Steel '25: Fabrication & Processing (open on stockthemes)

1. BLS — Producer Price Index (Commodity Data)

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field WPU1017

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Measures wholesale price trends for steel mill products, the core raw material for flat-rolled processors (WS), wire drawers (IIIN), and contract fabricators (MEC), determining steel processing spreads and profitability.

Signal to watch Rising prices indicate potential margin pressure if not passed on; falling prices could improve margins or signal weaker demand.

Confidence: high

2. FRED — Construction Spending

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field TLMFGCONS

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Directly reflects demand for fabricated steel products in key end-markets like data centers, industrial buildings, and commercial projects, which are crucial for theme members.

Signal to watch Sustained growth indicates strong demand; contraction signals headwinds for non-residential construction-focused companies.

Confidence: high

3. FRED — Industrial Production

Matchedindustrial_production · access=api

Metric/field IPG332N

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Measures the overall activity and health of the fabricated metal products sector, which is central to the theme's focus on value-added steel processing.

Signal to watch Increasing production indicates robust demand and operational activity; declining production suggests slowdowns in the sector.

Confidence: high

4. Trading Economics — Construction Output

Matched (medium)trading_economics · access=api · map_only

Metric/field United Kingdom Construction Output

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Directly impacts demand for structural steel fabrication in the UK and Europe, a key market for Severfield (SFR.LSE) and Billington (BILN.LSE).

Signal to watch Growth indicates a healthy pipeline for UK fabricators; contraction suggests weaker order books and project activity.

Confidence: high

5. Trading Economics — Infrastructure Output

Matched (medium)trading_economics · access=api · map_only

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Measures the performance of core industries including steel, directly influencing demand for fabricated steel structures in India, relevant for Salasar (SALASAR.NS), Pennar (PENIND.NS), and Skipper (SKIPPER.NS).

Signal to watch Strong growth indicates robust demand from key end-markets for Indian constituents; slowdowns suggest potential headwinds.

Confidence: low

1. USASpending.gov — Federal Award Search API

Matched (medium)cand_usaspending_gov_883b3088 · access=api · candidate

Metric/field Award Amount (USD) for NAICS 332312

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Tracks prime federal contract award obligations for structural metal manufacturing, transmission poles, and highway lighting infrastructure under federal funding programs.

Signal to watch A rising trend in award amounts signals increased government investment in infrastructure, a key demand driver for many theme members.

Confidence: high

2. Google Trends — Search Interest

Not in registry

Metric/field "steel fabrication services" (Search Interest Index)

Cadence daily/weekly

Why it matters Provides a real-time proxy for underlying commercial and industrial demand for steel fabrication services, indicating general market interest.

Signal to watch Increasing search interest suggests growing demand for services offered by theme members; declining interest may signal softening demand.

Confidence: medium

3. Reddit — r/Welding subreddit

Matched (medium)wingstop_community_posts · access=scrape

Metric/field Post volume and sentiment analysis (e.g., mentions of 'backlogs', 'overtime', 'robotic welding', 'certification demand')

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Offers ground-level sentiment on structural fabrication backlogs, robotic welding cell deployment, overtime levels, and AWS structural welding certification demand, reflecting operational realities.

Signal to watch Increased mentions of backlogs, overtime, and robotic welding deployment suggest strong demand and investment; negative sentiment on job availability or project delays indicates slowdowns.

Confidence: medium

4. American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) — Steel Import Data

Matched (medium)cand_american_iron_and_steel_institute_ai_d1c04079 · access=scrape · candidate

Metric/field U.S. import volumes for PC strand (HTS codes 7312.10.3010 and 7312.10.3012)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Reduced PC strand imports due to tariffs create a more favorable competitive environment for domestic producers like Insteel (IIIN). Monitoring import volumes indicates the ongoing effectiveness of trade policies and potential for pricing power.

Signal to watch Sustained year-over-year decline in import volumes (e.g., >30%) indicates continued tariff effectiveness and reduced foreign competition, bullish for domestic producers.

Confidence: high

5. Association of American Railroads (AAR) — Weekly Rail Carloads

Matched (medium)cand_association_of_american_railroads_aa_8232262a · candidate

Metric/field Rail carloads for Fabricated Metal Products (STCC 34)

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Provides a timely indicator of freight movement for fabricated metal products, reflecting industrial activity and demand for raw materials and finished goods within the sector.

Signal to watch Consistent increases in carloads suggest robust industrial activity and demand; declines may signal a slowdown in manufacturing and construction.

Confidence: medium

1. S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts) — Platts Metals Daily

Matched (medium)trading_economics_non_ferrous_metals · access=file · map_only

Metric/field TSI US Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) Index ($/st) & Shredded Auto Scrap Spread

Cadence daily

Why it matters The primary benchmark for flat-rolled steel feedstock costs, governing tolling surcharges, inventory valuation adjustments, and profitability for flat-rolled processors like Worthington (WS).

Signal to watch Widening spreads between HRC and scrap prices indicate improved profitability for processors; narrowing spreads suggest margin compression.

Confidence: high

2. FreightWaves SONAR — Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI)

Matchedfreightwaves_truckload_tender_volumes_rejections · access=file · map_only

Metric/field National Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI.USA)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Measures the percentage of contracted loads rejected by carriers, indicating trucking capacity tightness and underlying demand for freight, which impacts logistics costs for all theme members.

Signal to watch Rising rejection rates signal tightening capacity and potentially higher freight costs, indicating strong demand or supply chain disruptions.

Confidence: high

3. Dell'Oro Group — Data Center IT Capex Quarterly Report

Matched (medium)dell_oro_group_market_forecasts_technology_adoption · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Worldwide Data Center Capex (Total & Hyperscale Segment)

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Provides detailed analysis of global data center capital expenditures, a significant and growing end-market for structural steel fabricators like Severfield (SFR.LSE) and concrete reinforcement suppliers like Insteel (IIIN).

Signal to watch Sustained growth in data center capex, especially from hyperscalers, indicates strong demand for associated structural steel and infrastructure components.

Confidence: high

4. Engineering News-Record (ENR) — Construction Cost Index / Building Cost Index

Matchedengineering_news_record_construction_cost_benchmark_3 · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Materials Cost Index (Structural Steel component)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks the weighted price movement of key construction materials, including structural steel, providing a benchmark for material costs in construction projects.

Signal to watch Changes in the structural steel component reflect shifts in raw material costs for fabricators and can impact project profitability.

Confidence: high

5. S&P Global Panjiva — Shipping / Trade Data

Matcheds_p_global_trade_supply_chain_data · access=file · map_only

Metric/field US import volumes for HTS 7308 (Structures and parts of structures, of iron or steel)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Monitors the import of fabricated steel structures, providing insight into competitive pressures from foreign suppliers and overall demand for these products in the US market.

Signal to watch Increasing import volumes could signal heightened competition for domestic fabricators; decreasing volumes may indicate stronger domestic demand or reduced foreign supply.

Confidence: high

1. US private data center construction spending in September (September 2026)

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Matched (medium)kalshi_senate_control_d · access=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdatacentcon

Why it matters Increased US private data center construction spending directly drives demand for fabricated steel products, including structural steel, reinforcing products, and specialized components, benefiting theme constituents like Insteel Industries (IIIN) and Severfield (SFR.LSE) which supply this sector.

Series key pm_us_private_data_center_construction_spending

2. US manufacturing construction spending in December 2026

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Matched (medium)kalshi_senate_control_d · access=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmanucon

Why it matters Growth in US manufacturing construction spending indicates robust demand for new industrial facilities, which are significant end-markets for contract metal fabricators and steel processors such as Worthington Steel (WS) and Mayville Engineering Company (MEC).

Series key pm_us_manufacturing_construction_spending

3. Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027? (Before Oct 1, 2027)

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Matched (medium)pm_kalshi_ddr5_ye2027_above_95 · access=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxkeycontract

Why it matters The awarding of a major infrastructure contract like the Key Bridge main span signifies direct program funding for large-scale structural steel fabrication projects. This would benefit structural steel fabricators like Severfield (SFR.LSE) and Valmont Industries (VMI), which are involved in engineered steel infrastructure.

Series key pm_key_bridge_main_span_contract_award