NGL

T3

NGL Energy Partners LP

Next est. report · AMC

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Overview

NGL Energy Partners LP is a midstream energy company primarily providing water solutions for oil and natural gas producers, handling produced water disposal, tr

NGL Energy Partners LP is a midstream energy company primarily providing water solutions for oil and natural gas producers, handling produced water disposal, treatment, and recycling. This segment generates about 91% of its EBITDA, serving mainly large investment-grade producers. The company also offers crude oil transportation and liquids logistics to various commercial and industrial customers.

Key Inputs And Sourcing

1. Energy (Electricity & Fuel)

energy · North America · unknown

Source Essential for pumping produced water through pipelines, operating disposal facilities, and powering transportation (trucks, barges, rail) in all segments. Operating expenses for Water Solutions were $0.21/barrel.

Confidence: high

2. Labor

labor · North America · unknown

Source NGL Energy Partners had 451 employees as of March 2026, with a significant portion in Operations and Engineering. Average salary is $82,071.

Confidence: high

3. Pipeline Materials (Steel)

component · HRC · North America · unknown

Source Significant for new construction (e.g., LEX II expansion with 60 miles of 24- and 30-inch pipeline) and maintenance. Pipeline construction costs can be substantial, and NGL is absorbing increased costs for new projects.

Confidence: medium

4. Disposal Well Drilling & Completion Services/Materials

other · North America · unknown

Source NGL operates ~202 disposal wells. Drilling and equipping new injection wells can cost an average of $5 million each, indicating significant material and service inputs.

Confidence: medium

5. Water Treatment Chemicals/Membranes

component · North America · unknown

Source Used for treating and recycling produced water, especially as beneficial reuse grows. Membrane costs are noted as declining.

Confidence: low

6. Trucking & Logistics Services

logistics · North America · unknown

Source While 99% of water in the Delaware Basin is piped, trucking is still used for some volumes and initial collection, incurring costs of $0.60-$0.70 per barrel.

Confidence: medium

7. Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

commodity · NG.NGL.C.NUS.A · North America · unknown

Source For the Liquids Logistics segment, NGL purchases butane, propane, and other NGLs for resale. This is a direct cost of revenue for that segment.

Confidence: low

Industry Publications

  • Oil & Gas Journal (ogj.com) — Provides operations-focused news across upstream, midstream, and downstream segments, directly relevant to NGL's diversified operations and infrastructure projects.
  • BIC Magazine (bicmagazine.com) — Offers in-depth coverage on transportation, storage, and processing within the midstream oil and gas sector, aligning with NGL's core midstream business.
  • B3 Insight (b3insight.com) — Specializes in data and analytics for water use, produced water, and disposal trends in the oil and gas industry, particularly in the Permian Basin where NGL has significant operations.
  • Texas Produced Water Consortium (TxPWC) (txpwc.ttu.edu) — Focuses on research and publications related to produced water in Texas, including the Permian Basin, offering insights into regulatory, technological, and market trends relevant to NGL's Water Solutions segment.
  • PA Environment Digest (paenvironmentdigest.com) — Covers environmental issues, including litigation and management of contaminated water from oil & gas, which is highly relevant to NGL's water solutions business and potential regulatory risks.

Economic Data Watch

1. FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma

Metric/field DCOILWTICO

Cadence daily

Why it matters Directly impacts NGL's skim oil revenue from its Water Solutions segment and influences overall producer economics and activity levels in the basins where NGL operates.

Signal to watch Higher WTI prices are generally bullish, indicating increased skim oil revenue and potentially encouraging more drilling activity from NGL's customers.

Confidence: high

2. Baker Hughes — North American Rotary Rig Count

Metric/field Permian Basin Rig Count (active oil and gas rigs)

Cadence weekly

Why it matters A direct and leading indicator of drilling activity in the Permian Basin, NGL's primary operating region, which directly correlates with produced water volumes requiring disposal and treatment.

Signal to watch An increasing Permian Basin rig count suggests higher future produced water volumes, which is bullish for NGL's Water Solutions segment.

Confidence: high

3. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) / NYMEX — Natural Gas Spot Prices

Metric/field Waha Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (NWAGA) - Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (NGAS)

Cadence daily

Why it matters The spread indicates takeaway capacity constraints and producer economics in the Permian Basin, directly affecting the profitability and activity levels of NGL's natural gas-producing customers.

Signal to watch A narrowing (less negative) Waha-Henry Hub basis spread is bullish, indicating improved Permian takeaway capacity and better economic incentives for producers, potentially leading to sustained or increased activity.

Confidence: high

4. FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — Federal Funds Effective Rate

Metric/field FEDFUNDS

Cadence daily

Why it matters Influences NGL's borrowing costs on its debt and the overall cost of capital, directly impacting its deleveraging efforts and financial flexibility.

Signal to watch Stable or decreasing federal funds rates are generally favorable, as they can reduce NGL's financing costs and support deleveraging.

Confidence: high

5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

Metric/field Permian Region Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Provides a broader measure of overall crude oil output in NGL's key operating region, which is a strong determinant of associated produced water volumes.

Signal to watch Increasing crude oil production in the Permian Region indicates sustained or growing activity, leading to higher produced water volumes for NGL.

Confidence: high

Free Alt Data Watch

1. Google Trends — Search Interest

Metric/field Search interest for 'Permian water disposal' (relative search volume)

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Reflects public and industry interest, awareness, and potential demand for produced water management services in NGL's core geographic focus area.

Signal to watch Increasing search interest suggests growing demand or focus on water disposal solutions in the Permian, which could be bullish for NGL.

Confidence: medium

2. Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) — Drilling Permits Issued

Metric/field Number of new drilling permits issued in Permian Basin (Districts 7C, 8, 8A)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters A leading indicator of future drilling and completion activity in the Texas portion of the Permian Basin, directly impacting NGL's potential produced water volumes.

Signal to watch An increasing number of drilling permits indicates anticipated future growth in producer activity and, consequently, produced water generation.

Confidence: high

3. New Mexico Oil Conservation Division (NMOCD) — Approved Drilling Permits

Metric/field Number of new drilling permits approved in Eddy and Lea Counties, New Mexico

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Provides specific insight into future drilling activity in key New Mexico counties where NGL has significant infrastructure, such as the LEX II system.

Signal to watch An increasing number of approved permits in these counties suggests future growth in produced water volumes directly relevant to NGL's operations.

Confidence: high

4. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Drilling Productivity Report (DPR)

Metric/field Permian Region New Well Oil Production per Rig (barrels/day/rig)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Indicates the efficiency and productivity of drilling operations in the Permian, influencing overall production and associated water volumes even with stable rig counts.

Signal to watch Increasing new well oil production per rig suggests sustained or growing production efficiency, which can lead to higher produced water volumes.

Confidence: high

5. Reddit — r/oilandgas subreddit

Metric/field Sentiment and discussion frequency around 'Permian', 'produced water', 'disposal', 'water solutions'

Cadence daily

Why it matters Offers qualitative insights into ground-level industry discussions, concerns, and emerging trends from professionals and enthusiasts in the oil and gas sector.

Signal to watch Positive sentiment or increased discussion frequency around water solutions and Permian activity suggests growing industry focus and potential opportunities for NGL.

Confidence: low

Paid Alt Data Watch

1. Planet Labs — Daily Satellite Imagery

Metric/field Construction progress (e.g., new pipeline segments, facility footprints, well pad development) at NGL's LEX II expansion and other key project sites in the Delaware Basin

Cadence daily

Why it matters Provides visual, near real-time verification of NGL's capital project execution and expansion, offering insights into operational readiness and future capacity.

Signal to watch Visible and consistent progress on key construction projects indicates timely execution and potential for future revenue generation.

Confidence: high

2. FreightWaves SONAR — Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI)

Metric/field OTVI for specialized liquid bulk carriers (e.g., water haulers) originating from or destined for the Permian Basin

Cadence daily

Why it matters Indicates the volume of produced water being transported by truck, which can supplement pipeline volumes and signal activity in areas not fully pipelined or during peak demand.

Signal to watch An increasing OTVI for relevant carrier types suggests higher demand for water hauling services, potentially indicating increased produced water generation.

Confidence: medium

3. Enverus — Drilling & Completion Data

Metric/field Number of new oil and gas wells completed and brought online in Eddy/Lea Counties (NM) and Andrews/Midland Counties (TX)

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Offers granular, near real-time data on producer activity at the well level in NGL's specific operating areas, directly impacting produced water volumes.

Signal to watch Higher completion rates in these specific counties indicate increased produced water generation and potential for NGL's services.

Confidence: high

4. Revelio Labs — Job Postings Data

Metric/field Number of unique job postings for 'produced water', 'water management', 'disposal', or 'midstream water' roles by NGL and its direct competitors in the Permian Basin

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Indicates hiring trends and growth intentions within the specialized water management sector, providing insights into NGL's expansion plans and the competitive landscape.

Signal to watch An increasing number of relevant job postings suggests expansion plans, growing operational needs, and overall industry growth in water solutions.

Confidence: medium

5. Water Intelligence (or similar industrial IoT data provider) — Industrial Water Flow Monitoring

Metric/field Aggregated produced water flow rates (e.g., barrels per day) from key customer sites or sub-basins in the Delaware Basin (anonymized if necessary)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Provides highly granular, real-time insight into actual produced water volumes from NGL's customer base, offering a direct measure of demand for its services.

Signal to watch Increasing aggregated flow rates from customer sites indicate higher produced water generation and demand for NGL's disposal and treatment services.

Confidence: medium

Search Keywords Brand Product

  • Water Solutions
  • LEX Pipeline System
  • Grand Mesa Pipeline
  • Liquids Logistics
  • Crude Oil Logistics
  • produced water disposal
  • beneficial reuse
  • mineral extraction
  • midstream energy
  • water management
  • oil and gas wastewater
  • delaware basin
  • energy campus
  • data center water supply
  • deleveraging
  • preferred unit redemption

Search Keywords Event Phrases

  • NGL earnings
  • LEX II Extension in service
  • Class D preferred redemption
  • common unit distribution reinstatement

Search Keywords Policy Regulatory

  • TCEQ permit
  • TPDES permit
What They Do (Plain English & Analogies)
NGL Energy Partners LP is like a specialized plumbing and logistics company for the energy industry, increasingly focusing on water. Imagine oil and gas drilling as a messy business that produces a lot of dirty water alongside the oil and gas. NGL's main job, through its Water Solutions segment, is to collect, treat, recycle, and safely dispose of this 'produced water' from drilling sites, primarily in major US oil and gas basins. They build and operate extensive pipeline networks and disposal wells to handle this wastewater, acting as a critical environmental service provider for energy producers. They also have smaller operations that transport crude oil through pipelines and handle other liquid fuels, but their strategic direction is heavily towards becoming a 'pure-play water company'. They are also exploring new areas like beneficial reuse of water, mineral extraction, and providing water for data centers.
Very Brief History
Founded in 1940, NGL Energy Partners LP has historically been a diversified midstream energy company. In recent years, particularly in fiscal 2026 and continuing into fiscal 2027, the company has undergone a significant transformation, divesting non-core assets like wholesale propane and rack marketing businesses to strategically reposition itself as a pure-play water solutions provider, while also working to simplify its capital structure and reduce debt.
"Street Stereotype"
The 'street stereotype' for NGL is that of a company in a significant strategic transition. It's generally perceived as moving away from a more diversified and volatile energy midstream business towards a more focused, stable, and growing 'pure-play water company'. Investors and analysts are closely watching its progress in strengthening the balance sheet, reducing high-cost debt (specifically the Class D preferreds), expanding its core Water Solutions segment, and the potential reinstatement of common unit distributions, which is seen as a more durable and visible earnings stream.
Subsidiaries On Linked In*
  • NGL Energy Operating LLC — Delaware jurisdiction
  • NGL Energy Finance Corp. — Delaware jurisdiction
  • TransMontaigne LLC — Delaware jurisdiction
  • NGL Crude Logistics, LLC — Delaware jurisdiction
  • NGL Crude Transportation, LLC — Colorado jurisdiction
  • NGL Crude Terminals, LLC — Delaware jurisdiction
  • NGL Marine, LLC — Texas jurisdiction
  • Grand Mesa Pipeline, LLC — Delaware jurisdiction
  • NGL Water Solutions, LLC — Colorado jurisdiction
  • NGL Water Solutions Permian, LLC — Colorado jurisdiction
  • NGL Water Solutions DJ, LLC — Colorado jurisdiction
  • NGL Water Solutions Eagle Ford, LLC — Delaware jurisdiction
Customer Sectors & Example Clients
NGL's primary customer sector is the oil and natural gas production industry. For its Water Solutions segment, customers are oil and gas producers, particularly "large investment-grade producers" operating in basins like the Delaware and DJ Basins. For Crude Oil Logistics, customers include crude oil producers, marketers, and refiners. The Liquids Logistics segment serves commercial, retail, and industrial customers. While specific client names are not provided in the transcript, educated guesses for top clients in the oil and gas production sector would include major exploration and production (E&P) companies active in the Permian Basin (Delaware Basin) and DJ Basin, such as Chevron, ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, and ConocoPhillips, given NGL's significant infrastructure footprint in these areas.
New Customers / Segments They'Re Targeting
NGL is actively targeting new customer segments and markets related to water reuse and mineral extraction. Specifically, they are in talks with "hyperscalers or data centers" who are seeking alternatives to groundwater for their operations in West Texas, positioning produced water as the answer. They are also engaged in discussions around "mineral extraction," particularly for lithium and iodine, from produced water. Furthermore, the company is pursuing projects related to beneficial reuse enabled by their TPDES permit through TCEQ, which they expect to receive soon, opening up new economic opportunities for supplying treated water.
Sales Geographies And Expansion Plans
NGL currently operates its Water Solutions segment in several prolific crude oil and natural gas producing basins in the United States, including the Delaware Basin (specifically Andrews County, Eddy County, and Lea Counties in New Mexico, and Andrews County in Texas), the Eagle Ford Basin, and the DJ Basin. Its Crude Oil Logistics segment operates the Grand Mesa Pipeline in the DJ Basin. The Liquids Logistics segment serves commercial, retail, and industrial customers across the United States and Canada. Management has clear plans for expansion, primarily focused on its Water Solutions segment. This includes the recently executed LEX II Extension project, expanding the current long-haul LEX Pipeline System to 81 miles with capability to transport approximately 560,000 barrels per day of produced water from Eddy and Lea Counties in New Mexico to Andrews County in Texas. This extension is underwritten by a newly executed long-term volume commitment contract. They are also developing another 300,000 barrels per day of contracted capacity in the balance of this fiscal year and are working on fiscal '28 deals. Furthermore, NGL is making progress on an 'energy campus project' that includes large-scale desalination and a potential data center addition, indicating future expansion into new service areas and potentially new geographic regions for these integrated solutions.
How Key Themes May Help/Hurt
The 'NatGas '25: Midstream & Pipelines' theme, while primarily focused on natural gas, has elements that can help NGL. The 'explosive growth of AI data centers' driving 'substantial new baseload electricity demand, primarily met by natural gas-fired generation' aligns with NGL's exploration of an 'energy campus project' that includes 'nuclear power' and a 'data center addition'. This could open up a new, high-demand market for NGL's water solutions, as data centers require significant water. The theme's emphasis on 'stable, predictable returns via long-term (10-20 year) offtake agreements and fixed 'tolls'' reinforces NGL's own strategy in its Water Solutions segment, which is characterized by long-term volume commitments. Conversely, NGL's Crude Oil Logistics and Liquids Logistics segments, though smaller, still have exposure to commodity price fluctuations and producer activity. While the theme's bull case for natural gas is strong, 'commodity price volatility' could still impact these non-water segments if crude oil or NGL prices experience significant downturns, potentially affecting producer activity in areas served by these segments. The theme also mentions that 'large-scale infrastructure projects remain susceptible to execution risks, including cost overruns, construction delays, and financing challenges', which is relevant to NGL's significant growth capital spend on projects like the LEX II Extension and potential future large-diameter water pipelines.

3 Main Long-Term Bull Details

  1. Strategic Transformation to Pure-Play Water Company with Dominant Infrastructure: NGL is aggressively transitioning to a focused water solutions company, divesting non-core assets and prioritizing a segment that offers durable, visible earnings and attractive returns. The company owns and operates the largest integrated network of large-diameter wastewater pipelines and disposal wells in the prolific Delaware Basin, underpinned by long-term, fee-based contracts with minimum volume commitments and acreage dedications, ensuring a stable and growing revenue stream.
  2. Consistent Growth in Water Solutions with High-Return Projects: The Water Solutions segment is NGL's primary growth engine, delivering record performance with physical disposal volumes growing 19.6% year-over-year in Q1 FY27 to 3.32 million barrels per day. The LEX II Extension project and additional growth capital projects, underwritten by newly executed long-term volume commitment contracts (totaling 1.77 million barrels a day), ensure continued growth and visible earnings streams, with significant EBITDA generated from current capital spend expected in fiscal 2028.
  3. Strengthening Balance Sheet and Potential for Common Unit Distribution: NGL has made significant progress in strengthening its capital structure through deleveraging and addressing the Class D preferred units. The company expects to redeem about 50% of the remaining Class D preferreds this fiscal year and anticipates a distribution reinstatement possibly happening in 2027, signaling improved financial flexibility and long-term value creation for unitholders.

3 Main Long-Term Bear Details

  1. Execution Risk of Growth Projects and New Ventures: While NGL has a strong pipeline of contracted projects, the execution of large-scale infrastructure expansions (like LEX II Extension) and new ventures (such as the energy campus with desalination and data center components, and beneficial reuse/mineral extraction) carries inherent risks of cost overruns, delays, or lower-than-expected returns, despite projects being underwritten by long-term contracts.
  2. Indirect Exposure to Commodity Price Volatility: Despite its fee-based model for Water Solutions, NGL's core business remains fundamentally tied to the activity levels of oil and natural gas producers. A prolonged downturn in commodity prices could lead to reduced drilling activity, thereby impacting produced water volumes and NGL's revenue. Additionally, the smaller Crude Oil Logistics segment remains directly exposed to crude oil price fluctuations and producer activity in the DJ Basin.
  3. Regulatory and Permitting Delays for New Initiatives: NGL operates in a heavily regulated industry. Evolving environmental regulations and permitting processes, particularly for new initiatives like beneficial reuse and the TPDES permit, could impose additional costs, restrict operations, or delay project development, as evidenced by the three-year wait for their TPDES permit.
Competitors And Differentiation
NGL's competitors in the produced water disposal and treatment space in the Permian Basin include companies like Solaris Midstream, San Mateo Midstream, Waterbridge, XRI Holdings, and Aris Water Solutions. NGL differentiates itself by owning and operating the largest integrated network of large-diameter wastewater pipelines and disposal wells in the prolific Delaware Basin. This infrastructure is underpinned by long-term, fee-based contracts with minimum volume commitments and acreage dedications, ensuring a stable and growing revenue stream. They also highlight their ability to perform reliably and consistently for customers, especially during peak flowback periods, and their focus on improving the credit profile of their customer base with over 90% of produced water delivered from investment-grade counterparties. Their pursuit of beneficial reuse, mineral extraction, and the 'energy campus' concept with small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) for power and desalination, potentially serving data centers, also aims to create competitive advantages.
Recent Performance & What The Market'S Focused On
NGL Energy Partners reported a strong start to fiscal 2027, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations for the first quarter reaching $186.2 million, nearly 30% higher than the prior first quarter. This increase was primarily driven by the Water Solutions business, which generated record adjusted EBITDA of $179.9 million, a 26% increase year-over-year, and record physical produced water volumes of 3.32 million barrels per day, up 19.6%. The company raised its fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $10 million, to a new range of $725 million to $735 million. The market is focused on NGL's continued execution of its multiyear strategy of deleveraging the balance sheet, particularly addressing the Class D preferreds, with plans to redeem about 50% this fiscal year. Investors are also closely watching the sustained growth in the Water Solutions segment, including the successful completion and ramp-up of projects like the LEX II Extension, and the progress on new initiatives such as beneficial reuse, mineral extraction, and the energy campus project. The potential reinstatement of the common unit distribution, possibly in 2027, is also a significant point of interest for investors.
Revenue Segments And Estimated Mix
  • Water Solutions — Mix: 91% of Q1 FY27 Adjusted EBITDA; Source: Q1 FY27 Earnings Call; Trend: Record adjusted EBITDA and physical water disposal volumes, 26% increase in EBITDA and 19.6% increase in physical volumes year-over-year. Primary growth driver.
  • Crude Oil Logistics — Mix: ~4.6% of Q1 FY27 Adjusted EBITDA; Source: Q1 FY27 Earnings Call (Calculated from $8.6M / $186.2M); Trend: Adjusted EBITDA decreased from $9.6 million in prior year first quarter to $8.6 million.
  • Liquids Logistics — Mix: ~5.5% of Q1 FY27 Adjusted EBITDA; Source: Q1 FY27 Earnings Call (Calculated from $10.3M / $186.2M); Trend: Adjusted EBITDA increased from $2.9 million in prior year first quarter to $10.3 million, driven by additional contracted activity through remaining butane terminals. Majority of EBITDA from this segment occurs in the back half of the fiscal year.
Product Brands
  • LEX II system
  • LEX Pipeline System
  • Grand Mesa Pipeline
Bull / Bear Details

NGL Energy Partners is successfully executing its transformation into a pure-play water company, driven by record growth in its Water Solutions segment and stra

Thesis

NGL Energy Partners is successfully executing its transformation into a pure-play water company, driven by record growth in its Water Solutions segment and strategic deleveraging. Strong demand in the Delaware Basin, significant contracted capacity additions, and progress on high-return projects like LEX II underpin visible earnings. The potential for common unit distribution reinstatement and new ventures further strengthens the investment case as of September 1, 2026.

Bull case

  • The Water Solutions segment is NGL's primary growth engine, delivering record performance with Q1 FY27 adjusted EBITDA up 26% and physical volumes up 19.6% year-over-year. The LEX II Extension, backed by new long-term commitments, and 500,000 barrels per day of new contracted capacity for fiscal 2027 ensure continued growth and visible earnings streams, with total commitments now at 1.77 million barrels per day.

  • NGL continues to make significant progress in strengthening its capital structure, reducing leverage in Q1 fiscal 2027 and aiming for 4x leverage (excluding preferreds) by fiscal year-end. The company expects to redeem approximately 50% of the remaining Class D preferreds this fiscal year, paving the way for a potential common unit distribution reinstatement as early as 2027.

  • NGL is actively pursuing new high-return growth avenues beyond traditional disposal, engaging in talks for beneficial reuse (especially for data centers facing groundwater pushback) and mineral extraction (lithium, iodine). The anticipated economic TPDES permit in October 2026 will unlock new projects, and the company is preparing for M&A opportunities as its equity price increases.

Bear case

  • Despite its fee-based model, NGL's core Water Solutions business remains fundamentally tied to the activity levels of oil and natural gas producers. A prolonged downturn in commodity prices or reduced drilling activity could impact produced water volumes, even with long-term contracts, potentially affecting NGL's revenue and growth trajectory, introducing an element of volatility.

  • While NGL has a strong pipeline of contracted projects, the execution of large-scale infrastructure expansions (like LEX II) and new ventures (beneficial reuse, mineral extraction, energy campus) carries inherent risks of cost overruns, construction delays, or lower-than-expected returns. These execution challenges could impact profitability, capital efficiency, and the timely realization of projected growth.

  • Management stated that reducing Class D preferreds is 'not our highest and best use of cash' due to attractive investment opportunities. While they plan to redeem 50% this year, this approach, coupled with the put option in January 2028, introduces uncertainty regarding the full resolution of these high-cost securities and could impact financial flexibility and investor sentiment.

Bull / Bear Case
Bear Case
Despite its fee-based model, NGL's core Water Solutions business remains fundamentally tied to the activity levels of oil and natural gas producers, introducing an element of volatility if commodity prices decline or drilling activity slows. The execution of large-scale infrastructure expansions like LEX II and new ventures such as beneficial reuse and mineral extraction carries inherent risks of cost overruns, construction delays, or lower-than-expected returns. Management's statement that reducing Class D preferreds is 'not our highest and best use of cash' due to attractive investment opportunities introduces uncertainty regarding the full resolution of these high-cost securities, especially with a put option in January 2028. This approach could impact financial flexibility and investor sentiment. Furthermore, regulatory and permitting delays for new initiatives, as evidenced by the three-year wait for their TPDES permit, pose ongoing risks to project development and profitability.
Bull Case
NGL Energy Partners is successfully transforming into a pure-play water company, with its Water Solutions segment serving as the primary growth engine. The segment delivered record performance in Q1 FY27, with adjusted EBITDA up 26% and physical volumes increasing 19.6% year-over-year. The LEX II Extension and 500,000 barrels per day of new contracted capacity for fiscal 2027 ensure continued growth and visible earnings streams, with total commitments now at 1.77 million barrels per day. The company is also making significant progress in strengthening its capital structure, reducing leverage in Q1 FY27 and aiming for 4x leverage (excluding preferreds) by fiscal year-end. Management expects to redeem approximately 50% of the remaining Class D preferreds this fiscal year, potentially paving the way for a common unit distribution reinstatement as early as 2027. Additionally, NGL is actively pursuing new high-return growth avenues such as beneficial reuse for data centers and mineral extraction, with an economic TPDES permit anticipated in October 2026 to unlock new projects.
More Compelling & Why
Bear. Despite strong operational performance and insider buying, NGL appears significantly overvalued, trading at $18.97 against a GuruFocus Fair Value estimate of $5.60, implying a 238.8% overvaluation. The company also remains unprofitable on a trailing twelve-month basis. The strongest argument for the bear case is that the current valuation has already priced in substantial future growth and deleveraging, leaving limited upside and significant downside risk if execution falters or macro conditions worsen. My view would flip if NGL consistently demonstrates positive net income, significantly reduces its debt/EBITDA below its 4x target (excluding preferreds), and provides a clear, fully funded plan for the complete resolution of the Class D preferreds.
Key Factors5 rows
Key FactorWhy It MattersWhat To WatchWhat It SignalsWhere/How To TrackFree Alt DataPaid Alt Data
Class D Preferred Unit Redemptions & Leverage ReductionReducing high-cost preferred units and overall leverage strengthens the balance sheet, lowers the cost of capital, and improves financial flexibility, paving the way for common unit distributions.Announcements of Class D preferred unit redemptions, the reported Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio, and commentary on progress towards the 4x leverage target (excluding preferreds) by fiscal year-end. Also, any specific plans for the remaining Class D preferreds before January 1, 2028.Bullish if NGL redeems approximately 50% of the remaining Class D preferreds this fiscal year, if the leverage ratio shows a consistent downward trend towards 4x (excluding preferreds), or if the common unit distribution is reinstated in 2027.Company earnings calls (next in early November for 2Q FY27), quarterly earnings releases, SEC filings (10-Q, 8-K).N/ACredit rating agency reports (e.g., Moody's, S&P) for credit profile updates.
New Water Solutions Project Announcements & Future Capacity DevelopmentNew projects and strong customer activity demonstrate continued demand for NGL's core services and underpin future growth in its pure-play water strategy.Announcements of new large-scale water infrastructure projects (e.g., another large diameter water pipeline), new long-term contracts with investment-grade producers, and progress on the 300,000 barrels per day of contracted capacity planned for development this fiscal year.Bullish if NGL announces new significant long-term contracts (e.g., with new large investment-grade producers), new large diameter pipeline projects, or successful development of the additional 300,000 bpd capacity.Company press releases, earnings call transcripts (next in early November for 2Q FY27), SEC filings.Industry news outlets covering Permian Basin E&P activity and water management.Industrial Info Resources: Water infrastructure project tracking; Drillinginfo (Enverus): Producer activity and well permits in the Delaware Basin.
Water Solutions Produced Water Volumes & New Contracted CapacityThis segment is NGL's primary growth engine, and increasing volumes and commitments validate its strategic focus and provide visible, stable earnings streams.Monitor quarterly reported physical produced water volumes (barrels per day), announcements of new long-term volume commitment contracts, and progress on the LEX II Extension project (expected in service by end of calendar year 2026).Bullish if physical produced water volumes consistently exceed 3.32 million barrels per day (1Q FY27), if new contracts add >200,000 barrels per day in commitments (as in 1Q FY27), or if the LEX II Extension is in service by end of calendar year 2026.Company earnings calls (next in early November for 2Q FY27), quarterly earnings releases, SEC filings (10-Q, 8-K), company press releases.State regulatory bodies (e.g., New Mexico Oil Conservation Division) for regional produced water volumes; industry news sites covering Permian Basin activity.Wood Mackenzie: Permian Basin water infrastructure activity; RBN Energy: Produced water market analysis.
Progress on Beneficial Reuse/Desalination & Energy Campus ProjectsThese initiatives represent new, high-growth avenues that diversify NGL's water solutions, address emerging market demands (e.g., data centers), and could unlock significant long-term value.Announcement of the economic TPDES permit from TCEQ (expected October 2026), specific project announcements related to beneficial reuse or mineral extraction (lithium, iodine), and any partnerships or customer commitments for data center water supply.Bullish if the economic TPDES permit is received in October 2026, or if concrete milestones (e.g., Final Investment Decision, customer commitments with hyperscalers/data centers, or M&A related to these areas) are announced for beneficial reuse, mineral extraction, or energy campus projects.Company press releases, earnings call transcripts (next in early November for 2Q FY27), TCEQ public records (for permit status).Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) website for permit applications/status; industry news covering water treatment and data center development in West Texas.Industrial Info Resources: Water treatment and energy project tracking; Wood Mackenzie: Water market intelligence for Permian Basin.
Fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA Performance vs. GuidanceOverall Adjusted EBITDA performance reflects the company's operational efficiency and the success of its strategic transformation, directly impacting investor confidence and valuation.Monitor quarterly reported Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations, and any further updates to the raised fiscal 2027 guidance range of $725 million to $735 million.Bullish if quarterly Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA consistently meets or exceeds pro-rata expectations for the $725 million to $735 million fiscal year 2027 guidance, or if guidance is raised further.Company earnings calls (next in early November for 2Q FY27), quarterly earnings releases, SEC filings (10-Q).Financial news aggregators (e.g., Yahoo Finance, Google Finance) for consensus estimates and reported earnings.Bloomberg Terminal/Refinitiv Eikon: Analyst consensus estimates, earnings actuals.
Key Reported Metrics, Reratings Triggers & Results3 rows

As the primary growth engine, the profitability of the Water Solutions segment is crucial. Its performance directly impacts the company's overall financial heal

Upcoming print · 2026-11-03

Key reported metrics
MetricLast periodWhy it matters
Water Solutions Adjusted EBITDA26%

As the primary growth engine, the profitability of the Water Solutions segment is crucial. Its performance directly impacts the company's overall financial health and validates the strategic focus on water solutions.

Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations30%

This metric indicates the company's overall profitability and operational efficiency, validating its strategic transformation and growth in the core Water Solutions segment. Performance against the recently raised guidance is key.

Water Solutions Produced Water Volumes19.6%

This metric directly reflects the success and expansion of NGL's core pure-play water strategy, signaling strong demand for services and future revenue potential. Investors watch for consistent growth in volumes.

Last reported · 2026-08-04

Key reported metrics
MetricLast periodWhy it matters
Water Solutions Adjusted EBITDA16.5%

This metric is crucial as Water Solutions is the cornerstone and primary growth engine of NGL. Its performance directly impacts the company's overall profitability and validates the strategic focus.

Water Solutions Produced Water Volumes10.0%

As NGL transitions to a pure-play water company, this operational metric directly reflects the success and expansion of its primary growth driver, signaling demand for services and future revenue potential.

Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations-0.2%

This metric indicates the company's overall profitability and operational efficiency, validating its strategic transformation and growth in the core Water Solutions segment. Investors monitor it for financial health and performance against guidance.

Key Questions

Will NGL Energy Partners LP continue its strong operational momentum, particularly with the LEX II Extension coming online by year-end 2026, to achieve or excee

Will NGL Energy Partners LP continue its strong operational momentum, particularly with the LEX II Extension coming online by year-end 2026, to achieve or exceed its raised fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $725 million to $735 million?

Question 2

Will NGL Energy Partners LP successfully redeem approximately 50% of its remaining Class D preferred units this fiscal year and maintain its deleveraging trend towards a 4x leverage ratio (excluding preferreds), potentially enabling the reinstatement of a common unit distribution in 2027?

Question 3

Will NGL Energy Partners LP receive an economic TPDES permit from TCEQ in October 2026 and make tangible progress on new projects related to beneficial reuse for hyperscalers/data centers or mineral extraction opportunities?

Earnings Transcript Summary2 rows
· 2027Q1 Earnings Call
3 Things Management Is Most Focused OnCall Takeaway & TonePrior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)Revenue Segments
3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. Deleveraging the balance sheet through high-return water growth projects: Management reported a strong start to fiscal 2027 and continued execution on their multiyear strategy of deleveraging the balance sheet through high-return water growth projects. They reduced leverage in the first quarter and expect this trend to continue. 2. Addressing Class D preferreds: Management plans to address the Class D preferreds later this fiscal year, expecting to redeem about 50% of the remaining Class D preferreds and prepare for the possibility of holders putting them to NGL by January 1, 2028. 3. Expanding the Water Solutions business and pursuing related opportunities: Management highlighted record produced water volumes and adjusted EBITDA for the Water Solutions segment, emphasizing execution on the LEX II Extension project, adding permitted injection capacity, and planning additional growth projects. They are also actively exploring beneficial reuse and mineral extraction opportunities, anticipating a TPDES permit soon.Call Takeaway & ToneThe overall takeaway of the call was highly positive, highlighting a very strong start to fiscal 2027 driven by record performance in the Water Solutions segment. Management expressed confidence in their multi-year strategy of deleveraging and executing high-return growth projects, leading to an upward revision of fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance. The tone was optimistic and forward-looking, with management discussing future growth opportunities, M&A, and the potential reinstatement of the common unit distribution in 2027.Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentWater Solutions: Produced water volumes increased 10% year-over-year in Q4 2026. (Adjusted EBITDA year-over-year growth for Q4 2026 was not explicitly stated in the provided context or search results). Crude Oil Logistics: Year-over-year growth for Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was not explicitly stated in the provided context or search results. Liquids Logistics: Year-over-year growth for Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was not explicitly stated in the provided context or search results.3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. Growth outlook for Water Solutions and future investment opportunities in the Delaware Basin: Analysts inquired about the opportunity set for additional growth investments and potential constraints. Management responded that they added 200,000 barrels/day of new capacity in Q1, plan another 300,000 barrels/day this year, and are working on fiscal '28 deals, indicating no real constraint but rather a timing opportunity for execution. 2. Opportunities in beneficial reuse and mineral extraction: Analysts asked about NGL's involvement in these emerging areas. Management confirmed active engagement in talks for both mineral extraction (lithium, iodine) and beneficial reuse for hyperscalers/data centers, expecting future announcements. They also anticipate receiving their TPDES permit this month (October), which will enable exciting new projects. 3. Timeline for reinstating the common unit distribution (dividend): Analysts pressed on when NGL might be in a position to reinstate the dividend. Management stated that if they redeem about half of the Class D preferreds this fiscal year, distribution reinstatement "comes back on the table," possibly in 2027, noting this was the first time they had discussed it.Revenue SegmentsConsolidated Adjusted EBITDA increased nearly 30% year-over-year. Water Solutions Adjusted EBITDA increased 26% year-over-year. Water Solutions Physical Water Disposal Volumes increased 19.6% year-over-year. Water Solutions Total Volumes Paid to Dispose increased approximately 12% year-over-year. Crude Oil Logistics Adjusted EBITDA decreased 10.4% year-over-year. Liquids Logistics Adjusted EBITDA increased 255.2% year-over-year.
· 2026Q4 Earnings Call
3 Things Management Is Most Focused OnCall Takeaway & TonePrior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)Revenue Segments
3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. Accelerating the transition to a pure-play water company by expanding water infrastructure and monetizing unrelated assets. 2. Strengthening the balance sheet by reducing leverage, lowering the cost of capital, and improving financial flexibility, specifically through the redemption of Class D preferred units. 3. Opportunistically repurchasing both preferred and common equity when it creates value.Call Takeaway & ToneThe overall takeaway of the call was that NGL Energy Partners concluded fiscal 2026 with strong performance, particularly in its Water Solutions segment, and made significant progress on its capital structure priorities. The company is actively transforming into a pure-play water company, supported by contracted growth projects and a positive outlook for fiscal 2027. The tone was positive and confident, emphasizing record performance in Water Solutions, successful balance sheet improvements, and a clear strategic direction for future growth. Management expressed optimism about continued momentum into fiscal 2027.Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentWater Solutions: Adjusted EBITDA increased by 16.5% year-over-year in Q3 2026. Crude Oil Logistics: Adjusted EBITDA decreased by approximately 11.0% year-over-year in Q3 2026 (from $17.3M to $15.4M). Liquids Logistics: Adjusted EBITDA decreased by approximately 18.4% year-over-year in Q3 2026 (from $18.6M to $15.2M).3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. Growth capital for fiscal 2027 beyond the LEX II expansion: Management responded that the bulk of the $200 million growth CapEx is for LEX II, but it does include some incremental projects. 2. Split between new and existing clients for LEX II expansion and the need for further expansion up to 650,000 barrels: Management clarified that the LEX II expansion is underwritten by an amended and extended existing agreement with current customers, including longer-term additional barrel count and a large 4-township dedication. They also noted an "incredible amount of demand for additional capacity in the basin" indicating the need for further expansion. 3. Activity outlook in the DJ Basin for the Crude Logistics segment: Management stated they are seeing "very, very good activity" in the DJ Basin, with smaller, private equity-backed players consolidating acreage and having more cohesive development plans, leading to an "uptick in activity" expected to carry into this fiscal year and the next couple.Revenue SegmentsWater Solutions: Adjusted EBITDA grew by 11% year-over-year for the full fiscal year 2026. Q4 produced water volumes increased 10% year-over-year. Crude Oil Logistics: Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $17 million for the quarter (y/y growth not explicitly stated). Liquids Logistics: Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $17 million for the quarter (y/y growth not explicitly stated).
Transcript Tidbits2 rows
About Expanding Eligible MarketAbout CompetitionAbout The Broader IndustryWhere Things Are HeadedUpdates On ThemeBroader Themes EmergingBullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)
About Expanding Eligible MarketNGL Energy Partners reported record produced water volumes, physically disposing of approximately 3.32 million barrels per day in the first quarter, a 19.6% increase from the prior year. The company executed the LEX II Extension project, expanding the long-haul LEX Pipeline System to 81 miles with a capability to transport approximately 560,000 barrels per day of produced water, underwritten by a new long-term volume commitment contract including an additional 4 township committed area in Eddy County. Total produced water volume commitments now stand at approximately 1.77 million barrels per day, representing roughly 53% of total volumes. Permitted injection capacity increased by approximately 200,000 barrels in Q1 FY27, bringing total permitted capacity to 5.62 million barrels per day in the Delaware Basin, with further additions planned this fiscal year. NGL signed over 200,000 barrels per day in new volume commitments this quarter and plans to develop another 300,000 barrels per day in the balance of the year, totaling 500,000 barrels per day of contracted capacity. The company is actively working on fiscal '28 deals and is engaged in talks regarding beneficial reuse and mineral extraction opportunities, particularly for lithium and iodine, expecting future announcements. They are also in discussions with hyperscalers and data centers for beneficial reuse, as produced water is becoming a solution for their water needs in West Texas due to groundwater pushback. NGL anticipates receiving an economic TPDES permit through TCEQ this month (October), which will enable exciting new projects. The company is positioning itself to potentially build another large diameter water pipeline and pursue M&A opportunities in the next couple of years.About CompetitionNGL Energy Partners is focused on performing reliably and consistently for its customers, especially during peak flowback periods, implying operational excellence as a competitive advantage. The company believes there is still a significant competitive advantage for first movers in areas like TPDES permits and related projects. Management acknowledged that peers are also engaged in discussions and moving forward with contracts around beneficial reuse and mineral extraction, indicating an evolving competitive landscape in these emerging areas.About The Broader IndustryThe company maintains continuous conversations with producers to monitor activity levels and potential impacts from the macro backdrop on its Water Solutions segment, acknowledging ongoing macro volatility. Despite this volatility, there remains a high level of interest in takeaway and disposal capacity. A significant industry trend highlighted is the increasing demand from hyperscalers and data centers, which are facing pushback on groundwater usage. This is making produced water a crucial solution for getting these projects off the ground in West Texas, with dozens of such projects emerging.Where Things Are HeadedNGL Energy Partners is continuing its multiyear strategy of deleveraging the balance sheet through high-return water growth projects and plans to address the Class D preferreds later this fiscal year. The company expects fiscal 2028 to mirror fiscal 2027, with continued execution of growth capital projects. The delevering trend is expected to continue for the remainder of the fiscal year, with long-term debt remaining relatively flat until the back half of the year while leverage decreases each quarter. NGL raised its fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $10 million, to a new range of $725 million to $735 million, and anticipates further increases if current performance continues. The company expects to redeem about 50% of the remaining Class D preferreds this fiscal year. Looking ahead, NGL is positioning itself to potentially build another large diameter water pipeline, pursue M&A opportunities, and reinstate the common unit distribution, possibly in 2027. The company has a line of sight to being 4x levered (excluding preferreds) by the end of this fiscal year.Updates On ThemeMidstreamBroader Themes EmergingWater Scarcity & Reuse, Data Center Energy/Water Demand.Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)We are pleased to report a strong start to fiscal 2027. We hit record produced water volumes. The record water volumes also generated record Water Solutions adjusted EBITDA for a single quarter. We believe fiscal 2028 could mirror this fiscal year. We are raising the fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $10 million. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA... came in at $186.2 million versus $143.9 million in the prior first quarter, nearly 30% higher. Water Solutions generated 91% of the EBITDA for the partnership. Operating expenses for the quarter on a per barrel basis were lower by $0.01. If it continues, we anticipate further increases in EBITDA guidance. We see it possibly happening in 2027 (referring to dividend reinstatement).Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Our comments today will include plans, forecasts and estimates that are forward-looking statements under the U.S. securities law. These comments are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Even with the macro volatility, we continue to have a high level of interest in takeaway and disposal capacity. Reducing the Class Ds is not our highest and best use of cash. We didn't have a lot of extra cash to do an all-cash deal.
About Expanding Eligible MarketAbout CompetitionAbout The Broader IndustryWhere Things Are HeadedUpdates On ThemeBroader Themes EmergingBullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)
About Expanding Eligible MarketNGL Energy Partners announced a further expansion of its LEX II system, increasing capacity by 165,000 barrels per day to approximately 560,000 barrels of water per day, with the capability to expand up to 650,000 barrels per day. This expansion is underwritten by a long-term volume commitment contract, including increased volume commitments and an additional 4 township committed area in Eddy County. The company also highlighted incremental disposal capacity in Andrews County with millions of barrels of pore space. Management noted an "incredible amount of demand for additional capacity in the basin" that is "continuing to increase and continuing to have a line out the door of demand for additional capacity." Furthermore, NGL is making progress on beneficial reuse and water desalination projects, including exploring a data center addition to an energy campus project that would also include nuclear power and large-scale desalination.About CompetitionThe company's Water Solutions segment benefits from strong customer activity levels, particularly from large investment-grade producers. Management noted a "dearth of available capacity" in the basin, suggesting a favorable market environment with high demand for their services.About The Broader IndustryThe transcript indicates a 10% growth in water volumes in the basin, driven by an "acceleration of development over the last couple of years" and efficiencies that are increasing demand for water services. In the DJ Basin, there is "very, very good activity" with smaller, private equity-backed players consolidating acreage and developing more cohesive plans. The company is also exploring opportunities related to AI data centers requiring baseload electricity, which aligns with broader industry trends of increased power demand.Where Things Are HeadedNGL Energy Partners is strategically positioning itself to become a "pure-play water company," with plans to continue rightsizing and monetizing noncore assets in its Liquids segment. The company aims to simplify its capital structure by reducing Class D preferred units through free cash flow, noncore asset sales, and opportunistic access to capital markets when leverage is appropriate. For fiscal 2027, NGL expects to follow the same playbook as fiscal 2026, focusing on accretive growth projects in Water Solutions and further simplifying the capital structure. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2027 is projected to be between $715 million and $725 million, representing approximately 10% growth year-over-year, primarily driven by contracted Water Solutions expansion. The company has a "strong pipeline of contracted projects that supports continued growth in fiscal 2027 and into fiscal 2028."Updates On ThemeTheBroader Themes EmergingAn emerging broader theme is the integration of energy solutions, including nuclear power and data centers, with water infrastructure projects. NGL is exploring a "data center addition to that campus as well as the large-scale desal," indicating a potential convergence of water management with the growing energy demands of technology sectors like AI.Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)"strong finish to fiscal 2026, highlighted by record performance in our Water Solutions segment" "adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was approximately $660 million, which came in at the high end of our guidance range" "Fiscal '27 is off to a great start. The momentum we exited with in fiscal '26 is carrying through to 2027" "Water Solutions, which continues to be the cornerstone of our business. This segment delivered another record year" "Water Solutions segment remains one of the most durable and visible earnings streams in the midstream sector and provides the most attractive returns from internal growth opportunities." "There is an incredible amount of demand for additional capacity in the basin."Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)"Excluding the goodwill impairment charge, income from continuing operations is approximately $70 million." "Liquids segment will continue to be rightsized as we work to monetize the noncore assets in this division." "increased cost of the pipeline portion of the new projects, which we are absorbing and not passing on to our customers."
Notes2 rows
DateCommentComment TypeComment SentimentLinkPrice Reaction
2026-05-28NGL Energy Partners reported a strong fiscal 2026, achieving high-end EBITDA guidance driven by record Water Solutions performance and significant capital structure improvements. The strategic pivot to a pure-play water company was emphasized. However, a substantial Q4 EPS miss, primarily due to a goodwill impairment, led to an initial negative market reaction. Despite this, positive FY27 guidance and robust water demand support the long-term growth narrative.Earnings TranscriptNeutralN/A
2026-08-04NGL Energy Partners reported a strong Q1 FY27, driven by record Water Solutions performance and raised fiscal 2027 EBITDA guidance. Management emphasized deleveraging and potential common unit distribution reinstatement in 2027. The market reacted positively, with the stock gaining 6.50% (vs. SPY's 0.25%) in the two days post-earnings, aligning with the optimistic outlook and strategic progress.Earnings TranscriptPositive+6.50% (vs SPY: +6.25%)