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Tech Trends '25: Content Development (open on stockthemes)

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Theme thesis · 3/5 sections · Tickers 8 with notes · 6 pending

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Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).

Bull / Bear Details

Generative artificial intelligence is transforming digital content creation by automating image generation, video editing, animation, 3D modeling, game developm

Thesis

Generative artificial intelligence is transforming digital content creation by automating image generation, video editing, animation, 3D modeling, game development, and advertising production. Creative software platforms, digital asset providers, and production technology companies can monetize AI through premium tools, subscriptions, licensing, and more efficient workflows. Lower production costs could dramatically expand content creation, although commoditization, intellectual property disputes, and disruption of traditional creative businesses create significant risks.

Bull case

  • AI Lowers Content Production Costs: Generative image, video, audio, and 3D technologies reduce the time and expertise required to produce professional content, expanding the creator market and increasing demand for accessible production platforms and automated workflows.

  • Professional Creative Platforms Monetize AI: Established creative software vendors can integrate generation, editing, localization, and production automation into existing products, supporting premium subscriptions, usage-based pricing, enterprise contracts, and higher customer engagement.

  • Explosion in Digital Content Demand: Personalized advertising, short-form video, user-generated games, localized marketing, and interactive experiences increase demand for scalable creative production, potentially expanding the market for AI-enabled content development tools and infrastructure.

Bear case

  • AI Commoditizes Creative Software and Assets: Rapidly improving foundation models and inexpensive standalone generation tools could reduce differentiation, undermine subscription pricing, and displace traditional stock media and creative software products.

  • Copyright and Intellectual Property Restrictions: Litigation, licensing disputes, training-data restrictions, deepfake regulation, and uncertainty around ownership of generated content could increase compliance costs and limit commercial deployment.

  • Content Oversupply and Business Model Disruption: Abundant low-cost generated media could reduce the economic value of creative assets, intensify competition, weaken freelance and agency pricing, and make it difficult for platforms to convert increased content production into higher profits.

Google_Sheets

Overview

Hiring Trend Watchpoints

High-performing content development operators are aggressively restructuring technical headcount toward multimodal AI inference optimization, model distillation, and low-latency generation pipelines, while restraining legacy seat-sales and general administrative growth. Key trends include: (1) Scaling specialized engineering for in-house fine-tuning and model distillation to curb third-party API compute costs (exemplified by Wix engineering Base1 and MiniMax scaling multimodal H3 models); (2) Replacing manual, entry-level production and graphic layout roles with prompt/workflow engineers and automation architects across agency networks (evidenced by Omnicom's severance repositioning and Publicis's AI-driven delivery automation); (3) Transitioning software sales organizations away from traditional seat expansion toward product-led growth (PLG) specialists focused on freemium conversion and consumption-based credit adoption (as seen at Adobe and HubSpot). Signals confirming execution: expanding requisitions for synthetic data engineers, procedural generation specialists, and commercially safe IP compliance architects alongside improving gross margins. Signals of deterioration: recurring headcount additions in manual digital production services, freezes in AI research hiring, or rising technical attrition to frontier foundation model labs.

Forum Watchlist

  • subreddit — r/StableDiffusionHigh

    Community adoption of generative video and image models, open-source weight performance vs commercial closed models, and workflow automation tooling.

  • subreddit — r/gamedevHigh

    Developer sentiment regarding AI-assisted 3D asset pipelines, procedural generation tools, Unity 7 beta reception, and engine pricing models.

  • subreddit — r/premiereMedium

    Video editor reactions to Adobe Firefly Video integration, text-based editing, generative extend capabilities, and timeline stability.

  • web_forum — blenderartists.orgMedium

    3D modeling and VFX artist discussions on AI plugin integration, procedural generation nodes, and rendering pipeline efficiency.

  • subreddit — r/webdevMedium

    Adoption patterns of AI vibe coding, natural-language web and application builders (e.g., Wix Base44, Lovable), and framework displacement.

  • subreddit — r/advertisingLow

    Creative agency feedback on automated campaign generation, synthetic media production budgets, and client demand for commercial indemnity.

Industry Publications

  • Digiday (digiday.com) — Comprehensive trade analysis of digital marketing technology, agency creative automation workflows, and publisher monetization strategies.
  • VFX Voice (vfxvoice.com) — Official publication of the Visual Effects Society providing deep technical coverage of visual effects, virtual production, and real-time engine pipelines.
  • GamesIndustry.biz (gamesindustry.biz) — Authoritative reporting on game engine development, interactive entertainment tools, developer platform economics, and studio technology adoption.
  • Creative Review (creativereview.co.uk) — Premier design and commercial advertising publication exploring the operational impact of generative tools on creative professionals.
  • Adweek (adweek.com) — Core industry source tracking creative agency holding companies, marketing content supply chains, and brand generative AI deployments.

Second Order Trends

Several second-order dynamics are redefining the content development landscape: (1) Natural Language Application Development & Vibe Coding: The transition from visual drag-and-drop website design to conversational, prompt-driven full-stack software development (e.g., Wix BASE44) that expands software creation to non-technical prosumers; (2) Proprietary Small/Domain-Specific Models for Margin Defense: Creative platforms are shifting from costly hyperscaler foundation-model API dependencies to custom distilled models (e.g., Wix Base1, Unity runtime ad models) to expand gross margins from 0% toward 60%; (3) Evolution from Feature-Based SaaS to Autonomous Multi-Agent Orchestration: Workflows are evolving from isolated generation prompts into autonomous agentic pipelines (Adobe Creative Agent, HubSpot Agent Builder, Omnicom Omni Agentic Layer) that coordinate ideation, drafting, localization, and multi-channel publishing; (4) Bifurcation Around Commercial Indemnity: Enterprise enterprise production is consolidating around clean, legally indemnified datasets (Adobe Firefly, Shutterstock, Getty), leaving un-indemnified open models restricted to indie creators; (5) Hyper-Abundant Content Causing Discovery Bottlenecks: Exponentially higher volume of synthetic media is shifting economic value from content creation itself toward discovery, real-time personalization, and ad-tech distribution networks (e.g., Unity Vector ad network).

Search Keywords Brand Product

  • Adobe Firefly
  • Adobe Express
  • Photoshop Generative Fill
  • Premiere Pro AI
  • Adobe GenStudio
  • Unity Vector
  • Unity 7
  • Roblox Cube
  • Wix Harmony
  • Base44
  • HubSpot Breeze
  • Omni AI
  • Hailuo AI
  • MiniMax H3
  • Filmora AI
  • Meitu AI
  • Autodesk Forma
  • Weta FX
  • Firefly Video Model
  • Creative Cloud
  • generative AI content creation
  • AI video generation
  • AI 3D asset generation
  • vibe coding
  • agentic creative workflows
  • content supply chain automation
  • real-time 3D engine
  • synthetic media generation
  • creative software automation

Search Keywords Policy Regulatory

  • EU AI Act copyright transparency
  • AI training data copyright litigation
  • commercial indemnity AI generation
  • deepfake labeling regulations
  • fair use AI model training

Search Keywords Event Phrases

  • Adobe MAX 2026
  • Unity Unite 2026
  • Roblox Developers Conference 2026
  • Cannes Lions 2026
  • SIGGRAPH 2026

Google Trend Product Category Intent

• Adobe Firefly • Photoshop AI • Premiere AI video • Unity 7 beta • Wix Base44 • Filmora AI video editor • Hailuo AI video generator • HubSpot Breeze AI • Roblox AI studio • Firefly text to video

Google Trend Consumer Intent

• how to make AI video • AI image generator commercial use • vibe coding website • best AI video generator • AI 3D model generator for games • generate marketing copy AI • create website with AI prompt

Google Trend Macro Policy Terms

• AI copyright law • AI generated content copyright • EU AI Act compliance

Economic Data Watch

1. FRED — National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA)

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field Private Fixed Investment: Nonresidential: Intellectual Property Products: Software (B985RC1Q027SBEA)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters This metric directly reflects business investment in software, including creative and AI-powered tools, indicating enterprise adoption and spending trends relevant to theme constituents like Adobe, Autodesk, Wix, and HubSpot.

Signal to watch Rising investment signals increased adoption of professional creative and productivity software, which is bullish for the theme.

Confidence: high

2. FRED — Retail Sales: Advertising Services

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field Receipts for Advertising, Public Relations, and Related Services

Cadence monthly

Why it matters This measures overall spending on advertising and related services, which is a key revenue driver for companies like Publicis, Omnicom, HubSpot, Getty, and Shutterstock, especially as AI transforms content production for campaigns.

Signal to watch Consistent or accelerating growth in advertising receipts suggests a healthy demand environment for marketing services, benefiting ad agencies and content providers.

Confidence: low

3. FRED — Personal Consumption Expenditures

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field Personal Consumption Expenditures: Software (TXPCEGONPI)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks consumer spending on software, which is relevant for companies offering creative applications, gaming platforms, and digital tools to individual users and small businesses, such as Adobe, Unity, Roblox, Wix, Wondershare, and Meitu.

Signal to watch Increasing consumer spending on software indicates growing demand for digital tools and content creation capabilities, supporting the theme's growth.

Confidence: high

4. FRED — Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field Industrial Production: Manufacturing (NAICS) (IPGMFN)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Reflects the overall health and expansion of the manufacturing sector, which is an end-market for 3D design and production software from companies like Autodesk and Unity (for industrial digital twins).

Signal to watch Strong manufacturing production growth suggests increased demand for design, simulation, and digital content tools in industrial applications.

Confidence: high

5. U.S. Copyright Office — Copyright Public Records

Not in registry

Metric/field Number of copyright registrations (total and by category)

Cadence annual

Why it matters Monitors the volume of content being formally registered, which can indirectly reflect creative output and intellectual property activity, especially relevant given the theme's focus on content creation and potential copyright challenges with AI.

Signal to watch A sustained increase in copyright registrations could indicate a robust creative economy, while significant shifts in categories might signal AI's impact on content types.

Confidence: medium

Free Alt Data Watch

1. Google Trends — Search Interest

Not in registry

Metric/field Search interest for 'Generative AI' (Worldwide, Past 90 days, Web Search)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Directly indicates public and professional interest in the core technology driving the theme, reflecting awareness, adoption, and potential market expansion for AI-powered content development tools.

Signal to watch Rising search interest is bullish, indicating increasing awareness and potential demand for generative AI solutions.

Confidence: high

2. GitHub — Open Source Project Activity

Not in registry

Metric/field Stars, commits, and contributors for leading generative AI repositories (e.g., Stable Diffusion, Hugging Face Transformers)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Tracks developer engagement and innovation in the open-source generative AI ecosystem, which can influence commercial offerings and the pace of technological advancement for companies like MiniMax and those integrating open-source models.

Signal to watch Increased activity (stars, commits, contributors) suggests rapid development and community interest, indicating a vibrant and evolving AI landscape.

Confidence: low

3. Company Careers Pages (e.g., LinkedIn Jobs, Indeed) — Job Postings

Matched (medium)engine_advertising_brand_tracking · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Number of job postings mentioning 'AI Engineer', 'Machine Learning Engineer', 'Prompt Engineer' at Adobe, Unity, Autodesk, Wix, HubSpot

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Indicates internal investment and hiring priorities in AI development across key theme constituents, signaling their commitment to advancing AI capabilities and product roadmaps.

Signal to watch Consistent or increasing job postings for AI-related roles suggest sustained investment in AI innovation and expansion of AI-powered offerings.

Confidence: medium

4. Reddit (r / gamedev, r / Unity3D, r / StableDiffusion) — Developer/Creator Sentiment and Discussion Volume

Not in registry

Metric/field Post volume and sentiment analysis related to 'AI game development', 'Unity AI', 'generative art tools'

Cadence daily

Why it matters Provides qualitative insights into developer and creator adoption, challenges, and excitement surrounding AI tools in content creation, directly impacting companies like Unity, Roblox, Adobe, and those in digital asset creation.

Signal to watch Positive sentiment and increasing discussion volume indicate growing interest and successful integration of AI tools, while negative sentiment or declining volume could signal issues.

Confidence: medium

5. USPTO PatentsView — Patent Grants and Applications

Not in registry

Metric/field Number of patent grants/applications by assignee (e.g., Adobe, Unity, Autodesk) and CPC class related to AI/generative media (e.g., G06N3/08, G06T7/00)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks innovation and intellectual property protection efforts by theme constituents and the broader industry in AI and generative content, addressing a key bear case around IP restrictions.

Signal to watch Increased patent activity in relevant AI/generative media categories by theme companies is bullish, indicating competitive differentiation and future product pipelines.

Confidence: high

Paid Alt Data Watch

1. SpendHound — B2B SaaS Procurement Intelligence

Matched (medium)spendhound_b2b_saas_ai_vendor_spend · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Enterprise spending on 'Adobe Creative Cloud', 'Autodesk software', 'HubSpot CRM' (global, quarterly)

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Provides direct, granular insight into actual enterprise investment in flagship creative, design, and marketing software suites, indicating adoption rates and budget allocation for AI-enhanced tools.

Signal to watch Increasing enterprise spend on these platforms suggests strong business adoption and monetization of AI-powered features.

Confidence: high

2. Sensor Tower — App Intelligence

Matched (medium)sensor_tower_mobile_app_downloads_usage · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Monthly Active Users (MAU) and Downloads for 'Wix', 'Meitu', 'Wondershare FilmoraGo', 'Roblox' (global, mobile apps)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Measures consumer and prosumer engagement and growth for mobile-first content creation and gaming platforms, directly impacting revenue for companies like Wix, Meitu, Wondershare, and Roblox.

Signal to watch Rising MAU and downloads indicate strong user acquisition and platform stickiness, which is bullish for these companies.

Confidence: high

3. Similarweb — Web Traffic & Engagement

Matchedsimilarweb_website_traffic_engagement · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Website traffic (unique visitors, page views, time on site) for 'adobe.com/firefly', 'unity.com/ai', 'wix.com/ai', 'shutterstock.com/ai'

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Gauges interest and engagement with specific AI-powered products and services offered by theme constituents, providing early indicators of product success and market traction.

Signal to watch Increasing web traffic and engagement metrics for AI-specific product pages suggest strong market interest and potential for monetization.

Confidence: high

4. Consumer Edge — Credit/Debit Card Transaction Data

Matched (medium)affinity_solutions_consumer_card_transactions · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Consumer spending on 'Adobe Creative Cloud subscriptions', 'Unity game purchases', 'Roblox in-app purchases' (US, monthly)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Provides direct insight into consumer monetization of creative software, gaming platforms, and user-generated content, reflecting actual revenue generation from individual users.

Signal to watch Consistent or accelerating growth in consumer spending on these services is bullish, indicating successful monetization strategies.

Confidence: high

5. CloudPrice — Cloud VM Pricing

Matchedcloudprice_cloud_compute_pricing_technology · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Spot and on-demand pricing for GPU-accelerated compute instances (e.g., NVIDIA A100, H100) across major cloud providers (AWS, GCP, Azure)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Monitors the cost of AI compute resources, which is a significant input cost for companies developing and deploying generative AI models (e.g., MiniMax, Wix with Base1, Adobe Firefly). Fluctuations impact gross margins.

Signal to watch Stable or declining GPU compute costs are bullish, indicating improved profitability for AI-driven services, while rising costs could pressure margins.

Confidence: high

Prediction Market Watch

1. When will AI score above 65 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index? (Any AI model from any lab)

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaascore

Why it matters The advancement and capability of AI models are fundamental to generative AI in content development. Higher AI capabilities, as indicated by this score, could enhance the tools offered by theme constituents like Adobe, Unity, Roblox, Autodesk, Wondershare, Meitu, Getty, Shutterstock, Wix, HubSpot, Publicis, Omnicom, and MiniMax, driving adoption and monetization of AI-powered creative tools.

Series key kalshi_ai_score_65

2. Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?

Polymarket · Confidence: high

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-text-to-image-ai-end-of-october

Why it matters Text-to-image AI is a core component of generative AI in content development, directly impacting companies like Adobe (Firefly), Getty (generative AI services), Shutterstock (generative AI content tools), and Meitu (generative content tools). Leadership in this specific AI capability can influence product differentiation, market share, and monetization for these theme constituents.

Series key pm_best_text_to_image_ai

3. Which companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaistreamseries

Why it matters This market directly relates to the commercialization and market acceptance of AI-generated content, which is central to the 'Content Development' theme. If major companies release such series, it validates the market for AI-generated media and could increase demand for the AI-powered tools and platforms provided by theme constituents (e.g., Unity for 3D, Adobe for editing, etc.).

Series key kalshi_ai_generated_series

Theme Plain English
Generative artificial intelligence is transforming digital content creation across imaging, video editing, 3D modeling, interactive gaming, web development, and advertising production. Creative software vendors, digital asset providers, and marketing agencies are integrating foundation models and automated workflows to lower production costs and expand creator funnels. High-performing operators monetize this shift via premium subscription tiers, enterprise workflow automation, and proprietary model training while defending against open-source commoditization and copyright friction.

LLM_Approved · Updated 2026-10-21

Upcoming Catalysts14 rows
Catalyst IDEstimated TimingEstimated Date StartEstimated Date EndCatalystWhy It MattersTicker Or Theme SpecificTranscript DateSource TypeCatalyst Source
ADBE_7e0610afexpect the transaction to close in Q42026-09-012026-11-30Completion of the acquisition of Topaz Labs, adding state-of-the-art AI enhancement models to Adobe's creative portfolio.This acquisition will integrate advanced AI technology across Adobe Firefly services and Creative Cloud apps, enhancing quality and capabilities for creators and enterprises.Ticker2026-09-10earnings_transcriptADBE (ticker)
ADBE_e0330604Our goal is to have Adobe's next CEO in place. To put their stamp on planning for fiscal 27 and beyond.2026-09-012026-11-30Appointment of Adobe's next permanent CEO.This is a significant leadership transition that will shape Adobe's strategic direction for fiscal year 2027 and beyond. A strong appointment could boost investor confidence and ensure continuity in execution.Ticker2026-06-11earnings_transcriptADBE (ticker)
OMC_0db72962$900 million of these savings in 20262026-01-012026-12-31Realization of $900 million in annual run-rate synergies in 2026, stemming from the Interpublic acquisition, with total expected synergies doubling to $1.5 billion over 30 months.These synergies are expected to significantly improve profitability and operational efficiency, impacting margins and investor sentiment. The actual achievement of these savings and any potential reinvestment could affect reported earnings.Ticker2026-02-18earnings_transcriptOMC (ticker)
OMC_2803dcceover the next 12 months2026-02-192027-02-18Completion of sales or exits of non-strategic or underperforming operations, representing approximately $2.5 billion in annual revenue, as part of Omnicom's portfolio realignment strategy.These dispositions are expected to streamline the portfolio, improve profitability by exiting businesses with an approximate 10% EBITA margin, and position Omnicom for stronger, sustainable growth, impacting future financial results and valuation.Ticker2026-02-18earnings_transcriptOMC (ticker)
OMC_2fc9e1b2during the balance of 20262026-02-192026-12-31Repurchase of an additional $500 million to $1 billion of shares during the balance of 2026, as part of the authorized $5 billion share repurchase program.Share repurchases reduce the outstanding share count, which can boost earnings per share and demonstrate management's confidence, positively impacting investor sentiment and valuation. The exact timing and amount could influence market reaction.Ticker2026-02-18earnings_transcriptOMC (ticker)
PUB.PA_a62575d7before the end of the year2026-07-182026-12-31Closing of the LiveRamp acquisition.This acquisition will enable Publicis Groupe to enter a new addressable market, data co-creation, strengthening its interconnected ecosystem and driving agentic transformation for clients.Ticker2026-07-16earnings_transcriptPUB.PA (ticker)
U_9a620c6aQ4 of 20262026-10-012026-12-31Beta launch of Unity 7, an open collaborative platform enabling developers, artists, producers, and coding agents to work together.This beta release will provide initial insights into the adoption and impact of Unity's next-generation software, which is anticipated to significantly expand the creation of interactive entertainment.Ticker2026-08-06earnings_transcriptU (ticker)
WIX_def59a6fwe expect to complete the large majority of our $2,000,000,000 repurchase program this year. We plan to do this as quickly and aggressively as we can.2026-03-072026-12-31Completion of the $2 billion share repurchase program.This strategic action signals management's strong conviction in the company's valuation and future prospects, potentially enhancing shareholder value and boosting investor confidence.Ticker2026-03-04earnings_transcriptWIX (ticker)
WIX_560ff87cWe anticipate non-GAAP gross margin for Base 44 to improve sequentially throughout 2026 as we proactively optimize AI model usage and costs primarily through enhancing prompt caching, batching requests, focused model routing, and more favorable pricing from LLM providers. We expect Base 44 gross margin to increase as the year progresses.2026-03-072026-12-31Sequential improvement in Base 44's non-GAAP gross margin due to optimization of AI model usage and costs.Improved margins for Base 44 are crucial for its profitability and overall company financial performance, addressing investor concerns about the impact of AI compute costs on profitability.Ticker2026-03-04earnings_transcriptWIX (ticker)
ADBE_5e7bddc3in November in Miami Beach2026-11-012026-11-30Adobe MAX, the world's largest creativity conference, showcasing breakthrough innovations.The conference will unveil new capabilities in Creative Cloud, Firefly, and Firefly Enterprise, all powered by Agentic AI, which could drive significant user interest and product adoption.Ticker2026-09-10earnings_transcriptADBE (ticker)
U_56bdf3e0November2026-11-012026-11-30Unity plans to pay off its 2026 convertible debt.This action will delever Unity's balance sheet, transitioning the company to a net cash position and providing significant flexibility for future capital allocation.Ticker2026-08-06earnings_transcriptU (ticker)
ADBE_54bcaeeeEffective December 1st2026-12-012026-12-01Anil S. Chakravarthy officially becomes Adobe's President and Chief Executive Officer and joins the board of directors.This leadership transition marks a new strategic direction for Adobe in the 'agentic era' of software, potentially influencing product development and market strategy.Ticker2026-09-10earnings_transcriptADBE (ticker)
U_8263b60eQ1 of '272027-01-012027-03-31Full commercial release of Unity 7, a new generation of software designed for open collaboration and AI-powered development.This is expected to be Unity's most impactful release, fundamentally changing game creation, expanding the addressable market, and driving increased platform usage and downstream revenue.Ticker2026-08-06earnings_transcriptU (ticker)
OMC_49e60a71Our next maturity in July of 2027 is now classified as current, which we will address in due course2027-07-012027-07-31Resolution of the $1.4 billion, 3.6% senior notes debt maturity in July 2027.How Omnicom addresses this maturity (e.g., refinancing terms, repayment) could impact interest expense and financial flexibility.Ticker2026-10-20earnings_transcriptOMC (ticker)

LLM_Approved · Updated 2026-10-23

Constituents

  • ADBET2
    — Adobe Inc.
  • HUBST2
    — HubSpot, Inc.
  • OMCT2
    — Omnicom Group Inc.
  • PUB.PAT2
    — Publicis Groupe S.A.
  • 0100.HKT3
    — MiniMax Group Inc
  • RBLXT3
    — Roblox Corporation
  • UT3
    — Unity Software Inc.
  • WIXT3
    — Wix.com Ltd.
  • 1357.HKT3
    · no notes yet
  • 300624.SHET3
    · no notes yet
  • ADSKT3
    · no notes yet
  • FVRRT3
    · no notes yet
  • GETYT3
    · no notes yet
  • SSTKT3
    · no notes yet