DUOL

T3S&P 1500Value (IWD)

Duolingo, Inc.

Next est. report 2026-11-03 · AMC

AI Short '24: Education & Learning Disintermediation Archetypes '26: Urban Educated Business Models '24: Membership & Subscription Models Data Owners '25: Education, Research & Scientific Knowledge Education '24: Digital Education Tools HaveNots Shorts '25: Premium Subscriptions MegaTech '26: OpenAI Ecosystem Tech Trends '25: Attention Economy Tech Trends '25: Data Network Effects Thematic Momo Short '25: Consumer AI Apps

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Overview

Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) offers a popular mobile application for learning languages, math, music, and chess, making education engaging and accessible to individual

Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) offers a popular mobile application for learning languages, math, music, and chess, making education engaging and accessible to individual consumers globally. The company primarily generates revenue from subscriptions, which are significantly larger than its growing advertising segment. Duolingo is expanding its offerings and leveraging AI to enhance learning and user retention, targeting global user growth.

Key Inputs And Sourcing

1. AI Compute/Models

Not in registry

other · Global (OpenAI, Anthropic, open-source, local Chinese models) · tens of millions of dollars

Source AI expenses in cost of goods sold are 'tens of millions of dollars'. Shift to open-source models is reducing costs. Uses OpenAI, Anthropic, and local Chinese models in China.

Confidence: high

2. Cloud Hosting/Infrastructure

Not in registry

other · Global · unknown (big cost)

Source Hosting is identified as 'another big cost for us as well' within cost of goods sold.

Confidence: high

3. Labor (Software Development, AI/ML Engineers, Content Creators)

Matched (medium)engine_advertising_brand_tracking · access=file · map_only

labor · Global (Pittsburgh, PA HQ, remote talent) · unknown

Source As a software company, significant labor is required for product development, AI/ML engineering, and content creation, driving the 'Green Machine' and new features. R&D spend is expected to outpace revenue growth.

Confidence: medium

4. Performance Marketing & Influencer Partnerships

Not in registry

other · Global (specifically China, Indonesia, India for influencers) · unknown

Source The company is becoming 'significantly more sophisticated' in performance marketing and influencer usage, seeing 'good traction' and increasing top-of-funnel growth.

Confidence: medium

5. Payment Processing Fees

Not in registry

other · Global · unknown

Source As a subscription-based business with in-app purchases, payment processing fees are an inherent cost, though not explicitly quantified in the transcript.

Confidence: low

Industry Publications

ZDNet (zdnet.com) — Comprehensive coverage of enterprise AI adoption, cloud infrastructure, security, practical AI implementation, and IT decision-maker insights, directly relevant to Duolingo's AI strategy and cost management.
TechCrunch (techcrunch.com) — Essential for tracking early-stage AI innovation, consumer app trends, and venture capital activity in the education technology space, providing insights into potential competitors and emerging technologies.
EdTech Magazine (edtechmagazine.com) — Focuses on technology in education, including digital learning tools, AI in pedagogy, and educational software developments, directly relevant to Duolingo's core business.
The Verge (theverge.com) — Covers consumer technology, apps, and digital culture, offering insights into user engagement trends, new feature rollouts, and the broader competitive landscape for mobile-first platforms like Duolingo.
AI Business (aibusiness.com) — Provides news and analysis on AI strategies, implementation, and monetization across various industries, offering valuable context for Duolingo's AI-driven product development and cost optimization efforts.

Economic Data Watch

1. FRED — University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Index

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field UMICH/CSC_M_SA

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Reflects consumer confidence in the US, which can influence discretionary spending on education subscriptions like Duolingo.

Signal to watch Increasing index indicates stronger consumer sentiment, potentially leading to higher subscription uptake.

Confidence: high

2. FRED — Disposable Personal Income

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field DPI

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Higher disposable income in the US suggests more financial capacity for consumers to invest in self-improvement and educational apps.

Signal to watch Rising DPI indicates increased consumer purchasing power, favorable for subscription services.

Confidence: high

3. FRED — Retail and Food Services Sales

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field RSXFS

Cadence monthly

Why it matters A broad indicator of consumer spending health in the US, which can correlate with overall economic activity and discretionary spending on apps.

Signal to watch Consistent growth in retail sales suggests a healthy consumer economy, supportive of Duolingo's business.

Confidence: high

4. Trading Economics — China Retail Sales

Not in registryaccess=scrape

Metric/field China Retail Sales Annual

Cadence monthly

Why it matters China is Duolingo's second-largest market and expected to become its largest. Retail sales reflect consumer spending power in this critical region.

Signal to watch Strong or accelerating annual retail sales growth in China indicates a robust consumer market for Duolingo's offerings.

Confidence: high

5. Trading Economics — China Consumer Confidence

Not in registryaccess=scrape

Metric/field China Consumer Confidence

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Consumer confidence in China directly impacts the willingness of users in a key growth market to engage with and subscribe to Duolingo's services.

Signal to watch Improving consumer confidence in China suggests a more favorable environment for user acquisition and monetization.

Confidence: high

Free Alt Data Watch

1. Apple App Store / Google Play Store — App Rankings

Not in registry

Metric/field Duolingo app rank in 'Education' category (US, China, Global)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Indicates Duolingo's visibility and popularity within its core market segments and geographies, directly correlating with top-of-funnel user acquisition.

Signal to watch Consistent or improving top rankings suggest strong user interest and effective product/marketing strategies.

Confidence: high

2. Google Trends — Web Search Interest

Not in registry

Metric/field "Duolingo" search interest index (Worldwide)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Reflects global public interest and awareness of the Duolingo brand, serving as a proxy for potential new user growth and brand momentum.

Signal to watch Rising search interest indicates increasing brand awareness and potential for user growth.

Confidence: high

3. Duolingo Careers Page — Job Postings

Matched (medium)engine_advertising_brand_tracking · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Number of open job postings for 'AI Engineer' or 'Machine Learning Engineer'

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Hiring trends for AI/ML roles can signal Duolingo's continued investment in AI-driven product enhancements and cost-saving initiatives.

Signal to watch Increased hiring in AI/ML roles suggests aggressive development and integration of AI features, supporting product stickiness and efficiency.

Confidence: high

4. SEC EDGAR — Company Filings

Not in registry

Metric/field 8-K filings for DUOL

Cadence event_driven

Why it matters 8-K filings disclose material events that could impact Duolingo's operations, strategy, or financial performance, including partnerships, acquisitions, or significant product announcements.

Signal to watch Monitoring for strategic announcements related to product expansion, monetization, or global market entry.

Confidence: high

5. Reddit — Subreddit Activity

Not in registry

Metric/field r/duolingo subscriber count and daily post volume

Cadence daily

Why it matters Provides insights into community engagement, user sentiment, and discussion topics around Duolingo, reflecting user satisfaction and potential product issues or popular features.

Signal to watch Growing subscriber count and healthy post volume indicate an active and engaged user community.

Confidence: medium

Paid Alt Data Watch

1. Similarweb — Web & App Traffic / Engagement

Matchedsimilarweb_website_traffic_engagement · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Duolingo App: Daily Active Users (DAU), Monthly Active Users (MAU), Average Session Duration (Global, US, China)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Directly tracks Duolingo's core user growth and engagement metrics, which are central to its strategic focus and long-term value creation.

Signal to watch Sustained acceleration in DAU/MAU and increasing average session duration indicate successful product enhancements and user retention.

Confidence: high

2. Sensor Tower — App Intelligence

Not in registry

Metric/field Duolingo App: Downloads (Global, US, China), In-App Purchase Revenue (Global, US, China)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Provides granular data on new user acquisition and monetization performance across key geographies, including the impact of new tiers and features.

Signal to watch Strong download growth and increasing IAP revenue, especially in key markets, signal effective user acquisition and monetization strategies.

Confidence: high

3. Consumer Edge — Transaction Data

Not in registry

Metric/field Duolingo: Subscription Revenue Growth (YoY), Average Transaction Value (ATV) for Super/Max/Super Lite (US)

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Offers real-time insights into Duolingo's subscription revenue trends and the performance of different monetization tiers, including the new Super Lite.

Signal to watch Positive year-over-year subscription revenue growth and stable/increasing ATV across premium tiers indicate successful monetization efforts.

Confidence: high

4. SpendHound — Enterprise IT Spend Analysis

Matched (medium)spendhound_b2b_saas_ai_vendor_spend · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Enterprise spending on "AI software" and "AI cloud services" by education tech companies

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Monitors broader industry investment in AI, which can indicate competitive pressures or general trends in AI adoption and cost management within the education tech sector.

Signal to watch Tracking industry-wide AI spend can provide context for Duolingo's own AI cost savings and competitive positioning.

Confidence: medium

5. Apptopia — App Usage & Performance

Matchedapptopia_app_usage_engagement · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Duolingo App: User Retention Rate (D1, D7, D30), Churn Rate (Global, US, China)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Directly measures the stickiness of the Duolingo product and the effectiveness of its 'Green Machine' in improving user retention, a key company priority.

Signal to watch Improving D1, D7, D30 retention rates and declining churn rates indicate a more engaging and effective product, supporting long-term user growth.

Confidence: high

Search Keywords Brand Product

Duolingo app
Super Duolingo
Duolingo Max
Super Lite
Duolingo Math
Duolingo Music
Duolingo Chess
Duolingo English Test
video call feature
language learning platform
AI education
freemium business model
user growth strategy
online education
AI cost savings
subscription monetization
ad-supported tier

Search Keywords Event Phrases

Duolingo earnings
Q2 2026 results

Search Keywords Policy Regulatory

China AI regulation

What They Do (Plain English & Analogies): Duolingo is like a free, fun game on your phone or computer that teaches you new things. Most famously, it helps you learn different languages, such as Spanish or French, through short, bite-sized lessons that feel like playing a game. But it's not just for languages anymore; it also teaches you math, music, and even how to play chess. They use smart computer programs (AI) to make the lessons better and more personalized, almost like having a private tutor that's always available and makes learning addictive. The company aims to make education universally available, starting with a free product and offering paid subscriptions for an enhanced experience.
Very Brief History: Duolingo, Inc. was founded in 2011 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with the mission to make education free, fun, and accessible to everyone. It quickly grew into a popular online platform and mobile application for language learning, expanding its curriculum to over 40 languages and later diversifying into other subjects like math, music, and chess.
"Street Stereotype": Duolingo is generally perceived by investors and analysts as a mission-driven company prioritizing aggressive user growth (Daily Active Users or DAUs) over immediate short-term profits. The 'street' sees it as a leader in AI-enhanced education, expanding its reach into new subjects, but also scrutinizes its ability to effectively monetize its large user base without compromising the free user experience, leading to some concerns about near-term bookings and profitability.
Subsidiaries On Linked In*: {"subsidiaries":[]}
Customer Sectors & Example Clients: Duolingo primarily serves individual consumers across various demographics globally. Their customers are learners interested in acquiring new skills, particularly languages, but also math, music, and chess. For Duolingo Math, they are specifically targeting K-12 students. As a direct-to-consumer platform, they do not have traditional 'client companies' in the B2B sense.
New Customers / Segments They'Re Targeting: Duolingo is actively targeting K-12 students for its Math product, shifting its strategy from trying to make the average adult 'love' math. They are also expanding their overall user base by making AI-powered conversational features, like video calls, more accessible to a broader range of subscribers, aiming to attract more users interested in deeper language practice.
Sales Geographies And Expansion Plans: Duolingo currently sells its products globally, with significant user bases in the United States and China. China is noted as its second-largest market in terms of daily active users and is expected to become the largest within a year or two. The company is experiencing broad-based DAU growth across all regions, with Asia being the fastest-growing, and the U.S. also showing increased growth. While the focus is on growing the existing global user base, no specific new country expansion plans were explicitly mentioned beyond general global user acquisition.
How Key Themes May Help/Hurt: Duolingo is well-positioned to benefit from the 'AI '25: Distribution & Monetization' theme. The radical deflation in AI inference costs, driven by a shift to open-source models, directly helps Duolingo democratize one-on-one conversational tutoring. This allows them to offer advanced interactive features like video calls to more users (e.g., Super subscribers) without diluting gross margins. Their established distribution with a large installed customer base and extensive audience enables them to introduce AI capabilities without substantial incremental customer acquisition costs, supporting premium subscriptions and greater platform engagement. The self-reinforcing data flywheels, where increasing user interactions generate proprietary feedback, improve personalization and recommendations, strengthening their competitive advantages. However, the theme also presents risks. If AI-native platforms or alternative search interfaces redirect consumer attention, it could weaken Duolingo's existing customer relationships. Additionally, if AI investment fails to generate attractive returns due to rising costs or customer expectations for free AI functionality, it could compress margins, although Duolingo's focus on cost-effective open-source AI mitigates some of this risk.

3 Main Long-Term Bull Details

Aggressive User Growth & Market Expansion: Duolingo's strategic prioritization of Daily Active User (DAU) growth, targeting 100 million DAUs by 2028, is yielding strong results, with Q2 DAUs accelerating to 23% year-over-year and user retention (CURR) reaching an all-time high. This broad-based growth across regions, including increased U.S. growth and China becoming the second-largest market, validates their 'Green Machine' approach and reinforces confidence in achieving the DAU target.
AI-Driven Learning & Cost Efficiency: Significant AI cost reductions, driven by a shift to open-source models, are enhancing profitability and enabling broader feature access. The cost of AI-powered video calls is now under $0.01, allowing rollout to all Super subscribers. This efficiency gain has led to an increased adjusted EBITDA outlook for 2026 (26.5%), demonstrating AI's dual benefit of improving user experience and financial performance.
Diversified & Evolving Monetization Strategies: Duolingo is effectively diversifying its monetization strategies to align with user growth, moving away from friction-based approaches. Longer free trials (now 1-month) are increasing conversions, and the company is testing an ad-supported 'Super Lite' tier to capture users unlikely to buy Super. Furthermore, the company sees a large, untapped opportunity in ad revenue, becoming more sophisticated in its approach.

3 Main Long-Term Bear Details

Prioritization of User Growth Over Immediate Monetization: The strategic prioritization of user growth over immediate monetization continues to constrain short-term financial performance. Bookings growth is expected to remain slower (9% in Q3, 11% for FY26), and R&D and sales & marketing spend will outpace revenue growth. This deliberate trade-off, while long-term focused, creates near-term pressure on top-line expansion and profitability metrics.
Uncertainty in Premium Tier Monetization: Uncertainty surrounds the long-term monetization strategy for premium tiers. The future of the Max subscription tier is under review, with potential for sunsetting or differentiation, which could impact ARPU. The 'Super Lite' ad-supported tier is still in early testing, and its success in attracting new paying users without cannibalizing existing Super subscribers remains unproven.
Challenges in New Subject Growth & Attention Spans: Duolingo faces challenges in adapting to decreasing global attention spans, requiring ongoing experimentation to optimize session length and engagement. Furthermore, the strategy for new subjects like Math has shifted, acknowledging initial missteps in targeting average adults and now focusing on K-12 students. This pivot may delay the materialization of significant DAU contributions from these new areas.

Competitors And Differentiation: Duolingo competes with a variety of language learning apps and platforms, including Busuu, Babbel, Memrise, Pimsleur, Rosetta Stone, italki, Anki, LingQ, MeloLingua, Beelinguapp, Lingvist, and Copycat Cafe. Duolingo differentiates itself through its highly gamified, mobile-first approach, making language learning engaging and accessible. It leverages AI to personalize lessons, provide adaptive practice, and offer increasingly sophisticated speaking exercises, including AI-powered video calls. The company also stands out by expanding beyond languages into subjects like math, music, and chess, and by maintaining a strong freemium model that offers free learning while monetizing through valuable paid experiences.
Recent Performance & What The Market'S Focused On: Duolingo reported a strong Q2 2026, with Daily Active Users (DAUs) accelerating to 23% year-over-year and user retention (CURR) reaching an all-time high. The company increased its target adjusted EBITDA outlook to 26.5% from 25% for 2026, driven by AI cost savings. Despite this, the market's focus remains on the company's maintained bookings guidance (expecting 9% growth in Q3 and 11% for the full year), which indicates a continued prioritization of user growth over immediate monetization. Investors are also closely watching the evolving monetization strategies, including the rollout of video calls to Super subscribers, the testing of the 'Super Lite' ad-supported tier, and the uncertain future of the Max tier. The potential for a Q4 DAU growth of 25% or higher, which would trigger a bonus payout, is also a key focus.

Revenue Segments And Estimated Mix: Subscriptions (Super Duolingo, Max, Super Lite) — Mix: largest segment, much larger than ads; Source: Q2 2026 earnings transcript; Trend: Company remains primarily a subscription business, experimenting with Super Lite (ad-supported, cheaper than Super) and evolving Max/Super features. Subscription revenue increased by 31% in Q1 2026.
Advertising — Mix: smaller than subscriptions; Source: Q2 2026 earnings transcript; Trend: Significant opportunity seen, increasing sophistication and investment in ad revenue, expecting improvements over next few quarters. Advertising revenue grew by 15% in Q1 2026.
Duolingo English Test (DET) — Mix: n/m; Source: Q1 2026 earnings transcript; Trend: Declined by 6% in Q1 2026.
In-app purchases — Mix: n/m; Source: Q1 2026 earnings transcript; Trend: Decreased by 11% in Q1 2026.
Product Brands: Duolingo
Duolingo Math
Duolingo Music
Duolingo Chess
Super Duolingo
Duolingo Max
Super Lite
Duolingo English Test

Bull / Bear Details

Duolingo is executing a strategic pivot to aggressively grow daily active users (DAUs), targeting 100 million by 2028, by enhancing product quality with AI and

Thesis

Duolingo is executing a strategic pivot to aggressively grow daily active users (DAUs), targeting 100 million by 2028, by enhancing product quality with AI and expanding into new subjects. Strong Q2 DAU acceleration and record retention, coupled with significant AI cost savings enabling broader feature access, reinforce the long-term vision. While short-term bookings growth remains constrained by this prioritization, evolving monetization strategies and global market expansion present a compelling bull case for redefining education. (Updated 2026-10-21)

Bull case

Duolingo's strategic focus on user growth is yielding strong results, with Q2 DAUs accelerating to 23% year-over-year and user retention (CURR) reaching an all-time high. This broad-based growth across regions, including increased U.S. growth and China becoming the second-largest market, validates the "Green Machine" approach and reinforces confidence in achieving the 100 million DAU target by 2028.
Significant AI cost reductions, driven by a shift to open-source models, are enhancing profitability and enabling broader feature access. The cost of AI-powered video calls is now under $0.01 per call, allowing rollout to all Super subscribers. This efficiency gain has led to an increased adjusted EBITDA outlook for 2026 (26.5%), demonstrating AI's dual benefit of improving user experience and financial performance.
Duolingo is effectively diversifying its monetization strategies to align with user growth, moving away from friction-based approaches. Longer free trials (now 1-month) are increasing conversions, and the company is testing an ad-supported "Super Lite" tier to capture users unlikely to buy Super. Furthermore, the company sees a large, untapped opportunity in ad revenue, becoming more sophisticated in its approach.

Bear case

The strategic prioritization of user growth over immediate monetization continues to constrain short-term financial performance. Bookings growth is expected to remain slower (9% in Q3, 11% for FY26), and R&D and sales & marketing spend will outpace revenue growth. This deliberate trade-off, while long-term focused, creates near-term pressure on top-line expansion and profitability metrics.
Uncertainty surrounds the long-term monetization strategy for premium tiers. The future of the Max subscription tier is under review, with potential for sunsetting or differentiation (e.g., limited vs. unlimited video calls), which could impact ARPU. The "Super Lite" ad-supported tier is still in early testing, and its success in attracting new paying users without cannibalizing existing Super subscribers remains unproven.
Duolingo faces challenges in adapting to decreasing global attention spans, requiring ongoing experimentation to optimize session length and engagement. Furthermore, the strategy for new subjects like Math has shifted, acknowledging initial missteps in targeting average adults and now focusing on K-12 students. This pivot may delay the materialization of significant DAU contributions from these new areas.

Bull / Bear Case

Bear Case: The strategic prioritization of user growth over immediate monetization continues to constrain Duolingo's short-term financial performance, with bookings growth expected to remain slower (9% in Q3, 11% for FY26). This deliberate trade-off, coupled with R&D and sales & marketing spend outpacing revenue growth, creates near-term pressure on top-line expansion and profitability metrics. Uncertainty surrounds the long-term monetization strategy for premium tiers, including the future of the Max subscription tier which is under review for potential sunsetting or differentiation. The 'Super Lite' ad-supported tier is still in early testing, and its success in attracting new paying users without cannibalizing existing Super subscribers remains unproven. Additionally, Duolingo faces challenges in adapting to decreasing global attention spans and a shifted strategy for new subjects like Math, which may delay significant DAU contributions from these areas.
Bull Case: Duolingo's strategic focus on aggressive user growth is yielding strong results, with Q2 Daily Active Users (DAUs) accelerating to 23% year-over-year and user retention (CURR) reaching an all-time high. This broad-based growth across regions, including increased U.S. growth and China becoming the second-largest market, reinforces confidence in achieving the 100 million DAU target by 2028. Significant AI cost reductions, driven by a shift to open-source models, are enhancing profitability and enabling broader feature access, such as AI-powered video calls now costing under $0.01 per call. This efficiency gain has led to an increased adjusted EBITDA outlook for 2026 (26.5%). Furthermore, Duolingo is diversifying its monetization strategies with longer free trials and testing an ad-supported 'Super Lite' tier, while also seeing a large, untapped opportunity in ad revenue.
More Compelling & Why: Bear. While Duolingo's long-term user growth strategy is compelling, its current valuation, particularly its EV/EBITDA of 26.58 as of October 17, 2026, which is 35% above its 10-year median of 19.62, suggests the market is pricing in significant future growth and profitability that is not yet reflected in short-term bookings. The strategic trade-off of immediate monetization for user growth, coupled with uncertainties around premium tier strategies and the unproven success of new monetization efforts like 'Super Lite,' presents considerable near-term execution risk. My view would flip to Bull if Duolingo demonstrates a clear and accelerated path to translating its strong DAU growth into bookings and revenue growth that significantly outpaces its current 11-16% forecast, while maintaining or improving its adjusted EBITDA margin, thereby justifying its elevated EV/EBITDA multiple.

Key Factors5 rows

Key Factor	Why It Matters	What To Watch	What It Signals	Where/How To Track	Free Alt Data	Paid Alt Data
Completion of video call rollout to all existing Super subscribers and clarity on the future of the Max tier.	Expanding AI-powered video call access to all Super subscribers enhances the value proposition of the Super tier, potentially improving retention and subscriptions. The decision on the Max tier's future impacts premium monetization strategy and ARPU.	Management commentary on the timeline for rolling out video call to all existing Super subscribers (expected 'over the next few months'). An announcement regarding the future of the Max tier ('next couple of quarters'), including potential sunsetting or differentiation (e.g., limited vs. unlimited video calls).	Bullish: Video call successfully rolled out to all Super subscribers, leading to increased Super retention/subscriptions; Max tier strategy clearly defined without significant revenue loss.	Company's quarterly earnings releases and conference calls (expected Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 earnings calls).	[]	1. YipitData — Consumer Transaction Data Matched (medium)yipitdata_consumer_transaction_derived_indicators · access=file · map_only Metric/field Duolingo Super subscription trends (new subscriptions, churn rates) Cadence weekly Why it matters Monitors the impact of video call rollout on Super subscriber growth and retention. Signal to watch Acceleration in Super subscription growth or improvement in retention rates post-rollout. Confidence: Medium
Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA outlook increased to 26.5% from 25%, driven by AI cost savings.	The increased Adjusted EBITDA outlook demonstrates Duolingo's ability to improve profitability through AI cost efficiencies, particularly from shifting to open-source models, while continuing to invest in user growth.	Reported Adjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 and Q4 2026, and the full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin, compared to the updated 26.5% outlook. AI costs in cost of goods sold are in the tens of millions.	Bullish: Adjusted EBITDA margin meets or exceeds the updated 26.5% outlook for FY26, confirming effective AI cost management and operational discipline.	Company's Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings releases and conference calls.	[]	1. Apptio / IT Financial Management platforms — Enterprise IT Spend Analysis Not in registry Metric/field Enterprise spending on "AI software" and "AI cloud services" by industry sector Cadence monthly Why it matters Provides direct, granular insight into actual enterprise investment and consumption of AI services, which can indicate broader trends in AI cost efficiency. Signal to watch Overall trend of declining AI inference costs across the industry, supporting Duolingo's cost savings. Confidence: Low
Initial results and future plans for the 'Super Lite' ad-supported subscription tier.	The 'Super Lite' tier represents a new monetization strategy aimed at converting price-sensitive free users without cannibalizing existing Super subscribers. Its success is crucial for diversifying revenue streams and expanding the paying user base.	Management commentary on the performance of the Super Lite test, including subscriber numbers, revenue contribution, conversion rates from free users, and any decision on a wider rollout. The pricing is approximately half of Super, offering twice the energy.	Bullish: Positive test results indicating strong adoption, meaningful incremental revenue contribution, and minimal cannibalization of Super subscribers, leading to a decision for wider rollout.	Company's quarterly earnings releases and conference calls (expected Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 earnings calls).	[]	1. Apptopia — App Intelligence Not in registry Metric/field Duolingo in-app purchase revenue estimates (Super Lite vs. Super) Cadence daily Why it matters Provides early indications of Super Lite's revenue contribution and potential cannibalization of the Super tier. Signal to watch Growth in Super Lite revenue without a significant decline in Super revenue. Confidence: Medium
Q4 Daily Active User (DAU) growth reaching 25% or higher year-over-year, triggering an internal bonus plan.	This threshold indicates exceptional user growth momentum, validating Duolingo's strategic prioritization of DAUs and potentially signaling stronger future monetization as users eventually convert. It also triggers an internal bonus, reflecting management's confidence.	The reported Q4 2026 Daily Active User (DAU) year-over-year growth rate, as disclosed in the company's Q4 earnings release.	Bullish: Q4 DAU growth is 25% or higher year-over-year, triggering the internal bonus plan.	Company's Q4 2026 earnings release and subsequent conference call (expected early 2027).	1. Google Trends — Web Search Interest Not in registry Metric/field "Duolingo" search interest index (Worldwide) Cadence daily Why it matters Proxies general public interest and potential new user acquisition for Duolingo. Signal to watch Sustained or increasing trend in search interest, especially in Q4 2026. Confidence: Medium 2. App Store / Google Play Store — App Rankings Not in registry Metric/field Duolingo app ranking in Education category (Worldwide) Cadence daily Why it matters Indicates app visibility and potential for new downloads and user growth. Signal to watch Consistent top rankings or improvement in key markets. Confidence: Medium	1. Sensor Tower — App Intelligence Not in registry Metric/field Duolingo Daily Active Users (DAU) estimates (Worldwide) Cadence daily Why it matters Provides real-time estimates of Duolingo's user base growth and engagement. Signal to watch Acceleration in estimated DAU growth rates towards 25% YoY in Q4. Confidence: High
China becoming Duolingo's largest market in terms of Daily Active Users (DAUs) and continued strong monetization.	China is a rapidly growing market for Duolingo, expected to become its largest DAU market within 1-2 years. Sustained strong growth and monetization in China are crucial for global expansion and long-term revenue.	Management commentary on China's DAU growth rate and its position relative to other markets. Specific updates on monetization trends in China, including revenue per user, in future earnings calls.	Bullish: China DAUs continue to grow rapidly, remaining on track to become the largest market within 1-2 years, and monetization remains strong or improves.	Company's quarterly earnings releases and conference calls, particularly management's prepared remarks and Q&A (expected Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 earnings calls).	1. Google Trends — Web Search Interest Not in registry Metric/field "Duolingo China" search interest index (China) Cadence daily Why it matters Reflects public interest and potential user acquisition specifically in the Chinese market. Signal to watch Consistent or increasing search interest for Duolingo in China. Confidence: Medium	1. QuestMobile — China Mobile App Data Not in registry Metric/field Duolingo Daily Active Users (DAU) and Monthly Active Users (MAU) in China Cadence monthly Why it matters Provides direct insights into Duolingo's user growth and engagement within the critical Chinese market. Signal to watch Continued strong growth in DAU/MAU, outpacing other key regions. Confidence: High

Key Reported Metrics, Reratings Triggers & Results6 rows

This metric reflects Duolingo's profitability and efficiency, especially as it balances aggressive user growth investments with AI cost savings. An improved mar

Upcoming print · 2026-11-03

Key reported metrics			Rerating thresholds
Metric	Last period	Why it matters	What's needed for rerating	Rerating context	Earnings date
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	25.9%	This metric reflects Duolingo's profitability and efficiency, especially as it balances aggressive user growth investments with AI cost savings. An improved margin outlook indicates effective financial discipline.	Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 25.5% or higher.	An improved margin demonstrates effective AI cost management and operational discipline, reinforcing the long-term profitability thesis despite aggressive user growth investments. This signals efficient scaling and a clear path to the increased full-year outlook.	2026-11-03
Bookings Growth	8%	Bookings growth is a key indicator of future revenue and overall business health. While deliberately managed for user growth, any deviation from guidance will signal shifts in monetization strategy effectiveness.	Bookings Growth of 10% year-over-year or higher.	Stronger bookings growth than guided would signal that evolving monetization strategies are gaining traction faster, alleviating short-term top-line pressure and strengthening the bull case for future revenue expansion.	2026-11-03
Daily Active User (DAU) Growth	23%	DAU growth is Duolingo's top priority, crucial for reaching its 100 million DAU target by 2028 and driving long-term value. Sustained acceleration indicates successful product and marketing strategies.	Daily Active User (DAU) Growth of 24% year-over-year or higher.	Sustained acceleration in DAU growth is Duolingo's top priority, validating its strategic pivot to user acquisition and reinforcing confidence in achieving its 100 million DAU target by 2028, driving long-term value.	2026-11-03
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	25.9%	This metric reflects Duolingo's profitability and efficiency, especially as it balances aggressive user growth investments with AI cost savings. An improved margin outlook indicates effective financial discipline.	Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 25.5% or higher.	An improved margin demonstrates effective AI cost management and operational discipline, reinforcing the long-term profitability thesis despite aggressive user growth investments. This signals efficient scaling and a clear path to the increased full-year outlook.	2026-11-03
Bookings Growth	8%	Bookings growth is a key indicator of future revenue and overall business health. While deliberately managed for user growth, any deviation from guidance will signal shifts in monetization strategy effectiveness.	Bookings Growth of 10% year-over-year or higher.	Stronger bookings growth than guided would signal that evolving monetization strategies are gaining traction faster, alleviating short-term top-line pressure and strengthening the bull case for future revenue expansion.	2026-11-03
Daily Active User (DAU) Growth	23%	DAU growth is Duolingo's top priority, crucial for reaching its 100 million DAU target by 2028 and driving long-term value. Sustained acceleration indicates successful product and marketing strategies.	Daily Active User (DAU) Growth of 24% year-over-year or higher.	Sustained acceleration in DAU growth is Duolingo's top priority, validating its strategic pivot to user acquisition and reinforcing confidence in achieving its 100 million DAU target by 2028, driving long-term value.	2026-11-03

Last reported · 2026-05-04

Key reported metrics
Metric	Last period	Why it matters
Adjusted EBITDA Margin	29.8%	Adjusted EBITDA Margin reflects the company's profitability and efficiency. It is expected to be impacted by increased investments in user growth and AI features in 2026.
Bookings Growth	24%	Bookings growth is a core top-line demand signal, indicating the overall health of the business and future revenue. The company expects slower bookings growth in the short term due to its strategic shift.
DAU Growth	30%	Daily Active User (DAU) growth is Duolingo's top priority for 2026, as the company shifts to reaccelerate its user base. Sustained growth is crucial for long-term value and reaching the 100 million DAU target by 2028.

Key Questions

Will Duolingo sustain and further accelerate its Daily Active User (DAU) growth, particularly towards the 25% Q4 bonus threshold, and can it achieve its 100 mil

Will Duolingo sustain and further accelerate its Daily Active User (DAU) growth, particularly towards the 25% Q4 bonus threshold, and can it achieve its 100 million DAU target by 2028 while maintaining or improving its increased adjusted EBITDA outlook?

Question 2: How effectively will Duolingo's evolving monetization strategies, including the rollout of video call to Super, the testing of Super Lite, and increased focus on ad revenue, impact average revenue per user (ARPU) and overall bookings growth, especially given the uncertainty surrounding the Max tier?
Question 3: Can Duolingo's refined Math strategy for K-12 students and the ongoing development of Music meaningfully contribute to overall DAU growth and engagement, and will continued AI cost savings from open-source models further enhance profitability and enable broader feature deployment?

Earnings Transcript SummaryTable

2026-08-05 · 2026Q2 Earnings Call

3 Things Management Is Most Focused On	Call Takeaway & Tone	Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment	3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)	Revenue Segments
3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. Accelerating User Growth and Retention: Management is heavily focused on driving Daily Active User (DAU) growth, which accelerated to 23% year-over-year in Q2, and improving user retention, with their CURR (current user retention rate) reaching an all-time high. Their ambitious goal is to reach 100 million DAUs by 2028. 2. Enhancing Product Quality and Teaching Effectiveness: A core focus is on continuously improving the product through 'The Green Machine' (hundreds of small product changes) to teach languages, chess, Math, and Music better. This includes making features like video call more accessible and increasing speaking exercises across tiers. 3. Strategic Investment with Financial Discipline: While investing deliberately in long-term growth opportunities, management is also focused on operating with discipline. They have increased their adjusted EBITDA outlook to 26.5% from 25%, partly due to significant AI cost savings, demonstrating a commitment to efficient growth and profitability alongside investment.	Call Takeaway & ToneThe overall takeaway from the call is that Duolingo delivered a strong Q2, marked by accelerating Daily Active User (DAU) growth and record-high user retention, driven by continuous product innovation and strategic use of AI. Management reiterated its long-term vision of reaching 100 million DAUs by 2028, emphasizing that prioritizing user growth and teaching effectiveness will ultimately create a significantly more valuable business. The company is also evolving its monetization strategies, focusing on value-added features and efficient advertising, while leveraging AI cost savings to improve profitability. The tone of the call was positive and confident, with management expressing strong belief in their strategic direction and disciplined execution.	Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentIn Q1 2026, Duolingo's overall revenue grew 27% year-over-year. Segment-wise, subscription revenue increased by 31%, advertising revenue grew by 15%, Duolingo English Test revenues declined by 6%, and in-app purchases decreased by 11%.	3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. Bookings Guidance vs. DAU Growth: Analysts questioned why the full-year bookings guidance wasn't raised more despite accelerating DAU growth. Management responded that users don't monetize immediately due to the freemium model, and they are intentionally operating within a bookings growth 'box' (roughly 11% year-over-year) to prioritize DAU growth and teaching better. 2. Monetization Strategy (Max, Super Lite, Ads): Analysts inquired about the future of the Max tier, the rollout of video call to Super subscribers, and the testing of an ad-supported tier (Super Lite). Management explained they are reducing video call costs to offer it to all Super subscribers, are still evaluating the future of Max (potentially sunsetting or differentiating with unlimited calls), and are testing Super Lite as a cheaper, ad-supported option for users unlikely to buy Super. They also acknowledged a growing focus on improving ad revenue and using performance marketing. 3. AI Costs and Open-Source Models: Analysts pressed on the impact of open-source models on AI costs and margins, and the overall significance of AI expenses. Management stated that AI costs in cost of goods sold are in the tens of millions, and they are actively transitioning to open-source models where quality is comparable to significantly reduce these costs. This shift is a key factor in their improved adjusted EBITDA outlook and enables them to offer more AI features to more users.	Revenue SegmentsFor Q2 2026, Duolingo reported Daily Active Users (DAUs) grew 23% year-over-year, accelerating from Q1. The company did not provide specific Q2 revenue growth by segment in the transcript. For Q3 2026, Duolingo expects revenue growth of 11%, and for the full year 2026, they anticipate revenue growth of roughly 16%.

Transcript Tidbits4 rows

2026-08-05

About Expanding Eligible Market	About The Broader Industry	Where Things Are Headed	Updates On Theme	Broader Themes Emerging	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Hiring
About Expanding Eligible MarketDuolingo is expanding its product offerings to include chess, Math, and Music, with a focus on teaching Math to K-12 students. The company aims to reach 100 million daily active users (DAUs) by 2028. China is noted as a very exciting and growing market, currently Duolingo's second-largest in terms of DAUs, and is expected to become the largest in a year or two.	About The Broader IndustryThe company notes a general trend of decreasing attention spans, with social media apps being used in short bursts, which Duolingo is actively addressing for its longer lesson formats. There has been a significant improvement in open-source AI model options compared to a year ago, leading to reduced costs for AI usage. Duolingo also operates on a freemium model where users do not monetize immediately, taking time to convert to payers.	Where Things Are HeadedDuolingo is investing deliberately for long-term growth, aiming for 10-12% bookings growth and 15-18% revenue growth for the full year, with an increased adjusted EBITDA outlook of 26.5%. The company remains focused on reaching 100 million DAUs by 2028. Monetization efforts are shifting to strategies that align with user growth, such as longer free trials (moving to 1-month trials) and testing a new ad-supported 'Super Lite' tier at about half the price of Super. Video call functionality, now significantly cheaper due to open-source models, is being rolled out to most new Super subscribers and is expected to reach existing Super subscribers in the coming months. The future of the 'Max' tier is uncertain, with possibilities of limited video calls for Super vs. unlimited for Max, or potentially sunsetting Max. Duolingo sees a large opportunity in ad revenue and is becoming more sophisticated in performance marketing to complement organic growth. The strategy for Math is to focus on K-12 students rather than trying to make the average adult 'love' math.	Updates On ThemeDuolingo	Broader Themes EmergingThe transcript highlights the broader theme of AI-driven transformation in education, with open-source AI models reducing costs and enabling wider deployment of advanced learning features. Another emerging theme is the evolution of freemium monetization strategies, moving towards value-added features and diversified revenue streams like ad-supported tiers, rather than friction-based approaches. The challenge of adapting educational content and engagement models to declining global attention spans is also a notable industry trend.	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Q2 was a strong quarter. DAUs grew 23% year-over-year, accelerating from Q1. We have increased our target adjusted EBITDA outlook to 26.5% from the 25%. Our user momentum is strong, our business model continues to generate significant cash flow. We remain focused on reaching 100 million DAUs in 2028. The good news is that through a lot of really hard work, we've been able to bring down the cost of video call. It is now under $0.01 per video call. Our retention, our user retention, pretty much all metrics of user retention are at an all-time high. The U.S. growth has increased quite a bit in the last quarter. China is a very exciting market for us. It keeps growing.	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)For Q3 itself, we expect bookings of approximately $307 million or growth of 9%. I don't know what's going to happen with Super Lite in the end. Another possibility truthfully is that we may actually sunset Max. If suddenly all users have it, there's less incentive to buy. I thought that we could get the average person on the street to get addicted to learning math. I was wrong. The world, in general, attention span is going down.	HiringThe rate of experimentation has increased faster than headcount, meaning that per person, more experiments are being conducted every week.

2026-08-05

About Expanding Eligible Market	About Competition	About The Broader Industry	Where Things Are Headed	Updates On Theme	Broader Themes Emerging	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Hiring
About Expanding Eligible MarketDuolingo's Daily Active Users (DAUs) grew 23% year-over-year, accelerating from Q1, driven by continuous product improvements in teaching languages, chess, Math, and Music. The company is focused on reaching 100 million DAUs by 2028. Growth is broad-based across all regions, with increased growth in the U.S. and Asia being the fastest-growing. China is currently the second-largest market in terms of DAUs and is expected to become the largest in 1-2 years. The strategy for Math has shifted to primarily target K-12 students, acknowledging that the initial approach to engage average adults was incorrect.	About CompetitionThe transcript does not explicitly mention direct competitors by name or specific competitive dynamics within the language learning app market. However, Luis von Ahn noted that 'pretty much every app our size or larger than us, makes a ton more money from ads than we do,' implying a competitive landscape for ad revenue generation.	About The Broader IndustryThe company observes a general trend of decreasing attention spans in the world, with social media apps being used in short bursts, which Duolingo is actively addressing for its longer lesson formats. There has been a significant improvement in open-source AI model options compared to a year ago, leading to a substantial decrease in the cost of AI usage. The expectation is that the cost per usage of AI will continue to come down as the company, and likely the broader industry, shifts more towards open-source models. Most companies heavily using AI are expected to employ a portfolio approach, combining proprietary and open-source models, with a growing weight towards open-weight models for cost efficiency.	Where Things Are HeadedDuolingo is investing deliberately for long-term growth, aiming for full-year bookings growth of 10-12% and revenue growth of 15-18%. The target adjusted EBITDA outlook has been increased to 26.5% from 25% due to AI cost savings. The company remains focused on reaching 100 million DAUs by 2028. Monetization efforts are shifting to strategies that align with user growth, such as extending free trials to one month and testing a new ad-supported 'Super Lite' tier at about half the price of Super. Video call functionality, now significantly cheaper due to open-source models, is being rolled out to most new Super subscribers and is expected to reach existing Super subscribers in the coming months. The future of the 'Max' tier is uncertain, with possibilities of offering limited video calls for Super vs. unlimited for Max, or potentially sunsetting Max, with a decision expected in the next couple of quarters. Duolingo sees a large opportunity in ad revenue and is becoming more sophisticated in performance marketing to complement organic growth. The strategy for Math is to focus on K-12 students.	Updates On ThemeDistribution	Broader Themes EmergingThe transcript highlights the broader theme of AI-driven transformation in education, with open-source AI models reducing costs and enabling wider deployment of advanced learning features. Another emerging theme is the evolution of freemium monetization strategies, moving towards value-added features and diversified revenue streams like ad-supported tiers, rather than friction-based approaches. The challenge of adapting educational content and engagement models to declining global attention spans is also a notable industry trend.	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Q2 was a strong quarter. DAUs grew 23% year-over-year, accelerating from Q1. We have increased our target adjusted EBITDA outlook to 26.5% from the 25%. Our user momentum is strong, our business model continues to generate significant cash flow. We remain focused on reaching 100 million DAUs in 2028. The good news is that through a lot of really hard work, we've been able to bring down the cost of video call. It is now under $0.01 per video call. Our retention, our user retention, pretty much all metrics of user retention are at an all-time high. China is a very exciting market for us. It keeps growing.	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)For Q3 itself, we expect bookings of approximately $307 million or growth of 9%. I don't know what's going to happen with Super Lite in the end. Another possibility truthfully is that we may actually sunset Max. If suddenly all users have it, there's less incentive to buy. I thought that we could get the average person on the street to get addicted to learning math. I was wrong. The world, in general, attention span is going down.	HiringThe transcript mentions that the number of experiments Duolingo is putting up per week has increased faster than its headcount over the last year, implying increased efficiency per person. No specific hiring initiatives, workforce expansion/cuts, or types of roles being added or reduced are explicitly mentioned.

2026-02-26

About Expanding Eligible Market	About Competition	About The Broader Industry	Where Things Are Headed	Updates On Theme	Broader Themes Emerging	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Hiring
About Expanding Eligible MarketDuolingo aims to expand its eligible market by focusing on new subjects like math, music, and chess, with a medium-term goal of reaching 100 million daily active users (DAUs) by 2028. The company believes there's a huge market potential for math, with about 1 billion people learning math globally, and expects Duolingo Math to be the best tutor app for math this year. Chess has already achieved 7 million DAUs less than a year after launch, becoming the second-largest chess platform. Duolingo also sees significant room for growth in existing markets, noting that U.S. penetration is only 2% of internet users, and even reaching this level in all countries would more than double current DAUs.	About CompetitionDuolingo is not currently concerned about competition, stating it holds about 85% of the daily active users among language learning apps globally, a share that has remained flat. The company dismisses concerns about AI translation tools or all-purpose chatbots, as users primarily use Duolingo for hobby learning or to genuinely learn English, and churn surveys do not indicate these as reasons for leaving. Duolingo also believes it's difficult for new competitors to emerge and scale due to its strong free product, huge distribution, and the complexity of replicating its sophisticated app. The company has observed hundreds of apps attempting to compete but failing to grow.	About The Broader IndustryThe accelerating advances in AI are fundamentally changing the way people learn, creating an enormous opportunity for education platforms. AI is expected to enable teaching quality comparable to a one-on-one tutor, combined with the engagement of a mobile game. The cost of AI inference has significantly decreased over the last couple of years, making advanced AI features more accessible. Additionally, social media algorithms, such as those on TikTok, have changed, making consistent virality harder to achieve for marketing efforts.	Where Things Are HeadedDuolingo is undergoing a strategic shift in 2026 to prioritize user growth over short-term bookings and profitability, aiming to reaccelerate DAU growth after deceleration in 2025. The plan for 2026 focuses on teaching languages better, improving the free user experience, and investing in new growth engines like math, music, and chess. The company expects slower bookings growth (10-12%) and lower adjusted EBITDA margins (around 25%) for 2026, with R&D and sales and marketing spend outpacing revenue growth. Duolingo plans to experiment with monetization strategies that add value rather than friction, including direct ad sales and in-app purchases for avatars. The company will also scale advanced content for its top 9 languages to Duolingo score 129 and introduce 'speaking adventures' mid-year.	Updates On Theme**Data	Broader Themes EmergingThe transcript highlights the broader theme of AI-driven transformation in education, where AI is expected to fundamentally change learning methods and significantly improve teaching quality, making it comparable to one-on-one tutoring while being as engaging as a mobile game. Another emerging theme is the shift in monetization strategies for freemium models, moving away from friction-based approaches towards value-added features and alternative revenue streams like direct ad sales and in-app purchases, as AI reduces the cost of delivering premium experiences.	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)2025 was another strong year for Duolingo. For the first time, we surpassed 50 million daily active users, and that's more than 5x as many as we had when we IPO-ed in 2021. We also delivered over 1 billion in bookings and more than $300 million in adjusted EBITDA. I'm more convinced than ever that the accelerating advances in AI will fundamentally change the way people learn. This creates an enormous opportunity for us. We are the most popular education app in the world by a margin, and we intend to lead this shift. Our medium-term goal is to reach 100 million daily active users in 2028. The size and scale of the market opportunity ahead is massive. I believe that this year, we're going to have the best tutor app for math. chess has grown quite a bit... we have about 7 million daily active users in chess and this is less than a year after we launched. we have about 85% of the daily active users of language learning apps in the world. this business can have tremendous scale even at the size we're at today, and we think we can be a lot bigger.	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)DAU growth over the past several years has been nothing short of phenomenal, it decelerated throughout 2025, and as the new year began, we continued seeing this trend. We now expect DAU growth to be about 20% year-over-year throughout 2026. in the short term, the short-term implication is that this year, we'll see slower bookings growth and lower profitability as captured in our guide. we are investing in 2026. As a result, we expect that R&D and sales and marketing spend growth will outpace revenue growth. adjusted EBITDA margin to decline roughly 3 points sequentially in Q2. compared to a year ago, it's not quite the same. we got ourselves into an interesting situation where both Duolingo is undermonetized and overmonetized at the same time. we have not yet seen an acceleration in DAUs that we think is like, 'Oh my god, we're done.'	HiringGilian Munson has been welcomed as the new CFO, replacing Matt Skaruppa. The company does not anticipate needing to double its workforce or marketing spend to achieve its growth goals, suggesting a focus on scaling efficiently.

2026-02-26

About Expanding Eligible Market	About Competition	About The Broader Industry	Where Things Are Headed	Updates On Theme	Broader Themes Emerging	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)	Hiring
About Expanding Eligible MarketDuolingo aims to expand its eligible market by focusing on new subjects like math, music, and chess, with a medium-term goal of reaching 100 million daily active users (DAUs) by 2028. The company believes there's a huge market potential for math, with about 1 billion people learning math globally, and expects Duolingo Math to be the best tutor app for math this year. Chess has already achieved 7 million DAUs less than a year after launch, becoming the second-largest chess platform. Duolingo also sees significant room for growth in existing markets, noting that U.S. penetration is only 2% of internet users, and even reaching this level in all countries would more than double current DAUs.	About CompetitionDuolingo is not currently concerned about competition, stating it holds about 85% of the daily active users among language learning apps globally, a share that has remained flat. The company dismisses concerns about AI translation tools or all-purpose chatbots, as users primarily use Duolingo for hobby learning or to genuinely learn English, and churn surveys do not indicate these as reasons for leaving. Duolingo also believes it's difficult for new competitors to emerge and scale due to its strong free product, huge distribution, and the complexity of replicating its sophisticated app. The company has observed hundreds of apps attempting to compete but failing to grow.	About The Broader IndustryThe accelerating advances in AI are fundamentally changing the way people learn, creating an enormous opportunity for education platforms. AI is expected to enable teaching quality comparable to a one-on-one tutor, combined with the engagement of a mobile game. The cost of AI inference has significantly decreased over the last couple of years, making advanced AI features more accessible. Additionally, social media algorithms, such as those on TikTok, have changed, making consistent virality harder to achieve for marketing efforts.	Where Things Are HeadedDuolingo is undergoing a strategic shift in 2026 to prioritize user growth over short-term bookings and profitability, aiming to reaccelerate DAU growth after deceleration in 2025. The plan for 2026 focuses on teaching languages better, improving the free user experience, and investing in new growth engines like math, music, and chess. The company expects slower bookings growth (10-12%) and lower adjusted EBITDA margins (around 25%) for 2026, with R&D and sales and marketing spend outpacing revenue growth. Duolingo plans to experiment with monetization strategies that add value rather than friction, including direct ad sales and in-app purchases for avatars. The company will also scale advanced content for its top 9 languages to Duolingo score 129 and introduce 'speaking adventures' mid-year.	Updates On Theme**Data	Broader Themes EmergingThe transcript highlights the broader theme of AI-driven transformation in education, where AI is expected to fundamentally change learning methods and significantly improve teaching quality, making it comparable to one-on-one tutoring while being as engaging as a mobile game. Another emerging theme is the shift in monetization strategies for freemium models, moving away from friction-based approaches towards value-added features and alternative revenue streams like direct ad sales and in-app purchases, as AI reduces the cost of delivering premium experiences.	Bullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)2025 was another strong year for Duolingo. For the first time, we surpassed 50 million daily active users, and that's more than 5x as many as we had when we IPO-ed in 2021. We also delivered over 1 billion in bookings and more than $300 million in adjusted EBITDA. I'm more convinced than ever that the accelerating advances in AI will fundamentally change the way people learn. This creates an enormous opportunity for us. We are the most popular education app in the world by a margin, and we intend to lead this shift. Our medium-term goal is to reach 100 million daily active users in 2028. The size and scale of the market opportunity ahead is massive. I believe that this year, we're going to have the best tutor app for math. chess has grown quite a bit... we have about 7 million daily active users in chess and this is less than a year after we launched. we have about 85% of the daily active users of language learning apps in the world. this business can have tremendous scale even at the size we're at today, and we think we can be a lot bigger.	Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)DAU growth over the past several years has been nothing short of phenomenal, it decelerated throughout 2025, and as the new year began, we continued seeing this trend. We now expect DAU growth to be about 20% year-over-year throughout 2026. in the short term, the short-term implication is that this year, we'll see slower bookings growth and lower profitability as captured in our guide. we are investing in 2026. As a result, we expect that R&D and sales and marketing spend growth will outpace revenue growth. adjusted EBITDA margin to decline roughly 3 points sequentially in Q2. compared to a year ago, it's not quite the same. we got ourselves into an interesting situation where both Duolingo is undermonetized and overmonetized at the same time. we have not yet seen an acceleration in DAUs that we think is like, 'Oh my god, we're done.'	HiringGilian Munson has been welcomed as the new CFO, replacing Matt Skaruppa. The company does not anticipate needing to double its workforce or marketing spend to achieve its growth goals, suggesting a focus on scaling efficiently.

Notes3 rows

Date	Comment	Comment Type	Comment Sentiment	Link	Price Reaction
2025-08-06	Beat on users and revenue; raised FY25 guide. Energy mechanic, Super strength offset slower Max and DET. Shares jumped post-print, then faded as US DAU concerns, social-media reset, and uncertain Max China timing tempered enthusiasm. Duocon on 9/16.	Earnings Transcript	Mixed		+8.82% (vs SPY: +7.35%)
2026-02-26	Duolingo reported strong Q4 2025 results but announced a strategic pivot prioritizing user growth and free AI features over near-term monetization, targeting 100M DAU by 2028. This led to weaker 2026 guidance for bookings (10-12% growth) and adjusted EBITDA margins (~25%). The market reacted sharply negative, with shares plunging 14-24% over two days, as investors and analysts expressed concern over the trade-off between engagement and immediate profitability. A $400M buyback was also authorized.	Other	Neutral	https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGWPrhEIzup0HaCNHDlStxMUrzMilPAgUOTZ6r7S-BgqbYHd_QTtSBaijMGTj5GqBbYr_oN2YQwMx7v9svvHwJciw9rzE2nLxQMvlCe_OwqZR_tpYFHNRHgod1juaIgX1XHr3eggOGA2-EWZI4FOZPoNGU9Ru_p69_2zH32u0xzT0NiKUaPFTahXdwwjQQYdqocqmWdf3bn99aQXOxC66oDdlPYis57pOlkKBdg6p6pd1HvJW31zVCeGtqYaa6uzgQNTiU	Deferred (realtime snapshot stale)
2026-08-05	Duolingo reported strong Q2 DAU acceleration (23% YoY) and record user retention, raising its adjusted EBITDA outlook to 26.5% due to AI cost savings. Despite this, the stock underperformed SPY by -3.69% (t+2 days), indicating market concern over maintained bookings guidance (prioritizing user growth over immediate monetization) and ongoing monetization strategy uncertainties like the Max tier's future and the new Super Lite tier.	Earnings Transcript	Neutral		-3.27% (vs SPY: -3.69%)

Upcoming Events4 rows

Catalyst ID	Estimated Timing	Estimated Date Start	Estimated Date End	Catalyst	Why It Matters	Ticker Or Theme Specific	Transcript Date	Source Type
DUOL_41a0f741	over the next few months	2026-09-05	2026-11-05	Completion of the rollout of AI-powered video call functionality to all existing Super subscribers.	Expanding this key AI-driven feature to a broader paying user base is expected to enhance the value proposition of Super Duolingo, potentially improving subscriber retention and engagement.	Ticker	2026-08-05	earnings_transcript
DUOL_a0e8f2ca	over the next few months	2026-09-05	2026-11-05	Continued experimentation and potential wider rollout of the 'Super Lite' ad-supported subscription tier.	This new, lower-priced tier aims to attract users who might not otherwise subscribe to Super, potentially expanding the paying user base and diversifying monetization.	Ticker	2026-08-05	earnings_transcript
DUOL_b98c1b6b	Q4 DAU growth is 25% or higher	2026-10-01	2026-12-31	Achievement of 25% or higher Daily Active User (DAU) growth year-over-year in Q4 2026, triggering a bonus payout to employees in Q1 2027.	This milestone reflects management's internal target for user growth, which is the company's primary strategic focus, and could signal strong product momentum and future business expansion.	Ticker	2026-08-05	earnings_transcript
DUOL_b8221c4f	late in the year (2026) for modest returns, more and more as we move into '27 and '28 for significant acceleration	2026-10-01	2027-12-31	Reacceleration of Daily Active User (DAU) growth beyond the 20% year-over-year guided for 2026, driven by product improvements in language teaching, free user experience, and new subjects.	Successful reacceleration is crucial for achieving the medium-term goal of 100 million DAUs by 2028, leading to significantly higher bookings and profit. Failure to reaccelerate could negatively impact long-term valuation and investor sentiment.	Ticker	2026-02-26	earnings_transcript

Prior Earnings Metrics HistoryTable

Prior earnings scorecards

Key Inputs And Sourcing

1. AI Compute/Models

2. Cloud Hosting/Infrastructure

3. Labor (Software Development, AI/ML Engineers, Content Creators)

4. Performance Marketing & Influencer Partnerships

5. Payment Processing Fees

Industry Publications

Economic Data Watch

1. FRED — University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Index

2. FRED — Disposable Personal Income

3. FRED — Retail and Food Services Sales

4. Trading Economics — China Retail Sales

5. Trading Economics — China Consumer Confidence

Free Alt Data Watch

1. Apple App Store / Google Play Store — App Rankings

2. Google Trends — Web Search Interest

3. Duolingo Careers Page — Job Postings

4. SEC EDGAR — Company Filings

5. Reddit — Subreddit Activity

Paid Alt Data Watch

1. Similarweb — Web & App Traffic / Engagement

2. Sensor Tower — App Intelligence

3. Consumer Edge — Transaction Data

4. SpendHound — Enterprise IT Spend Analysis

5. Apptopia — App Usage & Performance

Search Keywords Brand Product

Search Keywords Event Phrases

Search Keywords Policy Regulatory

3 Main Long-Term Bull Details

3 Main Long-Term Bear Details

Thesis

Bull case

Bear case

1. YipitData — Consumer Transaction Data

1. Apptio / IT Financial Management platforms — Enterprise IT Spend Analysis

1. Apptopia — App Intelligence

1. Google Trends — Web Search Interest

2. App Store / Google Play Store — App Rankings

1. Sensor Tower — App Intelligence

1. Google Trends — Web Search Interest

1. QuestMobile — China Mobile App Data

Upcoming print · 2026-11-03

Last reported · 2026-05-04