Home / Themes / Fiscal Spend '24: Aggregate Materials

Fiscal Spend '24: Aggregate Materials (view performance)

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Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).

Bull / Bear Details

The thesis for Fiscal Spend '24: Aggregate Materials is bullish as of Spring 2025. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) is driving substantial dema

Thesis

The thesis for Fiscal Spend '24: Aggregate Materials is bullish as of Spring 2025. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) is driving substantial demand for aggregates across multiple infrastructure projects in the U.S., providing significant tailwinds for companies in this sector. Despite some economic headwinds, the ongoing federal investment in infrastructure is expected to sustain growth for aggregate material producers.

Bull case

  • The IIJA is injecting $100 billion into infrastructure projects over five years, significantly boosting demand for aggregate materials.

  • Companies like VMI, VMC, SUM, and MLM are reporting strong earnings growth, citing increased demand due to infrastructure spending.

  • Aggregate producers benefit from long-term government commitments, mitigating short-term economic fluctuations.

Bear case

  • Economic slowdowns could impact the pace of infrastructure projects, potentially reducing immediate demand for aggregates.

  • Rising interest rates may increase borrowing costs for infrastructure projects, creating potential delays or cancellations.

  • Supply chain disruptions could elevate costs and impact margins for aggregate producers.

Google_Sheets

Overview

Hiring Trend Watchpoints

The theme's strength is reflected in persistent demand for skilled labor in infrastructure-related sectors. High-performing operators are actively hiring for civil engineers, project managers, and heavy equipment operators, particularly in water, sewer, power, and heavy civil construction. Geographically, states benefiting from significant infrastructure, energy, manufacturing, and data center investments (e.g., Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri) are leading in construction hiring. Conversely, a weakening theme would be indicated by a cooling of overall hiring activity despite persistent job openings, difficulty in filling leadership and field management roles, and increased overtime costs due to labor scarcity. Automation and digitalization are increasingly being adopted to enhance efficiency and mitigate labor shortages, so a focus on hiring for roles related to smart construction technologies and data management would confirm theme execution. Deterioration would be evident if hiring freezes or layoffs become widespread, especially in public infrastructure segments, or if states like California, Virginia, New York, Georgia, and Michigan continue to experience construction job losses.

Forum Watchlist

  • forum — Contractor Talkhigh

    General construction discussions, project challenges, material availability, labor issues

  • forum — r/civilengineering (Reddit)medium

    Civil engineering project discussions, career trends, technology adoption, policy impacts

  • forum — Eng-Tips Forums (Civil Engineering section)medium

    Technical discussions, project execution, tools, career advice

  • community — American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Forumshigh

    Industry standards, policy updates, professional development, regional project insights

  • forum — Builder's Talkmedium

    Construction business trends, material costs, project management

Second Order Trends

Several second-order trends are shaping the Fiscal Spend '24: Aggregate Materials theme. The growing emphasis on **Sustainable and Green Construction Materials** is a significant development, with increasing demand for recycled aggregates, low-carbon cement, and bio-based composites driven by regulatory pressures, ESG frameworks, and long-term cost-effectiveness. This includes innovations like recycled concrete aggregate (RCA) becoming more common in pavement bases and foundations. Another key trend is the accelerating **Digitalization and Automation in Construction**, encompassing the adoption of data analytics, cloud-based construction management software, mobile apps, material forecasting, and supply chain tracking tools. The integration of telematics and advanced automation in heavy equipment is also gaining traction to improve efficiency and address labor shortages. The surge in **Data Center Infrastructure Demand**, fueled by AI and cloud computing, is creating substantial incremental demand for associated civil site work, substations, transmission lines, and water infrastructure, indirectly boosting aggregate material needs. Finally, the impending **IIJA Funding Cliff** in September 2026, marking the end of the five-year authorization, is a critical near-term trend. While significant funds have been allocated and obligated, uncertainty around reauthorization could lead to a slowdown in new federal project awards, potentially increasing competition and squeezing contractor margins if new legislation is not enacted.

Search Keywords Brand Product

  • aggregate materials
  • crushed stone
  • sand and gravel
  • asphalt prices
  • concrete supply
  • recycled concrete aggregate
  • heavy construction equipment
  • road building materials

Search Keywords Policy Regulatory

  • IIJA
  • Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
  • BUILD grants
  • federal infrastructure spending
  • state DOT budgets
  • Highway Trust Fund
  • IIJA reauthorization

Search Keywords Event Phrases

  • infrastructure project awards
  • construction spending data
  • aggregate material prices
  • construction labor market trends
  • IIJA funding status
  • DOT grants awarded

Google Trend Product Category Intent

• buy crushed stone • asphalt paving cost • concrete delivery • heavy equipment rental near me • road construction companies

Google Trend Consumer Intent

• infrastructure jobs • road construction updates • public works projects • bridge repair projects • construction industry outlook

Google Trend Macro Policy Terms

• infrastructure spending bill • IIJA impact • federal infrastructure funding • US infrastructure projects • transportation bill

Top datasets to track

1. Aggregate Material Prices (USGS) Type: economic · Provider: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cadence: Quarterly Why it matters: Reflects cost trends impacting margins and pricing power for aggregate producers. Suggested query: USGS crushed stone sand gravel prices quarterly Confidence: high

2. Construction Spending Index (U.S. Census Bureau) Type: economic · Provider: U.S. Census Bureau Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: Indicates the overall level of activity in infrastructure and construction projects, signaling demand for materials. Suggested query: US Census Bureau construction spending monthly Confidence: high

3. IIJA Funding Status (U.S. DOT) Type: policy/government · Provider: U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) Cadence: Regularly Updated Why it matters: Tracks the pace of federal infrastructure spending, allocations, and obligations, crucial for understanding project pipeline visibility, especially with the upcoming IIJA funding cliff. Suggested query: US DOT IIJA funding status obligations Confidence: high

4. Producer Price Index (PPI) by Industry: Building Material and Supplies Dealers Type: economic · Provider: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: Provides granular and timely data on input cost inflation for a broad range of construction materials, including aggregates, asphalt, and fuel, directly impacting contractor margins. Suggested query: BLS PPI construction materials Confidence: high

5. Construction Employment Statistics (BLS) Type: labor · Provider: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Cadence: Monthly Why it matters: Monitors the health of the construction labor market, indicating labor availability, shortages, and wage pressures, which directly affect project execution and costs. Suggested query: BLS construction employment data Confidence: high

Industry Publications
[{"name": "Aggregates Business", "domain": "aggregatesbusiness.com", "why": "Covers global aggregates and building materials, equipment, plant automation, and digitalization trends."}, {"name": "Engineering News-Record (ENR)", "domain": "enr.com", "why": "Provides comprehensive coverage of heavy construction, infrastructure projects, market analysis, and policy impacts."}, {"name": "Construction Dive", "domain": "constructiondive.com", "why": "Offers insights into construction trends, material costs, labor market dynamics, and policy developments."}, {"name": "Roads & Bridges", "domain": "roadsbridges.com", "why": "Specialized coverage of highway, bridge, and road construction projects and related materials."}, {"name": "Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) Publications", "domain": "agc.org", "why": "Source for industry outlooks, labor market surveys, and material cost analyses."}, {"name": "U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Industry Surveys", "domain": "usgs.gov", "why": "Official source for quarterly and annual data on crushed stone, sand, and gravel production and prices."}, {"name": "Construction Equipment", "domain": "constructionequipment.com", "why": "Focuses on heavy machinery, technology, and market trends in construction equipment."}]

LLM_Approved · Updated 2026-07-23

Key Metrics3 rows
MetricCadenceWhat It SignalsUpdate Source
Aggregate Material PricesQuarterlyReflects cost trends impacting margins and pricing powerGoogle_Sheets
Construction Spending IndexMonthlyIndicates the level of activity in infrastructure projectsGoogle_Sheets
Infrastructure Bill OutlaysAnnuallyTracks the pace of federal infrastructure spendingGoogle_Sheets

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) · Updated 2025-12-17

Constituents

  • GVAT3
    — Granite Construction Incorporated
  • ROADT3
    — Construction Partners, Inc.
  • AMRZT3
    · no notes yet
  • CRHT3
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  • CXT3
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  • EXPT3
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  • GCC.MXT3
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  • KNFT3
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  • MCEMT3
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  • MLMT3
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  • RMIXT3
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  • SUMT3
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  • TTAMT3
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  • USLMT3
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  • VMCT3
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  • VMIT3
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