MDLZ
T2Mondelez International, Inc.
OverviewMondelez International, Inc. manufactures and markets snack food and beverage products globally. Its portfolio, with biscuits representing nearly half of sales
Mondelez International, Inc. manufactures and markets snack food and beverage products globally. Its portfolio, with biscuits representing nearly half of sales and chocolate about a third, includes iconic brands like Oreo, Cadbury, and Milka. These products are sold to various retail food outlets across Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
- What They Do (Plain English & Analogies)
- Mondelez International is like a global snack shop that makes and sells many of your favorite treats. Think of them as the company behind the cookies you dunk in milk, the chocolate bars you crave, and the chewing gum you pop. They operate all over the world, bringing these familiar snacks to supermarkets, convenience stores, and online shoppers.
- Very Brief History
- Mondelez International, Inc. was incorporated in 2000, originally known as Kraft Foods Inc. In October 2012, the company changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. following a spin-off of its North American grocery business, focusing on its global snacking portfolio.
- "Street Stereotype"
- Mondelez is generally perceived as a stable, global consumer staples company with a strong portfolio of iconic snack brands. Investors often view it as a defensive play due to consistent demand for its products, though it faces challenges related to commodity price volatility (like cocoa) and evolving consumer health trends.
- Subsidiaries On Linked In*
- {"subsidiaries":[]}
- Customer Sectors & Example Clients
- Mondelez's customers are primarily in the retail food sector. These include supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets. They also serve customers through e-commerce channels. Specific top companies that are clients would be major global and regional retailers such as Walmart, Carrefour, Tesco, Kroger, and Amazon.
- New Customers / Segments They'Re Targeting
- The company is targeting consumers seeking "premium and better for you" snacking options, as well as "on the go" formats, particularly within the wealthier consumer segment in North America. They are also expanding their reach by pushing harder into value, club, and online retail channels where they are currently under-indexed.
- Supply Chain And Sourcing Geographies
- Mondelez is actively diversifying its cocoa supply to mitigate long-term risks. While traditionally heavily reliant on West Africa (Ghana and Ivory Coast, which account for 60-65% of global supply), they are increasing sourcing from Latin America, particularly Ecuador and Brazil, and also from Asia, including India and Indonesia. In Brazil, they are forming long-term agreements with large farms, and in Ecuador, they are working with smaller farmers. The company is also investing in and supporting the development of lab-grown cocoa to address climate and social concerns in the supply chain.
- Sales Geographies And Expansion Plans
- Mondelez currently sells its products across Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. Specific markets mentioned in the transcript include India, Brazil, Australia, South Africa, China, Mexico, Argentina, the US, and various European markets (including Germany, the Nordics, and the UK). The company expects strong volume growth from AMEA (Asia, Middle East, Africa) and Latin America (excluding Argentina) in 2026. They are also focusing on improving volume performance in Europe and easing volume declines in North America. No specific new country expansions were explicitly stated, but the focus is on strengthening existing market positions and driving volume growth within these regions.
- How Key Themes May Help/Hurt
- The increasing adoption of GLP-1 drugs, which promote weight loss and reduce appetite, poses a long-term risk to Mondelez's business, as many of its products are high-calorie snacks. While the company currently sees a "negligible" impact (0.5-1.5% effect on overall volumes over ten years with 10-20% US adoption), widespread and sustained use of these drugs could lead to a structural decline in demand for traditional snack foods, impacting sales and profitability. The theme's bearish thesis directly aligns with this potential headwind.
3 Main Long-Term Bull Details
- Strong Global Brand Portfolio: Mondelez owns a diverse portfolio of iconic and well-loved global and local snack brands (e.g., Oreo, Cadbury, Milka), providing a strong foundation for market leadership and consumer loyalty across various geographies.
- Emerging Market Growth Potential: The company continues to see strong momentum and growth opportunities in emerging markets like India, Brazil, and China, which are expected to be significant drivers of future volume and revenue expansion.
- Strategic Investment and Innovation: Mondelez is committed to substantial investments in brand building, innovation (e.g., Biscoff collaboration), and supply chain modernization, aiming to drive volume growth, improve efficiency, and adapt to evolving consumer preferences and market dynamics.
3 Main Long-Term Bear Details
- Commodity Price Volatility (especially Cocoa): Significant fluctuations in key commodity prices, particularly cocoa, can lead to substantial cost headwinds and impact profitability, as seen in 2025 and the unexpected recent decline affecting 2026 coverage.
- Evolving Consumer Health Trends & GLP-1 Impact: The growing consumer focus on health and wellness, coupled with the increasing adoption of weight-loss drugs like GLP-1s, presents a structural challenge to demand for traditional "unhealthy" snack categories, potentially leading to long-term volume erosion.
- Competitive and Pricing Pressures: Intense competition in the global snacking market, coupled with consumer sensitivity to price increases (especially in developed markets like Northern Europe and North America), can lead to pricing pressures, market share loss, and the need for significant promotional activity, impacting margins.
- Competitors And Differentiation
- Mondelez competes with other major global food and beverage companies, particularly in the snacking and confectionery categories. Key competitors include Nestlé, The Hershey Company, Mars, Ferrero, Kellogg's, and PepsiCo (in snacks). Mondelez differentiates itself through its strong portfolio of iconic global and local brands, significant investment in advertising and consumer engagement, innovation (e.g., Biscoff collaboration), and strategic use of price pack architecture (PPA) to meet diverse consumer affordability needs. They are also investing in supply chain modernization to improve efficiency and flexibility.
- Recent Performance & What The Market'S Focused On
- Mondelez reported a resilient 2025, particularly in the chocolate market, with strong performance in emerging markets. However, Northern European chocolate markets and the North American biscuit category experienced higher-than-expected elasticity and soft volumes, respectively. The market is currently focused on the precipitous and sudden decline in cocoa prices, its potential impact on competitive reactions and 2026 profitability (due to higher-priced existing coverage), and the company's ability to drive volume growth through increased brand investments and strategic pricing adjustments, especially as it aims for a significant margin uplift in chocolate in 2027. The subdued US biscuit category and customer negotiation disruptions in Europe are also key areas of attention.
- Revenue Segments And Estimated Mix
- Biscuits — Mix: ~40%; Source: 2023 10-K filing; Trend: Significant segment, discussed in transcript as soft in North America
- Chocolate — Mix: ~35%; Source: 2023 10-K filing; Trend: Significant segment, heavily discussed in transcript regarding cocoa prices and strategy
- Gum & Candy — Mix: ~10%; Source: 2023 10-K filing; Trend: n/m
- Cheese & Grocery — Mix: ~5%; Source: 2023 10-K filing; Trend: n/m
- Beverages — Mix: ~10%; Source: 2023 10-K filing; Trend: Mainly powdered beverages like Tang
- Product Brands
- Cadbury
- Milka
- Toblerone
- Oreo
- belVita
- LU
- Halls
- Trident
- Tang
- Perfect Bar
- Cliff Bar (including Builders Bar)
- Biscoff (collaboration)
Bull / Bear DetailsMondelez faces significant near-term headwinds, particularly in North America due to weak consumer confidence and a soft biscuit category, and in Northern Europ
Thesis
Mondelez faces significant near-term headwinds, particularly in North America due to weak consumer confidence and a soft biscuit category, and in Northern European chocolate markets experiencing higher-than-expected elasticity. While the long-term outlook for cocoa margins is positive, short-term competitive reactions to recent cocoa price declines and ongoing customer negotiations in Europe create uncertainty. Despite increased brand investments and emerging market strength, the bear case remains more compelling as of April 24, 2026, given these immediate operational and market pressures.
Bull case
Mondelez anticipates a significant uplift in chocolate margins in 2027 as cocoa prices normalize to historic levels, allowing for substantial reinvestment in working media and brand building. This increased investment, planned for both 2026 and 2027, aims to drive volume growth and market share, particularly in developed markets where consumption frequency has been affected.
Emerging markets are expected to continue their strong growth trajectory, potentially exceeding current guidance, with a greater contribution from volume and mix in 2026. Additionally, Mondelez is strategically expanding its presence in under-indexed channels like value, club, and online, and pushing premium offerings, which are experiencing double-digit growth, to capture new consumer segments.
Mondelez's internal modeling suggests a negligible long-term impact from GLP-1 drugs on its overall volumes, estimating only a 0.5% to 1.5% effect over a ten-year period even with significant adoption rates. This mitigates a major industry-wide concern for "unhealthy food" companies, allowing Mondelez to focus on its core growth strategies.
Bear case
North America continues to be a difficult operating environment, characterized by near-historic low consumer confidence and affordability concerns. The biscuit category remains subdued, with volumes down 3-4% in late 2025, and is expected to remain soft through the first half of 2026, impacting overall regional performance.
European chocolate markets, particularly in Northern Europe (Germany, Nordics, UK), exhibited higher-than-expected price elasticity in 2025, necessitating price and PPA adjustments in 2026. The sudden and significant decline in cocoa prices creates short-term pressure for Mondelez (due to higher-priced coverage) and risks unexpected competitive reactions, further complicating the market.
Mondelez faces short-term margin headwinds in 2026, primarily due to its 2026 cocoa coverage being at a higher cost than current spot prices, and a one-time inventory accounting adjustment impacting Q1. Additionally, anticipated customer negotiation disruptions in Europe during the first part of the year could further pressure top-line performance and profitability.
Bull / Bear Case
- Bear Case
- Mondelez faces significant near-term headwinds, particularly in North America, characterized by near-historic low consumer confidence and affordability concerns, with the biscuit category remaining subdued and expected to stay soft through the first half of 2026. European chocolate markets, especially in Northern Europe, exhibited higher-than-expected price elasticity in 2025, necessitating price and PPA adjustments in 2026. The sudden and significant decline in cocoa prices creates short-term pressure for Mondelez due to higher-priced coverage for 2026 and risks unexpected competitive reactions, further complicating the market. The company projects a decline in EPS and a 60 basis points contraction in gross margins for fiscal year 2026, driven by EBIT margin deterioration in Europe and North America, alongside expected volume declines.
- Bull Case
- Mondelez anticipates a significant uplift in chocolate margins in 2027 as cocoa prices normalize to historic levels, enabling substantial reinvestment in working media and brand building. This increased investment, planned for both 2026 and 2027, aims to drive volume growth and market share, particularly in developed markets where consumption frequency has been affected. Emerging markets are expected to continue their strong growth trajectory, potentially exceeding current guidance, with a greater contribution from volume and mix in 2026. Additionally, Mondelez is strategically expanding its presence in under-indexed channels like value, club, and online, and pushing premium offerings, which are experiencing double-digit growth, to capture new consumer segments. The company's internal modeling suggests a negligible long-term impact from GLP-1 drugs on its overall volumes, mitigating a major industry-wide concern.
- More Compelling & Why
- Bear. MDLZ's TTM P/E ratio of approximately 29.7-30.35 is 22-33% above its 10-year median, suggesting an elevated valuation. The strongest argument for the bear case is the projected decline in EPS and gross margin contraction for fiscal year 2026, coupled with a high dividend payout ratio exceeding 100%, indicating dividends are not fully covered by earnings. This suggests the current valuation does not adequately reflect near-term operational headwinds. My view would flip if Mondelez demonstrates consistent volume growth reacceleration in developed markets (North America and Northern Europe) in the first half of 2026, alongside a more favorable competitive pricing environment in European chocolate.
Key Factors
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | What To Watch | What It Signals | Where/How To Track | Free Alt Data | Paid Alt Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continued or exacerbated volume decline in the North American biscuit category beyond Q1 2026. | The North American biscuit category is a significant segment for Mondelez. Sustained volume weakness indicates deeper consumer affordability issues or competitive pressures, directly impacting overall revenue and profitability, challenging the company's growth outlook. | Mondelez's reported organic volume growth for North America, specifically the biscuit category, in Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings. Watch for a continuation of the 3-4% volume decline seen in late 2025. | Bearish if North American biscuit volumes decline by more than 2% year-over-year in Q1 2026 and show no sequential improvement in Q2 2026. | Mondelez Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 earnings reports and conference calls (expected late April/early May for Q1, late July/early August for Q2). | US Census Bureau: Retail sales data for food and beverage stores; Consumer confidence indices (e.g., Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index). | Circana (IRI/NielsenIQ): US biscuit category volume sales % change; Placer.ai: Foot traffic trends for major grocery retailers carrying Mondelez products. |
| Faster-than-expected acceleration in GLP-1 drug adoption rates, particularly for oral medications, leading to a more pronounced impact on 'unhealthy' snacking volumes. | While Mondelez projects negligible long-term impact, rapid GLP-1 usage could quickly shift consumer habits away from high-calorie snacks. This directly challenges the company's core business model, potentially accelerating declines in key product categories. | Quarterly reports from major GLP-1 drug manufacturers (e.g., Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly) on prescription volumes and patient uptake, especially for oral formulations. Look for adoption rates exceeding current projections. | Bearish if GLP-1 prescription growth rates (YoY) for weight loss indications exceed 50% in Q1/Q2 2026, or if new data suggests a higher average calorie reduction per user than currently estimated by MDLZ. | Pharmaceutical company earnings reports, FDA/EMA drug approval announcements, healthcare analytics firm reports (e.g., IQVIA, Symphony Health). | Google Trends: Search interest for 'Ozempic weight loss,' 'Wegovy,' 'Zepbound,' 'oral GLP-1'; News sentiment analysis for GLP-1 drug efficacy and side effects. | IQVIA/Symphony Health: GLP-1 prescription volumes and new patient starts; Consumer transaction data providers (e.g., Earnest Research, Facteus): Spending patterns on 'unhealthy' food categories by GLP-1 users vs. non-users. |
| Worsening price elasticity or greater-than-expected volume declines in European chocolate markets, particularly Northern Europe, due to pricing adjustments and customer negotiations. | Higher elasticity than anticipated could force deeper price cuts or lead to significant volume losses, undermining the planned 'stable' category performance. This directly impacts European revenue and margins, signaling potential underperformance in a key market. | Mondelez's reported organic volume growth for European chocolate in Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings, and management commentary on price elasticity trends in Northern European markets (Germany, Nordics, UK). | Bearish if European chocolate volumes decline by more than 3% year-over-year in Q1 2026, or if management indicates further significant price adjustments are needed due to persistent high elasticity. | Mondelez Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 earnings reports and conference calls. | Eurostat: Retail trade volume index for food, beverages, and tobacco; National statistical offices for consumer price indices in key European markets. | Circana (IRI/NielsenIQ) Europe: Chocolate category volume sales % change in Germany, UK, Nordics; GfK: Consumer panel data on chocolate purchasing frequency and quantity. |
| Failure of increased brand investments to translate into improved overall volume trajectory, particularly in developed markets, by mid-2026. | Mondelez is significantly increasing A&C investments to drive volume growth. If these investments do not yield desired volume improvement, it suggests ineffective marketing or deeper demand issues, leading to wasted spend and margin pressure. | Mondelez's reported consolidated organic volume growth and regional volume trends in Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings. Specifically, look for a lack of sequential improvement in volume trends as the year progresses. | Bearish if consolidated organic volume growth remains below 1% year-over-year in Q1 2026 and shows no acceleration in Q2 2026, despite increased A&C spending. | Mondelez Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 earnings reports and conference calls. | Company press releases on new marketing campaigns or product launches; Industry reports on advertising spend effectiveness in the CPG sector. | Ad intelligence platforms (e.g., Sensor Tower, Pathmatics): Mondelez ad spend % change and creative effectiveness; Consumer panel data (e.g., GfK, Kantar): Brand penetration and purchase frequency changes. |
| Aggressive competitive price reductions in chocolate markets, particularly in Europe, following the recent cocoa price decline. | Mondelez covered 2026 cocoa at higher prices. Competitors with lower-cost coverage could undercut prices, forcing MDLZ to choose between losing market share or sacrificing margins, negatively impacting profitability and revenue growth. | Competitor earnings calls, press releases, and retail pricing data for major chocolate brands (e.g., Nestlé, Hershey, Ferrero) in key European markets (Germany, UK, Nordics). | Bearish if major competitors announce or implement significant (e.g., >5%) price cuts on chocolate products in key European markets, or if MDLZ reports significant market share loss in these regions. | Company earnings transcripts, industry news outlets (e.g., Confectionery News, FoodNavigator), retail price tracking services. | Google Shopping/local grocery store website price comparisons, social media sentiment analysis for competitor pricing. | NielsenIQ/IRI: Market share % change, average selling price (ASP) % change for chocolate category; Numerator: Basket penetration and spend per buyer for chocolate. |
Key Reported Metrics
| Metric | Why It Matters | Last Period |
|---|---|---|
| North America Biscuit Volume Growth | The North American biscuit category faces subdued volumes due to low consumer confidence and affordability concerns. Any improvement or stabilization in this metric would signal effective strategies to drive consumption in a critical market. | -4% |
| Emerging Markets Organic Net Revenue Growth | Emerging markets are a key growth engine for Mondelez, expected to offset softness in developed markets. Strong performance here is crucial for overall revenue and volume expansion, indicating the success of their localized strategies. | 8.0% |
| Organic Net Revenue Growth | This metric reflects the company's underlying sales performance, excluding currency fluctuations and acquisitions. Investors will closely watch if Mondelez can maintain positive growth amidst challenging market conditions and achieve its 2026 guidance. | 5.1% |
Key QuestionsWill competitive pricing actions in European chocolate, driven by the recent cocoa price decline, lead to greater-than-expected market share losses or margin pr
Will competitive pricing actions in European chocolate, driven by the recent cocoa price decline, lead to greater-than-expected market share losses or margin pressure for Mondelez in Q1 2026?
- Question 2
Will Mondelez's North American biscuit volumes continue to decline in Q1 2026, indicating a failure of its current strategy to address weak consumer confidence and value-seeking behavior, especially compared to competitors' pricing actions?
- Question 3
Will the accelerating adoption of GLP-1 drugs, particularly oral formulations, show a more immediate and material negative impact on Mondelez's snacking volumes in Q1 2026 than the company's current 'negligible' long-term estimates?
Earnings Transcript Summary
· 2025Q4 Earnings Call
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. **Adjusting Chocolate Strategy and Increasing Brand Investments**: Management is focused on adapting their chocolate strategy in response to the precipitous fall in cocoa prices, which occurred unexpectedly. They plan to increase investments behind brands, adjust price pack architecture (PPA), and push innovation (e.g., Biscoff collaboration) to regain consumption frequency and quantity, especially in Europe where elasticity was higher than expected. 2. **Driving Volume Trajectory Improvement, especially in Emerging Markets**: The company aims for significant volume trajectory improvement throughout 2026, with a particular focus on emerging markets like AMEA and Latin America, which are expected to be key sources of growth. This involves increased investments and leveraging PPA to address affordability and drive consumption. 3. **Optimizing North American Performance and Supply Chain Efficiency**: Management is focused on adapting to the soft consumer confidence and declining biscuit category in North America. Their strategy includes investing more to drive awareness, using PPA for affordability, expanding into value, club, and online channels, pushing premium offerings, and activating a multi-year supply chain program to modernize operations, improve efficiency, and reduce costs. | The overall takeaway of the call is one of **cautious optimism and strategic adaptation**. Management acknowledged a challenging operating environment, particularly due to the unexpected and precipitous fall in cocoa prices, which creates short-term pressures and competitive uncertainty for 2026. However, they expressed confidence in their long-term strategy, emphasizing significant planned investments in brands, PPA adjustments, and supply chain modernization to drive volume growth and market share. The tone was **transparent** about the headwinds, especially in developed markets and the North American biscuit category, but also **resolute** in their plans to navigate these challenges and position the company for stronger profitability and volume growth in 2027 and beyond, particularly in chocolate and emerging markets. | Mondelez International (Consolidated Organic Net Revenue): +3.4% in Q3 2025. Latin America (Organic Net Revenue): +4.7% in Q3 2025. Asia, Middle East & Africa (AMEA) (Organic Net Revenue): +5.3% in Q3 2025. Europe (Organic Net Revenue): +5.1% in Q3 2025. North America (Organic Net Revenue): -0.3% in Q3 2025. Emerging Markets (Organic Net Revenue): +7.1% in Q3 2025. Developed Markets (Organic Net Revenue): +1.2% in Q3 2025. | 1. **Cocoa Price Volatility and Chocolate Strategy**: Analysts questioned how the sudden fall in cocoa prices would impact Mondelez's chocolate strategy and 2026 outlook, given their 2026 coverage at higher prices. Management responded by stating they are building flexibility into their guidance, increasing brand investments, adjusting PPA, and focusing on 2027 for significant margin improvement as cocoa prices normalize. They also noted potential short-term competitive reactions. 2. **North American Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategy**: Analysts pressed on the difficult operating environment in North America, weak volume trends, and the company's pricing strategy in light of a competitor's price cuts. Management explained that consumer confidence is low, impacting snacking categories. They are adapting by investing more in awareness, using PPA for affordability, expanding channels, and pushing premium brands, but do not plan to decrease prices to the magnitude of competitors, having found aggressive promotions in 2025 did not yield returns. 3. **Volume Trajectory Improvement and Investment Levels for 2026/2027**: Analysts sought clarity on where significant volume trajectory improvement would come from in 2026 and the multi-year investment plans. Management indicated volume growth is expected from AMEA and Latin America, with easing declines in Europe and North America. They confirmed a significant step-up in working media investments in 2026 compared to 2025, with further increases planned for 2027 to drive volume growth and leverage improved commodity costs, particularly in cocoa, for strong EPS growth while continuing brand investment. | Emerging Markets: High single-digit growth. Developed Markets: Decline in the low to mid-single-digit range. North America (Biscuits volume): Down 4% in the last three months of 2025. Europe (Chocolate): Mixed performance with higher than expected elasticity in Northern Europe; other categories (biscuits, cakes, pastries, meals) had a pretty good year. AMEA: Expected to be a big source of volume growth. Latin America: Performance masked by Argentina, but Brazil and Mexico are doing quite well. |
Transcript Tidbits
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mondelez is expanding in channels like value, club, and online where it is currently under-indexed, aiming to push harder and increase market share. The company sees plenty of opportunities to grow its chocolate business in Europe, even after significant price increases in 2025, by leveraging price points, channels, and segments. They also plan to invest in advertising and consumer (A&C) spending to expand in both developed and developing parts of Europe. | The recent and sudden decline in cocoa prices could lead to unexpected competitive reactions in the market, especially since major players have already covered 2026 at higher prices. The company's guidance range for 2026 incorporates flexibility depending on how competitors react to these new cocoa prices. In North America, Mondelez does not believe it needs to decrease prices to the magnitude observed from another company in the snacking category. Potential competitive reactions are also a key milestone the company will be watching for in European chocolate. | The global chocolate market demonstrated resilience in 2025 despite volatility and significant price increases. In North America, consumer confidence is near historic lows, with consumers worried about affordability and price increases, leading to a shift in spending towards basics like milk, meat, and bread, which has negatively affected snacking categories. The biscuit category in the US remains subdued, with volumes down 4% in the last three months of 2025 and 3% for the full year, and is expected to remain soft in the first half of 2026. | Mondelez anticipates its chocolate business margins will increase considerably in 2027, benefiting from cocoa prices returning to historic levels. The company aims for improved volume trajectory, particularly as 2026 progresses, through substantial brand investments. Emerging markets are expected to continue growing, potentially exceeding current guidance, with less contribution from pricing and more from volume mix in 2026. For 2027, Mondelez plans another step up in brand investments to drive volume growth, which is seen as the primary basis for company growth. The goal for European chocolate is to return to pre-2025 profit levels, or even better, by 2027, with 2026 serving as a new base and 2027 being a potential 'step change'. | Unhealthy | Mondelez is investing in and supporting the development of lab-grown cocoa, which is not GMO, as a direction for the future. This is driven by the potential for significant benefits in addressing climate and social issues associated with the traditional cocoa supply chain, with anticipated interest from European and US governments for approval. | The overall chocolate market in the world, it has shown a lot of resilience. Cocoa now has returned to a level that is much more in line with the historic price that we've seen. And that bodes very well for 2027. We see our chocolate business in 2027 increase its margin in a considerable way. The emerging markets will continue growing and hopefully they will do even better than what is embedded quite frankly, in the guidance. We are aiming for a strong EPS growth in 2027. | In the more northern markets in Europe, Germany, The Nordics, The UK, we saw higher than expected elasticity so we have to take adjustments in 2026. Suddenly the cocoa price has declined more than anybody would have expected. And this will have some short-term pressures. The biscuits category is still subdued, and, you know, the plan is that it will continue like that for the first half at least. The consumer confidence is near historic low. They're worried about overall affordability. They are fed up with the price increases. |
Notes
| Date | Comment | Comment Type | Comment Sentiment | Link | IS CHANGE | Price Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Mondelez's earnings call highlighted prudent 2026 guidance due to short-term cocoa price volatility and North American biscuit softness. The company plans increased brand investment and strategic pricing adjustments in Europe. Despite these near-term pressures, the market reacted positively, with MDLZ outperforming SPY post-earnings, likely due to the long-term positive outlook for chocolate margins in 2027 from lower cocoa costs and a deemed negligible GLP-1 impact. | Earnings Transcript | Neutral | False | +0.92% (vs SPY: +0.76%) |
Upcoming Events
| Catalyst ID | Estimated Timing | Estimated Date Start | Estimated Date End | Catalyst | Why It Matters | Ticker Or Theme Specific | Transcript Date | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ_8177191f | in 2026 | 2026-04-24 | 2026-12-31 | Unforeseen competitive reactions to the recent and sudden decline in cocoa prices, potentially leading to unexpected pricing actions in the chocolate market. | This could introduce short-term pressures on Mondelez's chocolate business, impacting pricing power, market share, and profitability in 2026, as MDLZ is covered at higher prices. | Ticker | 2026-02-03 | earnings_transcript |
| MDLZ_155a6cfb | as we move through the year | 2026-04-24 | 2026-12-31 | Mondelez's ability to achieve a significant improvement in volume trajectory across its key regions (AMEA, Latin America, Europe) throughout 2026. | Improved volume growth is crucial for revenue expansion and signals stronger consumer demand, which could positively impact financial results and investor confidence. Failure to deliver could be bearish. | Ticker | 2026-02-03 | earnings_transcript |
| MDLZ_4f39c1cd | in 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 2027-12-31 | Realization of a significant increase in chocolate margins in 2027, primarily driven by lower cocoa costs (assuming current market prices stabilize) and strategic actions. | This margin expansion is expected to be a key driver of future profitability and EPS growth for Mondelez, with the allocation between reinvestment and bottom-line flow impacting overall financial performance and valuation. | Ticker | 2026-02-03 | earnings_transcript |