FICO
T3Fair Isaac Corporation
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OverviewFair Isaac Corporation (FICO) provides advanced analytics and software, best known for its credit scoring solutions. Its Scores segment, generating about 68% of
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) provides advanced analytics and software, best known for its credit scoring solutions. Its Scores segment, generating about 68% of revenue, offers business and consumer credit scores like FICO Score 10T and UltraFICO. The Software segment, contributing around 32%, delivers the AI-driven FICO Platform for decision management. FICO primarily sells to financial institutions and lenders globally.
Search Keywords Brand Product
- FICO Score
- FICO Platform
- FICO Score 10T
- UltraFICO Score
- myFICO.com
- FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program
- Enterprise Fraud Solution
- Optimal Blue
- LoanPASS
- credit scoring
- AI decisioning platform
- mortgage lending
- fraud detection
- risk management
- financial services analytics
- credit risk models
- cash flow data
- responsible AI
- AI governance
Search Keywords Event Phrases
- FICO Q3 earnings
- FICO World 2026
- FICO Score 10T general availability
- UltraFICO general availability
- FICO Accenture partnership
Search Keywords Policy Regulatory
- GSE approval
- FHFA
- Lender Choice program
- EU AI Act
- regulatory compliance
- LLPA grids
- What They Do (Plain English & Analogies)
- FICO helps businesses, especially in finance, make smarter and faster decisions. Think of them as a "financial GPS" that provides credit scores (like the well-known FICO Score) to tell lenders how likely someone is to repay a loan, helping them decide on mortgages, car loans, or credit cards. They also act as a "smart decision-making engine" through their FICO Platform software, which uses artificial intelligence (AI) to automate and improve complex choices in real-time, such as detecting fraud or offering personalized products to customers. This helps businesses turn data into better outcomes.
- Very Brief History
- Founded in 1956 as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. by Bill Fair and Earl Isaac, the company pioneered credit decisioning with the introduction of the FICO Score. It officially became Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992 and has since expanded its focus from statistical credit scoring to advanced predictive analytics, decision management, and AI-driven solutions.
- "Street Stereotype"
- FICO is widely regarded as the "gold standard" and dominant force in U.S. consumer credit scoring, often seen as having a near-monopolistic position. However, there's a growing perception of increased competition, particularly from VantageScore in the mortgage market, fueled by regulatory changes like the Lender Choice program. Investors are closely watching how FICO navigates this competitive landscape, especially with the adoption of FICO Score 10T and the Direct Licensing Program. There's also significant focus on the growth and diversification driven by its AI-powered FICO Platform.
- Subsidiaries On Linked In*
- Fair Isaac Lithuania, UAB — Corporate Affiliate / Subprocessor for SaaS Services
- Fair Isaac Brasil do Ltd — Corporate Affiliate / Subprocessor for SaaS Services
- Fair Isaac Mexico S.A. de C.V. — Corporate Affiliate / Subprocessor for SaaS Services
- Fair Isaac (Thailand) Co., Ltd. — Corporate Affiliate / Subprocessor for SaaS Services
- Customer Sectors & Example Clients
- FICO's customers are predominantly in **financial services**, including major banks, mortgage lenders (e.g., Movement Mortgage), auto lenders, credit card providers, and personal loan companies. They also serve industries such as **insurance** (e.g., Mercury Insurance), **telecommunications**, **health care**, and **retail**. Key partners and clients mentioned include Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSEs), Plaid (for UltraFICO), Optimal Blue, LoanPASS (mortgage platforms), and Accenture (strategic partnership).
- New Customers / Segments They'Re Targeting
- FICO is targeting **subprime and near-prime consumers** through its UltraFICO Score, aiming to expand credit access in card, personal loan, and auto lending by leveraging cash flow data. They are also focused on deepening penetration within their existing 500 target enterprise accounts for the FICO Platform and expanding its reach to new enterprises beyond this initial set. Furthermore, FICO is actively seeking to broaden its customer base beyond traditional financial services into other verticals like **telecommunications** through its partner programs and and marketplace.
- Supply Chain And Sourcing Geographies
- FICO's business primarily involves intellectual property, software, analytics, and data management services, rather than physical products. Therefore, a traditional manufacturing-style supply chain with specific sourcing geographies for components is not directly applicable. The company leverages cloud providers for scalability in its operations.
- Sales Geographies And Expansion Plans
- FICO currently sells its products and services globally. In Q3 2026, the **Americas region** (North America and Latin America) accounted for 91% of total revenues, followed by the **EMEA region** (Europe, Middle East, Africa) with 6%, and the **Asia Pacific region** with 3%. Management plans to expand sales by broadening its reach into other verticals beyond financial services, particularly through its partner program and the FICO Marketplace. The FICO Score is also available in over 40 countries.
- How Key Themes May Help/Hurt
- FICO is well-positioned to **benefit significantly** from the "Alt & Market Data '26: Risk Analytics" theme due to its accelerating AI integration within the FICO Platform and its scores, leveraging proprietary data to create strong moats and capitalize on enterprises' digital transformation needs. However, it could be **hurt** by persistent macroeconomic headwinds impacting lending volumes, increased regulatory scrutiny on AI explainability and governance that could slow adoption, and intensified competition from alternative scoring models like VantageScore, which could challenge its market dominance and pricing power.
3 Main Long-Term Bull Details
- Dominant and Continuously Innovating Credit Scoring Franchise: FICO maintains its position as the industry standard with highly predictive scores like FICO Score 10T, which consistently outperforms alternatives. Strategic initiatives like the UltraFICO Score (leveraging cash flow data with Plaid) and the Direct Licensing Program are expanding market reach and enhancing financial inclusion, ensuring long-term relevance and monetization of its core IP.
- Accelerating Growth of the AI-Powered FICO Platform: The FICO Platform is recognized as the world's leading AI decisioning platform for financial services, demonstrating robust growth in platform revenue (up 66% YoY) and ARR (up 62% YoY). Its "land and expand" strategy, coupled with continuous innovation in AI-driven solutions and strategic partnerships (e.g., Accenture), positions FICO for sustained software growth and deeper integration into enterprise workflows.
- Strong Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns: FICO consistently delivers strong financial results, including significant revenue and earnings growth, and robust free cash flow generation. The company's commitment to returning capital to shareholders through substantial share repurchases (e.g., $1.96 billion in Q3 2026) reflects confidence in its business model and a focus on enhancing long-term shareholder value.
3 Main Long-Term Bear Details
- Regulatory and Competitive Pressures in the Mortgage Market: Significant uncertainty and delays persist regarding the full implementation of the FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program and the approval of FICO Score 10T by GSEs. The "Lender Choice" policy has introduced a "gaming problem" with VantageScore, leading to lenders pulling both scores, which could complicate market dynamics and potentially impact FICO's long-term pricing power and market share in this critical segment.
- Challenges in Legacy Software Transition and Operational Costs: While the FICO Platform is growing, the non-platform software segment continues to decline significantly (down 25% YoY), driven by migrations and end-of-life products. Managing this transition, including potential customer resistance and the operational complexities of winding down older offerings, could create a drag on overall software segment growth and profitability. Additionally, increased operating expenses for marketing and potential restructuring charges indicate ongoing investment and cost management challenges.
- Macroeconomic Sensitivity and Volume Volatility: FICO's Scores segment, particularly mortgage originations, remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic factors such as elevated interest rates and overall lending volumes. A sustained period of high interest rates or economic downturns could lead to reduced origination activity, directly impacting FICO's transaction-based revenues and potentially tempering its overall financial outlook.
- Competitors And Differentiation
- FICO's primary competitor, particularly in the mortgage market, is **VantageScore**. FICO differentiates itself through its **superior predictive accuracy**, citing independent analyses showing FICO Score 10T outperforms VantageScore 4.0. This advantage stems from FICO's **70 years of experience** in developing credit risk models and its expertise in transforming data into accurate assessments of default risk. FICO also emphasizes its **proprietary data sets** (like fraud consortium data) and its commitment to **responsible AI**, ensuring decisions are auditable, transparent, and explainable, which is crucial in regulated financial services.
- Recent Performance & What The Market'S Focused On
- FICO reported a strong Q3 2026, with revenues up 26% year-over-year to $674 million, and significant increases in both GAAP and non-GAAP net income and EPS. The company raised its fiscal 2026 guidance across all key metrics, reflecting confidence in its performance. The Scores segment saw robust growth of 41%, driven by B2B mortgage originations, while the Software segment grew 2%, with platform revenue surging 66% and platform ARR exceeding non-platform ARR for the first time. FICO also executed a record $1.96 billion in share repurchases. The market is currently focused on the timing of the FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program (DLP) approval by the GSEs, the adoption trajectory of FICO Score 10T and UltraFICO, the competitive dynamics with VantageScore (particularly the "gaming" aspect in mortgage lending), the continued acceleration of FICO Platform growth, and the company's capital allocation strategy, including debt reduction and future share buybacks, amidst a fluid macroeconomic environment impacting mortgage volumes.
- Revenue Segments And Estimated Mix
- Scores — Mix: ~68.1%; Source: Q3 2026 transcript; Trend: Up 41% YoY; B2B up 49%, B2C up 5%
- Software — Mix: ~31.9%; Source: Q3 2026 transcript; Trend: Up 2% YoY; Platform revenue up 66%, Non-platform revenue declined 25%
- Product Brands
- FICO Score
- myFICO.com
- FICO Platform
- FICO Score 10T
- UltraFICO Score
- Cash Flow UltraFICO Score
- FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program
- FICO Score Mortgage Simulator
- FICO Marketplace
- FICO Assistant
- FICO Focused Foundation Model
- Enterprise Fraud Solution on FICO platform
- FICO TRIAD Customer Manager
Bull / Bear DetailsFICO, a dominant data owner, continues robust growth driven by its proprietary credit scoring and advanced AI-driven FICO Platform. Strong Q3 performance, incre
Thesis
FICO, a dominant data owner, continues robust growth driven by its proprietary credit scoring and advanced AI-driven FICO Platform. Strong Q3 performance, increased FY26 guidance, and strategic product launches like FICO Score 10T and UltraFICO are accelerating adoption. Coupled with surging software platform ARR and significant share repurchases, FICO's core offerings and AI investments reinforce a compelling long-term outlook, despite ongoing regulatory complexities. (Updated: 2026-08-25)
Bull case
FICO's Scores segment demonstrates continued strength, with Q3 revenues up 41% year-over-year, driven by a 97% surge in mortgage originations revenue. The general availability of FICO Score 10T data sets and UltraFICO, with its proven predictive advantage and ability to expand credit access, solidifies FICO's market leadership and broadens its addressable market.
The Software segment shows significant momentum, with Platform ARR growing 62% year-over-year and exceeding non-platform ARR for the first time. A strong 148% Platform NRR and expanded collaboration with Accenture underscore the successful "land and expand" strategy for the FICO Platform, recognized as a leading AI decisioning platform.
FICO delivered another strong quarter, increasing its fiscal 2026 guidance for revenue (up 20% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS (up 42% YoY). The company generated $370 million in free cash flow in Q3 and returned significant capital to shareholders through a record $1.96 billion in share repurchases, demonstrating confidence in its financial strength.
Bear case
Significant uncertainty persists regarding the timeline for the FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program (DLP) to go live, as it awaits certification from one of the GSEs. This delay, coupled with the confirmed "gaming problem" where lenders pull both FICO and VantageScores, could complicate market adoption and create operational hurdles.
While the FICO Platform thrives, the non-platform software revenue declined 25% year-over-year, and non-platform ARR decreased 17%. This accelerating decline, driven by migrations and end-of-life products, indicates a continued drag from legacy solutions that FICO is actively managing through its end-of-life strategy.
The Scores segment remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors, with elevated interest rates and affordability challenges continuing to weigh on the mortgage market, keeping loan originations below historical norms. Despite FICO's confidence in its product, the competitive environment with VantageScore, particularly concerning its growing MBS market share, poses a long-term concern.
Bull / Bear Case
- Bear Case
- Significant uncertainty persists regarding the timeline for the FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program (DLP) to go live, awaiting certification from one of the GSEs. This delay, coupled with the confirmed 'gaming problem' where lenders pull both FICO and VantageScores, could complicate market adoption and create operational hurdles, potentially impacting FICO's long-term pricing power and market share. While the FICO Platform thrives, the non-platform software revenue declined 25% year-over-year, and non-platform ARR decreased 17%, indicating a continued drag from legacy solutions. The Scores segment remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors, with elevated interest rates and affordability challenges continuing to weigh on the mortgage market, keeping loan originations below historical norms, and the competitive environment with VantageScore poses a long-term concern.
- Bull Case
- Fair Isaac Corporation demonstrates continued strength in its Scores segment, with Q3 revenues up 41% year-over-year, driven by a 97% surge in mortgage originations revenue. The general availability of FICO Score 10T data sets and UltraFICO, offering proven predictive advantages and expanding credit access, solidifies FICO's market leadership and broadens its addressable market. The Software segment shows significant momentum, with Platform ARR growing 62% year-over-year and exceeding non-platform ARR for the first time, supported by a strong 148% Platform NRR and expanded collaboration with Accenture. FICO delivered another strong quarter, increasing its fiscal 2026 guidance for revenue (up 20% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS (up 42% YoY), while generating substantial free cash flow and executing record share repurchases.
- More Compelling & Why
- Bear. Given FICO's premium valuation, trading at a high P/E ratio (e.g., 55x forward earnings), the persistent regulatory and competitive pressures in the mortgage market, particularly the unresolved DLP certification and the 'gaming problem' with VantageScore, present significant, unresolved risks. The market's negative reaction post-earnings (-18.22% vs. SPY's 3.87%) suggests these uncertainties are being weighed heavily against the high valuation. My view would flip if the DLP receives final certification, FICO Score 10T achieves widespread adoption without significant pricing pressure, and the Software Platform's growth clearly offsets the decline in legacy non-platform revenue.
Key Factors
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | What To Watch | What It Signals | Where/How To Track | Free Alt Data | Paid Alt Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program (DLP) Go-Live with Resellers | This program is crucial for FICO to directly monetize its mortgage scores and for lenders to realize cost savings through performance model pricing, potentially broadening market access and increasing FICO's revenue. | Official announcement from FHFA or GSEs regarding certification and go-live of the DLP. Specific mention of the performance model being available. Watch for additional reseller agreements beyond the current 60% of mortgage volume, aiming for 90%. | Bullish if FHFA/GSEs announce official certification and the DLP goes live, especially with the performance model. Bullish if FICO announces agreements with additional material resellers, moving closer to 90% of mortgage volume. | FICO press releases, SEC filings (8-K), FHFA/GSE official announcements. Next earnings call (expected November 4, 2026). | Industry news outlets (e.g., American Banker, National Mortgage News), mortgage industry forums/blogs for discussions on DLP readiness and impact. | |
| Software Platform ARR Growth and Next-Gen Platform General Availability | The FICO Platform is central to FICO's long-term growth strategy, leveraging AI for decisioning. Sustained high ARR growth and new product launches demonstrate successful execution and market penetration. | Q4 2026 earnings call for Platform ARR growth rate (vs. Q3's 62% YoY). Announcement of general availability of the next-generation FICO Platform, including the enterprise fraud solution, anticipated 'later this calendar year'. Updates on the Accenture partnership's go-to-market rollout. | Bullish if Platform ARR growth sustains or accelerates above 62% YoY. Bullish if the next-generation FICO Platform and enterprise fraud solution are released as anticipated in calendar H2 2026. Bullish if the Accenture partnership shows early signs of expanded distribution. | FICO earnings calls and investor presentations, FICO press releases. | FICO's corporate blog/news section, industry tech news (e.g., AI in financial services), Alogram Inc. news for FICO Marketplace integration. | Thinknum: FICO Platform job postings (growth indicating investment/demand) |
| UltraFICO Score Client Onboarding and Adoption Metrics | UltraFICO expands FICO's market reach to subprime and near-prime consumers by incorporating cash flow data, offering a new avenue for Scores segment growth and demonstrating innovation beyond traditional credit files. | Updates on the pipeline of lender interest, number of clients onboarded for testing, and initial adoption metrics (e.g., percentage increase in approvals for target populations) in subsequent earnings calls. | Bullish if FICO reports significant progress in onboarding clients for testing and positive early adoption metrics, indicating strong market acceptance and potential for future revenue contribution. | FICO earnings calls and investor presentations, FICO press releases. | Plaid's developer blog/news, financial inclusion initiatives news, industry articles discussing alternative credit scoring solutions. | |
| General Availability and Adoption of FICO Score 10T in Conforming Market | FICO Score 10T is positioned as the most predictive credit score. Its widespread adoption in the conforming mortgage market solidifies FICO's competitive advantage and drives Scores segment revenue. | Official announcement from FHFA/GSEs approving FICO Score 10T for general use in conforming mortgages. Updates on the FICO Score 10T Adopter Program growth (number of lenders, volume represented beyond 70 lenders or 55% of top 50 originators' volume). | Bullish if FHFA/GSEs announce official approval for general use. Bullish if the adopter program continues to grow significantly, indicating strong market acceptance. | FICO press releases, SEC filings, FHFA/GSE official announcements, FICO investor presentations. Next earnings call (expected November 4, 2026). | Industry publications (e.g., Risk.net, American Banker), government housing finance agency reports on credit scoring modernization. | |
| Mortgage Market Conditions and Impact on Scores Segment Volumes | FICO's Scores segment, particularly mortgage originations, is highly sensitive to interest rates and overall lending volumes. Changes in these macro factors directly impact FICO's revenue. | Mortgage origination volumes reported by industry sources (e.g., MBA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac), and interest rate trends (e.g., 30-year fixed mortgage rates). FICO's Q4 2026 outlook on mortgage volumes. | Bullish if mortgage origination volumes stabilize or show signs of recovery (e.g., low single-digit growth or better). Bearish if volumes continue to decline significantly quarter-over-quarter or year-over-year. | Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly/monthly applications data, Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae housing market forecasts, Federal Reserve interest rate announcements, FICO earnings calls (expected November 4, 2026). | Google Trends: 'mortgage rates,' 'refinance mortgage.' Publicly available housing market data from government agencies. | Mortgage origination data providers (e.g., Black Knight, CoreLogic) for detailed volume trends. |
Key Reported Metrics, Reratings Triggers & ResultsTotal revenue is a primary indicator of FICO's overall business performance and growth, reflecting the combined success of its Scores and Software segments.
Upcoming print · 2026-11-04
| Key reported metrics | ||
|---|---|---|
| Metric | Last period | Why it matters |
| Total Revenues | 26% | Total revenue is a primary indicator of FICO's overall business performance and growth, reflecting the combined success of its Scores and Software segments. |
| Mortgage Originations Revenues | 97% | Mortgage originations are a key revenue driver for the Scores segment, and its growth rate reflects market conditions, FICO's pricing power, and competitive dynamics with VantageScore and 10T adoption. |
| Software Platform ARR Growth | 62% | This metric is crucial as it indicates the successful execution of FICO's long-term strategy to grow its AI decisioning platform, driving recurring revenue and future margin expansion. |
Last reported · 2026-07-29
| Key reported metrics | ||
|---|---|---|
| Metric | Last period | Why it matters |
| Software ACV Bookings Growth (Trailing 12-month) | 36% | Strong ACV bookings are a leading indicator for future Software segment revenue and ARR growth. The increasing deal size and frequency signal robust demand for FICO's platform and its AI-driven solutions. |
| Software Platform ARR Growth | 49% | Platform ARR growth is key to FICO's strategic shift and aligns with the 'AI '25: Apps & Edge Deployment' theme. It reflects successful migration from legacy systems, new customer wins, and expanded use cases, driving recurring revenue. |
Key QuestionsWill the FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program (DLP) receive final GSE certification and go live, and how quickly will FICO Score 10T be adopted in the conform
Will the FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program (DLP) receive final GSE certification and go live, and how quickly will FICO Score 10T be adopted in the conforming market given the competitive 'gaming' with VantageScore?
- Question 2
Can FICO sustain and further accelerate its Software Platform ARR growth with the upcoming general availability of the next-generation FICO Platform and the impact of the Accenture partnership, offsetting declines in non-platform revenue?
- Question 3
Will FICO's increased fiscal 2026 guidance prove conservative, or will persistent macroeconomic headwinds in the mortgage market and the evolving competitive landscape, including the adoption of UltraFICO, temper its full-year outlook?
Earnings Transcript Summary
· 2026Q3 Earnings Call
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. Driving adoption of FICO Score 10T and UltraFICO: Management is focused on the predictive advantage of FICO Score 10T, with independent analysis showing it outperforms competitors, and is actively expanding its adopter program. They are also pushing the general availability of UltraFICO, developed with Plaid, to provide a more complete view of credit risk for subprime and near-prime consumers. 2. Advancing the FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program (DLP): Management is awaiting GSE certification for the DLP to go live, which is expected to enable cost savings for lenders through a performance model pricing and has strong interest from resellers covering a significant portion of mortgage volume. 3. Expanding the FICO Platform and leveraging strategic partnerships: FICO is investing in the development and distribution of its FICO Platform, including the next-generation platform and enterprise fraud solution, and has expanded its collaboration with Accenture to accelerate market penetration and drive top-line growth and long-term margin expansion. | Call Takeaway & ToneThe call conveyed a confident and positive tone, with management expressing satisfaction with a strong third quarter and increasing fiscal 2026 guidance. The key takeaway is FICO's continued robust performance, driven by strong Scores segment growth, particularly in mortgage originations, and accelerating momentum in the FICO Platform. Management is strategically focused on the adoption of FICO Score 10T and UltraFICO, and advancing the Direct Licensing Program, despite acknowledging ongoing regulatory delays and competitive dynamics with VantageScore in the mortgage market. They are also actively managing the transition from non-platform to platform software and remain committed to returning capital to shareholders through buybacks. | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentIn Q2 2026, total revenues were up 39% year-over-year. Scores segment revenues increased by 60% year-over-year, with B2B revenues up 72%, B2C revenues up 5%, mortgage originations revenues up 127%, auto originations revenues up 13%, and credit card, personal loan, and other originations revenues up 6%. Software segment revenues increased by 7% year-over-year, with platform revenue growth of 54%, non-platform revenue declined 12%, SaaS revenues grew 19%, and on-premises revenues declined 4%. | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. Direct Licensing Program (DLP) status and GSE approval: Analysts inquired about the delay in the DLP going live and the status of GSE certification. Management responded that they are "literally waiting on certification from one of the GSEs" for the program to go live, with operational aspects ready and agreements covering 60% of mortgage volume already signed with resellers, and close to 90% once finalized. They confirmed significant reseller interest in the performance model. 2. VantageScore market share, gaming, and FICO volume loss: Analysts questioned VantageScore gaining market share in the MBS market and whether FICO was experiencing volume loss due to lenders pulling both scores for "gaming." Management stated they are not seeing volume loss, suggesting lenders are pulling both FICO and VantageScores to determine which offers a better rate for the consumer. They believe VantageScore is additive to the market, and the theoretical maximum share for Vantage due to gaming is in the 20s. 3. Mortgage origination revenue deceleration and Q4 outlook: Analysts asked about the year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter deceleration in mortgage origination revenue growth. Management attributed this to a slowdown in the overall mortgage market as interest rates ticked up, resulting in low single-digit volume growth, which aligns with bureau reports. | Revenue SegmentsTotal revenues were up 26% over last year. Scores segment revenues were $459 million, up 41% versus the prior year. Within Scores, B2B revenues were up 49% (or 59% normalizing for a prior year multiyear license renewal), B2C revenues were up 5%, mortgage originations revenues were up 97%, auto originations revenues were up 15%, and credit card, personal loan and other originations revenues were up 9%. Software segment revenues were $215 million, up 2% year-over-year (or 10% normalizing for point-in-time and professional services revenue). Within Software, platform revenue grew 66% (or high 30% range excluding migrations), non-platform revenue declined 25%, SaaS revenues grew 21%, on-premises revenues declined 16%, and professional services revenues declined 24%. |
· 2026Q2 Earnings Call
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. Driving adoption of FICO Score 10T and the Direct Licensing Program (DLP): Management is actively adjusting pricing (e.g., $0.99 per score plus $65 funding fee) to encourage widespread use of FICO 10T, which they believe is the most predictive score, and to get the DLP live with resellers. 2. Accelerating growth in the FICO Platform within the Software segment: They highlighted 54% platform revenue growth and 49% platform ARR growth, emphasizing the "land and expand" strategy with existing customers and new wins, leveraging AI capabilities. 3. Returning capital to shareholders: Management underscored their commitment to share repurchases, noting a record $605 million buyback in Q2 and an additional $170 million post-quarter end, viewing it as an attractive use of cash. | Call Takeaway & ToneThe call conveyed a positive and confident tone, with management highlighting a very strong second quarter and a great start to the fiscal year, leading to an increase in fiscal 2026 guidance. The key takeaway is FICO's robust performance driven by strong Scores segment growth, particularly in mortgage originations, and accelerating momentum in the FICO Platform. Management is strategically positioning FICO Score 10T for widespread adoption through competitive pricing and advancing the Direct Licensing Program. While acknowledging regulatory complexities and competitive dynamics in the mortgage market, management expressed strong confidence in FICO's superior product and market position, downplaying the threat from VantageScore. They also emphasized continued shareholder returns through aggressive share repurchases. | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentIn Q1 2026, total revenues were up 16% year-over-year. Scores segment revenues increased by 29% year-over-year, with B2B revenues up 36% and B2C revenues up 5%. Mortgage originations revenues grew by 60%, auto originations revenues by 21%, and credit card, personal loan, and other originations revenues by 10%. Software segment revenues increased by 2% year-over-year, with platform revenue growth of 37% and a 13% decline in non-platform revenue. SaaS revenues grew 12%, while on-premises revenues declined 12%. | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. FICO Score 10T pricing philosophy and competition with VantageScore: Analysts questioned the rationale behind the $0.99 pricing and how FICO views its competitiveness against VantageScore. Management responded that the pricing encourages 10T adoption and offers parity with VantageScore on price, while FICO 10T is superior in predictiveness. They also stated they are largely indifferent between the per-score and performance models as it's revenue-neutral for FICO. 2. Timeline and hurdles for FICO 10T adoption and Direct Licensing Program (DLP) go-live: Analysts inquired about delays in the DLP and the release of 10T historical data. Management acknowledged that the process has taken longer than initially expected but stated they are "closing in on it," primarily awaiting FHFA sign-off for resellers to calculate scores. They also noted that the release of 10T data is up to the FHFA and GSEs. 3. VantageScore's market share and potential impact on FICO: Analysts repeatedly asked about VantageScore's market share in various segments and the potential for it to take share, especially in conforming mortgages. Management asserted that VantageScore's market share is "trivial" (ballpark 2%) and largely unpaid for. They expressed confidence that FICO 10T is highly competitive on both predictability and price, and they "don't see good reasons to switch," anticipating no volume loss to Vantage in the current fiscal year. | Revenue SegmentsTotal revenues were up 39% over last year. Scores segment revenues were $475 million, up 60% versus the prior year. Within Scores, B2B revenues were up 72%, B2C revenues were up 5%, mortgage originations revenues were up 127%, auto originations revenues were up 13%, and credit card, personal loan and other originations revenues were up 6%. Software segment revenues were $217 million, up 7% over last year. Within Software, platform revenue grew 54%, non-platform revenue declined 12%, SaaS revenues grew 19%, and on-premises revenue declined 4%. |
· 2026Q1 Earnings Call
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On | Call Takeaway & Tone | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses) | Revenue Segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. **Innovation and product adoption**: Management is heavily focused on the adoption of FICO Score 10T, the FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program, and the new UltraFICO Score solution, highlighting their benefits for lenders and consumers. They are also focused on the general availability of the next-generation FICO platform and Enterprise Fraud Solution. 2. **Software business growth and platform migration**: Management emphasized strong bookings and ARR growth in the software segment, particularly for the FICO Platform, and the ongoing strategy to migrate customers from legacy non-platform solutions to the more efficient platform. 3. **Shareholder returns**: The company continues to return capital to shareholders through share buybacks, repurchasing 95,000 shares in Q1 at an average price of $1,707 per share. | Call Takeaway & ToneThe overall takeaway from the call is one of cautious optimism. FICO delivered a strong first quarter, with significant year-over-year growth in its Scores segment, particularly in mortgage originations, and continued momentum in its Software platform business. Management expressed confidence in exceeding their fiscal 2026 guidance, although they chose to reiterate it for now due to macro uncertainties. The tone was positive regarding innovation and strategic initiatives, especially around the Direct License Program, FICO Score 10T, and the FICO Platform, but cautious when discussing external factors like mortgage market timelines and regulatory developments. | Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentIn Q4 2025, total revenues were up 14% year-over-year. Scores segment revenues increased by 25% year-over-year, with B2B revenues up 29% and B2C revenues up 8%. Mortgage originations revenues grew by 52%, auto originations revenues by 24%, and credit card, personal loan, and other originations revenues by 7%. Software segment revenues were flat year-over-year (0%), with platform revenue growth of 17% and a 7% decline in non-platform revenue. | 3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. **FICO Score 10T availability and LLPA grids**: Analysts inquired about the timeline for 10T's official approval and use, as well as the release of LLPA grids. Management stated they do not have a timeline for GSE approval but expect 10T to be available for Direct Licensing in the first half of calendar 2026. They also highlighted significant challenges with developing LLPA grids, especially for VantageScore, due to issues like gaming, adverse selection, and potential objections from the securitization market. 2. **Concerns regarding the Direct License Program (DLP) and Performance Model**: Analysts raised concerns about potential miscalculation of scores by resellers in the DLP and how regulators might view passing performance fees to consumers. Management clarified that scores calculated by resellers will be identical to those from bureaus, and the performance model is an optional offering for lenders, not a mandatory one. 3. **Reiterating fiscal year guidance despite strong Q1**: Analysts questioned why FICO maintained its fiscal 2026 guidance instead of raising it after a strong first quarter. Management explained that despite confidence in exceeding guidance, they prefer to wait until the Q2 earnings call due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding interest rates and overall mortgage volumes, to provide a more accurate updated outlook. | Revenue SegmentsTotal revenues were up 16% year-over-year. Scores segment revenues increased by 29% year-over-year, with B2B revenues up 36% and B2C revenues up 5%. Mortgage originations revenues grew by 60%, auto originations revenues by 21%, and credit card, personal loan, and other originations revenues by 10%. Software segment revenues increased by 2% year-over-year, including 37% platform revenue growth and a 13% decline in non-platform revenue. SaaS revenues grew 12%, while on-premises revenues declined 12%. |
Transcript Tidbits
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| About Expanding Eligible MarketFICO announced the general availability of the FICO Score 10T data sets and UltraFICO. The FICO Score 10T Adopter Program has grown to 70 lenders, representing about 55% of the volume generated by the top 50 mortgage originators, which translates to $587 billion in eligible annual originations based on 2025 HMDA data and more than $1.87 trillion in eligible annual servicing. FICO Score 10T is now integrated into Optimal Blue's and LoanPASS's mortgage platforms to streamline implementation. The next-generation UltraFICO Score, developed in partnership with Plaid, combines the FICO Score with consumer-permissioned cash flow data, targeting subprime and near-prime consumers across card, personal loan, and auto lending. Analysis shows 79% of nonprime applicants with positive account balances saw higher scores under UltraFICO, and a 7% relative increase in approvals with no incremental risk. The FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program (DLP) is still under review by the GSEs, but FICO has signed direct license agreements with partners and resellers representing about 60% of mortgage volume and is in active negotiations for closer to 90%. The next-generation FICO Platform, including an enterprise fraud solution, is anticipated to be generally available later this calendar year, which is expected to increase penetration within current target accounts and expand the operating market beyond them. FICO also expanded its collaboration with Accenture to help enterprises turn investments into business results with a phased-in geographic rollout. | About CompetitionFICO Score 10T outperforms Vantage 4 on all three key statistical measures of predictiveness and across every origination year studied. FICO's predictive advantage is attributed to its decades of experience in developing predictive credit risk models, not access to different data. There is data showing VantageScore gaining some share in the MBS market, but FICO believes lenders are pulling both FICO and Vantage scores for 'gaming' purposes, where they try to deliver a better rate to a consumer by using whichever score is higher. FICO is not seeing volume loss, suggesting VantageScore is additive to the market rather than a replacement. The theoretical maximum for Vantage share is estimated to be in the 20s, tied to this gaming. If FICO Score 10T comes into the mix, there could be a 'score shopping environment' with classic FICO, Vantage, and 10T. Vantage has never been through a down cycle, leading to more uncertainty for investors who might demand a premium for paper not as well understood. FICO maintains a strong, healthy relationship with credit bureaus as partners, but acknowledges competing in mortgage scores. | About The Broader IndustryElevated interest rates and ongoing affordability challenges continue to weigh on the mortgage market, keeping loan originations below historical norms. AI adoption is accelerating at an unprecedented pace, reshaping how businesses operate and how consumers interact with financial institutions. Three structural forces are driving this shift: the need to operationalize AI at enterprise scale, rising regulatory demands for governance and explainability, and evolving customer expectations for personalized real-time decisions as AI agents emerge. Customers are integrating FICO Platform to turn AI investments into business outcomes, while ensuring decisions are governed, explainable, and auditable. The mortgage market has held up fairly decently, with volumes better than originally guided, as rates haven't gotten worse. A slowdown in the mortgage market was observed as rates crept up. The recent trigger loan legislation had little dramatic impact on FICO's mortgage volume side of the business. | Where Things Are HeadedFICO is increasing its fiscal 2026 guidance, with revenue guidance now at $2.53 billion (up 20% versus prior year), GAAP net income guidance at $850 million (up 30%), GAAP earnings per share of $36.86 (up 39%), non-GAAP net income guidance of $979 million (up 33%), and non-GAAP earnings per share of $42.43 (up 42%). The near-term focus is on driving top-line growth, while the long-term focus is on driving margin expansion. The general availability of the next-generation FICO Platform, including an enterprise fraud solution, is anticipated later this calendar year. Fourth-quarter operating expenses are expected to be modestly higher due to incremental marketing expenses for the Accenture partnership launch and anticipated one-time restructuring charges. Fourth-quarter interest expense is also expected to be higher due to a $1.5 billion term loan issued in June. In the near term, FICO will use cash to pay down debt, with share repurchases remaining an attractive use of cash beyond that. Platform ARR growth is expected to continue to accelerate, and FICO has an active end-of-life strategy for older products, migrating customers to the platform. FICO does not anticipate VantageScore's market share to exceed the 20s. FICO 11 is in the lab, and UltraFICO 3 is being readied. The indirect side of FICO's business is expected to grow through partnerships like the one with Accenture. | Updates On ThemeRisk | Broader Themes EmergingThe transcript highlights the accelerating adoption of AI and the need to operationalize AI at enterprise scale, along with rising regulatory demands for governance and explainability. It also points to evolving customer expectations for personalized real-time decisions as AI agents emerge. These align with broader themes of 'Agentic AI Moving from Pilots to Production with ROI Focus' and 'Responsible AI'. | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)With another strong quarter, we are increasing our fiscal 2026 guidance. Scores segment revenues in our third quarter were $459 million, up 41% versus the prior year. Platform ARR grew 62% versus the prior year to $413 million and represented 51% of our total Q3 '26 ARR. For the first time, platform ARR dollars exceed non-platform ARR dollars, marking an important milestone. FICO Score 10T outperforms Vantage 4 on all 3 key statistical measures of predictiveness. We are super pleased to now be in this significant strategic partnership with one of the top SIs in the world, where they're going to be going to market with us, with our IP and their capabilities. | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Elevated interest rates and ongoing affordability challenges continue to weigh on the mortgage market, keeping loan originations below historical norms. In our Software segment, we delivered $215 million in Q3 revenues, up 2% year-over-year. Results included... a 25% decline in non-platform revenue. We're not crazy about lenders choice as a policy. We think it's bad policy because it encourages gaming. VantageScore gaining some share in the MBS market. It's not that easy. Most likely, 10T will come into the mix and you'll have classic and Vantage and 10T. And you're absolutely right. I mean that's kind of a shopping -- a score shopping environment. Some like it and some don't like it so much [performance model and funding fee]. | HiringOperating expenses for the quarter... an increase of 8% quarter-over-quarter, driven by marketing for FICO World and some personnel expenses. Our updated guidance includes fourth quarter operating expenses that are modestly higher than in our third quarter due to incremental front-end loaded marketing expenses to support the launch of our new partnership with Accenture, as well as some anticipated onetime restructuring charges. |
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| About Expanding Eligible MarketFICO Score 10T incorporates rental and utility payment history, enabling more consumers to qualify for mortgages. The company updated its FICO Score 10T performance model pricing in the FICO mortgage direct licensing program from $4.95 per score plus $33 funding fee to $0.99 per score plus $65 funding fee to encourage adoption. FICO added 11 more lenders to its FICO Score 10T early adopter program, bringing the total to 55 lenders who account for more than $495 billion in annual serviceable originations. FICO is moving closer to the go-live dates of its next-generation Cash Flow UltraFICO Score with strategic partner Plaid. The $0.99 pricing for 10T is designed to encourage widespread use of the score in the prospecting and customer acquisition phases, with the goal of encouraging more housing and mortgages. | About CompetitionFICO does not anticipate share loss competition in any vertical. FICO Score 10T is positioned as the most predictive credit score for all borrowers. FICO believes that FICO 10T at $0.99 is at parity with VantageScore at $0.99 on price, and is 'highly competitive' on both predictability and price. The company stated that VantageScore's market share is 'trivial,' estimated at around 2%. In the nonconforming mortgage market, lenders use FICO Classic and FICO 10T, not Vantage. The securitization market is 'not ready to accept Vantage,' and Vantage data only goes back to 2013, meaning it has 'never been tested through a full cycle,' leading to a 'lack of understanding' around prepayment and default risk. FICO highlighted challenges for AI displacing its score due to strict regulatory requirements on credit underwriting outcome explainability and model governance, noting that the CFPB previously shut down Upstart's black box underwriting experiment. | About The Broader IndustryThe FHFA and FHA are driving an initiative to get FICO Score 10T into the market in the coming months. AI adoption is accelerating, and stakeholders are weighing associated opportunities and risks, particularly in highly regulated industries like financial services where explainability and trust are non-negotiable. Mortgage originations revenues were up 127% year-over-year, attributed to decent volume growth during a period when interest rates dropped. There is market sentiment for being able to evaluate FICO 10T and VantageScore at the same time. FICO noted that in a two-score system, a 'gaming problem' is 'almost inevitable' where one score might be more beneficial to the consumer at different times. The mortgage market is a $13 trillion market, and regulatory changes are typically foreseeable. While there has been a 'falloff in the subprime' auto and card market, it has been 'picked up throughout the rest of the prime, super prime'. | Where Things Are HeadedFICO is increasing its fiscal 2026 guidance, with revenue guidance now at $2.45 billion (up 23% versus prior year), GAAP net income guidance at $825 million (up 27%), and non-GAAP net income guidance at $946 million (up 29%). The company anticipates the release of FICO Score 10T data and the timeline provided by the FHFA and GSEs. Bookings in the second half of the year are expected to exceed the first half. Operating expenses and interest rate expenses are expected to trend modestly upward from the Q2 run rate into the back half of the fiscal year, mainly due to personnel and marketing for FICO World. FICO World 2026 will be held from May 19-22 in Orlando to showcase innovations. The UltraFICO Score is 'likely to be a pretty significant factor in the Scores business in the future'. FICO's guidance assumes no loss of volume to Vantage in this fiscal year, and the direct licensing program's performance model may push some revenue from late this fiscal year to early next due to timing. | Updates On ThemeData | Broader Themes EmergingThe transcript highlights the broader themes of 'Agentic AI Moving from Pilots to Production with ROI Focus' through FICO Platform's agentic-by-design architecture and its ability to operationalize AI at scale for real business outcomes. 'Responsible AI' and 'AI Security as a Core Differentiator' are emphasized by the strict regulatory requirements for explainability, model governance, and non-discrimination in credit underwriting, as well as FICO's patents in ethical AI and blockchain for traceable decision-making. The company's deep domain expertise and proprietary data access reinforce 'Deep Verticalization and Data Moats'. The FICO Platform's ability to integrate multiple functions and drive a 'self-reinforcing cycle of value generation' aligns with 'AI Workflow Automation Platforms'. | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)We had a very strong quarter and a great start to the first half of our fiscal year. Based on our results and outlook, we are increasing our fiscal 2026 guidance. FICO Score 10T is the most predictive credit score for all borrowers. FICO Platform is the world's leading AI decisioning platform for financial services. At FICO, AI is already driving meaningful results today while creating significant opportunities that we are well positioned to capture. We continue to view share repurchases as an attractive use of cash. UltraFICO is likely to be a pretty significant factor in the Scores business in the future. | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Results included... a 12% decline in non-platform revenue. Although I can't give you a date, I can tell you that we're closing in on it. I think that some of the expectations were a little on the optimistic side. Vantage data only goes back to 2013. It's never been tested through a full cycle. I'm not really sure -- what does that mean? It means that downstream, investors are going to demand some kind of a premium for the lack of understanding around the prepayment risk and default risk. We don't necessarily think that's going to continue. So we tend to take the same conservative approach for the rest of the year. Near as we can tell, nobody is paying for VantageScores and the bureau send along the VantageScore for free when someone buys a FICO score. I would not hold my breath. I think that's going to take a long time. | HiringOperating expenses for the quarter... an increase of 4% quarter-over-quarter, driven by personnel expenses. We expect operating expense dollars to trend modestly upward from the Q2 run rate into the back half of the fiscal year, driven mainly by personnel expenses and marketing. |
| About Expanding Eligible Market | About Competition | About The Broader Industry | Where Things Are Headed | Updates On Theme | Broader Themes Emerging | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short) | Hiring |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| About Expanding Eligible MarketFICO announced the addition of 4 new strategic reseller participants (Xactus, Cotality, Ascend Companies, and CIC Credit) to the FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program, and signed a DLP agreement with MeridianLink. FICO Score 10T is expected to be available for Direct Licensing in both conforming and nonconforming markets in the first half of calendar '26. A strategic partnership with Plaid was announced to deliver the next generation of UltraFICO Score, which will launch for distribution in the first half of calendar 2026. FICO continued to expand adoption of FICO Score Mortgage Simulator by partnering with SharperLending Solutions, Credit Interlink, and Ascend Partners, bringing the total to 5 resellers, with another large reseller expected to sign shortly. In the software business, FICO is committed to broadening its reach beyond financial services, getting traction in telco and other verticals through its partner program and marketplace. The company aims for 500 named accounts globally, with 350 in financial services and 150 outside, noting there are 'several hundred to go' in financial services. | About CompetitionFICO Score 10T offers significant improvements in predictive accuracy, fairness, and model stability, providing tremendous benefits for lenders, investors, and borrowers compared to 'other alternatives on the market'. Research suggests that the FICO Score and VantageScore are 'more than 20 points different 30% of the time in both directions', making it difficult to substitute one for the other. Significant problems need to be overcome with LLPA grids for VantageScore, including gaming, adverse selection, and potential objections from the securitization market. FICO Score 10T is architecturally very similar to FICO Classic, built on the same kinds of attributes weighted in a similar way, which is 'very different from Vantage'. The FICO Score continues to be the 'trusted industry standard used by 90% of top U.S. lenders'. | About The Broader IndustryThe conforming mortgage market is anticipating the general availability of FICO Score 10T. There is significant uncertainty in the macro environment, including the Fed's actions, which impacts overall volumes. The time line for the release of LLPA grids is unknown, and there are 'tremendous challenges with figuring out how to make those work because of the gaming and adverse selection issues'. The industry has a preference for FICO 10T and Vantage grids to come out simultaneously, as indicated by a letter from 35 economists and industry groups to the FHFA director. Discussion around moving from tri-merge to bi-merge credit reports highlights concerns about gaming, adverse selection, and potential costs to Fannie and Freddie and the U.S. taxpayer. There is 'chatter around a potential 10% cap on card APR', which could put more pressure on lenders to understand subprime credits. Lenders are reportedly struggling with their cost base this year. | Where Things Are HeadedFICO is reiterating its fiscal 2026 guidance and is 'well positioned to exceed' it, with a plan to revisit guidance on the Q2 earnings call. FICO Score 10T is expected to be available for Direct Licensing in both conforming and nonconforming markets in the first half of calendar '26. The enhanced UltraFICO Score solution will launch for distribution with Plaid in the first half of calendar 2026. The company expects to go live soon with multiple Direct License Program partners. FICO World 2026 will be held from May 19 through 22 in Orlando, Florida, to showcase innovations. Software ARR growth is expected to continue to accelerate in FY '26, driven by strong bookings. FICO anticipates a gradual migration of non-platform customers to its platform for greater efficiency. The next-generation FICO platform and Enterprise Fraud Solution on FICO platform will soon be generally available. FICO expects operating expense dollars to 'continue to trend upward modestly throughout the fiscal year'. The company expects FY '26 ACV bookings to be 'significantly higher than FY '25', with an increasing frequency of bigger deals. | Updates On ThemeData | Broader Themes EmergingThe emphasis on 'always-on, real-time customer insights' and 'real-time decisions at scale' aligns with the broader industry trend of embedding AI into workflows for tangible ROI, reflecting the 'Agentic AI Moving from Pilots to Production with ROI Focus' and 'AI Workflow Automation Platforms' themes. The discussion of FICO Focused Foundation Model and the platform's horizontal appeal suggests a move towards 'Hyper-Specialized Agentic AI' and 'Deep Verticalization and Data Moats'. Concerns about gaming, adverse selection, and regulatory scrutiny in the mortgage market, particularly regarding LLPA grids and score compatibility, highlight the growing importance of 'AI Security as a Core Differentiator' and 'Responsible AI' in regulated industries. | Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)We had another strong quarter and are reiterating our fiscal 2026 guidance. We're pretty confident we're going to be able to beat our guidance. Our strong bookings in recent quarters gives us increased confidence that our ARR growth will continue to accelerate in FY '26. We had a great start to the year and are well positioned to exceed our fiscal year guidance. The deal size is going up, the frequency of it and the amounts. We think the FY '26 ACV bookings are going to be significantly higher than FY '25. | Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)There's just a lot of questions out in the macro environment. I don't think anyone knows what the time line for the LLPA grids looks like. There are tremendous challenges with figuring out how to make those work because of the gaming and adverse selection issues. It's unlikely that grids will be a parity. I don't think anybody really knows what's going to happen in mortgage. There's some potential noise in that market [credit card]. | HiringOperating expenses grew 4% quarter-over-quarter, excluding restructuring, driven primarily by personnel expenses. FICO is investing in go-to-market across both the software and Scores segments. The company has been 'fairly aggressive this year in expanding that headcount' in direct sales and partner sales. |
Notes
| Date | Comment | Comment Type | Comment Sentiment | Link | Price Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | FICO reported a strong Q2 2026, with revenues up 39% and non-GAAP EPS up 60%, leading to increased fiscal 2026 guidance. Scores segment growth was robust, driven by mortgage originations. The company adjusted FICO Score 10T pricing to encourage adoption and anticipates the Direct Licensing Program going live soon. The stock outperformed SPY (2.47% vs. 1.26%), indicating positive market reception to the strong results and optimistic outlook. | Earnings Transcript | Neutral | +2.47% (vs SPY: +1.21%) | |
| 2026-07-29 | FICO reported strong Q3 2026 results, raising FY26 guidance, driven by robust Scores segment growth and accelerating FICO Platform ARR. New initiatives like FICO Score 10T and UltraFICO are gaining traction, and an Accenture partnership aims to boost software distribution. Despite positive messaging, the stock fell 18.22% (underperforming SPY), likely reflecting market concerns over persistent Direct Licensing Program delays and competitive 'gaming' with VantageScore. | Earnings Transcript | Negative | -18.22% (vs SPY: -22.09%) |
Upcoming Events
| Catalyst ID | Estimated Timing | Estimated Date Start | Estimated Date End | Catalyst | Why It Matters | Ticker Or Theme Specific | Transcript Date | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FICO_fd0dde8b | waiting on certification from one of the GSEs | 2026-08-25 | 2026-10-31 | GSE certification for the FICO Mortgage Direct Licensing Program (DLP) to go live. | This program allows lenders to realize cost savings through a performance model pricing, which FICO believes will be very beneficial and encourage more customer acquisition, making FICO more competitive. | Ticker | 2026-07-29 | earnings_transcript |
| FICO_20217b82 | Q4 2026 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-12-31 | GSE acceptance and implementation of FICO Score 10T for conforming mortgage originations. | FICO Score 10T is considered the most predictive score, and its widespread adoption in the conforming market is crucial for FICO's mortgage segment, solidifying its competitive advantage and potentially expanding credit access. | Ticker | 2026-07-29 | earnings_transcript |
| FICO_4b77c7bb | at a later date | 2026-09-01 | 2027-04-24 | General availability and adoption of FICO Score 10T by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the conforming mortgage market, following FHFA approval. | This is a critical regulatory decision that could significantly impact FICO's Scores segment revenue and competitive landscape in the mortgage industry, as 10T offers improved predictive accuracy. | Ticker | 2026-01-28 | earnings_transcript |
| FICO_46be2569 | sometime in the summer | 2026-06-01 | 2026-09-30 | FHFA and GSEs release FICO Score 10T historical data to the market and subsequently accept FICO 10T for use in the conforming mortgage market. | Bullish if released and accepted promptly, as it solidifies FICO's position and drives adoption of its most predictive score, potentially increasing Scores segment revenue. Bearish if delayed or if acceptance comes with unfavorable conditions. | Ticker | 2026-04-28 | earnings_transcript |
| FICO_a4fb5323 | waiting on the selling guidelines | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | FHFA and GSEs release definitive selling guidelines and Loan-Level Price Adjustment (LLPA) grids for both FICO Score 10T and VantageScore in the conforming mortgage market. | Crucial for market clarity and adoption. Bullish if grids are favorable to FICO 10T and mitigate gaming issues. Bearish if they create significant competitive disadvantages or introduce complexity that hinders FICO 10T adoption. | Theme | 2026-04-28 | earnings_transcript |
| FICO_52602fbf | new pricing based on the updated models | 2026-04-24 | 2027-04-24 | The release and implementation of Loan-Level Price Adjustment (LLPA) grids by the FHFA for FICO Score 10T and VantageScore. | The structure and timing of these grids will directly impact the competitive dynamics between FICO and VantageScore in the mortgage market, potentially affecting FICO's market share and revenue. | Theme | 2026-01-28 | earnings_transcript |