Data Owners '25: Travel, Local Intent & Mobility Data (open on stockthemes)

1. U.S. Census Bureau via FRED — Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services (MARTS)

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field RSFSDP (Advance Retail Sales: Food Services and Drinking Places, Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Serves as the primary macroeconomic benchmark for restaurant, bar, and dining expenditure, directly underpinning gross payment volume (GPV) for Toast (TOST) and food delivery volume for DoorDash (DASH) and Uber Eats (UBER).

Signal to watch Sustained YoY sales growth above 4% signals healthy dining-out discretionary spending; deceleration toward zero or negative indicates consumer retrenchment and delivery order compression.

Confidence: high

2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED — Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field CUSR0000SEHB (Consumer Price Index: Lodging Away from Home in U.S. City Average, Seasonally Adjusted)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Measures price inflation for hotels and motels, reflecting lodging pricing power and average daily rates (ADR) that dictate gross booking value (GBV) and take-rates for Airbnb (ABNB), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Expedia (EXPE), Marriott (MAR), and Hilton (HLT).

Signal to watch Sequential index appreciation indicates robust room pricing power and strong lodging demand; negative readings indicate promotional discounting and room rate degradation.

Confidence: high

3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) via FRED — Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field CUSR0000SETG01 (Consumer Price Index: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average, Seasonally Adjusted)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Directly tracks air passenger pricing trends, influencing gross booking volumes and agency distribution margins across global distribution systems (Amadeus IT Group AMS.MC) and online travel platforms (Booking, Expedia, Trip.com).

Signal to watch Moderate positive stability confirms healthy air travel demand without demand destruction; sharp drops signal excess capacity and yield compression for travel distribution intermediaries.

Confidence: high

4. U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) via FRED — Transportation Services Index (TSI)

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field TSIPSNGR (Passenger Transportation Services Index, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, Index 2000=100)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Aggregates physical passenger transit across domestic commercial aviation, passenger rail, and mass transit, providing an authoritative macro index for passenger mobility that feeds into urban ride-hailing (Uber, Lyft) and travel bookings.

Signal to watch Index trajectory expanding above 130 signals accelerating broad mobility velocity; downward revisions indicate softening passenger transit activity.

Confidence: high

5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) via FRED — Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field GASREGCOVW (Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices, Dollars per Gallon)

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Acts as the critical direct input cost for gig economy drivers and couriers across Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, and Grab; sharp fuel inflation increases driver acquisition costs, prompts fuel surcharges, and compresses platform net take-rates.

Signal to watch Rapid surges exceeding 15% in a quarter signal higher required partner incentives and margin pressure; stabilized or falling gas prices relieve driver friction and support marketplace profitability.

Confidence: high

1. U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) — TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers

Not in registry

Metric/field Total Traveler Throughput (Daily screened passenger count and YoY comparison vs. same weekday prior year)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Provides the highest-frequency official proxy for passenger air travel demand, acting as a real-time leading indicator for airport ride-hailing demand for Uber and Lyft, as well as downstream hotel occupancy for Booking, Expedia, Marriott, and Airbnb.

Signal to watch Daily throughput consistently running >5% above prior-year baselines confirms expanding passenger velocity; consecutive weeks of negative YoY throughput signal travel demand contraction.

Confidence: high

2. Google LLC — Google Trends / Search Interest Index

Not in registry

Metric/field Interest Over Time Index (0-100 normalized search score for topics: 'Hotels', 'Flights', 'Uber', 'Airbnb', and 'Food Delivery')

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Directly tracks top-of-funnel consumer travel and local mobility discovery before conversion, capturing Google's commanding position as the world's primary local-intent query and navigation surface.

Signal to watch Sustained inflection upward in category search indices precedes quarterly bookings acceleration; lagging interest points to top-of-funnel customer acquisition headwinds.

Confidence: high

3. OpenTable (Booking Holdings) — OpenTable State of the Restaurant Industry

Not in registry

Metric/field Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Daily Seated Diners (Total seated diners via online, phone, and walk-in by city and country)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Offers high-frequency real-world dining demand insights, serving as a direct operational gauge for restaurant point-of-sale volume for Toast (TOST) and an inverse or complementary indicator for off-premise delivery demand (DoorDash, Uber Eats).

Signal to watch Positive YoY seated diner trends confirm healthy local physical dining activity; sudden persistent drops flag restaurant foot-traffic weakness.

Confidence: high

4. FlightAware / ADS-B Exchange — Commercial Aviation Flight Tracker Data Feed

Not in registry

Metric/field Worldwide Commercial Passenger Flights Tracked (7-day moving average of completed commercial passenger flights)

Cadence daily

Why it matters Supplies high-frequency global airline operational flight volumes, serving as a primary operational activity proxy for Amadeus IT Group's global distribution systems (GDS) and air ticketing engines at Trip.com Group and Expedia.

Signal to watch Flight count expansions above seasonal expectations reflect airline capacity deployment and booking demand; unexpected flight schedule contractions warn of booking cancellations and GDS volume softness.

Confidence: high

5. New York City Taxi & Limousine Commission (TLC) — TLC Trip Record Data (High-Volume For-Hire Vehicle)

Not in registry

Metric/field HVFHV Monthly Total Dispatched Trips (trips_per_day) and Total Driver Pay / Passenger Fare (base_passenger_fare)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Delivers a complete, audited public dataset of rideshare trip volumes, passenger fares, and driver earnings in America's largest municipal mobility market, enabling precise share and take-rate comparisons between Uber and Lyft.

Signal to watch Share of dispatched trips shifting between Uber and Lyft indicates competitive dominance and pricing power in high-density urban corridors.

Confidence: high

1. STR / CoStar Group — STR Destination and Weekly Lodging Benchmark Report

Matched (medium)costar_group_leasing_rent_vacancy_data · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR, USD), Average Daily Rate (ADR, USD), and Occupancy Rate (%) broken down by geographic market and chain scale

Cadence irregular

Why it matters The global institutional standard for lodging performance data; directly tracks enterprise hotel performance for Marriott (MAR), Hilton (HLT), and Hyatt (H), while benchmarking alternative lodging pricing and occupancy for Airbnb and Booking Holdings.

Signal to watch RevPAR growth outpacing inflation driven by balanced ADR and occupancy gains confirms broad travel market strength; RevPAR contraction signals consumer trading down.

Confidence: high

2. Similarweb — Similarweb Digital Intelligence & App Analytics

Matchedsimilarweb_digital_marketing_referral_intelligence · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Monthly Active Users (MAU), Daily Active Users (DAU), and Web Visit-to-Checkout Conversion Rate for Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Grab, Airbnb, Booking.com, and Trip.com

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Provides cross-platform digital engagement, active usage, and conversion velocity data, capturing competitive audience share shifts and consumer adoption across super-apps and travel marketplaces.

Signal to watch App DAU/MAU ratios expanding YoY signal increasing platform engagement and customer stickiness; decelerating app engagement precedes reported active customer and booking shortfalls.

Confidence: high

3. Earnest Analytics / Bloomberg Second Measure — U.S. Consumer Transaction & Card Panel Data

Matchedbloomberg_second_measure_consumer_card_transactions · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Total Consumer Spend (USD, YoY % Change), Transaction Count, and Average Order Value (AOV) across Uber (Mobility & Delivery), Lyft, DoorDash, Airbnb, Instacart, and Toast merchants

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Offers high-coverage, transaction-level visibility into credit and debit card receipts, accurately predicting gross merchandise value (GMV), gross bookings, and market share trends ahead of company earnings calls.

Signal to watch Divergence in transaction volume growth between competitors indicates active market share migration (e.g., DoorDash vs. Uber Eats, or Uber vs. Lyft); overall cohort spend contraction warns of macro wallet-share compression.

Confidence: high

4. Placer.ai — Location-Based Foot Traffic Intelligence

Matchedplacer_ai_foot_traffic_visits · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Normalized Daily Foot Traffic Visits, Average Dwell Time (minutes), and Visitor Frequency Index for full-service and limited-service restaurants, hotel properties, and international airport terminals

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Utilizes anonymized cellular geolocation data to measure physical consumer presence at hospitality venues and travel gateways, validating underlying local merchant transaction volume for Toast, Yelp, Google Maps, and hotel chains.

Signal to watch Rising visit volumes and dwell times at restaurant chains correlate directly with Toast SaaS and payment processing volume; softening airport and hotel visits flag leisure travel slowdowns.

Confidence: high

5. ForwardKeys / Cirium — ForwardKeys Air Travel Forecast / Cirium Diio Mi

Matchedforwardkeys_airline_ticketing_bookings · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Forward Booked Passenger Volume (Net confirmed forward bookings indexed by booking lead-time window, destination region, and cabin tier)

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Aggregates advance global airline ticket reservation feeds and global distribution bookings, providing a 6-to-12 month forward demand curve for Amadeus IT Group, Booking Holdings, Expedia, and Trip.com Group.

Signal to watch Steepening forward booking curves with extended lead times indicate durable consumer willingness to commit travel capital; collapsing advance booking windows indicates consumer uncertainty and last-minute discount hunting.

Confidence: high

1. Will Waymo offer ride-hailing services in <count> cities on <date>?

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/waymocities

Why it matters Tracks the geographic commercial expansion and municipal regulatory approvals of autonomous ride-hailing. Waymo is owned by Alphabet (GOOGL) and serves as Uber's (UBER) key third-party autonomous partner in markets like Austin and Atlanta, directly impacting Uber's strategy to become the dominant global AV commercialization and demand aggregation layer.

Series key pm_waymo_city_expansion

2. Will Google be forced to break up?

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgooglebreakup/google-breakup

Why it matters Antitrust structural remedies and behavioral mandates regarding Google (GOOGL) search and operating system bundling directly alter search distribution, local discovery, and mandatory data syndication of intent data, influencing traffic acquisition costs and organic discovery for major travel and local platforms like Booking (BKNG), Expedia (EXPE), Yelp (YELP), and DoorDash (DASH).

Series key pm_google_antitrust_breakup

3. Will Tesla's robotaxi be offered in California without supervision?

Kalshi · Confidence: medium

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrobotaxica/robotaxi-california

Why it matters Unsupervised commercial robotaxi permitting by California regulators (CPUC/DMV) represents the primary regulatory gate for autonomous rideshare competition against Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) in their highest-grossing regional mobility market, threatening take rates and driver network moats.

Series key pm_robotaxi_california_approval