Modern Warfare '26: ISR (view performance)

Expect continued high demand for AI/ML engineers (especially those with security clearances, focused on data analytics, autonomous systems, and sovereign AI), software developers for multi-domain command & control, and cybersecurity specialists. There's a significant surge in manufacturing and production engineering roles, particularly for advanced defense hardware (missile components, jet engines, satellite manufacturing, autonomous platforms, directed energy systems) as companies like AVEX, Kratos, L3Harris, and Elbit scale up production capacity. Demand for space systems engineers (satellite design, integration, launch operations) and electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) sensor specialists remains critical. Geographically, expect growth in established defense hubs (e.g., Huntsville for Leidos, Florida for AVEX, various US locations for L3Harris, Elbit, Kratos) and new manufacturing facilities. Confirming theme execution: Sustained increase in job postings for AI/ML, robotics, space systems, and advanced manufacturing roles, particularly those requiring security clearances. Evidence of companies expanding production facilities and hiring for these new capacities (e.g., Kratos's BladeWorks, L3Harris's new missile factories, AVEX's Tampa expansion). Growth in specialized software engineering roles for multi-domain operations and data fusion (e.g., Palantir's FDEs, DRS's RAFT integration). Warning of deterioration: Stagnation or decline in job postings for these critical technical and manufacturing roles. Reports of significant delays in facility expansions or production ramp-ups due to labor shortages. A shift towards generalist roles or a decline in demand for highly specialized defense tech skills could signal a slowdown in innovation or budget constraints.

The Modern Warfare '26: ISR theme is evolving with several key second-order trends. Firstly, the narrative of "AI Sovereignty" and Edge AI for Defense is intensifying. Companies like Palantir are emphasizing platforms that allow enterprises and governments to own and control their operational data, models, and security, preventing "AI slop" and ensuring trusted, auditable AI deployments at the tactical edge. This is complemented by acquisitions like DRS's RAFT, focusing on multi-domain AI data fusion. Secondly, there's a pronounced shift towards Vertical Integration and "Affordable Mass" Production in defense. Companies like Rocket Lab, Kratos, and L3Harris are scaling up in-house manufacturing for high-volume, cost-effective systems such as attritable drones, low-cost munitions, and satellite components, directly addressing the cost asymmetry of defense versus offense and the need for rapid replenishment. Thirdly, Arctic Defense and Geopolitical Hotspots are becoming more critical drivers. Accelerating investments in Arctic security (e.g., Greenland initiatives, European defense boosts) alongside persistent tensions in regions like the Red Sea, Ukraine, and the China/Taiwan strait are creating urgent, localized demand for enhanced ISR, maritime mobility, and integrated air defense capabilities. Finally, the role of Commercial Space as National Security Infrastructure is expanding rapidly. Commercial satellite constellations (e.g., Planet Labs, BlackSky, SpaceX Starlink/Starshield) are increasingly viewed as indispensable for government ISR, communication, and missile warning/tracking, leading to new "sovereign mission solutions" where nations leverage commercial capabilities for national security.