CSTL

T13.0% portfolioRussell 2000

Castle Biosciences, Inc.

Next est. report · AMC

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Overview

Castle Biosciences, Inc. is a diagnostics firm offering tests for dermatological cancers like melanoma (DecisionDx-Melanoma), gastrointestinal conditions (Tissu

Castle Biosciences, Inc. is a diagnostics firm offering tests for dermatological cancers like melanoma (DecisionDx-Melanoma), gastrointestinal conditions (TissueCypher), and atopic dermatitis (AdvanceAD-Tx). These tests aid risk assessment and treatment selection. Selling to healthcare providers, the company reported strong Q2 2026 results, raising full-year revenue guidance to $365-$375 million and expecting positive adjusted EBITDA for 2026.

Key Inputs And Sourcing

1. Lab Supplies

Not in registry

component · North America · 30-50%

Source Explicitly mentioned as a primary driver of increased cost of sales. Includes reagents, consumables, and kits essential for molecular diagnostic tests.

Confidence: medium

2. Personnel Costs (Lab)

Not in registry

labor · North America · 20-40%

Source Explicitly mentioned as a primary driver of increased cost of sales, referring to the labor involved in performing diagnostic tests.

Confidence: medium

3. Lab Services Costs

Not in registry

other · North America · 10-20%

Source Explicitly mentioned as a primary driver of increased cost of sales, likely referring to outsourced specialized laboratory work or services.

Confidence: medium

Industry Publications

  • GenomeWeb (genomeweb.com) — In-depth reporting on next-generation sequencing, molecular diagnostics assays, biomarker discovery, and laboratory business news, directly relevant to Castle Biosciences' GEP tests and pipeline.
  • CAP TODAY (captodayonline.com) — Covers pathology laboratory trends, test adoption, clinical instrumentation, and College of American Pathologists regulations, all critical for a clinical diagnostics firm like Castle Biosciences.
  • Clinical Laboratory News (aacc.org/cln) — Provides news and analysis on clinical laboratory management, technology, and regulatory issues, directly impacting Castle Biosciences' operations and market access.
  • Nature Biotechnology (nature.com/nbt) — Offers high-impact research and news in biotechnology, including diagnostics and genomics, which aligns with Castle Biosciences' advanced molecular diagnostic offerings.
  • Fierce Biotech (fiercebiotech.com) — Delivers breaking news and analysis on the biotech industry, including diagnostics, funding, and M&A activities, relevant to Castle Biosciences' strategic growth and financial performance.

Economic Data Watch

1. FRED — National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA)

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Overall healthcare spending indicates the market size and health for diagnostic services, directly impacting the addressable market for Castle Biosciences' tests.

Signal to watch Increasing total health expenditures

Confidence: low

2. FRED — Physician Office Visits

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Reflects patient encounters with physicians, which directly correlates with the potential volume of diagnostic tests ordered by Castle Biosciences' customers.

Signal to watch Increasing physician office visits

Confidence: low

3. FRED — Civilian Unemployment Rate

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field UNRATE

Cadence monthly

Why it matters The unemployment rate impacts the number of insured individuals and their access to healthcare services, influencing demand for diagnostic tests.

Signal to watch Decreasing unemployment rate

Confidence: high

4. FRED — Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Medical Care Services

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field CPIMEDSL

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Indicates inflation in medical care services, which can influence reimbursement rates for diagnostic tests and the company's cost structure.

Signal to watch Stable or moderately increasing medical care services inflation

Confidence: high

5. FRED — Federal Funds Rate

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field FEDFUNDS

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Affects the company's cost of capital and broader economic conditions that can impact healthcare spending and investment.

Signal to watch Stable or decreasing interest rates

Confidence: high

Free Alt Data Watch

1. ClinicalTrials.gov — Study Records

Not in registry

Metric/field Study Status, Enrollment Count

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Tracking the progress and enrollment of clinical trials (e.g., DETECT-AD) provides insights into pipeline development and future evidence generation for new tests.

Signal to watch Advancing study status (e.g., 'Recruiting' to 'Active, not recruiting' or 'Completed'), increasing enrollment

Confidence: high

2. SEC EDGAR — Filings

Not in registry

Metric/field Form 8-K

Cadence event_driven

Why it matters Provides timely information on material events, including earnings, regulatory updates (e.g., FDA, CMS), and strategic developments that impact the company.

Signal to watch Positive announcements regarding regulatory approvals, reimbursement, or clinical milestones

Confidence: high

3. Google Trends — Search Interest

Not in registry

Metric/field Search term volume for 'TissueCypher', 'AdvanceAD-Tx'

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Indicates public and physician interest and awareness in key diagnostic technologies, signaling potential market adoption and awareness for Castle Biosciences' products.

Signal to watch Increasing search interest for key product names

Confidence: medium

4. CMS.gov — Medicare Coverage Database (MCD)

Not in registry

Metric/field Local Coverage Determination (LCD) status for DecisionDx-SCC

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Reinstatement of Medicare coverage for DecisionDx-SCC is a significant catalyst, impacting reimbursement and market access for this test.

Signal to watch Publication of a favorable draft or final LCD

Confidence: high

5. FDA.gov — Device Approvals and Clearances (510(k)/PMA)

Not in registry

Metric/field Clearance/Approval status for breakthrough devices

Cadence irregular

Why it matters FDA clearance/approval for breakthrough devices (e.g., related to melanoma or other pipeline products) provides critical regulatory validation and enables broader commercialization.

Signal to watch Publication of new 510(k) clearances or PMA approvals related to Castle Biosciences' products

Confidence: high

Paid Alt Data Watch

1. IQVIA / Symphony Health — Medical Claims Data

Matchediqvia_medical_claims · access=file · map_only

Metric/field CPT code utilization for molecular diagnostic tests (e.g., specific codes for DecisionDx-Melanoma, TissueCypher, AdvanceAD-Tx)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Provides granular, independent data on actual test utilization, market share, and reimbursement trends for Castle Biosciences' products across all payers.

Signal to watch Increasing utilization and stable/improving reimbursement rates for key CPT codes

Confidence: high

2. Definitive Healthcare — Healthcare Claims / Rx Data

Matched (medium)definitive_healthcare_physician_provider_data · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Physician ordering patterns for molecular diagnostic tests by specialty (Dermatology, Gastroenterology)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Offers insights into physician adoption rates, identifying new prescribers and repeat ordering behavior, which is crucial for understanding market penetration.

Signal to watch Increasing number of ordering physicians and higher repeat order rates

Confidence: high

3. Truveta — EHR Data

Matched (medium)truveta_ehr_clinical_records · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Patient diagnoses (melanoma, Barrett's esophagus, atopic dermatitis) and subsequent molecular test ordering

Cadence daily

Why it matters Provides real-world evidence of test adoption within clinical workflows and patient outcomes, supporting market expansion and clinical utility claims.

Signal to watch Increasing proportion of diagnosed patients receiving Castle Biosciences' tests and positive patient outcomes

Confidence: medium

4. GlobalData Healthcare — Market Research Reports

Matchedglobaldata_healthcare_healthcare_forecasts_market_sizing · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Market size and growth forecasts for dermatological and gastroenterological diagnostics

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Offers independent assessments of the total addressable market and competitive landscape, helping to contextualize Castle Biosciences' growth trajectory.

Signal to watch Upward revisions to market size and growth forecasts

Confidence: high

5. Neudata — Alternative Data Marketplace

Matched (medium)neudata_alternative_data_vendor_discovery_metadata · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Hiring trends for 'sales representative' and 'medical science liaison' in dermatology and gastroenterology

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Indicates investment in commercial expansion and market penetration efforts by Castle Biosciences and its competitors, signaling future growth intentions.

Signal to watch Increasing hiring activity for sales and medical roles by Castle Biosciences

Confidence: medium

Search Keywords Brand Product

  • DecisionDx-Melanoma
  • TissueCypher test
  • AdvanceAD-Tx test
  • DecisionDx-SCC
  • DecisionDx-UM
  • MyPath Melanoma
  • Esopredict
  • Previse GI pipeline
  • dermatological cancer diagnostics
  • gastroenterology diagnostics
  • atopic dermatitis treatment selection
  • gene expression profiling
  • molecular diagnostics
  • precision medicine
  • risk stratification
  • sentinel lymph node biopsy

Search Keywords Event Phrases

  • Castle Biosciences earnings
  • AdvanceAD-Tx crosswalk vote
  • DecisionDx-SCC LCD

Search Keywords Policy Regulatory

  • CLFS rate schedules
  • Medicare coverage
  • MolDx local coverage determination
  • NCCN guidelines
What They Do (Plain English & Analogies)
Castle Biosciences acts like a specialized detective agency for certain skin and gut conditions. Instead of looking for clues at a crime scene, they analyze a patient's genes to figure out how aggressive a disease might be or which treatment would work best. For example, if someone has skin cancer (melanoma), they can run a test on the tumor to predict if it's likely to spread, helping doctors decide if more intense monitoring or treatment is needed. They also have tests for a gut condition called Barrett's esophagus, using an AI-driven spatialomics approach, to assess the risk of it progressing to cancer, and a new non-invasive test for a severe skin condition (atopic dermatitis) to help doctors pick the right medication by revealing the underlying immune biology. They provide these advanced genetic tests to doctors to help them make more personalized and informed decisions for their patients.
Very Brief History
Castle Biosciences, Inc. was founded in September 2007 and is headquartered in Friendswood, Texas. The company initially built its growth around melanoma decision-support testing with its flagship product DecisionDx-Melanoma. It expanded into gastroenterology with the 2021 acquisition of Cernostics assets and into mental-health pharmacogenomics with the 2022 acquisition of AltheaDx. The company went public in 2019.
"Street Stereotype"
Castle Biosciences is generally perceived by investors and analysts as an "exceptional mid-cap momentum" company within the Diagnostics & Early Detection sector. The market views it as a growth story, particularly driven by the high-volume utilization of its TissueCypher test and solid margin improvements. There's an expectation of continued expansion beyond its core dermatological cancer diagnostics into new areas like gastroenterology and inflammatory skin conditions.
Subsidiaries On Linked In*
  • Castle Biosciences, Inc. — Main company page; 'Castle Laboratories' is a functional division/facility, not a separate LinkedIn entity.; LinkedIn: castle-biosciences
Customer Sectors & Example Clients
Castle Biosciences' customers are primarily in the healthcare sector, specifically medical professionals and institutions involved in dermatology, ophthalmology, and gastroenterology. Example clients would include dermatologists, surgical oncologists (for melanoma and SCC), gastroenterologists, pathologists, and hospitals and clinics that treat patients with skin cancers, uveal melanoma, Barrett's esophagus, and atopic dermatitis.
New Customers / Segments They'Re Targeting
The company is actively targeting patients aged 12 and up with moderate to severe atopic dermatitis with its AdvanceAD-Tx test, aiming to guide systemic treatment selection. They are also exploring new opportunities within gastroenterology with their Previse GI pipeline, including a cell collection device (sponge-in-capsule) for earlier detection and management of Barrett's esophagus. Additionally, the DETECT-AD study with SciBase aims to help atopic dermatitis patients predict and manage flares, potentially allowing for less intensive topical therapies or optimized tapering of rescue medications.
Sales Geographies And Expansion Plans
Castle Biosciences primarily sells its products in the United States. The company's headquarters are in Friendswood, Texas, and it operates laboratory facilities in Phoenix, Arizona, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The recent recognition of AdvanceAD-Tx and its crosswalk rate will help set conversations with commercial payers, supporting a full launch in the future within the U.S. market. There is no explicit mention in the provided information about plans to expand sales into new international geographies.
How Key Themes May Help/Hurt
Castle Biosciences' business model is strongly aligned with the 'MedTech Long '26: Diagnostics & Early Detection' theme. The company benefits from accelerating breakthroughs in multiomics, liquid biopsy, and AI computational pathology, which enhance the sensitivity and clinical utility of its assays, expanding their use from therapy selection to early-stage recurrence tracking and population screening. [cite: Theme_BullBearDetails] The demographic aging and rising incidence of chronic diseases create a non-cyclical demand for its non-invasive, proactive screening and diagnostic tests. [cite: Theme_BullBearDetails] Expanding regulatory and policy frameworks, such as the favorable crosswalk rate for AdvanceAD-Tx, are reducing commercial friction and institutionalizing reimbursement for next-generation assays. [cite: 0, Theme_BullBearDetails] However, the company may be hurt by persistent reimbursement friction, delayed coverage determinations (like for DecisionDx-SCC), and potential CLFS rate adjustments, which can compress testing margins and delay revenue capture. [cite: 0, Theme_BullBearDetails] The rigorous evidentiary hurdles and lengthy trial mandates for new diagnostics demand substantial R&D and commercial investment, extending cash-flow break-even horizons. [cite: Theme_BullBearDetails] Additionally, escalating competitive crowding across liquid biopsy and clinical oncology channels could drive up sales acquisition costs and risk pricing erosion. [cite: Theme_BullBearDetails]

3 Main Long-Term Bull Details

  1. Castle Biosciences delivered exceptional Q2 2026 financial results, with total revenue growing 20% year-over-year to $103.5 million, and core revenue drivers (excluding DecisionDx-SCC and IDgenetix) surging 40%. This strong performance, particularly TissueCypher's 63% volume growth, led to a raised 2026 revenue guidance of $365 million to $375 million, signaling robust market penetration and execution.
  2. The AdvanceAD-Tx test for atopic dermatitis is gaining significant traction, with over 1,000 orders in Q2 2026 and recognition via the Genomics Innovation Award. A new clinical utility study demonstrated 97.8% of patients initiated molecularly concordant systemic therapy post-testing. The unanimous panel vote for a $3,675 crosswalk rate provides a strong reimbursement benchmark, positioning AdvanceAD-Tx as a key midterm growth driver.
  3. Castle Biosciences demonstrates a clear path to profitability, expecting positive adjusted EBITDA for Q3, Q4, and the full year 2026, as well as for 2027. This financial discipline, coupled with a robust balance sheet of $266.8 million in cash and marketable securities, provides significant flexibility to fund ongoing growth initiatives and strategic pipeline advancements.

3 Main Long-Term Bear Details

  1. Despite a favorable crosswalk rate for AdvanceAD-Tx, final reimbursement clarity from commercial payers is contingent on the preliminary draft 2026 CLFS rate schedules in late September. Furthermore, regaining Medicare coverage for DecisionDx-SCC is still projected to be approximately a year after a positive draft LCD, which itself is only anticipated in the second half of 2026.
  2. The company continues to experience adjusted gross margin compression, with Q2 2026 adjusted gross margin at 76.3% compared to 79.5% in Q2 2025. This decline is primarily driven by increased costs for lab supplies, personnel, and lab services, reflecting investments in capacity and higher test volumes.
  3. DecisionDx-Melanoma experienced moderate sequential volume growth in Q2 2026, below typical seasonality, partly due to the commercial team adapting to support three products. Additionally, management acknowledges that TissueCypher will increasingly face "headwinds of big numbers," implying that converting remaining physicians will require more effort and potentially higher sales and marketing efficiency to maintain current growth rates.
Competitors And Differentiation
Castle Biosciences operates in a competitive diagnostics industry. Key competitors in the broader testing assay market include Labcorp (LH), Myriad Genetics (MYGN), Veracyte (VCYT), Guardant Health (GH), Biocept (BIOCQ), Natera (NTRA), and Exact Sciences. Castle Biosciences differentiates itself through its specialized, proprietary gene expression profile (GEP) tests that provide objective, molecular-based insights to guide patient care in clinically uncertain situations. For example, DecisionDx-Melanoma helps assess the probability of metastasis in melanoma patients, outperforming traditional nomograms. TissueCypher uses an AI-driven spatialomics approach to predict progression risk in Barrett's esophagus, often preceding dysplasia detection by standard pathology. AdvanceAD-Tx offers a non-invasive molecular profiling approach to personalize systemic treatment selection for atopic dermatitis, addressing a current lack of objective guidance.
Recent Performance & What The Market'S Focused On
Castle Biosciences reported strong Q2 2026 results, with revenue of $103.5 million, representing 20% growth compared to the second quarter of 2025. Core revenue drivers (excluding DecisionDx-SCC and IDgenetix) surged 40%, and total test report volume for core drivers grew 32%. The company raised its 2026 total revenue guidance to $365 million to $375 million and expects to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA for Q3, Q4, and the full year 2026, as well as for 2027. The market is focused on the publication of the preliminary draft 2026 CLFS rate schedules in late September 2026 for AdvanceAD-Tx, which will provide reimbursement clarity and enable a full commercial launch. Investors are also tracking the sustainability of TissueCypher's high growth (projected 50-52% for full year 2026) and the potential for a favorable draft Local Coverage Determination (LCD) for DecisionDx-SCC in the second half of 2026, which could lead to regaining Medicare coverage approximately a year later.
Revenue Segments And Estimated Mix
  • DecisionDx-Melanoma — Mix: Significant, core revenue driver; Source: Q2 2026 transcript, 10,280 test reports in Q2 2026; Trend: 3% growth compared to Q2 2025; mid- to high single-digit volume growth expected for full year 2026
  • TissueCypher — Mix: Significant, core revenue driver; Source: Q2 2026 transcript, 14,988 test reports in Q2 2026; Trend: 63% growth compared to Q2 2025; 50% to 52% volume growth expected for full year 2026
  • AdvanceAD-Tx — Mix: Emerging, midterm revenue driver; Source: Q2 2026 transcript, more than 1,000 orders in Q2 2026; Trend: Expected to be a midterm revenue driver for 2027 and 2028, with reimbursement clarity anticipated following CLFS rate schedules
  • DecisionDx-SCC — Mix: Smaller, excluded from core growth; Source: Q2 2026 transcript, excluded from core revenue growth calculation; Trend: Volume pickup in Q2 2026 due to existing clinical value and some promotional time; awaiting draft LCD in H2 2026
  • IDgenetix — Mix: Smaller, excluded from core growth; Source: Q2 2026 transcript, excluded from core revenue growth calculation for both 2026 and 2025; Trend: Excluded from core revenue growth calculation for both 2026 and 2025
Product Brands
  • DecisionDx-Melanoma
  • DecisionDx-UM
  • DecisionDx-SCC
  • DecisionDx DiffDx-Melanoma
  • myPath Melanoma
  • TissueCypher
  • AdvanceAD-Tx
  • IDgenetix
  • DecisionDx-CMSeq
  • i31-SLNB
  • i31-ROR
  • Esopredict
  • DecisionDx-PRAME
  • DecisionDx-UMSeq
  • Previse GI
Bull / Bear Details

Castle Biosciences, a commercial-stage diagnostics firm, continues to exhibit strong execution and accelerating growth in its core DecisionDx-Melanoma and Tissu

Thesis

Castle Biosciences, a commercial-stage diagnostics firm, continues to exhibit strong execution and accelerating growth in its core DecisionDx-Melanoma and TissueCypher franchises, leading to a significantly raised 2026 revenue outlook and anticipated positive adjusted EBITDA. Its AdvanceAD-Tx for atopic dermatitis shows promising early adoption and a strong preliminary reimbursement signal. While navigating ongoing reimbursement complexities for SCC and potential headwinds from preliminary 2027 CLFS rates, robust clinical evidence and pipeline expansion underpin its compelling long-term growth trajectory. (Updated: 2026-10-23)

Bull case

  • Castle Biosciences delivered exceptional Q2 2026 financial results, with total revenue growing 20% year-over-year to $103.5 million, and core revenue drivers (excluding DecisionDx-SCC and IDgenetix) surging 40%. This strong performance, particularly TissueCypher's 63% volume growth, led to a raised 2026 revenue guidance of $365 million to $375 million, signaling robust market penetration and execution.

  • The AdvanceAD-Tx test for atopic dermatitis is gaining significant traction, with over 1,000 orders in Q2 2026 and recognition via the Genomics Innovation Award. A new clinical utility study demonstrated 97.8% of patients initiated molecularly concordant systemic therapy post-testing. The unanimous panel vote for a $3,675 crosswalk rate provides a strong preliminary reimbursement benchmark, positioning AdvanceAD-Tx as a key midterm growth driver.

  • Castle Biosciences demonstrates a clear path to profitability, expecting positive adjusted EBITDA for Q3, Q4, and the full year 2026, as well as for 2027. This financial discipline, coupled with a robust balance sheet of $266.8 million in cash and marketable securities, provides significant flexibility to fund ongoing growth initiatives and strategic pipeline advancements.

Bear case

  • Despite a favorable preliminary crosswalk rate for AdvanceAD-Tx, the recently released preliminary 2027 CLFS rates show significant downward pressure on molecular pathology and genomic sequencing, with potential reductions of 22% and 23% respectively, which could impact the final reimbursement for AdvanceAD-Tx. Furthermore, regaining Medicare coverage for DecisionDx-SCC is still projected to be approximately a year after a positive draft LCD, which itself is only anticipated in the second half of 2026.

  • The company continues to experience adjusted gross margin compression, with Q2 2026 adjusted gross margin at 76.3% compared to 79.5% in Q2 2025. This decline is primarily driven by increased costs for lab supplies, personnel, and lab services, reflecting investments in capacity and higher test volumes, which could impact overall profitability and future investment capacity.

  • DecisionDx-Melanoma experienced moderate sequential volume growth in Q2 2026, below typical seasonality, partly due to the commercial team adapting to support three products. Additionally, management acknowledges that TissueCypher will increasingly face "headwinds of big numbers," implying that converting remaining physicians will require more effort and potentially higher sales and marketing efficiency to maintain current high growth rates.

Bull / Bear Case
Bear Case
Despite a favorable preliminary crosswalk rate for AdvanceAD-Tx, potential reductions of 22-23% in preliminary 2027 CLFS rates for molecular pathology could impact final reimbursement. Regaining Medicare coverage for DecisionDx-SCC is projected approximately a year after a positive draft LCD, which is only anticipated in the second half of 2026. The company continues to experience adjusted gross margin compression, with Q2 2026 adjusted gross margin at 76.3% compared to 79.5% in Q2 2025, driven by increased costs. DecisionDx-Melanoma experienced moderate sequential volume growth below typical seasonality, and management acknowledges TissueCypher will increasingly face "headwinds of big numbers" requiring more effort to maintain high growth rates.
Bull Case
Castle Biosciences delivered exceptional Q2 2026 financial results, with total revenue growing 20% year-over-year to $103.5 million, and core revenue drivers surging 40%. This strong performance, particularly TissueCypher's 63% volume growth, led to a raised 2026 revenue guidance of $365 million to $375 million. The AdvanceAD-Tx test for atopic dermatitis is gaining significant traction, with over 1,000 orders in Q2 2026, strong clinical utility study results, and a favorable preliminary $3,675 crosswalk reimbursement rate. The company demonstrates a clear path to profitability, expecting positive adjusted EBITDA for Q3, Q4, and the full year 2026, as well as for 2027, supported by a robust balance sheet of $266.8 million in cash and marketable securities.
More Compelling & Why
Bear. The company's negative P/E ratio of -52.84 and negative EV/EBITDA of -293.85 indicate a valuation that heavily discounts future profitability, which is not yet consistently realized on a GAAP basis. Despite strong revenue growth, persistent GAAP losses, declining adjusted gross margins, and potential reimbursement headwinds for new and existing tests suggest the path to sustainable, profitable growth is fraught with significant execution and market risks, making the current valuation appear aggressive. My view would flip to Bull if the company demonstrates consistent GAAP profitability, a clear trend of expanding adjusted gross margins, and successfully navigates reimbursement challenges to secure favorable and stable rates for its key growth drivers, thereby justifying a higher valuation based on proven earnings power.
Key Factors5 rows
Key FactorWhy It MattersWhat To WatchWhat It SignalsWhere/How To TrackFree Alt DataPaid Alt Data
Achievement of Positive Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 and Q4 2026Achieving positive adjusted EBITDA demonstrates financial discipline and a clear path to profitability, enhancing investor confidence in the company's long-term financial health.Reported Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 and Q4 2026, and the full year 2026. Management expects positive adjusted EBITDA for these periods.Reported positive Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 = bullish; Failure to achieve positive Adjusted EBITDA in these periods = bearish.Company earnings releases and conference calls. The next update would typically be during the Q3 2026 earnings call (expected late October/early November 2026).

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DecisionDx-SCC Draft Local Coverage Determination (LCD) Publication by MolDx or NovitasReinstatement of Medicare coverage for DecisionDx-SCC would significantly improve market access and reimbursement for this test, contributing to future revenue growth.Publication of a draft LCD by MolDx or Novitas in the second half of 2026, specifically examining the coverage criteria and patient population included.Publication of a favorable draft LCD with broad coverage criteria in H2 2026 = bullish; Significant delays beyond H2 2026 or restrictive coverage criteria = bearish.MolDx or Novitas websites for LCD updates. Company press releases or SEC filings. Expected in the second half of 2026.

1. Google Trends — Search Interest

Not in registry

Metric/field Search term volume for 'DecisionDx-SCC LCD' OR 'MolDx coverage DecisionDx-SCC'

Cadence Weekly

Why it matters Indicates public and industry interest in the coverage decision.

Signal to watch Spikes in search volume around the expected publication date.

Confidence: Medium

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TissueCypher Test Report Volume GrowthTissueCypher is a core revenue driver and a key to Castle Biosciences' expansion into gastroenterology. Sustained high growth validates market penetration and product adoption.Quarterly TissueCypher test report volumes and year-over-year growth rates. Management projects 50% to 52% year-over-year growth for the full year 2026.Quarterly year-over-year growth rates for TissueCypher test reports consistently at or above 50% = bullish; Growth rates significantly decelerating below 50% year-over-year = bearish.Company earnings releases and conference calls. The next update would typically be during the Q3 2026 earnings call (expected late October/early November 2026).

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1. IQVIA / Symphony Health — Medical Claims Data

Matchediqvia_medical_claims · access=file · map_only

Metric/field CPT code utilization for TissueCypher

Cadence Monthly

Why it matters Provides granular, independent data on actual test utilization and market share.

Signal to watch Consistent increase in CPT code utilization.

Confidence: High

AdvanceAD-Tx Preliminary Draft 2026 CLFS Rate Schedule PublicationThe affirmed reimbursement rate is crucial for the commercial viability and broad adoption of AdvanceAD-Tx, directly impacting its future revenue contribution and market expansion.Publication of the preliminary draft 2026 Clinical Laboratory Fee Schedule (CLFS) rate schedules in late September 2026, specifically the affirmed rate for AdvanceAD-Tx.Affirmation of the $3,675 rate or higher = bullish; A significantly lower rate or unexpected delays in publication = bearish.CMS website for CLFS rate schedules. Company press releases or SEC filings following the publication. Expected in late September 2026.

1. Google Trends — Search Interest

Not in registry

Metric/field Search term volume for 'AdvanceAD-Tx reimbursement' OR 'AdvanceAD-Tx CLFS'

Cadence Weekly

Why it matters Indicates public and industry interest in the reimbursement outcome.

Signal to watch Spikes in search volume around the expected publication date.

Confidence: Medium

1. IQVIA / Symphony Health — Medical Claims Data

Matchediqvia_medical_claims · access=file · map_only

Metric/field CPT code utilization for AdvanceAD-Tx (once a specific code is established/crosswalked)

Cadence Monthly

Why it matters Tracks actual utilization and reimbursement patterns post-rate publication.

Signal to watch Increasing CPT code utilization and favorable reimbursement rates.

Confidence: High

2026 Total Revenue Guidance UpdateRevisions to revenue guidance directly reflect management's confidence in market demand and operational execution, impacting investor sentiment and valuation.Any further revisions to the 2026 total revenue guidance range. The current raised guidance is $365 million to $375 million.Upward revision above $375 million = bullish; Downward revision below $365 million = bearish.Company earnings releases and conference calls. The next update would typically be during the Q3 2026 earnings call (expected late October/early November 2026).

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1. Earnest Analytics — Diagnostic device sales data

Matched (medium)earnest_analytics_cpg_scanner_product_data · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Sales trends for Castle Biosciences' products

Cadence Monthly

Why it matters Provides an early indication of revenue performance between official reports.

Signal to watch Consistent positive sales trends aligning with or exceeding guidance.

Confidence: High

Key Reported Metrics, Reratings Triggers & Results6 rows

Adjusted EBITDA is a key profitability metric. Management's expectation of positive adjusted EBITDA for Q3, Q4, and the full year 2026, as well as for 2027, sig

Upcoming print · 2026-11-02

Key reported metricsRerating thresholds
MetricLast periodWhy it mattersWhat's needed for reratingRerating contextEarnings date
Adjusted EBITDA19.23%

Adjusted EBITDA is a key profitability metric. Management's expectation of positive adjusted EBITDA for Q3, Q4, and the full year 2026, as well as for 2027, signals financial discipline and a clear path to profitability, which is critical for investor sentiment.

Reported Adjusted EBITDA margin of 10% or higher for Q3 2026.

Achieving a strong positive Adjusted EBITDA margin demonstrates the company's clear path to profitability and financial discipline, validating management's guidance for positive EBITDA in Q3 and beyond. This signals efficient scaling and improved operational leverage, crucial for investor confidence and a higher valuation.

TissueCypher Test Report Volume Growth63%

TissueCypher is a high-growth segment and a key driver for the company's expansion into gastroenterology. Sustained strong year-over-year growth in test reports is crucial for the overall growth story and market penetration, especially with acknowledged 'headwinds of big numbers'.

Year-over-year TissueCypher test report volume growth of 55% or higher for Q3 2026.

Sustained high growth in TissueCypher volumes, exceeding the high end of the 50-52% full-year guidance, would demonstrate exceptional market penetration and overcome anticipated 'headwinds of big numbers.' This reinforces TissueCypher as a key growth engine and validates the company's expansion into gastroenterology.

Total Revenue20%

Total Revenue is a primary indicator of overall business health and market penetration. The company raised its full-year guidance, making continued strong performance crucial for investor confidence and validating its growth strategy.

Reported Total Revenue of $95 million or higher for Q3 2026, leading to an upward revision of the full-year 2026 revenue guidance above $375 million.

Beating the consensus revenue estimate of $92.41 million and raising the full-year guidance above $375 million would signal robust overall business health and strong market demand. This confirms the effectiveness of Castle Biosciences' growth strategy and enhances investor confidence in its top-line performance.

AdvanceAD-Tx Reimbursement ClarityN/A

Reimbursement clarity for AdvanceAD-Tx is a critical catalyst for this emerging product. Favorable coverage decisions and a strong rate will unlock significant commercial expansion and future revenue contributions, driving market adoption.

TissueCypher Test Reports Growth63%

TissueCypher is a high-growth segment and a key driver for the company's expansion into gastroenterology. Sustained strong year-over-year growth in test reports is crucial for the overall growth story and market penetration.

Year-over-year TissueCypher test report volume growth of 55% or higher for Q3 2026.

Sustained high growth in TissueCypher volumes, exceeding the high end of the 50-52% full-year guidance, would demonstrate exceptional market penetration and overcome anticipated 'headwinds of big numbers.' This reinforces TissueCypher as a key growth engine and validates the company's expansion into gastroenterology.

Total Revenue20%

Total Revenue is a primary indicator of overall business health and market penetration. The company raised its full-year guidance, making continued strong performance crucial for investor confidence and validating its growth strategy.

Reported Total Revenue of $95 million or higher for Q3 2026, leading to an upward revision of the full-year 2026 revenue guidance above $375 million.

Beating the consensus revenue estimate of $92.41 million and raising the full-year guidance above $375 million would signal robust overall business health and strong market demand. This confirms the effectiveness of Castle Biosciences' growth strategy and enhances investor confidence in its top-line performance.

Key Questions

Can Castle Biosciences achieve its raised 2026 total revenue guidance of $365 million to $375 million, particularly given the moderate sequential growth of Deci

Can Castle Biosciences achieve its raised 2026 total revenue guidance of $365 million to $375 million, particularly given the moderate sequential growth of DecisionDx-Melanoma and the acknowledged 'headwinds of big numbers' for TissueCypher's sustained high growth?

Question 2

Will the preliminary draft 2026 CLFS rate schedules in late September affirm the strong $3,675 rate for AdvanceAD-Tx, and how quickly will this translate into broad commercial payer coverage and a full commercial launch to drive significant revenue in 2027 and 2028?

Question 3

Will Novitas and MolDx release a favorable draft Local Coverage Determination (LCD) for DecisionDx-SCC in the second half of 2026, and will its terms be broad enough to significantly improve the test's reimbursement and market access for Medicare beneficiaries in approximately a year?

Earnings Transcript Summary2 rows
· 2026Q2 Earnings Call
3 Things Management Is Most Focused OnCall Takeaway & TonePrior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)Revenue Segments
3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. Strong execution and exceeding financial targets: Management highlighted delivering $103.5 million in revenue, a 20% Y/Y growth (40% excluding DecisionDx-SCC and IDgenetix), and raising the 2026 total revenue guidance to $365 million to $375 million, demonstrating confidence in their operational performance and market momentum. 2. Strategic investments in growth initiatives: The company is focused on investing in commercial resources to drive test adoption, generating clinical evidence for reimbursement and expansion, advancing pipeline opportunities in dermatology and gastroenterology, and increasing laboratory capacity, technology, and personnel to support future growth. 3. Advancing key product lines through clinical evidence and market penetration: Management emphasized the continued generation of substantial evidence for DecisionDx-Melanoma (e.g., outperforming MIA Nomogram) and the strong growth of TissueCypher (63% Y/Y volume growth), while also highlighting the positive early reception and clinical utility study for AdvanceAD-Tx.Call Takeaway & ToneThe call conveyed a highly positive and confident tone, reflecting Castle Biosciences' strong operational execution and financial performance in Q2 2026. Key takeaways include robust revenue growth driven by core products, a significant upward revision of full-year 2026 revenue guidance, and promising early traction for the new AdvanceAD-Tx test with favorable reimbursement developments. Management emphasized strategic investments in growth, clinical evidence generation, and pipeline advancement, while analysts focused on the sustainability of growth, reimbursement clarity for new products, and the impact of sales force adjustments. Despite some questions on sequential trends and future growth pacing, management provided reassuring responses, reinforcing an optimistic outlook for continued market penetration and long-term value creation.Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentTotal test report volumes for core revenue drivers (excluding DecisionDx-SCC and IDgenetix) in Q1 2026: approximately 36% Y/Y growth. DecisionDx-Melanoma test reports in Q1 2026: 16% Y/Y growth. TissueCypher test reports in Q1 2026: 58% Y/Y growth.3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. AdvanceAD-Tx reimbursement rate and full commercial launch: Analysts inquired about the rate associated with the crosswalk and updated expectations for a full commercial launch. Management expressed satisfaction with the $3,675 rate, viewing it as a strong benchmark for future commercial payer discussions, and indicated it supports a consistent, plotted launch towards a full rollout after the preliminary draft 2026 CLFS rate schedules in late September. 2. TissueCypher ASP trends and the impact on raised guidance: Analysts asked for more detail on Q2 ASP trends, any one-time factors, and if the $20 million guidance raise was primarily due to improved TissueCypher volume. Management confirmed some ASP pickup due to better experience with expected rates but stated they do not expect a similar stepwise increase in the back half, clarifying that most of the guidance raise is based on continued strong performance of both DecisionDx-Melanoma and TissueCypher volumes. 3. DecisionDx-Melanoma's moderate sequential growth and full-year volume confidence: Analysts noted the moderate sequential growth for DecisionDx-Melanoma, which was below typical seasonality, and questioned confidence in the mid-to-high single-digit full-year volume growth. Management attributed the moderate sequential growth partly to the commercial team adapting its customer engagement model to support three products and reiterated confidence in achieving mid-to-high single-digit volume growth for the full year 2026 based on their internal models.Revenue SegmentsTotal Revenue: 20% Y/Y growth. Revenue (excluding DecisionDx-SCC and IDgenetix): 40% Y/Y growth. Test report volume for core revenue drivers: 32% Y/Y growth. DecisionDx-Melanoma test reports: 3% Y/Y growth. TissueCypher test reports: 63% Y/Y growth. AdvanceAD-Tx: Over 1,000 orders in Q2 2026 (Y/Y growth not provided). DecisionDx-SCC: Volumes picked up (Y/Y growth not specified).
· 2026Q1 Earnings Call
3 Things Management Is Most Focused OnCall Takeaway & TonePrior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)Revenue Segments
3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. Executing growth priorities and raising 2026 revenue outlook: Management delivered strong Q1 results and raised their 2026 revenue outlook to between $345 million to $355 million, up from the previous guidance of $340 million to $350 million, reflecting confidence in their growth strategy. 2. Driving adoption and competitive advantage for DecisionDx-Melanoma through robust clinical evidence: Management highlighted 16% year-over-year growth in DecisionDx-Melanoma test reports and presented new data demonstrating the test's ability to significantly improve risk prediction within AJCC stages. 3. Expanding the gastroenterology franchise with TissueCypher and its clinical evidence: TissueCypher showed 58% year-over-year growth in test reports, and new studies were presented at Digestive Disease Week demonstrating its utility in refining risk assessment and informing management decisions for Barrett's esophagus patients.Call Takeaway & ToneThe overall takeaway of the call was positive and confident. Castle Biosciences delivered strong first-quarter results, driven by significant year-over-year growth in its core revenue drivers, DecisionDx-Melanoma and TissueCypher. Management raised the full-year 2026 revenue outlook, signaling confidence in their growth strategy and execution. The early response to the new AdvanceAD-Tx test was also highlighted as very positive. While analysts questioned some sequential trends and future growth phasing, management provided reassuring responses, emphasizing clinical evidence, market penetration, and strategic capacity planning. The tone was optimistic about continued progress and long-term value creation.Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentIn Q4 2025, DecisionDx-Melanoma test reports grew 15.56% year-over-year. In Q4 2025, TissueCypher test reports grew 76.90% year-over-year.3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. TissueCypher volume decline quarter-over-quarter despite strong Y/Y growth: Management explained that they are now seeing seasonality, with Q1 historically having fewer GI procedures, but noted that March was a record month for TissueCypher and the trend continued in April, expecting year-over-year growth approaching 50% for the full year. 2. Reimbursement initiatives for AdvanceAD-Tx and potential for material revenue: Management stated they expect to provide more detail on reimbursement by the end of Q3 2026, based on traditional reimbursement approaches, and also mentioned other potential avenues like interested parties controlling costs or partnerships with pharmaceutical companies. 3. DecisionDx-Melanoma volume growth expectations for the year (mid-to-high single-digit guidance vs. strong Q1): Management reiterated their mid-to-high single-digit growth expectations for 2026, noting that Q1 had an easier comparable than the rest of the year.Revenue SegmentsTotal test report volumes for core revenue drivers grew 36% year-over-year. Excluding DecisionDx-SCC and IDgenetix revenue, total revenue growth was approximately 42% year-over-year. DecisionDx-Melanoma test reports grew 16% year-over-year. TissueCypher test reports grew 58% year-over-year.
Transcript Tidbits2 rows
About Expanding Eligible MarketAbout CompetitionAbout The Broader IndustryWhere Things Are HeadedUpdates On ThemeBullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Hiring
About Expanding Eligible MarketCastle Biosciences' AdvanceAD-Tx test, which guides systemic treatment selection for moderate to severe atopic dermatitis patients aged 12 and up, received over 1,000 orders in the second quarter. A new independent real-world clinical utility study for AdvanceAD-Tx showed that while only 54.3% of patients were initially on pathway concordant treatment, 97.8% were initiated on molecularly concordant systemic therapy following testing. The company believes the crosswalk code for AdvanceAD-Tx, with a rate of $3,675, is strong and will serve as a benchmark for commercial payers. For TissueCypher, the company notes significant runway ahead as many physicians have not yet been educated on its clinical benefits for Barrett's esophagus patients. The DETECT-AD study with SciBase aims to help patients understand and control their disease, potentially allowing them to use less high-powered topical therapies, taper off rescue medications quicker, or lengthen out injection rates for systemic therapies.About CompetitionRegarding DecisionDx-Melanoma, the company has not seen significant changes in the competitive environment in recent months, with promotional responsiveness and the value of their test remaining consistent.About The Broader IndustryThe company observes seasonality in the gastroenterology market, with fewer GI procedures historically in the first quarter, similar to trends seen on the dermatology side. Clinicians are actively seeking tools, such as the AdvanceAD-Tx test, to aid in making more informed and better therapy selections aligned with individual patient's underlying disease biology. There is a broader market trend where patients desire to lengthen out their injection rates or use of oral therapies to reduce medication frequency, which the company's device aims to support. The company does not have visibility into potential impacts from ACA disenrollment on test volumes or shifts towards self-pay.Where Things Are HeadedCastle Biosciences raised its 2026 total revenue guidance to $365 million to $375 million, up from $345 million to $355 million, reflecting confidence in continued positive momentum. The company expects to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter, fourth quarter, and full year 2026, and for the full year 2027. For TissueCypher, 2026 test report volume is projected to trend toward 50% to 52% growth compared to 2025. DecisionDx-Melanoma is on track for mid- to high single-digit volume growth for the full year 2026. The company anticipates preliminary draft 2026 CLFS rate schedules for AdvanceAD-Tx in late September, which will help set reimbursement rates with commercial payers for a full launch in the future. For DecisionDx-SCC, if a positive draft coverage LCD is released by Medicare contractors in the second half of 2026, the company anticipates regaining coverage for Medicare beneficiaries approximately a year later. FDA clearance or approval for a breakthrough device is expected later this year or early next year. An update on the Previse GI pipeline test is anticipated in the first half of next year.Updates On ThemeDiagnosticsBullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)What a great quarter. We delivered revenue of $103.5 million, 20% growth compared to the second quarter of 2025. Test report volume for our core revenue drivers grew 32%. We delivered 14,988 TissueCypher test reports, representing 63% growth. AdvanceAD-Tx was recently recognized with the Genomics Innovation Award. Following testing with our AdvanceAD-Tx, 97.8% of patients were initiated on molecularly concordant systemic therapy. The rate of [ $3,675 ], I think, is a very, very strong rate for our test. We expect to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter, the fourth quarter and the full year 2026. Our strong balance sheet continues to provide financial flexibility to invest in our growth priorities. I'm encouraged by the momentum we're carrying into the remainder of the year.Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)DecisionDx-Melanoma test volume also increased approximately 3%... representing moderate sequential growth, though below the sequential increase we typically see. This moderate sequential growth was due in part to our commercial team adapting its customer engagement model to support 3 products within the same customer call. Our gross margin during the second quarter of 2026 was 74.9% compared to 77.3% in the second quarter of 2025. I wouldn't expect to see the same stepwise increase in the back half [for TissueCypher ASP]. We are certainly going to begin to face the headwinds of big numbers. The easier physicians to convert are the first ones and the ones that come later are perhaps take a bit more work.HiringThe company plans to add laboratory capacity, technology, and personnel to support future growth. Sales and marketing expenses were primarily driven by higher personnel costs. General and administrative expenses were primarily attributable to higher personnel costs, reflecting headcount expansions in administrative functions and annual wage adjustments. Cost of sales expenses increased due to higher personnel costs, reflecting a higher headcount to support business growth and annual wage adjustments. R&D expenses increased primarily due to higher personnel costs driven by increased headcount to support continued business growth. The company is 'kind of floating around 100 sales representative sales territories for both our gastroenterology division and our dermatology division' and had expansions last year and late second quarter of this year.
About Expanding Eligible MarketAbout CompetitionAbout The Broader IndustryWhere Things Are HeadedUpdates On ThemeBullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Hiring
About Expanding Eligible MarketCastle Biosciences' AdvanceAD-Tx test, designed to guide systemic treatment selection for moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis patients, received approximately 650 orders in Q1 2026 under a limited access program. The company expects to add a similar number of TissueCypher tests in 2026 as in 2025, indicating year-over-year growth approaching 50%. DecisionDx-Melanoma data presented at the 2026 American Academy of Dermatology Annual Meeting demonstrated the test's ability to significantly improve risk prediction within AJCC stages, identifying patients with substantially higher or lower mortality risk than staging alone would predict. The company also stated that M&A is expected to play a role in its growth story, with continued evaluation of candidates that fit its strategic opportunities criteria.About CompetitionThe company aims to sustain its competitive advantage for DecisionDx-Melanoma through robust clinical evidence. Feedback from clinicians regarding NCCN guidelines suggests a perception that the guidelines are 'more political than we even thought' concerning a study that 'failed to meet the 5% cut point'.About The Broader IndustryThe gastroenterology market experiences seasonality, with historically fewer GI procedures in the first quarter of the year. The company noted that long revenue cycles from a revenue cycle management (RCM) perspective are a factor for new test reimbursement. M&A is recognized as a potential growth strategy within the industry.Where Things Are HeadedCastle Biosciences raised its 2026 revenue outlook to between $345 million and $355 million, up from the previously provided range of $340 million to $350 million. The company expects DecisionDx-Melanoma to achieve mid- to high single-digit volume growth for the full year 2026. TissueCypher is anticipated to add a similar number of test reports in 2026 as in 2025, indicating year-over-year growth approaching 50%. The AdvanceAD-Tx test is viewed as a midterm (2027 and 2028) revenue driver, with more detail on reimbursement expected by the end of the third quarter 2026. The company is moving forward with an FDA submission for melanoma in 2026. A draft LCD for DecisionDx-SCC is anticipated in the second half of 2026, following accepted reconsideration requests. M&A is expected to play a role in the company's future growth.Updates On ThemeTheBullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)We delivered strong first quarter results, building on our momentum from 2025. Test report volumes for our core revenue drivers grew 36% compared to the first quarter of 2025. raising our 2026 revenue outlook to between $345 million to $355 million. March of 2026 saw an all-time high record month for test reports delivered. TissueCypher test reports... which is 58% growth. having 650 orders come in the door in the first quarter is very, very nice reinforcement of the opportunity that we have here. We are quite pleased with the continued early response of the dermatologic clinicians out there in the field. We still continue to believe that there -- that kind of a year plus review cycle should be plenty of time for a reconsideration request... That would be surprising.Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)volumes did decline very modestly quarter-over-quarter. Q1 was a bit of an easier comp than we expect for the rest of the year. I don't quite understand what NCCN sees here. I think, unfortunately, from an NCCN standpoint, there's a belief that this is really more political than we even thought, I guess you would say. the primary hurdle for our AD test is just our -- candidly, our willingness to -- how available do we want to make it. it was a little bit surprising to see the net loss and the lower-than-expected EBITDA in the quarter.HiringIncreases in personnel costs reflect a higher headcount driven by sales force expansion, headcount expansions in administrative support functions, and additions made to support business growth in response to growing test report volumes. There was also a higher headcount to support continued business growth and increases in clinical studies costs. The company currently covers both dermatology and gastroenterology verticals with fewer than 100 sales representatives.
NotesTable
DateCommentComment TypeComment SentimentLinkPrice Reaction
2026-07-30Castle Biosciences reported strong Q2 2026 results, with revenue of $103.5 million beating estimates and core test volumes up 32%. TissueCypher surged 63% year-over-year, driving a raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $365-375 million. The company also anticipates positive Adjusted EBITDA for the rest of 2026. CSTL's stock gained 4.52% post-earnings, significantly outperforming SPY, indicating strong market confidence in its growth trajectory and path to profitability.Earnings TranscriptPositivehttps://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQG11rM7MtsUyxR7t7XXwk7S5Yn76y4hldM-hcaY3zLm5rjpt4XvRiHTlz8O6-y44Ns1wca8rBa9FqU4p02gTnPpzh2yKbCdIFUis4_hwGqOiLQZa9H_EnZXq6y3rtgjTYj03utpaGqGChW4FrZjwoXW9CS0DgvUbV1IRMUCaZrGx5Ni5NbsFioyDx2RPX53Ywoxnr3uCMCKgwHN+4.52% (vs SPY: +4.52%)
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