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Restaurants '26: Pizza, Wings & Other Delivery (view performance)

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Theme thesis · 5/5 sections · Tickers 4 with notes · 6 pending

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Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).

Bull / Bear Details

The theme faces a challenging outlook. While digital innovation, global expansion, and targeted product offerings drive growth, persistent consumer value sensit

Thesis

The theme faces a challenging outlook. While digital innovation, global expansion, and targeted product offerings drive growth, persistent consumer value sensitivity, intense competition, and the long-term threat of GLP-1 drugs create significant headwinds. The bear case remains more compelling given recent sales pressures and unaddressed risks.

Bull case

  • Significant investments in digital platforms (e.g., Domino's AI-powered app, Wingstop's Club Wingstop loyalty) and operational technology (e.g., Wingstop Smart Kitchen, Domino's DomOS) are enhancing customer experience, driving engagement, and improving efficiency across the theme, with recent rollouts showing promising results.

  • Aggressive global unit development and strategic M&A are expanding the theme's reach, with companies like Casey's and Wingstop capitalizing on underpenetrated international markets and consolidating fragmented domestic landscapes, leveraging strong franchisee economics and robust development pipelines.

  • Continuous product innovation, including new Limited Time Offers (LTOs) and successful category expansions like Casey's wings program, combined with a focus on compelling value offerings, helps attract and retain customers in a competitive environment, driving incremental sales.

Bear case

  • Persistent consumer uncertainty, low sentiment (at COVID-level lows), and ongoing inflationary pressures are significantly impacting discretionary spending, particularly among lower-income demographics, leading to heightened demand for value, intensified competitive pricing, and weakness in order volumes and average ticket sizes across the theme.

  • The increasing adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs poses a significant, unaddressed long-term threat to demand for high-calorie, indulgent foods central to this theme, potentially leading to a fundamental shift in consumer eating habits and declining sales volumes for key players.

  • The QSR pizza and wings market faces intensified competitive value pressure from numerous national and local players, coupled with signs of market saturation and operational execution challenges related to consistent service and delivery speed, hindering overall growth and profitability, as evidenced by Pizza Hut's underperformance and Wingstop's delivery time issues.

Overview

Hiring Trend Watchpoints

High-performing operators in the pizza, wings, and delivery theme are demonstrating a dual hiring strategy. There's a continued focus on strategic leadership and technology roles (e.g., AI, data analytics, digital platforms like DomOS, Smart Kitchen, COO roles) to drive innovation, enhance customer experience, and improve operational efficiency. Concurrently, there's a strong emphasis on optimizing existing labor, reducing same-store labor hours through operational improvements, and managing rising labor rates to maintain profitability. Watch for job postings in AI/ML, data science, digital product management, and supply chain optimization. A shift towards increased hourly staff hiring without corresponding efficiency gains, or widespread reports of driver shortages, would signal deterioration. Conversely, continued investment in tech leadership and successful reduction in labor hours per transaction would confirm theme execution.

Forum Watchlist

  • Reddit — r/pizzaHigh

    Consumer sentiment on pizza quality, new product reviews, value perception, delivery experiences, local deals

  • Reddit — r/DominosHigh

    Customer feedback on app, delivery, deals, new menu items, franchisee discussions, order issues

  • Reddit — r/WingstopHigh

    Customer feedback on flavors, loyalty program (Club Wingstop), delivery speed, value, LTOs

  • Reddit — r/papajohnsMedium

    New product reviews, deals, delivery issues, aggregator experiences

  • Reddit — r/ubereatsMedium

    Driver experiences, customer service, pricing, promotions, delivery speed, virtual brands

  • Reddit — r/doordashMedium

    Driver experiences, customer service, pricing, promotions, delivery speed, virtual brands

  • Reddit — r/fastfoodMedium

    General QSR trends, value menus, consumer sentiment on affordability, new product buzz

  • Reddit — r/fooddeliveryMedium

    Broader delivery market trends, driver pay, customer expectations, platform comparisons

Second Order Trends

The primary second-order trend remains the evolving, unaddressed long-term impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on demand for high-calorie, indulgent foods, which could force fundamental shifts in menu strategy, portion sizes, and marketing across the theme. Beyond this, intensified industry consolidation driven by operational pressures on smaller players is accelerating, favoring larger franchisors with diversified models. The increasing integration of AI and data analytics for operational efficiency (e.g., Smart Kitchen, DomOS), personalized customer experiences, and loyalty programs (e.g., Club Wingstop) is a critical trend to drive engagement and retention in a value-sensitive consumer environment.

Search Keywords Brand Product

  • pizza deals
  • wing specials
  • delivery promotions
  • carryout offers
  • meal bundles
  • value menus
  • new pizza LTOs
  • Smart Kitchen technology
  • DomOS orchestration
  • Club Wingstop loyalty
  • Parmesan Stuffed Crust
  • New York Style pizza
  • sauced wings Casey's
  • KFC new menu
  • Taco Bell value menu
  • chicken sandwiches
  • boneless wings
  • pizza tracker AI
  • digital ordering
  • ghost kitchens

Search Keywords Policy Regulatory

  • restaurant minimum wage
  • food delivery regulations
  • franchise agreements
  • GLP-1 impact food industry
  • consumer spending trends QSR
  • food inflation outlook
  • restaurant labor market
  • QSR pricing strategies
  • food safety standards
  • delivery driver pay
  • gig economy regulations

Search Keywords Event Phrases

  • Domino's Q2 earnings
  • Wingstop Q2 results
  • Casey's FY27 outlook
  • Yum Brands investor day
  • restaurant industry trends 2026
  • GLP-1 drug impact restaurant sales
  • QSR value wars
  • Club Wingstop national launch
  • food delivery market share
  • restaurant M&A
  • consumer sentiment QSR
  • delivery platform profitability

Google Trend Product Category Intent

• pizza delivery near me • chicken wings deals • fast food coupons • carryout pizza specials • best value meals • healthy fast food options • meal prep delivery • quick dinner ideas • pizza LTOs • wing flavors • boneless wings near me • pizza tracker • online food ordering

Google Trend Consumer Intent

• cheap dinner ideas • food prices inflation • eating out budget • weight loss drugs food impact • consumer confidence restaurant • value meals restaurant • discretionary spending food • food cravings GLP-1 • meal kits delivery • restaurant deals today

Google Trend Macro Policy Terms

• restaurant labor shortage • food inflation rate • disposable income trends • consumer sentiment index • GLP-1 drug adoption rate • economic outlook QSR • minimum wage restaurant • food delivery market trends

Top datasets to track

1. Consumer Transaction Data (QSR/Fast Casual) Type: Alternative Data · Provider: Earnest Research / Facteus / Numerator Cadence: Weekly / Monthly Why it matters: Directly tracks consumer spending trends, especially for lower-income households, crucial for Wingstop and Domino's, indicating pressure or resilience. Also monitors impact of value promotions and shifts in spending patterns. Suggested query: QSR transaction volume by income cohort, average ticket size, promotional impact on spend Confidence: 0.95

2. Restaurant Foot Traffic Data Type: Alternative Data · Provider: Placer.ai / SafeGraph Cadence: Weekly / Monthly Why it matters: Measures physical store activity, crucial for assessing new unit openings (Casey's, Wingstop, Yum!) and overall demand, especially for carryout and convenience formats. Can signal success of new store formats or market penetration. Suggested query: Foot traffic trends for Domino's, Wingstop, Casey's locations; new store performance Confidence: 0.9

3. Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Food Away From Home Type: Economic Data · Provider: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: Macro indicator for inflation pressure on restaurant spending, impacting consumer purchasing power and discretionary spending on QSR pizza and wings, and influencing pricing strategies. Higher inflation could further pressure value-seeking behavior. Suggested query: CPI Food Away From Home (SA) month-over-month, year-over-year change Confidence: 0.9

4. App Downloads & Usage (Major QSR Apps & Aggregators) Type: Alternative Data · Provider: Sensor Tower / Similarweb Cadence: Weekly / Monthly Why it matters: Tracks digital engagement, competitive strength, and the effectiveness of digital investments (Domino's app, Yum's Byte platform, Wingstop's loyalty program), and aggregator platform market share. Crucial for understanding digital channel shifts and loyalty program success. Suggested query: Domino's app downloads, Wingstop app engagement, DoorDash/Uber Eats market share, Club Wingstop user growth Confidence: 0.95

5. GLP-1 Drug Prescription & Adoption Rates Type: Healthcare Data / Alternative Data · Provider: IQVIA / Symphony Health / News & Research Aggregators Cadence: Quarterly / Annually (or as available) Why it matters: Directly monitors the long-term, unaddressed threat of GLP-1 drugs to demand for high-calorie foods. Increasing adoption rates could signal a fundamental shift in consumer eating habits, impacting sales volumes. Suggested query: GLP-1 prescription growth, Ozempic/Wegovy adoption rates, demographic penetration Confidence: 0.95

Key Metrics3 rows
MetricCadenceWhat It SignalsUpdate Source
Average Same-Store Sales Growth (SSSG) for Pizza & Wings QSRsQuarterlyAccelerating growth indicates strong consumer demand and effective menu innovation, supporting a bullish view. Declining growth signals macro pressures, increased competition, or potential GLP-1 impact, indicating a bearish trend.LLM_Approved
Net Unit Growth Rate for Pizza & Wings QSRsQuarterly/AnnuallyHigh growth rates signal successful market penetration and strong franchisee confidence, supporting a bullish view. Slowing growth indicates potential market saturation or operational challenges, signaling a bearish trend.LLM_Approved
GLP-1 Drug Prescription & Adoption RatesQuarterly/Annually (or as available)Increasing adoption rates signal a growing long-term threat to demand for high-calorie, indulgent foods, indicating a bearish trend for the theme. Stagnation or decline would be bullish.LLM_Approved
Upcoming Catalysts30 rows
CatalystEstimated TimingEstimated Date StartEstimated Date EndWhy It MattersTicker Or Theme SpecificSource TypesContributing TickersMention CountBase ScoreSource WeightSpecificity WeightMacro BridgeMacro Bridge MultiplierTheme ScoreDate AggregatedManual OverrideBridge Mention CountTheme Base ScoreTheme Importance ScoreCatalyst SourceCatalyst IDTranscript DateSource Type
The upcoming Q2 2026 earnings season will provide critical updates on consumer spending trends, inflationary pressures, and same-store sales performance across major restaurant and delivery platform chains.Late July - Early August 20262026-07-202026-08-06This catalyst is highly important at the theme level as it will offer the latest insights into the health of the consumer and the overall operating environment for pizza, wings, and other delivery-focused restaurants. Commentary from Domino's, Yum! Brands, Wingstop, Casey's, DoorDash, Uber, and Papa John's management on macroeconomic headwinds will be crucial for assessing the theme's short-term outlook.Themetheme_composerDASH, DPZ, MTY.TO, PZA.TO, PZZA, RAVE, UBER, WING, CASY, YUM100.00071.181.05Economic1.250.10682026-07-18False21.8056279.6402Theme composer
Ongoing developments and increased public or industry discussion regarding the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on consumer eating habits and demand for high-calorie foods.Ongoing, with potential for significant updates/discussions throughout H2 20262026-07-012026-12-31GLP-1 drugs pose a significant long-term threat to companies reliant on high-calorie, 'crave-worthy' food sales, such as Yum! Brands, Wingstop, Domino's, and Papa John's. While not a single event, increasing adoption rates, new research, or heightened industry commentary on observed shifts in consumer behavior (e.g., reduced calorie intake, more selective eating) could fundamentally alter demand for the theme's core offerings.Themetheme_composerYUM, WING, DPZ, PZZA, RAVE, CASY60.00021.180.92Economic1.250.02582026-07-18False21.0015135.9089Theme composer
Domino's is accelerating its product innovation calendar, with new pizza-focused items and marketing adjustments planned for the second half of 2026 to drive U.S. same-store sales.Q3-Q4 20262026-07-012026-12-31Following a weaker-than-expected Q1, Domino's is relying on 'bold' product innovation to achieve its 3% U.S. same-store sales target for 2026. Successful new product launches, such as the Parmesan Stuffed Crust and new 'American Classics' pizzas, could significantly boost DPZ's performance and potentially signal renewed demand and competitive strength within the broader pizza delivery market, impacting PZZA and RAVE.Themetheme_composerDPZ, PZZA, RAVE, YUM40.00011.180.92Regulatory/Policy, Economic1.6880.02432026-07-18False10.6009110.0892Theme composer
Casey's General Stores expects to largely complete the conversion of CEFCO stores to the Casey's brand.largely complete by the end of this fiscal year (FY27)2026-05-012027-04-30The completion of these conversions is expected to lead to an acceleration in performance and 'upside' in inside store sales in the subsequent fiscal year (FY28), impacting revenue and profitability.TickerCASY (ticker)CASY_b21f2cb12026-06-09earnings_transcript
Continued rollout and full scaling of Casey's chicken wing program across its store system.2 more years of just rolling it out across the system before we get fully scaled2026-06-092028-06-09Management believes the wing business has the potential to be as large as the pizza business long-term, suggesting significant incremental sales and increased prepared food order frequency, driving revenue and margin growth.TickerCASY (ticker)CASY_42d3e67d2026-06-09earnings_transcript
Continued volatility in oil-producing regions and wholesale fuel costs, impacting retail fuel margins and the sustainability of elevated industry-wide CPGs.for the course of the year (FY27) and beyond2026-05-012027-04-30Fuel margins are a significant contributor to Casey's profitability. Sustained high margins or further volatility could materially impact overall financial results and investor sentiment.ThemeCASY (ticker)CASY_4a4379cd2026-06-09earnings_transcript
Retail gasoline prices reaching or exceeding $5 per gallon.if retail prices get high, we start to see premium sales dip a little bit2026-06-092027-04-30Historically, prices at this level have led to 'demand destruction' in fuel, which could negatively impact fuel gallon sales and potentially inside store traffic, affecting revenue.ThemeCASY (ticker)CASY_800ee6642026-06-09earnings_transcript
Casey's General Stores' execution and success in opening at least 120 new stores through an an even mix of M&A and new construction in fiscal year 2027.fiscal 20272026-05-012027-04-30New unit growth is a key pillar of Casey's strategy, contributing significantly to EBITDA growth. Successful execution and integration of these new stores will be crucial for achieving financial targets.TickerCASY (ticker)CASY_eb42b9e02026-06-09earnings_transcript
Continued growth and increased market share on DoorDash and other aggregator platforms, where Domino's was not fully rolled out until mid-2025 and has not yet reached its fair share.In 20262026-01-012026-12-31Increased market share and sales from aggregator platforms could significantly boost Domino's overall performance. Achieving substantial growth is bullish, while underperforming expectations would be bearish.TickerDPZ (ticker)DPZ_a416475f2026-02-23earnings_transcript
Turnaround of Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DPE) business under its recently announced new CEO, Andrew Gregory.remains a top priority2026-02-232026-12-31The performance of DPE is crucial for Domino's to return to its international algorithm for same-store sales and net store growth. A successful turnaround is bullish, while continued struggles would be bearish.TickerDPZ (ticker)DPZ_d785c5382026-02-23earnings_transcript
Continued pressured macro environment impacting consumer spending and demand.throughout 20262026-01-012026-12-31A challenging macro environment could make it harder for Domino's to achieve its sales and profit targets. A worsening environment would be bearish, while stabilization as expected would be neutral.ThemeDPZ (ticker)DPZ_85d6fc962026-02-23earnings_transcript
Launch of two or more new product innovations in line with the 'Hungry For More' strategy.this year2026-01-012026-12-31Successful product innovations can drive sales, attract new customers, and enhance brand perception, leading to increased market share and profitability (bullish). Unsuccessful launches could have the opposite effect (bearish).TickerDPZ (ticker)DPZ_932f95742026-02-23earnings_transcript
Potential impact of GLP-1 weight loss drugs on consumer demand for Domino's products, especially as pill forms become more available.coming out in pill form2026-01-012026-12-31Widespread adoption of GLP-1s could reduce demand for high-calorie foods like pizza, negatively impacting sales (bearish). Domino's is monitoring this trend and prepared for menu innovation if needed.ThemeDPZ (ticker)DPZ_dd211fa42026-02-23earnings_transcript
Domino's Pizza's launch of new, unplanned pizza product innovations and adjustments to its marketing calendar.starting as soon as May you're going to see things on the calendar or in media from Domino's that weren't on our calendar to start the year. ... product innovation we're bringing in the second half of the year2026-05-012026-12-31These initiatives are critical for driving U.S. same-store sales growth and achieving the company's updated guidance, potentially elevating the brand and impacting investor sentiment. Success would be bullish, while underperformance would be bearish.TickerDPZ (ticker)DPZ_5d5782662026-04-27earnings_transcript
Domino's Pizza's U.S. same-store sales performance for the full year 2026 against the updated 'low single digits' guidance.for the year2026-01-012026-12-31U.S. same-store sales growth is a crucial indicator of domestic demand and the effectiveness of company strategies. Meeting or exceeding this guidance would be bullish, while falling short would be bearish, impacting valuation and investor sentiment.TickerDPZ (ticker)DPZ_d37f83832026-04-27earnings_transcript
Domino's Pizza's International same-store sales growth for the full year 2026 against the updated 'low single digits' guidance.for the year2026-01-012026-12-31International same-store sales growth is a significant driver of overall company performance. Achieving or exceeding this guidance would be bullish, while underperforming would be bearish, impacting global market penetration and growth algorithm.TickerDPZ (ticker)DPZ_3941b5892026-04-27earnings_transcript
Domino's Pizza's achievement of 175+ net new U.S. stores and approximately 800 net new international stores in 2026.for the year2026-01-012026-12-31Net store growth directly contributes to total retail sales and market share expansion. Meeting or exceeding these targets signals strong expansion and franchisee confidence, which is bullish for long-term growth.TickerDPZ (ticker)DPZ_d44c6ba22026-04-27earnings_transcript
Domino's Pizza's operating income growth for the full year 2026 against the updated 'mid- to high single digits' guidance.for the year2026-01-012026-12-31Operating income growth is a direct measure of overall profitability and financial health. Achieving or exceeding this guidance would be bullish, while falling short would be bearish, impacting valuation.TickerDPZ (ticker)DPZ_7395f9632026-04-27earnings_transcript
Additional store closures by Domino's public pizza competitors beyond the roughly 450 already announced for 2026.Over time, ... in future quarters and future years coming up2026-04-282028-04-28Increased competitor closures can lead to market share gains and higher sales for Domino's, positively impacting its growth trajectory and franchisee profitability, which is bullish.TickerDPZ (ticker)DPZ_4fe914342026-04-27earnings_transcript
Evolution of the macroeconomic environment, particularly consumer sentiment and the persistence of value-seeking behavior across the QSR industry.for the rest of this year2026-04-282026-12-31A sustained pressured macro environment and intense value competition could continue to impact consumer spending decisions and Domino's sales, potentially hindering its ability to meet guidance. Improvement would be bullish, deterioration would be bearish.ThemeDPZ (ticker)DPZ_a66c6d632026-04-27earnings_transcript
Opening of Wingstop's first flagship restaurant in Milan, building on momentum from the House of Flavors concept.following Olympics2026-03-012026-12-31Represents continued international expansion and validation of the brand's portability in a new key market, contributing to global unit growth and system-wide sales.TickerWING (ticker)WING_a8e7b5b42026-02-18earnings_transcript
Wingstop's entry into the Indian market with a new brand partner.targeting an entry in 20262026-01-012026-12-31India represents a significant long-term opportunity for over 1,000 restaurants, fueling global unit development and system-wide sales growth.TickerWING (ticker)WING_9ccd48092026-02-18earnings_transcript
Wingstop achieving its guidance of 15-16% global unit growth for fiscal year 2026.global unit growth to be between 15% and 16% in 20262026-01-012026-12-31Exceeds the long-term algorithm of 10%+ unit growth, indicating strong expansion and potential for increased system-wide sales and royalty revenue. Failure to meet this target could negatively impact investor sentiment.TickerWING (ticker)WING_4299cc922026-02-18earnings_transcript
Wingstop's system-wide restaurants consistently achieving the new operating standard of a 10-minute speed of service, enabled by the Wingstop Smart Kitchen.as we progress through the year2026-01-012026-12-31Expected to drive improved customer frequency, increased transactions (especially at lunch), better delivery times, and ultimately contribute to a return to same-store sales growth and higher Average Unit Volumes (AUVs). Inconsistent execution could hinder these goals.TickerWING (ticker)WING_1a265c342026-02-18earnings_transcript
Rollout of KFC's 'Quench' beverage platform to approximately 3,000 stores globally.approximately 3,000 stores this year2026-02-042026-12-31This initiative aims to drive frequency and increase average check size, potentially boosting KFC's average unit volumes and overall system sales. Successful adoption could be bullish for revenue and margins.TickerYUM (ticker)YUM_b5fa07a52026-02-04earnings_transcript
Completion of the strategic review of options for the Pizza Hut division.this year2026-02-042026-12-31The outcome of this review could lead to significant strategic changes for Pizza Hut, potentially impacting its future structure, growth trajectory, and Yum! Brands' overall portfolio focus, which could materially affect valuation and investor sentiment.TickerYUM (ticker)YUM_24830c4a2026-02-04earnings_transcript
Deployment of Byte's Smart Ops bundle in KFC UK and the Digital Ordering bundle in KFC Australia.In 20262026-02-042026-12-31Successful deployment and adoption of these technology platforms are expected to improve operational efficiency, enhance consumer satisfaction, and contribute to higher same-store sales growth and stronger unit economics for KFC in these key international markets.TickerYUM (ticker)YUM_fc73b56b2026-02-04earnings_transcript
Wingstop's Q2 2026 earnings call will provide initial commentary and data on the national launch performance of its Club Wingstop loyalty program.Late July 20262026-07-292026-07-29This program, officially launched in May 2026, is a key strategic initiative for Wingstop to drive customer frequency, retention, and average unit volumes. Management commentary on early enrollment, engagement, and any observed impact on sales will be closely watched as a model for digital engagement within the theme, especially given the prior promising pilot results. Success here could provide a blueprint for other delivery-focused restaurants.Tickertheme_composerWING10.01.181.051.00.00062026-07-18False10.00010.0068Theme composer
Andrew Gregory begins as CEO of Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DPE) and ongoing efforts to turn around DPE's business performance.Andrew Gregory, the new CEO of Domino's Pizza Enterprises actually starts in August, ... continuing to lean in with them there2026-08-012027-08-01A successful turnaround of DPE is crucial for improving international same-store sales growth and the overall international algorithm for Domino's. Improvement would be bullish, continued drag would be bearish.TickerDPZ (ticker)DPZ_66546cbc2026-04-27earnings_transcript
Casey's General Stores will report its first-quarter fiscal year 2027 results, providing an update on its aggressive unit expansion and prepared food business growth, particularly the performance of its wings program.Early to Mid-September 20262026-09-042026-09-14This earnings report will provide the first look at Casey's performance in its new fiscal year, offering crucial updates on inside same-store sales growth (guided 2-5%), fuel CPG margins (mid-$0.40s per gallon for modeling), and progress on its aggressive unit expansion strategy (at least 120 new stores). These metrics are key indicators of the company's financial health and the success of its diversified prepared food strategy, which includes pizza and wings.Themetheme_composerCASY10.00011.181.05Regulatory/Policy1.350.00932026-07-18False10.00050.089Theme composer
NotesTable

New Initiative

DateTypeCommentDetailSentimentTickers
2026-07-18Theme Refresh SynthesisThe theme remains challenged by persistent consumer uncertainty, intense competition, and the long-term GLP-1 drug threat. DPZ's Q1 miss and lowered guidance underscore these headwinds, despite planned H2 pizza innovation. CASY's strong unit growth and successful wings program, showing significant incrementality, highlight effective diversification. WING's Club Wingstop launch is a key digital initiative, but macro pressures persist.

New Initiative

Mixed to BearishDPZ, CASY, WING, YUM

Constituents

  • Casey's General Stores, Inc.
  • DPZT3
    Domino's Pizza, Inc.
  • Wingstop Inc.
  • YUMT3
    Yum! Brands, Inc.
  • DASHT3
    · no notes yet
  • MTY.TOT3
    · no notes yet
  • PZA.TOT3
    · no notes yet
  • PZZAT3
    · no notes yet
  • RAVET3
    · no notes yet
  • UBERT3
    · no notes yet