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Agentic Utilities '26: Business-to-Agent Ecosystem
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Theme thesis · 5/5 sections · Tickers 4 with notes · 2 pending
Bull / Bear Details has the investment thesis and bull/bear points. Overview is monitoring guidance (hiring, forums, second-order trends, search keywords, Google Trends, datasets).
Bull / Bear DetailsThe 'Agentic Era' is driving a structural shift in digital infrastructure and creating a new Business-to-Agent (B2A) ecosystem. Companies providing essential in
Thesis
The 'Agentic Era' is driving a structural shift in digital infrastructure and creating a new Business-to-Agent (B2A) ecosystem. Companies providing essential infrastructure, specialized services, and governance solutions for autonomous AI agents are poised for significant growth as token consumption and machine-to-machine traffic explode, with the global AI agents market projected to exceed $10.9 billion in 2026.
Bull case
The exponential growth in agentic AI traffic, characterized by 'always-on' connections and a fundamental shift to 'east-west' machine-to-machine communication, is creating unprecedented demand for network infrastructure, edge compute, and data center services. This benefits physical backbone providers, CDNs, and data center REITs, as global agentic-AI M2M traffic is expected to increase significantly by 2034.
A new Business-to-Agent (B2A) ecosystem is emerging, where agents require specialized, 'un-vibecodable' services due to regulatory, operational, or path-dependent moats. This includes agentic payment rails (e.g., stablecoins, micro-transactions), last-mile telephony, and legally compliant digital agreement platforms, creating defensible niches.
The increasing autonomy and ubiquity of AI agents necessitate robust governance, leading to a convergence of observability and security. This drives demand for solutions that monitor agent behavior, manage identities, enforce access controls, and provide real-time threat detection, becoming critical for cost control and risk mitigation.
Bear case
The fast-evolving nature of AI technology poses a risk of rapid commoditization for agentic services and infrastructure. New open-source solutions or advanced frontier models could quickly replicate or displace existing offerings, eroding competitive advantages and challenging the long-term defensibility of some 'utilities.'
The high computational and token consumption costs associated with running autonomous agents, coupled with the need for extensive infrastructure, could challenge the economic viability of agentic workflows for many businesses. If the return on investment doesn't consistently outweigh these significant costs, adoption rates could slow, with over 40% of agentic AI projects predicted to fail by 2027 if proper controls aren't established.
The nascent and powerful nature of agentic AI introduces significant regulatory uncertainty and ethical concerns. Unforeseen government interventions, public backlash over issues like job displacement, privacy, or 'rogue agents,' could lead to restrictive policies or slow down the development and deployment of agentic solutions, especially given the complex and fragmented global regulatory landscape.
Overview
Hiring Trend Watchpoints
Forum Watchlist
- Developer Community — GitHub (OpenClaw, LangChain, AutoGPT, x402 Foundation)High
Developer adoption rates (stars, forks, contributions), new agentic framework releases, discussions on implementation challenges, security vulnerabilities, and emerging use cases.
- Reddit Community — r/singularityMedium
Discussions on the societal implications of autonomous agents, ethical considerations, regulatory debates, and speculative future applications that could drive long-term demand.
- Reddit Community — r/cryptocurrencyMedium
Discussions around stablecoin adoption, new crypto-native payment protocols (x402, MPP, Tempo), agentic wallet development, and the regulatory landscape for digital assets used by AI.
- Industry Forum — Cloudflare Community Forums (Workers, Durable Objects, AI products)High
User feedback on agentic infrastructure performance, new feature requests, discussions on 'Markdown for Agents', and adoption of Cloudflare's B2A services.
- Developer Community — Discord Servers (for specific agent frameworks like LangChain, AutoGPT, etc.)High
Real-time problem-solving, sharing of 'vibecoding' techniques, early identification of popular plugins/skills, and direct developer sentiment on framework usability and limitations.
Second Order Trends
Search Keywords Brand Product
- OpenClaw library
- Akamai Inference Cloud
- Fastly AI Accelerator
- NGINX One
- Equinix Fabric
- ServiceFabric
- Cloudflare Workers
- Cloudflare Durable Objects
- NET dollar
- x402 open standard
- Circle Nanopayments
- PYUSD stablecoin
- Tempo protocol
- Machine Payments Protocol
- MPP
- Stable blockchain
- Bandwidth Realtime API
- Twilio ConversationRelay
- Twilio Conversational Intelligence
- DocuSign Intelligent Agreement Management
- IAM platform
- Palo Alto Chronosphere
- Zscaler Zero Trust Exchange
- Firewall for AI
- AI Audit
- Markdown for Agents
- AgenticOps
- Blue Planet Agentic AI
- Thunder CGN
- HPE Private Cloud AI
Search Keywords Policy Regulatory
- GENIUS Act
- US ESIGN Act
- Uniform Electronic Transactions Act
- UETA
- eIDAS
- FedRAMP certification
- GovRAMP certification
- AI regulation
- Agentic AI governance
Search Keywords Event Phrases
- Agentic Era
- Agentic Utilities
- Business-to-Agent Ecosystem
- AI agent adoption rates
- east-west traffic growth
- Compute Delivery Networks
- pay per crawl
- agent-to-agent marketplaces
- token based compensation AI
- AI agent security
- AI agent observability
- agentic workflow automation
Google Trend Product Category Intent
Google Trend Consumer Intent
Google Trend Macro Policy Terms
Top datasets to track
1. Agentic AI Framework Adoption (e.g., OpenClaw, LangChain GitHub Stars/Downloads) Type: Alternative Data · Provider: GitHub, npm, PyPI Cadence: Daily/Weekly Why it matters: Directly tracks developer interest and adoption of foundational agentic AI technologies, indicating ecosystem growth or decline and the velocity of innovation. Suggested query: OpenClaw GitHub stars, LangChain downloads, AutoGPT adoption trends Confidence: High
2. Agentic AI Token Consumption Volume (e.g., OpenRouter data) Type: Alternative Data · Provider: OpenRouter, large language model providers (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic) Cadence: Daily/Weekly Why it matters: Measures the actual usage and compute intensity of agentic workflows, reflecting real-world deployment, scaling, and the underlying demand for AI compute. Suggested query: OpenRouter token usage agentic, AI agent API calls volume Confidence: High
3. Global Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Traffic Volume & East-West Traffic Share Type: Economic Data · Provider: Cisco, Nokia, industry reports (e.g., Dell'Oro Group, Gartner) Cadence: Quarterly/Annually Why it matters: Provides a macro-level view of the fundamental shift in internet traffic patterns driven by agentic AI, directly impacting network infrastructure and CDN providers. Suggested query: Global M2M traffic forecast, AI agent network east-west traffic growth Confidence: Medium
4. Stablecoin Transaction Volume (Excluding Crypto Exchanges) Type: Alternative Data · Provider: Visa Onchain Analytics, Circle, Tether, PayPal, blockchain analytics firms Cadence: Daily/Weekly Why it matters: Indicates the growth and adoption of agentic payment rails and the broader agentic commerce ecosystem, reflecting real-world economic activity by agents. Suggested query: USDC transaction volume non-exchange, PYUSD circulation growth, x402 transaction volume Confidence: High
5. Enterprise Spending on AI Agent Security & Observability Solutions Type: Company-Level Data · Provider: Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler, SailPoint, Datadog earnings reports/analyst calls, IT spending surveys Cadence: Quarterly Why it matters: Reflects enterprise commitment to securing and managing agentic deployments, a critical factor for sustained adoption and the maturation of the B2A ecosystem. Suggested query: Palo Alto Networks AI security revenue, Zscaler agent governance spend, enterprise AI observability market Confidence: High
Key Metrics
| Metric | Cadence | What It Signals | Update Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Agentic AI Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Traffic Volume (Exabytes/month or % of total WAN traffic) | Annually | Accelerating growth in M2M traffic indicates increasing autonomous agent activity and demand for network infrastructure, signaling a bullish trend for Agentic Utilities. | LLM_Approved |
| Annual Stablecoin Transaction Volume for AI Agent Payments (USD Trillions) | Quarterly/Annually | Significant growth in stablecoin transaction volume for agentic use cases indicates increasing adoption of crypto-native payment rails by AI agents, supporting the B2A ecosystem. | LLM_Approved |
| Share of Non-Human (Agentic) Traffic in Total API Traffic (%) | Annually/Bi-annually | An increasing share of non-human traffic in API calls signifies the growing autonomy and integration of AI agents across digital services, indicating a bullish outlook for API management and security solutions. | LLM_Approved |
Upcoming Catalysts
| Catalyst ID | Estimated Timing | Estimated Date Start | Estimated Date End | Catalyst | Why It Matters | Ticker Or Theme Specific | Transcript Date | Source Type | Catalyst Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRCL_365fcf0a | actively exploring the introduction of a native token on the Arc Network | 2026-02-25 | 2026-09-30 | Circle is actively exploring the possibility of launching a native token on the Arc Network. | This could be an important component for driving utility, incentives, growth, and governance of the Arc Network, potentially increasing its adoption and overall value to Circle. | Ticker | 2025-11-12 | earnings_transcript | CRCL (ticker) |
| CRCL_10d56bea | commercial mainnet launch in 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Circle aims to bring the Arc Network to commercial mainnet launch. | Arc is designed as an enterprise-grade 'economic OS for the Internet' to bring stablecoin finance and real-world economic activity on-chain, and its successful launch could significantly expand Circle's platform and drive mainstream adoption. | Ticker | 2025-11-12 | earnings_transcript | CRCL (ticker) |
| CRCL_82cb4da1 | upcoming launches for flows into Colombia, the European Union, the Philippines, Singapore, the UAE and the United Kingdom | 2025-10-01 | 2026-06-30 | Circle expects upcoming launches for live payment flows through its Circle Payments Network (CPN) into new markets. | This expansion of CPN's global reach could increase transaction volumes and contribute to Circle's high-margin 'other revenues,' strengthening its position in cross-border payments. | Ticker | 2025-11-12 | earnings_transcript | CRCL (ticker) |
| CRCL_ba79a98e | in Congress' market structure bill | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Discussion in US Congress' market structure legislation regarding stablecoin distributors' ability to offer rewards or interest. | The outcome could impact the competitive landscape for stablecoin distribution, potentially influencing user adoption and Circle's distribution costs or revenue sharing models. | Theme | 2025-11-12 | earnings_transcript | CRCL (ticker) |
| CRCL_6d40fdb5 | this year | 2026-03-01 | 2026-12-31 | Commercial Mainnet launch of Arc, Circle's Layer 1 blockchain network. | This is crucial for Circle's 'full-stack' platform vision, designed for AI agentic activity and asset tokenization, and could drive new transaction-based revenue and USDC adoption. A successful launch is bullish, while delays or slow adoption would be bearish. | Ticker | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript | CRCL (ticker) |
| CRCL_b8b154a0 | very close to the finish line right now | 2026-03-01 | 2026-06-30 | U.S. Congress passes the CLARITY Act, a stablecoin regulation bill. | Passage of this act would provide significant regulatory clarity for stablecoins in the U.S., unlocking broader institutional adoption and new applications for blockchains, which is bullish for Circle and the broader crypto industry. | Theme | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript | CRCL (ticker) |
| CRCL_f2f76dfe | still in that exploration | 2026-03-01 | 2027-02-27 | Circle makes a decision regarding the launch and details of a native token for the Arc Network. | A native token could provide stakeholder incentives, governance, security, and utility for the Arc network, potentially creating new value accrual mechanisms for Circle. Favorable details would be bullish, while unfavorable or indefinite delays would be bearish. | Ticker | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript | CRCL (ticker) |
| CRCL_0a4618c6 | expect us to pursue that | 2026-03-01 | 2027-02-27 | Full establishment and launch of Circle's National Trust Bank (First National Digital Currency Bank) after receiving conditional OCC approval. | This will strengthen Circle's custody infrastructure and provide a robust fiduciary, security, and operational apparatus, enhancing trust and potentially expanding on-platform capabilities for market participants, which is bullish for regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. | Ticker | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript | CRCL (ticker) |
| CRCL_910ef2d4 | starting now, really starting now in 2026 | 2026-02-25 | 2027-02-27 | Accelerated adoption of USDC and Arc transaction volume driven by the increasing activity of AI agents in economic functions. | This macro trend could lead to significantly higher money velocity, substantial new demand for USDC and Arc, and new transaction-based revenue streams for Circle. Rapid scaling and integration with Circle's platforms would be bullish. | Theme | 2026-02-25 | earnings_transcript | CRCL (ticker) |
| COIN_8705f668 | next few months | 2026-03-01 | 2026-06-30 | Passage of the CLARITY Act or similar U.S. market structure legislation, specifically regarding regulatory clarity for crypto assets and the allowance of stablecoin rewards. | Regulatory clarity is crucial for broader crypto adoption and Coinbase's business, potentially avoiding protectionism for incumbents and creating a level playing field. The outcome on stablecoin rewards directly impacts the competitiveness of U.S. regulated stablecoins and Coinbase's ability to offer attractive products. | Theme | 2026-02-12 | earnings_transcript | COIN (ticker) |
| COIN_6a35d4a9 | exploring a Base token as well | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Decision and potential launch of a native token for the Base Layer 2 blockchain. | A Base token could significantly incentivize developers and users, drive increased adoption and transaction volume on the Base chain, and potentially create new value for Coinbase. | Ticker | 2026-02-12 | earnings_transcript | COIN (ticker) |
| COIN_a421c866 | working on shipping tokenized equities | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Launch of tokenized equities on Coinbase's Everything Exchange, contingent on achieving regulatory clarity/approval from the SEC. | This represents a major expansion of the Everything Exchange, potentially opening up new, large markets for Coinbase and significantly diversifying its product offerings and revenue streams. | Ticker | 2026-02-12 | earnings_transcript | COIN (ticker) |
| COIN_3aaf80d4 | going forward | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Evolution of DeFi regulations and their specific impact on the development and features (e.g., privacy) of the Base L2 platform. | Regulatory developments in DeFi could shape the permissible functionalities and growth trajectory of Base, influencing its ability to attract developers and users and potentially impacting its competitive position. | Theme | 2026-02-12 | earnings_transcript | COIN (ticker) |
| DOCU_0c8d3a27 | In fiscal 2027 | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | DocuSign's execution of its strategy to reinvest go-to-market efficiencies into R&D to accelerate its roadmap while maintaining non-GAAP operating margins at a similar level to fiscal 2026 (over 30%). | The success of this strategy will impact future product innovation, competitive positioning, and profitability. Failure to maintain margins or accelerate the roadmap could negatively impact investor sentiment and valuation. | Ticker | 2026-03-17 | earnings_transcript | DOCU (ticker) |
| DOCU_276cd010 | In fiscal 2027 | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | Introduction of new IAM SKUs for specific functions, including HR and procurement. | Expanding IAM's functional coverage could broaden its appeal, drive adoption in new departments, and contribute to ARR growth and deeper penetration within existing customer accounts. | Ticker | 2026-03-17 | earnings_transcript | DOCU (ticker) |
| DOCU_ef20da08 | for fiscal 2027 | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | DocuSign's achievement of its full fiscal year 2027 total revenue guidance of $3.484 billion to $3.496 billion. | Meeting or exceeding revenue guidance is crucial for investor confidence and valuation, indicating healthy demand and successful execution of sales strategies. | Ticker | 2026-03-17 | earnings_transcript | DOCU (ticker) |
| DOCU_2f6f34e9 | for fiscal 2027 | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | DocuSign's achievement of its full fiscal year 2027 non-GAAP gross margin guidance of 81.5% to 82.0% and non-GAAP operating margin guidance of 30.0% to 30.5%. | Achieving these profitability targets demonstrates effective cost management and operational efficiency, which are key drivers of shareholder value and investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-03-17 | earnings_transcript | DOCU (ticker) |
| DOCU_6d2490d2 | for fiscal 2027 | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | DocuSign's share buyback activity successfully reducing non-GAAP fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding to the guided range of 190 million to 195 million for fiscal 2027. | A reduction in share count due to buybacks can boost EPS and signal management's confidence in the company's valuation, positively impacting investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-03-17 | earnings_transcript | DOCU (ticker) |
| DOCU_7ffe5e0a | accelerating growth in fiscal 2027 compared to the prior year as our efforts to transform Docusign deliver meaningful results. We continue to expect that our year-over-year growth rate range will be 8.25% to 8.75% or an 8.5% year-over-year increase to over $3.5 billion at the midpoint at the end of Q4 of fiscal 2027. We continue to expect IAM to represent approximately 18% of our total ARR at the end of Q4 of fiscal 2027, driving IAM to over $600 million in ARR by the end of this year. | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | DocuSign expects accelerating Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth in fiscal year 2027 (8.25%-8.75% Y/Y to over $3.5B), with Intelligent Agreement Management (IAM) representing approximately 18% of total ARR (over $600M) by year-end. | This is a core financial target and key indicator of the success of DocuSign's transformation and IAM strategy. Achieving these targets would validate the investment thesis and signal continued growth, while falling short would be bearish. | Ticker | 2026-06-04 | earnings_transcript | DOCU (ticker) |
| DOCU_53d13d38 | full year gross margins to decline slightly year-over-year in fiscal 2027 as we continue and ultimately complete the bulk of our cloud migration investment. | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | DocuSign expects to complete the bulk of its cloud migration investment in fiscal year 2027. | This is a significant operational milestone. While it is expected to cause a slight decline in full-year gross margins in FY27, its completion should improve efficiency and scalability long-term. Bullish if completed on time and within budget, bearish if delayed or costs exceed expectations. | Ticker | 2026-06-04 | earnings_transcript | DOCU (ticker) |
| DOCU_20f9f04b | non-GAAP operating margin to reach 29.7% to 30.2% for Q2 and 30.5% to 31.0% for fiscal 2027, an increase of 0.5% at the midpoint versus prior guidance. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be between 81.5% to 81.7% for Q2, and continue to expect to range between 81.5% to 82.0% for fiscal 2027. | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | DocuSign expects non-GAAP operating margin to reach 30.5% to 31.0% and non-GAAP gross margin to range between 81.5% to 82.0% for fiscal year 2027. | These are key indicators of profitability and operational efficiency. Achieving or exceeding these targets would be bullish, while falling short could negatively impact investor sentiment and valuation. | Ticker | 2026-06-04 | earnings_transcript | DOCU (ticker) |
| DOCU_85270058 | For revenue, we expect $3.490 billion to $3.502 billion for fiscal 2027 or a 9% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | DocuSign expects total revenue to be $3.490 billion to $3.502 billion for fiscal year 2027, representing a 9% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. | This is a key top-line financial target. Achieving or exceeding this guidance would validate the company's growth strategy, while falling short could negatively impact investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-06-04 | earnings_transcript | DOCU (ticker) |
| DOCU_5af8f566 | We expect non-GAAP fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding of 190 million to 195 million for fiscal 2027, a meaningful reduction from the prior year, as we expect that our buyback activity will be an important driver to more than offsetting dilution. | 2026-02-01 | 2027-01-31 | DocuSign expects non-GAAP fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be 190 million to 195 million for fiscal year 2027, driven by buyback activity offsetting dilution. | A reduction in share count can boost EPS and signals disciplined capital allocation. Achieving this target would be bullish for EPS and shareholder returns, while failure to offset dilution would be bearish. | Ticker | 2026-06-04 | earnings_transcript | DOCU (ticker) |
| TWLO_fc7eecb6 | Full year 2026 | 2026-01-01 | 2026-12-31 | Twilio's actual reported revenue, organic revenue, non-GAAP income from operations, gross profit dollar growth, and free cash flow for the full year 2026 compared to its guidance. | Achieving or exceeding these financial targets, especially the double-digit organic revenue growth orientation and strong profitability, will significantly impact valuation and investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-02-12 | earnings_transcript | TWLO (ticker) |
| TWLO_dcc5d7c3 | gaining traction | 2026-04-26 | 2027-04-26 | Continued acceleration in the adoption and volume of RCS messaging, particularly for marketing-oriented use cases and small businesses. | Strong RCS growth could drive messaging revenue, enhance Twilio's competitive differentiation with rich messaging experiences, and improve customer engagement, positively impacting sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-02-12 | earnings_transcript | TWLO (ticker) |
| TWLO_e2738c93 | today and in the future | 2026-04-26 | 2028-12-31 | Twilio's ability to successfully execute its AI innovation roadmap, deliver memory-driven orchestration and agentic interactions, and establish itself as a foundational infrastructure layer for AI agents. | This is crucial for long-term revenue growth, competitive advantage in the AI era, and solidifying its position within the 'Agentic Utilities' and 'AI-Ready Design' themes, driving significant valuation upside. | Ticker | 2026-02-12 | earnings_transcript | TWLO (ticker) |
| TWLO_b293e1d5 | Q4 '26 earnings call next year | 2027-01-01 | 2027-02-28 | Twilio providing its complete full year 2027 financial guidance during its Q4 2026 earnings call. | This guidance will set market expectations for Twilio's future growth and profitability, influencing long-term valuation and investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-02-12 | earnings_transcript | TWLO (ticker) |
| DOCU_a21733ef | at the end of Q4 of fiscal 2027 | 2027-01-31 | 2027-01-31 | DocuSign's achievement of its fiscal 2027 ARR growth guidance of 8.25% to 8.75%, reaching $3.551 billion at the midpoint. | Achieving or exceeding this accelerated ARR growth would signal successful execution of their IAM strategy and improved retention, positively impacting investor sentiment and valuation. Missing it could have a negative impact. | Ticker | 2026-03-17 | earnings_transcript | DOCU (ticker) |
| DOCU_b1e39db0 | at the end of Q4 fiscal 2027 | 2027-01-31 | 2027-01-31 | DocuSign's IAM platform reaching approximately 18% of total ARR, or over $600 million, by the end of fiscal 2027. | This milestone indicates the successful adoption and monetization of the IAM platform, which is a key growth driver and directly aligns with the 'BS Jobs '26' theme by automating white-collar tasks and the 'Agentic Utilities '26' theme by providing essential services for AI agents. Achieving this target would validate the company's strategic shift and could positively impact investor sentiment. | Ticker | 2026-03-17 | earnings_transcript | DOCU (ticker) |
NotesTranscript Summary
| Date | Type | Comment | Detail | Sentiment | Tickers | IS CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | group_thesis | The transcript confirms the 'Agentic Era' is here, driving a structural shift in internet infrastructure towards 'Compute Delivery Networks' (e.g., AKAM, FSLY) and east-west traffic. It highlights the emergence of a Business-to-Agent (B2A) ecosystem, including agentic payment rails (CRCL, PYPL) and communication (BAND, TWLO). New governance solutions for observability and security (PANW, ZS) are critical as agents proliferate, making 'Agentic AI' a powerful, disruptive investment narrative. | Transcript Summary | Positive | AKAM, FSLY, CRCL, NET, CSCO, CIEN, HPE, ATEN, VRSN, FFIV, EQIX, DLR, VNET, DOCN, RXT, DOCU, BAND, TWLO, PANW, SAIL, ZS, OKTA, COIN, PYPL | False |