Fiscal Spend '26: Tariff Unwind (open on stockthemes)

1. National Association of Realtors (NAR) — Existing Home Sales

Matched (medium)cand_national_association_of_realtors_nar_dcb014db · candidate

Metric/field EXHOSLUSM495S

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Directly impacts demand for 'heavy and bulky' home furnishings, a key driver for Wayfair and Floor & Decor. A sustained break above 4.2 million units signals a housing market unlock.

Signal to watch Consistently increasing month-over-month, moving above 4 million annualized units.

Confidence: high

2. U.S. Census Bureau / ITC Trade Data — US Imports by HS Code

Matched (medium)solid_state_storage_import_value · access=api

Metric/field Value of U.S. imports from China under HS 9403 (Furniture)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks the actual volume and value of tariff-affected goods entering the US from China, indicating the direct impact of tariff policies and supply chain diversification efforts.

Signal to watch Significant decrease in imports from China, or increase in imports from alternative countries (Vietnam, Mexico, India).

Confidence: high

3. BLS — Consumer Price Index

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field CUUR0000SEHG01 (CPI for Furniture and Bedding, U.S. City Average)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Indicates whether changes in import costs (due to tariffs or their unwind) are being passed through to consumers, affecting purchasing power and demand for home goods.

Signal to watch Sustained decrease in the index, suggesting lower costs passed to consumers.

Confidence: high

4. Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) — Trade Policy Announcements

Not in registry

Metric/field Decisions and outcomes of Section 301 tariff reviews and exclusions

Cadence event_driven

Why it matters Directly impacts the tariff landscape for imported goods, influencing costs for retailers like Wayfair and sourcing decisions for the industry.

Signal to watch Announcements of tariff reductions, exclusions, or removal of Section 301 tariffs.

Confidence: high

5. U.S. Census Bureau — Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS)

Matched (medium)solid_state_storage_import_value · access=api

Metric/field MRTSSM442USN (Retail Sales, Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores, Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Provides a broad indicator of consumer spending specifically within the home furnishings sector, reflecting overall demand trends.

Signal to watch Consistent month-over-month growth, indicating strengthening consumer demand in the sector.

Confidence: high

1. Google Trends — Search Interest

Not in registry

Metric/field Search interest for 'home renovation cost' (relative search volume)

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Rising search interest for home renovation costs indicates increasing consumer intent and potential future spending on home improvement projects.

Signal to watch Sustained increase in search interest, suggesting growing consumer confidence and project planning.

Confidence: high

2. Reddit — Subreddit Discussions

Matched (medium)cand_reddit_97b8dd0c · candidate

Metric/field Post volume and sentiment in r/supplychain related to global sourcing shifts and trade policies

Cadence daily/weekly

Why it matters Provides qualitative insights into real-world supply chain challenges, shifts in sourcing strategies, and the impact of trade policies on logistics costs and lead times.

Signal to watch Increased discussions on diversification away from China, or mentions of tariff impacts on specific goods/routes.

Confidence: medium

3. USASpending.gov — Federal Contract Awards

Matched (medium)cand_usaspending_gov_883b3088 · access=api · candidate

Metric/field Contract awards related to 'supply chain resilience' or 'manufacturing relocation' (keyword search)

Cadence quarterly

Why it matters Government contracts can signal broader initiatives and investments in supply chain diversification and domestic manufacturing, aligning with second-order trends of the theme.

Signal to watch Increase in the number and value of contracts awarded for supply chain resilience or reshoring initiatives.

Confidence: medium

4. Port of Los Angeles / Long Beach — Container Throughput Data

Matched (medium)cand_port_of_los_angeles_c9d364b0 · access=api · candidate

Metric/field Monthly TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) for imports from Asia

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Provides a real-time indicator of import volumes, reflecting global trade flows and potential shifts in sourcing patterns due to tariff changes or supply chain diversification.

Signal to watch Significant changes in import TEUs, especially from Asian countries, indicating shifts in trade volumes.

Confidence: high

5. Company Careers Pages (e.g., Wayfair, Floor & Decor) — Job Postings

Matched (medium)engine_advertising_brand_tracking · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Number of job postings for 'AI/ML engineering', 'logistics optimization', 'supply chain analyst' roles

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Increased hiring in specific tech and logistics roles indicates investment in supply chain resilience and automation, a key watchpoint for high-performing operators in the theme.

Signal to watch Consistent increase in relevant job postings, particularly in AI/ML and logistics optimization.

Confidence: medium

1. Drewry — World Container Index (WCI)

Matcheddrewry_world_container_index · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Composite Index (USD per 40ft container)

Cadence weekly

Why it matters A benchmark for global container freight rates, reflecting overall logistics costs and supply chain pressures, which are indirectly influenced by trade policies and sourcing shifts.

Signal to watch Sustained decrease in the index, indicating easing logistics costs and potential margin relief.

Confidence: high

2. Earnest Analytics — Transaction Data

Matched (medium)earnest_analytics_credit_debit_card_consumer_spend · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Home Improvement Spending: Transactions > $1,000 (Year-over-Year % change) for Floor & Decor and Wayfair

Cadence weekly/monthly

Why it matters Directly tracks consumer willingness to undertake larger, higher-value renovation projects at FND and W, indicating demand for 'heavy and bulky' goods.

Signal to watch Consistent positive year-over-year growth in high-value transactions, signaling strong consumer demand.

Confidence: high

3. Placer.ai — Store Foot Traffic

Matched (medium)placer_ai_foot_traffic_visits · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Year-over-Year % change in foot traffic for Floor & Decor and Wayfair physical store locations

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Provides insights into physical store performance and customer engagement, especially relevant for Wayfair's omnichannel strategy and Floor & Decor's store expansion.

Signal to watch Positive year-over-year growth in foot traffic, particularly for new Wayfair stores and established FND locations.

Confidence: high

4. Bloomberg Second Measure — Transaction Data

Matched (medium)bloomberg_second_measure_consumer_card_transactions · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Zip-code level transaction data for Wayfair in new store DMAs (Atlanta, Denver, Columbus)

Cadence weekly/monthly

Why it matters Directly measures the 'post-store visit lift' in surrounding trade areas for Wayfair's new physical stores, validating its omnichannel strategy.

Signal to watch Transaction growth in new store DMAs exceeding national averages, indicating successful market penetration.

Confidence: high

5. Thinknum — Web Traffic / Loyalty Program Tracking

Matched (medium)cand_thinknum_5c4f6534 · access=file · candidate

Metric/field Tracking 'Wayfair Rewards' sign-up prompts on Wayfair.com web traffic and membership growth proxies

Cadence weekly/monthly

Why it matters Monitors the effectiveness and scaling of Wayfair's loyalty program, a key lever for increasing order frequency and reducing reliance on expensive paid search.

Signal to watch Consistent increase in sign-up prompts and estimated membership growth, indicating successful loyalty program expansion.

Confidence: medium

1. US existing home sales for October (October 2026)

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Matchedexisting_home_sales · access=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxehsales

Why it matters Existing home sales are a critical driver for demand in the home furnishings and flooring sectors, directly impacting the sales performance and outlook for Wayfair (W) and Floor & Decor (FND). A sustained increase in existing home sales would signal a more favorable demand environment, potentially boosting revenue for these import-heavy retailers.

Series key pm_us_existing_home_sales_oct_2026

2. US tariff revenue for 2026

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Matched (medium)kalshi_senate_control_d · access=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtariffrevenue

Why it matters The total US tariff revenue for 2026 is a direct indicator of the overall tariff landscape. A lower-than-expected revenue could signal a significant unwinding of tariffs, which would reduce import costs for companies like Wayfair (W), a major importer of home furnishings, and potentially impact Floor & Decor (FND) by easing supply chain pressures and improving gross margins.

Series key pm_us_tariff_revenue_2026

3. US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Matched (medium)kalshi_senate_control_d · access=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxefftariff

Why it matters The US effective tariff rate directly impacts the cost of goods sold for import-heavy retailers such as Wayfair (W). A decrease in the effective tariff rate for Q3 2026 would immediately alleviate cost pressures, potentially improving gross margins and profitability for theme constituents. Floor & Decor (FND) also benefits from a more favorable tariff environment, as evidenced by its past IEEPA tariff refunds.

Series key pm_us_effective_tariff_rate_q3_2026