Sourcing Geographies
- Rubrik primarily offers software and cloud-based services. While all software runs on some powered hardware, the company has stated that it has no real impact from hardware market dynamics, as it is a software company. Customers deploying Rubrik in their data centers are exposed to server costs, but many have long-term contracts with server vendors. For cloud environments, Rubrik does not take ownership of the data infrastructure. The provided information does not contain specific details regarding Rubrik's physical supply chain or the geographical sourcing of its products and components, indicating a less complex physical supply chain compared to hardware-centric businesses.
- Sales Geographies And Expansion Plans
- Rubrik currently sells its products across the Americas and internationally, with revenue from outside the Americas growing 43% to $108 million in Q1 FY2027. The company is investing in its go-to-market strategy, specifically targeting regions and verticals that offer the most attractive return on investment. While no explicit plans for expanding into new, specific geographies beyond its existing global presence were disclosed, the focus is on scaling newer innovations like Identity Resilience and Rubrik Agent Cloud in existing markets. There is also an emerging interest in sovereign infrastructure in Europe and the Middle East, which could lead to growth in non-cloud portions of their business.
- How Key Themes May Help/Hurt
- The "AI '25: Phase 2 Deployment" theme is highly beneficial for Rubrik. The theme emphasizes the acceleration of enterprise adoption of task-specific AI agents, driving tangible ROI and moving from pilots to production. Rubrik Agent Cloud directly addresses the critical need for observability, governance, and security platforms for these agentic AI systems. As autonomous agents generate new security risks, Rubrik's real-time guardrails and "Agent Rewind" capabilities become essential for managing complex AI-driven workflows and mitigating risks like agent hallucinations and compromises. The increasing adoption of hybrid architectures, driven by cost efficiency, data gravity, and regulatory compliance, also plays into Rubrik's strengths, as its platform spans on-premises, sovereign, and cloud environments. The theme's focus on the advancement and monetization of AI governance and security solutions, driven by new regulatory frameworks, directly aligns with Rubrik's offerings and strategic direction. Rubrik's partnership with Anthropic and early access to Claude Mythos research preview further positions them to stay ahead of AI-powered threats. The potential for commoditization of AI deployment stacks could be a minor hurt if it impacts the perceived value of their underlying AI infrastructure, but Rubrik's focus is on the *governance and resilience* of AI agents, which is a higher-level problem. The "ROI anxiety" and "monetization crisis" could hurt if enterprises become hesitant to invest in AI solutions, but Rubrik frames its Agent Cloud as enabling *trusted* AI transformation, which could alleviate such anxiety.
3 Main Long-Term Bull Details
- Comprehensive Cyber Resilience Platform: Rubrik's unique platform converges data, identity, and application context to deliver comprehensive cyber resilience, including protection, security, and cyber recovery. This integrated approach, with its proprietary preemptive recovery engine, provides record-fast recovery from ransomware and identity-based attacks, making it a critical 'system of record of last resort' for enterprises. This is increasingly paramount in the AI era where prevention and detection are no longer enough.
- Rapidly Scaling Identity Resilience Business: The Identity Resilience business is experiencing significant momentum, growing 38% sequentially quarter-over-quarter to reach over $50 million in subscription ARR in Q1 FY2027. It is rapidly disrupting the identity protection market and garnering new budgets from CISOs, extending Rubrik beyond its traditional CIO and CTO buying personas. This expansion into identity protection, coupled with strong SaaS protection, drives comprehensive cyber resilience and maintains a strong subscription net retention rate over 120%.
- Pioneering AI Operations with Rubrik Agent Cloud: Rubrik is defining the emerging enterprise AI market with its unique Rubrik Agent Cloud, which provides dynamic, real-time AI agent controls and guardrails. By addressing the critical risks of agent hallucinations and compromises, Rubrik aims to secure and accelerate the world's AI transformation, positioning itself as a foundational AI operations platform. Early POCs are converting to production deployments, demonstrating strong customer interest.
3 Main Long-Term Bear Details
- FY2027 Revenue Headwinds from 'Material Rights' Normalization: Rubrik faces significant optical headwinds in fiscal year 2027 due to the expiration of 'material rights' accounting benefits from its cloud transformation. This reduction in non-recurring revenue will cause reported GAAP revenue growth to decelerate sharply, potentially leading investors focused solely on top-line revenue to perceive a fundamental slowdown despite strong underlying subscription ARR growth. Material rights are expected to contribute only $17 million to revenue for the full year FY2027, a substantial reduction.
- Early Stage and Intense Competition in AI Operations: The Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) and its AI Operations strategy are still in early stages, with the market being new and crowded. There is execution risk in converting early POCs and beta enthusiasm into meaningful ARR, especially with potential competition from hyperscalers and established cybersecurity firms developing native, integrated tools. The nascent AI governance market is attracting intense competition, including from traditional cybersecurity firms and hyperscalers, who may develop native, integrated tools challenging Rubrik's long-term market share and requiring significant R&D investment.
- Crowded Cyber Resilience Market and Continuous Investment Needs: While Rubrik boasts high win rates, the core cyber resilience market remains highly competitive with both traditional incumbents and new-gen players. Maintaining high growth and a strong subscription net retention rate (approximately 120% in Q1 FY2027) requires continuous significant investment in R&D and aggressive go-to-market strategies. Any execution friction or slowdown in large-enterprise legacy replacements, or increased pricing pressure, could potentially pressure valuation and profitability targets.
- Competitors And Differentiation
- Rubrik competes with both traditional incumbents (e.g., Veritas, Dell) and new-gen vendors in the cyber resilience market. In the identity protection market, they compete with legacy and new-gen identity recovery vendors. For Rubrik Agent Cloud, they face competition from larger companies approaching from observability angles, startups from identity angles, and companies focusing on posture management or shadow IT. Rubrik differentiates itself through a comprehensive, multi-product platform built on a unique architecture that solves problems across data, identity, and AI. Key differentiators include: * **Agentic Cyber Resilience:** Delivering machine-speed cyber recovery and preemptive risk assessment, real-time guardrails, and machine-speed system remediation for the AI era. * **Preemptive Recovery Engine:** Continuously pre-calculates clean points of recovery across data and identity before an attack occurs, enabling record-fast recovery. * **Unified Platform:** Consolidates fragmented environments into a single unified platform across on-premises, sovereign, cloud, SaaS, and identity providers. * **Complementary Network Effects:** Every new product makes others on the platform more powerful, creating an ecosystem where customers gain complete understanding of attack blast radius across data and identity. * **Comprehensive AI Operations Platform (Rubrik Agent Cloud):** Offers dynamic monitoring, control, and remediation of agentic actions, including visibility into agents, real-time guardrails, and a "rewind button" to undo destructive actions. This is powered by their Predibase acquisition, providing a Semantic AI Governance Engine (SAGE). * **Identity Resilience:** Rapidly disrupting the identity protection market with products that protect Entra ID and Okta, extending Rubrik beyond traditional CIO/CTO buying personas to CISOs. * **Software-centric:** As a software company, they are not materially impacted by hardware market dynamics.
- Recent Performance & What The Market'S Focused On
- Rubrik reported a strong Q1 FY2027, exceeding all guided metrics across top line and profitability. Subscription ARR reached $1.57 billion, growing 32% year-over-year, with $103 million in net new subscription ARR, a record for Q1. Subscription revenue was $374 million, growing 41% year-over-year. The subscription NRR remained strong at approximately 120%. Customers with $100,000 or more in subscription ARR reached 2,946, growing 24% year-over-year. The company also made material improvement in subscription ARR contribution margin, up over 500 basis points year-over-year, and generated $74 million in free cash flow. Cloud ARR now represents 89% of subscription ARR. The market is focused on Rubrik's ability to sustain its strong subscription ARR growth and the rapid scaling of its Identity Resilience business, which reached over $50 million in subscription ARR in Q1. Investors are also closely watching the conversion of Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) POCs into meaningful paid customer conversions and its ARR contribution, as this is a new and emerging market. A key area of focus is how investors will perceive the projected FY2027 reported revenue headwinds due to the reduction in 'material rights' revenue, despite strong underlying subscription ARR growth and improving free cash flow. The company has raised its top-line guidance for the rest of the year, fueled by the robust cyber resilience market and the scaling of its Identity Resilience and Rubrik Agent Cloud offerings.
- Revenue Segments And Estimated Mix
- Subscription ARR — Mix: 100% of primary top-line metric; Source: Q1 FY2027 transcript; Trend: Reached $1.57 billion, growing 32% year-over-year. Net new subscription ARR of $103 million, a record for Q1. Full year FY2027 guidance in the range of $1.854 billion to $1.862 billion, reflecting ~27% year-over-year growth.
- Cloud ARR — Mix: 89% of Subscription ARR; Source: Q1 FY2027 transcript; Trend: Up 43% year-over-year. Nearing the end of cloud transition.
- Identity Business Subscription ARR — Mix: Over $50 million (part of Subscription ARR); Source: Q1 FY2027 transcript; Trend: Grew 38% sequentially quarter-over-quarter.
- Subscription Revenue — Mix: n/m; Source: Q1 FY2027 transcript; Trend: Was $374 million, growing 41% year-over-year. Full year FY2027 total revenue guidance in the range of $1.638 billion to $1.648 billion.
- Total Revenue — Mix: n/m; Source: Q1 FY2027 transcript; Trend: Was $387 million, up 39% year-over-year. Primarily benefited from strong ARR growth. Full year FY2027 total revenue guidance in the range of $1.638 billion to $1.648 billion.
- Material Rights (revenue contribution) — Mix: ~2.2% of Q1 Total Revenue; Source: Q1 FY2027 transcript; Trend: Contributed approximately $8.5 million to revenue in Q1, a substantial reduction compared to prior quarter. Expected to contribute $3 million to $4 million in Q2 and approximately $17 million for the full year FY2027, representing a meaningful headwind to reported revenue growth.
- Product Brands
- Rubrik Security Cloud
- Rubrik Agent Cloud
- Predibase
- Rubrik Identity Resilience
- Rubrik Identity Recovery
- Rubrik Preemptive Recovery Engine
- Semantic AI Governance Engine (SAGE)
- Rubrik Agent Rewind
Bull / Bear DetailsRubrik is successfully transforming into a comprehensive cyber resilience and AI operations platform. As of June 5, 2026, the company's record Q1 FY2027 net new
Thesis
Rubrik is successfully transforming into a comprehensive cyber resilience and AI operations platform. As of June 5, 2026, the company's record Q1 FY2027 net new ARR ($103M), strong Identity business growth (>$50M ARR), and Rubrik Agent Cloud converting POCs to production, significantly broaden its TAM. Despite FY2027 accounting-driven revenue headwinds, Rubrik's strong execution, competitive wins, and expanding market position make it a compelling growth play, especially given the heightened AI-driven cyber threats.
Bull case
Rubrik delivered a record Q1 FY2027, exceeding all guided metrics with $1.57 billion in subscription ARR (up 32% year-over-year) and $103 million in net new subscription ARR. The company generated $74 million in free cash flow and raised its full-year FY2027 outlook, demonstrating strong operational leverage and consistent execution in a high-priority market.
The Identity Resilience business continues its rapid scaling, growing 38% sequentially to over $50 million in subscription ARR in Q1. Rubrik is uniquely positioned to capture CISO-led budgets by offering comprehensive cyber resilience across data and identity, leading to competitive wins and market consolidation around its unified platform.
Rubrik is defining the enterprise AI market with Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC), which is now seeing early POCs convert to production deployments. RAC provides unique, comprehensive agent control, real-time guardrails, and "Agent Rewind" capabilities, positioning Rubrik as a critical platform for securing and accelerating AI transformation against agentic threats.
Bear case
Rubrik faces significant optical headwinds in FY2027 due to the expiration of "material rights" accounting benefits from its cloud transformation. This will cause reported GAAP revenue growth to decelerate sharply, with material rights contributing only $17 million to revenue for the full year, potentially leading investors to perceive a fundamental slowdown despite strong underlying subscription ARR growth.
While Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) is converting POCs, its AI Operations strategy remains in early stages. The nascent AI governance market is attracting intense competition from traditional cybersecurity firms and hyperscalers, who may develop native, integrated tools, challenging Rubrik's long-term market share and requiring significant R&D investment to maintain differentiation.
Despite Rubrik's reported competitive wins and strong growth, the core cyber resilience market remains highly competitive. Maintaining high growth and a strong subscription net retention rate (approximately 120%) requires continuous significant R&D investment and aggressive go-to-market spending. Any execution friction or increased pricing pressure could potentially pressure valuation and profitability targets.
Bull / Bear Case
- Bear Case
- Rubrik faces significant optical headwinds in FY2027 due to the expiration of 'material rights' accounting benefits from its cloud transformation, which will cause reported GAAP revenue growth to decelerate sharply, contributing only $17 million to revenue for the full year. This could lead investors to perceive a fundamental slowdown despite strong underlying subscription ARR growth. While Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) is converting POCs, its AI Operations strategy remains in early stages, attracting intense competition from traditional cybersecurity firms and hyperscalers who may develop native, integrated tools. This challenges Rubrik's long-term market share and requires significant R&D investment to maintain differentiation. The core cyber resilience market also remains highly competitive, necessitating continuous R&D and aggressive go-to-market spending to maintain high growth and a strong subscription net retention rate of approximately 120%.
- Bull Case
- Rubrik delivered a record Q1 FY2027, exceeding all guided metrics with $1.57 billion in subscription ARR, growing 32% year-over-year, and generating $103 million in net new subscription ARR. The company also generated $74 million in free cash flow and raised its full-year FY2027 outlook, demonstrating strong operational leverage and consistent execution in a high-priority market. The Identity Resilience business is rapidly scaling, growing 38% sequentially to over $50 million in subscription ARR in Q1, uniquely positioning Rubrik to capture CISO-led budgets. Furthermore, Rubrik is defining the enterprise AI market with Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC), which is seeing early POCs convert to production deployments, offering comprehensive agent control and 'Agent Rewind' capabilities to secure AI transformation against agentic threats.
- More Compelling & Why
- Bear. Rubrik's current Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of approximately 12.1x to 13.3x is significantly above the cybersecurity industry average (3.7x - 12x) and peer average (8.3x), suggesting an elevated valuation that may not fully account for the optical revenue headwinds in FY2027 and intense competition in emerging AI markets. The strongest argument for the bear case is the stretched valuation relative to industry averages, especially for an unprofitable company. My view would flip if Rubrik demonstrates sustained subscription ARR growth significantly above guidance, coupled with clear, accelerating ARR contribution from Rubrik Agent Cloud, and a defined path to profitability that justifies its premium.
Key Factors
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | What To Watch | What It Signals | Where/How To Track | Free Alt Data | Paid Alt Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth in Customers with $1 Million+ Subscription ARR | Growth in large enterprise customers signifies Rubrik's ability to secure significant, strategic deals, validating its platform's value for complex environments and its competitive strength against incumbents. This drives overall ARR and strengthens market position. | Year-over-year growth rate of customers with $1 million or more in Subscription ARR in Q2 FY2027. | Bullish: Year-over-year growth rate of $1M+ ARR customers exceeding 45% in Q2 FY2027. Bearish: Growth rate falling below 35%. | Company earnings calls and press releases for Q2 FY2027 (expected late July/early August 2026). | News releases about large enterprise cybersecurity contracts. | Thinknum: Enterprise software sales job postings for Rubrik; Bloomberg Terminal: Analyst reports tracking large deal wins. |
| Non-GAAP Subscription ARR Contribution Margin | This metric directly reflects Rubrik's operational efficiency and ability to scale profitably. Consistent improvement indicates strong unit economics and effective cost management, which is critical for long-term shareholder value. | Reported non-GAAP Subscription ARR contribution margin for Q2 FY2027. Management guidance for Q2 FY2027 is 11% to 12%. | Bullish: Q2 FY2027 non-GAAP Subscription ARR contribution margin exceeding 12%. Bearish: Q2 FY2027 non-GAAP Subscription ARR contribution margin falling below 11%. | Company earnings calls and press releases for Q2 FY2027 (expected late July/early August 2026). | ||
| Net New Subscription ARR (NNARR) Growth | NNARR is a direct measure of Rubrik's sales execution and market demand. Strong NNARR growth indicates successful customer acquisition and expansion, fueling overall subscription ARR and validating the company's growth strategy. | Reported Net New Subscription ARR for Q2 FY2027. | Bullish: Net New Subscription ARR exceeding $95 million in Q2 FY2027, indicating continued strong momentum. Bearish: Net New Subscription ARR falling below $80 million, suggesting a slowdown in sales execution or demand. | Company earnings calls and press releases for Q2 FY2027 (expected late July/early August 2026). | Thinknum: Rubrik sales job postings (growth/decline). | |
| Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) Production Deployments and Early Monetization | RAC's successful conversion from POCs to production deployments and early monetization validates Rubrik's strategic entry into the AI operations market, demonstrating its ability to capture new revenue streams and secure AI transformation initiatives. | Number of new production deployments for Rubrik Agent Cloud announced in Q2 FY2027, especially named enterprise customers. Any specific ARR contribution details. | Bullish: Announcement of 2+ new named enterprise customers moving to production with RAC in Q2 FY2027, or any specific early ARR contribution mentioned. Bearish: No new named production deployments or lack of any quantitative update on RAC adoption. | Company earnings calls, press releases, and investor presentations for Q2 FY2027 (expected late July/early August 2026). Analyst Day on June 10, 2026, could also provide updates. | Google Trends: "Rubrik Agent Cloud" search volume, "AI governance platform" search volume. Industry news on AI security/governance adoption. | Thinknum: AI security/governance job postings mentioning Rubrik; Web traffic analysis for Rubrik Agent Cloud product pages. |
| Identity Resilience Business Subscription ARR Growth and Total ARR | Rapid growth in Identity ARR demonstrates Rubrik's successful expansion beyond core data protection into CISO-led budgets, validating its multi-product platform strategy and broadening its total addressable market. This is crucial for sustaining high growth and net retention. | Sequential quarter-over-quarter growth rate of Identity Subscription ARR. Total Identity Subscription ARR in Q2 FY2027. | Bullish: Identity Subscription ARR continuing to grow sequentially by 30%+ in Q2 FY2027, or exceeding $65 million in total Identity ARR. Bearish: Sequential growth decelerating below 20% or total Identity ARR falling below $55 million. | Company earnings calls and press releases for Q2 FY2027 (expected late July/early August 2026). | Industry reports on identity security market growth, news articles on identity-based attacks. | Thinknum: Identity security job postings growth; Gartner/IDC: Identity and Access Management (IAM) market reports. |
Key Reported Metrics
| Metric | Why It Matters | Last Period |
|---|---|---|
| Subscription ARR Growth | This is Rubrik's primary top-line metric, filtering out accounting noise from material rights. Strong growth validates market leadership and justifies valuation, especially with anticipated FY2027 revenue headwinds. | 32% |
| Subscription Revenue Growth | While Subscription ARR is the primary metric, strong subscription revenue growth demonstrates the company's ability to convert ARR into recognized revenue, reflecting successful execution and customer adoption of its cloud and software offerings. | 41% |
| Free Cash Flow Growth | This metric demonstrates Rubrik's operational leverage and profitability at scale. Continued strong free cash flow generation is crucial for funding strategic investments and validating the company's long-term financial health. | 124.2% |
Key QuestionsCan Rubrik sustain its strong net new subscription ARR momentum and the rapid scaling of its Identity Resilience business, which reached over $50 million in Q1
Can Rubrik sustain its strong net new subscription ARR momentum and the rapid scaling of its Identity Resilience business, which reached over $50 million in Q1 FY2027, to solidify its position as a core security platform beyond backup and continue exceeding its raised FY2027 outlook?
- Question 2
Will Rubrik Agent Cloud's (RAC) early production deployments, including with a U.S. financial services firm, translate into meaningful and accelerating ARR contribution in Q2 FY2027, validating its market leadership in AI operations and agentic cyber resilience?
- Question 3
Will investors look past the projected FY2027 reported revenue headwinds, caused by the reduction in 'material rights' revenue to $3-4 million in Q2, if Subscription ARR growth remains strong and free cash flow continues to improve, validating Rubrik's long-term profitability and underlying business momentum?
Rerating Thresholds
| Metric | What'S Needed For Rerating | Why It Matters | Earnings Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud ARR Growth | For Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) to rerate higher, its Cloud ARR Growth metric needs to at least re-accelerate to or exceed its Q3 FY2026 rate of 53% year-over-year. Ideally, it should demonstrate re-acceleration towards or exceeding the Q1/Q2 FY2026 rates of 57% to 60% year-over-year, significantly surpassing the current 48% reported in Q4 FY2026. This strong performance in Cloud ARR, which constitutes 88% of total subscription ARR, should contribute to exceeding the full-year FY2026 subscription ARR guidance and analyst expectations for overall Subscription ARR growth to exceed 30% for FY2027. | Robust Cloud ARR growth is crucial as it validates Rubrik's successful shift to cloud-native security and its ability to displace legacy vendors. This performance is essential for justifying Rubrik's premium valuation, maintaining high net retention rates, and demonstrating that underlying business momentum remains strong despite anticipated FY2027 accounting-driven revenue headwinds. | 2026-06-04 |
| Normalized Total Revenue Growth | For Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) to rerate higher, its Normalized Total Revenue Growth metric needs to exceed the company's full-year fiscal year 2027 guidance of 27% to 28%. Ideally, it would need to demonstrate sustained growth in the mid-30s (e.g., 35% or higher) for FY2027, or significantly beat the Q1 FY2027 normalized growth estimates, which are around 36% to 37%. | Exceeding the normalized growth guidance is crucial as it demonstrates Rubrik's core business is robustly expanding despite the anticipated 'material rights' accounting headwinds in FY2027. This would validate the strength of its cyber resilience and AI operations platform, alleviating investor concerns about an optical slowdown and justifying a higher valuation. | 2026-06-04 |
| Subscription ARR Growth | Rubrik's Subscription ARR Growth needs to demonstrate a strong beat on its Q1 FY2027 performance and/or an upward revision to its full-year FY2027 guidance. Specifically, for a higher rerating, the company would need to guide for or achieve a full-year fiscal year 2027 Subscription ARR growth rate of 30% or more, significantly exceeding its current guidance of 25-26%. This would signal that the anticipated deceleration is less pronounced than expected and that the company is maintaining stronger momentum. | Achieving a Subscription ARR growth rate of 30% or more for FY2027 would validate Rubrik's ability to sustain robust growth despite increasing scale and optical revenue headwinds from 'material rights' normalization. This performance would reinforce the bull thesis of its successful transformation into a multi-product cyber resilience and AI operations platform, justifying a premium valuation and signaling continued market leadership and effective expansion into new, high-growth areas. | 2026-06-04 |
Earnings Transcript Summary
· 2027Q1 Earnings Call
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. **Leading in Cyber Resilience for the AI Era**: Management is intensely focused on establishing Rubrik as the leader in 'agentic cyber resilience,' emphasizing that prevention and detection are no longer enough against AI-powered attacks like Mythos. They highlight their unique Preemptive Recovery Engine for machine-speed recovery and their partnership with Anthropic's Project Glasswing to stay ahead of new cyber risks. 2. **Expanding into Identity Resilience and AI Operations**: Rubrik is prioritizing the growth of its Identity business, which reached over $50 million in subscription ARR, and the Rubrik Agent Cloud for trusted AI transformation. They see these as critical for solving consequential problems across data, identity, and AI, and for enabling customers to safely adopt AI agents. 3. **Delivering Strong Financial Performance and Operational Leverage**: Management is focused on exceeding guided metrics, achieving record Q1 results, and demonstrating material improvement in subscription ARR contribution margin and free cash flow. They are committed to balancing growth with improved efficiency and making strategic investments in R&D and go-to-market efforts for high ROI. | The overall takeaway of the call was that Rubrik had a strong start to fiscal year 2027, exceeding all guided metrics and raising its full-year outlook. The company is confidently positioning itself as a leader in 'agentic cyber resilience' in an era where AI-powered attacks make traditional prevention and detection insufficient. Management highlighted the rapid growth of its Identity business and the early traction of Rubrik Agent Cloud as key drivers. The tone was highly confident, bullish, and optimistic, emphasizing Rubrik's unique platform, competitive wins, and significant market opportunity at the convergence of data, identity, and AI. | Subscription ARR: 34% year over year (Q4 FY2026). Subscription revenue: 50% year over year (Q4 FY2026). Total revenue: 46% year over year (Q4 FY2026). Cloud ARR: 48% year over year (Q4 FY2026). Customers with $100,000 or more in subscription ARR: 25% year-over-year (Q4 FY2026). | 1. **Impact of Hardware Market Dynamics**: Analysts questioned how hardware market dynamics, including rising costs, might impact customer buying behavior and Rubrik's business. Management responded that Rubrik is a software company with no material impact from hardware dynamics, as customers either have long-term contracts with server vendors or consume cloud services. They also noted that enterprise data protection (where hardware might be a factor) is a relatively smaller part of their business now, with a comprehensive solution across cloud, SaaS, and identity. 2. **Evolution of Cyber Resilience with Agentic AI**: Analysts asked if cyber resilience would become a bigger line item and if Rubrik's role would shift from an 'insurance policy' to something more central as enterprises go fully agentic. Management stated that cybersecurity strategy has squarely moved to cyber resilience, accelerated by AI models like Mythos making detection near impossible. They believe Rubrik's preemptive recovery engine is critical for 'AI speed' recovery and that cyber resilience is now the most fundamental cybersecurity strategy for the AI era, making Rubrik more central to how companies operate. 3. **Rubrik's Right to Win as the AI Control Plane**: Analysts pressed on why Rubrik stands to be a leader in the AI control plane category against vendors like ServiceNow, which argue agentic control is a CMDB problem. Management asserted that comprehensive agentic security and resilience requires a platform that delivers monitoring, real-time guardrails, and 'Agent Rewind' (undoing undesirable actions), which Rubrik provides end-to-end. They highlighted their unique comprehensive solution, unmatched by other vendors, as the reason for winning deals. | Subscription ARR: 32% year-over-year. Subscription revenue: 41% year-over-year. Total revenue: 39% year-over-year. Cloud ARR: 43% year-over-year. Customers with $100,000 or more in subscription ARR: 24% year-over-year. |
· 2026Q4 Earnings Call
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. **Accelerating Business Growth and Profitability**: Management emphasized accelerating net new subscription ARR growth to a record $115 million and generating tremendous free cash flow of $238 million for the full fiscal year, indicating a focus on building a long-term, highly profitable growth business. 2. **Winning the Cyber Resilience Market**: Rubrik is focused on dominating the cyber resilience market across data and identity, highlighting competitive win rates crossing 90% in Q4 and the rapid disruption of the identity protection market. 3. **Defining the Enterprise AI Market**: Management is committed to defining the enterprise AI market with its unique Rubrik Agent Cloud solution, which provides agent control and guardrails to accelerate enterprise AI transformation while mitigating risks. | The overall takeaway of the call was that Rubrik delivered an exceptionally strong fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026, significantly exceeding expectations with record net new subscription ARR and tremendous free cash flow. The company is demonstrating strong momentum in the cyber resilience market, particularly with rapid growth in its identity business, and is strategically positioning itself as a pioneer in the emerging AI operations market with Rubrik Agent Cloud. Management expressed a highly confident, bullish, and optimistic tone, emphasizing continued innovation, market leadership, and a clear path to long-term profitable growth, despite anticipating some accounting-driven revenue headwinds in fiscal year 2027. | Q3 FY2026 Subscription ARR: 34% year over year; Q3 FY2026 Subscription Revenue: 52% year over year; Q3 FY2026 Total Revenue: 48% year over year; Q3 FY2026 Cloud ARR: 53% year over year. | 1. **Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) Customer Use Cases**: Analysts inquired about what Fortune 500 and AI startup customers are trying to solve with Agent Cloud and whether the early pull is more around monitoring/guardrails or remediate/rewind. Management responded that customers are first focused on understanding existing agents (sanctioned and shadow IT), then monitoring and observability, and then real-time dynamic guardrails. The 'rewind' piece is considered a 'day-two problem' once agents are fully operationalized at scale. 2. **Sovereign Cloud Opportunity**: Analysts asked about the customer impetus for Rubrik Sovereign Cloud and the incremental TAM. Management explained that geopolitics are driving countries to contain supply chains and economic infrastructure within their borders, leading to demand for sovereign government infrastructure and public cloud with additional controls. AI is adding a new angle, but the TAM is still evolving and it's unclear if it's entirely net new. 3. **AI's Impact on Rubrik's Core Business**: Analysts questioned if AI could automate data recovery and resilience over time, potentially impacting Rubrik's core business value proposition. Management asserted that Rubrik is a complex, enterprise-scale software built over a dozen years with extensive customer feedback, making it not something an LLM can easily solve. They emphasized Rubrik as the 'system of record of last resort' for data and identity, and that its importance only grows with AI transformation due to increased data, cyber threats, and attack surface areas. | Subscription ARR: 34% year over year; Subscription revenue: 50% year over year; Total revenue: 46% year over year; Cloud ARR: 48% year over year. |
· 2026Q3 Earnings Call
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. **Becoming the Security and AI Operations Company**: Management is focused on leading Rubrik into its next era as 'the security and AI operations company,' emphasizing both cyber resilience and accelerating enterprise AI transformation with new offerings like Rubrik Agent Cloud. 2. **Expanding Cyber Resilience across Data and Identity**: A key focus is on winning the vast cyber resilience market by continuously adding new solutions for data protection (data center, cloud, SaaS) and significantly growing the Identity business (Identity Recovery, Identity Resilience) to provide comprehensive risk and remediation. 3. **Driving Operational Leverage and Profitability**: Management highlighted the achievement of record free cash flow of $77 million and a material improvement of approximately 1,400 basis points year-over-year in subscription ARR contribution margin, demonstrating a focus on balancing growth with improved efficiency and profitability. | The overall takeaway of the call was that Rubrik delivered an 'exceptional' and 'best ever' third quarter, marked by record net new subscription ARR and significant free cash flow generation, exceeding all guided metrics. The company is successfully expanding its platform into Identity Resilience, which has seen rapid adoption, and strategically positioning itself in the emerging AI Operations market with the Rubrik Agent Cloud. Management expressed high confidence in the company's leadership, innovation, and execution, raising the full-year outlook despite anticipated accounting-driven revenue headwinds in fiscal year 2027. The tone was highly confident, bullish, and optimistic. | Q2 FY26 Y/Y Growth: Subscription Revenue: +50%; Total Revenue: +35%; Subscription ARR: +40%; Cloud ARR: +80%. | 1. **Identity Business Contribution**: Analysts inquired about how additive the identity business is to deals and whether it replaces existing tools or creates new budget. Management responded that Identity is completely additive, targets a net new buyer (CISO organization, IM persona), and is either replacing legacy/new-gen identity recovery vendors or filling white space, with 40% of new identity customers being net new to Rubrik. 2. **Acceleration in Legacy Replacements**: Analysts asked about the drivers behind the accelerated bookings from legacy replacements. Management attributed this to both the need for modernization ahead of AI transformation and the growing recognition by CIOs/CISOs of the inevitability of cyber attacks, with Rubrik's unique preemptive recovery engine offering superior speed of recovery. 3. **Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) and AI Agent Market**: Analysts pressed on Rubrik's positioning, competitive landscape, monetization, and General Availability (GA) timing for Rubrik Agent Cloud. Management explained Rubrik's natural fit due to its core platform combining data, identity, and applications, which are central to AI. RAC provides monitoring, governance, and remediation (Agent Rewind) for operationalizing agents, not building them. It is currently in beta with strong early feedback, and they anticipate it will be a separate product suite, with GA expected 'not too far in the future.' | Subscription ARR: +34% y/y ($1.35 billion). Subscription Revenue: +52% y/y ($336 million). Total Revenue: +48% y/y ($350 million). Cloud ARR: +53% y/y ($1.17 billion). |
Transcript Tidbits
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubrik's Identity business grew 38% sequentially quarter-over-quarter to reach over $50 million in subscription ARR in Q1, extending Rubrik beyond traditional CIO and CTO buying personas. Rubrik Agent Cloud is seeing early POCs convert to production deployments. There is also an emerging interest in Europe and Middle Eastern countries around sovereign infrastructure, which could increase the non-cloud portion of the business. | Rubrik continues to grow while the competition has stalled. A large U.K. public sector organization chose Rubrik to fully displace a decade-long legacy incumbent, outcompeting several legacy and new gen vendors. A Global 2000 insurer chose Rubrik to displace a legacy incumbent and native cloud backup. Rubrik's depth and breadth of enterprise context is believed to be unmatched by other solutions. Rubrik offers the most comprehensive solution for agentic security, including monitoring, guardrail, real-time security, and Agent Rewind, unmatched by any other vendor. Rubrik delivered the best result in the cybersecurity industry, with $103 million net new ARR, unmatched by any company in the cybersecurity industry. | The industry is in a new era of cybersecurity where AI agents are attacking, intruding, breaching, and encrypting at machine speed. Mythos has proven that attack detection is near impossible, making cyber resilience the most fundamental cybersecurity requirement for the AI era. AI agents are increasingly running business processes, assuming identities, accessing sensitive data, and taking autonomous action, potentially inflicting 10x more damage in 1/10 of the time if compromised. Prevention and detection are no longer enough; preemptive risk assessment, real-time guardrail, and machine speed system remediation (agentic cyber resilience) are now required. The cyber resilience market is consolidating around platforms, not point solutions. Identity-based attacks have increased the need to protect both data and identity simultaneously. Cybersecurity is now the #1 business risk for almost every business. | Rubrik aims to continue being the answer to helping institutions stay ahead in cybersecurity. The company recently joined Anthropic's Project Glasswing and received early access to the Claude Mythos research preview to better serve customers when cyber breaches occur. Rubrik is establishing itself as the data and identity infrastructure platform for the AI era. The company plans to continue making operational investments in R&D to accelerate innovation in data, security, and AI. Investments will also be made in go-to-market strategies, specifically targeting regions and verticals with attractive ROI, and scaling newer innovations like Identity Resilience and Rubrik Agent Cloud. Rubrik's vision is for continuous attacks to be met with continuous recovery at AI speed. The company is exploring both organic and inorganic opportunities to accelerate its roadmap. | Phase | The emergence of sovereign infrastructure requirements in Europe and Middle Eastern countries due to geopolitics, data locality, and sovereignty concerns. | We are off to a strong start to fiscal 2027 with a record Q1. We have once again exceeded all guided metrics across top line and profitability. Subscription ARR reached $1.57 billion, growing 32% year-over-year. We generated $74 million in free cash flow this quarter. Rubrik is and will continue to be the answer to helping institutions stay ahead. We continue to grow while the competition has stalled. Our Identity business grew 38% in sequentially quarter-over-quarter to reach over 50 million in subscription ARR in Q1. In just one quarter of selling, we are already seeing early POCs convert to production deployments. We are extremely optimistic about the future of Rubrik. We had a strong Q1, exceeding all of our guided metrics. We added $103 million in net new subscription ARR, a record for Q1. Customers with subscription ARR of $1 million or more grew over 50%. We delivered the best result in the cybersecurity industry. | AI agents are attacking us. These autonomous agents can intrude, breach and encrypt at machine speed. Mythos has proven that attack detection is near impossible. Once compromised, these agents can potentially inflict 10x more damage in 1/10 of the time. While agents promise 100x more productivity, they also introduce 100x more risk. If agent get compromised or hallucinate, then you need a rewind button to undue destructive actions. | Rubrik plans to invest in its go-to-market strategy, specifically targeting regions and verticals that offer the most attractive ROI. The company is opportunistic in terms of ROI and is looking to invest to increase sales capacity in markets where high ROI is observed. |
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubrik is expanding its market through its identity business, which now protects Okta Identity, Active Directory, and Entra ID, making it the only identity recovery platform to cover these. The SaaS protection business had a strong Q4, with over 50% of M365 bookings attached to their identity solution. Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) is now generally available, accelerating AI adoption with agent guardrail controls and targeting the enterprise AI transformation market. The company is also exploring the emerging sovereign cloud market, driven by geopolitics and the desire for countries to contain supply chains and economic infrastructure within their own borders, including AI infrastructure. | Rubrik's competitive win rates crossed 90% in Q4, indicating strong performance against competitors. The company is "comprehensively winning against the competition" and accelerating growth while competition has stalled. Rubrik secured a major win with a Fortune 500 global hospitality company, displacing a deeply entrenched legacy provider, a cloud-native backup solution, and outcompeting several next-generation vendors. A leading European financial services firm selected Rubrik, Inc., replacing a multi-decade legacy incumbent. A major global logistics provider displaced an incumbent new-gen competitor due to Rubrik's superior identity coverage and faster recovery time. In the new agent control and governance market, Rubrik believes it has a unique solution due to its acquisition of Predibase and its AI model engineering capabilities, differentiating itself from traditional cybersecurity companies that rely on rule-based platforms. | Enterprise AI and agentic work disruptions are creating significant opportunities but also unprecedented risks. AI agents, while promising 100 times more productivity, introduce 100 times more risk, as compromised agents can perform 10 times more damage in one-tenth of the time. Cyber attackers are actively deploying AI to breach businesses and governments, making the world more dangerous. There is a clear trend towards enterprise agentic AI transformation, requiring solutions for dynamic monitoring, control, and remediation of agentic actions. Geopolitics is driving the emergence of sovereign cloud requirements, where countries want IT infrastructure and data contained within their own borders, including for AI infrastructure. Data is considered the foundation of AI, and Rubrik's importance grows with the growth of AI transformation. | Rubrik's mission is to secure and accelerate the world's AI transformation. The company is focused on advancing this mission and defining the enterprise AI market with its unique agent control and guardrail solution. Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) is now generally available, with POCs ongoing across early AI adopters and Fortune 500 companies, marking the early innings of a multi-year effort to scale this suite. The company plans to continue making operational investments in R&D to accelerate innovation in data, security, and AI, and in go-to-market strategies for Identity Resilience, platform, and Rubrik Agent Cloud. Rubrik aims to build a long-term company by continuously stacking S-curves, always looking ahead to serve customers as they adopt newer technologies. An inaugural investor day will be held on June 10 during the Forward user conference. | Phase | Sovereign cloud/data sovereignty is an emerging architectural shift driven by geopolitics, requiring modernization of infrastructure. The need for a comprehensive AI operations platform that can dynamically monitor, control, and remediate agentic actions is a new and critical area. | "We ended the year that significantly exceeded our expectations." "A spectacular Q4." "Accelerating growth while improving margins and growing free cash flow at our scale is not only very impressive, but a rare combination." "Our competitive win rates have crossed 90% in Q4." "Identity was the fastest-growing product in the history of our company." "Rubrik, Inc.'s importance only grows with the growth of AI and AI transformation of the enterprise." | "If compromised, they can perform 10 times more damage in one-tenth of the time." "AI has made the world more dangerous." "While agents promise 100 times more productivity, they also introduce 100 times more risk." "The cascading impact of agent hallucinations, as well as cyber compromise, will result in catastrophic damage for enterprises." | Kiran Kumar Choudary stated, "We plan to continue making operational investments across two key areas. First, we will continue to invest in R&D to accelerate innovation... Second, we will invest in our go-to-market, specifically targeting regions and verticals that offer the most attractive ROI." This implies continued hiring in R&D and sales/go-to-market functions to support innovation and market expansion. |
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubrik is aggressively expanding into the Identity and AI Operations markets. The Identity business reached $20 million in subscription ARR within three quarters of GA, with 40% of those customers being net new to the company. The launch of Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) targets the emerging 'agentic AI' lifecycle, providing a control layer for AI agents. Additionally, the company expanded its cloud protection to include DevOps environments like Azure DevOps and GitHub. | Management noted that bookings from legacy replacements accelerated year-over-year, surpassing growth rates from the first half of the year. Rubrik reported outcompeting both 'legacy' and 'new gen' backup vendors in significant deals, including a major Asian bank and a Fortune 250 firm. The company claims a 30% lower TCO compared to native cloud backup solutions for large-scale workloads. | The industry is shifting toward an 'assume breach' mentality, where enterprises prioritize rapid remediation and recovery over simple prevention. AI is viewed as a double-edged sword: it enables threat actors to inflict '10x more damage in 1/10 of the time,' while also offering a '100x opportunity' for enterprise transformation. There is a growing need for guardrails to monitor and contain 'superhuman' AI agents. | Rubrik is positioning itself as a 'security and AI operations company.' Future growth is centered on 'Agentic ERP'—the ability to monitor, govern, and remediate AI agents across platforms like AWS Bedrock and Microsoft Copilot Studio. While FY27 will face revenue growth headwinds due to the expiration of 'material rights' accounting benefits, the company expects continued growth in subscription ARR and modest improvements in free cash flow. | Phase | The convergence of Data Security Posture Management (DSPM) and Identity Resilience is a major emerging theme, as organizations realize they cannot manage data risk without understanding identity context. | "This quarter has been our best ever."; "Subscription ARR reached $1.35 billion, growing 34% year-over-year."; "Net new subscription ARR reached a record $94 million."; "Identity business... reaching about $20 million in subscription ARR." | "AI potentially enabling threat actors to inflict 10x more damage in 1/10 of the time."; "Reduction in material rights revenue will represent a headwind to our reported revenue growth [in FY27]." |
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubrik is expanding into the Identity and AI Operations markets, with the Identity business reaching $20 million in subscription ARR within three quarters of general availability, and 40% of those customers being net new to the company. Identity is seen as 'completely additive to the deal' and targets the CISO organization, a net new buyer for Rubrik. The company launched Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) for AI resilience and accelerated AI agent adoption, and expanded cloud protection to include DevOps environments like Azure DevOps and GitHub. Identity Recovery now supports Okta, Active Directory, and Entra ID recovery, and a higher tier solution, Rubrik Identity Resilience, was launched. | Rubrik is accelerating legacy replacements, outcompeting both 'legacy' and 'new gen' backup vendors in significant deals, including a major Asian bank and a Fortune 250 firm. The company claims its unique architecture consistently outperforms competitors and offers a 30% lower TCO compared to native cloud backup solutions for large-scale workloads. Rubrik Identity Recovery is highlighted as the 'only identity recovery solution to support Okta, Active Directory and Entra ID recovery.' | The industry is characterized by an 'assume breach mentality,' where enterprises prioritize rapid remediation and recovery. AI is seen as both a significant risk, enabling threat actors to inflict '10x more damage in 1/10 of the time,' and a '100x opportunity' for enterprise transformation. There is a growing need for 'guardrails to monitor and contain' 'superhuman' AI agents. Cyber attacks are considered 'inevitable,' and there is increased awareness of the importance of identity systems due to evolving threats. Cyber insurance requirements are tightening, and ransomware costs are increasing, driving demand for comprehensive cyber resilience. | Rubrik's mission is to become 'the security and AI operations company.' The company plans to expand capabilities and investments in Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) to enable confident enterprise AI transformation and agentic work adoption, with RAC expected to go GA 'not too far in the future.' For fiscal year 2027, Rubrik expects 'modest improvement in our subscription ARR contribution margin and modestly higher free cash flow,' though reported revenue growth will face 'headwinds' due to the reduction in 'material rights' revenue, with normalized revenue growth projected to be ahead of subscription ARR growth. The long-term ambition is to 'build the next 100-year-plus company.' | Phase | The convergence of Data Security Posture Management (DSPM) and Identity Resilience is a major emerging theme, as organizations realize the necessity of understanding both data and identity risk for complete cyber resilience. The concept of an 'Agentic ERP' for managing AI agents is also emerging. | This quarter has been our best ever. Subscription ARR reached $1.35 billion, growing 34% year-over-year. Net new subscription ARR reached a record $94 million. Identity business... reaching about $20 million in subscription ARR. We once again exceeded all guided metrics across top line and profitability. | AI potentially enabling threat actors to inflict 10x more damage in 1/10 of the time. Reduction in material rights revenue will represent a headwind to our reported revenue growth [in FY27]. AI presents 100x more risk. Organizations don't yet have the guardrails to monitor and contain what they do [with AI agents]. |
Earnings ResultsRubrik reported 50% year-over-year growth in Subscription Revenue, which exceeded the rerating trigger of 40% or more. This strong performance was highlighted b
| Metric | Prior Quarter | Rerating Trigger | Actual Reported | Hit Target? | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subscription Revenue | 52% | For Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) to rerate higher, its Subscription Revenue metric needs to demonstrate a year-over-year growth rate of 40% or more in its upcoming Q4 FY2026 earnings report. This would significantly exceed the analyst consensus for total revenue growth of approximately 32.6% for the quarter, and the company's own Q4 total revenue guidance of 33% year-over-year growth (or 30% normalized for material rights). Additionally, strong full-year FY2027 Subscription ARR guidance that maintains or exceeds 25% growth, despite the anticipated 'material rights' accounting headwinds, would be crucial. | $365,000,000 (50% y/y growth) | Yes | Rubrik reported 50% year-over-year growth in Subscription Revenue, which exceeded the rerating trigger of 40% or more. This strong performance was highlighted by management as exceeding expectations and all guided metrics, signaling robust underlying demand for the company's platform and effective conversion of ARR into GAAP revenue. |
| Cloud ARR | 53% | For Rubrik (RBRK) stock to rerate higher, Cloud ARR growth needs to at least maintain its Q3 FY2026 rate of 53% year-over-year, and ideally demonstrate re-acceleration towards or exceeding the Q1/Q2 FY2026 rates of 60% and 57% respectively. This strong performance in Cloud ARR, which constitutes 87% of total subscription ARR, should contribute to exceeding the full-year FY2026 subscription ARR guidance of $1.439 billion to $1.443 billion. Additionally, a significant beat on Net New Subscription ARR, surpassing the $100 million target for Q4 FY2026, would be a key indicator of robust cloud adoption and overall business momentum. | $1,290,000,000 (48% y/y growth) | No | Cloud ARR grew 48% year-over-year, which was a deceleration from the prior quarter's 53% and did not meet the rerating trigger's requirement to at least maintain or re-accelerate growth. Despite this specific miss, the overall earnings call tone was very positive, suggesting other strong metrics (like Subscription ARR and Net New Subscription ARR) mitigated the impact of this deceleration. |
| Subscription ARR | 34% | For Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) to rerate higher, its Subscription ARR growth rate needs to demonstrate continued acceleration or a significant beat on current expectations. Specifically, the company would likely need to report a full-year fiscal year 2026 Subscription ARR growth rate of 33% or higher, exceeding its own guidance of approximately 32%. Additionally, Q4 fiscal year 2026 Net New Subscription ARR should exceed the record $94 million achieved in Q3, ideally surpassing $100 million. Crucially, the company's fiscal year 2027 Subscription ARR guidance needs to be strong, ideally at 30% or more, to effectively de-risk the anticipated revenue headwinds from the expiration of 'material rights' accounting benefits. | $1,460,000,000 (34% y/y growth); Net New Subscription ARR: $115,000,000; FY2027 Subscription ARR Guidance: 25% to 26% y/y growth | Partially | Rubrik achieved 34% y/y Subscription ARR growth for FY2026, exceeding the 33% target. Net New Subscription ARR for Q4 was a record $115 million, significantly surpassing the $100 million ideal target. However, the FY2027 Subscription ARR guidance of 25-26% growth fell short of the 'ideally at 30% or more' threshold. The strong current performance, particularly the record net new ARR, contributed to a very bullish management tone, despite the FY2027 guidance being below the ideal rerating trigger for that specific component. |
| Cloud ARR Growth | 48% y/y | For Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) to rerate higher, its Cloud ARR Growth metric needs to at least re-accelerate to or exceed its Q3 FY2026 rate of 53% year-over-year. Ideally, it should demonstrate re-acceleration towards or exceeding the Q1/Q2 FY2026 rates of 57% to 60% year-over-year, significantly surpassing the current 48% reported in Q4 FY2026. This strong performance in Cloud ARR, which constitutes 88% of total subscription ARR, should contribute to exceeding the full-year FY2026 subscription ARR guidance and analyst expectations for overall Subscription ARR growth to exceed 30% for FY2027. | 43% year-over-year | No | Cloud ARR grew 43% year-over-year in Q1 FY2027, which is a deceleration from the prior quarter's 48% and falls short of the rerating trigger of 53% or higher. The company noted that it is nearing the end of its cloud transition, with Cloud ARR now representing 89% of subscription ARR. Management also stated that if migrations are backed out, Cloud ARR grew slightly faster than subscription ARR. |
| Normalized Total Revenue Growth | 46% y/y | For Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) to rerate higher, its Normalized Total Revenue Growth metric needs to exceed the company's full-year fiscal year 2027 guidance of 27% to 28%. Ideally, it would need to demonstrate sustained growth in the mid-30s (e.g., 35% or higher) for FY2027, or significantly beat the Q1 FY2027 normalized growth estimates, which are around 36% to 37%. | 43% (normalized year-over-year growth) | Yes | Rubrik reported that revenue normalized for material rights increased 43% year-over-year in Q1 FY2027. This performance exceeded the Q1 FY2027 normalized growth estimates of 36% to 37%, indicating strong underlying business expansion despite anticipated accounting headwinds from material rights. |
| Subscription ARR Growth | 32% | Rubrik's Subscription ARR Growth needs to demonstrate a strong beat on its Q1 FY2027 performance and/or an upward revision to its full-year FY2027 guidance. Specifically, for a higher rerating, the company would need to guide for or achieve a full-year fiscal year 2027 Subscription ARR growth rate of 30% or more, significantly exceeding its current guidance of 25-26%. This would signal that the anticipated deceleration is less pronounced than expected and that the company is maintaining stronger momentum. | $1.57 billion (32% year-over-year growth) | Partially | Subscription ARR reached $1.57 billion, growing 32% year-over-year in Q1 FY2027. The company also added a record $103 million in net new subscription ARR for the quarter. While the 32% Q1 growth is strong and exceeds the 30% threshold for a higher rerating, the full-year fiscal year 2027 Subscription ARR guidance was raised to approximately 27% year-over-year growth, which, while an upward revision, did not reach the 30% or more target for a higher rerating. |
Notes
| Date | Comment | Comment Type | Comment Sentiment | Link | IS CHANGE | Price Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Rubrik reported a record Q1 FY2027, exceeding all guided metrics with 32% YoY subscription ARR growth and strong free cash flow. They raised their full-year outlook, driven by robust Identity business growth and early Rubrik Agent Cloud traction in "agentic cyber resilience." Despite strong results and bullish messaging, the market showed caution, likely due to anticipated FY2027 revenue headwinds from material rights. | Earnings Transcript | Neutral | False | N/A |
Upcoming Events
| Catalyst ID | Estimated Timing | Estimated Date Start | Estimated Date End | Catalyst | Why It Matters | Ticker Or Theme Specific | Transcript Date | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBRK_050c80e9 | not too far in the future | 2026-03-08 | 2026-07-31 | Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) moving from beta to General Availability (GA). This product suite enables enterprises to deploy AI agents safely and confidently at scale, offering agent monitoring, governance, and remediation capabilities. | Successful GA and adoption of RAC would validate Rubrik's AI Operations thesis, open a new revenue stream, and potentially capture a significant share of the emerging AI governance market, impacting future growth and valuation. | Ticker | 2025-12-04 | earnings_transcript |
| RBRK_9d085dba | during the Q4 FY2026 call (March 2026) | 2026-03-08 | 2026-03-31 | Rubrik's FY2027 revenue and Subscription ARR guidance, which will include the impact of a "substantial reduction in material rights revenue" creating a "headwind to our reported revenue growth." | This guidance will clarify the financial impact of the cloud transformation's accounting dynamics. Investors will assess if strong Subscription ARR growth can offset reported revenue deceleration and maintain confidence in the company's underlying business performance. | Ticker | 2025-12-04 | earnings_transcript |
| RBRK_c24f499e | coming quarters and years | 2026-05-01 | 2027-01-31 | Updates on Rubrik Agent Cloud (RAC) customer adoption, successful Proof-of-Concepts (POCs) conversions, and early monetization. | RAC is a new product suite targeting the emerging AI Operations market. Strong traction would validate Rubrik's AI strategy, expand its addressable market, and contribute to future revenue growth, positively impacting valuation and investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript |
| RBRK_0836a750 | June 10 | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-10 | Rubrik's inaugural Investor Day during the Forward user conference in Las Vegas. | This event provides an opportunity for management to articulate its long-term vision, product roadmap (especially for Rubrik Agent Cloud), and potentially updated financial targets, which could significantly influence investor perception and valuation. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript |
| RBRK_1351913b | Analyst Day on June 10 in Las Vegas | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-10 | Rubrik's Analyst Day at its Forward user conference, where management will 'unpack our vision for agenetic cyber resilience'. | This event could provide new details on Rubrik's strategy, product roadmap (especially for Rubrik Agent Cloud and Identity Resilience), and potentially updated long-term financial targets. Positive announcements could boost investor sentiment and valuation, while a lack of significant new information or disappointing outlook could have a negative impact. | Ticker | 2026-06-04 | earnings_transcript |