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Natural Disasters Long '24: C&E
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Theme thesis · 2/5 sections · Tickers 0 with notes · 4 pending
Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).
Bull / Bear DetailsWith the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecasted to be above average, following the destructive 2024 season, there is an anticipated surge in demand for infra
Thesis
With the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecasted to be above average, following the destructive 2024 season, there is an anticipated surge in demand for infrastructure repair and rebuilding. This scenario positions construction and engineering firms such as Jacobs Solutions (J), Fluor Corporation (FLR), AECOM (ACM), and Procore Technologies (PCOR) to benefit from increased project volumes and revenue growth.
Bull case
The 2024 hurricane season was the third-costliest on record, with damages estimated at over $500 billion, highlighting the extensive need for reconstruction efforts .
Colorado State University predicts an above-average 2025 hurricane season, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, indicating continued high demand for infrastructure services .
The transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, combined with warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, suggests a heightened risk of U.S. landfalls, particularly in the Southeast
Bear case
Storm intensity misses forecasts: Lower-than-expected damage reduces demand for emergency repair projects.
Contract execution delays: Bottlenecks in labor or permitting stall infrastructure rebuild timelines.
Federal aid disbursement slows: Political gridlock or budgeting constraints delay project funding.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Cadence | What It Signals | Update Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonresidential Public Construction Starts in Gulf/Southeast | Monthly | Captures ramp-up in government and infrastructure rebuilds in storm-affected regions. | Google_Sheets |
| Backlog Index for Engineering Services | Quarterly | Higher backlog signals rising demand and new bookings from post-disaster recovery efforts. | Google_Sheets |
| FEMA Disaster Relief Obligations | Monthly | Indicates scale and urgency of federal rebuild funding disbursed. | Google_Sheets |
Constituents
- ACMT3· no notes yet
- FLRT3· no notes yet
- JT3· no notes yet
- PCORT3· no notes yet