Home / Themes / Urban Infra '24: Urban Grid & Utilities

Urban Infra '24: Urban Grid & Utilities (open on stockthemes)

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Theme no thesis · 2/5 sections · Tickers 6 with notes · 8 pending

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Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).

Overview

Hiring Trend Watchpoints

High-performing operators in this theme show clear bifurcation in workforce strategies: specialized craft labor expansion on one hand, and software/systems engineering efficiency on the other [Theme_Overview]. Grid infrastructure contractors and utilities (e.g., Quanta Services, Con Edison) are aggressively recruiting certified underground high-voltage splicers, substation electricians, and lineworkers, while investing heavily in proprietary craft training academies to combat acute labor scarcity [PWR]. Equipment and digital grid providers (e.g., Schneider Electric, Eaton) are keeping general SG&A and administrative headcounts flat or frozen while reallocating hiring capacity toward power systems engineering, ADMS/DERMS software architecture, and high-voltage factory production [SU.PA, ETN]. Theme confirmation is signaled by sustained volume in field-level craft postings, factory-level manufacturing additions in medium-voltage equipment corridors, and stable wage retention [ETN, PWR]. Deterioration would be signaled by utility hiring freezes driven by regulatory rate-case disallowances, or contractor payroll growth outstripping backlog conversion and billable revenue [PWR].

Forum Watchlist

  • reddit — r/Linemanhigh

    Field updates on utility undergrounding work, transmission line construction pace, high-voltage equipment lead times, and craft contractor availability

  • reddit — r/PowerEngineeringhigh

    Technical discussions on urban substation design, transformer saturation, ADMS/DERMS integration challenges, and metropolitan interconnection bottlenecks

  • reddit — r/electriciansmedium

    Field-level availability of medium-voltage switchgear, panelboards, commercial service entrance equipment, and urban building electrification retrofits

  • forum — Mike Holt's Forum (mikeholt.com)medium

    NEC utility code updates, urban underground duct bank specifications, grounding standards, and distributed generation interconnection hurdles

  • reddit — r/energymedium

    Policy debates on municipal utility rate cases, urban grid reliability metrics, clean heat mandates, and ratepayer affordability pushback

Industry Publications

  • Utility Dive (utilitydive.com) — Comprehensive reporting on metropolitan utility capital plans, state regulatory commission rate cases, grid hardening investments, and distributed energy integration.
  • T&D World (tdworld.com) — Specialized engineering and operational focus on electric transmission and distribution infrastructure, undergrounding projects, and substation modernization.
  • PowerGrid International (power-grid.com) — In-depth coverage of smart grid automation, advanced distribution management systems (ADMS), microgrids, and urban distribution operations.
  • Electrical Contractor Magazine (ecmag.com) — Tracks commercial and utility electrical contracting trends, craft labor availability, equipment supply chain lead times, and installation practices.
  • Smart Energy International (smart-energy.com) — Global perspective on utility digitalization, advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), European DNO frameworks, and urban multi-utility infrastructure.

Second Order Trends

First, severe urban real estate scarcity is driving rapid adoption of compact, modular infrastructure, including gas-insulated switchgear (GIS) and underground substations that expand capacity in dense downtown cores without requiring new surface land acquisition. Second, power demand from metropolitan AI data centers and edge compute hubs is colliding with urban electrification mandates (EV fleets, building heat pump transitions), forcing utilities to implement dynamic load management and software-driven peak shaving (ADMS/DERMS) to defer multi-billion-dollar physical asset replacements [SU.PA]. Third, European urban multi-utilities are pioneering district energy convergence, coupling wastewater thermal heat extraction and waste-to-energy facilities directly into district heating and electrical microgrids. Fourth, escalating ratepayer bills are triggering regulatory scrutiny across utility commissions (e.g., NY PSC, Ofgem), elevating utility demand for Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs) that unlock existing line capacity while limiting authorized rate-base inflation. Finally, multi-year lead times for medium-voltage transformers and switchgear have spurred utilities to shift from customized field construction to factory-built modular skids, reinforcing vertical integration among major EPCs and equipment OEMs [HUBB, PWR].

Search Keywords Brand Product

  • EcoStruxure Grid
  • ADMS
  • DERMS
  • Bridgeport Fittings
  • Polaris connectors
  • Aclara smart meters
  • Systems Control substations
  • PCX power skids
  • Encore Wire
  • Boyd Thermal
  • Resilient Power SST
  • Areti smart grid
  • ScottishPower Energy Networks
  • Avangrid Networks
  • Caruna Networks
  • EcoCare services
  • ETAP digital twin
  • Brightlayer
  • Square D switchgear
  • Burndy connectors
  • urban grid modernization
  • metropolitan power distribution
  • underground utility cables
  • city substation upgrades
  • urban electrification
  • grid hardening
  • district heating networks
  • utility rate base investment
  • distribution system operator

Search Keywords Policy Regulatory

  • FERC Order 2023
  • FERC Order 1920
  • IIJA grid resilience grants
  • EU Grids Action Plan
  • Ofgem RIIO-ED2
  • Ofgem RIIO-T3
  • New York PSC rate cases
  • clean heat standards
  • distribution grid codes

Search Keywords Event Phrases

  • IEEE PES T&D Conference
  • DISTRIBUTECH International
  • Enlit Europe
  • CIGRE Session Paris
  • FERC Transmission Technical Conference
  • EEI Annual Thought Leaders
  • Ofgem RIIO Determinations

Google Trend Product Category Intent

• underground power cable • medium voltage switchgear • smart meter installation • distribution transformer • substation automation • district heating system • grid management software

Google Trend Consumer Intent

• power outage map • electric bill rate increase • utility line undergrounding • EV charger grid connection • home heat pump electricity usage • net metering rates

Google Trend Macro Policy Terms

• grid modernization spending • electric grid reliability • power infrastructure investment • utility capital expenditure • clean energy grid transition

Economic Data Watch

1. U.S. Census Bureau — Value of Construction Put in Place Survey (VIP)

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field TLPWRCONS

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Measures total monthly U.S. capital expenditures put in place for electric power infrastructure, tracking the macro utility capital expenditure deployment that underpins revenue conversion for Quanta, Hubbell, and Eaton.

Signal to watch Sustained sequential and year-over-year increases in power construction spending signal accelerating project mobilization for grid modernization, undergrounding, and substation expansions.

Confidence: high

2. BLS — Producer Price Index (PPI)

Not in registryaccess=api

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Measures producer price changes for electric power transmission, control, and distribution, tracking utility tariff pass-throughs, allowed cost recoveries, and rate base inflation for grid operators such as Con Edison and National Grid.

Signal to watch Rising PPI reflects supportive regulatory rate-base adjustments and capital recovery, whereas decelerating or negative trends point to rate-case resistance and regulatory margin compression.

Confidence: low

3. BLS — Producer Price Index (PPI)

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field PCU335313335313

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks factory-gate prices for switchgear and switchboard apparatus manufacturing, directly indicating equipment pricing realization, backlog conversion margins, and supply tighteness for Eaton, Schneider Electric, and Hubbell.

Signal to watch Persistent index appreciation confirms robust pricing power and multi-year backlog margin security, while sudden flattening indicates easing equipment demand or intensifying competition.

Confidence: high

4. FRED — Global Price of Commodities

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field PCOPPUSDM

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Copper is the foundational raw material input for medium- and high-voltage distribution cables, busbars, and transformers produced by Prysmian, Hubbell, and Eaton, impacting gross margin price-cost equations.

Signal to watch Rapid surges test contractual price-escalation clauses and can cause temporary margin dilution before indexation mechanisms reset; stable prices support steady margin expansion.

Confidence: high

5. Trading Economics — National Statistical Accounts

Matched (medium)trading_economics · access=api · map_only

Metric/field United Kingdom GDP From Utilities

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Measures economic output and capital investment intensity in the UK utilities sector, tracking regulated transmission and distribution asset base delivery for National Grid and SSE under Ofgem RIIO price controls.

Signal to watch Upward trends signal accelerating grid reinforcement and capital delivery under national grid expansion mandates.

Confidence: high

Free Alt Data Watch

1. PJM Interconnection — PJM Generation & Transmission Interconnection Queue

Not in registry

Metric/field Total Capacity in Queue (MW) by Status: Under Construction vs Active

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks generation and high-load transmission interconnection requests across dense industrial and urban corridors, serving as the primary forward demand indicator for high-voltage (e.g. 765 kV) lines and substation EPC contracts for Quanta and Hubbell.

Signal to watch Acceleration of capacity moving from active study to under-construction status signals an impending inflection in utility equipment procurement and EPC backlog bookings.

Confidence: high

2. New York State Department of Public Service — Document and Matter Management (DMM)

Not in registry

Metric/field Approved Multi-Year Capital Expenditure Plan ($M) and Allowed ROE

Cadence event_driven

Why it matters Con Edison relies on NY PSC regulatory decisions to authorize multi-year rate plans and billions of dollars in urban underground distribution, substation resilience, and clean heat electrification capex.

Signal to watch Approval of proposed capital plans with stable allowed ROE and retroactive application protects regulated asset base earnings growth and affirms planned infrastructure spending schedules.

Confidence: high

3. USASpending.gov — Federal Prime Award Contracts & Grants

Matched (medium)cand_usaspending_gov_883b3088 · access=api · candidate

Metric/field Total Obligated Amount ($) under NAICS 237130 (Power and Communication Line and Related Structures Construction)

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Monitors federal grant allocations and contract obligations from IIJA and IRA programs for urban grid resilience, high-voltage interconnections, and modern distribution infrastructure.

Signal to watch Sustained growth in obligated contract values confirms federal matching fund disbursement and drives multi-year utility contracting visibility.

Confidence: high

4. USPTO PatentsView — PatentsView API

Matched (medium)cand_uspto_patentsview_75814015 · candidate

Metric/field Patent Applications and Grants Count under CPC H02J (Circuit Arrangements for Electric Power Supply or Distribution)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks commercial R&D outputs in solid-state transformers, 800V DC power architectures, and ADMS/DERMS grid software for Eaton and Schneider Electric as urban grids become increasingly decentralized and digitalized.

Signal to watch Rising grant frequency and patent citations reflect strengthening technological moats in intelligent medium-voltage distribution equipment.

Confidence: high

5. Google Trends — Google Trends Interest Over Time

Matched (medium)cand_baidu_index_2e41e3c3 · candidate

Metric/field Relative Search Volume Index for 'grid modernization' + 'substation'

Cadence daily

Why it matters Measures industry, municipal, and commercial search attention regarding electric power grid constraints, substation capacity bottlenecks, and urban electrification infrastructure needs.

Signal to watch Sustained elevation or cyclical spikes in search intensity correlate with increased municipal attention, public utility commission hearings, and commercial grid-connection urgency.

Confidence: medium

Paid Alt Data Watch

1. Industrial Info Resources — Power Transmission & Distribution Project Database

Matched (medium)industrial_info_resources_industrial_projects_capex · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Total Estimated Project Value ($M) and Construction Start Dates for Substation and Transmission Projects (>=230kV to 765kV)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Provides asset-level tracking of utility T&D projects, substations, and line extensions, establishing direct visibility into upcoming contractor awards for Quanta and order books for Hubbell.

Signal to watch A rising dollar volume of projects progressing from engineering to kickoff confirms strong forward-looking conversion into contractor billings and component deliveries.

Confidence: high

2. Coresignal — Workforce & Job Postings Intelligence

Matchedcoresignal_job_postings · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Active Job Postings Count for 'Lineman', 'Substation Technician', and 'Electrical Engineer'

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Quanta's top-line execution depends on its craft-skilled workforce (over 85,000 employees), while Hubbell and Eaton require technical labor to staff newly ramped manufacturing lines.

Signal to watch Expanding active postings accompanied by consistent hiring velocity indicate healthy operational expansion; persistent unfilled duration signals skilled-labor bottlenecks that could delay project timelines.

Confidence: high

3. Sourceability — Datalynq Component Intelligence

Matchedsourceability_component_pricing_lead_times · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Average Lead Time (Weeks) and Price Volatility Index for High-Voltage Breakers, Transformers, and Industrial Switchgear

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks factory lead times and pricing volatility for critical electrical equipment, providing an early signal on component availability and pricing leverage for Eaton, Schneider Electric, and Hubbell.

Signal to watch Extended lead times above 60-80 weeks affirm pricing power and multi-year backlog protection, while rapid lead-time normalization suggests supply catching up to demand.

Confidence: high

4. Engineering News-Record — Construction Economics Database

Matchedengineering_news_record_construction_cost_benchmark_industrials · access=file · map_only

Metric/field ENR Building Cost Index (BCI) - Skilled Labor & Materials Components

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Measures input cost inflation across skilled craft labor, structural steel, and electrical conduit, serving as a key benchmark for evaluating margin risks on EPC projects and fixed-cost utility infrastructure contracts.

Signal to watch Input cost inflation tracking in line with utility contractual escalator clauses protects margins for contractors like Quanta; sudden spikes indicate cost pressure.

Confidence: high

5. Vantor — Geospatial Construction Monitoring

Matchedvantor_geospatial_change_monitoring · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Earthworks and Structural Construction Progress Index (% Completion) for High-Voltage Urban Substations

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Utilizes high-resolution satellite imagery to provide independent, physical verification of substation grading, transformer pads, and switchyard buildout ahead of reported earnings and milestone billings.

Signal to watch Accelerated physical completion of foundations and equipment mounting yards confirms on-schedule project milestones and top-line backlog recognition for EPC contractors and OEMs.

Confidence: medium

Prediction Market Watch

1. Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffsector

Why it matters Tariffs on critical minerals directly increase input costs for copper, aluminum, and electrical steel, pressuring gross margins for electrical equipment and grid cable manufacturers including Hubbell, Prysmian, and Eaton.

Series key pm_tariff_critical_minerals

2. Will data center power-cost standards become law? (Before Jul 1, 2027)

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxratepayerlaw

Why it matters Legislation setting data center power-cost standards dictates cost-allocation between hyperscalers and utility ratepayers, impacting state public utility commission rate case approvals and grid capex for utilities like Con Edison and Iberdrola.

Series key pm_datacenter_power_cost_standards_law

3. Will Maine approve contracts for the northern Maine wind and transmission project? (Before Jul 1, 2027)

Kalshi · Confidence: medium

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmewind

Why it matters Regulatory approval for regional transmission line contracts drives major high-voltage transmission construction awards for EPC providers like Quanta Services and Northeast grid utilities like Iberdrola (Avangrid) and National Grid.

Series key pm_maine_transmission_project_approval

Theme Plain English
Urban Grid & Utilities captures companies that build, operate, and modernize the critical physical and digital utility networks powering dense metropolitan areas [Theme_Overview]. As cities electrify transportation, heating, and high-density commercial loads like urban data centers, legacy power and distribution infrastructure must be upgraded [Theme_Overview]. The theme spans regulated metropolitan electricity, gas, and district heating operators alongside specialized equipment providers, cable manufacturers, and engineering contractors hardening urban substations, undergrounding lines, and deploying smart grid intelligence [Theme_Overview].
Upcoming Catalysts20 rows
Catalyst IDEstimated TimingEstimated Date StartEstimated Date EndCatalystWhy It MattersTicker Or Theme SpecificTranscript DateSource TypeCatalyst Source
ETN_e8dc5075sequential from Q3 to Q42026-10-012026-12-31Electrical Americas segment operating margin improvement of 200-250 basis points from Q3 to Q4 2026, contributing to a strong exit rate for the year.Continued sequential margin improvement demonstrates successful operational execution, increased productivity from new facilities, and effective price/cost management, crucial for achieving the company's long-term margin targets.Ticker2026-07-31earnings_transcriptETN (ticker)
HUBB_0dab3670fourth quarter2026-10-012026-12-31Realization of approximately $20 million net benefit in Q4 2026, largely as a result of IEPA refunds.This directly impacts profitability and adjusted operating margins, particularly in Q4, and contributes to the raised full-year guidance.Ticker2026-07-28earnings_transcriptHUBB (ticker)
IBE.MC_26e169b9after summer2026-09-012026-11-30Potential upgrade to 2026 adjusted net profit guidance.An upgraded guidance would signal stronger-than-expected operational performance and improved financial outlook, positively impacting investor sentiment and stock valuation.Ticker2026-07-22earnings_transcriptIBE.MC (ticker)
IBE.MC_b1249632by the year end2026-10-012026-12-31Commissioning of 2.1 GW of new generation capacity, including over 1 GW from the East Anglia THREE offshore wind farm in the U.K.This significant capacity addition contributes directly to Iberdrola's adjusted net profit growth and reinforces its position in renewable energy, particularly offshore wind.Ticker2026-07-22earnings_transcriptIBE.MC (ticker)
IBE.MC_63158eb8in the coming months2026-07-262026-10-26Final Investment Decision (FID) for 3 GW of new generation capacity, with half of these projects located in the United States.FID signals commitment to new projects, which will drive future regulated asset base growth and renewable energy generation, supporting long-term earnings.Ticker2026-07-22earnings_transcriptIBE.MC (ticker)
IBE.MC_f69f557b700 megawatts under construction2026-07-082027-07-08Commissioning of 700 MW of new power capacity currently under construction in the U.S.This will add to Iberdrola's generation capacity in the U.S., contributing to revenue and supporting the company's growth targets.Ticker2026-04-29earnings_transcriptIBE.MC (ticker)
IBE.MC_2627d369for the coming years2026-07-082029-07-08Development of new transmission projects in Australia, starting with the first project in West Victoria.These projects represent new investment opportunities in regulated networks, contributing to the expansion of the regulated asset base and future earnings.Ticker2026-04-29earnings_transcriptIBE.MC (ticker)
IBE.MC_7f7d256cwe're already working in a 1-year rate case2026-07-012026-12-31Avangrid's filing and negotiation of a 1-year rate case in New York.The outcome of this rate case will set the tariffs and revenue for Avangrid's New York operations, significantly impacting its regulated earnings and investment capacity in the state.Ticker2026-02-25earnings_transcriptIBE.MC (ticker)
IBE.MC_b42ea8a1accelerate 2026, thanks to the commissioning2026-04-012026-12-31Commissioning of the NECEC interconnection line between Canada and Massachusetts.This project is projected to add EUR 125 million annually to group EBITDA, directly boosting Avangrid's regulated earnings and overall company profitability.Ticker2026-02-25earnings_transcriptIBE.MC (ticker)
PRY.MI_3d224b66end up slightly higher than 25% in quarter 42026-10-012026-12-31Digital Solutions EBITDA margin reaching slightly higher than 25% as a run rate in Q4 2026.This indicates significant profitability improvement in the Digital Solutions segment, driven by repricing and the shift to data center business, which is a key growth area for the company.Ticker2026-07-30earnings_transcriptPRY.MI (ticker)
PWR_ac14b71efull year 2026 financial expectations2026-01-012026-12-31Quanta provided its full-year 2026 financial expectations, including continued double-digit growth in revenues, net income and adjusted EBITDA, with the opportunity to deliver over 20% growth in adjusted EPS and a year-end backlog around $44 billion plus free cash flow guidance (midpoint about $1.8 billion).Sets the growth and profitability trajectory for 2026; achievement would support the stock's valuation via stronger backlog conversion and cash generation.Ticker2026-02-19earnings_transcriptPWR (ticker)
PWR_58ffd560over the next several years2026-02-192028-02-19Plan to invest roughly $500 million to $700 million over the next several years to advance vertical supply chain capabilities, including power transformer manufacturing facilities.Expands self-supply capacity, potentially improving project execution, reducing lead times, and supporting higher-margin, integrated 'Total Solutions' deployments.Ticker2026-02-19earnings_transcriptPWR (ticker)
SU.PA_3e6b038cAugust 2026 - December 20262026-08-012026-12-31Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) are responding to FERC's June 18, 2026 orders to justify or reform their large-load interconnection tariffs, particularly for data centers, with responses due by August 17, 2026.These actions are critical for unlocking project pipelines, accelerating construction timelines, and improving profitability for developers and contractors involved in grid expansion and renewable integration, especially given the surging demand from AI data centers.Theme2026-07-30earnings_transcriptSU.PA (ticker)
SU.PA_f1089b08Full Year 20262026-01-012026-12-31Schneider Electric's ability to achieve its full-year 2026 financial guidance, including 7-10% organic revenue growth, 10-15% adjusted EBITA growth, and 50-80 bps adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.Meeting or exceeding this guidance would positively impact investor sentiment and valuation, demonstrating successful execution of their strategy. Missing it could lead to negative sentiment and a re-evaluation of the company's growth trajectory and operational efficiency.Ticker2026-02-26earnings_transcriptSU.PA (ticker)
SU.PA_f74add8fThroughout 20262026-01-012026-12-31Continued improvement in Industrial Automation's adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026, driven by better business mix (Discrete vs. Process & Hybrid), normal productivity, and the near completion of the AVEVA subscription transition.This segment's margin improvement is crucial for overall profitability and demonstrates the effectiveness of strategic changes under new leadership. Achieving the targeted margin journey towards 18% by 2028 would be a significant positive.Ticker2026-02-26earnings_transcriptSU.PA (ticker)
SU.PA_09553309Second half of 20262026-07-012026-12-31Gross margin progression turning positive in the second half of 2026, driven by continued price increases offsetting raw material impacts and tariffs.A positive gross margin evolution would signal successful pricing power and cost management, positively impacting profitability and investor confidence. Flat to negative progression in H1 2026 could be a short-term headwind, making the H2 turnaround critical.Ticker2026-02-26earnings_transcriptSU.PA (ticker)
PRY.MI_b63c40b5expected online in January 20272027-01-012027-01-31New medium voltage capacity coming online in the U.S. and Europe.This capacity expansion will address strong demand in the Power Grid and Industrial & Construction markets, particularly for data center expansion and utility upgrades, supporting revenue and margin growth.Ticker2026-07-30earnings_transcriptPRY.MI (ticker)
PRY.MI_4780cf31in the start '27 / next quarter 1, quarter 2, '272027-01-012027-06-30New Capital Market Day to disclose the company's trajectory and organic growth drivers from 2027 through 2030/2031.This event will provide updated long-term targets and strategic insights, potentially impacting investor sentiment and valuation by outlining future growth opportunities.Ticker2026-07-30earnings_transcriptPRY.MI (ticker)
PWR_681f5f9027, 28, 29 type build2027-01-012029-12-31Gas-fired generation backlog ramp with multiple projects expected to enter backlog in 2027–2029 as the company expands its 'Total Solutions' platform into generation.Could meaningfully boost revenue and earnings in the late 2020s; execution risk and capital intensity could affect margins and investor sentiment.Ticker2026-02-19earnings_transcriptPWR (ticker)
HUBB_9a87d382March 4, 20272027-03-042027-03-04Hubbell Investor Day to share details on long-term strategy and outlook.This event provides a platform for management to articulate future growth drivers, capital allocation, and strategic priorities, potentially impacting investor sentiment and valuation.Ticker2026-07-28earnings_transcriptHUBB (ticker)

Constituents

  • ETNT3
    — Eaton Corporation plc
  • — Hubbell Incorporated
  • — Iberdrola, S.A.
  • — Prysmian S.p.A.
  • PWRT3
    — Quanta Services, Inc.
  • — Schneider Electric S.E.
  • 2638.HKT3
    · no notes yet
  • A2A.MIT3
    · no notes yet
  • ACE.MIT3
    · no notes yet
  • EDT3
    · no notes yet
  • ENEL.MIT3
    · no notes yet
  • EOAN.XETRAT3
    · no notes yet
  • NG.LSET3
    · no notes yet
  • SSE.LSET3
    · no notes yet