Home / Themes / AI Power '26: Wide Bandgap & Discrete Power
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Theme thesis · 5/5 sections · Tickers 11 with notes · 3 pending
Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).
The theme is compellingly bullish, fueled by accelerating, supply-limited AI data center demand for high-efficiency power solutions. The structural shift to Wid
The theme is compellingly bullish, fueled by accelerating, supply-limited AI data center demand for high-efficiency power solutions. The structural shift to Wide Bandgap (SiC/GaN) semiconductors and advanced power infrastructure is critical for 800V DC architectures, creating a robust multi-year growth runway despite macroeconomic cyclicality and intense competition.
Accelerating AI data center demand, particularly the rapid adoption of 800V DC power architectures, is driving unprecedented need for high-density, high-efficiency power supply units and components. This necessitates a significant increase in wide bandgap semiconductor content per rack, creating a multi-year growth runway, as evidenced by surging AI revenues across constituents.
The structural transition from traditional silicon to Wide Bandgap (SiC and GaN) semiconductors is gaining critical mass across high-power applications. These materials offer superior efficiency, thermal performance, and power density, essential for managing extreme power requirements and reducing energy consumption in next-generation AI infrastructure and enabling new 10kV SiC solutions.
Broader electrification trends, including grid modernization, industrial automation, and energy storage systems, are creating substantial demand for robust power infrastructure and advanced power electronics. This diversification beyond AI data centers provides additional, long-term secular growth drivers for theme constituents, supported by strong industrial and energy storage system (ESS) revenue growth.
Many theme constituents retain significant exposure to cyclical industrial, automotive, and consumer markets. A prolonged or uneven global macroeconomic recovery, persistent inflation, or geopolitical tensions could lead to demand deceleration in these segments, offsetting gains from AI and impacting overall revenue and profitability, as seen in continued weakness in consumer and some automotive segments.
The rapid scaling of wide bandgap manufacturing capacity, particularly for SiC wafers and GaN devices, introduces significant execution risks. Delays in new fab ramp-ups, supply chain bottlenecks for specialized materials, or underutilization costs if demand fluctuates could lead to missed targets and margin pressure, with several constituents reporting negative gross margins due to underutilization.
The wide bandgap power semiconductor market is highly competitive, with large incumbents and pure-play specialists vying for market share. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressure, particularly in SiC, and requires continuous innovation. Additionally, legal and integration risks from recent M&A activities and patent infringement lawsuits among theme members could create operational and financial headwinds.
Discussions on AI server hardware, power supply units (PSUs), and thermal solutions; user experiences with high-power components, especially wide bandgap integration and 800V architectures.
Discussions on SiC/GaN technology, manufacturing processes, industry news, and competitive dynamics within the power semiconductor market.
Deep technical discussions on power electronics, GaN/SiC devices, efficiency challenges, and design considerations for high-power applications.
Discussions on enterprise hardware, data center builds, server power efficiency, and rack-level power distribution in AI infrastructure.
Discussions on high-performance computing, AI hardware, power consumption, and advanced cooling solutions for data centers.
Not in registry
Metric/field Global AI Data Center Electricity Demand (TWh)
Cadence Annual/Bi-annual
Why it matters Accelerating growth in AI data center power consumption signals increasing demand for wide bandgap and discrete power solutions.
Signal to watch Sustained or increasing TWh forecasts for AI data centers.
Confidence: high
Matchedgartner_it_spending_market_forecasts · access=file · map_only
Metric/field Global AI Data Center Infrastructure Capital Expenditure (USD)
Cadence irregular
Why it matters Increasing capital expenditure on AI-optimized data center infrastructure signals robust investment in underlying demand.
Signal to watch Upward revisions or actual increases in AI data center CapEx.
Confidence: high
Matched (medium)semi_fab_capacity_forecasts · access=file · map_only
Metric/field Global Wide Bandgap (SiC & GaN) Power Semiconductor Market Size (USD)
Cadence irregular
Why it matters Sustained high growth in the SiC and GaN power semiconductor market indicates strong adoption.
Signal to watch Consistent high growth rates (e.g., >20% YoY) in SiC and GaN market size.
Confidence: high
Matched (medium)semi_semiconductor_equipment_billings · access=file · map_only
Metric/field Global Semiconductor Sales (Monthly, in $ millions)
Cadence irregular
Why it matters Reflects the overall health and demand trends in the global semiconductor industry, impacting all theme members.
Signal to watch Consistent month-over-month and year-over-year growth in global semiconductor sales.
Confidence: high
Not in registry
Metric/field LME Copper Price (USD/tonne)
Cadence daily
Why it matters Directly impacts the cost of goods sold and gross margins for infrastructure providers like Atkore and Hammond Power Solutions.
Signal to watch Stable or declining copper prices to ease cost pressures; rising prices if passed through.
Confidence: medium
Not in registry
Metric/field Search interest for 'Silicon Carbide power' (normalized index)
Cadence weekly
Why it matters Indicates general market and industry interest in a core wide bandgap technology.
Signal to watch Sustained or increasing search interest.
Confidence: high
Not in registry
Metric/field Search interest for 'AI data center power supply' (normalized index)
Cadence weekly
Why it matters Reflects general market and industry interest in critical AI infrastructure components, a core growth area.
Signal to watch Sustained or increasing search interest.
Confidence: high
Matched (medium)engine_advertising_brand_tracking · access=file · map_only
Metric/field Number of job postings for 'SiC Engineer' and 'GaN Engineer' (global, aggregated)
Cadence irregular
Why it matters Signals R&D and manufacturing investment in key wide bandgap technologies across the industry.
Signal to watch Increasing number of specialized job postings.
Confidence: medium
Not in registry
Metric/field Mentions of '800V DC power' or 'AI server PSU' (sentiment analysis)
Cadence daily
Why it matters Tracks emerging technology adoption discussions and sentiment around critical AI power architectures.
Signal to watch Increasing positive mentions or discussions of adoption.
Confidence: medium
Matched (medium)semi_semiconductor_equipment_billings · access=file · map_only
Metric/field Announcements of CHIPS Act funding awards for semiconductor manufacturing projects (specific to SiC/GaN)
Cadence irregular
Why it matters Tracks government support for domestic manufacturing, directly benefiting several theme members.
Signal to watch New, substantial funding announcements or project approvals.
Confidence: high
Not in registryaccess=file
Metric/field Total employee count for Infineon, onsemi, Wolfspeed, Navitas (aggregated)
Cadence monthly
Why it matters Provides an independent measure of workforce growth or contraction, indicating operational scale and investment across key theme members.
Signal to watch Consistent month-over-month growth in employee count.
Confidence: high
Matched (medium)engine_advertising_brand_tracking · access=file · map_only
Metric/field Number of job postings for 'Power Semiconductor Design Engineer' by theme members (e.g., IFX, ON, NVTS)
Cadence irregular
Why it matters Indicates investment in R&D and manufacturing capacity for critical power technologies.
Signal to watch Increasing number of specialized job postings.
Confidence: high
Matched (medium)semi_semiconductor_equipment_billings · access=file · map_only
Metric/field SiC and GaN power device market share by application (e.g., AI data centers, automotive EV)
Cadence irregular
Why it matters Provides detailed market size, growth rates, and technology adoption trends for the core wide bandgap market.
Signal to watch Increasing market share for SiC/GaN in AI and EV applications.
Confidence: high
Not in registry
Metric/field Qualitative insights on 800V DC architecture adoption rates and challenges in AI data centers
Cadence monthly/quarterly
Why it matters Provides forward-looking insights into technology adoption, design wins, and competitive dynamics from industry insiders.
Signal to watch Positive sentiment and increasing adoption mentions for 800V DC and wide bandgap.
Confidence: medium
Matched (medium)s_p_global_trade_supply_chain_data · access=file · map_only
Metric/field Average lead times for wide bandgap power semiconductors (e.g., SiC MOSFETs, GaN ICs)
Cadence irregular
Why it matters Directly indicates the supply/demand balance for critical components, signaling potential bottlenecks or oversupply.
Signal to watch Stable or increasing lead times suggest strong demand; declining lead times suggest easing demand or increased supply.
Confidence: high
| Metric | Cadence | What It Signals | Update Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global AI Data Center Electricity Demand (TWh) | Annual/Bi-annual | Accelerating growth in AI data center power consumption signals increasing demand for wide bandgap and discrete power solutions, supporting the theme's bullish outlook. | LLM_Approved |
| Global Wide Bandgap (SiC & GaN) Power Semiconductor Market Size (USD) | Quarterly/Annually | Sustained high growth in the SiC and GaN power semiconductor market indicates strong adoption of these efficient materials in AI power, validating the theme's core technology shift. | LLM_Approved |
| Global AI Data Center Infrastructure Capital Expenditure (USD) | Quarterly/Annual | Increasing capital expenditure on AI-optimized data center infrastructure signals robust investment in the underlying demand for wide bandband and discrete power components. | LLM_Approved |
| Catalyst | Estimated Timing | Estimated Date Start | Estimated Date End | Why It Matters | Ticker Or Theme Specific | Source Types | Contributing Tickers | Mention Count | Base Score | Source Weight | Specificity Weight | Macro Bridge | Macro Bridge Multiplier | Theme Score | Date Aggregated | Manual Override | Bridge Mention Count | Theme Base Score | Theme Importance Score | Catalyst Source | Catalyst ID | Transcript Date | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continued acceleration in the adoption of 800V DC architectures and wide bandgap (SiC/GaN) power solutions within AI data centers, driven by increasing power density and efficiency demands. | Ongoing through H2 2026 and into 2027, with key updates expected during Q3/Q4 2026 earnings seasons and industry conferences. | 2026-08-26 | 2027-12-31 | This is the fundamental driver for the entire investment theme, directly impacting demand for advanced power semiconductors and related infrastructure. The shift to 800V DC is being forced by exponential AI power demand, making traditional AC power distribution obsolete and significantly reducing copper requirements while increasing power density. Increased adoption signifies successful technological transitions and will drive significant revenue growth and market share shifts across materials, components, and power system providers. | Theme | theme_composer | IFX.XETRA, ON, WOLF, POWI, 6963.T, NVTS, TXN, AOSL, ACLS, XFAB.PA, ATKR, DIOD, FPS, HPS-A.TO | 14 | 0.0103 | 1.18 | 0.85 | Conference/Council | 1.2 | 1.2409 | 2026-09-12 | False | 1 | 2.6847 | 323.1287 | Theme composer | |||
| Further progress and allocation of funding from the EU Chips Act and US semiconductor manufacturing incentives, accelerating investments in wide bandgap semiconductor production and R&D. | Ongoing throughout H2 2026 and into 2027, with potential announcements of new project approvals or funding rounds. The US CHIPS Act tax credit deadline for fab construction is December 31, 2026, and EU Chips Act 2.0 is scheduled for Q2 2027. | 2026-09-12 | 2027-12-31 | Government incentives and funding are critical for de-risking and accelerating the capital-intensive expansion of wide bandgap manufacturing capacity. This directly benefits equipment providers like Axcelis, foundries like X-Fab, and integrated device manufacturers such as Infineon, onsemi, and Texas Instruments, by supporting their investments and enhancing supply chain resilience. | Theme | theme_composer | IFX.XETRA, ON, WOLF, TXN, ACLS, XFAB.PA | 6 | 0.01 | 1.18 | 0.85 | Regulatory/Policy | 1.35 | 1.3586 | 2026-09-12 | False | 1 | 1.0769 | 145.8211 | Theme composer | |||
| Infineon's Dresden Smart Power Fab production ramp-up and increasing utilization for AI MOSFETs and analog/mixed-signal products. | Ongoing through H2 2026 and into 2027, following the fab's opening in July 2026. | 2026-07-02 | 2027-12-31 | The new Smart Power Fab in Dresden, which opened ahead of schedule in July 2026, is critical for Infineon to ramp high-margin AI MOSFETs and analog/mixed-signal products, supporting its projected tenfold increase in AI sales by FY27. Successful execution here is crucial for meeting AI-driven demand and improving Infineon's product mix and structural margins, with potential read-through for equipment suppliers like Axcelis and manufacturing partners like X-Fab. | Ticker | theme_composer | IFX.XETRA, ACLS, XFAB.PA | 3 | 0.0019 | 1.18 | 0.85 | 1.0 | 0.192 | 2026-09-12 | False | 1 | 0.4159 | 41.7196 | Theme composer | ||||
| Alleviation of unabsorbed overheads in new Mexico factories due to increased backlog and pricing actions offsetting negative inflationary impacts on material inputs. | in 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | This is expected to improve gross margins and overall profitability in 2026 by optimizing factory utilization and mitigating cost pressures, which could positively impact investor sentiment. | Ticker | HPS-A.TO (ticker) | HPS-A.TO_99dfdaba | 2025-10-24 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Hammond Power Solutions reaching a total manufacturing capacity of approximately $1.2 billion across its facilities. | by 2027 | 2026-07-09 | 2027-12-31 | This capacity expansion is critical for meeting the increasing demand for data center and other large projects, supporting long-term revenue growth and market position. | Ticker | HPS-A.TO (ticker) | HPS-A.TO_00916df3 | 2025-10-24 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Reduction of Mobile business to 'insignificant' levels as a percentage of revenue (management: Mobile to become insignificant by end of '26). | by the end of 2026 | 2026-10-01 | 2026-12-31 | If mobile revenue falls as guided, the mix shift to higher‑margin high‑power markets should lift ASPs and gross margins; if mobile remains material, the pivot to Navitas 2.0 is incomplete and margin expansion will be harder to achieve. | Ticker | NVTS (ticker) | NVTS_26d3d5dc | 2026-02-24 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Customer qualifications/design wins for Navitas' 100V and 650V GaN products and reference 10 kW 800V→50V all‑GaN DC-DC platform (samples being evaluated by > a dozen customers and co‑development boards in use). | ongoing sampling and customer evaluations; material P&L contributions expected in 2027 | 2026-02-24 | 2027-12-31 | Confirmed hyperscaler/ODM design wins and production qualifications would drive materially higher content per rack and revenue (bullish); prolonged sampling, failed qualifications or wins by competitors would delay the expected 2027 inflection and pressure valuation (bearish). | Ticker | NVTS (ticker) | NVTS_67a24c58 | 2026-02-24 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Start of production under the long-term GaN technology and manufacturing partnership with GlobalFoundries (U.S.) announced Nov 20, 2025. | production expected to begin later in the year | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | On‑shoring and foundry production with GlobalFoundries could materially reduce unit costs, support secure supply to U.S. hyperscalers and enable scale; delays or underperformance would hurt cost reduction plans, margins and timing of revenue ramp. | Ticker | NVTS (ticker) | NVTS_78152770 | 2026-02-24 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Completion of the Lehi 2 manufacturing shell, providing additional clean room space for the Embedded Processing segment. | at the end of this year | 2026-10-01 | 2026-12-31 | This expansion is crucial for supporting anticipated growth in the embedded side and ensures TI has the capacity to meet future demand seamlessly. | Ticker | TXN (ticker) | TXN_e7a2856f | 2026-07-22 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Receipt of the remaining direct funding from the CHIPS Act, out of the 'up to $1.6 billion' agreement, as Texas Instruments fulfills various milestones. | over the coming years | 2026-04-24 | 2029-04-24 | This additional funding provides non-dilutive capital for Texas Instruments' manufacturing investments, supporting capacity expansion and potentially enhancing free cash flow. | Ticker | TXN (ticker) | TXN_5449e75a | 2026-04-22 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Trend of inventory days towards the lower end of TI's 150-250 day target range. | during an upturn | 2026-07-08 | 2027-06-30 | A decrease in inventory days indicates robust demand absorption and efficient supply chain management, which is bullish. An increase or stable high levels could signal weakening demand. | Ticker | TXN (ticker) | TXN_bce0ae09 | 2026-04-22 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Texas Instruments' ability to implement price increases in the second half of 2026, contingent on sustained strong demand signals. | second half of the year | 2026-07-01 | 2026-12-31 | If demand remains robust, successful price increases could materially improve gross margins and overall profitability for Texas Instruments. | Ticker | TXN (ticker) | TXN_fa8d3238 | 2026-04-22 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings reports and subsequent FY2027 guidance from core theme members will provide critical updates on AI-related revenue growth, gross margin expansion, and manufacturing capacity utilization. | Late October 2026 through February 2027, covering Q3 and Q4 2026 reporting seasons. | 2026-10-20 | 2027-02-15 | These quarterly reports offer concrete financial performance data and forward-looking statements directly addressing the theme's progress. Strong results and optimistic guidance will validate the investment thesis, demonstrating the ability of constituent companies to capitalize on AI-driven demand and manage operational efficiencies. Infineon, for example, expects to raise its FY2027 data center power guidance in November. | Theme | theme_composer | ON, WOLF, POWI, NVTS, TXN, ACLS, XFAB.PA, HPS-A.TO, FPS, 6963.T, AOSL, IFX.XETRA, DIOD, ATKR | 14 | 0.0096 | 1.18 | 0.92 | 1.0 | 1.0393 | 2026-09-12 | False | 1 | 2.6847 | 291.4495 | Theme composer | ||||
| Shipment of large data center orders received shortly after Q3 2025 close, representing 53% of the total Q3 closing backlog, primarily from new Mexico facilities. | over the next 12 to 18 months | 2026-10-24 | 2027-04-24 | These shipments are expected to drive significant revenue growth and demonstrate the effective utilization of expanded capacity, positively impacting financial results and investor confidence. | Ticker | HPS-A.TO (ticker) | HPS-A.TO_788e40cd | 2025-10-24 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Infineon will significantly revise upward its revenue forecast for fiscal year 2027 from power supply solutions for data centers, encompassing both AI and classical data centers. | as part of our quarterly earnings announcement in November | 2026-11-01 | 2026-11-30 | This revision signals stronger-than-expected demand and growth in the high-margin AI power segment, which is a primary growth engine and valuation driver for Infineon, directly impacting future revenue and profitability. | Ticker | IFX.XETRA (ticker) | IFX.XETRA_6a5ed6ad | 2026-08-05 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Extension of the EUR 200 million revolving credit facility by one year. | maturity is scheduled for November this year | 2026-11-01 | 2026-11-30 | This provides X-FAB with additional room for maneuver regarding its financial indebtedness and liquidity, delaying the need for new financing options. | Ticker | XFAB.PA (ticker) | XFAB.PA_f7939667 | 2026-07-30 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Design wins and production ramps for ultra‑high‑voltage 2.3 kV and 3.3 kV SiC modules (management said evaluations with >15 OEMs and accelerated sampling). | significant revenue growth starting in 2027 (design cycles longer) | 2027-01-01 | 2028-12-31 | Large design wins and ramps in grid/energy infrastructure would create meaningful high‑ASP SiC revenue and diversify the company's TAM beyond data centers (bullish); slow adoption or competitive displacement would reduce the longer‑term SAM conversion and delay profitability (bearish). | Ticker | NVTS (ticker) | NVTS_8e251387 | 2026-02-24 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Ramp and transition to 8-inch production with GlobalFoundries and accelerated manufacturing capacity in 2027 (management said GF collaboration will accelerate in 2027). | accelerate in 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 2027-12-31 | A successful 2027 ramp (including transition to 8-inch) is a key enabler of the expected 2027 material revenue inflection and gross margin improvement; failure to ramp on schedule would delay the 2027 revenue/margin thesis and keep unit costs elevated. | Ticker | NVTS (ticker) | NVTS_0a8e3b91 | 2026-02-24 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Completion of Texas Instruments' acquisition of Silicon Labs, subject to necessary regulatory approvals. | first half of 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 2027-06-30 | This strategic transaction is expected to enhance TI's global leadership in embedded wireless connectivity, expand its product portfolio, and leverage its manufacturing capabilities, potentially impacting future revenue growth and competitive positioning. | Ticker | TXN (ticker) | TXN_73eea687 | 2026-04-22 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| Completion of the acquisition of Silicon Labs, subject to necessary regulatory approvals. | first half of 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 2027-06-30 | This transaction enhances TI's global leadership in embedded wireless connectivity, expands its portfolio, and leverages TI's manufacturing and market channels. Successful closure is bullish for TI's long-term strategic positioning. | Ticker | TXN (ticker) | TXN_be188a7c | 2026-04-22 | earnings_transcript | ||||||||||||||
| NVIDIA GTC 2027 conference, where new AI hardware, architectures, and advancements in power delivery solutions are expected to be unveiled, potentially leading to new design wins or partnerships for theme members. | March 14-18, 2027 | 2027-03-14 | 2027-03-18 | NVIDIA is a pivotal player in the AI ecosystem, and its GTC conference sets the technological direction for AI infrastructure. Announcements related to next-generation GPUs and power architectures will directly influence design requirements for wide bandgap semiconductors and power management ICs, offering significant opportunities for companies partnered with NVIDIA or those whose technologies align with future AI power demands. | Theme | theme_composer | ON, NVTS, POWI, IFX.XETRA, WOLF, 6963.T, TXN, AOSL, ACLS, XFAB.PA | 10 | 0.0099 | 1.18 | 1.05 | Conference/Council | 1.2 | 1.4655 | 2026-09-12 | False | 1 | 1.881 | 279.6618 | Theme composer | |||
| The new 385,000 square foot Powertrain Solutions facility in Tijuana is expected to come online. | fourth quarter of fiscal '27 | 2027-06-01 | 2027-08-31 | This significant capacity expansion will increase Powertrain Solutions manufacturing capacity by over 50% and total revenue capacity, enabling Forgent Power Solutions to capture more demand and drive revenue growth. | Ticker | FPS (ticker) | FPS_a01eba5f | 2026-09-15 | earnings_transcript |
Market Commentary
| Date | Type | Comment | Detail | Sentiment | Tickers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Theme Refresh Synthesis | The AI Power '26 theme is experiencing accelerating, supply-limited demand from AI data centers. Companies like Infineon and onsemi are reporting surging AI-related revenue and investing heavily in SiC/GaN capacity. The shift to 800V DC architectures creates significant content opportunities for wide bandgap solutions, with Navitas and Power Integrations securing critical design wins, validating a robust, multi-year growth cycle. | Market Commentary | Bullish | IFX.XETRA, ON, NVTS, POWI, TXN, HPS-A.TO, FPS, ATKR |
| 2026-08-26 | Theme Refresh Synthesis | The AI Power '26 theme is robust, driven by accelerating, supply-limited AI data center demand. Navitas's successful pivot sees AI infrastructure exceeding 1/3 of sales by year-end, while onsemi's AI business is set to more than double. Wolfspeed is diversifying into AI with new 10kV SiC for 800V architectures. Hammond Power Solutions and Texas Instruments also report surging data center revenue, validating the critical, expanding role of wide bandgap solutions and power infrastructure. | Market Commentary | Bullish | IFX.XETRA, ON, WOLF, POWI, NVTS, TXN, HPS-A.TO, ATKR |
| 2026-09-12 | Theme Refresh Synthesis | The AI Power '26 theme is strongly validated by accelerating AI data center demand driving unprecedented growth for wide bandgap solutions. Infineon, onsemi, and Navitas report surging AI revenue, with Navitas's high-power markets growing >50% YoY. Wolfspeed's 10kV SiC and Power Integrations' 1700V GaN are critical for 800V architectures, while Diodes sees increasing content per AI platform. Infrastructure providers like Hammond Power Solutions also benefit from the robust buildout. | Market Commentary | Bullish | IFX.XETRA, ON, WOLF, POWI, NVTS, TXN, HPS-A.TO, DIOD, XFAB.PA |
2 stories tagged to this theme — Narrative Radar (NewsAPI.ai) and TimBot picks.
