Home / Themes / Small Themes '24: IT
Small Themes '24: IT (view performance)
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Theme no thesis · 2/5 sections · Tickers 4 with notes · 4 pending
Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).
Overview
Hiring Trend Watchpoints
High-performing operators in this theme are aggressively hiring for AI/ML engineers, data scientists, and automation specialists to embed "agentic AI" into core workflows (Blend Labs, Toast) and leverage proprietary data for monetization (Ziff Davis). There's a strong emphasis on leaner, more efficient teams and global talent sourcing in lower-cost geographies (Blend Labs) to manage operational expenses. As companies expand into new markets and customer segments, enterprise sales, implementation, and customer success roles are critical, particularly for complex rollouts (Toast's drive-thru, PAR Technology's enterprise wins). For Ziff Davis, roles related to AI content licensing, data activation, and strategic finance/M&A are key given its strategic review. Confirming theme execution would be a sustained increase in job postings for AI/ML development, enterprise solution architects, and international market expansion roles, coupled with management commentary emphasizing efficiency gains from automation rather than headcount growth. Warning of deterioration would be broad hiring freezes, significant layoffs in product development for new growth areas, or an unexpected surge in hiring for basic operational/manual roles that AI is intended to replace, indicating slower-than-expected automation adoption or execution issues.
Forum Watchlist
- reddit — r/fintechhigh
Discussions on AI in lending, digital mortgage, banking automation, Blend Labs product reviews.
- reddit — r/restaurantshigh
Operator feedback on POS systems (Toast, PAR), drive-thru tech, payment processing, AI tools for restaurant management.
- reddit — r/SEOmedium
Discussions on Google algorithm changes, AI Overviews impact on affiliate marketing, content monetization strategies, Ziff Davis properties.
- reddit — r/cybersecuritymedium
Trends in enterprise cybersecurity, software solutions, Ziff Davis's cybersecurity segment.
- industry_forum — Fintech Futures Forummedium
Professional discussions on digital transformation in financial services, regulatory impacts, AI adoption.
- industry_forum — Restaurant Business Online forumsmedium
Insights from restaurant owners and operators on technology adoption, pain points, and vendor performance.
Second Order Trends
The theme is increasingly defined by the rapid integration of "agentic AI" moving beyond simple insights to autonomous execution of complex, regulated tasks (e.g., Blend Autopilot automating lending, ToastIQ automating back-office functions). This is driving a structural shift towards platform consolidation and "bundled deals," as customers seek integrated solutions over disparate point products to achieve "elastic capacity" and reduce operational overhead. Simultaneously, companies are navigating significant market-specific headwinds: digital media players (Ziff Davis) are grappling with search engine disruption and AI Overviews' impact on affiliate commerce, while fintech (Blend Labs) remains exposed to interest rate cyclicality. Restaurant tech (Toast, PAR Technology) faces macroeconomic sensitivity in consumer spending and supply chain volatility impacting hardware margins. The "sum-of-the-parts" strategic review (Ziff Davis) highlights a broader trend of conglomerates seeking to unlock value by divesting or spinning off high-growth, specialized segments. The emerging focus on AI content licensing frameworks (Ziff Davis) is also a critical, evolving narrative for data-rich digital platforms.
Search Keywords Brand Product
- Blend Autopilot
- ToastIQ
- Speedtest Pulse
- Speedtest Certified
- Halo data activation
- xtraCHEF
- Toast Capital
- Toast Go
- Title365
- PAR Brink POS
- PAR Punchh
Search Keywords Policy Regulatory
- AI content licensing
- US import tariffs electronics
- GLP-1 prescription impact
- HMDA data
Search Keywords Event Phrases
- Ziff Davis strategic review update
- Blend Mr. Cooper roll-off
- Toast drive-thru product launch
- PAR Burger King rollout progress
- AI Overviews impact affiliate marketing
Google Trend Product Category Intent
• Blend Autopilot reviews
• ToastIQ features
• Speedtest by Ookla
• CNET reviews
• RetailMeNot deals
• IGN news
Google Trend Consumer Intent
• online mortgage application
• restaurant point of sale system
• best health apps
• internet speed test
• digital banking solutions
Google Trend Macro Policy Terms
• AI regulation news
• mortgage interest rates forecast
• consumer spending trends restaurant
• semiconductor supply chain news
Top datasets to track
1. HMDA Data (Home Mortgage Disclosure Act) Type: Economic/Regulatory · Provider: CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) Cadence: Annual (with quarterly updates for some data) Why it matters: Crucial for tracking Blend Labs' mortgage market share and assessing the impact of the Mr. Cooper roll-off and broader market shifts. Suggested query: HMDA data 2026 mortgage market share Confidence: High
2. Similarweb Web Traffic & Engagement Data Type: Alternative Data · Provider: Similarweb Cadence: Monthly/Quarterly Why it matters: Provides insights into Ziff Davis's Tech & Shopping segment performance, tracking web search traffic declines and the effectiveness of alternative engagement strategies for key properties like CNET and RetailMeNot. Suggested query: Similarweb CNET traffic RetailMeNot engagement Confidence: High
3. Toast Recurring Gross Profit Streams Type: Company-Level Financial · Provider: Toast (TOST) Earnings Reports Cadence: Quarterly Why it matters: This is Toast's primary top-line metric, combining high-margin subscription revenue and fintech gross profit. It measures the company's ability to monetize its location base and is a key indicator of growth stability. Suggested query: Toast Q1 2026 Recurring Gross Profit Streams Confidence: High
4. DRAM and NAND Memory Chip Spot Prices Type: Industry/Commodity · Provider: Industry news (e.g., DigiTimes, TrendForce), market data providers Cadence: Weekly/Monthly Why it matters: Directly impacts Toast's hardware margins, which are facing a 150 bps headwind. Monitoring price trends will signal if this pressure is easing or intensifying. Suggested query: DRAM NAND spot price trend July 2026 Confidence: High
5. Restaurant and Other Eating Places Sales Type: Economic · Provider: U.S. Census Bureau (Monthly Retail Trade Survey) Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: Provides a macro-level view of consumer spending in the restaurant sector, directly impacting GPV per location for Toast and overall demand for PAR Technology's restaurant tech solutions. Suggested query: US restaurant sales data monthly Confidence: High
- Industry Publications
- [{"name": "Fintech News", "domain": "fintech.news", "why": "Covers global fintech trends, AI in banking, digital lending, and financial services innovation, directly relevant to Blend Labs."}, {"name": "Restaurant Business Online", "domain": "restaurantbusinessonline.com", "why": "Provides in-depth coverage of restaurant industry trends, technology adoption, POS systems, and operational challenges, highly relevant to Toast and PAR Technology."}, {"name": "Adweek", "domain": "adweek.com", "why": "Focuses on advertising, digital media, and marketing trends, including the impact of AI on content and monetization, relevant to Ziff Davis."}, {"name": "TechCrunch", "domain": "techcrunch.com", "why": "Covers startups and tech innovation, including fintech and AI applications, offering broader context for all theme members."}, {"name": "Cybersecurity Dive", "domain": "cybersecuritydive.com", "why": "Offers news and analysis on enterprise cybersecurity, data privacy, and related software, relevant to Ziff Davis's segment."}, {"name": "Mortgage Professional America", "domain": "mpamag.com", "why": "Specialized news for the mortgage industry, covering technology, regulations, and market dynamics, crucial for Blend Labs."}, {"name": "Digital Content Next", "domain": "digitalcontentnext.org", "why": "Focuses on premium digital publishers, content monetization, and AI licensing issues, highly relevant to Ziff Davis."}]
Upcoming Catalysts
| Catalyst ID | Estimated Timing | Estimated Date Start | Estimated Date End | Catalyst | Why It Matters | Ticker Or Theme Specific | Transcript Date | Source Type | Catalyst Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLND_dc80641c | current consensus expectation that lower mortgage rates in 2026 will drive industry growth | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Potential for lower mortgage rates in 2026, which is expected to drive industry growth and increased mortgage activity. | Lower rates could lead to higher refi activity and overall mortgage market growth, significantly benefiting Blend's mortgage business and flowing to its bottom line due to its operating leverage. This is a bullish macro dependency. | Theme | 2025-11-06 | earnings_transcript | BLND (ticker) |
| BLND_b8312c64 | For 2026, our priority is driving the adoption of the products that create exponential value for our customers in the mortgage case, Rapid Refi and Blend Close. | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Increased adoption and scaling of Blend's Rapid Refi and Blend Close products by existing and new customers. | Successful adoption is a 'powerful lever' to grow Blend's take rate (economic value per funded loan) in the Mortgage Suite, driving higher revenue and profitability and delivering on long-term potential. This is a bullish company-specific product ramp. | Ticker | 2025-11-06 | earnings_transcript | BLND (ticker) |
| BLND_e1cc6ec2 | For 2026, the goal is clear: expand adoption with large accounts and accelerate our speed to market by standardizing more of our out-of-the-box solutions for the rest of our customer base. | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Successful expansion of the Consumer Banking Suite through increased adoption with large accounts and accelerated speed to market for standardized solutions. | This segment is a strategic powerhouse and less cyclical, providing stable revenue. Successful expansion will enhance the company's stability, resilience, and overall revenue growth. This is a bullish company-specific strategic action. | Ticker | 2025-11-06 | earnings_transcript | BLND (ticker) |
| BLND_ab4d0d44 | over time, AI solutions as well. I would say I've put that in the very early stages category, and it's not baked into our financial model | 2026-01-01 | 2028-12-31 | Successful development, adoption, and monetization of Blend's AI-powered Intelligent Origination solutions. | AI is seen as the 'definitive answer' to the industry's high mortgage origination costs. Successful monetization would unlock significant new revenue streams and provide substantial upside beyond current financial models. This is a bullish company-specific product ramp/innovation. | Ticker | 2025-11-06 | earnings_transcript | BLND (ticker) |
| BLND_605b01d7 | until rates really come down and mortgage volume, particularly refi really picks up. A market that looks like it might show some real improvement for the first time in several years. | 2026-04-01 | 2026-12-31 | A significant decline in interest rates leading to a sustained pick-up in overall mortgage and refinance volumes across the market. | A strong recovery in the mortgage market would directly boost Blend's Mortgage Suite revenue and overall total revenue, driving operating leverage and investor sentiment. Conversely, continued high rates would suppress volumes. | Theme | 2026-03-10 | earnings_transcript | BLND (ticker) |
| BLND_c4b70f1d | in the coming days (for initial turn-on by 7 customers), every week, our customers are going to see material new updates, and results will continue to play out over time. | 2026-03-10 | 2026-12-31 | Successful adoption and monetization of Blend Autopilot and other AI-driven 'agent first' products by customers, leading to increased revenue per funded loan (evPFL) and operational efficiency for Blend and its customers. | Blend Autopilot is positioned as a significant catalyst to increase Blend's value proposition, drive higher take rates, and improve customer stickiness, materially impacting revenue, margins, and valuation as monetization ramps. | Ticker | 2026-03-10 | earnings_transcript | BLND (ticker) |
| BLND_d8f67f38 | starting off with a little under $11 million of revenue in Q1 and then having similar seasonality in 2026 as it did in 2025, with new deployments ramping up in 2026. | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | The Consumer Banking Suite's ability to achieve sustained growth throughout 2026, driven by new deployments and cross-sells, offsetting the impact of customer churn and seasonality. | The Consumer Banking Suite is a key diversification strategy and growth engine for Blend. Its performance will indicate the success of Blend's 'land and expand' strategy and reduce reliance on the volatile mortgage market, impacting total revenue and investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-03-10 | earnings_transcript | BLND (ticker) |
| BLND_4277799d | as the year progresses, and we lap prior period comps. | 2026-04-01 | 2026-12-31 | The gap between Blend's reported non-GAAP R&D expense growth and the underlying cash R&D expense decline narrowing as 2026 progresses, due to changes in accounting for capitalized software development costs. | This accounting dynamic will impact Blend's reported operating leverage and profitability metrics, potentially improving investor perception of cost efficiency and financial performance as the year unfolds. | Ticker | 2026-03-10 | earnings_transcript | BLND (ticker) |
| ZD_7ff9d099 | expected to contribute to meaningful growth in 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Increased adoption and revenue contribution from new Connectivity products, Speedtest Pulse (a handheld diagnostic device) and Speedtest Certified (an independent network verification program). | These products are expected to drive meaningful revenue growth in the high-margin Connectivity segment, which could positively impact overall company revenue and valuation. | Ticker | 2026-02-23 | earnings_transcript | ZD (ticker) |
| ZD_dc45bebc | evaluation of potential strategic opportunities remains ongoing | 2026-02-25 | 2026-12-31 | Conclusion of Ziff Davis's strategic review process, potentially leading to divestitures, spinoffs, or other transactions to unlock shareholder value. | A successful transaction could lead to a 'sum-of-the-parts' re-rating and significant shareholder value creation, while no transaction could result in a continued valuation disconnect. | Ticker | 2026-02-23 | earnings_transcript | ZD (ticker) |
| ZD_1545cba4 | improvements in the second half of the year [2026] | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | Improvement in Tech & Shopping segment revenue performance, driven by favorable year-over-year comparisons, increased off-platform engagement, and growth in licensing activities. | A successful turnaround in this segment would mitigate a significant revenue headwind, potentially improving overall company revenue growth and investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-02-23 | earnings_transcript | ZD (ticker) |
| ZD_41b4d976 | following the resolution of our ongoing litigation | 2026-02-25 | 2026-12-31 | Resolution of ongoing litigation regarding AI content licensing and the subsequent securing of formal licensing agreements with large language model (LLM) providers for Ziff Davis's content. | Establishing clear compensation frameworks and securing licensing deals could unlock significant new revenue streams for Ziff Davis, potentially offsetting search traffic declines and positively impacting valuation. | Ticker | 2026-02-23 | earnings_transcript | ZD (ticker) |
| ZD_508223fa | if and when we receive them in the future | 2026-02-25 | 2028-12-31 | Receipt of future payments tied to the performance of the divested Game Publishing business under its new management. | These payments would be recognized as investment gains, positively impacting Ziff Davis's financial results, though the amount and timing are uncertain. | Ticker | 2026-02-23 | earnings_transcript | ZD (ticker) |
| ZD_152e4ab5 | may be periods of time when we are not able to repurchase shares under this authorization | 2026-02-25 | 2026-12-31 | The pace and volume of Ziff Davis's share repurchase program, which may be impacted by blackout periods during the strategic review process. | Aggressive share repurchases reduce share count, boosting EPS and signaling management's confidence in the stock's undervaluation, while a slowdown could negatively impact sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-02-23 | earnings_transcript | ZD (ticker) |
| ZD_a8e9b658 | in 2026 as opportunities arise | 2026-02-25 | 2026-12-31 | Ziff Davis's M&A activity, acquiring businesses to add capabilities and grow accretively. | Successful, accretive acquisitions could drive revenue and EBITDA growth, expanding the company's capabilities and market position. | Ticker | 2026-02-23 | earnings_transcript | ZD (ticker) |