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Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).

Bull / Bear Details

Persistent Middle East instability, notably the Strait of Hormuz closure since Feb 2026, severely disrupts global energy, fertilizer, and shipping. Coupled with

Thesis

Persistent Middle East instability, notably the Strait of Hormuz closure since Feb 2026, severely disrupts global energy, fertilizer, and shipping. Coupled with confirmed 'Super El Niño' weather patterns for 2026-2027 and robust demand for key food commodities, this creates a compelling bullish outlook for food commodity prices.

Bull case

Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and regional instability, particularly the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, are causing severe disruptions to global energy, fertilizer, and shipping markets, dramatically increasing agricultural production and transportation costs.
Adverse weather patterns and climate-related events, specifically the confirmed high potential for a 'Super El Niño' in 2026-2027, pose significant risks to global crop yields, potentially placing it among the strongest in recorded history.
Sustained and robust demand for key food commodities, particularly corn for ethanol production driven by elevated oil prices and biofuel mandates, combined with export restrictions and strategic stockpiling, will further tighten global food commodity markets.

Bear case

A significant de-escalation or resolution of major geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to a normalization of supply chains, a reduction in energy and fertilizer costs, and a decrease in the risk premium embedded in food commodity prices.
A stronger-than-anticipated rebound in global agricultural production, driven by widespread favorable weather conditions in major growing regions or increased planting incentives, could alleviate current supply shortages and exert downward pressure on prices.
A substantial global economic slowdown or recession could significantly dampen overall demand for food commodities, potentially offsetting supply-side constraints and leading to price declines, exacerbated by high fuel and shipping costs impacting economic activity.

Overview

Hiring Trend Watchpoints

High-performing operators in this theme are expected to increase hiring in roles focused on navigating complex geopolitical landscapes, climate-related agricultural challenges, and advanced supply chain resilience. Specifically, we anticipate a rise in demand for: **Supply Chain Resilience & Optimization Specialists** to manage diversified sourcing, scenario planning for trade route disruptions (e.g., Strait of Hormuz), and inventory optimization; **Geopolitical Risk Analysts** with expertise in Middle Eastern affairs and their impact on global commodity flows; **Climate Adaptation Scientists/Agronomists** focusing on developing and implementing climate-resilient crop varieties and farming practices, especially given the 'Super El Niño' forecasts; **Biofuel Technology Engineers** and **Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Experts** to drive efficiency in ethanol production and capitalize on incentives like the 45Z tax credits, including specialists in EPA Class 6 well permitting. We also expect demand for **Commodity Traders/Analysts** with deep knowledge of fertilizer (urea) and grain markets.Confirmation of theme execution: Increased job postings for these specialized roles, particularly in regions impacted by or contributing to the supply chain (e.g., Gulf Coast for shipping, Midwest for agriculture, South America for fertilizer production). Evidence of internal upskilling programs in these areas.Warning of deterioration: A decline in specialized hiring, a shift towards generalist roles, or a focus on cost-cutting through workforce reductions in these critical areas would signal weakening conviction in the theme's drivers.

Forum Watchlist

Forum — Emergency Food Security Practitioners ForumHigh
Discussions on emergency food security programming, best practices for supply chain resilience in crisis contexts, and adaptation strategies for vulnerable regions, particularly in light of Middle East disruptions.
Subreddit — r/geopoliticsHigh
Real-time analysis and discussions on Middle East conflicts, maritime security (Strait of Hormuz), and their broader implications for global trade and commodity markets.
Twitter/X — @FAOHigh
Official updates, reports, and analyses on global food prices, food security, crop forecasts, and policy recommendations from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
LinkedIn Group — Global Supply Chain ProfessionalsMedium
Discussions among supply chain practitioners on logistics challenges, freight costs, rerouting strategies, and technological solutions in response to global disruptions.
Forum — Barchart Commodity ForumsHigh
Trader sentiment, price action analysis, and fundamental discussions on wheat, corn, sugar, soybean oil, and urea futures markets.
Subreddit — r/agricultureMedium
Farmer perspectives on crop conditions, input costs (fertilizer, fuel), weather impacts (El Niño), and local market dynamics.
Twitter/X — @NOAAClimateHigh
Updates and forecasts on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, global weather patterns, and their potential impact on agricultural regions.
Forum — FreightWaves ForumMedium
Discussions on global shipping rates, port congestion, vessel rerouting, and logistics bottlenecks affecting commodity transport.

Second Order Trends

Several second-order trends are intensifying within the 'Supply Shock in MidEast Long '26: Food Commodities' theme. Firstly, there's an **Accelerated Investment in Domestic Food Production & Strategic Reserves**, as nations prioritize self-sufficiency and build stockpiles to buffer against global supply shocks and geopolitical uncertainties, exemplified by Adecoagro's strategic acquisition of Profertil to become a major regional urea producer. This is further fueled by **Commodity Nationalism**, where countries implement export restrictions and protectionist policies to secure domestic supply. Secondly, the **Shift Towards Biofuels & Renewable Energy** is gaining momentum, driven by high oil prices and policy incentives like the 45Z clean fuel tax credits, leading to increased demand for agricultural feedstocks (e.g., corn for ethanol, as seen with REX's expansion) and a growing focus on **Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) in Agriculture** to reduce carbon intensity. Thirdly, **Climate-Smart Agriculture Adoption** is accelerating, moving beyond just resilience to active mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the development of drought-resistant crops and precision agriculture, in response to confirmed extreme weather events like the 'Super El Niño'. Lastly, **Digitalization of Supply Chains** is becoming critical for enhanced visibility, risk management, and optimizing logistics in an increasingly volatile global trade environment.

Search Keywords Brand Product

wheat futures price
corn futures price
sugar commodity price
soybean oil price
urea fertilizer price
ammonia fertilizer price
phosphate fertilizer price
ethanol fuel price
distillers grains price
food commodity prices
global grain outlook
cereal prices
vegetable oil prices
biofuel feedstock prices
sustainable aviation fuel feedstock
carbon capture technology agriculture
Class 6 injection well permit
renewable diesel feedstock

Search Keywords Policy Regulatory

45Z clean fuel credit regulations
Illinois carbon pipeline moratorium
Strait of Hormuz maritime security
food export restrictions
biofuel mandates impact
fertilizer export bans
RFS Renewable Fuel Standard
Class 6 injection well permit EPA
domestic food production policy
strategic food reserves policy
US Renewable Volume Obligation

Search Keywords Event Phrases

Middle East conflict shipping disruption
Super El Niño agriculture impact
global food supply chain resilience
fertilizer supply shock
Strait of Hormuz closure economic impact
Iran war food security
crop yield forecasts
FAO Food Price Index trends
carbon capture project delays Illinois
ethanol plant expansion updates
Red Sea shipping attacks
Viterra integration progress Bunge

Google Trend Product Category Intent

• wheat futures price • corn futures today • sugar price forecast • soybean oil outlook • urea price trend • ethanol price per gallon • food commodity index • global fertilizer prices • carbon capture investment • palm oil futures • rice futures • renewable diesel feedstock • sustainable aviation fuel production

Google Trend Consumer Intent

• food inflation outlook • grocery prices rising • food supply chain issues • cost of food 2026 • Middle East conflict impact on food • El Niño weather agriculture • fertilizer cost for farmers • sustainable food practices • climate change food security • biofuel impact on food prices • food security concerns

Google Trend Macro Policy Terms

• food security policy • agricultural trade policy • biofuel policy news • Strait of Hormuz trade impact • carbon capture legislation • renewable fuel mandates • climate resilience agriculture • food export bans • RVO policy update

Top datasets to track

1. FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) Type: Economic Data · Provider: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: An increasing FFPI indicates rising global food costs, directly supporting the 'Supply Shock in MidEast Long '26: Food Commodities' theme. The index reflects the combined impact of geopolitical disruptions, climate events, and demand shifts on a basket of food commodities. Suggested query: FAO Food Price Index latest report Confidence: High

2. Global Urea Price Assessments (FOB Middle East) Type: Commodity Price Data · Provider: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), Argus Media, CME Group, Commodity3.com, Trading Economics Cadence: Daily/Weekly/Monthly Why it matters: Rising urea prices signal higher agricultural input costs, potentially reducing yields or increasing food prices, thus exacerbating the food commodities supply shock. Middle East disruptions directly impact supply from a key production region. Suggested query: Global Urea Price FOB Middle East Confidence: High

3. USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Reports Type: Agricultural Data · Provider: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: Provides critical forecasts for global and U.S. production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks for key commodities like wheat, corn, and soybeans, directly impacting supply-demand balances and price outlooks relevant to the theme. Suggested query: USDA WASDE report latest Confidence: High

4. CME Group (CBOT) Futures Prices (Wheat, Corn, Sugar, Soybean Oil) Type: Financial Market Data · Provider: CME Group (CBOT) Cadence: Daily Why it matters: Real-time tracking of futures prices for key food commodities provides immediate signals of market sentiment, supply/demand shifts, and investor expectations regarding the theme. Sustained increases reinforce the bullish thesis. Suggested query: CBOT Wheat Futures Price Confidence: High

5. NOAA El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System / WMO El Niño/La Niña Update Type: Climate Data · Provider: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Cadence: Monthly/Seasonal Why it matters: Provides authoritative forecasts for El Niño/La Niña events, which are highly likely to strengthen into a 'Super El Niño' in 2026-2027, significantly impacting global agricultural yields and exacerbating supply concerns. Suggested query: NOAA ENSO update Confidence: High

Key Metrics3 rows

Metric	Cadence	What It Signals	Update Source
CME Group (CBOT) Futures Prices (Wheat, Corn, Sugar, Soybean Oil)	Daily	Sustained increases in futures prices for key food commodities signal tightening global supply or increased demand, reinforcing the supply shock. Declining prices suggest easing conditions.	LLM_Approved
Global Urea Price (FOB Middle East)	Daily	Rising urea prices signal higher agricultural input costs, potentially reducing yields or increasing food prices, exacerbating the food commodities supply shock. Declining prices suggest easing pressures.	LLM_Approved
NOAA El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System / WMO El Niño/La Niña Update	Monthly/Seasonal	Confirmation or strengthening of 'Super El Niño' signals increased risk of adverse weather, threatening global crop yields and exacerbating food commodity supply shocks. Weakening signals suggest easing weather risks.	LLM_Approved

Upcoming Catalysts27 rows

Catalyst	Estimated Timing	Estimated Date Start	Estimated Date End	Why It Matters	Ticker Or Theme Specific	Source Types	Contributing Tickers	Mention Count	Base Score	Source Weight	Specificity Weight	Macro Bridge	Macro Bridge Multiplier	Theme Score	Date Aggregated	Manual Override	Bridge Mention Count	Theme Base Score	Theme Importance Score	Catalyst Source	Catalyst ID	Transcript Date	Source Type
Persistent geopolitical instability in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, continues to disrupt global energy, fertilizer, and shipping markets.	Ongoing through 2026, with impacts expected to manifest in Q3/Q4 2026 and into 2027.	2026-02-01	2027-12-31	This directly exacerbates supply shocks, increases input costs (fertilizer, fuel), disrupts trade routes, and drives up food commodity prices globally, aligning with the core investment theme. This affects input costs for ethanol producers like REX and output prices for agricultural companies like AGRO, and shipping for BG and SEB.	Theme	theme_composer	AGRO, REX, BG, SEB	4	0.0011	1.18	0.85	Economic, Commodity/Pricing	1.475	0.1661	2026-06-11	False	1	0.6085	90.0219	Theme composer
Monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports provide updated forecasts for global and U.S. production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks for key food commodities.	Monthly updates throughout 2026. The next report is expected mid-June 2026.	2026-06-12	2026-12-31	These reports offer critical insights into the supply-demand balance for major agricultural products like corn, wheat, and soybeans, directly influencing market sentiment and price trends for food commodities and related inputs.	Theme	theme_composer	AGRO, REX, BG, SEB	4	0.001	1.18	0.92		1.0	0.1042	2026-06-11	False	1	0.6085	66.0579	Theme composer
Finalization of the U.S. Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) policy for 2026/2027, including specific volumes for biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels, will provide clarity to the biofuel market.	Expected in Q2-Q4 2026, following delays beyond Q1 2026.	2026-06-11	2026-12-31	A favorable and finalized RVO policy would significantly boost demand for soybean and canola oil, rapidly tightening the market and improving crush margins for companies like Bunge, while also influencing overall biofuel feedstock prices and demand.	Theme	theme_composer	BG, REX	2	0.0006	1.18	0.92	Regulatory/Policy	1.35	0.0908	2026-06-11	False	1	0.2059	30.1813	Theme composer
The expiration of the Illinois carbon pipeline moratorium and progress on REX American Resources' EPA Class 6 injection well permit application will enable advancement of its carbon capture and sequestration initiatives.	Illinois moratorium expires July 1, 2026; EPA permit process is ongoing.	2026-07-01	2026-12-31	This regulatory clarity is crucial for REX to fully realize 45Z clean fuel tax credits, enhancing its profitability and driving increased demand for corn as a feedstock for low-carbon ethanol production, supporting the broader food commodity market.	Theme	theme_composer	REX	1	0.0	1.18	0.92	Regulatory/Policy	1.35	0.0051	2026-06-11	False	1	0.0003	0.0486	Theme composer
Adecoagro's potential to increase sugarcane crushing volume by 5% to 6% in 2026 compared to 2025.	next year (2026)	2026-01-01	2026-12-31	Higher crushing volume is expected to lead to increased production of sugar, ethanol, and energy, potentially boosting revenue and diluting fixed costs, thereby improving profitability.	Ticker															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_4051913c	2025-11-12	earnings_transcript
Expected reduction of 15% to 20% in costs for the Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy business in 2026.	next year (2026)	2026-01-01	2026-12-31	A significant cost reduction would materially improve margins and profitability for the Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy segment, positively impacting overall company results and investor sentiment.	Ticker															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_92cf040d	2025-11-12	earnings_transcript
Implementation of a 'relevant reduction' in growth CapEx across all four business segments in 2026.	2026	2026-01-01	2026-12-31	Reduced CapEx could improve free cash flow generation and contribute to deleveraging, which is crucial given current compressed EBITDA margins and the recent Profertil acquisition.	Ticker															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_86371531	2025-11-12	earnings_transcript
Realization of improved margins in the crops business from the 2025-2026 campaign due to a 30% reduction in leased area and adjustment of crop mix (less long grain rice, more premium varieties).	new campaign (2025-2026), harvest in 2026	2026-04-01	2026-09-30	This strategic shift aims to enhance profitability in the crops segment by focusing on higher-return activities, potentially offsetting challenging market conditions and improving overall company results.	Ticker															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_a1573789	2025-11-12	earnings_transcript
Discussions and potential revision of Adecoagro's shareholder distribution policy (dividends and share buybacks).	coming years	2026-01-01	2028-12-31	Changes to the distribution policy could impact shareholder returns and free up cash for debt reduction, influencing investor sentiment and valuation.	Ticker															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_7e6f1013	2025-11-12	earnings_transcript
Ongoing implementation of additional cost savings and operational enhancements across all Adecoagro businesses.	started on the implementation, coming years	2025-11-12	2028-12-31	Successful execution of these initiatives is expected to improve profitability and contribute to reducing the company's net debt ratios, positively impacting financial health.	Ticker															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_1f6a2eb3	2025-11-12	earnings_transcript
Exploring potential capitalization structures in the company through ongoing conversations with the controlling shareholder.	conversations with our controlling shareholder, coming years	2025-11-12	2028-12-31	This could involve equity injections or other financial restructuring, directly impacting the company's debt levels and financial health, significantly affecting valuation and investor sentiment.	Ticker															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_c1c2a164	2025-11-12	earnings_transcript
Adecoagro's Fertilizers business (Profertil) achieving normalized operations and a full recovery in Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026.	normalized and full year of operations from the Fertilizers business	2026-01-01	2026-12-31	This is crucial for Adecoagro's consolidated results and deleveraging efforts, as Profertil is expected to drive significant cash generation and EBITDA. Bullish if achieved, bearish if operations face further disruptions or market prices decline.	Ticker															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_befa9f24	2026-03-16	earnings_transcript
Achievement of low double-digit growth in crushing volumes and a 10-15% reduction in unitary costs in Adecoagro's Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy business for 2026.	Looking at 2026, we foresee a low double-digit growth in our crushing volumes	2026-01-01	2026-12-31	Higher crushing volumes and lower costs will drive cost dilution and margin expansion, mitigating lower sugar prices and improving the segment's profitability. Bullish if targets are met or exceeded, bearish if missed.	Ticker															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_88451e85	2026-03-16	earnings_transcript
Realization of margin improvements in Adecoagro's Food and Agriculture business through cost initiatives and a 22% reduction in total planted area.	Looking ahead, we have implemented cost initiatives to improve margins, including a 22% reduction in total planted area	2026-01-01	2026-12-31	This aims to enhance profitability and cash generation in a segment that has faced pressure from lower commodity prices and higher costs. Bullish if margins expand, bearish if improvements are not realized.	Ticker															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_dca758b2	2026-03-16	earnings_transcript
Reduction of Adecoagro's net leverage ratio from 3.3x (pro forma) towards the target of approximately 2x.	we are going to be able to go to the leverage where we feel comfortable pretty quick, and that is what we are working on.	2026-03-20	2027-03-20	Deleveraging is a key post-acquisition priority, impacting financial health, cost of capital, and investor confidence. Bullish if the ratio decreases significantly, bearish if it remains elevated.	Ticker															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_98af75a8	2026-03-16	earnings_transcript
Adecoagro making a decision or announcement regarding the construction of a new urea plant or duplication of existing capacity in Argentina.	potential projects that could appear in the next year or so.	2026-03-20	2027-03-20	This represents a significant long-term growth avenue for the Fertilizers business, potentially transforming Adecoagro into a much larger urea producer and enhancing its market position. Bullish if a viable project is announced, bearish if plans are delayed or deemed unfeasible.	Ticker															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_8b05ad84	2026-03-16	earnings_transcript
Evolution of global urea supply-demand balance, particularly concerning supply disruptions from the Middle East and inventory levels, impacting international urea prices.	fertilizer prices will be impacted for the whole year with the most probability	2026-03-20	2026-12-31	Adecoagro's Fertilizers business is highly exposed to international urea prices, with 1.1 million tons still open to market prices for 2026. Sustained high prices are bullish, while a significant decline would be bearish.	Theme															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_789d0de5	2026-03-16	earnings_transcript
Realization of an increase in international sugar prices in the second half of 2026, driven by Brazil maximizing ethanol production and market rebalancing.	potential to increase the price of sugar in the second semester.	2026-07-01	2026-12-31	Higher sugar prices would directly benefit Adecoagro's Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy segment, improving margins and overall profitability, especially given current low prices. Bullish if prices increase as expected, bearish if they remain suppressed.	Theme															AGRO (ticker)	AGRO_b0e9c8d2	2026-03-16	earnings_transcript
Finalization of U.S. Biofuel Policy (Renewable Volume Obligations - RVO) for 2026.	during the year once the policy is finalized.	2026-04-24	2026-12-31	The finalization of the RVO, including specific volumes and timing of implementation, will significantly impact demand for soybean oil and crush margins, potentially leading to substantial upside for Bunge's adjusted EPS.	Theme															BG (ticker)	BG_69cdd186	2026-02-04	earnings_transcript
Outcome of the 2026 sunseed crop in the Black Sea/Europe region.	in the coming year	2026-07-01	2026-10-31	A good sunseed crop would lead to improved crush margins in the Black Sea and Europe, positively impacting Bunge's Softseed Processing and Refining segment. Conversely, a poor crop could negatively impact margins.	Ticker															BG (ticker)	BG_eb71df6d	2026-02-04	earnings_transcript
Completion and commencement of operations for the One Earth Energy facility expansion, increasing ethanol production capacity to 200 million gallons per year.	completion in 2026	2026-01-01	2026-12-31	This expansion is expected to significantly boost REX's production capabilities and operational efficiency, directly impacting future revenue, profitability, and market share.	Ticker															REX (ticker)	REX_4c25ecc7	2025-12-04	earnings_transcript
Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) establishing clear guidelines and opening the application process for carbon capture pipelines after the moratorium ends.	July 1 is the last day (for moratorium), after that, if not earlier (for applying)	2026-07-01	2026-12-31	This regulatory development is crucial for REX to potentially expand its carbon capture infrastructure beyond its initial six-mile pipeline, which could facilitate future carbon sequestration projects and third-party partnerships.	Ticker															REX (ticker)	REX_102f1d05	2025-12-04	earnings_transcript
REX entering into agreements with third parties to utilize its excess carbon capture and sequestration capacity.	in the future	2026-07-01	2028-12-31	These partnerships could unlock new revenue streams and enhance the return on investment for REX's carbon capture infrastructure, contributing to long-term profitability and strategic positioning.	Ticker															REX (ticker)	REX_36e1ba89	2025-12-04	earnings_transcript
Expiration of the Illinois moratorium on carbon pipeline permitting and REX's subsequent submission of its pipeline application to the Illinois Commerce Commission.	scheduled to expire on 07/01/2026	2026-07-01	2026-07-31	This regulatory milestone is essential for developing the necessary infrastructure for REX's carbon capture project, allowing for the transportation of captured CO2 for sequestration. Bullish if the moratorium expires and the application proceeds smoothly, bearish if further delays or new regulatory hurdles emerge.	Ticker															REX (ticker)	REX_3853523c	2026-05-28	earnings_transcript
Release of final Treasury/IRS regulations for Section 45Z clean fuel production tax credits, particularly regarding the carbon intensity (CI) scoring methodology.	ongoing federal policy discussions related to carbon capture incentives under Section 45Z	2026-06-01	2026-09-30	Final regulations will provide crucial clarity on the eligibility, calculation, and ultimate value of 45Z credits for REX, significantly impacting its future revenue streams and profitability from low-carbon ethanol production. Bullish if favorable rules are finalized, bearish if they introduce complexities or stricter requirements.	Ticker															REX (ticker)	REX_407c124f	2026-05-28	earnings_transcript
The confirmed high potential for a 'Super El Niño' event in 2026-2027 poses significant risks to global crop yields, further tightening food commodity supplies.	NOAA forecasts indicate a 65% chance of a strong or very strong El Niño from October 2026 to February 2027.	2026-10-01	2027-02-28	Adverse weather patterns directly impact agricultural production, leading to reduced crop yields and exacerbating global food commodity supply shortages and price increases across various agricultural products.	Theme	theme_composer	AGRO, REX, BG, SEB	4	0.0011	1.18	0.92	Economic, Weather/Climate	1.525	0.1858	2026-06-11	False	1	0.6085	100.7384	Theme composer
Completion of the ethanol production capacity expansion at REX's One Earth Energy facility in Gibson City.	by the end of 2026	2026-10-01	2026-12-31	This expansion will significantly increase REX's ethanol production capabilities, driving higher sales volumes and positioning the company for long-term growth and enhanced financial performance. Bullish if completed on schedule, bearish if delayed.	Ticker															REX (ticker)	REX_62822cbe	2026-05-28	earnings_transcript

NotesTable

Earnings Summary

Date	Type	Comment	Detail	Sentiment	Tickers
2026-06-11	Theme Update	REX's record Q1 earnings and ethanol expansion, boosted by 45Z tax credits, confirm robust corn demand for biofuel, reinforcing the theme's bullish outlook. This demand, coupled with persistent Middle East instability disrupting shipping/fertilizer and the confirmed "Super El Niño," continues to drive upward pressure on food commodity prices.	Earnings Summary	Bullish	REX

Constituents

AGROT3
— Adecoagro S.A.
BGT3
— Bunge Global S.A.
REXT3
— REX American Resources Corporation
SEBT3
— Seaboard Corporation
ADMT3
· no notes yet
ANDET3
· no notes yet
CTVAT3
· no notes yet
GPRET3
· no notes yet

Supply Shock in MidEast Long '26: Food Commodities (view performance)