KARN.SW
T3Kardex Holding AG
OverviewKardex Holding AG provides intralogistics solutions, offering automated storage and material handling systems globally. Its Kardex Remstar segment delivers dyna
Kardex Holding AG provides intralogistics solutions, offering automated storage and material handling systems globally. Its Kardex Remstar segment delivers dynamic storage systems, while Kardex Mlog and newly acquired Rocket Solutions provide integrated material handling, AutoStore, and multi-shuttle systems. Standardized Systems contributed 33% of 2025 net revenues. Kardex serves diverse customers seeking efficient warehouse automation, from entry-level to advanced solutions.
- What They Do (Plain English & Analogies)
- Kardex is like a master builder for smart warehouses and factories. They create and install automated systems that help companies store and retrieve items much more efficiently. Imagine a high-tech vending machine for industrial parts that brings the right item directly to a worker, or a massive warehouse where robots handle all the heavy lifting and sorting. Kardex offers a range of these solutions, from simpler automated storage units to complex, fully integrated material handling systems. Their goal is to help businesses save space, time, and labor by automating their internal logistics, making their operations smoother and more productive.
- Very Brief History
- Kardex Holding AG traces its origins back to 1898 with the founding of the Rand Ledger Company, initially focusing on business data and file storage. The company rebranded as Kardex AG in 1977, shifting its focus to automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS) and material handling solutions. It was listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange in 1989. Key acquisitions include MLOG Logistics GmbH in 2010, which brought expertise in integrated material handling systems. In 2020, Kardex acquired a stake in Rocket Solution GmbH, a startup specializing in multi-shuttle solutions, and then acquired a majority share in December 2025, further expanding its portfolio.
- "Street Stereotype"
- Kardex is generally perceived by investors and analysts as a high-ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) niche leader in the warehouse automation market. It is known for its sticky service revenues and growth driven by its AutoStore offerings. The market is currently focused on the company's ability to execute on its growth guidance, achieve margin recovery in its Standardized Systems segment, and normalize its free cash flow.
- Subsidiaries On Linked In*
- Kardex Remstar, Kardex Mlog, Kardex AS Solutions, Rocket Solutions.
- Customer Sectors & Example Clients
- Kardex serves a wide range of customer sectors, including e-commerce, defense, manufacturing, and logistics. Their solutions are used in applications such as automated storage and retrieval systems, buffering and sequencing, order fulfillment, controlled environments, and document storage. Specific clients include Sonepar, a B-to-B distributor of electrical, industrial, and safety products.
- New Customers / Segments They'Re Targeting
- Kardex is targeting customers who seek a comprehensive automation partner, offering solutions from entry-level to advanced systems, and handling both light goods and pallet handling from a single source ('One Kardex'). With the acquisition of Rocket Solutions, they are specifically enhancing their coverage for handling light goods, particularly for customers requiring a combination of high performance and mid-sized capacity, or for buildings taller than 8 meters.
- Supply Chain And Sourcing Geographies
- Kardex operates production facilities for Kardex Remstar in Neuburg an der Kammel and Bellheim, Germany, and in West Columbia, South Carolina, USA. Kardex Mlog's production and administration are located in Neuenstadt am Kocher, Germany. Rocket Solution GmbH is based in Unterhaching near Munich, Germany. The company increased security stock levels in 2025 due to geopolitical tensions, indicating a global supply chain that can be affected by such events. Kardex is also considering a potential fully-fledged factory in Asia by 2027, which would expand its manufacturing footprint.
- Sales Geographies And Expansion Plans
- Kardex currently sells its products globally across three main regions: EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa), Americas, and APAC (Asia-Pacific). For Automated Products (Kardex Remstar), EMEA is the main contributor to bookings, followed by the Americas, with APAC contributing negatively in 2025. For Standardized Systems (Mlog, AS Solutions, Rocket), EMEA accounts for the highest volume of bookings, while the Americas showed the highest relative contribution to growth, and APAC also contributed positively. The company expects U.S. demand for Remstar to pick up significantly in 2026. Kardex plans to continue investing in sales and marketing to strengthen its position in existing markets and capitalize on global trends like reshoring, labor shortages, and automation, rather than explicitly stating plans to expand into entirely new geographies.
- How Key Themes May Help/Hurt
- Kardex, as an Industrial Automation OEM, is positioned to benefit significantly from the 'Humanoid '25: Industrial Automation OEMs' theme. The accelerating adoption of robotics, including humanoids, driven by AI advancements and cost deflation, directly increases the demand for the warehouse automation solutions that Kardex provides. Persistent labor shortages and the growth of e-commerce act as strong tailwinds, pushing businesses towards greater automation. The projected moderate rebound in the industrial automation market for 2026 is also a positive factor. However, Kardex could be hurt by the inherent cyclicality of capital expenditure in industrial automation and the automotive sector, where macroeconomic downturns or trade conflicts could delay investments. Intense competitive pressure, particularly from cost-disrupting manufacturers, could also lead to margin compression.
3 Main Long-Term Bull Details
- Kardex's comprehensive 'One Kardex' solution portfolio, spanning entry-level automated products to advanced standardized systems, including light goods and pallet handling, is highly valued by customers seeking integrated solutions from a single supplier.
- The company demonstrates a strong ability to gain market shares even in challenging market environments, supported by strategic investments in sales, marketing, innovation, and digitalization.
- Kardex benefits from stable, high-margin recurring Life-Cycle Services (LCS) revenues, and is well-positioned to capitalize on secular trends such as reshoring, persistent labor shortages, and the increasing global demand for automation.
3 Main Long-Term Bear Details
- There is potential for continued margin pressure, particularly within the Standardized Systems segment, due to the increasing share of systems business, ongoing investments in growth initiatives, and competitive market dynamics.
- Kardex is exposed to macroeconomic downturns, geopolitical tensions, and trade uncertainties, which can lead to project delays and impact overall demand, as evidenced by U.S. demand weakness in 2025.
- The company's free cash flow can experience significant volatility due to working capital swings, inventory buildup, and the timing of project execution and associated cash inflows, as observed in its 2025 performance.
- Competitors And Differentiation
- Kardex competes with other industrial automation and intralogistics solution providers such as KION and Interroll. Its key differentiation strategy, referred to as 'One Kardex,' is to offer a comprehensive solution portfolio that covers the entire automation journey for customers, from entry-level automated products to advanced standardized systems. This includes light goods solutions, pallet handling solutions, and a combination of different technologies from a single supplier. The company emphasizes that customers appreciate working with a single supplier for diverse automation needs. Additionally, its Rocket multi-shuttle solution is highlighted as the most dense in the market, offering space-optimized rack design and minimizing mechanical stress for lower maintenance costs.
- Recent Performance & What The Market'S Focused On
- In 2025, Kardex achieved all-time high bookings, net revenues, and EBIT despite a difficult market environment. Bookings increased by over 24%, net revenues by 7.5%, and EBIT surpassed EUR 100 million for the first time, reaching EUR 101.2 million. The gross profit margin slightly decreased due to sales mix and higher personnel expenses. Free cash flow, however, dropped significantly in 2025, attributed to a strong prior year, CapEx invoicing, strong order intake in the latter half of the year (where cash had not yet flowed in), and increased net working capital. The company also acquired a majority stake in Rocket Solutions in December 2025. The market is currently focused on Kardex's free cash flow recovery, margin trends in the Standardized Systems segment (Mlog/AutoStore), sustained order intake and pipeline conversion (especially for Remstar in the U.S.), and the company's execution on its stated growth guidance of 10-14% net revenue growth with an EBIT margin around 12%.
- Brands And Revenue Segments
- Kardex operates under several brands, including Kardex Remstar, Kardex Mlog, AS Solutions (for AutoStore projects), and Rocket Solutions. Its revenue is primarily divided into two segments: Automated Products (consisting solely of Kardex Remstar) and Standardized Systems (comprising Kardex Mlog, AS Solutions, and Rocket Solutions). In 2025, the share of the Standardized Systems business increased from 35% to 43% of bookings and from 30% to 33% of net revenues.
Bull / Bear DetailsKardex remains a high-ROIC niche leader in warehouse automation, now further strengthened by the Rocket Solutions acquisition and the "One Kardex" strategy. Rec
Thesis
Kardex remains a high-ROIC niche leader in warehouse automation, now further strengthened by the Rocket Solutions acquisition and the "One Kardex" strategy. Record bookings and a strong backlog underpin expected above-average revenue growth in 2026, with anticipated free cash flow normalization and U.S. Remstar recovery. Execution on Standardized Systems margins amidst continued investments will be key. (Updated: 2026-03-20)
Bull case
Kardex achieved all-time high bookings in 2025, growing over 24%, and reports "very strong order momentum" for Mlog and AS Solutions year-to-date 2026. This robust demand, coupled with a strong backlog, positions the company for net revenue growth "above the projected average" (exceeding 14%) in 2026, demonstrating resilient market share gains in a flat market.
The acquisition of Rocket Solutions significantly expands Kardex's solution portfolio with the "most dense multi-shuttle" technology, enhancing its ability to cover the entire automation journey for customers. The "One Kardex" strategy is proving highly effective, generating EUR 150 million in combined project bookings in 2025 and differentiating Kardex from competitors.
Management anticipates a "much stronger year" for U.S. Remstar in 2026, driven by expected government spending and clearer tariff scenarios, addressing previous regional weakness. Furthermore, a "positive momentum" for free cash flow is expected in 2026, signaling a recovery from the significant 2025 drop and easing investor concerns about cash generation.
Bear case
Standardized Systems EBIT margin remains at the lower end of the 5-8% target (5.0% in 2025), reflecting continued substantial investments in sales, marketing, R&D, and organizational maturity. While necessary for growth, sustained margin pressure in this key segment could temper overall profitability and impact investor sentiment.
Free cash flow dropped significantly to EUR 20.5 million in 2025, primarily due to increased net working capital from strong Q3/Q4 order intake and higher CapEx. Despite management's expectation of "positive momentum" in 2026, the sharp decline raises concerns about cash conversion efficiency and the impact of ongoing elevated CapEx (EUR 40-50M in 2026) on future FCF.
The company acknowledges persistent "geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties" and "macroeconomic challenges" for 2026. While Kardex has gained market share, these external headwinds could still lead to customer project delays or reduced capital expenditure, potentially impacting order intake and revenue conversion, particularly if the global economic environment deteriorates.
Bull / Bear Case
- Bear Case
- Despite strong bookings, Kardex's free cash flow dropped significantly to EUR 20.5 million in 2025, with the dividend not well covered by FCF, raising concerns about cash conversion efficiency and the impact of ongoing elevated CapEx (EUR 40-50M in 2026 and potentially 2027). The net profit margin slipped from 10.2% to 4.9%, and the Standardized Systems EBIT margin remains at the lower end of its 5-8% target (5.0% in 2025) due to substantial investments. The stock trades at a premium P/E of 52.8x, significantly above peers (22.7x) and the industry average (20.5x), suggesting it may be overvalued given the margin pressures. Persistent geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic challenges could still lead to customer project delays or reduced capital expenditure, impacting future order intake and revenue conversion.
- Bull Case
- Kardex achieved all-time high bookings, net revenues, and EBIT in 2025, demonstrating strong market share gains in a flat market environment. The company's "One Kardex" strategy, offering a comprehensive portfolio from entry-level to advanced automation, is a significant competitive advantage, generating EUR 150 million in combined project bookings in 2025. The acquisition of Rocket Solutions further enhances its multi-shuttle technology, expanding its addressable market. Management anticipates net revenue growth above 14% in 2026, driven by a strong backlog and "very strong order momentum" in Mlog and AS Solutions. A "much stronger year" for U.S. Remstar is expected in 2026 due to anticipated government spending and clearer tariff scenarios, alongside an expected "positive momentum" for free cash flow, which should alleviate prior investor concerns.
- More Compelling & Why
- Bear. Kardex's current trailing P/E ratio of 52.8x is significantly higher than its peers (22.7x) and the broader European Machinery industry (20.5x), indicating a stretched valuation that does not adequately account for the substantial drop in net profit margin from 10.2% to 4.9% and the significant decline in free cash flow in 2025. While growth prospects are positive, the valuation premium demands flawless execution and rapid margin recovery, which remains uncertain given continued high CapEx and geopolitical headwinds. My view would flip to Bull if the Standardized Systems EBIT margin consistently recovers above 7% and free cash flow generation significantly outpaces CapEx, bringing the P/FCF ratio more in line with industry averages.
Key Factors
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | What To Watch | What It Signals | Where/How To Track | Free Alt Data | Paid Alt Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standardized Systems Segment EBIT Margin Trend | The Standardized Systems segment is growing rapidly but its EBIT margin was at the lower end of the target range in 2025 due to investments. Margin recovery is essential to demonstrate profitable growth and efficient scaling of the business. | Standardized Systems segment EBIT margin in Q1 2026; Commentary on investment impact (sales & marketing, R&D) vs. project profitability and scale benefits. Specifically, watch for the margin to move above 5.0% towards the 5-8% target range. | Bullish if Q1 2026 Standardized Systems EBIT margin shows clear improvement, indicating successful execution of projects and leverage from investments. Bearish if margins remain flat or decline further. | Company's quarterly earnings reports and conference calls (next expected Q1 2026 results in late April/early May 2026). | ||
| Standardized Systems (Mlog, AS Solutions, Rocket) Order Intake & Backlog Conversion | This segment is Kardex's primary growth engine, driven by AutoStore and Mlog. Sustained strong order intake and efficient conversion to revenue are crucial for achieving overall growth targets and validating the accelerated growth strategy. | Year-to-date (Q1 2026) order intake for Mlog and AS Solutions; Book-to-bill ratio for Standardized Systems; Quarterly net revenue growth for Standardized Systems. Specifically, watch if the book-to-bill remains >1.0 and if segment revenue growth accelerates above 19% (2025 actual). | Bullish if year-to-date order momentum remains 'very strong' and Standardized Systems net revenue growth accelerates above 19% y/y. Bearish if order momentum slows significantly or revenue conversion lags despite strong backlog. | Company's quarterly earnings reports and conference calls (next expected Q1 2026 results in late April/early May 2026). | Industry news on warehouse automation projects, competitor order announcements. | Thinknum: Kardex job postings (sales/engineering) for Mlog/AS Solutions; Supply Chain Data Providers: Project announcements for warehouse automation. |
| U.S. Automated Products (Remstar) Demand Recovery | The U.S. market was a weak spot for Remstar in 2025. A strong recovery, driven by expected government spending and tariff clarity, would significantly boost the Automated Products segment and contribute to overall group performance. | U.S. specific order intake commentary for Remstar in Q1 2026; Automated Products segment revenue growth (specifically looking for acceleration from 2.8% y/y in 2025). | Bullish if management reports a 'much stronger' U.S. Remstar performance in Q1 2026, with segment revenue growth accelerating towards 8-10% y/y. Bearish if U.S. demand remains subdued or shows no significant pickup. | Company's quarterly earnings reports and conference calls (next expected Q1 2026 results in late April/early May 2026). | USASpending.gov: Government contract awards related to warehouse automation; Industry trade publications for U.S. logistics and manufacturing. | Sensor Tower / Apptopia: Downloads/usage of competitor logistics apps (if applicable); Job postings data for U.S. warehouse/logistics roles. |
| Group Net Revenue Growth Rate | Management explicitly guided for 2026 net revenue growth to be 'above the projected average' (mid-term 10-14%). Meeting or exceeding this elevated expectation would strongly confirm the success of their accelerated growth strategy and market share gains. | Q1 2026 Group Net Revenue Growth (y/y). Specifically, watch if the growth rate is clearly above 14%. | Bullish if Q1 2026 net revenue growth significantly exceeds 14% y/y, validating management's optimistic outlook. Bearish if growth falls within or below the 10-14% range, suggesting challenges in converting backlog or market conditions are tougher than expected. | Company's quarterly earnings reports and conference calls (next expected Q1 2026 results in late April/early May 2026). | Bloomberg Terminal / Refinitiv Eikon: Consensus revenue estimates; Industry reports on intralogistics market growth. | |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) Generation & Working Capital Management | FCF dropped significantly in 2025, raising investor concerns. A strong rebound in FCF, driven by improved working capital and cash inflows from projects, is crucial for restoring investor confidence and supporting valuation. | Q1 2026 Free Cash Flow; Commentary on net working capital trends (accounts receivable, inventories, accounts payable); Cash conversion cycle. Specifically, watch for FCF to show a positive trend and management reiterating 'positive momentum'. | Bullish if Q1 2026 FCF is positive and significantly improved year-over-year, indicating effective working capital management. Bearish if FCF remains weak or working capital continues to be a drag. | Company's quarterly earnings reports and conference calls (next expected Q1 2026 results in late April/early May 2026). |
Key Reported Metrics
| Metric | Why It Matters | Last Period |
|---|---|---|
| Standardized Systems Revenue Growth | This segment is the primary growth engine, especially driven by AutoStore. Strong growth here is crucial for the overall investment thesis and to offset any regional weaknesses. | 18.6% |
| Automated Products Revenue Growth | This is Kardex's core installed-base business. A recovery here signals successful reorganization efforts and sustains recurring Life-Cycle Services revenues. | 2.8% |
| Free Cash Flow | Analysts zeroed in on the sharp FCF drop; recovery would ease bear concerns and support valuation by demonstrating financial health and operational efficiency. | -77.4% |
Key QuestionsWill Kardex's 2026 net revenue growth significantly exceed the guided "above 14%", driven by strong order momentum in Standardized Systems and a robust U.S. Rem
Will Kardex's 2026 net revenue growth significantly exceed the guided "above 14%", driven by strong order momentum in Standardized Systems and a robust U.S. Remstar recovery?
- Question 2
Can Standardized Systems' EBIT margin recover meaningfully from 5.0% towards the mid-to-upper end of its 5-8% target range in 2026, as strong backlog converts to revenue and investments yield returns?
- Question 3
Will free cash flow rebound significantly in 2026, demonstrating strong positive momentum and effectively offsetting increased capital expenditures, to restore investor confidence?
Rerating Thresholds
| Metric | What'S Needed For Rerating | Why It Matters | Earnings Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | For Kardex Holding AG (KARN.SW) to rerate higher, the Free Cash Flow (FCF) metric needs to demonstrate a significant recovery. Specifically, the company should report a full-year 2025 FCF substantially above the H1 2025 value of €8.4 million, ideally exceeding the implied analyst consensus of approximately €36 million. Furthermore, for 2026, Kardex needs to provide FCF guidance that indicates a clear and sustained upward trend, potentially targeting above the implied analyst consensus of approximately €47 million. This recovery would signal the normalization of working capital and the positive impact of investments made in H1 2025. | A strong FCF rebound is crucial as the previous collapse spooked investors and raised execution questions. Achieving these FCF targets would validate the investment thesis of Kardex as a high-ROIC leader, ease bear concerns about cash generation, and support a higher valuation by demonstrating financial health and operational efficiency. | 2026-03-12 |
| Automated Products Revenue Growth(Remstar) | Automated Products Revenue Growth (Remstar) needs to accelerate from the H1 2025 value of +6.5% y/y to a range of 8-10%+ y/y. This would demonstrate a significant recovery and align more closely with the company's overall growth guidance of 10-14% and analyst consensus for total revenue growth of 9.5% per annum. | Achieving 8-10%+ y/y growth in Automated Products (Remstar) is crucial because this segment represents Kardex's core installed-base business. A sustained acceleration here signals successful reorganization efforts and underpins the stability and growth of recurring Life-Cycle Services (LCS) revenues. This performance would validate Kardex's market position, support its valuation, and alleviate investor concerns regarding demand fluctuations, particularly in the U.S. | 2026-03-12 |
| Standardized Systems Revenue Growth (Mlog + AutoStore) | For Kardex Holding AG (KARN.SW) to rerate higher, the Standardized Systems Revenue Growth (Mlog + AutoStore) metric needs to remain robust, ideally in the high teens to low twenties (e.g., 18-25% year-over-year). Crucially, this growth must be accompanied by a significant recovery in the segment's EBIT margin, moving into or exceeding the company's stated target range of 5-8%. | Achieving this threshold is vital as it signals improved execution and profitability in Kardex's primary growth engine, Standardized Systems. It would validate the investment thesis of strong AutoStore-driven growth coupled with margin recovery, directly addressing past investor concerns about margin pressure and free cash flow, thereby supporting a positive rerating and higher valuation. | 2026-03-12 |
Earnings Transcript Summary
· 2025Q4 Earnings Call
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Achieving the accelerated growth strategy target of EUR 1.5 billion net revenue between 2029 and 2031, stating they are 'well on track' after one year. 2. Substantial investments in strategic growth initiatives, specifically sales and marketing, innovation, digitalization, and IT infrastructure, which they believe are already paying off. 3. Expanding their solution portfolio and leveraging the 'One Kardex' approach, highlighted by the acquisition of Rocket Solutions to offer a comprehensive range of automation solutions from entry-level to advanced, thereby gaining market share and winning customer trust. | The overall takeaway of the call is one of strong performance and optimistic outlook despite a challenging market environment. Kardex reported all-time high bookings, net revenues, and EBIT for 2025, driven by market share gains and strategic investments. Management expressed confidence in their accelerated growth strategy, the 'One Kardex' approach, and the positive demand for their intralogistics solutions. The tone was confident and positive, emphasizing continued profitable growth and the successful execution of their investment initiatives. | Automated Products (Kardex Remstar): +6.5% y/y (H1 2025); Standardized Systems: +27.9% y/y (H1 2025) | 1. **2026 Net Revenue Growth Outlook**: Analysts inquired if net revenue growth in 2026 would exceed 14%. Management confirmed, 'Yes.' 2. **2026 EBIT Margin Guidance**: Analysts asked if the EBIT margin for 2026 would be around 'slightly below 12%.' Management confirmed this expectation. 3. **Current Trading and Order Momentum (Remstar, Mlog, AS Solutions)**: Analysts sought insights into year-to-date order momentum across segments. Management reported 'very strong order momentum' for Mlog and AS Solutions, noting that Remstar's demand, which was weaker in H2 2025 and early 2026, is 'picking up again.' | Automated Products (Kardex Remstar): +2.8% y/y; Standardized Systems (Kardex Mlog, Kardex AS Solutions, Rocket Solution): +18.6% y/y |
Transcript Tidbits
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kardex acquired a majority stake in Rocket Solutions, adding multi-shuttle technology to its portfolio. This acquisition provides better coverage for handling light goods, especially for high-performance, mid-sized capacity requirements or buildings taller than 8 meters. The Rocket multi-shuttle is described as the 'most dense multi-shuttle in the market' due to its up to 6-deep bin storage and space-optimized rack design, which helps Kardex cover the entire automation journey for customers and further expand its addressable market. | Kardex heavily gained market shares in a flat market environment in both automated products and standardized systems. The company increased investments in hardware and, even more so, in software solutions to differentiate from competitors. A key competitive advantage highlighted is the 'One Kardex' solution portfolio, enabling them to offer a combination of simple and advanced solutions, as well as light good and pallet handling solutions, all from a single supplier. This broad portfolio, covering entry-level to advanced automation, is seen as a unique position compared to other industry players like KION and Interroll. | The broader market environment in 2025 was characterized by 'difficult market environment with geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties'. Despite these challenges, global trends such as reshoring, labor shortage, and automation are expected to drive the general growth of warehouse automation. The demand for Kardex intralogistics solutions is anticipated to remain strong. There was a slight slowdown in the second half of 2025 for automated products due to geopolitical uncertainties and customer-related project delays. The U.S. market for Remstar was weaker in 2025 due to delays in government spending and tariff uncertainties, but a clearer tariff scenario for the next 150 days is expected to lead to a stronger U.S. year in 2026. Momentum is also noted in e-commerce and defense segments. | Kardex is targeting to become a 'profitable EUR 1.5 billion net revenue company between 2029 and 2031' and is currently 'well on track'. For 2026, the company expects net revenue growth to be above the projected average, driven by a strong backlog and a good project pipeline across all four business units. The EBIT margin for 2026 is anticipated to be 'around slightly below 12%'. Capital expenditures are projected to increase further in 2026 (EUR 40 million to EUR 50 million) and potentially in 2027, as investments in transformation programs (e.g., SAP S/4 HANA, buildings, equipment, and a potential Asian factory) continue. Net working capital is expected to have a 'positive momentum' in 2026 due to anticipated higher cash inflows from won projects. The U.S. market for Remstar is expected to have a 'much stronger year in 2026'. | Industrial | Customer-centric, single-source solutions: There is an emerging trend where customers increasingly prefer to work with suppliers that can offer a comprehensive range of different automation technologies and solutions 'out of one hand', rather than engaging with multiple vendors. Kardex's 'One Kardex' strategy, combining offerings from its different business units, directly addresses this customer preference and is identified as a significant driver of growth. | We are happy with the full year 2025 results. Kardex reached all-time high bookings, net revenues and EBIT numbers. We are well on track [for EUR 1.5 billion net revenue]. We heavily gained market shares in a flat market environment. Our outlook for 2026 stays positive. We expect the demand for Kardex intralogistics solutions to remain strong. We expect that the net revenue growth for Kardex for 2026 will be above the projected average. We believe that we will see a much stronger year in 2026 [for U.S. Remstar]. We currently see a very strong order momentum or booking momentum for Mlog and for AS Solutions. We have rather a positive momentum [for free cash flow] in the year 2026. | In a difficult market environment with geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties. We were not able to transform the bookings quick enough into net revenues. Free cash flow dropped significantly compared to last year to EUR 20.5 million. The result for the period also dropped to EUR 41.8 million. Equity went down by EUR 15 million, affected by this write-off of EUR 39 million. The second half of the year of Remstar was not so strong. EBIT margin went down to 5.0% [for Systems business]. The geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges will remain. | Kardex made substantial investments in strategic growth initiatives with a clear focus on sales and marketing, innovation, and digitalization. Specifically, they invested into their sales force at Remstar, Mlog, and AS Solutions. Operating expenses increased by EUR 10 million, with main activities continuing in sales organization, marketing activities, IT, and R&D, particularly for software. The company plans to continue investing in sales and marketing, R&D, and IT infrastructure 'to get more feet on the ground' to strengthen its market position and drive profitable growth. |
Earnings ResultsFull-year 2025 FCF of €20.5 million was substantially above H1 2025's €8.4 million, but it did not exceed the ideal analyst consensus of €36 million. For 2026,
| Metric | Prior Quarter | Rerating Trigger | Actual Reported | Hit Target? | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | '-85% y/y (H1 2025: €56m → €8.4m) | For Kardex Holding AG (KARN.SW) to rerate higher, the Free Cash Flow (FCF) metric needs to demonstrate a significant recovery. Specifically, the company should report a full-year 2025 FCF substantially above the H1 2025 value of €8.4 million, ideally exceeding the implied analyst consensus of approximately €36 million. Furthermore, for 2026, Kardex needs to provide FCF guidance that indicates a clear and sustained upward trend, potentially targeting above the implied analyst consensus of approximately €47 million. This recovery would signal the normalization of working capital and the positive impact of investments made in H1 2025. | €20.5 million | Partially | Full-year 2025 FCF of €20.5 million was substantially above H1 2025's €8.4 million, but it did not exceed the ideal analyst consensus of €36 million. For 2026, management expects 'rather a positive momentum' for free cash flow, but did not provide a specific numerical target to indicate a clear and sustained upward trend above the €47 million analyst consensus. |
| Automated Products Revenue Growth(Remstar) | '+6.5% y/y (H1 2025) | Automated Products Revenue Growth (Remstar) needs to accelerate from the H1 2025 value of +6.5% y/y to a range of 8-10%+ y/y. This would demonstrate a significant recovery and align more closely with the company's overall growth guidance of 10-14% and analyst consensus for total revenue growth of 9.5% per annum. | 3% y/y growth | No | Automated Products (Kardex Remstar) net revenues increased by only 3% year-over-year in 2025, which is below the rerating target range of 8-10%+ y/y. Management noted a slight slowdown in the second half of 2025 due to geopolitical uncertainties and customer-related project delays, particularly in the U.S. However, they anticipate a 'much stronger year' for U.S. Remstar in 2026. |
| Standardized Systems Revenue Growth (Mlog + AutoStore) | '+27.9% y/y (H1 2025) | For Kardex Holding AG (KARN.SW) to rerate higher, the Standardized Systems Revenue Growth (Mlog + AutoStore) metric needs to remain robust, ideally in the high teens to low twenties (e.g., 18-25% year-over-year). Crucially, this growth must be accompanied by a significant recovery in the segment's EBIT margin, moving into or exceeding the company's stated target range of 5-8%. | 19% y/y growth; 5.0% EBIT margin | Yes | Standardized Systems revenue grew by a robust 19% year-over-year in 2025, falling within the rerating target of high teens to low twenties. The segment's EBIT margin was 5.0%, which is at the lower end of the company's stated target range of 5-8%, thus meeting this part of the trigger. Management reported 'very strong order momentum' for Mlog and AS Solutions year-to-date. |
Notes
| Date | Comment | Comment Type | Comment Sentiment | Link | IS CHANGE | Price Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | Kardex's H1 2025 results showed strong bookings (+18.7%) and revenue growth, but margins were pressured in Standardized Systems and U.S. demand lagged, prompting an initial sell-off. Management reaffirmed 10–14% growth, emphasized AutoStore momentum and service revenues, and the stock rebounded strongly as investors regained confidence. | Earnings Transcript | Mixed | +4.50% (vs SPY: +5.02%) | ||
| 2026-03-12 | Kardex reported record 2025 bookings, revenue, and EBIT, fueled by strong Standardized Systems growth and strategic investments. Despite a significant free cash flow drop, the company projected 2026 net revenue growth above 14% and a U.S. Remstar rebound, maintaining an optimistic outlook. The market perceived this positively, with the stock outperforming SPY by nearly 5% post-earnings, signaling confidence in Kardex's continued profitable growth and strategic execution. | Earnings Transcript | Neutral | False | +3.82% (vs SPY: +4.90%) |
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| Catalyst ID | Estimated Timing | Estimated Date Start | Estimated Date End | Catalyst | Why It Matters | Ticker Or Theme Specific | Transcript Date | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KARN.SW_8629faac | for 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Kardex expects net revenue growth for 2026 to be above its projected average (10-14%), driven by a strong backlog and project pipeline. | Achieving higher-than-average net revenue growth would signal strong execution and demand, positively impacting investor sentiment and valuation. Failure to meet this expectation could lead to negative sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript |
| KARN.SW_33a30cfe | for 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Management expects the EBIT margin for 2026 to be 'around slightly below 12%'. | This provides specific guidance on profitability. Achieving or exceeding this margin would be positive, while falling short could raise concerns about cost control or pricing power. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript |
| KARN.SW_ca23739d | also in 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Kardex expects demand for its intralogistics solutions to remain strong in 2026, capitalizing on global trends like reshoring, labor shortage, and automation. | Sustained strong demand is crucial for bookings and revenue growth, indicating continued market outperformance and successful capitalization on broader automation trends. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript |
| KARN.SW_8b89e7a5 | will continue to invest into sales and marketing, R&D and IT infrastructure | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Kardex will continue substantial investments in sales and marketing, R&D, and IT infrastructure throughout 2026 to strengthen its market position and drive profitable growth. | The effectiveness and return on these investments are crucial for future growth and market share gains. Successful execution would be positive, while inefficient spending could pressure margins. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript |
| KARN.SW_b3f20dc0 | for the year 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | CapEx is expected to increase in 2026 (higher than 2025) and be between EUR 40 million to EUR 50 million, with similar levels potentially continuing into 2027 depending on plans for an Asian factory. | Higher CapEx impacts free cash flow. The actual spend and its efficiency in driving future capacity or growth will be key for investor sentiment, especially given the previous FCF drop. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript |
| KARN.SW_3e9168de | in the year 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Management expects 'more tailwinds' and a 'positive momentum' for free cash flow in 2026, driven by higher cash inflows from projects won in late 2025. | A recovery in free cash flow is a key rerating threshold for investors. Positive momentum would ease concerns about cash generation and support valuation, while a continued drag would be negative. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript |
| KARN.SW_cbfa7e5b | in the first half of 2026 and basically also for the entire year 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Kardex anticipates a much stronger year for Remstar's order intake in the U.S. in 2026, driven by expected government spending and customers reacting to short-term tariff security. | A recovery in U.S. demand for the Automated Products segment (Remstar) is crucial for its revenue growth and overall company performance, addressing a previous area of weakness. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript |
| KARN.SW_3bde2dbd | also in 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 2027-12-31 | Investments in the company's transformation program are expected to continue into 2027, which might cause EBIT margins to 'come back slightly' (implying potential pressure or slower expansion). | This provides a longer-term view on profitability, indicating that significant margin expansion might not be immediate after 2026 due to ongoing investment, which could influence investor expectations. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript |
| KARN.SW_eeb1240e | year-to-date basis | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Kardex expects strong order momentum for Mlog and AS Solutions to continue in 2026, with growth potentially in the 'teens area' (around the medium-term guidance growth-wise). | Sustained strong order intake in these growth segments is vital for future revenue and market share gains, validating the company's strategy in standardized systems and supporting overall growth targets. | Ticker | 2026-03-12 | earnings_transcript |