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TrumpPolicy PreElection Long '24: I-Banking

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Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).

Bull / Bear Details

A potential Trump presidency signals a return to financial deregulation, capital gains tax certainty, and pro-business sentiment—fueling M&A, IPOs, and restruct

Thesis

A potential Trump presidency signals a return to financial deregulation, capital gains tax certainty, and pro-business sentiment—fueling M&A, IPOs, and restructuring. Independent advisory firms like EVR, PIPR, and JEF benefit from both rising deal volumes and client preference for discretion during volatile or politically sensitive transactions. Rate normalization, PE dry powder deployment, and a pivot from regulatory overhangs under Biden combine to create an environment conducive to high-margin investment banking advisory work.

Bull case

  • Regulatory rollback: Trump win expected to ease banking & M&A-related rules, favoring dealmaking

  • Rate stability: Improved visibility into capital costs unlocks IPO and LBO pipelines

  • Tax certainty: TCJA extension clarity reduces urgency for 2024 sell-offs but boosts '25 activity confidence

Bear case

  • Blue wave: Higher cap gains and regulatory scrutiny under Dem congress suppresses transaction activity

  • Risk-off macro: Recession fears or geopolitical shocks delay corporate transactions

  • PE discipline: Persistent bid-ask spreads or exit bottlenecks limit deal volume recovery despite policy backdrop

Key Metrics3 rows
MetricCadenceWhat It SignalsUpdate Source
North American M&A Deal Volume & ValueWeeklyDirect read on EVR and PIPR activity pipelines, especially for strategic M&AGoogle_Sheets
Private Equity Exit & Fundraising TrendsQuarterlySignals PE confidence and liquidity cycle—key for dealmaking and fee flowGoogle_Sheets
U.S. IPO Filing and Pricing ActivityWeeklyLeading indicator of ECM rebound, relevant for JEF and PIPRGoogle_Sheets

Constituents

  • EVRT3
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  • HLIT3
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  • JEFT3
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  • LAZT3
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  • MCT3
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  • PIPRT3
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  • PJTT3
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  • PWPT3
    · no notes yet