MedTech Long '25: Cancer Diagnostics, Platforms & Care (open on stockthemes)

1. FRED — National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA)

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Reflects the overall size and growth of the healthcare market, directly impacting the addressable market for diagnostic services within the theme.

Signal to watch Increasing expenditures suggest a growing market for diagnostic services.

Confidence: low

2. FRED — Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field DPCERA3M086SBEA

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks consumer spending on healthcare services, indicating demand and affordability for diagnostic tests, especially those with out-of-pocket components.

Signal to watch Sustained growth indicates robust consumer demand for healthcare services, including diagnostics.

Confidence: high

3. BLS — Employment Cost Index (ECI)

Matched (medium)lab_headcount · access=api

Metric/field CIU2020000000000I

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Measures changes in labor costs for healthcare providers, impacting the operational expenses and profitability of diagnostic companies.

Signal to watch Stable or declining growth in ECI suggests favorable cost management for healthcare companies.

Confidence: high

4. BLS — Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Matched (medium)fred · access=api · map_only

Metric/field CUUR0000SAM2

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Indicates inflationary pressures on medical care services, which can affect the cost of providing diagnostic tests and influence reimbursement negotiations.

Signal to watch Moderate CPI growth for medical services suggests a stable pricing environment.

Confidence: high

5. FRED — National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA)

Matchedfred · access=api · map_only

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks government spending on healthcare, which is critical for companies relying on Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement for their diagnostic tests.

Signal to watch Increasing government health expenditures indicate potential for expanded coverage and reimbursement for diagnostic services.

Confidence: low

1. Google Trends — Search Interest

Matched (medium)cand_baidu_index_2e41e3c3 · candidate

Metric/field 'multi-cancer early detection' relative search volume index

Cadence daily

Why it matters Directly tracks public and professional interest in the overarching theme, indicating market awareness and potential adoption of MCED tests.

Signal to watch Sustained or increasing search volume indicates growing market awareness and potential demand.

Confidence: high

2. ClinicalTrials.gov — Study Results Database

Matched (medium)cand_clinicaltrials_gov_36d0f449 · candidate

Metric/field Number of new studies registered with 'minimal residual disease' OR 'circulating tumor DNA' AND 'oncology'

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Indicates the expanding research and clinical application of MRD and ctDNA testing, which directly relates to the core business of Personalis and Guardant Health.

Signal to watch Increasing number of new studies suggests growing scientific and clinical interest, potentially leading to future adoption and reimbursement.

Confidence: high

3. FDA.gov — PMA Approvals Database

Matched (medium)cand_fda_gov_1e47d75c · candidate

Metric/field Number of new PMA approvals for 'cancer diagnostic' OR 'liquid biopsy'

Cadence event_driven

Why it matters FDA approvals are critical regulatory milestones for diagnostic tests, directly impacting market access and commercialization for companies like GRAIL and Guardant Health.

Signal to watch An increase in PMA approvals signals a favorable regulatory environment and potential for new product launches.

Confidence: high

4. CMS.gov — National Coverage Determinations (NCDs)

Matched (medium)cand_cms_gov_9eb702de · candidate

Metric/field New NCDs or NCD updates for 'multi-cancer early detection' OR 'liquid biopsy' OR 'minimal residual disease'

Cadence event_driven

Why it matters Medicare coverage decisions are crucial for broad market access and reimbursement for diagnostic tests, especially for MCED and MRD.

Signal to watch Positive NCDs or expanded coverage for relevant diagnostic categories are bullish for the theme.

Confidence: high

5. Reddit — r/oncology subreddit

Matchedquid_social_media_sentiment · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Post volume and sentiment related to 'liquid biopsy', 'MCED', 'MRD', 'Galleri', 'Guardant', 'NeXT Personal'

Cadence daily

Why it matters Provides insights into physician sentiment, clinical utility discussions, and reactions to new studies or competitive dynamics within the oncology community.

Signal to watch Increasing positive sentiment and discussion volume around new diagnostic technologies suggests growing professional interest and potential adoption.

Confidence: medium

1. Revelio Labs — Job Postings Data

Matched (medium)cand_revelio_labs_6bae06d6 · access=file · candidate

Metric/field 'GRAIL Inc. sales job postings count' (monthly)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Indicates GRAIL's investment in commercial expansion and market penetration for its Galleri test, signaling growth strategy.

Signal to watch Sustained or increasing sales job postings suggest aggressive commercialization efforts and confidence in market expansion.

Confidence: high

2. Earnest Analytics — Transaction Data

Matched (medium)earnest_analytics_credit_debit_card_consumer_spend · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Guardant Health 'Shield' test volume (monthly)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Provides granular, independent data on actual test utilization and market share for Guardant Health's Shield test, crucial for assessing adoption post-coverage wins.

Signal to watch Accelerating Shield test volume growth indicates successful commercialization and payer adoption.

Confidence: high

3. IQVIA / Symphony Health — Medical Claims Data

Matchediqvia_medical_claims · access=file · map_only

Metric/field CPT code utilization for molecular diagnostic tests related to MRD (e.g., specific codes for liquid biopsy, ctDNA, tumor-informed MRD)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Provides granular, independent data on actual test utilization, market share, and reimbursement trends for MRD tests, directly impacting Personalis.

Signal to watch Increasing CPT code utilization for MRD tests suggests growing clinical adoption and reimbursement success.

Confidence: high

4. Definitive Healthcare — Commercial Payer Coverage Database

Matched (medium)cand_definitive_healthcare_c603ee54 · candidate

Metric/field Number of covered lives for 'Galleri test' OR 'Guardant Shield' OR 'NeXT Personal'

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Tracks the expansion of commercial insurance coverage for key diagnostic tests, directly impacting addressable market and revenue potential.

Signal to watch Increasing covered lives for these tests indicates broader market access and potential for revenue growth.

Confidence: high

5. Sensor Tower — Web Insights

Not in registry

Metric/field Website traffic to 'grail.com' OR 'guardanthealth.com' OR 'personalis.com'

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Provides a proxy for public and professional interest, marketing effectiveness, and engagement with the companies' products and information.

Signal to watch Sustained or increasing website traffic suggests growing interest and engagement with the companies and their diagnostic offerings.

Confidence: high