APLD

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Applied Digital Corp.

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Overview

Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates specialized data centers, called AI factories, for high-performance computing and artificial intelligence. Its pri

Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates specialized data centers, called AI factories, for high-performance computing and artificial intelligence. Its primary revenue comes from HPC hosting for tier-1 hyperscalers like CoreWeave, which accounts for a significant portion of its $36 billion contracted revenue. A smaller segment provides infrastructure for crypto mining, and its majority-owned subsidiary, ChronoScale, offers GPU cloud services, including a 50MW deployment with Microsoft.

Key Inputs And Sourcing

1. Tenant Fit-Out Services (Components & Labor)

Not in registry

other · North America, Global · ~71.6% of Services and other cost of revenues

Source Explicitly stated as $176.1 million out of $245.7 million in 'services and other cost of revenues' for HPC hosting business. This includes various components (electrical, cooling, networking) and labor for data center build-out. CEO mentions locking in 'key components' and 'full factory capacity output' from certain factories for a 4-year timeframe.

Confidence: high

2. Energy (Electricity/Natural Gas)

Not in registry

energy · natural-gas · North America (North Dakota, Louisiana, Alabama), Finland · ~8.1% of Services and other cost of revenues

Source Explicitly stated as $19.8 million in 'energy cost' within 'services and other cost of revenues'. Power is called the 'single largest gating factor in our industry'. APLD has a long-term power purchase agreement for a 1.2 GW natural gas facility in North Dakota.

Confidence: high

3. Data Center Electrical Components (e.g., Transformers, Switchgear)

Not in registry

component · Global · unknown

Source Implied by 'well honed supply chain' and locking in 'key components' for data center builds. Substation and grid upgrades are mentioned as significant investments. Electrical systems are crucial for data centers.

Confidence: medium

4. Data Center Cooling Systems (e.g., Liquid Cooling Infrastructure)

Not in registry

component · Global · unknown

Source APLD's facilities are 'liquid cooled'. CEO mentions cooling as a key design aspect for future-proofing.

Confidence: medium

5. Networking Equipment (Fiber, Switches)

Not in registry

component · Global · unknown

Source Fiber is mentioned as an established local supply chain component. Essential for data center operations and connectivity.

Confidence: low

Industry Publications

  • Data Center Frontier (datacenterfrontier.com) — Dedicated to news and analysis of the data center industry, covering hyperscale, colocation, and enterprise data centers, power, cooling, and AI infrastructure.
  • Mission Critical Magazine (missioncriticalmagazine.com) — Focuses on design, construction, and operation of mission-critical facilities, including data centers, relevant to APLD's 'AI factories'.
  • DCD (Data Center Dynamics) (datacenterdynamics.com) — Provides global news, analysis, and events for the data center industry, covering technology, infrastructure, and market trends.
  • Power Engineering (power-eng.com) — Covers power generation, transmission, and distribution, which is critical given APLD's focus on securing large-scale power for its campuses and partnerships like Base Electron.
  • T&D World (tdworld.com) — Focuses on the transmission and distribution of electricity, directly relevant to APLD's need for grid interconnection and upgrades for its data center campuses.

Economic Data Watch

1. U.S. Census Bureau — Value of Construction Put in Place

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field CPICN

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks overall nonresidential construction spending, a key demand driver for data center buildouts and industrial infrastructure relevant to APLD's expansion.

Signal to watch Sustained growth in nonresidential construction spending is bullish, indicating a healthy environment for data center development.

Confidence: high

2. Federal Reserve Board — Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Not in registry

Metric/field INDPRO

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Indicates the health of the manufacturing sector, which affects the supply and cost of materials and equipment for data center construction.

Signal to watch Increasing industrial production suggests a more robust supply chain and potentially stable or lower input costs for APLD's builds.

Confidence: high

3. U.S. Department of the Treasury — Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity

Not in registry

Metric/field DGS10

Cadence daily

Why it matters APLD's financing costs for project-level debt and corporate debt are sensitive to interest rates. Lower rates support more attractive terms.

Signal to watch Declining or stable 10-year Treasury yields are bullish for APLD's ability to secure favorable financing for its campuses.

Confidence: high

4. EIA — Average Retail Price of Electricity

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field ELEC.PRICE.ND-ALL.M

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Power cost is a significant operational expense for data centers, especially in APLD's core North Dakota market.

Signal to watch Stable or decreasing electricity prices in key operating regions like North Dakota are bullish for APLD's operating margins.

Confidence: medium

5. Trading Economics — Finland Industrial Production

Not in registryaccess=scrape

Metric/field Finland Industrial Production

Cadence monthly

Why it matters APLD is expanding into Finland; industrial production can be a proxy for local economic activity and potential demand for data center services, as well as supply chain health.

Signal to watch Growth in Finland's industrial production could signal a more robust economic environment supporting APLD's European expansion.

Confidence: high

Free Alt Data Watch

1. FERC / MISO — MISO Interconnection Queue

Not in registry

Metric/field queue_status:data_center_projects

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Tracks new data center projects seeking grid connections, indicating competitive landscape and future supply in APLD's key operating regions.

Signal to watch Fewer new large-scale data center projects entering the queue in APLD's regions is bullish, suggesting less competition for power and land.

Confidence: medium

2. Google Trends — Web Search Interest

Not in registry

Metric/field search_interest:AI data center buildout

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Indicates general public and industry interest in AI data center construction, reflecting underlying demand for APLD's services.

Signal to watch Sustained or increasing search interest suggests continued high demand for AI infrastructure, benefiting APLD.

Confidence: medium

3. SEC EDGAR — Form 8-K Filings

Not in registry

Metric/field filing_description:new lease agreement

Cadence event_driven

Why it matters APLD frequently announces new customer contracts, campus expansions, and financing milestones via 8-K filings, which are critical for revenue visibility and growth.

Signal to watch Timely announcements of new hyperscaler leases, expansion agreements, or favorable financing indicate strong execution and future revenue growth.

Confidence: high

4. North Dakota Public Service Commission — Utility Dockets

Not in registry

Metric/field docket_status:power_plant_approvals

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Tracks regulatory approvals for new power generation and infrastructure, which is crucial for APLD's ability to secure power for its expanding campuses, especially with partners like Base Electron.

Signal to watch Expeditious approvals for relevant power projects are bullish, ensuring APLD's long-term power supply and expansion capabilities.

Confidence: medium

5. APLD Investor Relations — Press Releases / Newsroom

Not in registry

Metric/field press_release_content:construction_milestone

Cadence event_driven

Why it matters Direct source for company-announced construction progress, operational milestones, and new partnerships, which are key indicators of execution.

Signal to watch Consistent announcements of construction milestones met on schedule and new capacity coming online are bullish, demonstrating strong execution.

Confidence: high

Paid Alt Data Watch

1. Revelio Labs — Job Postings

Not in registryaccess=file

Metric/field job_postings_count:Data Center Construction Manager

Cadence monthly

Why it matters A leading indicator of project execution and capacity ramp-ups in the data center sector, directly correlating with APLD's ability to build and deliver.

Signal to watch Increasing job postings for specialized construction and engineering roles by APLD and across the industry suggest accelerating buildouts and strong demand.

Confidence: high

2. datacenterHawk — Data Center Pricing Benchmark

Matcheddatacenterhawk_data_center_pricing_benchmark · access=file · map_only

Metric/field lease_rate_per_MW:North_Dakota_Hyperscale

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Provides insights into market pricing for data center capacity, directly impacting APLD's revenue potential from new leases and expansions.

Signal to watch Rising lease rates for hyperscale capacity in APLD's operating regions are bullish, indicating pricing power and higher potential margins.

Confidence: high

3. Industrial Info Resources — North American Data Center Project Database

Not in registry

Metric/field project_status:APLD_campuses

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Offers detailed tracking of industrial projects, including data centers, providing independent verification of APLD's construction progress and competitive activity.

Signal to watch Positive updates on APLD's project statuses (e.g., moving from planning to construction, reaching completion) and limited delays are bullish.

Confidence: high

4. CloudPrice — GPU Cloud Pricing

Matchedcloudprice_cloud_compute_pricing_technology · access=file · map_only

Metric/field GPU_rental_rate:NVIDIA_GV300N

Cadence daily

Why it matters Monitors the pricing environment for GPU compute, which is the underlying demand driver for APLD's AI factories and ChronoScale's business.

Signal to watch Stable or increasing GPU rental rates suggest robust demand for AI compute, translating to strong demand for APLD's infrastructure.

Confidence: high

5. Similarweb — Website Traffic Analytics

Matchedsimilarweb_website_traffic_engagement · access=file · map_only

Metric/field traffic_volume:coreweave.com

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Provides a proxy for the business activity and growth of APLD's major customers like CoreWeave, indicating their demand for compute capacity.

Signal to watch Sustained growth in website traffic for APLD's key customers is bullish, suggesting increasing demand for their services and thus for APLD's infrastructure.

Confidence: medium

Search Keywords Brand Product

  • AI factories
  • HPC hosting
  • data center hosting
  • ChronoScale
  • AI infrastructure
  • high-performance computing
  • data center development
  • hyperscale data centers
  • GPU cloud
  • power purchase agreement
  • digital infrastructure

Search Keywords Event Phrases

  • APLD earnings
  • Applied Digital Finland expansion
  • CoreWeave lease
  • Base Electron PPA
What They Do (Plain English & Analogies)
Applied Digital (APLD) designs, builds, and operates massive data centers, which they call 'AI factories,' specifically tailored for the intense power and cooling needs of artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads. Think of them as specialized landlords for the AI industry: they provide the land, the buildings, the power, and the cooling infrastructure, and then lease this 'AI factory' space to large tech companies (hyperscalers) that run powerful AI models. They also have a smaller business hosting cryptocurrency mining and own a significant stake in ChronoScale, a company that provides GPU cloud computing services, effectively reaching all the way to the actual AI compute hardware.
Very Brief History
Applied Digital Corporation was formerly known as Applied Blockchain, Inc. and officially changed its name to Applied Digital Corporation in November 2022 to reflect its pivot towards high-performance computing and AI. The company began signing significant leases for its AI factory campuses, notably securing its first major lease with CoreWeave in May 2025 for its Polaris Forge 1 campus in North Dakota, rapidly expanding its footprint in the AI infrastructure market.
"Street Stereotype"
Applied Digital is generally perceived on the street as a key 'AI factory' landlord, offering rare early-stage exposure to long-duration, contracted AI compute demand. Investors see it as a scarce execution play in AI infrastructure, validated by significant long-term leases with top-tier AI customers like CoreWeave and strategic financing structures. The market focuses on its ability to build out large-scale AI data centers rapidly and efficiently.
Subsidiaries On Linked In*
  • ChronoScale — Applied Digital holds an approximately 96% ownership stake.; LinkedIn: chronoscale-inc
Customer Sectors & Example Clients
Applied Digital's primary customer sectors are high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI) industries. Their top client is CoreWeave, an AI hyperscaler. Through its subsidiary ChronoScale, they also serve clients like Microsoft for AI compute deployments. They target other 'tier-1 investment-grade hyperscalers' for their large-scale AI factory campuses.
New Customers / Segments They'Re Targeting
Applied Digital is actively targeting additional tier-1 investment-grade hyperscalers for new and expanded campuses, particularly in North America. They are also selectively pursuing opportunities in new international markets, with Finland being their first step into Europe, where they are marketing a gigawatt-scale site to leading global hyperscale customers. Furthermore, their ChronoScale subsidiary is expanding its GPU cloud computing business, securing capacity at smaller, more distributed sites (50-100 MW) that may have been overlooked by larger-scale developers, targeting the growing 'neocloud' segment.
Sales Geographies And Expansion Plans
Currently, Applied Digital primarily operates in North America, with significant development and operational activities in North Dakota (Ellendale, Harwood, Center), Louisiana, and Alabama. The company has recently taken its first step outside the United States by securing an agreement for up to 1 gigawatt of potential power capacity in Finland, with initial power availability anticipated in 2028. While their near-term focus remains on domestic projects, Finland represents a measured long-term expansion into attractive European markets.
How Key Themes May Help/Hurt
Applied Digital is strongly positioned to benefit from the 'AI '25: Data Center Buildout' theme. The accelerating global construction of hyperscale data centers, driven by AI, directly increases demand for APLD's 'AI factories.' Development constraints like limited powered land, lengthy permitting processes, and skilled labor shortages favor established operators like APLD, who have already secured sites, power, and community support, leading to stronger pricing power and project backlogs. The trend towards larger and more complex facilities with higher rack densities and advanced cooling requirements also increases the value of APLD's specialized design and construction capabilities. Conversely, the company could be hurt if an AI capital expenditure slowdown occurs, reducing demand for new facilities. While APLD actively mitigates power availability and permitting delays through strategic partnerships and established campuses, broader industry challenges could still create headwinds. Overbuilding in the data center market could also lead to pricing pressure, though APLD's focus on long-term, premium-priced contracts with tier-1 clients aims to counter this.

3 Main Long-Term Bull Details

  1. Massive Contracted Revenue & Hyperscaler Validation: Applied Digital boasts approximately $36 billion in contracted revenue across five campuses, primarily from long-term (15-year take-or-pay) leases with tier-1 investment-grade hyperscalers like CoreWeave. This provides exceptional revenue visibility and validates their platform's appeal to leading AI customers.
  2. Differentiated, Future-Proofed AI Factory Design: The company's proprietary data center design is built for a 30+ year horizon, emphasizing flexibility and adaptability to evolving compute architectures, network configurations, and electrical/mechanical requirements. This long-term asset strategy is expected to generate outsized returns and support continuous technology refreshes within the same facilities.
  3. Strategic Power Access & Scarcity Value of Campuses: APLD's proactive approach to securing power, exemplified by its 1.2 gigawatt power purchase agreement with Base Electron in North Dakota, and its focus on developing established, community-supported campuses, creates significant barriers to entry. This scarcity value is expected to drive premium pricing for expansions and renewals, enhancing the long-term terminal value of their assets.

3 Main Long-Term Bear Details

  1. High Customer Concentration Risk: A significant portion of Applied Digital's contracted revenue, approximately 30% of the $36 billion, is tied to CoreWeave. While CoreWeave is a top-tier AI customer, this concentration exposes APLD to risks associated with a single client's financial health or strategic shifts.
  2. Thin Profitability & High Leverage: Despite strong revenue growth, the company reported an adjusted net loss in the recent quarter, and its GAAP net loss was substantial due to non-cash items like stock-based compensation and warrant revaluations. The company also carries significant debt, approximately $6.4 billion, which, while largely project-level and long-dated, represents considerable leverage for a company of its market capitalization.
  3. Execution and Timing Risks in Rapid Expansion: Applied Digital is undertaking a rapid and ambitious expansion, expecting to place over 600 megawatts into service in the next 12 months. This aggressive build-out across multiple campuses simultaneously carries inherent execution and timing risks, including potential supply chain constraints, construction delays, and the challenge of consistently bringing contracted capacity online on schedule and within budget.
Competitors And Differentiation
Applied Digital competes with other data center developers and operators, particularly those focused on high-performance computing and AI workloads, as well as hyperscalers that build their own facilities. Their differentiation strategy centers on several key aspects: a proprietary and proven data center design built for a 30+ year lifespan, offering substantial adaptability to evolving compute architectures and cooling requirements; a well-honed supply chain and deep energy partnerships; a demonstrated ability to deliver on lease commitments; and a focus on securing dedicated power resources (like the 1.2 GW PPA with Base Electron) to mitigate industry-wide power constraints. They also emphasize their 'franchise model' of building large, sustainable AI factories and securing durable, high-quality, long-term (15+ year take-or-pay) contracts with tier-1 investment-grade hyperscalers. The company also highlights the increasing scarcity value of its established, powered, and community-supported campuses, which creates significant barriers to entry for competitors.
Recent Performance & What The Market'S Focused On
Applied Digital reported strong fiscal first-quarter 2027 results, with total revenue surging 322% year-over-year to $341.9 million and adjusted EBITDA reaching $64.4 million, up significantly from the prior year. However, the company also reported a net loss from continuing operations of $221 million, largely influenced by non-cash stock-based compensation and warrant valuation changes. The market is currently focused on APLD's ability to continue executing its ambitious build-out plan, particularly bringing over 600 megawatts online in the next 12 months. Key areas of investor attention include securing favorable financing for upcoming campuses (Polaris Forge 3, Delta Forge 1 & 2) with investment-grade hyperscalers, the potential for materially higher pricing on new and expansion leases, and the growth trajectory of its ChronoScale subsidiary, which is targeting $1 billion in annual recurring revenue by 2027. The strategic value and scarcity of APLD's established, powered campuses are also central to market discussions.
Revenue Segments And Estimated Mix
  • HPC Hosting Business — Mix: ~76.8%; Source: Q1 FY27 transcript; Trend: Generated $262.6 million of revenue, including $183.5 million from tenant fit-out services and $65.8 million of base rent.
  • Data Center Hosting Business (Bitcoin mining) — Mix: ~11.1%; Source: Q1 FY27 transcript; Trend: Generated $37.8 million in revenue, in line with the prior year quarter, providing steady high-margin revenue with minimal ongoing capital investment.
  • ChronoScale — Mix: ~12.1%; Source: Q1 FY27 transcript; Trend: Generated $41.5 million in revenue, including $23 million of GPU hardware sales, and is on track to reach $1 billion of ARR in 2027.
Product Brands
{"brands":[]}
Bull / Bear Details

Applied Digital is solidifying its position as a premier "AI factory" landlord, now boasting $36 billion in contracted revenue and a proprietary, flexible data

Thesis

Applied Digital is solidifying its position as a premier "AI factory" landlord, now boasting $36 billion in contracted revenue and a proprietary, flexible data center design built for 30+ year horizons. With increasing scarcity value for established campuses, successful project financing at favorable rates, and a clear path to 3.5-4 gigawatts by 2030, APLD offers compelling early-stage exposure to long-duration, contracted AI compute demand. (October 21, 2026)

Bull case

  • Applied Digital has significantly expanded its contracted revenue to approximately $36 billion across five campuses, demonstrating strong demand and validation from tier-1 investment-grade hyperscalers. This includes expectations for 250 megawatts of expansion leases by year-end at materially higher pricing, indicating robust pricing power and continued customer commitment.

  • The company has proven its ability to secure favorable financing, closing the final tranche for Polaris Forge 1 at a 7% coupon, significantly lower than previous offerings. Management expresses high confidence in funding future campuses (Polaris Forge 3, Delta Forge 1 & 2) at attractive rates due to the credit quality of its tier-1 investment-grade tenants.

  • APLD's established campuses are gaining strategic value amidst growing industry scrutiny, local moratoriums, and permitting challenges. This creates significant barriers to entry for competitors and supports stronger economics on expansions and renewals, enhancing the long-term terminal value of its assets. The company also secured a 1.2 GW power agreement in North Dakota and is expanding internationally into Finland.

Bear case

  • Despite efforts to diversify, customer concentration risk remains a concern, with CoreWeave still accounting for a substantial portion of the backlog and revenue. While new tier-1 hyperscaler contracts are emerging, a significant reliance on a few key customers could expose APLD to risks if any major client faces operational or financial difficulties.

  • Profitability remains thin, as evidenced by a net loss of $221 million or $7.76 per share for the quarter, despite strong revenue growth. While adjusted EBITDA was positive, the significant net loss and the impact of non-cash items like stock-based compensation and warrant revaluation highlight ongoing challenges in achieving consistent GAAP profitability.

  • Execution and timing risks persist as APLD ramps up multiple large-scale sites simultaneously, aiming to place over 600 megawatts into service in the next 12 months. The industry faces tight supply chains for components and power remains a significant gating factor, which could lead to construction delays or increased costs.

Bull / Bear Case
Bear Case
Despite strong revenue growth, Applied Digital faces significant challenges, including a substantial net loss of $221 million for the quarter, highlighting thin GAAP profitability and the impact of non-cash items like stock-based compensation and warrant revaluations. The company carries approximately $6.4 billion in debt, representing considerable leverage, even if largely project-level and long-dated. Customer concentration risk remains a concern, with a significant portion of contracted revenue tied to a few key clients. The ambitious plan to place over 600 megawatts into service in the next 12 months carries inherent execution and timing risks, exacerbated by tight supply chains for components and power being a major gating factor in the industry, potentially leading to delays or increased costs.
Bull Case
Applied Digital is solidifying its position as a premier "AI factory" landlord, boasting approximately $36 billion in contracted revenue across five campuses, primarily from long-term (15-year take-or-pay) leases with tier-1 investment-grade hyperscalers. This provides exceptional revenue visibility and validates their platform's appeal. The company's proprietary data center design is future-proofed for 30+ year horizons, offering flexibility and adaptability to evolving compute architectures. APLD's proactive approach to securing power, including a 1.2 GW power purchase agreement in North Dakota, and its focus on established, community-supported campuses, creates significant barriers to entry. This scarcity value is expected to drive premium pricing for expansions and renewals, enhancing long-term asset value. Furthermore, ChronoScale is on track for $1 billion ARR by 2027, diversifying revenue streams.
More Compelling & Why
Bear. Given the significant net loss of $221 million in the recent quarter and the substantial $6.4 billion in debt, the valuation appears stretched. The stock's significant underperformance post-earnings (-18.71% vs. SPY's -0.94%) suggests the market is weighing these profitability and leverage concerns heavily. The strongest argument for the bear case is the ongoing GAAP net losses despite revenue growth, indicating challenges in translating contracted revenue into sustainable profitability. My view would flip to Bull if APLD demonstrates consistent GAAP profitability and a clear path to deleveraging, supported by strong free cash flow generation.
Key Factors5 rows
Key FactorWhy It MattersWhat To WatchWhat It SignalsWhere/How To TrackFree Alt DataPaid Alt Data
Total Megawatts Placed into Service (Next 12 Months)This metric directly reflects Applied Digital's execution capability in bringing contracted capacity online, converting its backlog into revenue-generating assets, and scaling its AI factory operations. It's a key indicator of operational momentum.Updates on the total critical IT load brought online across all campuses. Specifically, monitoring progress towards the target of placing over 600 megawatts into service over the next 12 months.Achieving or exceeding 600 megawatts placed into service over the next 12 months = Bullish.Company earnings calls, investor presentations, and operational updates. The next update will likely be in the Q2 FY27 earnings call in January 2027.

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Progress on International Expansion in FinlandInitial steps into the European market, particularly securing up to 1 gigawatt of potential power capacity in Finland, represent a measured but significant long-term growth opportunity, diversifying geographic risk and leveraging Applied Digital's expertise globally.Updates on the development timeline for the Finland site, specifically confirmation of the first 100 megawatts becoming available in 2028 and subsequent ramp-up towards the full gigawatt by 2031.Confirmation of on-schedule development and customer interest for the Finland campus, with initial power capacity coming online as planned in 2028 = Bullish.Company press releases, investor presentations, and earnings calls. Updates expected periodically as development progresses.

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Financing Close for Polaris Forge 3, Delta Forge 1, and Delta Forge 2Securing financing for these next-generation campuses, leased to a tier-1 investment-grade hyperscaler, is crucial for Applied Digital's continued growth and execution of its contracted portfolio. Favorable terms will reduce the cost of capital and enhance shareholder returns.Confirmation of financing close, including the total amount, interest rates, and equity component. Look for rates lower than the 9.25% on previous Polaris Forge 1 notes, ideally closer to the 7% achieved on the most recent tranche.Close of financing for Polaris Forge 3, Delta Forge 1, and Delta Forge 2 at favorable rates (e.g., ≤7% coupon) and terms by Q2 FY27 = Bullish.Company press releases, SEC filings (Form 8-K), and subsequent earnings calls. Expected in the coming quarters.

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Execution of 250MW Expansion Leases at Premium PricingThe successful execution of these expansion leases at materially higher pricing validates Applied Digital's pricing power, the scarcity value of its established campuses, and its ability to secure more favorable contract terms, directly boosting future revenue and profitability.Announcement of new expansion leases, specifically the total megawatts contracted and the reported pricing relative to prior leases (e.g., 'north of 15%-plus increases on the lease rate').Execution of 250MW of expansion leases by year-end 2026 with lease rates 'materially higher' (e.g., >15% increase) than prior leases = Bullish.Company press releases, SEC filings (Form 8-K), and subsequent earnings calls. Expected by year-end 2026.

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ChronoScale Reaches $1 Billion Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) TargetChronoScale's growth and achievement of its ARR target would diversify Applied Digital's revenue streams, validate its strategic investment in the neocloud segment, and demonstrate the potential for significant value creation from its majority-owned subsidiary.Announcements regarding new ChronoScale contracts and updates on its ARR run rate. Specifically, monitoring progress towards the $1 billion ARR target for 2027.ChronoScale reporting an ARR run rate of $1 billion or more by year-end 2027 = Bullish.Company press releases, ChronoScale-specific announcements, and Applied Digital's earnings calls. Expected updates throughout 2027.

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Key Reported Metrics, Reratings Triggers & Results3 rows

This operational metric directly reflects Applied Digital's ability to execute on its buildout commitments and bring contracted AI computing capacity online. It

Upcoming print · 2027-01-06

Key reported metrics
MetricLast periodWhy it matters
Megawatts Placed into Service140%

This operational metric directly reflects Applied Digital's ability to execute on its buildout commitments and bring contracted AI computing capacity online. It is crucial for future revenue generation and validating the company's 'AI factory' strategy.

Adjusted EBITDA12780%

Adjusted EBITDA is a key indicator of operating leverage and profitability improvement, especially as tenant fit-out revenue peaks and lease income begins. Investors closely monitor this metric for signs of scalable and sustainable profitability.

Total Revenue322%

This metric demonstrates the company's overall growth and execution in converting its contracted portfolio into revenue. Sustained growth confirms the effectiveness of its AI factory buildout strategy and provides visibility into long-term contracts.

Key Questions

Will Applied Digital successfully secure favorable financing for Polaris Forge 3, Delta Forge 1, and Delta Forge 2, leased to a tier-1 investment-grade hypersca

Will Applied Digital successfully secure favorable financing for Polaris Forge 3, Delta Forge 1, and Delta Forge 2, leased to a tier-1 investment-grade hyperscaler, without significant dilution?

Question 2

Can Applied Digital execute on its target of 250 megawatts of expansion leases by year-end 2026 at materially higher pricing, and will this demonstrate continued demand diversification beyond CoreWeave?

Question 3

As Applied Digital ramps up to place over 600 megawatts into service over the next 12 months, will adjusted EBITDA and cash flow continue to improve materially, demonstrating scalable and sustainable profitability?

Earnings Transcript SummaryTable
· 2027Q1 Earnings Call
3 Things Management Is Most Focused OnCall Takeaway & TonePrior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By Segment3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)Revenue Segments
3 Things Management Is Most Focused On1. **Execution and Expansion of AI Factories:** Management is focused on converting their $36 billion in contracted revenue across five campuses into sustainable, profitable growth, and expanding existing campuses. They expect to place over 600 megawatts into service over the next 12 months, a significant increase from 250 megawatts in the past 12 months. They highlighted progress in North Dakota, with 250 megawatts of critical IT load delivered at Polaris Forge 1 and an anticipated 300 megawatts online across North Dakota by year-end. 2. **Securing Long-Term, High-Quality Contracts and Favorable Financing:** A primary focus is on signing durable, high-quality long-term (15+ years) take-or-pay contracts with proven, tier-1 investment-grade hyperscalers. They are also focused on optimizing financial returns through a well-honed supply chain, deep energy partnerships, and securing favorable financing, as evidenced by the lower coupon rate on their recent notes compared to prior offerings and active discussions for financing Polaris Forge 3, Delta Forge 1, and Delta Forge 2. 3. **Leveraging Strategic Value of Existing Campuses and Power Infrastructure:** Management emphasizes the increasing strategic value of their established campuses due to growing scrutiny and difficulties in new data center development (moratoriums, zoning). They believe their existing, powered, and community-supported campuses create significant barriers to entry, support stronger economics on expansions, and lead to higher terminal values for their assets. The long-term power purchase agreement with Base Electron for 1.2 gigawatts in North Dakota further strengthens their ability to expand on their own timeline.Call Takeaway & ToneThe overall takeaway of the call is that Applied Digital is confidently executing its strategy to become a leading AI factory developer and operator, leveraging its established campuses, strategic power agreements, and differentiated long-term design. The company is transitioning from a focus on growing contracted value to bringing capacity online and optimizing financial returns. The tone was highly positive and confident, with management emphasizing their strong execution, strategic positioning in key markets like North Dakota, and the increasing scarcity value of their infrastructure. They highlighted strong demand, favorable financing trends for investment-grade tenants, and a clear path to significant capacity expansion.Prior Quarter'S Y/Y Growth By SegmentIn Q4 FY26, total revenue was $258.7 million, up 407% year over year. HPC Hosting revenue was $203.0 million, up 580.7% year over year. Data Center Hosting revenue was $37.3 million, which was consistent year over year (0% y/y growth). ChronoScale revenue was $18.8 million, with no explicit year-over-year growth percentage provided in the Q4 FY26 reports.3 Things Analysts Most Pressed On (And Mgmt Responses)1. **Financing Options for Investment-Grade Hyperscaler Debt:** Analysts questioned the current options for debt funding given a challenging bond market. Management responded that for high investment-grade hyperscalers, there are multiple options beyond the high-yield bond market, including the project finance market and new innovations in the investment-grade bond market. They focus on terms that allow refinancing into lower-cost markets after construction risk is mitigated. 2. **Finland Expansion and Associated Risks/Opportunities:** Analysts inquired about the 'limited initial exposure' in the Finland announcement, the options embedded, commercial progression, and potential community/governmental risks. Management clarified that they purchased the site with an option for additional power, limiting initial financial risk. They noted positive community receptivity, similar to North Dakota, and that the first 100 megawatts are available in 2028, ramping to a full gigawatt by 2031. Build costs are expected to be similar to the US on a dollar-for-euro basis. 3. **Longevity of Data Center Campuses and Future-Proofing:** Analysts noted management's increased emphasis on the longevity of data center campuses and asked about the genesis of these comments, particularly concerning GPU refresh cycles. Management explained that their 'fourth-generation data center design' is built for maximum flexibility and a 30+ year horizon, accommodating evolving compute architectures, network configurations, and electrical/mechanical requirements. This differentiates them from competitors focused on shorter GPU lifecycles and aims to ensure facilities serve needs well beyond initial 15-year lease terms.Revenue SegmentsTotal revenue reported at $341.9 million, up 322% from $80.9 million in the prior year quarter. The HPC hosting business generated $262.6 million in revenue, consisting of $65.8 million of base rent, $183.5 million of tenant fit out services, and $13.3 million of tenant recoveries. The data center hosting segment generated $37.8 million in revenue, which was in line with the prior year quarter (0% y/y growth). ChronoScale's revenue was $41.5 million, including $23 million of GPU hardware sales.
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About Expanding Eligible MarketAbout CompetitionAbout The Broader IndustryWhere Things Are HeadedUpdates On ThemeBullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)
About Expanding Eligible MarketApplied Digital expects to continue expanding its existing campuses and selectively adding new locations, with approximately 250 megawatts of expansion leases anticipated by year-end at materially higher pricing compared to prior leases. The company is developing campuses with substantial expansion potential in Louisiana and Alabama, with revenue contribution from this region expected to begin in the first half of calendar year 2027. Applied Digital has also taken its first steps outside the United States, signing an agreement for up to 1 gigawatt of potential power capacity in Finland, with initial 100 megawatts available in 2028 and ramping to the full gigawatt by 2031. ChronoScale is pursuing a strategy to secure data center capacity outside of the large-scale Applied Digital sites, aiming for multiple hundreds of megawatts in 50- to 100-megawatt sites over 2027 and 2028.About CompetitionApplied Digital differentiates its data center design, building for the long term with 30-plus year horizons, which it believes is substantially more adaptable than competitors' facilities often designed around the typical 5- to 6-year life cycle of a GPU. The company states it is "substantially ahead of our closest competitors in delivery capacity" at its Ellendale campus. Applied Digital highlights its advantage in contracting for dedicated generation at the scale of its campuses, rather than waiting in interconnection queues like many operators. The company views the growing scrutiny around data center development, including local moratoriums, tighter zoning, and community resistance, as increasing the strategic value and scarcity of its established, powered, and community-supported campuses, creating meaningful barriers to entry and supporting stronger economics on expansions and renewals. Management noted that while some competitors are hyper-focused on quickly bringing capacity online, Applied Digital takes a longer-term view in its data center design and build.About The Broader IndustryPower remains the single largest gating factor in the industry. The data center development industry is facing increasing scrutiny, with more local moratoriums, tighter zoning requirements, longer permitting timelines, and greater community resistance in certain markets. NVIDIA expects neoclouds to exit 2026 with 8 gigawatts of installed capacity, an increase from 3 gigawatts at the end of 2025. Demand for AI compute capacity remains extremely robust, with most 2027 capacity already contracted and strong demand extending into 2028 and 2029. The supply chain for data center components is tight across the industry.Where Things Are HeadedApplied Digital expects to place over 600 megawatts into service over the next 12 months, a significant increase from 250 megawatts over the past 12 months. The company's goal is to become the category leader in the design, build, deployment, and operation of purpose-built AI factories. It anticipates executing approximately 250 megawatts of expansion leases by year-end at materially higher pricing, potentially north of 15% increases on lease rates and longer durations. Revenue contribution from its Louisiana and Alabama campuses is expected to begin in the first half of calendar year 2027. ChronoScale is on track to reach $1 billion of ARR in 2027. Applied Digital has secured a long-term power purchase agreement with Base Electron for an approximately 1.2 gigawatt natural gas facility in North Dakota, with deliveries expected to begin in 2030, which will substantially strengthen its ability to expand in the region. The company believes it has the ability to grow its operating portfolio to 3.5 to 4 gigawatts by the end of calendar year 2030.Updates On Theme**DataBullish-Leaning Quotes (Short)"Today, we have approximately $36 billion in contracted revenue across 5 campuses, 3 states, and 2 very different geographic regions of the country." "Over the next 12 months, we expect to place over 600 megawatts into service versus 250 megawatts. Over the past 12 months." "We currently expect approximately 250 megawatts of expansion leases to be executed by year-end at materially higher pricing compared to prior leases." "With recent new contracts, ChronoScale is on track to reach $1 billion of ARR in 2027, and momentum for additional contracts continues to build." "We believe we have the ability to grow our operating portfolio to 3.5 to 4 gigawatts by the end of calendar year 2030."Bearish-Leaning Quotes (Short)"Power remains the single largest gating factor in our industry." "We are seeing more local moratoriums, tighter zoning requirements, longer permitting timelines, and greater community resistance in certain markets." "Supply chain, I think, is tight across the industry and some components more so than others." "Net loss from continuing operations attributable to common stockholders was $221 million or $7.76 per share."
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DateCommentComment TypeComment SentimentLinkPrice Reaction
2025-10-09Applied Digital's Q1 FY26 results and call reinforced its role as a leading AI data center builder, with CoreWeave expanding to 400 MW ($11B in contracted revenue) and financing secured through Macquarie. Revenue surged 84% y/y on fit-out work, confirming execution momentum and capital clarity. Investors viewed the results as proof of scale, driving a strong post-earnings rally.Earnings TranscriptBullish+21.65% (vs SPY: +23.15%)
2025-07-30Applied Digital's Q4 FY25 call was highlighted by a transformative $7B+ CoreWeave lease at its Ellendale “Polaris Forge 1” campus, with expansion options boosting visibility to multi-gigawatt scale. Management emphasized shortened build times, strong financing progress, and active hyperscaler pipeline. Analysts focused on execution and funding, but the stock jumped ~30%+ as investors cheered contracted AI-infrastructure cash flows.Earnings TranscriptBullish+23.72% (vs SPY: +25.85%)
2026-10-07Applied Digital's Q1 FY27 earnings significantly beat revenue and EPS estimates, with strong guidance for AI factory expansion and ChronoScale's $1B ARR target. Despite management's positive tone, the stock initially underperformed the broader market, reflecting investor caution on GAAP losses, high debt, and execution risks, potentially exacerbated by broader AI sector concerns.Earnings TranscriptNeutral-0.55% (vs SPY: -0.66%)
Upcoming Events2 rows
Catalyst IDEstimated TimingEstimated Date StartEstimated Date EndCatalystWhy It MattersTicker Or Theme SpecificTranscript DateSource Type
APLD_2e4074dcby the end of this calendar year2026-10-212026-12-31Applied Digital anticipates having 300 megawatts of critical IT online across North Dakota, including the initial operation of its Harwood campus.This represents a substantial increase in operational capacity in a key region, directly contributing to revenue generation and demonstrating execution capability.Ticker2026-10-07earnings_transcript
APLD_69c737b8by year-end2026-10-212026-12-31Applied Digital expects to execute approximately 250 megawatts of expansion leases at existing campuses at materially higher pricing compared to prior leases.This indicates strong demand for APLD's infrastructure and is expected to drive higher revenue per megawatt, enhancing profitability and validating the value of existing assets.Ticker2026-10-07earnings_transcript