Beauty '26: Haircare (open on stockthemes)

1. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — Retail and Food Services Sales

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field RSFS

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Measures overall consumer spending across retail and food services, directly impacting sales for all haircare segments (luxury, mass market, salon services, and direct-to-consumer health platforms).

Signal to watch Sustained growth indicates strong consumer demand; deceleration or decline suggests consumer caution and potential headwinds for discretionary haircare purchases.

Confidence: high

2. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — Personal Consumption Expenditures

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field PCE

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Reflects the total spending by individuals on goods and services, including discretionary items like premium haircare and salon visits, as well as essential products.

Signal to watch Consistent growth in PCE suggests healthy consumer finances and willingness to spend on both essential and non-essential haircare products and services.

Confidence: high

3. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — Unemployment Rate

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field UNRATE

Cadence monthly

Why it matters A healthy labor market and low unemployment generally lead to higher consumer confidence and disposable income, supporting spending on both essential and discretionary haircare products and services.

Signal to watch Declining unemployment or stable low rates are bullish, indicating a robust consumer base; rising unemployment signals potential consumer belt-tightening.

Confidence: high

4. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — Producer Price Index by Commodity

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field WPU061 (Chemicals and Allied Products)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Tracks the wholesale prices of chemical and allied products, which are key raw materials for many haircare manufacturers (OLPX, PG, HEN3.XETRA), impacting their cost of goods sold and profitability.

Signal to watch Stable or declining prices are bullish for margins; sustained increases indicate potential cost pressures that may be passed on to consumers or erode profitability.

Confidence: high

5. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — Consumer Confidence Index

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field CONFCONSUM

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Reflects consumers' optimism about the economy and their financial situation, influencing their willingness to spend on discretionary items like premium haircare, salon services, and new treatments.

Signal to watch Rising confidence is bullish, suggesting increased spending; falling confidence indicates potential cutbacks on non-essential purchases.

Confidence: high

1. Google Trends — Search Interest

Not in registry

Metric/field Relative Search Volume for 'hair loss treatment', 'bond repair hair', 'affordable haircut', 'luxury shampoo'

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Indicates evolving consumer interest and demand across different haircare segments, from therapeutic treatments (KVUE, HIMS) to premium innovation (OLPX), mass-market services (RGS), and luxury products (OR.PA).

Signal to watch Increasing search volume for specific terms suggests growing market interest and potential demand for related products/services; declining volume may indicate waning interest.

Confidence: high

2. Social Media (e.g., Twitter, Reddit) — Public Sentiment Analysis

Not in registry

Metric/field Aggregate sentiment score for 'Olaplex', 'Supercuts', 'Kérastase', 'Rogaine', 'Pantene' mentions

Cadence daily

Why it matters Provides real-time insights into consumer perception, brand loyalty, and reactions to new products or services for key theme constituents, influencing purchasing decisions.

Signal to watch Sustained positive sentiment is bullish, indicating strong brand health; negative trends could signal product issues or reputational damage.

Confidence: medium

3. YouTube / TikTok — Content Engagement Metrics

Not in registry

Metric/field Total views and engagement (likes, comments) for top 100 trending videos tagged 'haircare tutorial', 'hair product review', 'hair styling tips'

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Highlights emerging trends, popular products, and consumer preferences in haircare, influencing product development and marketing strategies for theme members.

Signal to watch High and growing engagement with specific product types or brands is bullish; declining engagement or shifts to competitor products could be bearish.

Confidence: medium

4. Apple App Store / Google Play Store — App Reviews and Ratings

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field Average star rating and total number of reviews for 'Hims & Hers Health', 'Supercuts App', 'Sephora App', 'Ulta Beauty App'

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Reflects user satisfaction and engagement with digital platforms relevant to haircare product discovery, purchase, and salon services, particularly for HIMS and broader industry trends.

Signal to watch Improving ratings and increasing review volume are bullish, indicating strong user adoption and satisfaction; declining metrics could signal issues with user experience or service.

Confidence: medium

5. Indeed / LinkedIn (public data) — Job Postings Data

Not in registry

Metric/field Total number of unique job postings for 'hair stylist', 'barber', 'salon manager' in key geographies (US, Europe)

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Serves as a proxy for the health and growth of the professional salon and styling industry, which directly impacts B2B suppliers (SBH, HEN3.XETRA) and salon chains (RGS, OR.PA).

Signal to watch Increasing job postings suggest expansion and demand in the professional haircare sector; declining postings could indicate contraction or saturation.

Confidence: medium

1. Third-party credit card data providers (e.g., Facteus, Earnest Research) — Aggregated Credit Card Transaction Data

Matched (medium)facteus_payment_card_transactions · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Total dollar spending and transaction count for 'Beauty Supply Stores (HS6 3350)', 'Hair & Nail Salons (NAICS 812112)', 'Olaplex.com', 'Hims.com', 'Hers.com'

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Provides granular, real-time insights into consumer spending patterns across various haircare channels, directly reflecting sales performance for both products and services.

Signal to watch Consistent growth in spending and transactions is bullish; significant declines indicate weakening consumer demand in the sector.

Confidence: high

2. Similarweb / Comscore — Web Traffic Analytics

Matched (medium)similarweb_website_traffic_engagement · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Unique visitors, total page views, and estimated conversion rates for 'olaplex.com', 'supercuts.com', 'loreal.com/en/brands/hair-care', 'sephora.com/hair', 'ulta.com/hair'

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Measures online consumer interest, brand engagement, and purchasing intent for key haircare brands and retailers, offering a leading indicator of sales trends.

Signal to watch Increasing web traffic and conversion rates are bullish, indicating strong online demand; declining metrics suggest reduced consumer interest or competitive pressure.

Confidence: high

3. Sensor Tower / Apptopia — Mobile App Intelligence

Matchedapptopia_app_downloads_rankings · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Monthly Active Users (MAU), total downloads, and average session duration for 'Hims & Hers Health', 'Supercuts App', 'Mindbody (salon booking)'

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Offers detailed insights into the adoption and sustained engagement with digital platforms for health and beauty services, crucial for HIMS's subscription model and the broader salon market.

Signal to watch Growth in MAU and downloads, coupled with high engagement, is bullish; declining metrics could signal user churn or competitive challenges.

Confidence: high

4. Panjiva / ImportGenius — Global Trade Data

Matched (medium)importgenius_customs_import_export_records · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Import/export volumes and average lead times for HS codes related to 'hair preparations (HS 3305)', 'organic surface-active agents (HS 3402)', 'silicones (HS 3910)' for major manufacturers (e.g., Henkel, P&G, L'Oréal)

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Provides early indicators of potential supply chain disruptions, raw material availability, and cost pressures for haircare manufacturers, impacting production and pricing.

Signal to watch Stable or increasing shipment volumes with consistent lead times are bullish; significant fluctuations or extended lead times could signal supply chain issues and cost increases.

Confidence: medium

5. NielsenIQ / Circana (formerly IRI) — Retail Point-of-Sale Data

Matchednielseniq_retail_pos_scanner_data · access=file · map_only

Metric/field Unit sales, dollar sales, and average selling price for 'shampoo', 'conditioner', 'hair color', 'styling products' across professional salons and mass market retailers (e.g., Walmart, Target, Ulta)

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Offers direct, granular data on actual sales performance and pricing power for haircare products across different distribution channels, reflecting consumer preferences and market share shifts.

Signal to watch Growing unit and dollar sales, especially at stable or increasing average selling prices, are bullish; declining sales or heavy promotional activity could indicate competitive pressure or weakening demand.

Confidence: high

1. When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://www.kalshi.com/markets/fda-odds-predictions-2026

Why it matters Hims & Hers (HIMS), a key constituent of the Beauty '26: Haircare theme, is actively expanding its offerings into peptide therapies. The reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 by the FDA would provide regulatory clarity, allowing compounding pharmacies, including those HIMS partners with, to legally offer this specific peptide with a clinician's prescription. This regulatory decision is a critical theme-specific driver, directly impacting HIMS's ability to grow its peptide-related revenue streams and overall market opportunity.

Series key pm_fda_bpc157_reclassification