Modern Warfare '26: Core Shipbuilders (open on stockthemes)

1. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) — Military Expenditure Database

Matched (medium)cand_sipri_33bcafca · candidate

Metric/field Global Military Expenditure (USD Billions)

Cadence annual

Why it matters Rising global military expenditure directly signals increased defense budgets, driving naval procurement and modernization, which indicates a bullish outlook for shipbuilders.

Signal to watch Increasing year-over-year expenditure is bullish; declining trends are bearish.

Confidence: high

2. US Department of Defense (DoD) & Congressional Budget Office (CBO) — US Defense Budget Allocations

Matched (medium)cand_us_department_of_defense_dod_congres_3a6e79ab · candidate

Metric/field US Navy Shipbuilding and Conversion (SCN) Budget Allocation (USD Billions)

Cadence annual, quarterly

Why it matters Directly reflects the U.S. government's commitment to naval modernization and new construction, impacting revenue visibility for major U.S. shipbuilders like HII and GD.

Signal to watch Increases in SCN budget allocation are bullish; decreases or reallocations away from traditional shipbuilding are bearish.

Confidence: high

3. Eurostat — Government expenditure by function (COFOG)

Matched (medium)cand_eurostat_d4b1d101 · candidate

Metric/field Government expenditure on defence (COFOG 02) - EUR millions

Cadence annual

Why it matters European defense spending is a key driver for Fincantieri, with a 'generational surge' in spending fueling demand for naval vessels and technology.

Signal to watch Consistent growth in defense expenditure indicates strong demand for European naval modernization.

Confidence: high

4. Trading Economics — Australia Economic Indicators

Matched (medium)trading_economics · access=api · map_only

Metric/field Australia Weapons Sales

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Reflects Australia's defense procurement, directly impacting Austal Limited's order book and revenue, especially given its 'sovereign shipbuilder' status.

Signal to watch Increasing weapons sales indicate robust defense spending and potential for new contracts for Austal.

Confidence: high

5. Federal Reserve Bank of New York — Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI)

Not in registry

Metric/field Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Supply chain bottlenecks and industrial base constraints are significant risk factors for shipbuilders, impacting production schedules and costs.

Signal to watch Declining GSCPI is bullish (easing supply chain pressure); increasing GSCPI is bearish (worsening pressure).

Confidence: high

1. USASpending.gov — Federal Contract Awards

Matched (medium)cand_usaspending_gov_883b3088 · access=api · candidate

Metric/field Contract Awards by NAICS Code 336611 (Shipbuilding and Repairing)

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Provides real-time visibility into new federal contract awards for shipbuilding, directly signaling demand and future revenue for U.S. theme members like HII and GD.

Signal to watch Increasing volume and value of new contract awards is bullish.

Confidence: high

2. Google Trends — Search Interest Data

Not in registry

Metric/field Search Interest Index for 'Unmanned Underwater Vehicle' (UUV) AND 'Arctic Defense' (Worldwide)

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Reflects public and industry interest in key strategic areas of modern naval warfare and defense, indicating evolving priorities and potential future demand for specialized vessels and systems.

Signal to watch Sustained or increasing search interest is bullish for the theme's focus on UUVs and Arctic capabilities.

Confidence: medium

3. r / CredibleDefense (Reddit) — Subreddit Post Volume and Sentiment

Matched (medium)cand_reddit_97b8dd0c · candidate

Metric/field Number of posts and sentiment related to 'naval modernization', 'submarine production', 'UUVs'

Cadence daily/weekly

Why it matters Discussions on new defense technologies, geopolitical implications, and operational reports provide early signals on evolving threats and procurement priorities.

Signal to watch Increased positive discussion volume around key theme technologies and programs is bullish.

Confidence: medium

4. Company Careers Pages (e.g., HII, GD, FCT.MI, ASB.AU) — Job Postings

Matched (medium)engine_advertising_brand_tracking · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Number of job postings for 'Shipbuilder', 'Naval Architect', 'Systems Engineer', 'Welders' (across key constituents)

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Hiring trends reflect industrial base expansion and the ability to meet production demands, which are critical for converting backlogs into revenue.

Signal to watch Consistent growth in relevant job postings, especially for specialized roles, is bullish.

Confidence: medium

5. Defense News / Naval Technology — Industry News and Program Updates

Not in registry

Metric/field Announcements of new naval programs, contract awards, and technological advancements

Cadence daily

Why it matters These industry-specific publications provide comprehensive coverage of global defense policy, programs, and industry, including major shipbuilding contracts and technological developments.

Signal to watch Frequent positive news on new contracts, program milestones, and technological integration is bullish.

Confidence: high

1. Janes by S&P Global Market Intelligence — Naval Vessels Forecast & Contract Tracking

Matched (medium)s_p_global_trade_supply_chain_data · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Naval Vessels Forecasted Production Volume and Value (by vessel type: Submarines, Frigates, UUVs)

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Provides detailed, proprietary forecasts for naval vessel production and tracks new contract awards, offering critical insights into future revenue streams and market shifts for shipbuilders.

Signal to watch Upward revisions in forecasted production volume/value and increasing contract awards are bullish.

Confidence: high

2. Thinknum — Job Postings Data

Matched (medium)cand_thinknum_5c4f6534 · access=file · candidate

Metric/field HII job postings growth for 'Shipbuilder' roles (Newport News, Pascagoula)

Cadence weekly/monthly

Why it matters Monitors HII's ability to attract and retain the necessary workforce, which is crucial for improving shipbuilding throughput and meeting delivery schedules.

Signal to watch Sustained growth in job postings and declining time-to-fill indicates strong hiring momentum and operational capacity.

Confidence: high

3. Planet Labs / Maxar Technologies — High-Resolution Satellite Imagery

Matchedplanet_high_resolution_satellite_imagery · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Construction progress at Fincantieri's naval shipyards (e.g., new facility construction, expansion milestones)

Cadence weekly/monthly

Why it matters Physical expansion of naval shipyard capacity is crucial for Fincantieri to meet increased demand from European defense spending and convert its robust pipeline into deliveries.

Signal to watch Visible progress in construction and expansion activities is bullish.

Confidence: high

4. WingX Advance — Business Jet Flight Activity and Order Trends

Matchednondefense_capex_new_orders · access=api

Metric/field Global large-cabin business jet flight hours and new order trends (proxy for Gulfstream demand)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters General Dynamics' Aerospace segment (Gulfstream) is a significant contributor to its revenue and profitability. Strong demand for large-cabin jets indicates a healthy market for this high-margin business.

Signal to watch Increasing flight hours and new orders for large-cabin jets are bullish for GD's Aerospace segment.

Confidence: high

5. Revelio Labs — Jobs / Workforce Data

Matched (medium)revelio_labs_employee_workforce_profiles · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Employee headcount and attrition rates for key shipbuilder roles (e.g., welders, engineers) at HII and GD

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Labor shortages and retention are key industrial base constraints. Monitoring employee trends provides insight into operational stability and capacity.

Signal to watch Stable or increasing headcount and declining attrition rates for critical roles are bullish.

Confidence: high

1. Government spending increase in 2026 (Before 2027)

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Matched (medium)kalshi_senate_control_d · access=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovtspend

Why it matters The 'Modern Warfare '26: Core Shipbuilders' theme is directly driven by sustained global defense spending and naval modernization. An increase in overall government spending in 2026, particularly if a significant portion is allocated to defense, would signal a robust funding environment for naval procurement, new shipbuilding programs, and the integration of advanced technologies, directly benefiting theme constituents like Huntington Ingalls Industries and General Dynamics.

Series key pm_us_govt_spending_2026

2. Will the House pass additional defense funding?

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Matched (medium)kalshi_house_control_d · access=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdefapprop

Why it matters The theme's thesis is heavily reliant on defense budget allocations and program funding. The passage of additional defense funding by the House would directly impact the U.S. Navy's shipbuilding and conversion budget, potentially providing incremental funding for major programs like submarines and aircraft carriers, as well as emerging naval assets such as unmanned systems and anti-UUV capabilities. This would enhance revenue visibility and growth for core shipbuilders.

Series key pm_house_additional_defense_funding

3. How much will the US acquire Greenland for? (During Trump's term)

Kalshi · Confidence: medium

Matched (medium)pm_kalshi_ddr5_ye2027_above_95 · access=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgreenlandprice

Why it matters The 'Modern Warfare '26: Core Shipbuilders' theme explicitly highlights the strategic importance of the Arctic and mentions 'Greenland investment surges with CRML's Tanbreez acquisition and ETM's Nasdaq pivot.' Any U.S. acquisition or significant investment in Greenland would underscore the increasing geopolitical focus on Arctic defense and resource control, potentially leading to increased demand for icebreakers and specialized naval vessels for Arctic operations, benefiting shipbuilders involved in these programs.

Series key pm_greenland_acquisition_price