Archetypes '24: American Everyman (open on stockthemes)

1. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — Retail and Food Services Sales

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field RETAILSMVRP

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Directly reflects the overall health of consumer spending across various sectors, crucial for retail-heavy theme members like WMT, AMZN, COST, HD, DKS, NKE, MCD, and TAP.

Signal to watch Sustained month-over-month growth or acceleration indicates robust consumer demand; deceleration or contraction suggests weakening consumer confidence and spending.

Confidence: high

2. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field CPIAUCSL

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Measures inflation, which directly impacts the purchasing power of the American Everyman and influences the cost of goods sold and pricing strategies for all theme constituents.

Signal to watch A declining or stable CPI suggests easing inflationary pressures, potentially boosting discretionary spending; accelerating CPI indicates continued pressure on consumers and company margins.

Confidence: high

3. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field UNRATE

Cadence monthly

Why it matters A fundamental indicator of household financial stability and income. Lower unemployment generally correlates with higher consumer confidence and spending capacity.

Signal to watch A decreasing unemployment rate signals a strong job market and healthy consumer finances; an increasing rate suggests economic weakness and potential strain on household budgets.

Confidence: high

4. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field HOUST

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Directly impacts Home Depot (HD) and the broader home improvement market. New construction drives demand for building materials and home furnishings.

Signal to watch Increasing housing starts indicate a healthy housing market and future demand for home-related goods; declining starts suggest a slowdown in construction and potential headwinds for HD.

Confidence: high

5. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) — Personal Income and Outlays

Not in registryaccess=api

Metric/field PI

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Represents the total income received by individuals, providing a broad measure of the financial capacity of the American Everyman to spend and save.

Signal to watch Consistent growth in personal income supports consumer spending and overall economic activity; stagnation or decline indicates financial tightening for households.

Confidence: high

1. Google Trends — Search Interest

Not in registry

Metric/field search_interest_for_term:Walmart

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Serves as a real-time proxy for general consumer interest and engagement with a leading mainstream retailer, reflecting overall consumption trends.

Signal to watch Rising search interest suggests increasing consumer activity and potential sales for general retail; declining interest may indicate reduced consumer engagement.

Confidence: medium

2. Google Trends — Search Interest

Not in registry

Metric/field search_interest_for_term:Home Depot

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Indicates consumer intent and activity related to home improvement projects, directly relevant for HD and the broader housing-related spending.

Signal to watch An upward trend in search interest implies increased DIY or professional project planning; a downward trend suggests a slowdown in home improvement activity.

Confidence: medium

3. AAA — Gas Prices

Not in registry

Metric/field national_average_regular_unleaded_price

Cadence daily

Why it matters Gas prices directly impact discretionary spending for the American Everyman, affecting travel, commuting, and the cost of goods, particularly relevant for COST (gasoline sales) and F/ORLY (vehicle usage).

Signal to watch Decreasing gas prices free up consumer spending for other goods and services; increasing prices act as a tax on consumers, potentially reducing discretionary purchases.

Confidence: high

4. Reddit — Subreddit Posts and Comments

Not in registry

Metric/field sentiment_score:r/McDonalds

Cadence daily

Why it matters Provides qualitative, real-time insights into customer and employee perceptions of McDonald's operations, service, and value, which directly impacts brand reputation and repeat visits.

Signal to watch Improving sentiment (e.g., positive mentions of service speed, value) suggests operational improvements are resonating; declining sentiment indicates ongoing issues.

Confidence: medium

5. App Store / Google Play — App Performance Data

Not in registry

Metric/field daily_downloads:Amazon Shopping

Cadence daily

Why it matters Reflects engagement with Amazon's core e-commerce platform, indicating the strength of online shopping habits among mainstream consumers.

Signal to watch Consistent or increasing daily downloads and active users suggest strong digital consumer engagement; a decline may signal reduced online shopping activity.

Confidence: medium

1. Placer.ai — Retail Foot Traffic

Matched (medium)placer_ai_foot_traffic_visits · access=file · map_only

Metric/field store_foot_traffic_YoY_change:Walmart

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Provides a direct measure of physical store visitation trends for the largest mainstream retailer, indicating real-world consumer activity and WMT's market share.

Signal to watch Positive and accelerating YoY foot traffic growth suggests strong in-store consumer demand; negative or decelerating growth indicates weakening physical retail engagement.

Confidence: high

2. Earnest Research — Consumer Transaction Data

Not in registry

Metric/field home_improvement_spending_by_ticket_size_>$1000

Cadence monthly

Why it matters Specifically tracks discretionary spending on larger home improvement projects, crucial for understanding the health of HD's 'Big Ticket' sales and consumer confidence in major renovations.

Signal to watch Growth in high-ticket spending indicates consumer willingness to invest in larger projects; a decline suggests caution and a focus on smaller, essential repairs.

Confidence: high

3. M Science — Restaurant Sales Data

Not in registry

Metric/field US_comparable_sales_growth_McDonalds

Cadence weekly

Why it matters Offers granular, timely insights into McDonald's core U.S. performance, directly addressing management's focus on improving domestic execution and value offerings.

Signal to watch Consistent positive comparable sales growth and transaction increases signal successful execution of strategy; declines indicate ongoing operational challenges or competitive pressure.

Confidence: high

4. Sensor Tower — App Usage & Engagement

Not in registry

Metric/field daily_active_users_ad_supported_tier:Netflix

Cadence daily

Why it matters Directly measures the adoption and engagement of Netflix's ad-supported tier, a key new revenue driver and monetization strategy for the company.

Signal to watch Increasing DAU for the ad-supported tier suggests successful subscriber acquisition and engagement, validating the advertising business model; stagnation may indicate slower adoption.

Confidence: high

5. Counterpoint Research — Smartphone Market Share

Matched (medium)counterpoint_research_device_shipments_market_share · access=file · map_only

Metric/field global_market_share:iPhone

Cadence irregular

Why it matters Provides an independent assessment of Apple's performance in its most critical product category, indicating the strength of demand and competitive positioning for the iPhone.

Signal to watch Sustained or increasing global market share for iPhone indicates strong product cycles and brand loyalty; a decline may signal competitive pressures or weakening demand.

Confidence: high

1. Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs this year?

Kalshi · Confidence: high

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/CIT-strike-down-Trump-Section-301-tariffs-this-year

Why it matters A ruling striking down Section 301 tariffs would reduce import costs for retailers like Home Depot and manufacturers like Ford, positively impacting their gross margins and profitability. Conversely, if the tariffs remain, these companies could face continued cost pressures.

Series key pm_us_section_301_tariffs_cit_ruling

2. Will the US government formally restrict public access to at least one major Chinese AI model before December 31, 2026?

Polymarket · Confidence: high

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-government-formally-restrict-public-access-to-at-least-one-major-chinese-ai-model-before-december-31-2026

Why it matters Restrictions on Chinese AI models could impact the global operations, competitive landscape, and the availability of AI tools for tech companies like Apple, Amazon (AWS), and Netflix. This could affect their service revenue growth, R&D costs, and market access, especially for AI features and services.

Series key pm_us_china_ai_model_restrictions

3. Will China announce looser rare-earth export curbs to the U.S. this month?

Kalshi · Confidence: medium

Not in registryaccess=api

Market https://kalshi.com/markets/china-looser-rare-earth-export-curbs-us-this-month

Why it matters Rare earth elements are critical inputs for various consumer electronics and automotive components. Looser export curbs from China would reduce supply chain risks and potentially lower input costs for companies like Apple (electronics) and Ford (vehicles), positively impacting their production and profitability.

Series key pm_china_rare_earth_export_curbs