Shrinkage Long '25: Digital Solutions (open on stockthemes)

1. FRED — Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field RETAILSMNSA

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Directly reflects the health and revenue generation of the retail sector, influencing retailers' budgets and urgency for loss prevention investments.

Signal to watch Increasing or stable retail sales suggest a healthier environment for retailers to invest in digital loss prevention solutions. Declining sales may lead to budget tightening.

Confidence: high

2. FRED — Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field CPIAUCSL

Cadence monthly

Why it matters General inflation impacts consumer purchasing power, retailer margins, and potentially the incidence of theft, influencing the need for advanced loss prevention.

Signal to watch Sustained high inflation could pressure retailer profitability, making efficient loss prevention solutions more critical, or conversely, lead to budget cuts. Lower inflation might stabilize spending.

Confidence: high

3. FRED — Personal Consumption Expenditures: Goods

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field PCEPI

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Focuses on consumer spending on goods, which are the primary targets of retail theft and organized retail crime, directly impacting shrinkage levels.

Signal to watch Strong growth in goods consumption indicates a robust retail environment where shrinkage can have a larger financial impact, driving demand for prevention technologies. A decline could signal broader economic weakness.

Confidence: high

4. FRED — Manufacturers' New Orders: Nondefense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft

Matchednondefense_capex_new_orders · access=api

Metric/field NEWORDER

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Serves as a proxy for business investment in equipment and technology, which can include digital loss prevention systems for retailers and logistics providers.

Signal to watch Increasing new orders for capital goods suggest a willingness by businesses, including retailers, to invest in new technologies and infrastructure, potentially benefiting theme members.

Confidence: high

5. FRED — Unemployment Rate

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field UNRATE

Cadence monthly

Why it matters A general indicator of economic health; while ORC is organized, broader economic conditions can indirectly influence overall crime rates and consumer behavior.

Signal to watch Rising unemployment could indicate economic stress, which might correlate with increased theft incidents, thereby increasing the perceived need for loss prevention solutions.

Confidence: high

1. Google Trends — Search Interest Data

Not in registry

Metric/field Search interest for 'organized retail crime' (worldwide)

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Indicates public and industry awareness and concern regarding organized retail crime, which is the core driver of the investment theme.

Signal to watch Sustained or increasing search interest suggests ongoing public and media attention, potentially leading to continued policy focus and retailer investment.

Confidence: medium

2. California Department of Justice (DOJ) — Proposition 36 Implementation Updates

Not in registry

Metric/field Arrests, prosecutions, or deterrence data related to Prop 36

Cadence event_driven

Why it matters Prop 36 is a key legislative shift aimed at stiffening penalties for retail theft, directly impacting the legal environment for ORC.

Signal to watch Upward trends in arrests, prosecutions, or reported deterrence data signal that enforcement is effective, validating a core bull thesis point for the theme.

Confidence: high

3. Reddit Community — r/LossPrevention

Matched (medium)cand_reddit_97b8dd0c · candidate

Metric/field Post volume and sentiment related to new LP strategies and tech adoption

Cadence daily/weekly

Why it matters Provides industry-specific discussions and anecdotal evidence from loss prevention professionals on emerging strategies, challenges, and technology adoption.

Signal to watch Increasing discussion volume or positive sentiment around digital solutions (e.g., AI, machine vision, RFID) indicates growing interest and potential adoption within the LP community.

Confidence: medium

4. SEC EDGAR — 8-K / 10-Q / 10-K Filings from Major Retailers

Not in registry

Metric/field Mentions of 'loss prevention', 'shrinkage', 'retail crime', 'RFID', 'machine vision', 'AI security' in full-text

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Directly signals major retailers' focus and investment in loss prevention technologies and strategies, providing qualitative insights into the theme's tailwinds.

Signal to watch Increasing frequency or detailed discussions of investments in digital loss prevention technologies indicate a growing commitment to addressing shrinkage.

Confidence: high

5. Indeed Hiring Lab — Job Posting Analytics

Matchedindeed_food_service_postings · access=api

Metric/field Job postings for 'AI/ML engineer loss prevention', 'computer vision retail security', 'RFID specialist'

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Indicates real-time hiring demand for specialized skills in AI, machine vision, RFID, and data analytics within the loss prevention sector, signaling investment trends.

Signal to watch Consistent or increasing job postings for these specialized roles suggest active investment and expansion in digital loss prevention capabilities by retailers and solution providers.

Confidence: medium

1. YipitData — Retailer Web/E-commerce Coverage

Matchedyipitdata_e_commerce_pricing_product_availability · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Product pricing, inventory levels, and promotional activity for security-related products (e.g., smart cameras, RFID tags) sold by major retailers

Cadence daily

Why it matters Provides granular, real-time insights into retailers' strategies for managing and selling security-related products, potentially indicating demand for underlying technologies.

Signal to watch Increased inventory or promotional activity for advanced security products could suggest higher adoption rates or strategic pushes by retailers to combat shrinkage.

Confidence: high

2. Thinknum — Job Posting Data

Matched (medium)cand_thinknum_5c4f6534 · access=file · candidate

Metric/field Number of job postings by theme constituents (AVY, CGNX, ZBRA) for roles related to 'AI', 'machine vision', 'RFID', 'loss prevention software'

Cadence weekly/monthly

Why it matters Directly tracks hiring trends for key technology roles within theme member companies, indicating their investment in developing and deploying digital solutions.

Signal to watch Sustained or accelerating hiring in these specialized areas signals strong internal investment and growth expectations for digital loss prevention solutions.

Confidence: high

3. WSL Strategic Retail — How America Shops® Survey / Panel

Matchedwsl_strategic_retail_how_america_shops_shopper_surveys · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Consumer sentiment and behavior related to retail theft, security measures, and impact on shopping habits

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Provides insights into how retail theft impacts consumer perception and behavior, which can influence retailers' urgency to invest in visible and effective loss prevention.

Signal to watch Increasing consumer concern about retail crime or positive reception to new security measures could drive retailers to further invest in solutions.

Confidence: medium

4. Dell'Oro Group — Retail Security Market Research Reports

Matcheddell_oro_group_market_forecasts_technology_adoption · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Market size, growth forecasts, and vendor market share for 'retail security cameras AI', 'RFID anti theft', 'loss prevention software'

Cadence annual

Why it matters Provides an overarching view of the market opportunity for digital solutions in retail loss prevention, validating the theme's long-term growth potential.

Signal to watch Upward revisions in market size forecasts or accelerating CAGR for digital loss prevention segments signal a strengthening market tailwind for theme members.

Confidence: high

5. Sourceability — Component Pricing / Lead Times

Matchedsourceability_component_pricing_lead_times · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Average spot price and lead time for key electronic components (e.g., memory, sensors, processors) used in machine vision and RFID systems

Cadence daily

Why it matters Directly impacts the cost of goods sold for hardware-focused theme members like CGNX, affecting their gross margins and profitability.

Signal to watch Decreasing component prices and stable lead times suggest favorable input costs, potentially boosting profitability. Rising prices or extended lead times could be a headwind.

Confidence: high

1. When will AI score above 65 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index? (Any AI model from any lab)

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Matched (medium)pm_kalshi_ddr5_ye2027_above_95 · access=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaascore

Why it matters The 'Shrinkage Long '25: Digital Solutions' theme is heavily reliant on the advancement and adoption of AI-powered technologies for loss prevention, with constituents like Cognex (CGNX) focusing on AI-enabled machine vision. An increase in AI capabilities, as measured by this index, directly validates the core technological thesis of the theme, potentially accelerating investment and demand for sophisticated digital solutions from theme constituents.

Series key pm_ai_performance_index

2. US private data center construction spending in September (September 2026)

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Matched (medium)kalshi_senate_control_d · access=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdatacentcon

Why it matters Increased US private data center construction spending signals robust 'program funding' in a key growth sector for theme constituent Cognex (CGNX), which leverages its AI-enabled machine vision solutions in the data center supply chain. Higher spending in this area directly translates to increased demand for the advanced inspection and automation technologies provided by companies within the 'Shrinkage Long '25: Digital Solutions' theme, supporting their revenue growth and market expansion.

Series key pm_us_data_center_construction_spending

3. Americas data center capacity at the end of 2026

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Matched (medium)kalshi_senate_control_d · access=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusdccapacity

Why it matters The expansion of Americas data center capacity reflects significant 'program funding' and investment in digital infrastructure, which is a crucial growth driver for Cognex (CGNX), a key constituent of the 'Shrinkage Long '25: Digital Solutions' theme. As data centers expand, so does the demand for AI-enabled machine vision systems for quality assurance and inspection within their supply chains, directly benefiting companies providing these digital solutions.

Series key pm_americas_data_center_capacity