NDX1.XETRA
T2Nordex SE
OverviewNordex SE designs, manufactures, and distributes multi-megawatt onshore wind turbines globally, offering project development and installation services. Its Serv
Nordex SE designs, manufactures, and distributes multi-megawatt onshore wind turbines globally, offering project development and installation services. Its Services segment provides maintenance and remote monitoring, ensuring operational efficiency. The company primarily sells to wind farm developers and operators worldwide, maintaining a strong market position, especially in Europe.
- What They Do (Plain English & Analogies)
- Nordex SE is like a specialized construction company for wind farms. They design, build, and maintain the giant 'windmills' (wind turbines) that turn wind into electricity. Think of them as providing the complete package for onshore wind power projects, from developing the site to installing the turbines and keeping them running smoothly for many years. They essentially help countries and companies generate clean, renewable energy from the wind.
- Very Brief History
- Founded in Denmark in 1985, Nordex SE began with a vision for cost-effective, eco-friendly electricity generation. The company pioneered mass production of 1 MW turbines in 1995 and entered the 2.5 MW class in 2000. Nordex went public on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in 2001. A significant milestone was the merger with Acciona Windpower in 2016, which transformed Nordex into a global player. By the end of 2023, Nordex had installed approximately 50 GW of wind turbine capacity across over 40 nations.
- "Street Stereotype"
- Nordex is generally perceived by investors and analysts as a company that has successfully navigated a 'transformational period' and is now on a path of strengthening its business and profitability. After facing past challenges, the company has demonstrated robust operational and financial improvements, exceeding medium-term margin targets and generating strong free cash flow. The market is now focused on its continued profitable growth, disciplined capital allocation, and the introduction of its first shareholder return policy, signaling a more normalized and stable financial position.
- Subsidiaries On Linked In*
- Nordex Germany GmbH — German subsidiary for sales and service; LinkedIn: nordex-germany-gmbh
- Nordex Energy Spain S.A.U. — Spanish entity; LinkedIn: nordex-energy-spain-s.a.u.
- Nordex North America — Regional presence in the US and Canada; LinkedIn: nordex-north-america
- Nordex Group (Sweden) — Swedish subsidiary established in 2006; LinkedIn: nordex-group
- Nordex Group (Finland) — Finnish branch office established in 2011; LinkedIn: nordex-group
- Customer Sectors & Example Clients
- Nordex SE primarily operates in the business-to-business (B2B) sector within the renewable energy industry. Its customer base includes large utility companies, independent power producers (IPPs), project developers, and industrial clients. Specific examples of clients mentioned in recent orders include Max Bögl and STAWAG Energie GmbH in Germany.
- New Customers / Segments They'Re Targeting
- Nordex is targeting new opportunities driven by increasing electrification and industrial demand, which supports the long-term build-out of renewables. They are also focused on supporting their existing customers in advancing their project development pipelines. Geographically, they are looking for 'selective upsides' in markets such as Australia and continue to rebuild their market position in the Americas.
- Supply Chain And Sourcing Geographies
- Nordex maintains a diversified supply chain and production network across several geographies. They have production facilities for nacelles, rotor blades, and concrete towers in Germany, Spain, Brazil, India, Mexico, Poland, and the United States. The company aims to keep and grow its presence in Europe, India, and China, while also ramping up and growing in the U.S. There have been temporary delays at a blade supplier in Turkey. Nordex also sources more than 30% of its parts from China.
- Sales Geographies And Expansion Plans
- Nordex has a broad global sales footprint, with installations in over 40 countries worldwide. Key sales geographies include Europe, where they hold a leadership position, particularly in Germany, France, Spain, and the Nordic region (Sweden, Norway, Finland). In the Americas, they are actively rebuilding their market position, with significant orders from Canada and a focus on the U.S. market. Other markets mentioned include Turkey, Mexico, Austria, Netherlands, Poland, South Africa, UK & Ireland. The company also sees 'selective upsides' in markets such as Australia.
- How Key Themes May Help/Hurt
- Nordex benefits significantly from the global build-out of renewable energy, particularly onshore wind, driven by strong fundamentals in Europe and North America, increasing electrification, and industrial demand. This trend supports long-term growth and the need for their wind turbine systems. However, the company can be hurt by bottlenecks in grid deployment, permitting delays in key markets like the U.S., and policy changes in support schemes for renewables, such as those in Germany, which could introduce market uncertainty and affect turbine pricing. Geopolitical risks, such as potential disruptions to supply chains from countries like China and Turkey, also pose a threat to their operations and costs.
3 Main Long-Term Bull Details
- Strong and Growing Onshore Wind Market: The onshore wind market is expected to grow steadily throughout the decade, driven by increasing electrification, industrial demand, and strong fundamentals in core regions like Europe and North America. Nordex is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth.
- Demonstrated Operational and Financial Improvement: Nordex has successfully concluded a transformational period, exceeding its medium-term EBITDA margin target ahead of schedule, generating positive free cash flow, and achieving record order intake. This indicates a robust and increasingly profitable business model.
- Commitment to Shareholder Returns and Higher Margin Ambition: The introduction of Nordex's first shareholder return policy (targeting a minimum annual return of EUR 50 million) and an upgraded midterm EBITDA margin ambition of 10% to 12% signals confidence in sustained profitability and a commitment to delivering value to shareholders.
3 Main Long-Term Bear Details
- Market and Regulatory Uncertainty: Changes in support schemes for renewables, such as those being planned in Germany, and permitting delays in markets like the U.S., can introduce uncertainty, slow down project development, and potentially impact turbine pricing and order intake.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Geopolitical Risks: Despite diversification efforts, Nordex's reliance on a global supply chain, including significant sourcing from China and production in Turkey, exposes it to potential disruptions, increased freight costs, and geopolitical tensions.
- Intense Competition and Price Pressure: The wind turbine market remains highly competitive, with ongoing pressure on turbine pricing in auctions. While Nordex aims for margin neutrality, sustained price compression could impact profitability, especially if not fully offset by efficiency gains.
- Competitors And Differentiation
- Nordex operates in a competitive global market for onshore wind turbines. Major competitors include Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, Goldwind, Enercon, GE Renewable Energy, Envision Energy, Suzlon, and Mingyang Smart Energy. Nordex differentiates itself through its competitive product range, particularly the Delta4000 platform, which focuses on high-yield and cost-efficient solutions for various wind conditions and grid requirements. They also emphasize strong customer relationships, a robust ability to deliver in their core regions, and an evolutionary product strategy that minimizes service requirements and optimizes energy generation costs.
- Recent Performance & What The Market'S Focused On
- Nordex reported a strong Q4 2025 and full-year 2025, concluding a 'transformational period.' The company delivered record order intake of 10.2 gigawatts, achieved an 8.4% EBITDA margin, and generated EUR 863 million of free cash flow, exceeding its medium-term margin target ahead of schedule. The net cash position exceeded EUR 1.6 billion at year-end. For 2026, Nordex guided for sales between EUR 8.2 billion and EUR 9 billion and an EBITDA margin in the range of 8% to 11%. The market is focused on the company's continued sustainable improvement, capital allocation strategy (including the new shareholder return policy), and the upgraded strategic midterm EBITDA margin target of 10% to 12%. Recent analyst downgrades, despite strong performance, highlight market focus on the stock's significant rally and potential for profit-taking.
- Revenue Segments And Estimated Mix
- Projects — Mix: ~90.4%; Source: Q4 2025 transcript and search result [16]; Trend: Sales in Projects segment increased by 17.7% in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024.
- Services — Mix: ~9.6%; Source: Q4 2025 transcript and search result [16]; Trend: Service revenue grew by 3.1% in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024.
- Product Brands
- Delta4000 series
- N175/6.X
- N163/5.X
- N163/6.X
- N169/5.X
- N149/4.0-4.5
- N149/5.X
- N155/4.5
- N133/4.8
- N131/3900
- N117/3600
- N100 Delta
Bull / Bear DetailsNordex SE is poised for accelerated profitable growth, driven by its strong market position in Europe and strategic expansion in the Americas. The company excee
Thesis
Nordex SE is poised for accelerated profitable growth, driven by its strong market position in Europe and strategic expansion in the Americas. The company exceeded 2025 financial targets, generated robust free cash flow, and introduced its first shareholder return policy. With an upgraded midterm EBITDA margin ambition of 10-12% and a solid order book, Nordex demonstrates operational excellence and financial discipline, making it a compelling long-term investment as of April 24, 2026.
Bull case
Nordex delivered a landmark 2025, exceeding its medium-term margin target ahead of schedule with an 8.4% EBITDA margin and generating EUR 863 million in free cash flow. The company's strong operational performance and financial discipline are further underscored by its upgraded midterm EBITDA margin ambition of 10-12%, signaling sustained profitability and value creation.
Nordex maintains a strong competitive position, holding the #2 global market share and leadership in Europe for the fourth consecutive year. Strategic diversification is evident with orders from 12 countries and a rebuilding market share in the Americas, particularly in Canada. The ambition to achieve a 20% market share in the sizable U.S. market further underpins future growth.
The introduction of Nordex's first shareholder return policy, targeting a minimum annual return of EUR 50 million starting in 2027, marks a significant milestone. This, combined with a record net cash position exceeding EUR 1.6 billion, demonstrates a commitment to disciplined capital allocation and returning value to shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet for future opportunities.
Bear case
Despite strong overall performance, Nordex faces risks related to order intake and project execution. The company noted a weaker Q1 2026 order intake compared to the prior year. Substantial delays in securing new orders, obtaining permits, or facing construction and installation delays pose significant downside risks to revenue recognition and profitability.
The German market, a key region, presents potential pricing pressures. Changes to the renewables support scheme, including a move to CFDs, could lead to turbine price negotiations. While management aims to avoid a 'price war,' the need for all stakeholders to contribute to project viability could impact margins, challenging the midterm profitability targets.
Supply chain disruptions and operational challenges remain a concern. Past issues, such as temporary delays at a Turkish supplier, highlight vulnerabilities. Furthermore, the massive installation volumes anticipated in Germany will strain logistics, transportation, and permitting processes, potentially leading to unforeseen costs or project delays across the industry.
Bull / Bear Case
- Bear Case
- Despite strong past performance, Nordex faces significant near-term risks. The company anticipates a weaker Q1 2026 order intake compared to the prior year, posing a risk to achieving its 2026 revenue guidance if new orders are substantially delayed. Persistent permitting bottlenecks in the U.S. continue to hinder the conversion of pipeline into firm orders, impacting growth ambitions. Furthermore, potential changes to Germany's renewables support scheme could lead to turbine pricing pressures, challenging midterm profitability targets. Operational challenges, including supply chain disruptions and the logistical complexities of massive installation volumes in Germany, could lead to unforeseen costs and project delays, impacting overall execution and margins. Global wind power additions are also projected to decline by 6% in 2026, driven by slowdowns in China and U.S. policy challenges.
- Bull Case
- Nordex SE is poised for accelerated profitable growth, driven by a landmark 2025 performance that exceeded medium-term margin targets with an 8.4% EBITDA and generated EUR 863 million in free cash flow. The company boasts a record order intake of 10.2 gigawatts and a strengthened balance sheet with over EUR 1.6 billion net cash. Management projects continued growth with 2026 sales guidance of EUR 8.2-9 billion and an upgraded midterm EBITDA margin ambition of 10-12%. Nordex maintains a strong market position, being #2 globally and a leader in Europe, while strategically expanding in the Americas. The introduction of its first shareholder return policy, targeting a minimum annual return of EUR 50 million from 2027, underscores a commitment to disciplined capital allocation and shareholder value.
- More Compelling & Why
- Bear. The stock is currently trading at approximately €45.66, which is above the average analyst price target of €42.30. Its EV/EBITDA of 13.36x-14.1x is at the higher end compared to some peers and the sector average. The strongest argument for the bear case is that the market has already priced in much of the positive outlook, while immediate headwinds like a weaker Q1 2026 order intake and persistent U.S. permitting delays present tangible risks to achieving ambitious targets. A sustained acceleration in U.S. federal permitting and a clear upward revision of analyst price targets above current levels would flip my view.
Key Factors
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | What To Watch | What It Signals | Where/How To Track | Free Alt Data | Paid Alt Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 EBITDA Margin Guidance Reaffirmation or Update | The EBITDA margin guidance reflects management's confidence in operational efficiency, pricing power, and cost control, directly influencing investor expectations for profitability and the upgraded midterm target. | Any changes or reaffirmation of the 2026 EBITDA margin guidance range (8% to 11%) during the Q1 2026 earnings call. | Bullish if the 2026 EBITDA margin guidance is reaffirmed at the midpoint or raised. Bearish if the 2026 EBITDA margin guidance is lowered, especially below the 8% lower end. | Nordex SE Q1 2026 Interim Report and Earnings Call, expected around May 10, 2026. | Public statements from competitors (e.g., Vestas, Siemens Gamesa) on their margin outlook, indicating industry-wide trends. | S&P Global Market Intelligence: Consensus EBITDA margin estimates for Nordex and peers; FactSet: Analyst consensus updates post-earnings. |
| Progress on U.S. Federal Permit Clearances for Onshore Wind Projects | Resolution of permitting bottlenecks in the U.S. is critical for unlocking significant project pipelines, enabling Nordex to capitalize on the anticipated 'super cycle' demand and achieve its ambitious market share targets. | Official announcements from U.S. federal agencies (e.g., DOE, BLM) regarding streamlined or accelerated permitting processes for onshore wind. Specific project approvals or significant reductions in approval timelines. | Bullish if there are concrete policy changes or a noticeable increase in the pace of federal permit approvals for large-scale onshore wind projects. Bearish if permitting delays persist or new regulatory hurdles emerge, hindering market growth. | U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) press releases, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) announcements, White House statements on infrastructure and clean energy. Industry association reports (e.g., American Clean Power Association). | Government websites (e.g., regulations.gov) for public comments on proposed permitting rule changes; Industry news outlets (e.g., Recharge News, Windpower Monthly) for updates on U.S. project developments. | S&P Global Platts: North American power market intelligence; Argus Media: U.S. energy policy and project tracking. |
| Service Business EBIT Margin Trajectory towards 20% Target | The service business provides stable, high-margin revenue and is a key lever for Nordex's overall profitability improvement and its upgraded midterm EBITDA margin ambition of 10-12%. | Reported Service EBIT margin for Q1 2026. Commentary on drivers of service profitability (e.g., efficiency, availability levels, contract terms). | Bullish if Q1 2026 Service EBIT margin continues its expansion trend, moving closer to or exceeding the 19% achieved in Q4 2025, signaling strong progress towards the 20% target. Bearish if Service EBIT margin stagnates or declines, indicating challenges in efficiency or pricing. | Nordex SE Q1 2026 Interim Report and Earnings Call, expected around May 10, 2026. | Public reports from other wind turbine OEMs (e.g., Vestas, Siemens Gamesa) on their service segment performance and margins. | IHS Markit: Wind turbine O&M market analysis; BloombergNEF: Global wind service market forecasts. |
| Q1 2026 Free Cash Flow (FCF) Generation | Consistent positive free cash flow is vital for financial stability, supporting the newly introduced shareholder return policy, and enabling strategic investments without increasing leverage. | Reported Free Cash Flow for Q1 2026. Management commentary on FCF outlook for the full year 2026, especially regarding the 50-60% EBITDA to cash conversion expectation. | Bullish if Q1 2026 FCF is positive and strong (e.g., >EUR 150 million), indicating healthy cash generation. Bearish if Q1 2026 FCF is negative or significantly below expectations, potentially impacting future capital allocation. | Nordex SE Q1 2026 Interim Report and Earnings Call, expected around May 10, 2026. | Central bank interest rate decisions (ECB, Fed) impacting cost of capital and financing for projects. | Refinitiv Eikon: Nordex cash flow statements and FCF projections; Bloomberg Terminal: Working capital and CapEx trends for Nordex. |
| Q1 2026 Turbine Order Intake (GW and EUR value) | Strong order intake is crucial for revenue visibility, factory utilization, and confirming market demand, directly impacting Nordex's ability to meet its 2026 sales guidance and midterm growth ambitions. | Total turbine order intake in Gigawatts (GW) and Euros (EUR) for Q1 2026. Compare against Q1 2025 (3.6 GW / EUR 3.2 billion). | Bullish if Q1 2026 turbine order intake exceeds 3.6 GW and EUR 3.2 billion. Bearish if Q1 2026 turbine order intake is significantly below 3.0 GW and EUR 2.5 billion, indicating a substantial slowdown. | Nordex SE Q1 2026 Interim Report and Earnings Call, expected around May 10, 2026. | Industry reports from GWEC (Global Wind Energy Council) or WindEurope for overall market trends and regional order activity. | BloombergNEF: Global Wind Turbine Order Intake Data; Wood Mackenzie: Wind Turbine Order and Pricing Database. |
Key Reported Metrics
| Metric | Why It Matters | Last Period |
|---|---|---|
| Turbine Order Intake (MW) | Turbine Order Intake provides strong visibility into future revenue and production volumes. Record order intake signals robust demand and underpins the company's growth trajectory, crucial for meeting its 2026 guidance and midterm ambitions. | 9.2% |
| EBITDA Margin | EBITDA Margin is crucial for assessing Nordex's operational efficiency and profitability. The company has a new midterm target of 10-12%, making continued margin expansion a key focus for investors and a driver of shareholder value. | 146.94% |
| Total Sales | Total Sales is a primary indicator of the company's market penetration and operational scale. Strong sales growth demonstrates successful project execution and demand for Nordex's wind turbines and services, directly impacting revenue and profitability targets. | 16% |
Key QuestionsWill Nordex's Q1 2026 order intake and subsequent sales momentum be sufficient to confidently achieve its 2026 revenue and EBITDA margin guidance, particularly
Will Nordex's Q1 2026 order intake and subsequent sales momentum be sufficient to confidently achieve its 2026 revenue and EBITDA margin guidance, particularly given the early indication of a weaker Q1 order intake compared to the prior year?
- Question 2
How quickly will U.S. federal permitting for onshore wind projects accelerate, allowing Nordex to convert its strategic positioning and pipeline into firm orders and contribute meaningfully to its midterm growth ambitions?
- Question 3
Can Nordex maintain its strong profitability in the German market amidst potential changes to the renewables support scheme and competitive pricing pressures, without engaging in a 'price war' that could erode its midterm EBITDA margin targets?
Rerating Thresholds
| Metric | What'S Needed For Rerating | Why It Matters | Earnings Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA Margin | For Nordex SE to rerate higher, its EBITDA Margin needs to consistently hit 10% or higher, demonstrating a clear and accelerated trajectory towards the upper end of its upgraded midterm ambition of 10-12%. The company's Q1 2026 EBITDA margin of 8.2% was a positive step, but sustained performance above the midpoint of its 2026 guidance (8-11%) would be crucial. | Consistently achieving an EBITDA Margin of 10% or more would confirm Nordex's sustained operational excellence and financial discipline, exceeding market expectations and validating its upgraded midterm profitability targets. This would enhance investor confidence in the company's long-term value creation and competitive position, driving a positive revaluation of the stock. | 2026-04-27 |
| Turbine Order Intake (MW) | Turbine Order Intake (MW) needs to consistently exceed 2.5 GW per quarter, demonstrating a clear acceleration towards surpassing the record full-year 2025 order intake of 10.2 GW. Specifically, a quarterly order intake approaching or exceeding 3.6 GW, as previously identified as a bullish signal, would drive a significant rerating. | Hiting this threshold signals robust demand and strong future revenue visibility, directly supporting Nordex's thesis of accelerated profitable growth. Investors are watching for sustained order momentum to confirm market leadership and operational excellence, driving a positive rerating based on enhanced long-term profitability and valuation. | 2026-04-27 |
| Total Sales | For Nordex SE's stock to rerate higher, the company would need to demonstrate a clear trajectory towards exceeding its reaffirmed full-year 2026 sales guidance of EUR 8.2 billion to EUR 9.0 billion. Specifically, consistently achieving year-over-year sales growth above the upper end of its 9% to 19% guidance range in subsequent quarters, or an upward revision of the full-year sales outlook by management, would be a key catalyst. This would build upon the positive Q1 2026 sales of EUR 1.6 billion, which already surpassed analyst consensus estimates of EUR 1.54 billion. | Exceeding the upper end of the total sales guidance would validate Nordex's accelerated profitable growth thesis and strong market position. It would signal robust demand for its wind turbines and services, potentially leading to upward revisions in analyst earnings estimates and a higher valuation, thereby driving a positive rerating. | 2026-04-27 |
Earnings Transcript Summary
· 2025Q4 Earnings Call
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. **Achieving and exceeding profitability targets**: Management highlighted delivering and exceeding their medium-term margin target ahead of schedule, achieving an 8.4% EBITDA margin in 2025, and upgrading their new strategic midterm EBITDA margin ambition to 10% to 12%. 2. **Generating strong free cash flow and strengthening the balance sheet**: Nordex generated EUR 863 million of free cash flow and achieved a net cash position exceeding EUR 1.6 billion at year-end 2025, emphasizing the strengthening of their financial foundation and strategic flexibility. 3. **Introducing a shareholder return policy and disciplined capital allocation**: The company introduced its first shareholder return policy, targeting a minimum annual shareholder return of EUR 50 million (to be delivered through dividends or share buybacks starting in 2027), reflecting a commitment to sustainable capital allocation while maintaining financial flexibility and prioritizing operational and strategic growth opportunities. | The overall takeaway of the call was highly positive and confident. Nordex concluded a 'transformational year' in 2025, achieving record order intake, exceeding its medium-term margin target ahead of schedule, and generating strong free cash flow. The company strengthened its balance sheet significantly and introduced its first-ever shareholder return policy. Management provided optimistic guidance for 2026 and upgraded its midterm EBITDA margin ambition to 10-12%, signaling continued profitable growth and financial discipline. While acknowledging potential market challenges and risks, the tone remained confident in the company's strategy, competitive positioning, and ability to deliver on its ambitious targets. | For Q3 2025, Nordex's overall sales were approximately in line with the prior year, indicating around 0% year-over-year growth. The Service segment revenue increased by 9.5% year-over-year in Q3 2025. | 1. **Capital Allocation / Shareholder Return Policy**: Analysts questioned the rationale behind the EUR 50 million minimum annual shareholder return, given the strong cash position and anticipated future cash flow, asking why the number wasn't higher and how the substantial cash balance would be deployed. Management responded by emphasizing the priority of maintaining a 'balance sheet fortress' for market cycles and opportunities, funding core organic investments, and supporting customers. They clarified that EUR 50 million is a *minimum* and the framework is a first step, open to refinement, balancing business needs with shareholder returns. 2. **German Market Changes & Turbine Pricing**: Analysts inquired about the potential impact of planned changes to Germany's renewables support scheme (grid access, CFDs) on turbine pricing and how Nordex planned to remain margin neutral. Management expressed a positive view of the German market's significant volume (10 GW/year) and stated that wind onshore is the cheapest energy solution. They indicated that the midterm target already considers these market evolutions and that all stakeholders need to contribute to making projects viable without deteriorating margins. 3. **Midterm Margin Target Robustness & Cost Streamlining**: Analysts pressed on the robustness of the 10-12% midterm EBITDA margin target, asking how much was within Nordex's control versus market activity, and sought more details on specific cost streamlining initiatives. Management clarified that the midterm target is a 'through-cycle ambition' subject to market volume, with an assumption of growing with the market. For cost streamlining, they highlighted staying lean, growing overhead substantially less than revenue, and leveraging volume growth to reduce underutilization costs. | Overall Sales: Nordex reported a 16% year-over-year increase in sales for Q4 2025, reaching approximately EUR 2.5 billion compared to EUR 2.2 billion in Q4 2024. The year-over-year growth for the Service segment's revenue was not explicitly stated in the transcript for Q4 2025. |
Transcript Tidbits
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordex maintained its #2 global position and achieved leadership in Europe for the fourth consecutive year. The company is rebuilding its market position in the Americas, with Canadian orders contributing to an 11% market share in 2025. Order intake in Q4 2025 came from 12 different countries, demonstrating strong diversification. Nordex plans to maintain and grow its presence in Europe, India, and China, while also ramping up operations in the U.S. The U.S. market is expected to become a sizable market comparable to Germany in the medium term, with an ambition to achieve a 20% market share there. | Nordex maintained its #2 global position and achieved leadership in Europe for the fourth year in a row, reflecting its competitive product range and strong customer relationships. The company aims to avoid a 'price war' in the German market. While aspiring for its service business EBIT margin to cross 20%, Nordex acknowledges it does not currently have the size to be a market leader in service profitability. | Onshore wind installations are projected to grow steadily throughout the decade, driven by strong fundamentals in Europe and North America, increasing electrification and industrial demand, and selective upsides in markets like Australia. Germany is expected to deliver 10 gigawatts annually for the foreseeable future, making it a massive market. Wind onshore is highlighted as the cheapest energy solution for Central Europe. Grid deployment is identified as a bottleneck for electrification in Europe. The U.S. market is experiencing a 'super cycle' energy demand increase, largely driven by data centers, where wind plays a significant role. The industry faces challenges with massive installation volumes in Germany, requiring support from all levels of government for permits and logistics. | Nordex expects profitable growth to accelerate in 2026, with sales guidance between EUR 8.2 billion and EUR 9 billion (9% to 19% year-on-year growth) and an EBITDA margin of 8% to 11%. The company introduced its first shareholder return policy, targeting a minimum annual return of EUR 50 million through dividends or share buybacks, with the first payout planned for 2027. The midterm EBITDA margin ambition has been upgraded to 10% to 12%, driven by continued volume growth in Europe and the Americas, higher service profitability (crossing 20% EBIT margin), and further efficiency measures. Nordex plans to maintain its current Delta4000 platform with minor evolutions, not seeing an immediate need for a new platform in the medium term. | Electrification and industrial demand, energy independence, grid infrastructure as a bottleneck for renewables, the role of wind energy in meeting demand from data centers, and geopolitical considerations impacting supply chain strategies (e.g., China, Net-Zero Industry Act). | 2025 has been a landmark year. We delivered and exceeded our medium-term margin target ahead of schedule, generated positive free cash flow, achieved record order intake and strengthened our balance sheet. We delivered record order intake of 10.2 gigawatts, reached an 8.4% EBITDA margin and generated EUR 863 million of free cash flow. In Europe, we continue our strong momentum and achieved leadership position for the fourth year in a row. Our turbine order book ended the year at EUR 10.1 billion, up 30% versus the same period of 2024. we are upgrading our midterm EBITDA margin ambition to 10% to 12%. Nordex brand is amazingly well perceived now by U.S. stakeholders. wind onshore is by far the cheapest energy solution for Central Europe. | we see a weaker quarter compared to the same period of last year. substantial delay on the order intake... is the biggest risk. delays, either due to us or to our customers or to permits, installation delays, construction delays. And the third is disruptions in supply chain. the volumes that we are going to install in Germany are massive and the number of special permits and the disruption in the highways at night, and this is going to be a challenge for the whole industry indeed. we don't plan or I think it's advisable to enter here into a price war. U.S. projects are pending, permits from the federal government. And this is something that honestly, nobody has a view of when those permits are going to flow. |
Notes
| Date | Comment | Comment Type | Comment Sentiment | Link | IS CHANGE | Price Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | Nordex reported a record 2025, exceeding margin targets and generating strong free cash flow. The company issued positive 2026 guidance and introduced its first shareholder return policy, alongside an upgraded midterm EBITDA margin target of 10-12%. The market reacted very positively, with the stock surging over 23% (t+2 days), significantly outperforming SPY, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's performance and outlook. | Earnings Transcript | Neutral | False | +23.36% (vs SPY: +23.56%) |
Upcoming Events
| Catalyst ID | Estimated Timing | Estimated Date Start | Estimated Date End | Catalyst | Why It Matters | Ticker Or Theme Specific | Transcript Date | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDX1.XETRA_8b46573f | 2026 guidance | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Nordex's achievement of its 2026 financial guidance, including sales between EUR 8.2 billion and EUR 9 billion and an EBITDA margin in the range of 8% to 11%. | Meeting or exceeding these targets would confirm continued profitable growth and operational efficiency, positively impacting investor sentiment and valuation. Missing targets would have a negative impact. | Ticker | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript |
| NDX1.XETRA_4a237b75 | first payout in 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 2027-12-31 | Nordex's first annual shareholder return payout of a minimum of EUR 50 million, to be delivered either through dividends or share buybacks. | This marks a significant shift in capital allocation, signaling financial strength and commitment to shareholder returns, which could positively impact investor sentiment and attract new investors. | Ticker | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript |
| NDX1.XETRA_a16be0b0 | new strategic midterm target and upgraded EBITDA margin of 10% to 12% | 2026-01-01 | 2029-12-31 | Nordex achieving its upgraded midterm EBITDA margin ambition of 10% to 12%. | Reaching this target would demonstrate sustained profitability improvement and operational leverage, significantly enhancing the company's valuation and long-term investor confidence. | Ticker | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript |
| NDX1.XETRA_5929c9f9 | when those permits are going to flow | 2026-04-24 | 2027-12-31 | Federal government clearing permits for wind projects in the U.S., which is currently a bottleneck for firm orders for Nordex. | Clearing permits would unlock project development, leading to increased order intake for Nordex and driving revenue growth in the U.S. market. Continued delays would be bearish. | Theme | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript |
| NDX1.XETRA_ea5daebb | new policy next year | 2027-01-01 | 2027-12-31 | Implementation of the German Economy Ministry's planned changes to the renewables support scheme and the subsequent normalization of auction pricing for onshore wind projects. | These changes could impact turbine pricing and project viability in Nordex's largest market. A smooth transition and stable, profitable pricing would be bullish, while adverse changes could negatively affect order intake and margins. | Theme | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript |
| NDX1.XETRA_69ecb97d | as we speak, ramping up blade production in Turkiye | 2026-02-25 | 2026-06-30 | Successful ramp-up of blade production in Turkey, fully derisking the supply chain situation. | Resolving supply chain issues ensures production stability, reduces costs, and supports timely project delivery, positively impacting revenue and margins. | Ticker | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript |
| NDX1.XETRA_47d646fb | Q1 and Q2 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-06-30 | Nordex securing sufficient order intake in Q1 and Q2 2026 to underpin its full-year 2026 revenue and margin guidance. | Order intake directly translates to future revenue and margin recognition. Failure to secure sufficient orders could lead to underutilization and impact financial performance. | Ticker | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript |