Home / Themes / Modern Warfare '26: Military Connectivity & Tactical Networks
Modern Warfare '26: Military Connectivity & Tactical Networks
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Theme thesis · 2 uploads · 5/5 sections · Tickers 10 with notes · 5 pending
Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).
Bull / Bear DetailsThe investment thesis for Modern Warfare '26 remains strongly compelling, driven by a generational surge in global defense spending, rapid technological advance
Thesis
The investment thesis for Modern Warfare '26 remains strongly compelling, driven by a generational surge in global defense spending, rapid technological advancements in AI, space, and tactical networks, and escalating geopolitical tensions that necessitate urgent military modernization. The bull case is more compelling.
Bull case
Global military expenditure is experiencing a generational surge, with projections to exceed $2.6 trillion in 2026 and reach $2.9 trillion by the end of the decade. The FY2026 US defense budget is confirmed at over $1 trillion, and the FY2027 request proposes a historic $1.5 trillion, representing a 44% increase over FY2026. NATO members are also committed to increasing defense spending, with all 32 members (except Spain) agreeing to raise annual defense-related spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.
Military superiority is increasingly defined by advanced technology, driving substantial investment into AI-augmented decision-making, secure tactical networks, directed energy weapons, and autonomous systems. Key trends for 2026 include the integration of Agentic AI and Generative AI for autonomous planning and edge AI, hypersonic weapons, and advanced satellite communications. Recent earnings reinforce advancements in multi-orbit satellite communications, assured PNT solutions, AI-driven autonomous systems, counter-UAS, and high-power laser R&D.
Persistent and escalating global conflicts and rising instability are creating urgent demand for advanced military capabilities. Elevated geopolitical risks include intensified drone and missile attacks in the ongoing Ukraine war, a critical and volatile Middle East crisis involving direct military confrontations and threats to global trade routes, and increased tensions in the Indo-Pacific. This environment necessitates urgent military modernization and replenishment of depleted munitions stockpiles.
Bear case
Despite historic proposed increases in global defense spending, significant political and legislative uncertainty remains, particularly regarding the FY2027 US defense budget. The administration's proposal to route $350 billion of the $1.5 trillion request through budget reconciliation could face substantial political challenges, potentially weakening bipartisan support and leading to shifts in line items and funding impacts.
The rapid evolution of low-cost, high-impact threats, particularly drones, poses a continuous challenge to existing defense systems. The significant cost asymmetry between expensive interceptors and cheap adversaries necessitates ongoing, rapid innovation to develop economically viable and adaptive countermeasures. The rapid pace of technological evolution also means current defense investments risk rapid obsolescence, requiring continuous, expensive R&D and agile adaptation to new threats.
Significant supply chain vulnerabilities and industrial capacity constraints persist, posing a risk to scaling up defense production. Challenges include long lead times, capacity limitations, inflation, low visibility into lower-tier suppliers for critical components and raw materials, and geopolitical disruptions. Furthermore, the increasing demand for cybersecurity operational talent and the need for compliance with new cybersecurity standards like CMMC 2.0 create additional bottlenecks.
Overview
Hiring Trend Watchpoints
Investors should monitor hiring trends for highly specialized, cleared talent, with a sustained and increasing demand for AI/ML engineers, particularly those with expertise in Agentic AI and Generative AI for autonomous planning, decision-making, and action coordination in multi-domain operations. Cybersecurity professionals with CMMC 2.0 experience remain critical, with a widening skills gap demanding industry-aligned education. There is also significant demand for embedded systems engineers (C/C++, STM32, RTOS, ArduPilot), hardware/PCB design engineers, and RF engineers for electronic warfare and communications systems. Space systems architects, signals intelligence specialists, and manufacturing roles (mechanical, process, quality control engineers) are also in high demand. Workforce evidence, such as the eightfold growth in Ukraine's Defense Tech sector in two years, highlights the global talent scarcity.
**To confirm theme strengthening:** Look for a sustained increase in job postings for these specialized roles on platforms like ClearanceJobs, LinkedIn, and company career pages, along with reports of successful recruitment and retention of cleared talent. Growth in specialized defense recruiting firms and academic programs tailored to these skills would also be bullish.
**To warn of theme weakening/deterioration:** A plateau or decline in job postings for these critical roles, a shift towards less specialized positions, or reports of significant delays in program execution due to talent shortages would be bearish. Increased reliance on foreign talent without proper clearance or a slowdown in CMMC 2.0 adoption could also signal deterioration.
Forum Watchlist
- Reddit CommunityHigh
Geopolitical analysis, military technology discussions, strategic implications of new systems, emerging threats, and active conflict updates.
- Reddit CommunityMedium
General military news, personnel discussions, broader defense topics.
- Reddit CommunityMedium
Defense industry news, contracts, company analysis, supply chain issues.
- Twitter/XHigh
Geopolitical analysis, defense policy, military strategy, expert commentary.
- LinkedIn GroupsMedium
Industry networking, job trends, business development.
Second Order Trends
Several second-order and emerging trends are significantly shaping the Modern Warfare '26 theme. Firstly, the rapid advancement and integration of **Agentic AI and Generative AI** are moving beyond basic analytics to autonomous planning, decision-making, and action coordination in multi-domain operations, including the development of 'agentic teammates' or AI-enabled digital assistants to support operator performance. This is exemplified by Ondas's 'Sky Weaver AI' platform and Palantir partnership, aiming for mission autonomy across diverse systems.
Secondly, **Quantum-Resilient and Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)** is emerging as critical, with U.S. Department of War contractors expected to begin quantum readiness assessments and PQC algorithm integration appearing in major platform upgrades by 2026. This underscores the urgent need for future-proof secure communications.
Thirdly, the shift towards **Edge AI and Hybrid Cloud Architectures** is gaining momentum, with processing moving to local, rugged, power-conscious systems at the tactical edge. Hybrid architectures are unifying cloud scalability with edge immediacy, enabling cloud-native containers on tactical devices and data orchestration platforms to bridge edge intelligence with enterprise analytics.
Fourthly, **Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA)** is becoming the standard, with full integration into operational technology environments, including tactical communications and mission platforms, mandated by the U.S. Department of War.
Fifthly, the **Internet of Military Things (IoMT) and 5G Connectivity** are enabling resilient, low-latency edge networks, connecting millions of battlefield sensors for real-time data fusion and tactical awareness. Private 5G networks are delivering critical tactical communications.
Finally, the maturation and deployment of **Directed Energy Weapons (DEW)**, particularly high-power laser systems, are accelerating as a cost-effective countermeasure against drone threats. Elbit Systems, for instance, has secured contracts for airborne high-power laser systems for military aircraft, with systems like XCalibur and Sting being developed for fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters.
Search Keywords Brand Product
- laser weapon system
- counter drone technology
- military satellite communications
- underwater drone detection
- missile defense system
- electronic warfare equipment
- quantum sensor military
- Golden Dome missile defense system
- Iron Beam
- HELSI
- Replicator 2.0
- Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI)
- Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA)
- Resilient PNT
- Agentic AI for defense
- Sky Weaver AI
- Equatys satellite
- digital common ground modem
- multi-orbit satellite
- high-power laser weapon
- autonomous counter-UAS
- space-based ISR
- ViaSat-3
- SAMP/T NG
- PULS rocket artillery
- Iridium 9604
- Iridium PNT ASIC
- NTN Direct
- MDA AURORA
- 49North C4ISR
- T-6 program
- Iraq F-16
- SkyHopper
- ICE software
- OS3 software
- Protected Tactical Satellite Global (PTSG)
- XCalibur laser system
- Sting laser system
- DCG-7000 modem
- Allerium NG911
- Mira 911 platform
- Halo platform (Elsight)
Search Keywords Policy Regulatory
- One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)
- Fiscal Primacy
- C-UAS fund
- Industrial and Technological Benefits (ITB) Policy Canada
- Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA)
- Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (CMMC) 2.0
- Blue UAS
- Space Development Agency (SDA)
- Golden Dome for America
- National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) FY2026
- FY2027 US Defense Budget
- Post-Quantum Cryptography standards
- Other Transaction Authority (OTA) defense
Search Keywords Event Phrases
- War from Home
- Red Sea attacks
- Ukraine drone attacks
- Israel-Iran conflict
- Arctic Light Exercise
- CYPHER IPT 2026
- AI for Defense Transformation Summit 2026
- NATO Summit The Hague 2025
- Agentic Warfare
- Multi-Domain Operations (MDO)
- Arctic Edge 2026
- LANPAC 2026
- Operation Epic Fury
- Shangri-La Dialogue
- DIU Project Gl
Google Trend Product Category Intent
• laser weapon system
• counter drone technology
• military satellite communications
• underwater drone detection
• missile defense system
• electronic warfare equipment
• quantum sensor military
• multi-orbit satellite
• digital common ground modem
• PNT solutions
• high-power laser weapon
• autonomous counter-UAS
• space-based ISR
• ViaSat-3
• Equatys satellite
• SAMP/T NG
• PULS rocket artillery
• Iridium NTN Direct
• MDA AURORA
• SkyHopper drone
• XCalibur laser
• Sting laser
• DCG-7000 modem
• Allerium NG911
• Mira 911 platform
• Halo communications
Google Trend Consumer Intent
• modern warfare technology
• future of military drones
• space defense news
• Arctic military strategy
• cyber warfare defense
• military AI development
• defense tech jobs
• satellite internet for military
• drone defense systems
• agentic AI military
• multi-orbit satcom
• assured PNT
• Arctic security news
• defense industrial base jobs
• Zero Trust defense
• quantum cybersecurity military
• edge AI defense
Google Trend Macro Policy Terms
• defense spending increase
• NATO defense budget
• US defense budget
• EU defense spending
• Arctic security
• NATO 5% GDP defense
• US defense spending 2027
• European defense spending
• CMMC compliance
• Zero Trust defense
• Golden Dome missile defense
• Space Development Agency funding
• defense industrial base expansion
• post-quantum cryptography defense
• DoD acquisition reform
Top datasets to track
1. SIPRI Military Expenditure Database Type: Economic Data · Provider: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Cadence: Annual (typically in April) Why it matters: Tracks global military spending trends, providing a macro view of the theme's underlying financial support. Global military expenditure reached a record $2.887 trillion in 2025 and is projected to exceed $2.6 trillion in 2026. Suggested query: SIPRI military expenditure report 2026 Confidence: High
2. US Department of Defense (DoD) Budget Documents Type: Government Data · Provider: US Department of Defense, Congress Cadence: Annual (with quarterly updates/briefings) Why it matters: Provides granular detail on US defense spending allocations, procurement, R&D, and specific program funding, directly impacting companies in the theme. The FY2027 budget request proposes a historic $1.5 trillion, representing a 44% increase over FY2026. Suggested query: FY2027 US defense budget request Confidence: High
3. NATO Defence Expenditure Database Type: Economic Data · Provider: NATO Cadence: Annual Why it matters: Monitors defense spending by NATO members, crucial for tracking European and Canadian commitment to the theme. All 32 NATO allies met or exceeded the 2% GDP target in 2025, and the alliance has set a new target of 5% of GDP on defense spending by 2035. Suggested query: NATO defense spending 2026 report Confidence: High
4. Defense Industry Job Postings Type: Alternative Data · Provider: Job boards/aggregators (e.g., Christian & Timbers, Deloitte) Cadence: Monthly/Quarterly Why it matters: Directly reflects demand for specialized skills (AI/ML, cybersecurity with CMMC 2.0, space systems, autonomous systems, embedded systems, C++ engineers, high-power laser engineers, tactical network engineers), signaling workforce expansion or contraction within the theme. Suggested query: Defense industry AI engineer job postings Confidence: High
5. Global Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) Market Size Reports Type: Market Research Data · Provider: Market research reports (e.g., Fortune Business Insights, Coherent Market Insights, Mordor Intelligence) Cadence: Annually Why it matters: Tracks the growth and adoption of critical defense systems like high-energy lasers and high-power microwaves, directly indicating the maturation and market penetration of a key technological component of modern warfare. Suggested query: Directed Energy Weapons market size 2026 forecast Confidence: High
Key Metrics
| Metric | Cadence | What It Signals | Update Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Defense Spending (USD billions and as % of GDP) | Annually (SIPRI typically in April, IISS in February) | Increasing global defense spending indicates a sustained commitment to military modernization and readiness, supporting the theme's bullish outlook. Declining trends would signal a bearish shift. | LLM_Approved |
| Global Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) Market Size (USD billions) | Annually (market reports), Annually (budget documents) | Growth in the DEW market and increased government investment signals accelerated adoption and technological maturation, reinforcing the theme's bullish trajectory. | LLM_Approved |
| Investment in Military Space Programs (USD billions) and Number of Military/Dual-Use Satellite Launches | Annually (budget documents, annual reports), Quarterly/Annually (launch data) | Rising investment and launches in military space assets indicate the growing importance of space for ISR, communication, and missile defense, strengthening the theme's long-term potential. | LLM_Approved |
Upcoming Catalysts
| Catalyst ID | Estimated Timing | Estimated Date Start | Estimated Date End | Catalyst | Why It Matters | Ticker Or Theme Specific | Transcript Date | Source Type | Catalyst Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONDS_9a499cb2 | 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Management guidance target of at least $110 million in revenue for fiscal year 2026. | Hitting or exceeding the $110M target would validate the scaling thesis, materially improve revenue visibility and investor sentiment; missing it would call into question backlog conversion, margin leverage assumptions and the credibility of M&A-driven growth forecasts. | Ticker | 2025-11-13 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_74d1f53e | completed in 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | AAR Wireless Communications Committee (WCC) completion of NGHE / HOT & EOT (next‑generation Head/End Of Train) specifications in 2026. | NGHE spec completion is a theme-level regulatory/standards milestone that would accelerate vendor product finalization and railroad procurements for DOT 16 upgrades; timely completion is bullish for Ondas Networks' addressable market and future orders, while slippage would defer meaningful railroad revenue to later years. | Theme | 2025-11-13 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_460b4631 | end of Q4 (initial unit) with further deliveries in 2026 | 2025-12-01 | 2026-12-31 | Shipment of the first Northeast Corridor access production unit (Amtrak positive train control / safety‑critical application) at end of Q4, with additional deliveries scheduled in 2026. | On-schedule deliveries and acceptance by Amtrak (Northeast Corridor) would be an important reference customer and commercial proof‑point for Ondas Networks, potentially unlocking larger vendor/railroad orders; missed shipments or acceptance issues would delay revenue recognition and undermine credibility for DOT 16 commercialization. | Ticker | 2025-11-13 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_1c1f40b7 | full year 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Ondas Holdings Inc. raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to at least $390 million. | This indicates stronger-than-expected business performance and increased confidence in future revenue generation, partly driven by strategic acquisitions, which is bullish for valuation and investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_b0e7fea4 | over the course of 2026 | 2026-05-28 | 2026-12-31 | Ondas plans to introduce new systems of systems capabilities across its portfolio. | New product introductions can expand addressable markets, drive revenue growth, and enhance the company's competitive position in the unmanned and autonomous systems sector. This is bullish. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_c03cfd96 | over the course of 2026 | 2026-05-28 | 2026-12-31 | Ondas expects cash efficiency to improve as revenue and gross profit scale. | Improved cash efficiency indicates better financial management and operational leverage, which is bullish for the company's financial health and long-term sustainability. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_b20fa2af | upcoming quarter | 2026-04-01 | 2026-06-30 | Ondas anticipates higher cash usage and elevated adjusted EBITDA losses in the second quarter of 2026 due to continued investment ahead of growth and spending related to recent acquisitions. | While necessary for growth, higher cash usage and losses could impact short-term liquidity and investor perception of cash burn, potentially bearish if not managed effectively. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_23795734 | through 2026 and beyond | 2026-05-28 | 2027-12-31 | Ondas expects its product companies to maintain profitability, though quarterly results may fluctuate. | Sustained profitability at the product company level demonstrates the underlying strength and efficiency of the core businesses, providing a solid foundation for overall company profitability and is bullish. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_881817cc | during the first half of 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-06-30 | Ondas expects operating expenses at both the Ondas Inc. and OAS levels to continue increasing during the first half of 2026 due to investments in leadership, infrastructure, systems integration, and operational scale. | While these investments are deemed essential for long-term growth, increased operating expenses could impact short-term profitability and cash flow, potentially seen as bearish if not clearly linked to future revenue generation. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_76a00f58 | Q2, Q3 and Q4 | 2026-04-01 | 2026-12-31 | Ondas anticipates strong sequential revenue growth in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2026. | Consistent sequential revenue growth demonstrates strong demand, effective execution, and successful conversion of backlog, which is highly bullish for investor confidence and valuation. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_cf7d1047 | over time | 2026-05-28 | 2027-12-31 | Ondas expects gross margins to trend higher towards 50% as the company scales and achieves greater efficiencies. | Improving gross margins indicate better product mix, cost management, and pricing power, which is bullish for profitability and financial health. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_7a9123d4 | as we're moving through the year in terms of systems of systems and integrated solutions. | 2026-05-28 | 2026-12-31 | Ondas plans to introduce additional systems of systems and integrated solutions beyond Iron Wave. | Expanding the portfolio with integrated solutions can open new market opportunities, increase customer stickiness, and drive higher revenue per deployment, which is bullish for growth and competitive positioning. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_cae8ff66 | how effectively Ondas integrates Omnisys and how quickly these AI tools are embedded into existing defense offerings | 2026-05-27 | 2027-05-27 | Ondas's integration of Omnisys's AI battlefield decision-making software into its autonomous defense platform. | Successful integration will shift Ondas towards a higher-margin, software-driven defense technology model, enhancing its AI capabilities and potentially changing how revenue is earned and contracts are structured. This is bullish. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_2d3a8a32 | sometime in 2026, with the first by mid-year | 2026-04-01 | 2026-06-30 | Delivery and launch of 9 satellites for Globalstar's initial LEO constellation. | Represents a significant revenue recognition event and fulfillment of a key contract, demonstrating execution capability despite prior delays. | Ticker | 2025-11-14 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_0ef25ddb | continues to discuss the potential application of liquidated damages | 2025-11-15 | 2026-12-31 | Resolution of discussions regarding potential liquidated damages with Globalstar due to satellite delivery delays. | Determines the financial impact of the delays, potentially affecting margins and profitability. | Ticker | 2025-11-14 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_59bdb925 | Phase C will see us completing the final design before we move on to Phase D | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Completion of Phase C (final design) and commencement of Phase D (construction, assembly, integration, and test) for the Canadarm3 program. | Represents significant progress on a major government contract, de-risking the program and potentially leading to further revenue recognition as it moves into the construction phase. | Ticker | 2025-11-14 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_8e6fc645 | intends to vigorously defend itself | 2025-11-15 | 2028-12-31 | Resolution of the proposed class action claim related to the EchoStar contract cancellation and insider share sales. | The outcome could have a material financial impact on MDA Ltd. (e.g., legal costs, potential damages) and affect investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2025-11-14 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_938948c3 | over the next year | 2025-11-15 | 2026-11-14 | Award of a new LEO satellite constellation contract. | A new major contract award would significantly boost MDA's backlog, provide long-term revenue visibility, and positively impact investor sentiment, especially after the EchoStar cancellation. | Ticker | 2025-11-14 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_71e492c7 | begin delivering a small number of satellites in 2026 with deliveries ramping up in 2027. | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Initial satellite deliveries for the Telesat Lightspeed program. | Successful initial deliveries would validate the program's progress and MDA's manufacturing capabilities, positively impacting revenue and investor sentiment. Delays could negatively impact. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_f57a321c | tracking towards the revised time line established in Q4 for deliveries this year. | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Delivery of 17 Globalstar replenishment satellites for the initial Globalstar program. | Successful and timely delivery is crucial to avoid further liquidated damages and positively impact revenue and customer relations. Further delays would be bearish. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_04cfc1ac | in the coming months | 2026-03-01 | 2026-06-30 | NASA's release of the procurement call for the next phase of Commercial LEO Destination (CLD) development. | This call will define future opportunities for MDA's robotics and space operations business, potentially leading to new contracts for SKYMAKER robotics compatibility with commercial space stations. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_f1d1f6c8 | CSA also announced its intention to further contract MDA Space | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Award of the full mission contract by the Canadian Space Agency to build, test, and launch the RADARSAT constellation mission replenishment satellite (RADARSAT+ initiative). | Securing this full contract would significantly boost MDA's Geointelligence backlog and revenue, solidifying its role in Canada's space infrastructure. Failure to secure it would be bearish. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_f023d7c3 | within that bucket over the next 24 months | 2026-03-01 | 2028-02-29 | MDA securing firm contracts from the $10 billion portion of its pipeline that includes downselected government opportunities and follow-on contracts. | Securing these contracts would significantly increase MDA's backlog and provide long-term revenue visibility, validating its competitive position in key government and defense markets. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_0ce53d85 | still possible for sure | 2026-03-01 | 2026-12-31 | Announcement of a new prime contractor award for a large commercial LEO satellite constellation. | A large commercial constellation contract would significantly boost MDA's backlog, demonstrate continued strong demand for its satellite systems, and positively impact revenue and investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_6c8e7c8c | could be announced at any time kind of a thing | 2026-03-01 | 2026-12-31 | NASA's announcement of the definitive award for the Lunar Terrain Vehicle Services (LTVS) demonstration mission, potentially selecting a single provider or allocating a significant portion of the $4.6 billion contract. | Securing a substantial portion of this contract would be a significant win for MDA's Robotics & Space Operations, validating its lunar robotics capabilities and opening up substantial long-term revenue opportunities. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| CMTL_9e685ac6 | expecting that to kick in, in the second half (of fiscal year 2026) | 2026-03-16 | 2026-07-31 | Comtech's next-generation satellite modem contract is anticipated to transition into full production. | This transition signifies a shift from low-margin engineering efforts to higher volume production, expected to improve operating margins and accelerate cash conversion cycles, which is bullish for profitability and cash flow. | Ticker | 2026-03-16 | earnings_transcript | CMTL (ticker) |
| CMTL_ffc4d1d1 | expected to begin production deliveries in this fiscal 2026 | 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-31 | Production deliveries are expected to begin for a second next-generation product, the EDIM program, which is a successor to the EBEM modem. | This represents a very long-term program with potential for tens of thousands of units, indicating significant future revenue and improved operating margins, which is bullish for long-term revenue and profitability. | Ticker | 2026-03-16 | earnings_transcript | CMTL (ticker) |
| CMTL_8af6c84a | still pending | 2026-03-16 | 2027-03-16 | Resolution of Comtech's counterclaims against former President and CEO Ken Peterman for breach of fiduciary duty, malicious prosecution, abuse of process, breach of contract, and defamation. | The outcome could result in Comtech recovering damages, positively impacting financials and investor sentiment by resolving a legal overhang, or incur further legal costs if claims are dismissed. | Ticker | 2026-03-16 | earnings_transcript | CMTL (ticker) |
| CMTL_10c150a4 | coming out shortly | 2026-03-16 | 2026-06-16 | Launch of Mira, Comtech's new cloud-based 9-1-1 call handling platform. | This new cloud-based offering in the Next-Generation 911 market could drive new customer adoption and recurring revenue streams for the Allerium segment, enhancing competitive positioning and growth. | Ticker | 2026-03-16 | earnings_transcript | CMTL (ticker) |
| ESLT_ca6881ad | for the future | 2025-10-01 | 2027-09-30 | Elbit Systems' ability to achieve targeted growth in European backlog and maintain a flattish domestic (Israel) backlog. | Success in growing European backlog is crucial for overall company growth and revenue diversification, especially if domestic demand slows post-ceasefire. Failure to achieve this could negatively impact revenue and investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2025-11-18 | earnings_transcript | ESLT (ticker) |
| ESLT_d85d365e | continue to see growth | 2025-10-01 | 2026-09-30 | Elbit Systems' Aerospace segment achieving single-digit revenue growth. | The Aerospace segment is a significant part of the business. Achieving this growth is important for overall revenue targets and demonstrates the company's ability to capitalize on U.S. defense spending and UAV demand. | Ticker | 2025-11-18 | earnings_transcript | ESLT (ticker) |
| ESLT_a6aff2ab | next year, we'll see many more orders here in Israel for ground high-power lasers. | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Receipt of 'many more orders' in Israel for ground high-power lasers following the IRON BEAM deployment. | Significant follow-on orders would confirm market acceptance and revenue potential for Elbit's directed energy solutions, impacting future revenue and backlog. | Ticker | 2025-11-18 | earnings_transcript | ESLT (ticker) |
| ESLT_90bf902e | continue to improve | 2025-10-01 | 2026-09-30 | Elbit Systems' ability to continue improving its profitability (margins) and cash conversion. | Continued margin expansion and strong cash conversion are key indicators of operational efficiency and financial health, directly impacting EPS and valuation. | Ticker | 2025-11-18 | earnings_transcript | ESLT (ticker) |
| ESLT_83b27d68 | certainly look for opportunities, for acquisitions in the U.S., we are exploring the market. | 2025-10-01 | 2027-09-30 | Elbit Systems pursuing and completing M&A transactions in the U.S. | Successful M&A could expand Elbit's U.S. market presence, product portfolio, and revenue streams, leveraging the U.S. DoD budget and potentially impacting valuation. | Ticker | 2025-11-18 | earnings_transcript | ESLT (ticker) |
| ESLT_26ff2cb6 | planning to pursue it | 2025-10-01 | 2026-09-30 | Elbit Systems securing new contracts for border protection systems in the U.S. | Winning new border protection contracts would diversify revenue, capitalize on existing capabilities, and contribute to backlog growth. | Ticker | 2025-11-18 | earnings_transcript | ESLT (ticker) |
| ESLT_208db52c | this year, we believe that we will start delivering equipment from the Ramat Beka facility. Actually, it should happen quite soon. | 2026-04-01 | 2026-12-31 | Elbit Systems expects to begin delivering equipment from its expanded Ramat Beka facility in Israel. | This event is crucial for addressing growing global capacity constraints and meeting elevated demand, potentially enabling higher revenue generation and backlog conversion. | Ticker | 2026-03-17 | earnings_transcript | ESLT (ticker) |
| ESLT_eafb3de0 | we hope to get the contract soon | 2026-04-01 | 2026-09-30 | Elbit Systems anticipates securing a significant contract from the Hellenic Armed Forces for its PULS rocket artillery system, following parliamentary approval and ongoing commercial negotiations. | This large contract, potentially worth $750 million, would add to Elbit's record backlog, further strengthening its position in the European defense market and providing future revenue visibility. | Ticker | 2026-03-17 | earnings_transcript | ESLT (ticker) |
| HO.PA_153249de | operational as early as 2027, pending regulatory approval | 2026-03-14 | 2027-12-31 | Securing regulatory approvals from competition authorities and European regulators for the BROMO Project, a joint venture between Thales, Airbus, and Leonardo to create a leading European space player. | Approval is crucial for the formation of the joint venture, which aims to strengthen Europe's strategic autonomy in space, boost innovation, and enhance competitiveness against global players, potentially opening new growth avenues for Thales. | Ticker | 2026-03-03 | earnings_transcript | HO.PA (ticker) |
| HO.PA_5734857f | Another key area of focus in 2026 will be to restore growth in our cyber business. ... we believe that we should see growth accelerating throughout 2026. | 2026-03-14 | 2026-12-31 | Thales' ability to restore organic sales growth in its Cyber & Digital segment, particularly in Cyber Products, following challenges from sales force integration and staff turnover. | Restoring growth in Cyber is a key priority for management and essential for value creation, impacting the segment's revenue and profitability and overall group performance. | Ticker | 2026-03-03 | earnings_transcript | HO.PA (ticker) |
| HO.PA_0355ed80 | on the verge of, I would say, launching new solutions, leveraging Agentic AI | 2026-03-14 | 2026-12-31 | Launch of new cyber security solutions by Thales that leverage Agentic AI capabilities. | These new solutions are expected to enhance the efficiency of Thales' cyber products against cyber attacks, potentially strengthening its competitive edge and driving sales in the cyber market. | Ticker | 2026-03-03 | earnings_transcript | HO.PA (ticker) |
| IRDM_ac247743 | commercial availability in June | 2026-06-01 | 2026-06-30 | Commercial availability of the Iridium 9604 tri-mode module. | This new module is expected to accelerate IoT subscriber growth by reducing integration costs and targeting new cost-sensitive markets, potentially boosting commercial IoT revenue. | Ticker | 2026-04-23 | earnings_transcript | IRDM (ticker) |
| IRDM_85be6c53 | expect they will exercise their option to extend the EMSS contracts for a period of 6 months at current rates | 2026-04-01 | 2026-09-30 | US government decision to exercise the 6-month extension option for the Enhanced Mobile Satellite Services (EMSS) contract. | While expected, the formal exercise of the option ensures continued revenue at current rates for an additional six months, bridging to a new long-term contract and providing revenue stability. | Ticker | 2026-04-23 | earnings_transcript | IRDM (ticker) |
| IRDM_39655db0 | potential for upside there in terms of our '26 guide | 2026-04-23 | 2026-12-31 | Securing a larger-than-anticipated PNT order. | This order is not currently factored into the 2026 guidance and represents potential upside to the full-year hosted payload and other data revenue forecast. | Ticker | 2026-04-23 | earnings_transcript | IRDM (ticker) |
| LHX_c268026f | in 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | L3Harris's planned Initial Public Offering (IPO) of its Missile Solutions business, which will create a majority-owned public company with the Department of War as an anchor investor. | This strategic action is expected to unlock value for shareholders, drive business growth, and significantly expand missile production capacity, impacting valuation and future revenue trajectory. | Ticker | 2026-01-29 | earnings_transcript | LHX (ticker) |
| LHX_214c492f | in 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | The conversion of the Department of War's $1 billion preferred security investment into a single-digit equity ownership stake in L3Harris's Missile Solutions business following its planned 2026 IPO. | This investment provides capital for capacity expansion and signals strong government backing, which could positively impact investor sentiment and the business's long-term growth prospects. | Ticker | 2026-01-29 | earnings_transcript | LHX (ticker) |
| LHX_4dc6b638 | upcoming | 2026-04-26 | 2027-04-26 | Award of the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor (HBTSS) contract, for which L3Harris is well-positioned. | Winning this contract would reinforce L3Harris's leadership in space-based missile defense, contribute to its order book, and drive future revenue growth in its Space and Mission Systems segment. | Ticker | 2026-01-29 | earnings_transcript | LHX (ticker) |
| LHX_a12a79fa | in 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | L3Harris expects to book an initial order of over $700 million in 2026 for multi-aircraft special mission business jets for an international customer, part of a potential $2 billion-plus program. | This significant order will contribute to L3Harris's 2026 revenue guidance and backlog, demonstrating continued international demand for its ISR aircraft missionization capabilities. | Ticker | 2026-01-29 | earnings_transcript | LHX (ticker) |
| LHX_ec396fc8 | upcoming | 2026-04-26 | 2026-07-26 | The Department of War is expected to provide a spend plan to Congress for the $155 billion reconciliation, after which funds will be allocated. | This allocation of significant funding, particularly for 'Golden Dome' initiatives, will drive demand for L3Harris's space-based interceptors, satellite architectures, and missile defense solutions, potentially leading to new contract awards. | Theme | 2026-01-29 | earnings_transcript | LHX (ticker) |
| LHX_b7ed3452 | over the next several months | 2026-04-26 | 2026-10-26 | The US Army is reviewing and conducting experimentation and demos for future tactical radio programs, leading to procurement decisions. | Favorable decisions for L3Harris's software-defined radios would secure domestic contracts and contribute to revenue growth in the Communications and Spectrum Dominance (CSD) segment, reinforcing its market position. | Ticker | 2026-01-29 | earnings_transcript | LHX (ticker) |
| VSAT_5d3fcd26 | pending authorization from the FCC | 2026-06-03 | 2026-09-30 | FCC authorization for ViaSat-3 Flight 2 surface entry. This regulatory approval is required for the satellite to begin commercial operations. | Authorization enables the satellite to begin commercial service, supporting Viasat's growth initiatives in aviation, maritime, fixed services, and government SATCOM, and introducing new capabilities. | Ticker | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | VSAT (ticker) |
| VSAT_433bac1b | relatively near term | 2026-06-03 | 2026-09-30 | Finalization of basic agreements for the Equatys shared infrastructure entity with Space42 and other potential partners. | Concluding these agreements will solidify the formation of Equatys, which is anticipated to be a significant contributor to Viasat's broadband and mobile L- and S-band services, and improve capital productivity. | Ticker | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | VSAT (ticker) |
| VSAT_41e4c28f | over the first half of this fiscal year | 2026-06-03 | 2026-09-30 | Maturation of several significant opportunities in the Defense & Advanced Technologies (DAT) segment, leading to an update of the fiscal year '27 outlook. | These opportunities, spanning cryptographic security, space and mission systems, and tactical data networks, could accelerate company-wide revenue growth and materially impact Viasat's financial guidance for FY27. | Ticker | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | VSAT (ticker) |
| VSAT_9a467bac | scheduled this year | 2026-06-03 | 2026-12-31 | Launch of Telesat's first Pathfinder Lightspeed LEO satellites. | This is a key step in the development of a competing LEO constellation, impacting the competitive landscape for broadband satellite services and potentially influencing Viasat's multi-orbit strategy and terminal development. | Theme | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | VSAT (ticker) |
| VSAT_c09cba0e | will be applying to extend it | 2026-06-03 | 2027-12-31 | Decision by European regulators on Viasat's reapplication to extend its S-band spectrum rights for the European Aviation Network. | Securing an extension of S-band spectrum rights is crucial for Viasat to continue operating and modernizing its European Aviation Network, ensuring continued revenue and competitive positioning in the European short-haul market. | Ticker | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | VSAT (ticker) |
| VVX_8cfbd543 | in 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Book-to-bill ratio expected to exceed 1 in 2026 as new wins (T-6, Iraq F-16, WTRS) ramp and recompete risk remains low (~3% of revenue). | A sustained book-to-bill above 1 supports revenue visibility and can justify multiple expansion if pipeline converts. | Ticker | 2026-02-23 | earnings_transcript | VVX (ticker) |
| VVX_01724ea6 | in 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Calendar-year 2026 revenue guidance and margin targets (revenue $4.675–$4.825B; midpoint ~$4.75B; 6% growth; EBITDA and EPS targets). | Guidance sets investor expectations for top-line growth and profitability; beating or missing could impact valuation and sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-02-23 | earnings_transcript | VVX (ticker) |
| VVX_312c9f50 | throughout 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Ramp-down of Middle East contingency task orders in 2026, offset by ramp-ups in WTRS and Iraq F-16 programs. | Macro/regional shift affecting revenue mix and timing; outcomes depend on execution of offsets and new wins, impacting backlog and margin opportunities. | Ticker | 2026-02-23 | earnings_transcript | VVX (ticker) |
| VVX_ccd8c1d3 | ongoing in 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | AI partnerships with AWS and Google Public Sector to deploy AI-enabled capabilities (smart warehousing, secure AI) across the global footprint. | Potential acceleration of decision cycles, improved outcomes, and higher-margin offerings if integration delivers; positive for sentiment if executed well. | Ticker | 2026-02-23 | earnings_transcript | VVX (ticker) |
| VSAT_f421f5f9 | arrive on station in about a month | 2026-06-28 | 2026-07-31 | ViaSat-3 Flight 3 arriving on station. This is a key operational milestone before the satellite can begin testing and eventual service. | Arrival on station is a prerequisite for the satellite to begin its operational phase, which will expand Viasat's capacity in the Asia Pacific region and support growth initiatives. | Ticker | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | VSAT (ticker) |
| ONDS_d5eee21a | second half of 2026 | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | Ondas expects meaningful improvement in adjusted EBITDA losses for its Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) segment. | This indicates the OAS segment is moving towards profitability, demonstrating operating leverage and validating the growth strategy, which is bullish for the company's financial performance. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ONDS_cac9b9ad | during the second half of 2026 | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | Ondas expects its strategic growth program (including potential additional M&A like Omnisys) to contribute meaningfully to the revenue outlook in the second half of 2026. | Successful integration and revenue contribution from acquisitions will further accelerate growth and validate the M&A strategy, which is bullish for overall financial performance. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| ESLT_a7a918ed | The parliamentary window expected in the second half of 2026 will determine the contractual arrangements and initial deliveries. | 2026-07-01 | 2027-03-20 | Germany is expected to finalize a major procurement framework agreement for up to 500 EuroPULS rocket artillery systems, with contractual arrangements and initial deliveries determined during a parliamentary window. | This substantial contract, potentially worth €6 billion, would establish Germany as a key EuroPULS production hub and significantly boost Elbit's revenue and market share in Europe. | Ticker | 2026-03-17 | earnings_transcript | ESLT (ticker) |
| IRDM_f1ddb8bb | rolling out in July | 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-31 | Commercial rollout of the new PNT ASIC. | The ASIC is expected to accelerate the deployment of Iridium PNT solutions, driving growth towards the $100 million annual revenue target by 2030 and attracting major chip makers, significantly expanding the market. | Ticker | 2026-04-23 | earnings_transcript | IRDM (ticker) |
| LHX_6f7cbb36 | second half of the year | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | Closing of the sale of a 60% stake in L3Harris's civil space propulsion and power business to AE Industrial Partners. | This transaction enables L3Harris to sharpen its focus on priorities for the Department of War and allies, potentially impacting portfolio alignment and future growth strategy. Management will update guidance upon closing. | Ticker | 2026-01-29 | earnings_transcript | LHX (ticker) |
| LHX_5ebbd947 | later this year | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | L3Harris plans to file Form S-1 for the initial public offering (IPO) of its Missile Solutions business later in 2026. | The S-1 filing will provide detailed financial and operational information about the Missile Solutions business, offering greater transparency and potentially influencing investor sentiment ahead of the IPO. | Ticker | 2026-01-29 | earnings_transcript | LHX (ticker) |
| VSAT_e2503042 | once we get all the Equatys agreements wrapped up, which we expect to be relatively near term | 2026-07-01 | 2026-09-30 | Viasat and Space42 to host an investor conference focused on Equatys. | This conference will provide detailed information on Equatys' capital structure, funding, Viasat's investment, and overall budget, clarifying the financial implications and growth opportunities for investors. | Ticker | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | VSAT (ticker) |
| VSAT_d40b416d | surface entry expected in August or September of this calendar year | 2026-08-01 | 2026-09-30 | ViaSat-3 Flight 3 surface entry. This marks the commencement of commercial service for the satellite covering the Asia Pacific region. | Bringing Flight 3 into service will roughly triple Viasat's bandwidth inventory, enhance adaptive beam forming flexibility, and is expected to help stabilize the fixed broadband business. | Ticker | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | VSAT (ticker) |
| VSAT_8186a28a | as ViaSat-3 enters service, but expect continued declines until that time | 2026-08-01 | 2027-03-31 | Stabilization of Viasat's fixed broadband business, expected to occur once ViaSat-3 satellites are fully in service. | Reversing the current decline in residential fixed broadband subscribers and revenue would remove a significant headwind, contributing positively to Communication Services segment performance and overall adjusted EBITDA. | Ticker | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | VSAT (ticker) |
| ONDS_b1ba8331 | targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-12-31 | Initial integrations of the Sky Weaver AI intelligence layer across the Ondas portfolio of platforms. | Successful integration of Sky Weaver will enhance mission autonomy, create a unified intelligence system, and potentially shift the business model towards higher-margin software and outcomes, which is bullish for competitive advantage and revenue per mission. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_43005a60 | targeting a launch window for MDA CHORUS in late 2026. | 2026-10-01 | 2026-12-31 | Launch of the MDA CHORUS constellation. | The launch will enable the constellation's enhanced functionality, leading to new revenue streams from current and future customers and validating MDA's technology. | Ticker | 2025-11-14 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_6f9c3acf | launch window in late 2026 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-12-31 | Launch of the MDA CHORUS constellation (C-band and X-band SAR satellites). | Successful launch is critical for MDA's Geointelligence offerings, enabling new data services and revenue streams. Further delays or launch failure would be bearish. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| MDA.TO_85f405f5 | either at the end of 2026 or in 2027 | 2026-10-01 | 2027-12-31 | Commencement of initial satellite deliveries for the second Globalstar next-generation LEO constellation contract. | Commencement of deliveries would signify progress on this major program, contributing to revenue and demonstrating MDA's continued execution on large constellation projects. | Ticker | 2026-03-04 | earnings_transcript | MDA.TO (ticker) |
| IRDM_577f238e | closer to commercial loss later this year | 2026-10-01 | 2026-12-31 | Commercial launch of Iridium NTN Direct standards-based service. | This service, based on 3GPP Release 19 chips, is expected to expand the market for IoT applications by enabling low-cost, standards-based solutions and attracting MNOs and chip manufacturers. | Ticker | 2026-04-23 | earnings_transcript | IRDM (ticker) |
| IRDM_26c07641 | expected to come out later this year | 2026-10-01 | 2026-12-31 | Release of new FAA Part 1 rules for drones. | These rules are expected to open up beyond visual line of sight commercial drone operations, creating significant new market opportunities for Iridium's communication and PNT technologies in the drone sector. | Theme | 2026-04-23 | earnings_transcript | IRDM (ticker) |
| ONDS_7d48494d | first quarter of 2027, 6 months ahead of our prior target | 2027-01-01 | 2027-03-31 | Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) is expected to achieve EBITDA profitability in Q1 2027, six months ahead of its prior target, partly due to the Omnisys acquisition. | Achieving EBITDA profitability for the core OAS segment ahead of schedule is a significant milestone, indicating strong operational leverage and a clear path to overall company profitability, which is highly bullish for investor sentiment and valuation. | Ticker | 2026-05-14 | earnings_transcript | ONDS (ticker) |
| VSAT_71f21766 | initial global service plan for late next year | 2027-10-01 | 2027-12-31 | Commencement of initial global service for Telesat's Lightspeed LEO constellation. | The launch of global LEO services by a competitor will intensify competition in the broadband satellite services market, potentially affecting Viasat's market share and pricing power, especially in aviation and maritime. | Theme | 2026-05-28 | earnings_transcript | VSAT (ticker) |
NotesEarnings Summary
| Date | Type | Comment | Detail | Sentiment | Tickers | IS CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Theme Update | Recent earnings reinforce the Modern Warfare '26 theme, highlighting significant advancements in military connectivity and tactical networks. Viasat and Iridium are expanding multi-orbit satellite communications and assured PNT solutions. Ondas and Elbit demonstrate robust growth in AI-driven autonomous systems, counter-UAS, and high-power laser R&D. Comtech's pivot to high-margin digital modems further underscores the critical need for interconnected, secure military systems, validating the 'War from Home' thesis. | Earnings Summary | Positive | VSAT, CMTL, ONDS, IRDM, ESLT | False |
Constituents
- — Ondas Holdings Inc.
- MDA.TOT2— MDA Ltd.
- CMTLT3— Comtech Telecommunications Corp.
- ESLTT3— Elbit Systems Ltd.
- HO.PAT3— Thales S.A.
- IRDMT3— Iridium Communications Inc.
- LHXT3— L3Harris Technologies, Inc.
- MOBT3— Mobilicom Ltd
- VSATT3— Viasat, Inc.
- VVXT3— V2X, Inc.
- CHRT.LSET3· no notes yet
- DRST3· no notes yet
- ETL.PAT3· no notes yet
- GILTT3· no notes yet
- KOG.OLT3· no notes yet