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TrumpPolicy PreElection Long '24: I-Banking
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Theme thesis · 2/5 sections · Tickers 0 with notes · 8 pending
Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).
Bull / Bear DetailsA potential Trump presidency signals a return to financial deregulation, capital gains tax certainty, and pro-business sentiment—fueling M&A, IPOs, and restruct
Thesis
A potential Trump presidency signals a return to financial deregulation, capital gains tax certainty, and pro-business sentiment—fueling M&A, IPOs, and restructuring. Independent advisory firms like EVR, PIPR, and JEF benefit from both rising deal volumes and client preference for discretion during volatile or politically sensitive transactions. Rate normalization, PE dry powder deployment, and a pivot from regulatory overhangs under Biden combine to create an environment conducive to high-margin investment banking advisory work.
Bull case
Regulatory rollback: Trump win expected to ease banking & M&A-related rules, favoring dealmaking
Rate stability: Improved visibility into capital costs unlocks IPO and LBO pipelines
Tax certainty: TCJA extension clarity reduces urgency for 2024 sell-offs but boosts '25 activity confidence
Bear case
Blue wave: Higher cap gains and regulatory scrutiny under Dem congress suppresses transaction activity
Risk-off macro: Recession fears or geopolitical shocks delay corporate transactions
PE discipline: Persistent bid-ask spreads or exit bottlenecks limit deal volume recovery despite policy backdrop
Key Metrics
| Metric | Cadence | What It Signals | Update Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| North American M&A Deal Volume & Value | Weekly | Direct read on EVR and PIPR activity pipelines, especially for strategic M&A | Google_Sheets |
| Private Equity Exit & Fundraising Trends | Quarterly | Signals PE confidence and liquidity cycle—key for dealmaking and fee flow | Google_Sheets |
| U.S. IPO Filing and Pricing Activity | Weekly | Leading indicator of ECM rebound, relevant for JEF and PIPR | Google_Sheets |
Constituents
- EVRT3· no notes yet
- HLIT3· no notes yet
- JEFT3· no notes yet
- LAZT3· no notes yet
- MCT3· no notes yet
- PIPRT3· no notes yet
- PJTT3· no notes yet
- PWPT3· no notes yet