Home / Themes / GLP-1 Long '24: Improved Looks

GLP-1 Long '24: Improved Looks Watchlist (view performance)

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Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).

Bull / Bear Details

The GLP-1 'Improved Looks' theme remains bullish, driven by increasing GLP-1 drug adoption leading to significant weight loss. This fuels demand for cosmetic en

Thesis

The GLP-1 'Improved Looks' theme remains bullish, driven by increasing GLP-1 drug adoption leading to significant weight loss. This fuels demand for cosmetic enhancements, updated fashion, and boosts confidence for social engagement, particularly in online dating, creating a broad tailwind for appearance-focused consumer sectors.

Bull case

  • Increased usage of GLP-1 drugs is driving demand for cosmetic surgeries, skin tightening, and related aesthetic products as individuals seek to address changes in appearance post-weight loss, benefiting the medical aesthetics sector.

  • Online dating platforms are experiencing higher user engagement and monetization as individuals, feeling more confident due to improved appearances from GLP-1 usage, actively seek new social connections and relationships.

  • Fashion retailers are seeing increased sales as consumers update their wardrobes to fit changing body sizes and embrace new styles post-weight loss, leading to a structural uplift in demand for apparel.

Bear case

  • The high cost of GLP-1 drugs and varying insurance coverage may limit widespread adoption, potentially dampening the expected surge in demand for appearance-related products and services.

  • Economic downturns, persistent inflation, or rising interest rates could reduce discretionary spending on non-essential consumer sectors like fashion, cosmetic procedures, and premium dating services, impacting theme growth.

  • Potential long-term side effects, health risks, or negative public perception associated with prolonged GLP-1 usage could lead to a decline in drug popularity, subsequently impacting related industries that benefit from the 'improved looks' trend.

Overview

Hiring Trend Watchpoints

High-performing operators in this theme are expected to increase hiring in specialized roles focused on customer acquisition, retention, and technological innovation. Specifically, watch for an uptick in AI/ML engineers (for dating apps like Bumble and CRM systems), data scientists (for marketing efficiency and customer analytics at companies like Torrid), targeted digital marketing specialists, and aesthetic sales representatives (for medical device/pharma companies like Galderma and AirSculpt). Roles supporting new product launches and personalized customer experiences will be key. Confirmation of theme execution would be indicated by sustained hiring in these growth-oriented, specialized tech and sales roles. Deterioration would be signaled by hiring freezes, significant layoffs in customer acquisition or tech/AI departments, or a shift towards generalist roles rather than specialized growth drivers.

Forum Watchlist

  • Reddit — r/OzempicHigh

    User experiences with weight loss, body changes, side effects, and impact on appearance/confidence.

  • Reddit — r/PlasticSurgeryMedium

    Discussions around 'Ozempic face,' skin tightening, and other aesthetic procedures post-GLP-1 weight loss.

  • Reddit — r/DatingAppsHigh

    User sentiment and engagement with dating platforms, especially related to confidence, new features (like Bumble's AI), and post-weight loss dating experiences.

  • Reddit — r/PlusSizeFashionMedium

    Discussions on changing body sizes, new wardrobe needs, and brand preferences (e.g., Torrid) as GLP-1 users transition.

  • Industry Forum — MedSpa Owners ForumMedium

    Clinic-level observations on demand for GLP-1-adjacent aesthetic treatments, pricing, and patient profiles.

Second Order Trends

The most prominent second-order trend is the increasing demand for 'Ozempic face' treatments, specifically facial fillers and biostimulators to address volume loss in the face post-GLP-1 weight loss, as highlighted by Galderma. This is evolving into a distinct sub-segment within aesthetics. Concurrently, there's a growing focus on body contouring and skin tightening procedures (e.g., AirSculpt's pilots) to address excess skin or localized fat after significant GLP-1-induced weight loss. In the dating sector, AI-driven personalization, exemplified by Bumble's 'b' AI assistant and Bumble 2.0, is emerging as a critical differentiator, leveraging newfound user confidence to enhance matching and engagement. Lastly, the changing consumer body shapes due to GLP-1s are likely to drive demand for more inclusive and adaptable fashion lines, benefiting retailers like Torrid that prioritize customer file growth and diverse sizing.

Search Keywords Brand Product

  • Ozempic
  • Wegovy
  • Mounjaro
  • Zepbound
  • Skyrizi
  • Rinvoq
  • Relfydess
  • Sculptra
  • Nemluvio
  • Juvederm
  • Botox Cosmetic
  • AirSculpt Smooth

Search Keywords Policy Regulatory

  • GLP-1 insurance coverage
  • Medicare drug negotiation
  • aesthetic procedure financing

Search Keywords Event Phrases

  • Ozempic face treatment
  • GLP-1 skin tightening
  • post-weight loss fashion trends
  • dating app confidence boost
  • Torrid Casting Call

Google Trend Product Category Intent

• GLP-1 weight loss results • skin tightening after weight loss • facial fillers for volume loss • new wardrobe after weight loss • dating app for confidence

Google Trend Consumer Intent

• confidence after weight loss • dating after significant weight loss • fashion for new body shape • aesthetic treatments GLP-1 users • body image post-GLP-1

Google Trend Macro Policy Terms

• GLP-1 drug cost • GLP-1 insurance access

Top datasets to track

1. IQVIA GLP-1 Prescription Data Type: Healthcare Data · Provider: IQVIA Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: Directly tracks the adoption rate and growth of GLP-1 drugs, which is the foundational driver of the 'Improved Looks' theme. Suggested query: GLP-1 prescription volume growth by drug and indication (weight loss) Confidence: High

2. SimilarWeb Dating App Engagement Metrics Type: Alternative Data · Provider: SimilarWeb Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: Measures user activity, downloads, and engagement on major dating platforms, signaling confidence and social interaction changes post-GLP-1 weight loss. Suggested query: Bumble app active users, session duration, and new downloads; overall dating app market share changes. Confidence: High

3. Credit Card Data - Apparel & Fashion Spending Type: Economic Data · Provider: Various (e.g., Facteus, Earnest Research) Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: Tracks changes in consumer spending on fashion retail, indicating if GLP-1 users are updating their wardrobes due to body changes. Suggested query: Growth in discretionary spending on apparel, specifically for brands catering to diverse sizing or fashion updates. Confidence: High

4. M Science Aesthetic Treatment Volume Tracker Type: Alternative Data · Provider: M Science Cadence: Quarterly Why it matters: Provides granular data on aesthetic procedure volumes, including facial fillers, skin tightening, and body contouring, directly signaling demand for GLP-1-adjacent treatments. Suggested query: Volume trends for facial fillers, biostimulators, and non-invasive body contouring procedures; specific mentions of GLP-1 patient segments. Confidence: High

5. SimilarWeb Torrid Website Traffic & Conversion Type: Alternative Data · Provider: SimilarWeb Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: Monitors Torrid's online customer acquisition, engagement, and conversion rates, crucial for tracking their 'customer file growth' strategy in a changing consumer landscape. Suggested query: Torrid.com unique visitors, bounce rate, conversion rate, and traffic sources. Confidence: Medium

Key Metrics3 rows
MetricCadenceWhat It SignalsUpdate Source
GLP-1 Prescription RatesMonthlyIndicates the adoption rate of GLP-1 drugsGoogle_Sheets
User Engagement on Dating PlatformsMonthlyMeasures activity and engagement on dating sitesGoogle_Sheets
Consumer Spending on FashionMonthlyTracks changes in fashion retail salesGoogle_Sheets
Upcoming Catalysts33 rows
CatalystEstimated TimingEstimated Date StartEstimated Date EndWhy It MattersTicker Or Theme SpecificSource TypesContributing TickersMention CountBase ScoreSource WeightSpecificity WeightMacro BridgeMacro Bridge MultiplierTheme ScoreDate AggregatedManual OverrideBridge Mention CountTheme Base ScoreTheme Importance ScoreCatalyst SourceCatalyst IDTranscript DateSource Type
Continued growth in GLP-1 prescription rates and expanding insurance coverage, particularly with the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program starting in July 2026.Monthly, with significant impact from Medicare coverage starting July 2026.2026-07-012026-07-31This is a fundamental, cross-cutting driver for the entire 'Improved Looks' theme. Increased GLP-1 usage, supported by broader access and affordability, directly translates to a larger pool of individuals experiencing weight loss, driving demand for cosmetic surgeries, fashion, and online dating services.Themetheme_composerCURV, BMBL, GALD.SW, AIRS, ABBV50.01281.181.05Economic1.251.98442026-06-13False10.9038139.9712Theme composer
Emergence of definitive studies or explicit company commentary from aesthetic providers (e.g., Galderma, AirSculpt) quantifying the 'GLP-1 aesthetics tailwind' and incremental spending by GLP-1 users on aesthetic treatments.Ongoing, with potential for new reports or commentary in H2 2026.2026-07-012026-12-31This would provide strong validation for a core bullish thesis point, directly impacting aesthetic companies by confirming a new, structural demand driver for fillers, biostimulators, skin tightening, and body contouring procedures among GLP-1 users.Themetheme_composerGALD.SW, AIRS, ABBV30.01171.180.921.01.2722026-06-13False10.503754.6764Theme composer
AirSculpt's (AIRS) expansion or update on its skin-tightening pilot program, which is specifically tied to GLP-1 tailwinds and aims to expand the company's total addressable market.Expected with Q2 2026 earnings results (likely July/August 2026) or during investor conferences.2026-07-152026-08-31A successful expansion would demonstrate the ability of aesthetic service providers to innovate and directly capitalize on the specific needs of GLP-1 users, potentially opening a new, high-margin service line and refreshing the brand narrative.Themetheme_composerAIRS10.01.181.0Conference/Council1.20.00122026-06-13False10.00010.0124Theme composer
Bumble's (BMBL) full launch of its AI-first cloud-native Bumble 2.0 platform and the public beta release of its 'b' AI assistant, designed to enhance user experience and matchmaking.Q2 2026 (by June 30, 2026) for Bumble 2.0, with the 'b' AI assistant public beta expected soon after, potentially rolling out in select markets in Q4 2026.2026-06-132026-12-31A successful launch could significantly boost user engagement and payer penetration on Bumble's platform by addressing 'swipe fatigue' and offering more personalized connections. This directly benefits the online dating segment of the 'Improved Looks' theme as users feel more confident post-GLP-1 weight loss.Tickertheme_composerBMBL10.01.180.921.00.00062026-06-13False10.00010.0066Theme composer
Torrid's (CURV) relaunch of its 'Casting Call' platform in July, followed by a Times Square activation in August, as part of its strategic initiatives to accelerate customer file growth.July - August 20262026-07-012026-08-31This significant marketing push aims to acquire new customers and reactivate lapsed ones, directly capitalizing on the demand for new wardrobes from individuals experiencing body changes, including those on GLP-1 drugs. Success would signal strong performance in the fashion retail segment.Tickertheme_composerCURV10.01.181.01.00.00042026-06-13False10.00.0042Theme composer
Readout of Phase 3 data for both RINVOQ and lutekizumab in hidradenitis suppurativa.Over the course of 20262026-04-262026-12-31Positive data could lead to new indications for RINVOQ and establish lutekizumab as a lead asset, significantly expanding AbbVie's immunology franchise.TickerABBV (ticker)ABBV_171a2b752026-02-04earnings_transcript
Data from the Crohn's disease platform study evaluating SKYRIZI in combination with ABBV 3A2 and lutekizumab.This year2026-04-262026-12-31This data could demonstrate superior efficacy for patients, strengthening SKYRIZI's position and AbbVie's overall IBD portfolio, especially for patients who have already received SKYRIZI.TickerABBV (ticker)ABBV_1bed7b862026-02-04earnings_transcript
Efficacy results from dose escalation studies for ABBV 619, an in vivo CD19 CAR T platform for autoimmune diseases.anticipate seeing efficacy results later this year2026-04-262026-12-31Positive results could signal a transformative new approach to autoimmune diseases, offering deep and durable remission and a significant long-term growth driver.TickerABBV (ticker)ABBV_dfdda14f2026-02-04earnings_transcript
Initiation of a Phase 3 study for tmAbA in an all-comers population in combination with bevacizumab for colorectal cancer.initiating a phase three study this year2026-04-262026-12-31This advances tmAbA into late-stage development for a multibillion-dollar opportunity in CRC, bolstering AbbVie's oncology pipeline.TickerABBV (ticker)ABBV_5d3fb65c2026-02-04earnings_transcript
US commercial approval decision for tevapadon in Parkinson's disease.an approval decision is anticipated in the third quarter for tevapadon in Parkinson's disease.2026-07-012026-09-30Approval would add a new, potentially multibillion-dollar asset to AbbVie's neuroscience portfolio, offering a new treatment option for Parkinson's disease.TickerABBV (ticker)ABBV_800b41012026-02-04earnings_transcript
Data readout from Phase 3 studies evaluating QLIPTA and UBRELVY for menstrual migraine prevention.data from both trials expected in the second half of this year.2026-07-012026-12-31Positive data could lead to label expansions for these leading migraine products, addressing a distinct and difficult-to-treat subtype of migraine and further driving sales.TickerABBV (ticker)ABBV_47f622ef2026-02-04earnings_transcript
Data from two additional cohorts of a Phase 2 study evaluating bradicilacin in major depressive disorder (MDD).by Q3 or so2026-07-012026-09-30This data will inform the development strategy and Phase 3 plans, with bradicilacin having the potential to be a groundbreaking new treatment in depression due to its strong efficacy and short-acting profile.TickerABBV (ticker)ABBV_ced911402026-02-04earnings_transcript
US regulatory approval decision for Trenebody, a rapid-onset short-acting toxin for aesthetics.an approval decision is expected this year.2026-04-262026-12-31Approval and subsequent launch could stimulate the aesthetics market by attracting new patients and ultimately accrue to Botox share, increasing overall revenue.TickerABBV (ticker)ABBV_cba492a12026-02-04earnings_transcript
Introduction of a new, stand-alone AI product within Bumble's portfolio.next year2026-01-012026-12-31This product is envisioned to be unique in the market, leveraging AI for 'precise search' in dating, potentially expanding Bumble's offerings beyond traditional discovery and opening new avenues for growth and monetization.TickerBMBL (ticker)BMBL_c0f0c9d92025-11-05earnings_transcript
Addition of group and community discovery features to the Bumble BFF app.In 20262026-01-012026-12-31This expansion aims to enhance the BFF experience, allowing users to more easily find friends and form communities offline, strengthening Bumble's position as a platform for connection and potentially driving growth in new social experiences.TickerBMBL (ticker)BMBL_6615c0a32025-11-05earnings_transcript
Introduction of new Bumble BFF functionalities, including group discovery and features to facilitate curated, real-world social settings, extending into group dating.a series of product updates planned as fast follows, including the introduction of functionality designed to bring members together in curated, real-world settings.2026-07-012026-12-31This initiative targets Gen Z's social preferences, aiming to deepen engagement within BFF and create new pathways into Bumble Date, potentially expanding the user base and increasing overall platform activity. Successful adoption is bullish.TickerBMBL (ticker)BMBL_46d0cf302026-03-11earnings_transcript
Moderation of year-over-year revenue declines and sequential stabilization/improvement in key operating metrics like active users and payers.As we move through 2026, we expect our revenue headwinds to moderate as the impacts of recent trends in our operating metrics flow through the financials.2026-04-012026-12-31This is a critical indicator of the success of Bumble's quality reset and product innovation strategy, signaling a potential return to growth and a positive shift in investor sentiment. Achievement is bullish, continued declines are bearish.TickerBMBL (ticker)BMBL_50fb7f112026-03-11earnings_transcript
Continued increase in adoption and financial benefits from direct payment alternatives to in-app purchases in the U.S.benefits to increase through 20262026-03-132026-12-31This strategy directly improves gross margins and long-term profitability by reducing platform fees. Greater adoption and sustained benefits are bullish for financial performance.TickerBMBL (ticker)BMBL_90a26eaf2026-03-11earnings_transcript
Successful refinancing of $588 million in debt obligations maturing in January 2027.currently in discussions to refinance our existing debt obligations due January 20272026-03-132027-01-31Favorable refinancing terms would strengthen the balance sheet and provide financial flexibility for strategic investments. Unfavorable terms or delays could negatively impact liquidity and investor confidence.TickerBMBL (ticker)BMBL_d9a3779f2026-03-11earnings_transcript
Execution of targeted marketing strategies to accelerate customer file growth, focusing on reactivating 7 million lapsed customers, improving segmentation, personalization, and refining the loyalty program.for 20262026-01-012026-12-31This is the company's top priority, aiming to drive new customer acquisition, reactivate lapsed customers, and increase purchase frequency, which is crucial for sales growth and long-term customer lifetime value.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_290cb2422026-03-19earnings_transcript
Achieving projected 60% growth in sub-brand sales to approximately $110 million in 2026 and testing new scaling approaches like pop-up experiences and expanded in-store assortments.in 20262026-01-012026-12-31Sub-brands are margin-accretive and serve as customer acquisition engines, attracting new shoppers and driving higher spend, which could positively impact overall sales and profitability.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_16278e9e2026-03-19earnings_transcript
Launch of two new bras within the Curve intimate apparel brand.in the back half of the year2026-07-012026-12-31Bras are a key product category that drives strong customer acquisition, reactivation, and long-term loyalty, potentially boosting sales and customer engagement in the intimate apparel segment.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_ae4fe6f92026-03-19earnings_transcript
Full reintroduction and scaling of the footwear business, including the launch of the boot business in Q3, shifting from a first-half headwind to a second-half positive impact.positive impact in the second half of the year2026-06-012026-12-31This is expected to recapture lost direct revenue and attachment-driven sales, driving stronger attachment rates, improved profitability, and a positive comparable sales impact in the second half of 2026.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_94d63ed72026-03-19earnings_transcript
Expansion of the opening price point (OPP) strategy to represent closer to 40% of the total assortment.in 20262026-01-012026-12-31This strategy is driving conversion and units per transaction, serving as a critical component for customer file growth (reactivation, acquisition, frequency), and is expected to be highly accretive due to cost-engineering and sourcing strength.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_734fc95d2026-03-19earnings_transcript
Rollout and expansion of new fleece programs and knit dressing capsule collections.in the back half of the year2026-07-012026-12-31These new product offerings are expected to be advantageous and contribute to sales growth, particularly in the back half of the year, by expanding the product assortment.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_9cd7ebbc2026-03-19earnings_transcript
Achievement of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of up to 140-150 basis points in fiscal 2026.For the full year2026-01-012026-12-31This indicates improved profitability driven by SG&A leverage from the rationalized store footprint and optimized cost structure, which is a key financial goal for the company and could positively impact valuation and investor sentiment.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_576e78ea2026-03-19earnings_transcript
The footwear program, which was a headwind in the first half due to restructuring, is expected to resolve and return to full strength.second half of the year2026-07-012026-12-31This is anticipated to become a tailwind for comparable sales in the second half, providing a sizable benefit and historically enhancing attachment rates and overall customer spend. A successful return is bullish for sales and customer engagement, while delays or underperformance would be bearish.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_36938b6a2026-06-04earnings_transcript
Torrid aims to grow sub-brand sales by approximately 60% for the full year, reaching roughly $110 million and expanding to 12% of total net sales.for the full year2026-01-012026-12-31Sub-brands are margin-accretive and act as customer acquisition engines. Achieving this growth would positively impact net sales and profitability, while falling short would be bearish.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_28d681442026-06-04earnings_transcript
Successful execution of targeted marketing strategies to acquire new customers, reactivate lapsed ones, and deepen loyalty and purchase frequency of existing customers.in 20262026-01-012026-12-31This is the company's primary focus for 2026, expected to drive future sales and long-term value creation. Growth in the customer file is bullish, while stagnation or decline would be bearish.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_b24ee74c2026-06-04earnings_transcript
The relaunch of an expanded, year-round Casting Call platform, including a Times Square activation, mall events, and in-store parties, culminating in a winner announcement in November.relaunching an expanded reconceived casting call in July2026-07-012026-11-30Casting Call is a key platform designed to drive customer acquisition, reactivation, and retention, and has historically increased brand awareness. Successful execution is bullish for customer file growth and brand engagement.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_94f36efe2026-06-04earnings_transcript
Recovery of additional tariff refunds from the first phase ($9-$11 million) and a forthcoming second phase ($1.5-$2.5 million).additional recoveries expected as the claims process progresses2026-06-012026-12-31These refunds are not included in current guidance and represent a potential upside of $10.5 million to $13.5 million, which would positively impact profitability.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_f56e7b722026-06-04earnings_transcript
The actual tariff rate applied to goods in the second half of fiscal 2026. Guidance assumes a step-up to 15% from 10%.for the second half2026-07-012026-12-31If tariffs remain at 10% for the full year, it would offset potential freight-related headwinds, which would be bullish for margins. An escalation beyond 15% or worse-than-expected freight headwinds would be bearish.TickerCURV (ticker)CURV_f5e82e962026-06-04earnings_transcript
US regulatory approval decision for RINVOQ in nonsegmental vitiligo.anticipated in the fourth quarter2026-10-012026-12-31Approval would expand RINVOQ's market to a new systemic indication, potentially adding to its multi-billion dollar sales trajectory.TickerABBV (ticker)ABBV_c5da14692026-02-04earnings_transcript
NotesTable

Earnings Summary

DateTypeCommentDetailSentimentTickers
2026-06-13Theme UpdateThe GLP-1 Long '24: Improved Looks theme is reinforced by CURV's strategic focus on accelerating customer file growth and expanding sub-brands. While CURV's earnings didn't explicitly cite GLP-1s, its initiatives to capture new and reactivated customers for wardrobe updates align with the theme's premise of increased fashion spending post-weight loss. This suggests continued underlying demand in related consumer sectors, supported by efficient marketing.

Earnings Summary

BullishCURV

Constituents

  • AbbVie Inc.
  • AirSculpt Technologies, Inc.
  • Bumble Inc.
  • Torrid Holdings Inc.
  • Galderma Group AG
  • APYXT3
    · no notes yet
  • EOLST3
    · no notes yet
  • ESTAT3
    · no notes yet
  • GRNDT3
    · no notes yet
  • LTHT3
    · no notes yet
  • MTCHT3
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  • XPOFT3
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