Industry-Specific Software '24: Government & Public Safety Software (open on stockthemes)

1. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA Table 3.3)

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Metric/field W070RC1Q027SBEA (State and local government current tax receipts)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Measures state and municipal revenue collections, serving as the foundational funding driver for state/local general funds, court administration, and public safety technology budgets.

Signal to watch Positive YoY growth signals expanding municipal software procurement capacity and accelerating cloud migrations; contractions signal prospective budget tightening and elongated sales cycles.

Confidence: high

2. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — NIPA Table 3.9.5 (Government Gross Investment)

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Metric/field Y056RC1Q027SBEA (Government Gross Investment: Intellectual Property Products: Software)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks aggregate public-sector capital investment dedicated specifically to software purchases and development across federal, state, and local governments.

Signal to watch Accelerating investment confirms structural shift toward modern digital infrastructure and enterprise SaaS upgrades rather than deferral of tech refreshes.

Confidence: high

3. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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Metric/field CES9093000001 (All Employees: Local Government, Excluding Educational Services)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Monitors local municipal and public safety staffing levels; chronic labor shortages and attrition force municipalities to procure labor-augmenting software and AI workflow automation tools.

Signal to watch Subdued or negative payroll growth relative to citizen service demand intensifies municipal reliance on efficiency software (e.g., Tyler Resident Assistant, Axon Draft One, CAD/RMS).

Confidence: high

4. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / U.S. Census Bureau — Quarterly Summary of State & Local Tax Revenue (QTAX)

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Metric/field QTAXT01QTAXCAT1USYES (National Totals of State and Local Tax Revenue: T01 Property Taxes for the United States, Seasonally Adjusted)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Property tax revenues represent the primary dedicated funding foundation for county and municipal police departments, emergency services, and local justice operations.

Signal to watch Steady compounding growth provides predictable municipal balance-sheet support for multi-year recurring SaaS commitments and mission-critical dispatch infrastructure.

Confidence: high

5. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — NIPA Table 3.11.5 (National Defense Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment)

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Metric/field B086RC1Q027SBEA (National Defense Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Underpins federal defense and national security spending volumes that directly drive enterprise AI adoption, intelligence integration, and public-safety command software (e.g., Palantir Maven, tactical communications).

Signal to watch Expanding defense outlays reflect robust federal appropriations for operational AI platforms and digital intelligence integration.

Confidence: high

1. U.S. Department of the Treasury (USASpending.gov) — Federal Prime Award Spending Data API

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field award_amount filtered by recipient_uei (Palantir UEI: H6BNEK19LKB4; Motorola Solutions UEI: F1K6X1PFLNM9) and PSC Code 7A21 (IT and Telecom - Business Application Software)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Provides official, transaction-level visibility into federal prime software contract awards, task orders, and de-obligations across defense and homeland security agencies.

Signal to watch Expanding net new obligated contract values and upward ceiling revisions indicate expanding federal program integration and durable forward revenue.

Confidence: high

2. U.S. General Services Administration (SAM.gov) — Contract Opportunities API

Not in registry

Metric/field solicitationNumber and active notice counts under NAICS 513210 (Software Publishers) with keywords: 'CAD', 'RMS', 'Body-Worn Camera', 'Gunshot Detection', 'Digital Forensics'

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Captures top-of-funnel solicitation volumes, pre-award RFP publications, and agency requirements before public safety contracts are awarded.

Signal to watch Rising active RFP notice volumes signal healthy municipal tender pipelines; delays or cancellations indicate procurement bottlenecks.

Confidence: high

3. U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) / Office of Justice Programs (OJP) — Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) Grant Awards Database

Not in registry

Metric/field award_amount and project_title under Assistance Listings CFDA 16.738 (Edward Byrne Memorial Justice Assistance Grant) and CFDA 16.835 (Body-Worn Camera Policy and Implementation Program)

Cadence event_driven

Why it matters Federal justice grants directly subsidize local police agency purchases of digital evidence systems, video redaction, mobile forensics, and acoustic gunshot sensors.

Signal to watch Expanding annual grant disbursements and larger award sizes bolster municipal agency purchasing capacity for public-safety tech ecosystems.

Confidence: high

4. Socrata / Tyler Data & Insights Open Data Network — Municipal Vendor Checkbook & Expenditure Data

Not in registry

Metric/field vendor_name ('Tyler Technologies', 'Axon Enterprise', 'SoundThinking', 'Motorola Solutions') and check_amount / check_date

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Directly tracks actual municipal warrant payments and invoice settlements issued to constituent vendors across open-data cities and counties.

Signal to watch Sequential compounding in payment transaction amounts indicates smooth SaaS migration, module upselling, and absence of municipal budget withholding.

Confidence: medium

5. General Services Administration (GSA) / FedRAMP Program Management Office — FedRAMP Marketplace API

Not in registry

Metric/field authorization_status ('FedRAMP Authorized') and agency_authorizations count for vendor cloud solutions (e.g., Palantir Federal Cloud Service, Axon Evidence Cloud, Tyler Enterprise Solutions)

Cadence event_driven

Why it matters FedRAMP and StateRAMP accreditations represent mandatory security thresholds required for government agencies to store sensitive public records and criminal justice information.

Signal to watch Milestone status elevations and growing reuse counts across additional civilian and defense agencies signal market expansion and reduced sales cycle friction.

Confidence: high

1. Deltek — GovWin IQ SLED (State, Local, and Education) Opportunity Intelligence

Not in registry

Metric/field opportunity_value and status_stage ('Pre-RFP', 'RFP Released', 'Awarded') across CAD, RMS, 911 dispatch, and municipal ERP software categories

Cadence daily

Why it matters Standard institutional platform tracking state, local, and municipal technology procurement opportunities, budget timelines, and competitive vendor bid matrices.

Signal to watch Expansion in total addressable RFP pipeline value and high SaaS vendor win rates against on-premise incumbents confirm accelerating public-sector cloud transformation.

Confidence: high

2. Bloomberg L.P. — Bloomberg Government (BGOV) Contracts & Budget Intelligence

Not in registry

Metric/field obligated_amount, potential_value, and expiring_contract_value across defense, intelligence, and justice agency software task orders

Cadence daily

Why it matters Delivers granular tracking of federal contract vehicles, delivery order burn rates, and recompete timetables for defense-oriented constituent software.

Signal to watch Accelerating delivery order obligations and successful recompete retention confirm high customer retention and program-of-record stability.

Confidence: high

3. Revelio Labs — Workforce Intelligence & Tech Talent Analytics

Matched (medium)engine_advertising_brand_tracking · access=file · map_only

Metric/field active_job_postings and net_headcount_change classified under roles: 'Forward Deployed Engineer', 'SLED Account Executive', 'Implementation Specialist' for theme tickers

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Quantifies implementation capacity and sales force expansion; government and defense software growth is heavily dependent on deployment engineers to fulfill record backlog.

Signal to watch Consistent net positive additions in technical field engineering talent indicate operational readiness to convert customer backlogs into recognized software revenue.

Confidence: high

4. Gartner — Government IT Spending Forecast & Public Safety Research

Matchedgartner_it_spending_market_forecasts · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Software Spend Share of Government IT Budget (%) and Public Safety Cloud Workload Penetration Rate (%)

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Proprietary CIO surveys measure long-term architectural shifts, showing how quickly police, justice, and municipal agencies are transitioning from legacy on-premises servers to multi-tenant cloud.

Signal to watch Increasing cloud workload penetration benchmarks durable secular software transition tailwinds regardless of macro cycles.

Confidence: medium

5. Similarweb — Digital Research Intelligence (Enterprise & Government Portal Analytics)

Matchedsimilarweb_digital_marketing_referral_intelligence · access=file · map_only

Metric/field desktop_and_mobile_visits, monthly_active_users, and pageviews for key platform interfaces (e.g., evidence.com, citizen e-filing/utility payment portals)

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Serves as an objective proxy for agency software engagement, digital evidence uploads, and citizen transaction processing volumes underpinning transaction-fee arrangements.

Signal to watch Sustained growth in user sessions and portal visits signals deepening daily operational usage, low customer churn risk, and growing transaction revenue volume.

Confidence: medium

1. Will any state ban or pause police use of Flock cameras before 2027?

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxflockban

Why it matters State-level bans or pauses on automated license plate reader (ALPR) and camera networks create regulatory headwinds and constrain municipal software procurement for public safety tech vendors such as Rekor Systems (REKR), Axon Enterprise (AXON), and Motorola Solutions (MSI).

Series key pm_kalshi_state_ban_police_alpr_flock

2. When will the NHS decide to end its Palantir contract?

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnhspltrbreak-27

Why it matters Palantir's (PLTR) £330M Federated Data Platform contract with England's NHS is the primary benchmark for expanding sovereign software into civilian government agencies internationally; early termination would undermine international government software revenue and pipeline conversion.

Series key pm_kalshi_nhs_cancel_palantir_contract

3. Will the House pass additional defense funding?

Kalshi · Confidence: medium

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdefapprop

Why it matters Supplemental defense appropriations provide unbudgeted program funding for rapid software modernization and defense AI deployments (such as Palantir's Project Maven and tactical edge command systems), directly driving U.S. government contract total contract value (TCV).

Series key pm_kalshi_house_pass_supplemental_defense_funding